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MARKET OVERVIEW
Index started week Thursday Close 4 day change 4 day change % ytd
DJIA 12221.19 12319.7 98.51 0.81% 6.41%
NASDAQ 2752.33 2781.07 28.74 1.04% 3.90%
RUSSELL 2000 826.21 843.55 17.34 2.10% 6.30%
S&P 500 1315.45 1325.83 10.38 0.79% 5.42%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector Change MTD YTD Valuation Last 12- P/E
MReturn Ratio
Aerospace 0.41% 5.02% 15.79% 15.49% overvalued 27.02% 19
Auto-Tires-Trucks 0.45% 2.74% -1.87% 11.03% overvalued 37.29% 19.94
Basic Materials 0.54% 1.30% 0.48% 14.13% overvalued 52.99% 44.89
Business Services 0.29% 2.36% 4.59% 10.21% overvalued 15.07% 50.54
Computer and Technology 0.30% 2.51% 12.36% 9.50% overvalued 32.42% 41.22
Construction 0.02% 1.85% 1.87% 10.39% overvalued 11.64% 36.42
Consumer Discretionary 0.34% 1.67% 4.97% 11.08% overvalued 17.09% 32.52
Consumer Staples -0.52% -0.11% -0.65% 9.64% overvalued 14.67% 21.21
Finance 0.26% -0.24% 3.04% 8.36% overvalued 9.78% 26.46
Industrial Products 0.55% 3.62% 6.91% 11.09% overvalued 27.41% 35.97
Medical 0.16% 3.60% 11.78% 2.88% overvalued 15.31% 38.29
Multi-Sector Conglomerates 0.34% 4.09% 5.65% 17.88% overvalued 29.03% 28.28
Oils-Energy 0.32% 3.77% 13.38% 27.60% overvalued 46.85% 46.89
Retail-Wholesale -0.24% 4.20% 4.97% 8.67% overvalued 20.85% 24.82
Transportation 0.25% 4.33% 0.89% 13.47% overvalued 22.74% 21.78
Utilities 0.38% 3.06% 4.22% 11.06% overvalued 16.95% 21.91
Sector Talk—Aerospace
Over the past few weeks there have been a lot of things going "BOOM" in the
desert thanks to the imposition of a U.N. "no-fly zone" over Libya. These things cost
money, lots of money. Sooner or later they will need to be replaced. It therefore
seems apropos to take a look at our rankings for the Aerospace sector for this week's
sector talk. Below, we present the latest data on the Aerospace Sector from our
Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and
volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.
Top-Five Aerospace Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns
Ticker Name Mkt Price Valuation(%) Last 12-M
Retn(%)
ATK ALLIANT TECHSYS 70.67 1 -12.83
LDSH LADISH COMPANY 54.65 106.93 171.08
NOC NORTHROP GRUMMN 62.71 -9.63 -1.34
ESL ESTERLINE TECHN 70.72 28.16 43.07
LLL L-3 COMM HLDGS 78.31 -7.35 -12.69
Subscribers can check out the latest valuation, forecast, and ratings figures on
the Basic Materials Sector from our Models HERE.
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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist
Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to
Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com
Treasury Yields
10-Year-- (3.454) Daily, weekly, annual and quarterly value levels
are 3.530, 3.641, 3.796 and 4.016 with monthly, annual, and
semiannual risky levels at, 3.181, 2.690, 2.441, and 2.322. The
monthly chart favors an up trend for yields beginning with the December 2008 low
yield at 2.016. This corresponds to when the Federal Reserve cut the funds rate to zero
to 0.25%. The up trend goes through the low yield at 2.334 set in October 2010 in the
midst of the QE2 hype.
Commodities and Forex
Comex Gold-- ($1434.60) Annual, semiannual and annual value levels are $1356.5,
$1300.6 and $1187.2 with a daily pivot at 1429.1, and semiannual, weekly, quarterly
and monthly risky levels at $1452.6, $1469.8, 1523.7 and 1559.9. The monthly chart is
overbought and the price pattern looks like a parabolic rise that accelerated as the
Fed cut the funds rate to zero in mid-December 2008.
Nymex Crude-- ($106.65) My annual and monthly value levels are $101.92, $101.09
and $99.91 with a weekly pivot at $105.31, and semiannual, daily and quarterly risky
levels at $107.14, $108.20, $114.27 and $120.52. The semiannual level at $107.14 was
tested overnight and is now a pivot. The monthly chart is overbought and oil was as
low as $33.20 per barrel just after the Fed cut the funds rate to zero percent. A zero
percent funds rate was clearly a license for traders to speculate.
The Euro-- (1.4167) My quarterly value level is 1.3401 with daily, weekly and monthly
pivots at 1.4051, 1.4119 and 1.4190 with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4308
and 1.4624. The euro tested its 120-month simple moving average at 1.2085 in June
2010.
Major Indices
Tracking Dow Theory - The Dow Transports ended March with a daily close
above its February 17th closing high at 5298.10. This is just a fractionally higher close at
5299.89, so the Dow Industrial Average needs to follow with a close above its
February 18th closing high at 12,391.25 today to confirm a Dow Theory Buy Signal. The
other major averages that remain below their February highs are; S&P 500 by 1.4%,
NASDAQ by 2.1%, NASDAQ 100 by 2.7% and the SOX by 7.8%. The Russell 2000 is 0.7%
above its February high.
The Trading Range Scenario – The Dow Industrial Average remains in a trading
range between its March 16th low at 11,555.48 and its February 18th high at 12,391.29.
Strength can stretch to my new monthly risky level at 12,481, which would still be a
high below 12,600. The downside risk remains my annual value level at 11,491.
Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
S&P 500 – (1325.8) My quarterly and annual value levels are 1277.7 and 1210.7
with daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 1329.2, 1353.7 and 1360.0.
Semiannual value levels are 1151.1 and 967.3 with quarterly and annual risky
levels at 1500.4 and 1562.9.
NASDAQ – (2781) Semiannual and annual value levels are 2363 and 2335 with
daily, weekly and monthly risky levels at 2794, 2830 and 2898. My semiannual
value level is 2172 with quarterly and annual risky levels at 3209 and 3243.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2339) Semiannual, and annual value levels are 2006,
1928 and 1723 with daily, weekly, monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at
2359, 2389, 2477, 2590 and 2685.
Dow -- (12,320) Annual and semiannual value levels are 11,491, 10,959, and
9,449 with monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,481, 13,774 and
13,890. We show overbought technical momentum with the 120-month simple
moving average as support at 10,500.
Dow Utilities – (413.06) My semiannual value level is 397.84 with daily and weekly
pivots at 412.49 and 411.78 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 423.25 and
448.17. Semiannual and annual risky levels are 452.17, 458.28 and 579.22.
Dow Transports – (5300) Quarterly and semiannual value levels are 4714, 4264
and 3774 with annual, daily, weekly and monthly pivots at 5179, 5264, 5295 and
5371, and annual and quarterly risky levels at 6131 and 6148.
Russell 2000 – (843.55) Annual and quarterly value levels are 784.16 and 778.81
with a daily pivot at 840.22, and monthly and weekly risky levels at 856.67 and
857.75. Semiannual value levels are 631.62 and 567.74 with quarterly and
annual risky levels at 949.02 and 978.58.
The SOX – (437.36) Semiannual and annual value levels are 296.89, 270.98 and
259.30 with daily, monthly, weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 443.74,
452.34, 459.29, 498.75 and 531.14.
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