NREL PV Jobs/Labor Intensity Project

New Ideas in Educating

a Workforce in
Renewable Energy and
Energy Efficiency

Albany, NY

Barry Friedman

November 19, 2009

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
 Presentation Overview

  About the solar PV value chain

  Recent renewable energy jobs studies

  NREL’s JEDI Model

  Ongoing NREL study

  Key issues for U.S. job estimation

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 Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Flow
Direct Economic Impacts

Solar PV sales Solar PV jobs

Solar PV Consumer goods and services

Solar PV suppliers and
suppliers and Sales and jobs from household spending on
services jobs food, housing, clothing, health, education,
services sales
transportation, use of government services, etc.

Indirect Economic Impacts Induced Economic Impacts

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 Examples of Direct, Indirect, and Induced Jobs
Created by Solar
Direct Jobs Indirect Jobs
Jobs created directly by production, Jobs created in the production of inputs into
installation, and maintenance of PV the PV industry on intermediate levels of
production
Examples
•  System developers and Examples
integrators •  Commodity and materials suppliers
• Installers •  Architects, planners, and builders
•  Manufacturing (e.g. silicon and •  Process manufacturers, e.g. lasers
wafers, cells, modules, inverters) for wafer manufacture
•  Research and development •  Financers and Investors
•  Trainers and educators •  Media and publishers

Induced Jobs
Jobs associated with spending on food, housing, clothing, health, education,
Research andtransportation,
Development use of government services, etc.

Examples: Retailers, restaurants, insurance companies

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 Presentation Overview

  About the solar value chain

  Key renewable energy jobs studies

  NREL’s JEDI Model

  Ongoing NREL study

  Key issues for U.S. job estimation

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 New Energy Finance, for 2008 and 2025 Global

Sector   2008  Jobs  per  MW   2025  Jobs  per  MW  

Opera&on   0.6   0.6  

PV  project  construc&on   5.0   2.9  

Roo8op  installa&on   20.0   8.8  

Silicon  and  wafers   3.5   1.3  
Cell  manufacture   5.0   1.9  
Module  manufacture   6.0   2.2  

Inverters   1.3   0.8  

Research   0.4   0.15  
Development  and  services   0.2   0.4  

TOTAL   42   19  
Source: New Energy Finance, 2009
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 Global Job Estimates - New Energy Finance
NEF estimates based on 14.7 GW in 2008 and 340 GW in 2025, across
solar technologies.
PEW estimates U.S. solar job growth at 19.1% from 1998-07.

FTE jobs in PV (2008 and 2025)

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 Navigant, for 2005 and 2010 U.S.

Research and Development

Source: Navigant Consulting, 2008

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 Presentation Overview

  About the solar value chain

  Recent renewable energy jobs studies

  NREL’s JEDI Model

  Ongoing NREL study

  Key issues for U.S. job estimation

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 Jobs and Economic Development Impact
Model (JEDI) Inputs
  Analyzes project-level job and
economic impacts of constructing and
operating power generation at the
local and state level
  Inputs include
-  Project location
-  Year of construction or installation
-  System type (residential new
construction, residential retrofit,
small commercial, large
commercial, utility)
-  Average system size, number of
systems installed
-  Base installed system cost,
annual direct O&M cost
  Option to use default project cost data

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 Output of the JEDI Model

JEDI calculates jobs, earnings, and

economic activity

Construction
–  Project development and onsite
labor impacts
–  Module and supply chain
impacts
–  Induced impacts

Operation
–  Onsite labor impacts (PV project
labor only)
–  Local revenue and supply chain
impacts
–  Induced impacts.

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 Possible Next Steps For PV JEDI Development

Provide Scale-up Capability

–  Improve usability for policy makers
–  State and federal solar carve-out RPS scenarios
-  Gross and net job analysis by state

Improve Cost Estimation

-  Regular (or automatic) materials cost database updates, or allowance for
cost trending from base year data
-  Addition of a database of manufacturing, land, and labor availabilities by
state
-  Improved property & sales tax calculations
-  Improvements to resource estimation and system design specifications

Other
-  Allow for choice of thin-film, mono- or poly-crystalline technologies
-  Add cost of land for centralized PV installations
-  Add option for single or dual-axis tracking on large scale PV projects

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 Presentation Overview

  About the solar value chain

  Recent renewable energy jobs studies

  NREL’s JEDI Model

  Ongoing NREL study

  Key issues for U.S. job estimation

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 Goals of the Study

For the 2009-2030 timeframe:

  Identify and assess qualitative factors that
contribute to the changing productivity (labor
intensity) in U.S. solar PV
  E.g. new distributed models, economies of scale,
industry consolidation
  Utilize historical intensity gains to assess future
  Provide up-to-date national estimates of U.S. job
creation on a per-MW basis, across the PV value
chain
  Compare findings to other studies, SEIA survey
findings, and PV JEDI Model
  Follow-on analysis will replicate for CSP and SHC

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 Value Chain Segments Covered by Study (NEF Model)

1.  Operation
2.  PV project construction
3.  Rooftop installation
4.  Silicon and wafers
5.  Cell manufacture
6.  Module manufacture
7.  Inverters
8.  Research
9.  Development and services

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 Who We’re Interviewing for the Study

  Direct sectors of Solar PV Industry

-  Installers
-  Manufacturers
-  Vertically integrated organizations
-  Distributors
  Large and small enterprises
-  Broad range of industry participant size and scope of operations
  National coverage to capture localized economic and labor
variations
  Variations in state laws and regulations that influence labor
productivity.
-  State specific incentive and certification laws impacting installers

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 Presentation Overview

  About the solar value chain

  Recent renewable energy jobs studies

  NREL’s JEDI Model

  Ongoing NREL study

  Key issues for U.S. job estimation

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 Key Job Estimation Issues
  Gross vs. net employment: Displacement of
conventional energy source employment
  Need for support infrastructure growth and employment
  SolarGrid model
  CREZ model
  Scale-up Scenarios and assumptions
  U.S. Strategic position vis-à-vis China on PV-related
manufacturing (more in a moment)
  Difficult to capture domestic job creation from
multinational business operations.
  Effects of mechanization, robotics, other process
improvements
  How are ancillary services affected?
  Lawyers, financiers, project developers, etc.

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 Scale-up Scenarios: Capacity Projections for PV
Growth by 2030

300
2030 PV Projections
300
Cumulative PV Capacity (GW)

251
240
250
200 210
200
200 170
180 120
150

100
65

50 28 28
13 12

Note: The Clean Edge projection is for 2025.

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 U.S. Competitive Position
  China and Europe each have 27% PV market share of 6.9 MW
global PV production.
  China fastest growth rates.
  U.S. ceded its position and is now at 6%. (.41 GW from .27 GW in 2007).
  1999 – 40% cell market share
  2009 – 5% cell market share (SEIA)
  Previous history of PV tech transfer to Japan
  U.S. is an exporter and importer of both PV modules and thin film technologies
  Stabenow Senate bill – “Solar Manufacturing Jobs Creation Act”
  Cost/benefit to U.S. economy/macroeconomic factors:
  Carbon price unclear, transportation costs, tariffs,
  Weighed against expensive labor, capital, materials, and land/buildings
  Installation job multipliers compared with manufacturing supply chain;
  Scale-up scenarios could mean it’s not an either/or for U.S./China manufacturing
  Uncertain effects of the “Buy American” provision of ARRA

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 WD Needs Identified by IREC and DOE

–  Lack of trained installers, designers, sales people, inspectors,

codes experts
–  Inconsistent/incomplete professional training/certification/
licensing standards
•  Training does not differentiate among the types of jobs that are
emerging
•  Lack of clearly targeted solar occupational areas, titles, tasks and
skill sets
•  Lack of clearly defined career paths
•  Lack of instructors with a combination of content expertise, practical
and teaching experience
•  Lack of training programs that provide sufficient on-the-job
experience and hands-on laboratories
•  Training does not sufficiently cross disciplines
•  Lessons learned from other tech industries
–  Status quo educational system does not prioritize solar training

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 Questions?

Barry Friedman
Senior Energy Analyst
National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
Strategic Energy Analysis Center
1617 Cole Boulevard, MS 302
Golden, CO 80401
barry.friedman@nrel.gov

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