Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 274–278

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, México,

using artificial neural networks
Erasmo Cadenas a, Wilfrido Rivera b, *
a
Facultad de Ingenierı́a Mecánica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro, 5000, Mor., Mich., Mexico
b
Centro de Ivestigación en Energı́a, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos, Mexico

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In this paper the short term wind speed forecasting in the region of La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, applying
Received 21 March 2007 the technique of artificial neural network (ANN) to the hourly time series representative of the site is
Accepted 15 March 2008 presented. The data were collected by the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) during 7 years through
Available online 14 July 2008
a network of measurement stations located in the place of interest. Diverse configurations of ANN were
generated and compared through error measures, guaranteeing the performance and accuracy of the
Keywords: chosen models. First a model with three layers and seven neurons was chosen, according to the rec-
Wind speed forecasting
ommendations of diverse authors, nevertheless, the results were not sufficiently satisfactory so other
Neural networks
three models were developed, consisting of three layers and six neurons, two layers and four neurons
and two layers and three neurons. The simplest model of two layers, with two input neurons and one
output neuron, was the best for the short term wind speed forecasting, with mean squared error and
mean absolute error values of 0.0016 and 0.0399, respectively. The developed model for short term wind
speed forecasting showed a very good accuracy to be used by the Electric Utility Control Centre in Oaxaca
for the energy supply.
Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Although in La Venta, Oaxaca there is actually 1.5 MW of wind

The artificial neural network (ANN) is able to handle the
uncertainties that appear in the solution of problems related to the
real world offering robust solutions and easy implementation of
a different way compared with traditional solutions.
Its use has been successful in a great variety of tasks in diverse
fields such as industrial processes, sciences and business [1]. The
forecasting has shown to be one of the most interesting applica-
tions [2,3]. The ability to predict accurately the future is funda-
mental in the planning and decision making in any activity; the
inherent nonlinear structure is useful to manage the complex re-
lations in problems of diverse disciplines. Also, ANN has demon-
strated high capacity in the modelling of time series for different
applications [4–8].
The models for wind forecasting and power generation are
valuable support tools to support the operators of the Electric
Utility Control Centre (EUCC) [9,10]. The measurements of the wind
speed are generally reported in the form of time series (minutes,
hours, months, etc.), which are adequate to use ANN for prediction
purposes [11,12].
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ52 7773250052; fax: þ52 7773250018.
E-mail address: wrgf@cie.unam.mx (W. Rivera).
power installed and it is expected to grow rapidly up to 54 MW in
the next decade, the EUCC have not yet a mathematical model in
order to predict accurately the short term wind velocities to do an
adequate electricity supply. Because of this, it is important to de-
velop a model that can be used confidently for this purpose. Also
the methodology showed in this work can be used to generate
other models in different sites of Mexico and other countries.
In the present study, different ANN models have been developed
for the short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca,
Mexico, using data measurements of 7 years obtained from the
Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) in the site.
In order to develop the ANN models, statistical parametric tests
(t and F) were made to determine if all the obtained data in the
different Januaries, Februaries, etc., through the 7 years belong to
the same population. Once the previous premise was verified,
a model for every month of the year was developed.
Four different configurations of ANN of two and three layers
(with different number of neurons) were proven determining their
statistical error in order to obtain the best model for every month.
Finally each one of the models was evaluated for the forecasting
using data not considered previously during their training stage.
Because of the best configuration of the ANN consisting of two
layers and three neurons was always the same (with exception of
the weights) for the 12 months, in this paper paper just the results
for the month of January are presented.

0960-1481/$ – see front matter Ó 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2008.03.014
 E. Cadenas, W. Rivera / Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 274–278 275

25 70

TS PS 60
20
Wind Speed (m/s)

50

Frequency
15
40

10 30

20
5
10

0
0
100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 10 20
Time (h)
Wind Speed (m/s)
Fig. 1. January mean hourly values in La Venta, Oaxaca.
Fig. 2. Histogram of velocities of January 1999 in La Venta, Oaxaca.

2. Time series
their great flexibility, in some cases they have caused inconsistent
results and unrealistic expectations [15,16].
Fig. 1 shows the time series used in the models which consists of
744 data in total, corresponding to 24 hourly mean data for each of
5. Statistics measures to determine the accuracy
the 31 days of the last January. The training set (TS) with 550 data
of the forecast
was used for the models’ training and the prediction set (PS) con-
sisting of 194 data was used to verify their accuracy during the
In order to determine quantitatively the best model, two fore-
prediction stage. As can be observed in the figure, there is a no-
cast error measures were employed for model evaluation and
ticeable data randomness and it is difficult to find a series tendency
model comparison, being these: the mean squared error (MSE) and
or seasonality.
the mean absolute error (MAE).
Table 1 shows the statistical data measures including the mean,
If yt is the actual observation for a time period t and Ft is the
the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum velocities.
forecast for the same period, then the error is defined as
Fig. 2 shows the histogram of the frequency against the wind
velocity in La Venta, Oaxaca. As can be seen, the average wind ve- et ¼ yt  Ft (1)
locity is considerably high in the zone and the data show a bimodal
behaviour which has been reported by other authors [13]. The standard statistical error measures can be defined as

n
1X
3. Artificial neural networks MSE ¼ e2 (2)
nt¼1 t
Nowadays, artificial neural networks are being used more fre-
and the mean absolute error as
quently in different fields due to their capacity and robustness for
the solution of different problems. In the present study different n
1X
configurations of networks have been proposed to find the best MAE ¼ jet j (3)
nt¼1
adjustment of the data.
The backpropagation network was invented by Rumelhart in where n is the number of periods of time.
1986 and uses the generalized delta rule as learning rule. The
ADALINE/MADALINE networks were proposed by Widrow–Hoff in 6. Proposed models
1969 and use the average square error rule.
6.1. Number of layers
4. Time series model with artificial neural networks
For the generation of the ANN models, it is convenient to know
The training of the ANN using time series implies necessarily to the following parameters: (i) the number of input vectors, (ii) the
know the relation that exists between the series and their lags.
There are statistics tools that orient on the matter, that is the case of
the autocorrelation function (ACF) and the partial autocorrelation
function (PACF), which help to determine the input variables of the yt-1 N1 w1 N4
neural network [14]. w10
w2
The ANNs trained with time series have the ability to model
arbitrarily linear and nonlinear functions, unfortunately because of w3 N7 yt
yt-2 N2 N5 w11

Table 1 w6 w12
Statistical measures corresponding to the month of January 1999 in La Venta
yt-3 N3 w9 N6
Data number Mean (m/s) St. dev. (m/s) Min. vel. (m/s) Max. vel. (m/s)
744 12.33 6.91 0.21 24.97
Fig. 3. Configuration of the ANN with three layers and seven neurons.
276 E. Cadenas, W. Rivera / Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 274–278

0.05 Real
Model
rate 0.0700
20
0.04 rate 0.7000
rate 0.2500

Wind Speed (m/s)

0.03
Error

0.02 10

0.01

0.00 0

200 400 600 800 1000 50 100 150

Number of epochs T(h)
Fig. 4. Evolution of the errors at different rates of learning. Fig. 5. Comparison of the real data with the results obtained using the model of three
layers and seven neurons.

number of layers, (iii) the number of output vectors, (iv) the

number of neurons, etc. In general rules do not exist, nevertheless, ytþ2 ¼ f ðytþ1 ; xt Þ (5)
it is accepted that a network with three layers connected towards
ahead, with a transference function identified in the output unit In the same way, for three periods we have
and a logic function in the units of the intermediate layer, can ap-
proximate any continuous function in a reasonable way [17,18]. ytþ3 ¼ f ðytþ2 ; ytþ1 Þ (6)
Based on the previous paragraph it was decided to begin with one It is commonly used for short forecast horizons in situations where
ANN of three layers and one output, that it is exactly the parameter to the one-lag correlation is dominant over other lag correlations [22].
be predicted. The proposed configuration is shown in Fig. 3. The proposed models to be analyzed are the following ones:

6.2. Iterative method (1) Model 1: Three layers, three input neurons (previous values of
hourly wind speed), three hidden ones, and one output neuron
The intuitive technique, denominated iterative method, has (current value of wind speed).
been used by several researchers to generate forecasting [19–21]. (2) Model 2: Three layers, three input neurons (previous values of
An example of this is to assume a model of prediction with two lags, hourly wind speed), two hidden ones, and one output neuron
represented in the following expression: (current value of wind speed).
(3) Model 3: Two layers, three input neurons (previous values of
ytþ1 ¼ f ðxt ; xt1 Þ (4) hourly wind speed), and one output neuron (current value of
In order to consider two periods in advance, the model would be wind speed).
(4) Model 4: Two layers, two input neurons (previous values of
hourly wind speed), and one output neuron (current value of
Table 2
wind speed).
Statistical errors at different rates of learning for the model with three layers and
seven neurons
It is pretended that in the course of the training, validation and
Learning rates Minimum error MAE MSE
prediction processes, other models can be identified and used.
0.000001 0.0583 0.2969 0.1167
0.000010 0.0567 0.2927 0.1134
0.000100 0.0438 0.2563 0.0877
Real
0.001000 0.0120 0.1158 0.0239
ANN, 2L, 3N
0.010000 0.0033 0.0550 0.0067 ANN, 2L, 4N
0.050000 0.0024 0.0474 0.0048 ANN, 3L, 7N
0.070000 0.0023 0.0461 0.0045 20 ANN, 3L, 6N
0.100000 0.0021 0.0447 0.0043
Wind Speed (m/s)

0.150000 0.0020 0.0437 0.0040

0.200000 0.0020 0.0435 0.0039
0.250000 0.0019 0.0437 0.0039
0.300000 0.0020 0.0442 0.0039
0.350000 0.0020 0.0448 0.0040
0.400000 0.0022 0.0462 0.0044 10
0.450000 0.0029 0.0497 0.0057
0.500000 0.0035 0.0525 0.0070
0.550000 0.0039 0.0535 0.0077 L = Layer
0.600000 0.0041 0.0566 0.0081 N = Neurons
0.650000 0.0041 0.0578 0.0083
0.680000 0.0048 0.0594 0.0095
0
0.700000 0.0043 0.0575 0.0086
0.900000 0.0040 0.0539 0.0080 50 100 150
0.950000 0.0040 0.0552 0.0079
0.980000 0.0038 0.0543 0.0077
T(h)
1.000000 0.0039 0.0563 0.0087
Fig. 6. Comparison of the real data with the results obtained using the four models.
 E. Cadenas, W. Rivera / Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 274–278 277

Table 3 20
Mean squared error and mean absolute errors for the four models

Model MSE MAE

1 0.0019 0.0435

Wind Speed (m/sec)

2 0.0020 0.0449
3 0.0018 0.0425
4 0.0016 0.0399

10

7. Results

Fig. 4 shows the evolution of the minimum error at different

rates of learning for Model 1. In this figure it can be seen how the
error decreases rapidly for the lower rates of learning of 0.07 and
0.25 and then remains almost constant from the iteration 200. 0
Table 2 summarizes the statistical error measures calculated 50 100 150
during the course of the training. The shaded values show that the T(h)
minimum errors occur at learning rates of 0.2000 and 0.2500.
Fig. 5 compares the results obtained using the model with the Fig. 8. Comparison of the results obtained with the model and the real data outside
the sample.
real data. It can be seen how the model predicts in a reasonable way
the randomness of the data; however, a gap is observed at velocities
higher than 10 m/s.
The same procedure was followed for the four proposed model with two layers and three neurons was the best for both the
models and the results are shown in Fig. 6. In this figure it can be training and forecasting stages, which reflect the persistency of the
seen that the best model is the simplest one, consisting of two wind in the site. The selection of the suitable model using ANN
layers with two input neurons and one output neuron. The other implies a process of careful analysis that depends on the charac-
models predict the behaviour of the wind but with a gap at high teristics of the problem; for short term wind speed forecasting this
velocities. Table 3 shows the mean squared error and the mean technique responds of a satisfactory way to the necessities of pre-
absolute errors for the four models. As it was expected from cision and accuracy required to support the operators of the Electric
Fig. 6, the lowest statistical errors were obtained with the sim- Utility Control Centre.
plest model.
Fig. 7 shows the best model with two layers and three neurons
Acknowledgments
and the corresponding weights.

We are thankful to Subgerencia de Proyectos Geotermoeléctricos

8. Out of sample forecasting of the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), for the support in the
accomplishment of the present study, specially to the Ing. Roberto
Once the best model was obtained to reproduce the real data, it Tovar Cadenas, project manager for his valuable help.
is important to verify its accuracy utilizing the data outside the
sample. This means to use the last 190 data not considered during
the training of the ANN, corresponding to the month of January References
2000.
[1] Widrow B, Rumelhart D, Lehr MA. Neural networks: applications in industry,
Fig. 8 compares the results obtained using Model 4 with the business and science. Communications of the ACM 1994;37(3):93–105.
real data. In this figure it can be observed how the model predicts [2] Peter Zhang G. Neural networks in business forecasting. Georgia State
with high accuracy the behaviour and the wind velocities of the University, USA. IRM Press, ISBN 1-59140-215-8; 2004.
[3] Kua-Ping L, Fildes R. The accuracy of a specifying feed forward neural
190 data.
networks forecasting. Computers & Operations Research 2005;32:2151–69.
[4] Zhang GP. An investigation of neural networks for linear time-series
forecasting. Computers & Operations Research 2001;28:1183–202.
9. Conclusions
[5] Medeiros MC, Pedreira CE. What are the effects of forecasting linear time
series with neural networks? Engineering Intelligent Systems 2001;9:237–42.
In the particular case of La Venta, Oaxaca it was decided to begin [6] Kalogirou SA. Applications of artificial neural networks for energy systems.
Applied Energy 2000;67(1–2):17–35.
the analysis with a model with three layers, according to the rec-
[7] Kalogirou SA, Panteliou S. Thermosiphon solar domestic water heating sys-
ommendations of diverse authors, nevertheless, the simplest tems: long-term performance prediction using artificial neural network. Solar
Energy 2000;69(2):163–74.
[8] Navarro-Esbrı́ J, Berbegall V, Verdu G, Cabello R, Llopis R. Allow data re-
quirement model of a variable-speed vapour compression refrigeration system
based on neural networks. International Journal of Refrigeration 2007;30(8):
yt-1 N1 1452–9.
0.83 [9] Holttinen H. Optimal electricity market for wind power. Energy Policy 2005;
33:2052–63.
[10] Calderon E, Rivera W. Wind speed forecasting in the south coast of Oaxaca,
yt México. Renewable Energy 2007;32:2116–28.
N3 [11] Kariniotakis GS, Nogaret EF. Wind power forecasting using advanced
neural networks models. IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion 1996;
11(4):762–7.
[12] Li S, Wunsch DC, O’Hair E, Giesselmann MG. Comparative analysis of
0.18 regression and artificial neural network models for wind turbine power curve
N2 estimation. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering 2001;123:327–32.
yt-2 [13] Jaramillo OA, Borja MA. Wind speed analysis in La Ventosa, México: a bimodal
probability distribution case. Renewable Energy 2004;29:1613–30.
[14] Brockwell PJ, Davis RA. Introduction to time series and forecasting. Springer;
Fig. 7. Best artificial neural network. 2002.
278 E. Cadenas, W. Rivera / Renewable Energy 34 (2009) 274–278
[15] Tang Z, Fishwick P. Feedforward neural nets as models for time series fore-
casting. ORSA Journal on Computing 1993;5(4):374–85.
[16] Hill T, Leoroy M, O’Connor M, Remus W. Artificial neural network models for
forecasting and decision making. International Journal of Forecasting 1994;10:
5–15.
[17] Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. Multilayer feed forward networks are
universal approximations. Neural Networks 1989;2:359–66.
[18] Masters T. Practical neural network recipes in Cþþ. London: Academic Press
Inc.; 1993.
[19] Hwarng H. Insights into neural-network forecasting of time series corre-
sponding to ARMA (p,q) structures, Omega. The International Journal of
Management Science 2001;29:273–89.
[20] Balkin SD. The value of nonlinear models in the M3-competition. International
Journal of Forecasting 2001;17:545–6.
[21] Nelson M, Hill T, Remus W, O’Conor M. Time series forecasting using neural networks:
should the data be deseasonalized first? Journal of Forecasting 1999;18:359–67.
[22] DeLurgio S. Forecasting principles and applications. New York: Irwing
McGraw-Hill; 1998.