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Construction June 2002

Economist

Estimate Classes: An Explanation


by Anthony L. Huxley, MSc, MCIOB, PQS

Introduction Class B Estimate (Substantive) Substantive Estimate


For many years a system of classifying Based on design/preliminary drawings This estimate is one of sufficiently high
estimates using the terms “Class A, B C and outline specifications for the project, quality and reliability so as to warrant
or D” has been loosely applied by a which include the designs of all major Treasury Board approval as a Cost Objective
number of organizations. Somewhat of a systems and subsystems, as well as the for the project phase under consideration.
mystery to some, and surrounded in myth results of all site/installation investigations, It is based on detailed systems and
for others, it is worth while taking a step this estimate should provide for the component design and taking into account
back and considering the probable origins establishment of realistic cost objectives all project objectives and deliverables.
and the appropriate use of these terms. and be sufficient to obtain effective project While these definitions refer to a cost
As far as I can tell these classifications approval. objective I have been unable to locate a
are drawn from definitions prepared by TB definition and append the following
Class C Estimate (Indicative)
the Treasury Board (TB) of the Canadian as my interpretation.
Based on a full description of the preferred
federal government in the early 1970s.
option, construction/design experience,
Designed for TB approval processes they Cost Objective
and market conditions, this estimate
were for application to all forms of A planned, and approved, cost limit
should be sufficient for making the correct
procurement and not necessarily construc- (or ceiling) within which the project’s
investment decision, and obtaining
tion. Consequently they were generic scope is to be delivered. The authorized
preliminary project approval.
in their description and several attempts, expenditure for the current phase.
some ill advised, have been made to Class D Estimate It might also be worth noting that
improve them since they were published. Based upon a statement of requirements, the new TB definitions state that a ’D’
It will be worth noting that TB aban- and an outline of potential solutions, this estimate is good enough to be described
doned these designations several years ago, estimate is strictly an indication (rough as ’indicative’. This is unfortunate. I have
but they continue in use within Public order of magnitude) of the final project noted a distinct ’dumbing down’ of
Works and Government Services and cost, and should be sufficient to provide estimates within PWGSC lately, with
elsewhere. an indication of cost and allow for ranking insufficient consideration being given
The following text provides primary all the options being considered. to the content of estimates prepared in
definitions of the various estimate support of preliminary project approvals.
classification followed by an amplified Treasury Board Estimate Consequently major problems arise when,
explanation of the specific attributes Classifications (Current) as noted above, TB holds completion of
displayed by each of the four estimate The following definitions are the current the project to that preliminary figure.
classifications. Application notes and terms and have been transcribed without
references are also included. modification. The two classifications Estimate Attributes
relate specifically to the two main Each estimate classification displays a quite
Primary Estimate Definitions approvals provided by Treasury Board distinct set of attributes. These attributes,
The following are based on the original i.e. Preliminary Project Approval and both primary and secondary, are identified
TB definitions but have been modified Effective Project Approval. While the in the following text and are also
slightly to suit application to construction latter officially sets a ’budget’ in TB’s summarised within Table 1. Cost Estimate
cost planning and cost control through terms don’t be fooled! They are quite Classification Summary – Estimate Attributes
design. capable of controlling and restricting that follows. In my view the primary
expenditures to that sought as a prelimi- attribute rules. Many of you may have
Class A Estimate
nary project approval. encountered the lazy client who requests
Based on complete working drawings
and specifications, and prepared prior to Indicative Estimate an estimate be classified higher than extant
calling competitive tenders, this estimate This is a low quality, order of magnitude information permits. Content is every-
should be sufficient to allow a detailed estimate that is not sufficiently accurate thing. An estimate can be no better than
reconciliation/negotiation with any to warrant Treasury Board approval as the information that goes into it.
contractors proffered tender. a Cost Objective. It replaces the classes of continued on page 13
estimates formerly referred to as Class C
or D.

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Volume 12, Number 2

Estimate Classes – An Explanation


continued from page 12

(A) Class A Cost Estimate (ii) A minor proportion of the estimate may be in (D) Class D Cost Estimate
(1) Primary Attribute the form of allowances (1) Primary Attribute
(a) Work Definition (d) Typical Level of Effort (a) Work Definition
(i) Complete working drawings and (i) Medium. (i) A description of the intended solutions
specifications just prior to calling with such supporting documentation as
for tenders. (C) Class C Cost Estimate is available.
(ii) Definition of project typically in the order (1) Primary Attributes (ii) Definition of project typically in the order
of 95% to 100% complete. (a) Work Definition of 1% to 5%
(2) Secondary Attributes (i) A completed project plan, clearly (2) Secondary Attributes
(a) Intended Purpose defining the intent and extent of the (a) Intended Purpose
(i) Confirmation of project compliance with planned work (i) To aid in the screening of various
the budget (Effective Project Approval) (ii) Definition of project typically in the order procurement options proposed prior to
prior to calling tenders. of 5% to 15% complete recommending a preferred procurement
(ii) Provide the basis/background necessary (2) Secondary Attributes solution, and
for detailed negotiation, and cost (a) Intended Purpose (ii) To provide an “Order of Magnitude” cost
reconciliation, with any bidder (i) Establish and/or confirm cost of the only
and/or contractor. recommended option, selected from the (b) Level of Precision
(iii) A final “run through” of the tender various options studied, and the (i) Lowest
documents checking for errors, associated investment decision, and
inconsistencies and omissions. (c) Appropriate Preparation Methodology
(ii) Seek approval from Regional and/or
(b) Level of Precision (i) Various and simple methods of estimate
Headquarters Investment Management
preparation may be employed in
(i) High Board, and
preparing this class of estimate.
(c) Appropriate Preparation Methodology (iii) Seek Preliminary Project Approval from
(ii) A significant proportion of these
Treasury Board
(i) Measured and priced, fully detailed estimates may be in the form of
quantities, obtained from the completed (b) Level of Precision assumptions and allowances.
working drawings and specifications. (i) Low (iii) Where additional information is
(ii) This estimate will contain only those (c) Appropriate Preparation Methodology available it is appropriate to use it in
cash allowances that are called for in (i) Prepared from measured and priced the estimate
the construction documents. quantities, where possible, and priced (d) Typical Level of Effort
(iii) The extensive detail contained within parameter quantities, all obtained from (i) Lowest
this estimate will equal the detail within the project information that is available.
any contractors bid estimate. A minimal level of detail, and often significant assump-
(ii) A significant proportion of the estimate
(d) Typical Level of Effort tion, combined with an acceptance of the low order of
may be in the form of allowances
inherent precision assure that these estimates are
(i) High (Extensive and time consuming). (d) Typical Level of Effort typically prepared with a minimal amount of effort.
(i) Low Unique projects where existing and comparable cost data
(B) Class B Cost Estimate
Primarily an extension of the work undertaken in prepar- is unavailable will require an additional effort, primarily
(1) Primary Attribute to generate (model) valid and supportable estimates.
ing the Class D estimate this estimate is a hard “second
(a) Work Definition look” at the preferred option. continued on page 14
(i) Completed design documents including
drawings and outline specifications
at the end of the Design Development Table 1 – Cost Estimate Classification Summary – Estimate Attributes
stage and just prior to commencement
of working drawings. Primary Attribute Secondary Attributes
(ii) Definition of project typically in the order
Level of Preparation
of 20% to 35% complete Estimate Classification Project Definition Intended Purpose Methodology
Precision Effort
(2) Secondary Attributes
High Compliance with
(a) Intended Purpose Measured, priced,
Class A (completed effective project approval High High
full detail quantities
(i) Confirming validity of Preliminary working documents) (budget)
Project Approval, and
(ii) Seeking Effective Project Approval, and Medium
Class B Seeking effective Mainly measured, priced,
(completed design Medium Medium
(iii) Typically setting the Project Budget (Substantive)
development)
project approval detail quantities
(b) Level of Precision
(i) Medium Class C Low Seeking preliminary
Measured, priced,
parameter quantities, Low Low
(c) Appropriate Preparation Methodology (Indicative) (project plan) project approval
where possible
(i) Majority of estimate prepared from
measured and priced quantities
Lowest Screening of various
obtained from the completed design Class D
(described solutions) alternative solutions
Various Lowest Lowest
drawings and outline specifications

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Construction June 2002
Economist

Estimate Classes – An Explanation


continued from page 13

Estimate Attributes – In my view the term ’level of estimate types are the norm. Above all it is
Application Notes accuracy’, while often used, is misleading. important to use an appropriate method-
Accuracy is a function of both estimate ology that uses the all project information
Primary Attribute precision and information variability. It available, delivers an appropriate answer,
Work Definition also leads to the question “Measured and at a reasonable (affordable) level of
The level of work definition is the against what?” which can provoke effort.
primary determinant of an estimate’s significant debate.
Typical Level of Effort
outcome, and it is the completeness Past research into the results of com-
The circumstances surrounding any
of that information that determines the petitive bids, received by PWGSC, has
project or estimate are extremely variable
classification of the estimate. No estimate identified a major distinction between the
and as a result the necessary level of effort
can be better than the information upon behaviour of bid competitions for projects
may also vary significantly for reasons
which it is based, nor can it make up for of less than $1,000,000 and those above
other than project size.
deficiencies in that information. Reason- that mark. Two examples were chosen
able efforts should be made to ensure that from that research as they are most typical
NOTE: Regarding Class C Estimates –
the estimate does, in fact, make use of of the size of projects undertaken by
the description included relates to that
the full information set available, else PWGSC.
estimate needed in support of a
the estimate must be classified at a lower Projects in the order of $100,000 preliminary project approval submission
level consistent with the actual level of In this category the demonstrated range, i.e. a confirmation and second look at the
information used. about the mean bid, for 95% of all bids Class D estimate. That second Class C
While expressed within this text as received, was ± 25% estimate often prepared later, after project
project documents being a certain commencement and at completion of the
percentage such a determination can Projects in the order of $7,500,000.
formal project definition phase, will be a
be subjective and difficult to assess. In this category the demonstrated range,
new estimate with additional information,
about the mean bid, for 95% of all bids
and will entail a level of effort, approach-
received, was ± 4%
Secondary Attributes ing that required of a Class B estimate.
Application
Intended Purpose
Within the two major ranges (i.e. above References
Each level (classification) of estimate is
and below $1,000,000) projects of lesser
intended for a specific purpose within Treasury Board Manual
value than the examples provided will
the approvals process. While higher level Chapter 2-1 Project Approval –
exhibit a wider range of precision and
estimates can be used for lower level 01-06-94
vice-versa.
purposes the reverse is not the case. Appendix A – Requirements for Treasury
Level of Precision Remember these are the results of Board Submissions Seeking Preliminary
Described here in the relative terms, as competitive bids based on complete Project Approval; Appendix B –
Lowest, Low, Medium and High inherent drawings and specifications. If you should Requirements for Treasury Board
levels of precision, the size of a project has wish further detail on this research then Submissions Seeking Effective Project
a significant impact on any numerical examining the Construction Economist Approval; Appendix C – Requirements
measure of precision. Contrary to archives will show up a précis of a paper for Treasury Board Submissions Seeking
common belief Treasury Board has never that I wrote and presented at the AACEI Lease Project Approval; Appendix F –
attached a numerical level of precision to Annual General Meeting in Seattle Project Brief; Appendix G – Use of
estimates, and with good reason. Such in 1991. Estimates in Treasury Board Submissions.
numerical measures when expressed as Chapter 2-2 Project Management –
Appropriate Preparation Methodology 01-06-94
a percentage of project cost will vary
Numerous estimate preparation methods Appendix D – Project Progress Reports
inversely with project size.
are available, the choice of which depends and Databases for Project Management
Expressions of precision are also
primarily on the level of project definition Guideline
subjective. In addition to project size,
available and to a far lesser extent on
consideration should also be given to the Chapter 2-3 Management of Major
intended estimate purpose. Typically, for
availability and/or quality of reference Crown Projects (MCP) – 01-06-94
building construction projects, stochastic
cost estimating data, the uniqueness Appendix C – Submission of
type estimates are relatively rare (except
and/or complexity of the project, and Requirements for MCP’s
perhaps for some “order of magnitude”
also the competency and skills of potential Glossary/Lexique – 01-06-94
estimates). Deterministic, i.e. measured,
bidders.

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