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Positive Negative
Newt Gingrich (Mar. 1995) 27% 41%
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Health Care at Year One
One year ago, on March 23, President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Most pollsters have
continued to ask about people’s reaction to it, albeit not as often as they did during the heat of the debate. Comparing
March 2010 polls and polls taken thus far this year shows that opinion of the bill has not improved significantly. Responses
to most pollsters’ questions seem to move in a narrow range. Here’s a sampling from a few of the major pollsters:
Early 2011 45 50 33 51 41 48 39 39
Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of January 2011; CBS/New York Times, latest that of February 2011; Pew Research Center, latest
that of January 2011; and NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of January 2011.
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The Union Label
The next few pages of this issue of AEI’s Political Report look at what we have learned about views of unions nationally
and in Wisconsin. For 75 years, Gallup has asked Americans whether they approve or disapprove of unions. In the Gallup
(and Pew) polls, opinions became sharply more negative in 2009 and 2010 with a slight recovery in early 2011. Recent
negative attitudes have coincided with troubled economic times. Only 24 percent of Americans think labor unions have a
positive impact on American companies’ ability to compete globally.
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of . . . ? (Gallup)
Q: Just in general is your overall opinion of . . . ? (Pew)
70
60
Approve of 52%
Labor Unions
50
(Gallup)
46%
40 47%
Favorable Opinion
of Labor Unions
30 (Pew)
20
10
0
July 1936
July 1942
July 1948
July 1954
July 1960
July 1966
July 1972
July 1978
July 1984
July 1990
July 1996
July 2002
Source: Gallup, latest that of August 2010; PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2011.
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures, groups, organizations and countries, and I’d like you
to rate your feelings toward each one as . . . ?
Labor Teacher Federal gov. State and
unions unions Teachers employees local employees
Positive feelings 38% 47% 73% 42% 47%
Neutral 22 19 15 34 27
Negative 36 30 10 22 24
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, February 2011.
Q: As you may know, some labor unions represent people who are employed by private companies, while others repre-
sent people who are employed by state or local governments. Do you have a generally . . . ?
Favorable opinion of . . . Unfavorable opinion of . . .
Unions that represent workers
for private companies 48% 37%
Union Households
80
60
60%
Democrat for 59%
50 President
39%
40
37%
30
Republican for House
Republican for
20 President
10
0
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
Source: AEI compilation. Data from 1952 through 1974 are from Gallup’s final pre-election poll each election year. All other data are from the
major network/Associated Press exit polls.
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The Verdict on Public Employees
The polls suggest that majorities of Americans support making public employees pay more for their benefits and retirement
programs. It is not clear that Americans make a distinction between public and private sector unions when they think
about collective bargaining. Most polls show more support than opposition for public employee collective bargaining.
Q: In general, do you think . . . ?
—————Responses of——————
Union
National Rep. Dem. Ind. households
Public employees are paid too much 42% 59% 31% 42% 37%
Too little 15 6 24 13 22
About right 35 28 38 37 34
Source: Quinnipiac, February 2011.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Public employees receive better compensation
[than] comparable private sector employees 43%
Worse 21
About the same 27
Source: Selzer & Company/Bloomberg, March 2011.
Q: Do you think . . . ?
Public employees who belong to a union
and work for state government, city
government, or a school district should
have the same right to bargain when it comes
to their health care, pension, and other
benefits as employees who belong to a union
and work for private companies 77%
Should not 19
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, February 2011.
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Q: Let me read you a number of steps that elected officials are considering to deal with state budget deficits that affect
public employees who work for state government, city government, or a school district. For each one, please tell me if
you find this . . .
Acceptable Unacceptable
Require public employees to
contribute more of their pay
for their retirement benefits 68% 29%
Require public employees to
contribute more of their pay for
health care benefits 63 34
Freeze public employees’ salaries
for one year 58 40
Eliminate public employees’ right
to collectively bargain over health
care, pensions, and other benefits
when negotiating a union contract 33 62
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, February 2011.
Q: With states facing budget crunches, several Republican governors across the country are trying to scale back benefits
for state workers. Which of the following positions . . . ?
Comes closest to your view . . .
Public employees enjoy generous Governors are unfairly targeting
benefits that cash-strapped states public employee unions and
can ill afford, and they should be should not seek to balance their
willing to sacrifice to help states budgets by taking away benefits
avoid a budget crisis 46% promised to state workers 49%
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Opinions in Wisconsin
In the 2010 election in Wisconsin, 26 percent of voters were members of union households. They voted for the Democratic
candidate for Governor Tom Barrett. Non-union households voted for Scott Walker, the Republican. The Wisconsin
Policy Research Institute polled Wisconsin residents’ opinions right after the November 2010 election and again in late
February and early March when the controversy about Governor Walker’s plans was most intense. Thirty-five percent
had a negative view of him in the post-election poll. Fifty-three percent did so in the new poll, taken during the heat of
the controversy.
Exit Poll
(Percent of
electorate)
Whites (90%) 43% 55%
Whites with
no college (55%) 40 58
Union HH
Yes (26%) 63 37
No (74%) 43 56
Source: Wisconsin Secretary of State (actual results) and National Exit Poll Consortium for Wisconsin subgroup results.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Some college
Total Whites or less
Have a favorable opinion
of Scott Walker
November 2010 45% 47% 42%
Feb.–Mar. 2011 43 46 49
Unfavorable
November 2010 35% 32% 33%
Feb.–Mar. 2010 53 50 52
Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, latest that of February–March 2011.
Q: Do you think the state budget in Wisconsin—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a . . . ?
State budget in Wisconsin is a big problem 59%
Somewhat of a problem 36
Not a problem 3
Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, February – March 2011.
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(continued from the previous page—Opinions in Wisconsin)
Q: I’m now going to read you a list of people and organizations that have been in the news recently. Please tell me
if you . . .
Have a favorable opinion of Unfavorable
70% Teachers 25%
67 Public employees 25
59 Teachers unions 36
59 Public employee unions 34
Democrats in the
50 state legislature 42
Republicans in the
46 state legislature 46
43 Scott Walker 53
38 Tea Party members 44
Q: Now I’m going to mention some specific parts of the bill. For each, please tell me if this is something you . . .
Favor Oppose
Requiring public employees to contribute
to their own pensions 81% 18%
Limiting most public employees’ ability to
negotiate over non-wage issues in order
to prevent local union affiliates from
obstructing the budgeting process for
local governments 47 50
Stripping most public employees of
their right to collectively bargain over
benefits and working conditions as part
of a ploy to eliminate public employee
unions altogether 32 58
Note: The wording in the second and third items was part of a split-ballot experiment.
Source: The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, latest that of February–March 2011.
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The State of the States
There is widespread agreement in the country and in polls taken in individual states that states are facing very serious
budgetary problems. As is the case nationally, it isn’t clear what people want to do about it. Raising taxes is decidedly
unpopular.
Q: As you may know, some state governments are facing budget problems that have forced them to raise taxes or
reduce spending. What about in your state: Is your state government currently . . . ? Q: (Asked of those who say state is
facing budget problems) Are these budget problems very serious, fairly serious, or not too serious?
Yes, state currently facing budget problems 81%
Very serious 36
Fairly serious 36
Not too serious 8
Q: What is the best way to deal with the budget in your state? Should state lawmakers . . . ?
State lawmakers should mostly focus on . . .
Cutting major programs 19%
Increasing taxes 4
A combination of both 68
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, February 2011.
Q: Thinking now about state government efforts to balance their budgets, please say whether you would . . . ?
Favor Oppose
Reducing or eliminating certain state
programs 65% 32%
Reducing the number of workers on
the state payroll 62 35
Changing state laws to limit the bargaining
power of state employee unions 49 45
Raising state taxes on business 39 58
Raising state income or sales taxes 33 66
Borrowing more money by issuing bonds 30 66
Source: Gallup, March 2011.
Q: As you may know, many U.S. state governments are facing large budget deficits this year. Please say whether you . . .
the following ways state officials could reduce their budget deficits?
Favor Oppose
Reducing or eliminating
certain state programs 47% 48%
Reducing pay or benefits the state
provides for government workers 44 53
Increasing state sales, income, or
other taxes 27 71
Source: Gallup/USA Today, February 2011.
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Q: How would you rate the job performance of . . . ?
Excellent/good Fair/poor
Your state government when it comes
to balancing your state’s budget 22% 70%
Your state’s governor 42 57
Your state’s legislature 23 73
Source: Zogby International online poll, February 2010.
Q: As you may know, by law most states must balance their budgets, but many states are now unable to do so. In your
opinion, which is the better way to address this problem?
2011 2010 2003
The federal government should give
more money to states to help them
meet their budgets, even if it means
higher federal deficits 27% 26% 35%
States should take care of this themselves,
either by raising state taxes or cutting
state services 60 58 57
Source: CBS, April 2003; PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of February 2011.
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News about National Public Radio
Sixty-one percent of Americans never listen to NPR while 10 percent tune in regularly. The age profile of NPR’s regular
listeners is similar to the age profile of the country as a whole. Its regular audience is more upscale in terms of education
and income than the general public. It is also more Democratic and more liberal than the population as a whole.
Q: Now I’d like to know how often you watch or listen to certain TV and radio programs. For each that I read, tell me if
you watch or listen to it . . .
Listen to NPR
Regularly 10%
Sometimes 13
Hardly ever 14
Never 61
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, June 2010.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Support cutting off federal
government funding to NPR Oppose
40% Natl. 49%
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Who’s Hot, Who’s Not The Donald
Q: I’d like to get your feelings toward some of our Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several
political leaders and other people who have been in public figures, groups, organizations and countries,
the news. I’ll read the name of a person and I’d like and I’d like you to rate your feelings toward each one
you to rate that person using something called a feeling as . . .
thermometer. You can choose any number between Positive feelings about
0 and 100. The higher the number the warmer or more Donald Trump Neutral Negative
favorable you feel toward that person, the lower the July 1990 14% 28% 49%
number, the colder or less favorable. If we come to a Oct. 1999 14 25 55
person who you haven’t heard enough about to form Dec. 1999 16 28 48
an opinion, you don’t need to rate the person. Just tell May 2004 26 38 29
me and we’ll move on to the next one. Feb. 2011 26 49 29
Mean Percent who Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, February 2011.
thermometer did not know
score enough about
(Of those who the people
knew enough
to rate)
to rate them
The Sheen on Charlie Sheen
Top five We’re not surprised the pollsters have turned their atten-
Michelle Obama 60.1° 4% tion to Charlie Sheen. The CNN/Opinion Research Cor-
President Clinton 59.2 2 poration poll shown below suggests that he is one of the
Christopher Christie 57.0 55 least popular figures in America. Hardly anyone thinks
President Obama 56.5 0 he’s “winning,” to use a formulation that he himself uses.
Rudolph Giuliani 52.3 13 A new online Public Policy Poll pits Sheen against Sarah
Palin and Barack Obama. Palin leads Sheen by 49-29 per-
Bottom five cent (although she loses to him among independents) and
Haley Barbour 43.5 65 Obama beats him by 57 to 24 percent. In another question
Newt Gingrich 42.7 17 in the poll, the gap between those who had a favorable and
Sarah Palin 38.2 4 unfavorable opinion of Sheen (57 points) was identical to
Harry Reid 34.8 37 the gap about John Edwards in an earlier poll.
Nancy Pelosi 32.9 15
Q: Please say if you . . .
Source: Quinnipiac, February 2011.
Have a favorable opinion of Charlie Sheen 17%
Unfavorable 69
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