Current State

Of
Indian Economy
May
2008

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry

New Delhi
 ----- Recent Trends in Indian Economy -----

Industrial Growth :
The recently released numbers by CSO on Industrial production for 2007-08 were the
lowest in 6 years, and show a significant slowdown with respect to growth over the
previous year. In March 2008 Industry recorded a growth of 3% as against the 14.8%
recorded in the previous year.

It is felt by the business community that a number of fresh global factors coupled with
domestic factors have impacted the industrial growth; running from recession
(slowdown) in the west to rising fuel and commodity prices. Growth for the fiscal 2007-08
also suggests slowdown in the overall production.

In 2007-08, growth numbers for all the three constituents of IIP showed slowdown.
Mining, manufacturing and electricity grew by 3.8%, 2.9% and 3.7% in March 2008 as
against 8.0%, 16.0% and 7.9% posted in the previous year respectively.

Abysmally low growth was observed in use-based classification. Basic, intermediate and capital
goods recorded growths that were way too low as compared to the growths posted in the
previous fiscal.

Consumer goods slipped sharply entering the negative territory posting a negative 0.1%
growth compared to 15.8% growth in the previous year.

Growth for beverages and tobacco, jute products, wood products, leather items and basic
chemicals in 2007-08 surpassed that of the previous year while for the rest of the sector growth
remained either subdued or negative. And for the month of March 2007-08, growths of
particularly three products, beverages and tobacco, jute products and leather products
represented speed up in production while that of metal products, textiles and transport turned
negative.

Core Infrastructure Industries:

In March 2008, core infrastructure industries recorded a growth of 9.6%, marginally
lower than the growth of 10.5 % posted in the previous year. During the month we saw
growth in finished steel and cement surpass the growths posted in the same month of
previous year.

Growth comparison between 2007-08 and growth in the previous year shows
deceleration in overall infrastructure industries in 2007-08 compared to the last. It was
only in the case of coal where production exceed that of the previous year.

Telecommunications:
Falling call charges are bringing 7 million connections on an average every month to the
mobile phone network. Total phone connection registered crossed 300 million with

1
mobile phone subscription surpassing 250 million. In 2007-08 net mobile phone
additions were only 5 million connections short of 100 million. The fixed line connection
however dropped by over a million in a year’s time.

Inflation Trends :
The yearly WPI based inflation averaged for the year 2007-08 eased to 4.7 % , well
below the targeted inflation rate of 5-5.5% for 2007-08 compared to the average 5.4%
recorded in 2006-07.

Inflation stood at 7.4% in the last week of March 2008 compared with 5.9% a year ago. It
has been seen that measures by the government brought wholesale price rise near 3%
in the middle of the year, 2007-08 from 6% in the beginning but inflation was observed to
rise by the year end. High inflation was mainly on account of rising prices of food articles;
dearer fuel prices and rise in the prices of some manufactured items.

The recent weekly price rise released for the week ending 3rd May 08 shows overall
price index touch 7.83 %. In the recent policy stance some measures have addressed
the causes of rising inflation, which will gradually show its effect on the inflation.

Monetary Indicators:
M3, money supply for the year 2007-08 rises by 20.3% (calculated over March end 2007
to March 2008) as against 21.3% in the previous year. Growth in the net bank credit to
the government is seen to decline to 1.1% compared to 8.1% growth recorded
previously. Growth in borrowing by the commercial sector was seen to slow to 20% vis-
à-vis 25% growth seen in the previous year. The high forex inflows and valuation in the
currencies have resulted into high accumulation of net foreign exchange assets of
banks, resulting into a 38% rise over 25.7% in the previous year.

There has been a slight drop to 20.1% in the previous fiscal in the non-monetary
liabilities of the banks from 22.4% in the 2006-07. The RBI policy twists to encourage
deposits was seen to have an impact as deposits swelled by almost the same rate as
recorded in the previous year. Investments in the government and other securities too
received attention representing 22.9% rise over the increase of 10.3% in the previous
year.

High interest rates however seem to discourage credit off take. Total credit off take of
SCB grew by 21% in 2007-08 compared to 28% a year before, fully diverted to non-food
items.

Fiscal Trends:
Revenue collections from tax sources up to February 2008 stood at Rs 466163 crore growing at
a low 26% than the rate of tax collection in the previous year . Corporation tax mopped Rs
139506 (30 % of the total tax collected) collected at a rate of 37%. Revenue received from the
income tax sources spiked by 42.4% compared to 30% recorded in the previous year.
Cumulative growth in revenue up to February 2008 from customs slipped to 19% compared to
34% growth posted in the previous year. A slightly higher increase in excise was seen than what
was recorded in the previous year.

2
Stock Market Trends:
The four-month-old gradual meltdown in the Indian stock market is due to the gloom sensed in
the western markets. The blow was also seen to hit the other Asian markets. Series of events
like the sub prime crisis surfaced in September 2007 and followed by a recession in the US and
European markets have impacted the index to fall beyond any quick repair. However favorable
strong domestic indicators have recently overshadowed the global factors making the domestic
stock market indices climb up.

Foreign Trade:
Indian merchandise exports fell short by USD 4.5 billion from the target set for the year
2007-08. Cumulatively there has been an increase in merchandise exports by 23% in
2007-08 over the previous year. Import bill in US dollar terms increased by 27% in 2007-
08 touching USD 235 billion. Trade deficit widened from USD 60 billion to USD 80 billion.

Growth in merchandise exports (in USD terms) of important products to developed

nations was observed to suffer a slowdown while exports to developing nations
accelerated. Main items for exports that exceeded the growths in the previous year were
agricultural products (rice), ores and minerals and gems and jewelry.

Growth in non-bulk imports increased faster compared to that of last year where as
growth of bulk items was seen to slow down.

Foreign Exchange Reserves:

Foreign exchange reserves surpassed the USD 300 billion mark in February 2008 and
crossed USD 310 billion in the successive month. Most of the reserve money, more than
90 percent has been in the form of foreign currency assets and stood at 299 billion
expressed in USD terms. In the first week of April 2008 foreign currency assets crossed
USD 300 billon mark and Gold position was seen to widen to USD 10 billion. Reserve
tranche position in the IMF increased to USD 490 million in April 2008 from USD 427
million in the previous month of the year.

Capital Inflows:
Total foreign investment inflows touched USD 60 billon in 2007-08, where direct investment
attracted 50 percent of the total investment and the rest was received as portfolio investments.
Foreign direct investment inflows received in 2007-08 were USD 7 billion in excess of direct
inflows received in the previous year.

Trends in the Exchange Rates:

Indian Rupee against the USD turned weak, strongly favoring the Indian exports and
raising the import bill. Indian Rupee is heading towards Rs 44/ USD level . It touched Rs
43.15 in May 2008 and gradually began to trade weak at Rs 40 from the third week of
April 2008 . From January to May 22nd Rupee depreciated by 7% as against the US
dollar. Rupee ro was also seen to pick up from Rs 57/ Euro in January 2008 to Rs 68/
Euro in May 2008, weakening by 11%.

3
 LIST OF TABLES

Table-1.1 GDP by industry 5

Table-2.1 Growth in six core infrastructure industries-1 6

Table-2.2 Growth in six core infrastructure industries-2 6

Table-3.1 Growth of telecommunication network 7

Table-4.1 Monthly trends in Wholesale Price Index: 1-.9 8

Table-4.10 Monthly trends in consumer prices 8

Table-5.1 Monetary indicators 9

Table-6.1 Month trends in major stock market indices 13

Table-7.1 Trends in tax collections of central government 14

Table-7.2 Trends in central government finances 15

Table-8.1 Monthly trends in growth of merchandize trade 16

Table-9.1 Monthly trends in foreign investments 17

Table-10.1 Monthly trends in foreign exchange reserves 18

Table-11.1 Monthly trends in exchange rate of Rupee 19

4
1. Industrial Growth :

1.1: Growth Of Industry: Recent Trends (in percentage)

March March
Weights
2006-07 2007-08
Industry 100 14.8 3.0
Mining 10.2 8.0 3.8
Manufacturing 79.4 16.0 2.9
Electricity 10.5 7.9 3.7
Use Based Classification
Basic 35.6 11.1 3.1
Intermediate 26.5 15.3 3.5
Capital 9.3 18.1 8.6
Consumer Goods 28.7 15.8 -0.1
Consumer non Durables 23.3 20.2 0.6
Consumer Durables 5.4 3.8 -2.1

16 industry sectors
Food Products 9.1 27.5 0.1
Beverages, Tobacco and Related
Products 2.4 3.3 11.0
Cotton Textiles 5.5 20.7 -1.8
Wool, Silk and man-made fibre textiles 2.3 12.3 9.7
Jute and other vegetable fibre
Textiles (except cotton) 0.6 -37.7 62.7
Textile Products (including Wearing
Apparel) 2.5 15.7 -5.5
Wood and Wood Products; Furniture
and Fixtures 2.7 114.1 -5.8
Paper & Paper Products and Printing,
Publishing & Allied Industries 2.6 10.3 2.7
Leather and Leather & Fur Products 1.1 -7.9 12.7
Basic Chemicals & Chemical Products
(except products of Petroleum & Coal) 14.0 16.0 1.3
Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum and Coal
Products 5.7 17.9 4.3
Non-Metallic Mineral Products 4.4 10.3 0.1
Basic Metal and Alloy Industries 7.5 23.5 5.7
Metal Products and Parts, except
Machinery and Equipment 2.8 48.0 -25.8
Machinery and Equipment other than
Transport equipment 9.6 13.6 6.0
Transport Equipment and Parts 4.0 13.6 -0.1
Source: Central Statistical Organization

5
2: Core infrastructure industries

Table-2.1: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries (% change)

All infrastructure Crude

Finished steel Cement
industries petroleum
2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007-
07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08
April 7.3 7.4 10.1 8.4 12.2 5.1 -1.8 1.4
May 7.2 8.7 10.7 11.8 6.8 9.4 1.2 -1.6
June 7.7 5.3 10.2 5.6 11.7 5.6 0.2 -0.7
July 10.9 6.3 15.0 7.9 14.0 9.0 4.1 0.9
August 6.6 9.0 9.5 8.5 2.9 16.2 12.0 6.4
September 10.6 6.0 10.6 10.3 16.5 5.0 9.4 -0.7
October 9.9 4.5 10.6 4.8 9.4 7.0 9.3 -0.1
November 9.6 5.3 9.3 5.8 11.8 4.5 9.8 0.3
December 9.0 4.0 10.2 5.1 8.0 3.9 10.7 -1.5
January 8.3 4.2 8.5 5.5 7.2 5.2 4.7 -0.2
February 7.6 8.7 13.5 8.2 5.8 12.4 4.9 2.3
March 10.5 9.6 16.6 21.8 5.5 9.3 3.2 -0.3
April- March 9.2 5.6 13.1 5.1 9.1 8.1 5.6 0.4
Source: Ministry of Industry

Table-2.2: Growth in six-core infrastructure industries (% change)

Petroleum refinery Coal Power

2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 13.1 15.1 3.4 0.5 5.9 8.7
May 12.1 14.9 8.3 0.9 5.1 9.3
June 10.5 9.8 11.8 1.3 4.9 6.8
July 12.6 4.6 9.1 1.1 8.9 7.5
August 12.1 8.2 0.6 8.7 4.1 8.8
September 13.5 6.9 -0.8 6.2 11.5 4.3
October 18.0 2.8 1.9 9.2 9.7 4.2
November 16.4 5.2 4.9 7.7 8.8 5.8
December 10.8 2.0 2.9 8.4 9.1 3.8
January 11.2 5.3 9.9 4.8 8.3 3.3
February 11.3 5.8 6.6 11.7 3.3 9.6
March 13.4 0.0 10.6 9.3 8.0 3.6
April- March 12.5 6.5 5.9 6.0 7.2 6.3
Source: Ministry of Industry

6
3: Telecommunications

Table-3.1 - Growth of the telecommunication network (in million)

Fixed line Cellular mobile phones Total phones

(including WLL fixed) (including WLL mobile)
1996-97 14.5 0.3 14.9
1997-98 17.8(3.3) 0.9(0.5) 18.7(3.8)
1998-99 21.6(3.8) 1.2(0.3) 22.8(4.2)
1999-00 26.8(5.2) 1.9(0.7) 28.7(5.8)
2000-01 33.0(6.2) 3.6(1.7) 36.6(7.9)
2001-02 39.1(6.2) 6.4(2.9) 45.6(9.0)
2002-03 41.5(2.4) 13.0(6.6) 54.5(8.9)
2003-04 42.6(1.1) 33.6(20.6) 76.2(21.7)
2004-05 45.9(3.3) 52.2(18.6) 98.1(21.9)
2005-06 49.7(3.8) 90.0(37.8) 139.8(41.7)
2006-07 40.71(-9.0) 166.0(76.0) 206.8(67.0)
2007-08
( upto March) 39.42(-1.28) 261.09(95.09) 300.51(93.71)
Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India

1
WLL subscribers of all the service providers are now counted as mobile subscribers by TRAI

7
4. Inflation Trends

Table-4.1. Monthly trends in Wholesale price index- monthly average (% change)

2007 2008
Feb March Feb March
All Commodities 6.3 6.6 5.3 7.5
I Primary Article 11.4 11.8 7.3 9.7
(A) Food Articles 10.3 10.2 3.3 5.9
(B) Non-Food Articles 13.2 14.8 11.3 13.0
II Fuel Power Light & Lubricants 1.8 1.3 4.9 6.8
III Manufactured Products 6.2 6.7 4.6 6.8
(A) Food Products 3.7 5.0 7.1 8.9
(B) Beverages, Tobacco & Tobacco Products 7.7 9.7 9.3 7.5
(C) Textiles 2.1 1.9 -4.0 -3.3
(D) Wood & Wood Products 4.5 3.6 -0.6 0.1
(E) Paper & Paper Products 7.0 3.4 1.3 1.1
(F) Leather & Leather Products -1.5 2.6 -0.7 -0.3
(G) Rubber & Plastic Products 7.7 9.0 8.1 7.1
(H) Chemicals & Chemical Products 2.6 3.2 7.3 5.9
(I) Non-Metallic Mineral Products 11.3 11.9 8.8 5.8
(J) Basic Metals Alloys & Metals Products 16.4 16.5 3.5 16.9
(K) Machinery & Machine Tools 7.9 8.3 4.1 3.8
(L) Transport Equipment & Parts 1.4 1.9 4.9 4.5
Source: RBI

Table-4.2: Monthly trends in consumer prices (% change)

CPI-IW CPI-UNME CPI-AL CPI-RL

2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007-
07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08
April 5.0 6.7 5.2 7.7 5.6 9.4 5.2 9.1
May 6.3 6.6 5.8 6.8 6.4 8.2 6.4 7.9
June 7.7 5.7 6.5 6.1 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.5
July 6.7 6.5 5.7 6.9 6.3 8.6 5.9 8.0
August 6.3 7.3 6.1 6.4 6.5 8.8 6.2 8.5
September 6.8 6.4 6.6 5.7 7.3 7.9 7.0 7.6
October 7.3 5.5 7.2 5.5 8.4 7.0 8.1 6.7
November 6.3 5.5 6.7 5.1 8.3 6.2 8.0 5.9
December 6.9 5.5 6.9 5.1 8.9 5.9 8.3 5.6
January 6.7 5.5 7.4 5.1 9.5 5.6 8.9 5.9
February 7.6 7.8 9.8 9.5
March 6.7 NA 9.5 9.2
April-January 6.6 6.1 6.3 6.1 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.1

Source: Ministry of Labor, Center for Monitoring Indian Economy

8
5. Monetary Indicators:

Table-5.1: Monetary sector indicators – up to February

Variation in M3 (Rs crore) Variation in M3 (%)

2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 42834 24852 1.6 1.8
May 49734 28328 1.8 0.9
June 55411 78638 2.0 2.4
July 106964 140792 4.0 4.3
August 166054 165806 6.1 5.0
September 223812 264149 8.2 8.0
October 216784 297906 7.9 9.0
November 263713 365815 9.7 11.1
December 286763 392516 10.5 11.9
January 382152 546563 14.0 16.5
February 459429 555364 16.8 16.8
March 582228 682794 21.3 20.6
Variation in net bank credit to Variation in net bank credit
government (Rs crore) to government (%)
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 38413 32071 5.0 3.9
May 27727 25887 3.6 3.1
June 23431 18976 3.1 2.3
July 38221 74427 5.0 8.9
August 34787 40458 4.5 4.8
September 37606 34501 4.9 4.1
October 43203 14584 5.6 1.7
November 43694 25060 5.7 3.0
December 24402 2688 3.2 0.3
January 46972 24888 6.1 3.0
February 58866 17399 7.7 2.1
March 61974 9350 8.1 1.1
Variation in bank credit to Variation in bank credit to
commercial sector (Rs crore) commercial sector (%)

2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08

April -20751 -33982 -1.2 -1.6
May -13066 -39111 -0.8 -1.8
June 14930 -25063 0.9 -1.2
July 44262 -5445 2.6 0.3
August 92023 39877 5.4 1.9
September 159135 108519 9.4 5.1
October 152669 108937 9.0 5.1
November 183151 160039 10.8 7.5
December 237233 207488 14.0 9.8
January 300601 292883 17.9 13.8

9
February 352420 341060 20.8 16.1
March 438101 432664 25.9 20.3
Variation in net foreign exchange Variation in net foreign
assets of banks (Rs crore) exchange assets of banks
(%)
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 46064 -29024 6.3 -3.0
May 68341 -35519 9.4 -3.8
June 58087 -2745 8.0 -0.3
July 74130 27735 10.2 3.0
August 84213 69317 11.6 7.6
September 78283 101485 10.8 11.1
October 75137 153944 10.3 16.9
November 94482 194112 13.0 21.3
December 121444 194985 16.7 21.4
January 129744 267735 17.9 29.3
February 197740 318273 27.2 34.9
March 186985 354704 25.7 38.8
Variation in non-monetary liabilities Variation in non-monetary
of banks (Rs crore) liabilities of banks (%)
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 19859 -54687 4.3 -9.1
May 32289 -77071 6.9 -12.9
June 40117 -87299 8.6 -15.2
July 48810 -43905 10.5 7.7
August 44146 -16138 9.5 -2.8
September 50447 -19238 10.8 3.4
October 53524 -20033 11.5 -3.5
November 56966 13804 12.3 2.4
December 95716 13208 20.6 2.3
January 94615 39506 20.3 6.9
February 148991 121932 32.0 21.3
March 104339 114893 22.4 20.1

Variation of aggregate deposits of Variation in aggregate

SCB (Rs crore) deposits of SCB (%)

2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08

April 25689 5857 1.2 0.2
May 27960 14406 1.3 0.6
June 84185 94550 4.0 3.6
July 94504 162203 4.6 6.2
August 146525 163715 6.9 6.3
September 202662 255988 9.6 9.8
October 177849 269646 8.4 10.3
November 222224 315998 10.5 12.1
December 279096 344338 13.2 13.2
January 317588 481231 15.1 18.4

10
February 381878 472550 18.1 18.1
March 502885 580208 23.8 22.2
Variation in investments of SCB (Rs Variation in investments of
crore) SCB (%)
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 29377 17598 4.1 2.2
May 28381 24897 4.0 3.1
June 37432 57456 5.2 7.3
July 43784 81850 6.1 10.4
August 48807 114420 6.8 14.5
September 33355 117515 4.6 14.9
October 40054 158860 5.6 20.1
November 47429 174105 6.7 22.0
December 25866 133106 3.6 16.8
January 39822 160158 5.8 20.3
February 85298 196420 11.9 24.8
March 74062 181222 10.3 22.9

Variation in total credit of SCB (Rs Variation in total credit of

crore) SCB (%)
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April -21299 -33645 -1.4 -1.7
May -13644 -36672 -0.9 -1.9
June 44406 -14549 2.9 -0.8
July 49266 -11682 3.3 -0.6
August 89137 31159 5.9 1.6
September 154414 96486 10.2 5.0
October 147012 96966 9.8 5.0
November 202421 162149 13.4 8.4
December 262938 219180 17.4 11.4
January 291036 278399 19.2 14.4
February 339932 322300 22.6 16.7
March 424112 417304 28.1 21.6
Variation in food credit of
SCB (Rs crore)

2006-07 2007-08
April -3433 3366
May -1628 -1657
June -2735 -3733
July -4615 -5462
August -4162 -8031
September -7233 -9512
October -4058 -10654
November -2011 -8823
December 1470 -5509
January 2812 -5329
February 4299 -2209
March 5830 -2121

11
 Variation in non-food credit of SCB
(Rs crore)
2005-06 2007-08
April -17867 -37001
May -12016 -35015
June 47141 -10815
July 53880 -6220
August 93300 39190
September 161647 105998
October 151070 107620
November 178191 154803
December 261468 224689
January 286224 283728
February 335633 324509
March 418282 419426
Source: Reserve Bank of India

12
6:Stock Market Trends

Table-6.1: Monthly trends in stock market indices (beginning of month figures)

Date BSE Sensex % Change S&P CNX NIFTY % Change
1.1.05 6679 7.2 2115 7.8
1.2.05 6552 -1.9 2058 -2.7
1.3.05 6651 1.5 2084 1.3
1.4.05 6605 -0.7 2068 -0.8
1.5.05 6195 -6.2 1917 -7.3
1.6.05 6730 8.6 2088 8.9
1.7.05 7210 7.1 2211 5.9
1.8.05 7669 6.4 2318 4.8
1.9.05 7876 2.7 2406 3.8
1.10.05 8492 7.8 2574 6.9
1.11.05 7944 -6.5 2387 -7.3
1.12.05 8944 12.5 2699 4.8
2.01.06 9390 5.0 2835 5.0
1.02.06 9859 5.0 2971 4.8
1.03.06 10566 7.7 3123 5.1
3.04.06 11564 9.4 3473 11.2
1.05.06 12128 4.9 3605 3.8
1.06.06 10071 -17.0 2962 -17.8
3.07.06 10695 6.1 3150 6.3
1.08.06 10751 0.5 3147 -0.1
1.09.06 11778 9.5 3435 9.1
3.10.06 12366 5.0 3569 3.9
1.11.06 13033 5.4 3767 5.5
1.12.06 13844 6.2 3997 6.1
2.01.07 13942 0.7 4007 0.3
1.02.07 14267 2.3 4137 3.2
1.03.07 13159 -7.7 3811 -7.8
2.04.07 12455 -5.3 3633 -4.7
3.05.07 14078 13.0 4150 14.2
1.06.07 14570 3.5 4297 3.5
2.07.07 14664 0.6 4313 0.4
1.08.07 14935 1.8 4345 0.7
3.09.07 15422 3.2 4474 2.9
1.10.07 17328 12.3 5068 13.2
1.11.07 19724 15.7 5866 13.8
1.12.07 19363 -1.8 5762 -1.8
1.01.08 20300 4.8 6144 6.6
1.02.08 18242 -10.1 5317 -13.5
3.03.08 16677 -8.5 4953 -6.8
1.04.08 15626 -6.3 4739 -4.3
2.05.08 17600 12.6 5228 10.3
Source: Reserve Bank of India

13
7: Fiscal Trends

Table-7.1: Trends in cumulative tax collections of central government (%)

Gross tax revenue Corporation tax Income tax

2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 128.3 5.4 238.6 -36.2 40.5 -4.1
May 40.0 35.0 271 231.8 35.4 22.1
June 32.1 28.1 50.0 48.2 29.3 25.6
July 35.0 25.7 80.6 49.3 31.9 32.4
August 32.0 24.1 71.2 46.1 27.3 34.4
September 30.5 24.5 49.2 38.6 24.3 35.3
October 29.8 25.8 47.5 43.0 28.5 34.5
November 31.1 25.2 53.8 41.7 27.8 37.8
December 32.7 27.0 55.2 37.1 27.0 42.7
January 31.5 26.1 50.1 36.6 27.8 42.2
February 29.6 26.7 44.1 37.1 29.9 42.4
March 29.3 41.6 35.4
Customs Excise duties Other taxes
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 17.9 30.1 -42.7 29.6 69.6 29.6
May 25.8 23.1 0.5 13.5 75.1 37.1
June 31.9 19.8 6.6 11.3 81.0 43.5
July 32.7 19.6 6.2 6.3 69.3 32.1
August 33.1 18.6 6.9 4.9 66.4 33.9
September 32.7 15.8 7.4 3.4 63.7 40.2
October 31.3 18.2 7.1 3.8 58.4 37.4
November 33.6 16.6 6.7 4.3 61.7 37.0
December 32.9 16.9 6.8 5.1 64.3 44.3
January 33.4 18.0 7.7 4.8 60.9 39.9
February 34.4 19.1 5.8 6.0 59.7 41.0
March 32.7 5.8 NA
Source: Controller General of Accounts

14
Table-7.2 Trends in central government finances: April-February

Actual to budget estimates

( in Rs crores) Growth (%) YoY
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
Revenue receipts 344050 436389 27.8 26.8
Tax revenue 276932 352356 33.2 27.2
Non tax revenue 67118 84033 9.5 25.2
Non debt capital 4977 42342
-52.9 750.8
receipts
Recovery of loans 4972 4542 -44.7 -8.6
Total receipts 349027 478731 24.8 37.2
Non plan expenditure 334933 412850 11.8 23.3
On revenue account 311675 345686 11.9 10.9
On capital account 23258 67164 9.9 188.8
Plan expenditure 135911 171283 21.0 26.0
On revenue account 114786 145669 28.4 26.9
On capital account 21125 25614 -8.0 21.2
Total expenditure 470844 584133 14.3 24.1
Fiscal deficit 121817 105402 -7.9 -13.5
Revenue deficit 82411 54966 -16.5 -33.3
Primary deficit -4152 -38938 -119.7 -837.8
Source: Controller General of Accounts

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8: Foreign Trade

Table-8.1: Monthly trends in growth of merchandize trade (% change) up to March

Exports Oil imports Non-oil imports Total imports

2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007- 2006- 2007-
07 08 07 08 07 08 07 08
April 27.0 23.0 34.6 11.4 14.5 54.2 20.5 40.6
May 29.6 18.0 27.3 2.9 19.2 41.5 21.6 26.3
June 40.1 14.0 55.6 9.8 9.8 52.2 23.9 36.6
July 40.6 18.5 32.8 8.7 20.4 25.8 42.8 20.4
August 20.5 18.9 27.2 19.5 4.4 39.5 11.6 32.6
September 41.2 19.2 25.8 7.9 24.3 0.1 49.1 2.3
October 19.0 35.6 55.4 14.5 28.9 28.8 39.3 24.2
November 54.8 26.8 48.3 16.7 40.4 35.3 60.6 29.2
December 7.7 16.0 43.3 23.7 31.2 15.3 21.9 18.0
January 5.5 20.4 15.0 60.8 27.3 65.0 23.4 63.5
February 22.8 35.2 -1.8 39.5 39.7 26.3 30.1 30.5
March 8.8 26.5 9.3 76.6 16.5 18.7 14.4 35.2
April-March 23.8 23.0 30.3 35.2 24.7 23.3 29.3 27.0
Source: Ministry of Commerce

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9: Capital Inflows

Table-9.1: Monthly trends in foreign investments ($ million)

Foreign direct Portfolio investments Total foreign

investments investments
2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08 2006-07 2007-08
April 661 1551 3711 1974 4372 3525
May 538 2120 -3334 1852 -2796 3972
June 523 1238 -903 3571 -380 4809
July 1127 705 -309 6713 818 7418
August 619 831 1212 -2747 1831 -1916
September 916 713 1238 7081 2154 7794
October 1698 2027 1755 9564 3453 117591
November 1151 1864 2236 -107 3387 1757
December 5130 1558 -429 5294 4701 6852
January 1921 1767 1602 6739 3523 8506
February 698 5670 2630 -8904 3328 -3234
March 603 4438 -2406 -1600 -1803 2838
April-March 22079 29893 7003 29395 29082 59288
Source: Reserve Bank of India

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10 Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table-10.1: Monthly trends in foreign exchange reserves ($ billion)

2004- % 2005- % 2006- % 2007- %

05 Change 06 Change 07 Change 08 Change
April 118.5 5.5 141.8 0.3 160.6 5.9 204.1 2.5
May 119.4 0.9 138.9 -2.9 164.5 2.4 208.3 2.0
June 119.5 0.1 138.4 -0.5 162.9 -0.9 213.4 2.4
July 118.4 -1.1 140.5 2.1 164.0 0.6 229.3 7.4
August 118.2 -0.2 143.8 3.3 166.4 1.4 228.8 -0.2
September 119.6 1.4 143.0 -0.6 165.3 -0.6 247.7 8.2
October 121.3 1.7 143.7 0.5 167.1 1.1 262.4 5.9
November 128.2 6.9 142.1 -1.1 175.5 5.0 273.5 4.2
December 131.2 3.0 137.2 -3.4 177.2 1.0 275.9 0.8
January 129.5 -1.8 139.5 1.7 180.0 1.6 288.3 4.4
February 135.9 6.4 143.1 2.5 194.6 8.1 301.2 4.4
March 141.5 5.6 151.6 5.9 199.1 2.3 309.7 2.8
Source: Reserve Bank of India

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11 Trends in the Exchange Rates

Graph 1.1: Exchange rate of Rupee (per unit of other currencies).

Re/USD Re/ Euro

48 68
66
46
64
44 62

Re/ Euro
Re/ USD

60
42
58
40
56

38 54
52
36
50
34 48
May-06

Mar-07

May-07

Mar-08

May-08
Nov-06

Nov-07
Feb-07

Feb-08
Dec-06

Dec-07
Apr-06

Jun-06

Jan-08
Aug-06
Sep-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jun-07

Aug-07
Sep-07

Apr-08
Jul-06

Jul-07
Oct-06

Oct-07

For any data requests please write to pal_debashish@ficci.com

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