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Volume 6, Issue 8 • September 2010

Election 2010
After five weeks in which the GOP led the Democrats on the congressional ballot preference question, Gallup’s August
29–September 5 poll shows the two parties tied at 46 percent among registered voters. Given the GOP’s advantage in
turnout in midterm elections and the enthusiasm levels of Republican voters this year, the party is poised to do well in
November. Other recent polls show a GOP advantage. In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation early September poll,
52 percent say they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, 45 percent a Democrat. The Fox News/Opinion
Dynamics poll from the same dates shows 46 percent of registered voters preferring the Republican candidate to 37 per-
cent for a Democrat. In the late August–early September ABC News/Washington Post poll, the GOP has a 13-point lead on
the generic ballot question among likely voters, 53 to 40 percent. This is the widest GOP margin in this poll since 1981.
The late August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that 49 percent of likely voters preferred a Congress controlled by
Republicans to 40 percent one controlled by the Democrats. Less than two months before Election Day, voters may be
ready to reshuffle the deck, but as the data below show, they are deeply dissatisfied with both parties.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Q: Do you . . . ?


Most of the Democrats in Favor establishing term limits on the
Congress deserve to be re-elected 36% number of terms members of the
Do not 56 U.S. Congress can serve, including
your own senators and representatives 78%
Most of the Republicans in Oppose 16
Congress deserve to be re-elected 33% Note: Sample is registered voters.
Do not 58 Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, September 2010.
Source: ABC/Washington Post, August-September 2010.

Q: Whether or not you agree with them, do you think . . . ? Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you
The Democrats are offering the country to vote to defeat and replace every single member of
a clear direction that’s different from Congress, including your own representative, would
the Republicans 49% you . . . ?
Are not 47 Would vote to defeat and replace every
single member of Congress including
The Republicans are offering the country your own representative 48%
a clear direction that’s different from the Would not 49
Democrats 46% Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.
Are not 47
Source: ABC/Washington Post, August–September 2010.

Enthusiasm: In Gallup’s latest poll that shows the generic ballot even, Republicans continue to maintain a very sub-
stantial enthusiasm edge. In the poll, Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to say they are “very enthusiastic”
about voting this fall, 50 to 25 percent among the registered voter sample. On September 7, the Center for the Study
of the American Electorate released its examination of the 35 states that held statewide primaries before September.
Turnout among Democratic voters was at its lowest level in 80 years. Four million more Republicans than Democrats
have voted in these primaries, the first time this has happened in midterm elections since 1930.

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Views of the Parties
Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures, groups, and countries, and I’d like you to rate your
feelings toward each one as . . . .
Democratic Party Republican Party Tea Party
Very positive 11% 7% 12%
Somewhat positive 25 23 16
Neutral 19 25 19
Somewhat negative 19 22 12
Very negative 24 21 24
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.

Q: When it comes to _____, which party do you think would . . . ?


Democrats would do a better job Republicans would do a better job
46% Protecting the environment 13%
40 Dealing with global warming 13
36 Dealing with energy policy 20
41 Dealing with health care 29
30 Dealing with Social Security 26
33 Getting the country out of recession 30
31 Dealing with the economy 34
27 Dealing with immigration 32
28 Dealing with taxes 35
21 Dealing with Afghanistan 28
24 Reducing the federal deficit 32
24 Protecting strong moral values 32
23 Controlling government spending 37
20 Dealing with the war on terrorism 39
Note: Many respondents chose the responses “both about the same” or “neither”.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.

Q: For each of the following, please tell me whether it . . . ? Q: Do you think the . . . ?
Applies more Republicans in Democrats in
——to the—— Congress would Congress would
Dem. Rep. do a better job do a better job
Party Party of dealing with of dealing with
Cares about the needs of people
Terrorism 55% 31%
like you 46% 39%
Immigration 50 35
Agrees with you on issues you care about 44 46
Federal spending 50 35
Can improve economic conditions 43 46
The economy 49 38
Can bring about the kinds of change
Afghanistan 45 38
the country needs 43 43
Jobs 46 41
Shares your view of the proper size
Corruption in
and power of the federal govt. 40 48
government 38 35
Can manage the government effectively 36 44
Health care 43 44
Can protect the country from terrorism 33 47
The environment 31 54
Is patriotic 29 43
Source: Gallup/USA Today, August 2010.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.

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Congress and the Country
Gallup notes that Congress’s average approval rating this year is 20 percent. That is down, the organization says, from 30 per-
cent in 2009. This year’s average is the lowest in any midterm election since Gallup started asking the question in 1974.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public
Barack Obama has a vision figures, groups and countries, and I’d like you to rate
of where he wants to lead your feelings toward each one as . . .
the country 77% August 2010 January 2009
Nancy Pelosi
Republicans in Congress have a
Positive feelings 21% 26%
vision of where they want to
Negative feelings 46 36
lead the country 54
Harry Reid
Source: CBS, August 2010. Positive feelings 11% 14%
Negative feelings 31 31
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.

The Economy
More polls showed that perceptions of the economy’s health deteriorated this summer.

Q: Thinking about the country’s economic problems, Q: Do you think . . . ?


have we . . . ?
August July
August January The economy is getting better 20% 25%
Pretty much hit the bottom 29% 31% Getting worse 34 26
There is still a ways to go Staying about the same 44 48
before we hit bottom 64 53 Source: CBS, latest that of August 2010.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.

Q: Some people say the policies of former President Q: Do you think it is . . . ?


George W. Bush are mostly to blame for the economic Right for the Obama administration to
difficulties the country is having today. Others say enough continue to blame the Bush adminis-
time has passed for President Barack Obama’s policies to tration for the economy’s condition 18%
take effect and so his policies are mostly to blame. Which
of these positions . . . ?
Time for the Obama adminis-
Comes closer to my view tration to start taking
responsibility 76
The policies of George W. Bush Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, August 2010.
are mostly to blame for economic
difficulties 47%
Enough time has passed for President
Obama’s policies to take effect
and so his policies are mostly to blame 32

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Ideology in America
America remains a center-right country as the data from Gallup (below) and other pollsters show. We look on the next
page at the ideological self-identification of those in college because they often lead change. In recent years, college fresh-
men have been much more likely to call themselves liberal than conservative. Still, most call themselves middle-of-the-
road. Perhaps because of dissatisfaction with the Bush presidency, or perhaps because of excitement about candidate
Obama, the number of self-identified liberals on campus reached a high in 2008 not seen since the early 1970s. On only
one occasion, 1980, did self-identified conservatives outnumber liberals among college freshmen.
As for the parties, Americans see them as mirror images of one another ideologically. In Pew’s sampling of registered
voters, 58 percent describe the Democratic Party as liberal or very liberal, and 56 percent say the GOP is conservative or
very conservative.
There is a growing perception that Obama’s views and positions are too liberal. So, too, is the perception that he listens
more to liberals in his party than conservatives.

The Trends
Q: How would you describe your political views . . . ?

50 National adults
45 Conservative
41
40
35
33
30 Moderate
25
22
20
Liberal
15
10
5
0
Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of June 2010.

(continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Kathleen Nahill, Lucy Zheng.

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(continued from the previous page)

Q: How would characterize your political views?


70
College freshmen
60 Middle-of-the Road

50

40 40

35
Liberal
30

20 20

Conservative
10
Far Left Far Right
3
0 1
1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008
Source: The American Freshman (1970–2008), American Council on Education, University of California, Los Angeles.

The Parties’ Ideologies


Q: In general, how often do you feel . . . ?
The Republican Party’s positions on The Democratic Party’s positions
the issues are too conservative for you on the issues are too liberal for you
Most of the time 29% 41%
Some of the time 41 35
Hardly ever/never 28 21
Note: Sample is registered voters. Twenty-seven percent of Independents said the Republican Party’s positions were too conservative for them
most of the time, while 52 said that was true some of the time. Thirty-nine percent of Independents said Democratic Party positions were too
liberal for them most of the time, while 42 percent said that was true some of the time.
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, August 2010.

Q: Overall, would you describe the views and policies of each of the following as . . .
Republican Party Democratic Party Tea Party movement
Too extreme 39% 43% 47%
Generally mainstream 56 54 43
Note: In four earlier askings of this question, between 33 and 40 percent said the views and policies of the Republican Party were too
extreme. In four earlier askings, between 25 and 33 percent said the views of the Democratic Party were too extreme.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.

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Q: Now thinking about the positions of the parties these days, would you say _____ is . . . ?
Q: In general, how would you describe your political views?
Republican Democratic Tea Party Your political
Party is Party is movement is views are
Very conservative 18% 3% 20% 9%
Conservative 38 9 21 30
Moderate 26 26 7 36
Liberal 9 32 3 16
Very liberal 4 26 2 6
Note: Based on registered voters.
Source: Pew Research Center, June 2010.

Where Voters Place Themselves and the Parties


Democratic Themselves Republican Tea Party
Party Party movement

All Voters

Republicans

Independents

Democrats

Very Liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative Very


Conservative

Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2010.

Barack Obama’s Ideology


Q: Do you think . . . ?
Barack Obama’s positions on the issues are
July 2010 April 2009 November 2008
Too liberal 47% 35% 39%
About right 39 53 53
Too conservative 7 6 3
Note: Sample is registered voters. Not all askings shown.
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, latest that of July 2010.
(continued on the next page)

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Q: In general, would you say that President Obama’s views and proposed programs for the country are . . . ?
August 2010 March 2009
Obama’s views and positions are
Too liberal 46% 36%
Not liberal enough 13 5
Just about right 39 58
Note: Not all points shown. In the August–Septembr ABC News/Washington Post poll, 45 percent said Obama’s views on most issues are too
liberal for them, 9 percent too conservatice, and 45 percent about right.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of August 2010.

Q: Do you . . . ?
Q: (If disapprove) Do you disapprove because you think his policies and actions since he became president have been . . . ?
July 2010 Mid-December Early December
2009 2009
Approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling his job
as President 47% 54% 48%
Disapprove because his policies
and actions have been too liberal 38 34 40
Disapprove because his policies
and actions have not been
liberal enough 9 8 8
Disapprove/unsure why 3 2 2
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of July 2010.

Q: When it comes to national policy, who do you think Barack Obama is listening to . . . ?

55 Obama is listening more to


50
Liberal members of his own party
46
45

40

35 34

30
Moderate members of his party
25

20
Jan-2009

Mar-2009

May-2009

July-2009

Sep-2009

Nov-2009

Jan-2010

Mar-2010

May-2010

July-2010

Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of June 2010.

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Another Way to Segment the Public Ideologically


In 1993, Gallup combined results from the two questions below to come up with a new way of segmenting the public
ideologically. If people responded that they thought government was trying to do too many things and that government
should promote traditional values, they were identified as pure conservatives. If people gave the opposite responses, they
were called pure liberals. People who said government was trying to do too many things and that government should not
promote traditional values were dubbed libertarians, and those who said government should do more and that govern-
ment should promote traditional values were deemed populists. Using this approach, the breakdown for 2009 was 31 per-
cent conservative, 23 percent libertarian, 19 percent populist, and 18 percent pure liberal.
Q: Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses.
Others think that government should do more to solve our country’s problems. Which comes closer to your own view?
Q: Some people think people think the government should promote traditional values in our society. Others think the
government should not favor any particular set of values. Which comes closer to your view?

40

35
Pure Conservative
30 31

25 Libertarian
23
20 19
18
15 Populist

10 Pure Liberal

0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of September 2009.

The Progressive Label


Q: As you may know, some people use the label “progressive” to describe their political views. From what you have
heard or read about the term, do you think . . . ?
National ———Responses of———
Democrats Liberals
“Progressive” describes my
political views 12% 20% 17%
Does not 31 22 17
Unsure 54 57 57
Note: A February Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll asked people which of six groups best understands America and what it stands for.
Twenty-one percent said conservatives did, 17 percent Democrats, 12 percent Republicans, 8 percent liberals, and 5 percent Progressives.
Among Democrats, 7 percent said Progressives best understand America. Thirty-seven percent of Democrats said Democrats did, and 14 per-
cent liberals.
Source: The Gallup Organization, June 2010.

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Tea and Taxes
In most polls, views of the Tea Party have held steady in recent months. Around 15 percent of those surveyed want to let
the tax cuts expire and return rates to their previous levels.
Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS) Q: From what you know, do
you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement, or don’t you have an opinion
either way? (PSRA/Pew) Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the
Tea Party movement, or neither? (Gallup) Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups,
and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative,
or very negative. (NBC/WSJ) Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac) Q: Is your
opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do
you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neither favorable nor unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement? (AP/Gfk)
Q: From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say generally agree, disagree or neither agree nor
disagree on the Tea Party movement’s positions on political issues? (AP/Gfk)
CBS PSRA/Pew* Gallup NBC/WSJ
Supporter/Not Agree/Disagree Supporter/Opponent Positive/Negative
29% 54% (Aug) 28% 24% (Aug) 31% 30% (June) 30% 34% (Aug)
27 56 (July) 24 18 (June) 29 28 (May) 34 31 (June)
20 59 (May) 25 18 (May) 28 26 (March) 31 30 (Late May)
24 14 (March) 29 28 (March)

Quinnipiac Quinnipiac AP/Gfk AP/Gfk


Part of it/Not Fav/Unfav Fav/Unfav Agree/Disagree
12% 80% (Aug/Sept) 30% 31% (Aug/Sept) 31% 34% (Aug) 34% 30% (Aug)
12 81 (July) 33 31 (July) 33 33 (June) 35 27 (Jun)
15 79 (April) 32 31 (April) 29 31 (May) 35 26 (May)
13 80 (March) 28 23 (March) 28 30 (Apr.) 33 26 (Apr)
Note: *The PSRA/Pew responses shown here are based on responses to two questions. The first asked people how much they had heard about
the Tea Party movement, and then those who had heard a lot or a little were asked whether they agreed with it or had no opinion either way.

Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed into law when Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed during George W.
George W. Bush was President are set to expire this year. Bush’s administration lowered taxes by reducing maxi-
Unless a new bill is passed, federal income tax rates will mum income tax rate for all Americans. These tax cuts are
rise to the level they were at when those cuts were enacted. set to expire at the end of 2010, meaning tax rates would
Which of the following statements comes closest to your go back to what they were before the Bush tax cuts.
view . . . ? Congress is currently considering whether to let these
Those tax cuts should continue for tax cuts expire or extend them. Which of the following
all Americans 31% comes closest to your own view on what action Congress
Those tax cuts should continue for families should take . . . ?
that make less than $250,000 a year, but Extend the tax cuts for all Americans 49%
taxes should rise to the previous level for Let the tax cuts expire only for people
families who make more than that amount 51 who earn more than $200,000 a year 31
Taxes should rise to the previous level for Let the tax cuts expire for all Americans 15
all Americans regardless of how much Note: The responses for Democrats were 34, 42, and 21 percent
money they make 18 respectively. For Republicans they were 72, 18, and 8 percent, respec-
tively, and for independents, they were 37, 29, and 18 percent.
Note: The responses for Democrats were 13, 67, and 20 percent,
Source: Ipsos/Reuters, August 2010.
respectively. For Republicans they were 50, 40 and 10 percent,
respectively, and for independents, they were 34, 44, and 21 per-
cent respectively.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.

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Drill Again?
Americans are paying less attention to the Gulf oil spill than they were a few weeks ago.

Q: And, on offshore drilling, Q: As you may know, as a result of the oil Q: In the future, do you think . . . ?
do you . . . ? spill, the federal government banned most BP should be allowed to drill
Support a proposal to offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico for oil in the same area
allow more drilling for through November. Do you think . . . ? of the Gulf in which
oil off the coast of The federal government should the oil spill occurred 49%
the U.S. 57% lift the ban and allow Should not 46
Oppose 49 offshore drilling to resume 47% Source: The Gallup Organization, August
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, Keep the ban on most 2010.
August 2010. offshore drilling in place 46
Source: The Gallup Organization, August 2010.

Poll Potpourri

Obama’s Birth and His Religion


Q: On another subject, where was Barack Obama born, as far as you know? (Those responding “don’t know” where
asked: Is it your best guess that Barack Obama was born in the United States, or in another country?)
Barack Obama was born in the United States 77%
Was not 20
Note: Responses shown here include the response to the initial question and then to the follow-up question for those who responded “don’t
know.” Nine percent of those who thought he was born in another country said there was “solid evidence” that he was born abroad. Fifteen
percent of Democrats, 18 percent of independents, and 31 percent of Republicans said he was not born in the United States.
Source: ABC/Washington Post, April 2010.

Q: Do you think . . . ? Q: Now, thinking about Barack Obama’s religious beliefs . . .


President Obama was born in Do you happen to know what Barack Obama’s religion is?
the United States 58% Is he Christian, Jewish, Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist,
Was not 20 agnostic, or something else?
Don’t know enough 22 ——Barack Obama is a——
Source: CBS News, April 2010. Christian Muslim
July–Aug 2010 34% 18%
Q: Do you think . . . ? March 2009 48 11
President Obama was definitely born Mid-Oct 2008 51 12
in the United States 42% Mid-Sept 48 12
Probably born in the United States 29 June 57 12
Probably born in another country 16 March 47 12
Note: Sixty-four percent of Democrats, 37 percent of Independents, Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of July–August 2010.
and 23 percent of Republicans said he was definitely born in the U.S.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.

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Birthright Citizenship
Q: As you may know, the Constitution says that all children born in the United States are automatically U.S. citizens
regardless of their parents’ status. Would you . . . ?
Natl ———Responses of———
Dems Reps Ind
Favor a constitutional amendment
to prevent children born here from
becoming U.S. citizens unless their
parents are also citizens 49% 3% 58% 50%
Oppose 51 61 40 50
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.

Q: Under current law, any child born in the United States is a citizen of the United States. If an illegal immigrant has a
baby while living in the United States, do you think . . . ?
Natl ———Responses of———
Dems Reps Ind
Child should automatically become
a U.S. citizen 47% 63% 35% 48%
Should not 50 34 63 49
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.

Drinking Marital Bliss?


Gallup has been tracking people’s drinking behavior for Q: Do you think . . . ?
more than 70 years. The first time the pollster asked the I married the right person 95%
question in 1939, 58 percent said they drank compared Did not 5
to 42 percent who said they abstained.
Note: Ninety-seven percent of men and 94 percent of women
Drink liquor, Total said they married the right person.
Source: Marist, August 2010.
wine, or beer abstainer
National response 67% 33%
Q: Do you . . . ?
Selected subgroup responses: Believe in the idea of soul mates,
Postgraduate education 74 26 that is two people who are
High school or less 58 42 destined to be together 66%
Do not 34
$75,000 81 19 Note: Sixty-three percent of men and 69 percent of women
< $20,000 46 54 believed in the idea of soul mates.
Source: Marist, August 2010.
Attend church weekly 54 46
Seldom or never 75 25
Source: The Gallup Organization, July 2010.

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Smoke Gets in Your Eyes Drugs
In 1987, 30 percent said they smoked. Today 22 percent give that Q: Which one of the following . . . ?
response. In the same period, views on the acceptance of smoking in Illegal drugs would you consider experiencing
public places have changed. Fifty-nine percent, up from 17 percent in the effects of, on a onetime basis, if there
1987, want to ban it totally in restaurants. were no harmful physical consequences, no
Q: What is your opinion regarding smoking in public places. First, in criminal charges, and no addiction
____, should they . . . ?
Wouldn’t try any 88%
——————In restaurants—————— LSD 5
2010 1987 Ecstasy 3
Set aside certain areas 36% 74% Heroin 1
Totally ban smoking 59 17 Crystal meth 1
There should be no Crack 0
restrictions 4 8 Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
————————In bars————————
2010 1987 Words
Set aside certain areas 43% 23%
Q: Of the following, which one do you
Totally ban smoking 31 44
think is . . . ?
There should be no
restrictions 23 31 The most overused word in the
English language today
——————In workplaces——————
2010 1987 Like 23%
Set aside certain areas 52% 70% Awesome 21
Totally ban smoking 44 17 Tweet 21
There should be no Organic 6
restrictions 4 11 Hope 14
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of July 2010.

Ghosts
Q: Which one of the following do you
Gay Marriage think is . . . ?
The most likely to actually exist
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Ghosts 33%
Gays and lesbians have a constitutional right U.F.O.’s 30
to get married and have their marriage Vampires 7
recognized by law as valid 49% Loch Ness Monster 7
No 51 Bigfoot 7
Note: Asked of a half sample. None of the above 11
Source: CNN/Opinion Research, August 2010.
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.

Join us for the


AEI Election Watch Breakfast
September 16, 2010
Please register here: http://www.aei.org/event/100296

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