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Abstract. Complex application domains involve difficult and Danciu, 2008; Danciu and Tselentis, 2007). With the
pattern classification problems. This paper introduces advent of instrumental seismology, the relationship between
a model of MMI attenuation and its dependence on intensity and ground-motion parameters has become a topic
engineering ground motion parameters based on artificial of increasing interest.
neural networks (ANNs) and genetic algorithms (GAs). The Instrumental seismology offers the possibility to transform
ultimate goal of this investigation is to evaluate the target- readily observed data (in this case, intensity) into widely-
region applicability of ground-motion attenuation relations used parameters useful for engineering purposes (in this
developed for a host region based on training an ANN using case, engineering ground-motion measures) and allows
the seismic patterns of the host region. This ANN learning seismologists to evaluate historical earthquakes for which
is based on supervised learning using existing data from no instrumental data are available in order to assess seismic
past earthquakes. The combination of these two learning hazard and damages, correlate different intensity scales, and
procedures (that is, GA and ANN) allows us to introduce rapidly assess the severity of ground shaking.
a new method for pattern recognition in the context of Until recently, macroseismic intensity was related most
seismological applications. The performance of this new frequently to peak ground acceleration (PGA) because of
GA-ANN regression method has been evaluated using a that parameter’s importance for seismic-resistant design.
Greek seismological database with satisfactory results. This is due to the fact that the product of PGA and mass
represents the inertial force loading structures (Krinitzsky
and Chang, 1988). In recent years, research on earthquake
damage prediction has concluded that other ground-motion
1 Introduction characteristics such as duration, frequency, and energy
content all contribute to structural damage.
A common problem encountered in engineering seismology Focusing either on regional or worldwide data, many
involves the difficulty in assessing the damage potential of empirical equations have been proposed to relate a seismic
an earthquake based on the distribution of macroseismic event’s felt intensity with its peak ground velocity (PGV)
intensity. This parameter is subject to interpretation due (Panza et al., 1997; Wald et al., 1999; Wu et al., 2003;
to the wide variation in geological conditions, the response Kaka and Atkinson, 2004, 2007; Atkinson and Kaka, 2007),
of structures, uncertainty related to construction conditions duration of ground motion (Trifunac and Westermo, 1977),
before the earthquake, the type of construction, and response spectra (Kaka and Atkinson, 2007), Fourier spectra
population density. Obviously, a physically-based ground- (Sokolov, 1998, 2002), cumulative absolute velocity (CAV)
related MMI is required for engineering purposes (Tselentis (Cabanas et al., 1997; Kostov, 2005), Arias intensity (Ia )
(Margottini et al., 1992), Housner’s spectrum intensity, and
JMA instrumental intensity (Karim and Yamazaki, 2002).
Correspondence to: G-A. Tselentis
(tselenti@upatras.gr)
Recently, Tselentis and Danciu (2008) derived empirical in the x-direction (IaX ), is calculated as follows:
regression equations for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI)
Zt
and for various ground-motion parameters such as duration, 2
IaX = [aX (t)]2 dt, (1)
CAV, Ia , characteristic intensity, Housner’s spectrum inten- g
sity, and total elastic input energy index. 0
These relationships have been used to generate maps where aX (t) is the acceleration time history in the
of estimated shaking intensities within a few minutes of x direction, and t is the total duration of ground motion.
the event based on recorded peak motions. These maps Spectrum acceleration (Sa ) is the most common-response
provide a rapid visualisation of the extent of expected spectral parameter and is related to spectrum velocity (Sv )
damages following an earthquake and can be used for and spectrum displacement (Sd ) according to the following
emergency response, loss estimation, and the release of expression.
public information through the media. 2π
2π
Another application of engineering ground-motion param- Sa = Sv = ωSv = Sd = ω2 Sd , (2)
T T
eters involves the development of early warning systems.
These systems are low-cost solutions aimed at reducing where T is the undamped natural period of a single-degree-
the seismic risk to vital facilities, such as nuclear power of-freedom (SDOF) oscillator.
plants, pipelines, and high-speed trains. The ground-motion Cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) is defined as the
parameters and the damage potential threshold are essential integral of the absolute value of ground acceleration over the
for these systems. following seismic time-history record.
The objective of the present investigation is to uncover Zt
the hidden, complex and often fuzzy relations between the CAV = |a(t)|dt, (3)
engineering ground-motion parameters and macroseismic 0
intensity and to express these relations in the form of
input/output dependencies. The emergence of neural where |a(t)| is the absolute value of acceleration, and t is
network technology (Haykin, 1999; Bishop, 1996) provides the total duration of ground motion.
valuable insights for addressing the complicated problem of
expression these relations. In this context, neural networks 3 Data set
can be viewed as advanced mathematical models used to
discover complex correlations between physical process The strong-motion records used for the present investigation
variables from a set of perturbed observations. were provided by the European Strong Motion Database
(Ambraseys et al., 2004). More details on these data can
be found in Danciu and Tselentis (2007). The macroseismic
information was available in part from the digital database
2 Engineering seismological parameters of the European strong-motion data; it was also separately
estimated in part from the macroseismic data provided by the
Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens
Because structure and equipment damage is measured (Kalogeras et al., 2004). The general criterion of selecting
according to its inelastic deformation, the potential for the appropriate MMI value was to allocate at each station
earthquake damage depends on the time duration of motion, the nearest MMI values within an uncertainty of one unit to
the energy absorption capacity of the structure or equipment, every station. If more than one MMI value was observed near
the number of strain cycles, and the energy content of the the station location, at an equal distance from the station, the
earthquake. Therefore, for engineering purposes, param- average of the values was used (Tselentis and Danciu, 2008).
eters that incorporate in their definition these previously- Maps of the reported MMI values together with the
mentioned characteristics are more reliable predictors of an strong-motion instrument locations were plotted to show
earthquake’s damage potential than parameters related solely reasonable confidence that the allocated MMI values are
to the amplitude of ground motion (such as peak ground within one unit of the assigned value. This approach provides
acceleration, or PGA), which are often poor indicators of rapid visualisation of the macroseismic distribution in the
structural damage. The most commonly-used engineering area surrounding the recording stations and might be an
ground-motion parameters in addition to PGA and PGV are efficient approach to assigning MMI values to minimise
Arias intensity (Ia ), acceleration response spectrum (Sa ), and errors (Atkinson and Kaka, 2007).
cumulative absolute velocity (CAV). At this preliminary stage of intensity ground-motion
Ia , as defined by Arias (1970), is the total energy per unit investigation, we decided not to disaggregate the soil effect
weight stored by a set of undamped simple oscillators at the because the soft soil subset comprises less than 30% of the
end of ground motion. The Arias intensity for ground motion total data set.
G-A. Tselentis and L. Vladutu: MMI attenuation engineering parameters and neural networks 2529
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Epicentral distribution of earthquakes used in the present
analysis.
Fig. 2 Fig. 2. General topology of a feed-forward ANN with one hidden
The final data set consists of 310 records from layer.
151 earthquakes and is depicted in Fig. 1 and Table 1. Using 23
the recorded strong-motion data for these earthquakes, for
each horizontal component, we compute the previously
mentioned engineering seismological parameters. The
arithmetic average between the two horizontal components
of the independent variables was used for the present
investigation. Fig. 2
4 Artificial neural networks
Fig. 3
An artificial neural network (ANN) is an information- Fig. 3. Two classical nonlinear activation functions.
processing paradigm inspired by the way biological nervous
systems such as the brain process information. The most
basic element of the human brain involves a specific type become weak. The learned form is not directly memorised at
of cell that provides us with the ability to remember, think, a precise place; it corresponds to a particular energy state
and apply previous experiences to our every action. These of the network, which is a particular configuration of the
cells are known as neurons. The power of the brain comes activity of each neuron, across a very large set of possible
from the number of neurons and the multiple connections (or configurations. This configuration is supported by the values
Fig. 2 of the synaptic forces.
synapses) between them.
Figure 2 shows a simplified view of an ANN. It consists Let Yjs represent the output of the j -th neuron at layer s;
s
of a network of simple processing elements (that is, artificial W23i j is the weight connecting the i-th neuron in layer s to the
neurons) that are organised in several layers, including an j -th neuron at layer s-1. The neurons have their activation
input layer that shows the number of neurons linked to the function characterised by a nonlinear function, such as the
dimensionality of the input, one or several hidden layers, and sigmoid function in Fig. 3. This function maps the output to
an output layer. The hidden layer represents network inputs. its input and can be expressed by the following equation.
When one presents the network with a form to be learned, the !
R
neurons simultaneously start a state of activity that causes s
X
s s−1
Yj = f b+ Wj i · Yi (4)
a small modification of the synaptic forces between them. Fig. 4 i=1
This is followed by a quantitative reconfiguration of all of
the synapses: some of them become very strong, while others where b is the bias.
Table 1. Continued.
Table 1. Continued.
This relation, by establishing the input of the first layer s
1wij = −µ ejs Yis−1 + 1wjs i (6)
n n−1
of the network, allows us to gradually calculate the value of
the global output of the network, thus ensuring its forward where µ is the learning rate parameter, which usually takes
propagation. When one compares this output with the values between 0 and 0.5. The quantity ejs is the locale of
desired output, one can calculate the error function, generally the error of the j -th neuron in the s layer. Weights and bias
given by terms are first initialised at random values. In general, there
1 2 are no strict rules for determining the network configuration
e = Y − Ȳ (5)
2 for optimum training and prediction.
One representation of the ANN used in the present
where Y is the desired output, and Ȳ is the obtained output.
The direction in which the weights are updated is given investigation is shown in Fig. 4, which includes the most
by the negative of the gradient of (e) with respect to every commonly-used engineering seismological ground-motion
element of the weight. This process consists in minimising parameters as inputs.
(e) by a gradient descent. Thus, we try to modify the synaptic
weights to reduce (e). This is carried out using the following
relation.
Fig. 4. Topology of the feed-forward k-NN-type ANN used in the present study.
Fig. 4
Table 2. The parameters retained by the GA-ANN selection algorithm and corresponding regression performance (columns 2 and 3).
5.4 Regression
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