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Mortgage rates continue to wander in a fairly tight range, with signs of economic growth coupled with
Week of inflationary concerns balanced against international unrest and increasing oil prices. Retail sales
March 13, posted a full one percent increase last month, with many categories experiencing increases.
2011 The Federal Reserve meets this week to discuss monetary policy. While the Fed is unlikely to change
interest rates, it faces a host of growing issues even as the US economy seems to be gaining some
traction. From the disaster in Japan, to increasing oil prices, to middle east unrest, to debt strain in
Mortgage Europe, the Fed and financial markets will have plenty to consider this week. Mortgage rates are
Market likely to benefit from the global turmoil, as money flows into the safe havens of US Treasuries.
Commentary However, rates may experience some upward pressure if economic news continues to point to a
firming domestic economy. With so many competing pressures, mortgage rates may simply continue
to be constrained to a fairly limited range, unless something unexpected happens.
This Week’s Top Economic Reports and Events 30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

Mortgage Rates
Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact
FOMC Policy Announcement 3/15 Significant 5.00%

While the Fed’s words always weigh heavily on the market, only a 4.50%
significant change in course or outlook is likely to move rates either way. 4.00%
Producer Price Index (core) 3/16 0.5% 0.2% Moderate 3.50%
The wholesale level of the economy continues to absorb price pressures. 3.00%
Another increase will put a slight amount of upward pressure on rates. 12/23 1/6 1/20 2/3 2/17 3/3
12,500.00
Consumer Price Index (core) 3/17 0.2% 0.1% Significant
12,250.00
Dow Jones

Some economists are beginning to predict growing price pressures in the

near term. A 0.3% increase would likely push mortgage rates upward. 12,000.00

Industrial Production 3/17 -0.1% 0.6% Significant 11,750.00

If the manufacturing categories of this month’s IP report show strong 11,500.00

growth, rates will experience some strong upward pressure. 11,250.00

15-Dec 29-Dec 12-Jan 26-Jan 9-Feb 23-Feb 9-Mar
Leading Economic Indicators 3/17 0.1% 0.9% Moderate
9.00
With expectations of an other increase in the LEI, an unexpected dip
Historical Rates

could generate some downward pressure on mortgage rates. 6.00

Mortgage Rate Interest Rates and Indexes

3.00
Trends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.260% 11th D. COFI 1.484%
Short-Term ÎÎ 10 Yr T-Note 3.470% COSI 2.220% 0.00
Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Long-Term ÎÎ 6 Month Libor 0.461% CODI 0.327% 1 Yr CMT MTA COFI
CODI Prime
Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.307%
10 Year Treasury Note Trend
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