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Election 2010
After five weeks in which the GOP led the Democrats on the congressional ballot preference question, Gallup’s August
29–September 5 poll shows the two parties tied at 46 percent among registered voters. Given the GOP’s advantage in
turnout in midterm elections and the enthusiasm levels of Republican voters this year, the party is poised to do well in
November. Other recent polls show a GOP advantage. In the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation early September poll,
52 percent say they would vote for a Republican candidate for Congress, 45 percent a Democrat. The Fox News/Opinion
Dynamics poll from the same dates shows 46 percent of registered voters preferring the Republican candidate to 37 per-
cent for a Democrat. In the late August–early September ABC News/Washington Post poll, the GOP has a 13-point lead on
the generic ballot question among likely voters, 53 to 40 percent. This is the widest GOP margin in this poll since 1981.
The late August NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that 49 percent of likely voters preferred a Congress controlled by
Republicans to 40 percent one controlled by the Democrats. Less than two months before Election Day, voters may be
ready to reshuffle the deck, but as the data below show, they are deeply dissatisfied with both parties.
Q: Whether or not you agree with them, do you think . . . ? Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you
The Democrats are offering the country to vote to defeat and replace every single member of
a clear direction that’s different from Congress, including your own representative, would
the Republicans 49% you . . . ?
Are not 47 Would vote to defeat and replace every
single member of Congress including
The Republicans are offering the country your own representative 48%
a clear direction that’s different from the Would not 49
Democrats 46% Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, August 2010.
Are not 47
Source: ABC/Washington Post, August–September 2010.
Enthusiasm: In Gallup’s latest poll that shows the generic ballot even, Republicans continue to maintain a very sub-
stantial enthusiasm edge. In the poll, Republicans were twice as likely as Democrats to say they are “very enthusiastic”
about voting this fall, 50 to 25 percent among the registered voter sample. On September 7, the Center for the Study
of the American Electorate released its examination of the 35 states that held statewide primaries before September.
Turnout among Democratic voters was at its lowest level in 80 years. Four million more Republicans than Democrats
have voted in these primaries, the first time this has happened in midterm elections since 1930.
Q: For each of the following, please tell me whether it . . . ? Q: Do you think the . . . ?
Applies more Republicans in Democrats in
——to the—— Congress would Congress would
Dem. Rep. do a better job do a better job
Party Party of dealing with of dealing with
Cares about the needs of people
Terrorism 55% 31%
like you 46% 39%
Immigration 50 35
Agrees with you on issues you care about 44 46
Federal spending 50 35
Can improve economic conditions 43 46
The economy 49 38
Can bring about the kinds of change
Afghanistan 45 38
the country needs 43 43
Jobs 46 41
Shares your view of the proper size
Corruption in
and power of the federal govt. 40 48
government 38 35
Can manage the government effectively 36 44
Health care 43 44
Can protect the country from terrorism 33 47
The environment 31 54
Is patriotic 29 43
Source: Gallup/USA Today, August 2010.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.
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Congress and the Country
Gallup notes that Congress’s average approval rating this year is 20 percent. That is down, the organization says, from 30 per-
cent in 2009. This year’s average is the lowest in any midterm election since Gallup started asking the question in 1974.
Q: Do you think . . . ? Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public
Barack Obama has a vision figures, groups and countries, and I’d like you to rate
of where he wants to lead your feelings toward each one as . . .
the country 77% August 2010 January 2009
Nancy Pelosi
Republicans in Congress have a
Positive feelings 21% 26%
vision of where they want to
Negative feelings 46 36
lead the country 54
Harry Reid
Source: CBS, August 2010. Positive feelings 11% 14%
Negative feelings 31 31
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of August 2010.
The Economy
More polls showed that perceptions of the economy’s health deteriorated this summer.
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Ideology in America
America remains a center-right country as the data from Gallup (below) and other pollsters show. We look on the next
page at the ideological self-identification of those in college because they often lead change. In recent years, college fresh-
men have been much more likely to call themselves liberal than conservative. Still, most call themselves middle-of-the-
road. Perhaps because of dissatisfaction with the Bush presidency, or perhaps because of excitement about candidate
Obama, the number of self-identified liberals on campus reached a high in 2008 not seen since the early 1970s. On only
one occasion, 1980, did self-identified conservatives outnumber liberals among college freshmen.
As for the parties, Americans see them as mirror images of one another ideologically. In Pew’s sampling of registered
voters, 58 percent describe the Democratic Party as liberal or very liberal, and 56 percent say the GOP is conservative or
very conservative.
There is a growing perception that Obama’s views and positions are too liberal. So, too, is the perception that he listens
more to liberals in his party than conservatives.
The Trends
Q: How would you describe your political views . . . ?
50 National adults
45 Conservative
41
40
35
33
30 Moderate
25
22
20
Liberal
15
10
5
0
Jan-2009 Apr-2009 Jul-2009 Oct-2009 Jan-2010 Apr-2010
Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Kathleen Nahill, Lucy Zheng.
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(continued from the previous page)
50
40 40
35
Liberal
30
20 20
Conservative
10
Far Left Far Right
3
0 1
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: The American Freshman (1970–2008), American Council on Education, University of California, Los Angeles.
Q: Overall, would you describe the views and policies of each of the following as . . .
Republican Party Democratic Party Tea Party movement
Too extreme 39% 43% 47%
Generally mainstream 56 54 43
Note: In four earlier askings of this question, between 33 and 40 percent said the views and policies of the Republican Party were too
extreme. In four earlier askings, between 25 and 33 percent said the views of the Democratic Party were too extreme.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: Now thinking about the positions of the parties these days, would you say _____ is . . . ?
Q: In general, how would you describe your political views?
Republican Democratic Tea Party Your political
Party is Party is movement is views are
Very conservative 18% 3% 20% 9%
Conservative 38 9 21 30
Moderate 26 26 7 36
Liberal 9 32 3 16
Very liberal 4 26 2 6
Note: Based on registered voters.
Source: Pew Research Center, June 2010.
All Voters
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: In general, would you say that President Obama’s views and proposed programs for the country are . . . ?
August 2010 March 2009
Obama’s views and positions are
Too liberal 46% 36%
Not liberal enough 13 5
Just about right 39 58
Note: Not all points shown. In the August–Septembr ABC News/Washington Post poll, 45 percent said Obama’s views on most issues are too
liberal for them, 9 percent too conservatice, and 45 percent about right.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of August 2010.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Q: (If disapprove) Do you disapprove because you think his policies and actions since he became president have been . . . ?
July 2010 Mid-December Early December
2009 2009
Approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling his job
as President 47% 54% 48%
Disapprove because his policies
and actions have been too liberal 38 34 40
Disapprove because his policies
and actions have not been
liberal enough 9 8 8
Disapprove/unsure why 3 2 2
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of July 2010.
Q: When it comes to national policy, who do you think Barack Obama is listening to . . . ?
40
35 34
30
Moderate members of his party
25
20
Jan-2009
Mar-2009
May-2009
July-2009
Sep-2009
Nov-2009
Jan-2010
Mar-2010
May-2010
July-2010
40
35
Pure Conservative
30 31
25 Libertarian
23
20 19
18
15 Populist
10 Pure Liberal
0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Tea and Taxes
In most polls, views of the Tea Party have held steady in recent months. Around 15 percent of those surveyed want to let
the tax cuts expire and return rates to their previous levels.
Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS) Q: From what you know, do
you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement, or don’t you have an opinion
either way? (PSRA/Pew) Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the
Tea Party movement, or neither? (Gallup) Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups,
and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative,
or very negative. (NBC/WSJ) Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac) Q: Is your
opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac) Q: Do
you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neither favorable nor unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement? (AP/Gfk)
Q: From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say generally agree, disagree or neither agree nor
disagree on the Tea Party movement’s positions on political issues? (AP/Gfk)
CBS PSRA/Pew* Gallup NBC/WSJ
Supporter/Not Agree/Disagree Supporter/Opponent Positive/Negative
29% 54% (Aug) 28% 24% (Aug) 31% 30% (June) 30% 34% (Aug)
27 56 (July) 24 18 (June) 29 28 (May) 34 31 (June)
20 59 (May) 25 18 (May) 28 26 (March) 31 30 (Late May)
24 14 (March) 29 28 (March)
Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed into law when Q: As you may know, the tax cuts passed during George W.
George W. Bush was President are set to expire this year. Bush’s administration lowered taxes by reducing maxi-
Unless a new bill is passed, federal income tax rates will mum income tax rate for all Americans. These tax cuts are
rise to the level they were at when those cuts were enacted. set to expire at the end of 2010, meaning tax rates would
Which of the following statements comes closest to your go back to what they were before the Bush tax cuts.
view . . . ? Congress is currently considering whether to let these
Those tax cuts should continue for tax cuts expire or extend them. Which of the following
all Americans 31% comes closest to your own view on what action Congress
Those tax cuts should continue for families should take . . . ?
that make less than $250,000 a year, but Extend the tax cuts for all Americans 49%
taxes should rise to the previous level for Let the tax cuts expire only for people
families who make more than that amount 51 who earn more than $200,000 a year 31
Taxes should rise to the previous level for Let the tax cuts expire for all Americans 15
all Americans regardless of how much Note: The responses for Democrats were 34, 42, and 21 percent
money they make 18 respectively. For Republicans they were 72, 18, and 8 percent, respec-
tively, and for independents, they were 37, 29, and 18 percent.
Note: The responses for Democrats were 13, 67, and 20 percent,
Source: Ipsos/Reuters, August 2010.
respectively. For Republicans they were 50, 40 and 10 percent,
respectively, and for independents, they were 34, 44, and 21 per-
cent respectively.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.
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Drill Again?
Americans are paying less attention to the Gulf oil spill than they were a few weeks ago.
Q: And, on offshore drilling, Q: As you may know, as a result of the oil Q: In the future, do you think . . . ?
do you . . . ? spill, the federal government banned most BP should be allowed to drill
Support a proposal to offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico for oil in the same area
allow more drilling for through November. Do you think . . . ? of the Gulf in which
oil off the coast of The federal government should the oil spill occurred 49%
the U.S. 57% lift the ban and allow Should not 46
Oppose 49 offshore drilling to resume 47% Source: The Gallup Organization, August
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, Keep the ban on most 2010.
August 2010. offshore drilling in place 46
Source: The Gallup Organization, August 2010.
Poll Potpourri
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Birthright Citizenship
Q: As you may know, the Constitution says that all children born in the United States are automatically U.S. citizens
regardless of their parents’ status. Would you . . . ?
Natl ———Responses of———
Dems Reps Ind
Favor a constitutional amendment
to prevent children born here from
becoming U.S. citizens unless their
parents are also citizens 49% 3% 58% 50%
Oppose 51 61 40 50
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.
Q: Under current law, any child born in the United States is a citizen of the United States. If an illegal immigrant has a
baby while living in the United States, do you think . . . ?
Natl ———Responses of———
Dems Reps Ind
Child should automatically become
a U.S. citizen 47% 63% 35% 48%
Should not 50 34 63 49
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, August 2010.
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Smoke Gets in Your Eyes Drugs
In 1987, 30 percent said they smoked. Today 22 percent give that Q: Which one of the following . . . ?
response. In the same period, views on the acceptance of smoking in Illegal drugs would you consider experiencing
public places have changed. Fifty-nine percent, up from 17 percent in the effects of, on a onetime basis, if there
1987, want to ban it totally in restaurants. were no harmful physical consequences, no
Q: What is your opinion regarding smoking in public places. First, in criminal charges, and no addiction
____, should they . . . ?
Wouldn’t try any 88%
——————In restaurants—————— LSD 5
2010 1987 Ecstasy 3
Set aside certain areas 36% 74% Heroin 1
Totally ban smoking 59 17 Crystal meth 1
There should be no Crack 0
restrictions 4 8 Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
————————In bars————————
2010 1987 Words
Set aside certain areas 43% 23%
Q: Of the following, which one do you
Totally ban smoking 31 44
think is . . . ?
There should be no
restrictions 23 31 The most overused word in the
English language today
——————In workplaces——————
2010 1987 Like 23%
Set aside certain areas 52% 70% Awesome 21
Totally ban smoking 44 17 Tweet 21
There should be no Organic 6
restrictions 4 11 Hope 14
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of July 2010.
Ghosts
Q: Which one of the following do you
Gay Marriage think is . . . ?
The most likely to actually exist
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Ghosts 33%
Gays and lesbians have a constitutional right U.F.O.’s 30
to get married and have their marriage Vampires 7
recognized by law as valid 49% Loch Ness Monster 7
No 51 Bigfoot 7
Note: Asked of a half sample. None of the above 11
Source: CNN/Opinion Research, August 2010.
Source: CBS/60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, August 2010.
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