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Tue Feb 5, 3:53 PM ET

Afghanistan may become failed state as

insurgency spreads: study
by Robin Millard

Afghanistan risks becoming a failed state if NATO troops do not defeat the Taliban,
boosting Islamist extremism worldwide, a study said Tuesday, also warning that the
West lacked resources.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) lamented growing signs that the
insurgency was expanding from the south of Afghanistan into northern provinces,
with rebels learning lessons from Iraq.
Elsewhere in its report "The Military Balance 2008", the London-based think-tank
noted progress by the so-called surge in Iraq, but warned that US and other troops
face being in the country for a generation.
In Afghanistan, the annual study said the NATO-led operation was most at risk where
its technical advantage was reduced, particularly in eastern Afghanistan, the scene of
intense fighting with militia.
"Failure in these actions would risk boosting Islamic extremism (not just in
Afghanistan), would produce a failed state in an area of strategic importance, and
would offer safe haven to terrorist organisations and the narcotics trade.
"It would also undermine the credibility of NATO in its first major out-of-area combat
operation," the study said.
The IISS said that although NATO's 41,000-strong force was bolstering President
Hamid Karzai's fledgling government, the administration "still lacks authority in much
of the country."
The report echoed warnings last week from two US think-tanks which said troop
levels had to be ramped up and major changes had to be implemented urgently.
The IISS report comes a day before US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrives in
Britain for talks on NATO and Afghanistan after calls from both countries for other
alliance members to pull their weight, with Germany and France under the spotlight.
Military commanders in Afghanistan reckon an extra 7,500 troops are necessary.
NATO defence ministers are to meet in Vilnius on Thursday and Friday.
"This is a critical week for the alliance," said Christopher Langton of the IISS.
"There is a big question over countries' ability to sustain operations for what is now
coming to a seventh year, and that is a weakness in NATO which perhaps it had not
forseen when it set out on this venture.
"At the moment (the Afghan government) is being led by the nose. If it is undermined
every time it takes a decision by its international allies, that reduces its authority
across the country," he added.
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IISS director-general John Chipman said: "Lack of coherence bedevils many aspects of
the campaign and further undermines President Karzai's authority."
On Iraq, where US President George W. Bush announced a "surge" of about 30,000
American troops, adding to the 132,000 already in the country a year ago, the IISS
said the security situation remains "highly volatile".
While violence towards military and civilians was "dramatically" down, "criminality,
intra-communal military violence and sectarian strife remain commonplace, and still
undermine political and economic initiatives."
And it warned that "even if (troop) reductions can happen in 2008, it is estimated
that President Bush's successor will inherit a situation whereby at least 100,000
troops are still stationed in Iraq."
IISS expert Dana Allin said: "There is arguably going to be less of a dramatic change
(post-Bush), mainly because the changes have already come.
"The salience of a policy of pre-emptive war has been lowered anyway."
According to the IISS, the Iraqi Army is "a generation away" from being able to
operate free of US logistical support.
But the study's most pressing warning was on Afghanistan, where it said there was a
"gradual proliferation of insurgency and terrorism into Afghanistan's northern
provinces."
Noting an increase in suicide attacks, it warned of signs "not only that the insurgency
was spreading geographically but also that tactical lessons and techniques had
migrated from the insurgency in Iraq."