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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 BACKGROUND.............................................................4

1.1 Introduction.......................................................................................4

2.1 Introduction.....................................................................................10

2.5.2 Wealth:.........................................................................................

2.5.4 Liquidity:...................................................................................14

2.6 Consumption.......................................................................................

2

3.0 METHODOLOGY........................................................37

3.1 Introduction.....................................................................................37

3.12.1 Reliability.................................................................................46

3.12.2 Validity.....................................................................................46

4.1 Introduction.........................................................................................

3

4

CHAPTER ONE

10 BACKGROUND

1.1 Introduction

have only the booming economy but the truth is truth. Theories are based on

the assumptions but the practical life has to move with time, in complex

environment, and the time is never static. A well known commentator of The

Independent laments that Europe is poorer than the United States in Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) per capita terms: ‘The UK is only barely catching up.

The rest is not only poorer but becoming even more poor’ (McRae, 2007). He

warns of a mass exodus of Europe’s best talent if this problem is not fixed

soon. His solution is to make Europe grow faster in order to prevent the ‘gap

long grown beyond its primary technical and scholarly functions. It has taken

almost by default, social progress. The fluctuation of GDP growth rate over

the period of 20 years from the year 1985 to 2005in the United Kingdom can

be seen in figure (1.1). This figure shows the dynamic nature of GDP.

5

the economies and this accounts around 65% in UK. So, the private

significant impact on GDP. Thus, the policy makers try to influence the

consumption at the time when there are some imbalances in the economy or

they want to change some saving issues. Individuals choose what to do with

their income. However, government can paly a vital influential role to alter the

household individuals have two choices to use their income; either they save

One of the factors that influence the saving is the interest rate. Changes in

1 Downloaded from; http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/GDP-

Growth.aspx?Symbol=GBP [Accessed on 23/02/11]

6

Different countries use different economic policy to develop their country. The

UK has used inflation targeting economic policy. The UK central bank has

used interest rate as a primary tool to control the inflation rate. Since the

interest rate and the inflation rate tend to be inversely related. The probable

actions taken by the UK central bank to raise or lower the interest rate usually

(but not always) changes the inflation rate. During the time of cooled economy

interest rate can be lowered to accelerate the economy and raise the inflation.

Similarly, during the time of accelerated economy interest rate can be raised

to cool the economy and lower the inflation rate. To maintain the cooled and

accelerated condition of the economy the central bank has to change the

interest rate time to time. The figure (1.2) shows the fluctuation of interest rate

The bar diagram was drawn from the UK central bank data.

nature of interest rate with the consumption and the GDP in the United

exchange rate on consumption and investment in the short run but not in the

long run. This is consistent with the expectation as wages do not adjust to

inflation in the short run but they do in the long run. The estimated results of

the consumption model have shown that the short-run effects last into the

7

that the link between domestic investment and the exchange rate is

unavoidable. However, the short-run effects lasted into the long run only in 21

countries.

There are hardly any economic papers which do not talk about the interest

rates. Perhaps, interest rates are the most closely watched element in the

financial market. “Interest rates are the most pervasive elements in the

financial world. They affect every nook and cranny of financial markets.”

(Ritter, Silber et al. 1991)Ritter, Silber et al. 1991. From this citation we can

United States in GDP per capita terms: ‘The UK is only barely catching up.

The rest is not only poorer but becoming even more poor’ (McRae, 2007).

This statement shows the importance of the GDP. This dissertation has tried

to deal with some these issues such as the importance of interest rate, wage

these variables are interrelated in some complex way. There have been

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1971; Springer 1975; Elmendorf and System 1996; Horioka and Wan 2007;

System 1996Horioka and Wan 2007Kapoor and Ravi 2009. Similarly we can

find the researches which have found negative relationship between interest

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Mishkin 1976; Boskin 1978; Gylfason 1981; Summers 1981; Carlino 1982;

PEVuZE5vdGU+PENpdGU+PEF1dGhvcj5Qb3VyZ2VyYW1pPC9BdXRob3I+

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1989; Pourgerami and Ghouri 1991; Attanasio and Weber 1993; Fernandez-

The main issues which this dissertation is dealing with are the as follows:

59

and investment?

This dissertation is divided into five sections. Section one introduces the topic

literature reviews, which describes the past findings about the topic and the

views of the researchers who have made extensive research on the related

explanation of how the research will be carried out. The explanation about he

model are described on the methodology section. Section four deals with the

data collection and data analysis part of this dissertation, where require data

for the analysis is collected and analysed to reach the conclusion. Section five

is the section of conclusion, where the conclusion of the paper has been

presented. The overview of the paper can be presented in the work flow

Data

Conclusion

Literature

Analysis

Methodolog

Introduction

&Rev

Sum

&F

60

61

CHAPTER TWO

20 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction

Interest rates are the most closely watched element in the financial market. It

drives the decision, whether to lend or borrow, save or invest or choose the

tool to consider while making investments. “Interest rates are the most

pervasive elements in the financial world. They affect every nook and cranny

One important thing the investors must know is the distinction between

interest rates and returns. Many people think that the interest rate on a bond

tells them all they need to know about how well off they are as a result of

owing it. Interest rates provide a kind of return to the investor but it is not

necessarily the only one return to the investor. There is another term which

added to the interest rates to make return is called capital gain. The

combination of capital gain and the interest rates provides the return of an

can be written as

Where,

62

C = Coupon payment

The above equation (5) can be rewritten in two separate terms which makes

Here the first term is the current yield ic (the ratio between coupon payment

to purchase price)

C Pt= ic (2.3)

And the second term is known as rate of capital gain which is fractional

Where g = rate of capital gain. Now the equation (2.2) can be rewritten as

The above equation (2.5) shows that return and interest rates are not same.

Interest rate is a part of return, and summation of interest rate and capital is

the return. Interest rates are more stable as compared to return since any

capital gain fluctuates substantially due to the changes in price of the bond.

So far in our discussion we have not considered the term inflation, an import

element for the economists. The interest rate without considering inflation is

known as nominal interest rates. This means nominal interest rates ignore the

effect of inflation. This means we are ignoring the purchasing power of money

rather talking only about the increment in dollars as a per cent of dollars

interest rate it is called real interest rate. “The real interest rate measures the

63

(Ritter, Silber et al. 1991)Ritter, Silber et al. 1991. The relationship among

nominal interest rate, real interest rate and inflation is defined by the Fisher

equation, named for Irving Fisher, one of the great monetary economists of

the twentieth century. “The Fisher equation states that the nominal interest

rate i equals the real interest rate ir, plus the expected rate of inflation πe”

i= ir+πe (2.6)

From this equation we find that the real interest rate equals the nominal

interest rate minus the expected inflation rate. When the inflation is higher, the

real interest rate is lower. That is the purchasing power of money in terms of

goods and services is decreasing with the increase in inflation. For example, if

we make a load with 10% interest and the inflation is 5%. In real terms, by the

next year, we will be better off only by 5% in terms of goods and services,

because by the next year the prices of goods and services will be higher by

5% so the net worth is only 5%. At the time when the inflation is high people

are willing to borrow and invest in goods and services but unwilling to lend.

Interest rates are one of the most closely watched elements in the financial

market. The fluctuations in the interest rates affect peoples’ lending and

we need to analyse supply and demand of bonds and money in the markets.

This theory deals with the decision making such as when to buy an asset,

64

what kind of asset to buy, when the market equilibrium occurs and how the

assume that people can hold their assets in two ways, one as money and

another as bonds. Before dealing with the interest rates and assets demand,

An asset is a piece of paper that is a store of value. There are some factors

expected return on company XYZ bond falls while the expected return

2.5.1 Wealth

down. Wealth is the assets and the resources that individuals hold.

When individuals are wealthy they can afford more and desire to hold

65

the expected return from that asset so it is less desirable to hold that

Liquidity

how quickly and with less transaction cost it can be converted to cash

or any other assets. Thus, the more the asset is liquid the more

2.6 Consumption

Consumption, one of the most widely studied topics in the field of economics,

variable for the policy makers. There have been lots of studies about

aggregate consumption and still many scholars and researchers are carrying

out modern research in this topic. However, the results do not coincide at the

66

confusing factors.

However, there are lots of modern researches about the consumption, most

(AIH), Modigliani’s (1953) life cycle hypothesis (LCH) and Friedman’s (1957)

but not necessarily linear, function of disposable income (after tax income).

Where,

Ct = total consumption

but has been less successful while applying over a longer time frame. This

67

model was introduced in 1954 by the economists Albert Ando, Roy Harrod,

affected by the future expected income. When individuals are on their earning

age they do not consume whatever they earn at that time, rather they save

early and old age and low at the middle age. In the LCH model consumers

according to this model the interest rate bears an important role in estimate

the expected future earning and net worth and which in turn influenced the

Where,

Ct = total consumption

68

income; rather they are dependent on longer term income expectations. The

Cp=kr,w,u×yp (2.10)

C=Ct+Cp (2.11)

y=yt+yp (2.12)

Where,

y = total income

yt = transitory income

yp = permanent income

C = total consumption

Ct = transitory consumption

Cp = permanent consumption

arguments r, w and u

r = rate of interest

69

carried our by Warren E. Weber have found that interest rates do significantly

interest rate and consumption in long run. The researcher has used more that

individuals over a longer horizon and the test was performed with the data of

the United States for the period 1930-65. The empirical test was carried out at

the 0.001 level of significance for more than one interest rate (Weber

short run is consistent with the long run result, with the quarterly data in 1971.

This time he used a single interest rate instead of using interest rate series

and found that only the corporate bond interest rates play and important role

found in his own 1975 paper (Weber 1975)Weber 1975 and by Springer

(1975)1975.

A recent study that is close to this research is the empirical test of the effect of

Shamika Ravi in 2009.This research was carried out after the change in

Indian banking legislation that offered higher interest rate on the deposits of

70

senior citizens (above sixty years). The banking legislation was established in

data from the National Sample Survey (NSS). The estimation of effect of

expenditures of households that are not eligible for the higher interest

criteria were based upon the age of the household members. When there is at

least one member who is sixty years or above was eligible for the higher

interest rate.The study has found a strong and significant short run impact on

saving and consumption of households. But it failed to explain the long term

effect due to the lack of sufficient data to explain the long term effect of

points. The effect was primarily in non-food, non-essential items which were

And to compare the results with prior to banking legislation, 2000-01 data was

consumption and saving who follow the life cycle model. According to life

cycle model people set a target and to reach that target they save. They

consider short planning horizons and plan to leave legacy for next generation.

This survey was concentrated on household consumption and saving with the

relation to change in interest rate in short run. The surveyor produced two fold

conclusions. First, he states that despite of large volume of studies, the result

of this topic, long rum, is not clear. Probably because individual research

71

represents the behaviour of some group of people and it is not clear about the

model which best describe the average consumer. Moreover, the researcher

claims that individuals might react to the change in interest rate in different

ways other than estimated by the existing models depending upon the nature

of liabilities and assets they hold. Thus the researcher finds it very difficult to

and saving with any confidence. Second, the survey finds a positive

relationship between interest rate and consumption in short run. The interest

uncertainties to the basic model might increase or decrease the value of the

Pourgerami and Ghouri state that the effect of interest rate on consumption

72

of empirical studies in this topic. However, most of the results do not coincide

or interest elasticity of consumption. But Balassa did not find a common point

in the study of the effect of interest rate on consumption with the use of two-

period model either. In the two-period model, both the substitution effect and

income effect act simultaneously which makes it difficult to know the net

effect. The price of the future consumption is decreased when there is rise in

interest rate due to the substitution effect. Now,the substitution effect will

come in play and people will save more today to support consumption in the

goods. But at the same time, the income effect comes into paly which

This results less saving. So the net result is dependent on the strength of

income and substitution effect. This situation makes the result contradicted

between interest rate and consumption in both the developed and developing

countries. But, it is true, all the results obtained from different researches do

1981)Gylfason 1981. This could be because most of the studies did not

accumulated since 1967 supports the view that consumption and interest rate

the quarterly time series data of United States with one percent statistical

73

indicates that the Gylfason’s finding on the relationship of interest rate and

One of the important authors who found the effect of interest rate on

interest rate and consumption is contradictory. This may be because they are

derived for a particular context and are based only on aggregate time series

labour income and property income. He has assumed that personal saving is

linearly related to the income and existing stock of financial income. Finally he

suggested that in short run any changes in interest rate is positively related to

the consumption. Moreover, the property income is higher than the labour

relationship between interest rate and consumption. This means, on the other

interest rate and the saving.One of them who supported the positive

relationship between interest rate and saving is Summers. He does not agree

with most of the theoretical finding about the interest elasticity of saving which

paper. In the examination of interest elasticity of saving, he did not agree with

the traditional two-period model, rather he assumed that all the income is

received in first period. In his framework he assumed that the conflict between

74

interest elasticity. The cut off point in the elasticity of substitution is one. When

the interest elasticity is greater than one, interest rate and saving are

positively related, saving increases with the increase in interest rate, but not

necessarily at the same rate and when the interest elasticity is less than unity,

interest rate and saving are negatively related, saving decreases with the

increase in the interest rate, but not necessarily at the same rate. Summers

suggested that the two important aspects of reality have been obscured in the

two -period model of interest elasticity of saving. One is that the result of net

positive saving is because the young who save are more numerous and

eventually consumed and there will be no bequests. The other is the concept

of time value of money and states that with the increase in interest rate the

present value of life time income decreases. Since all the incomes are

received in the first period, as interest rate increases the endowment declines

the Summers. When Evans considered the assumption of positive rate of time

75

not appear realistic and the interest elasticity of saving is generally above

annum, 4 percent after tax real rate of return per annum, 1.5 percent

population growth per annum, fifty years of economic lifetime and forty years

of earning span. When the lower rates of population growth and return were

assumed the interest elasticity of saving declined. Evans used different values

the risk aversion coefficient is higher the lower is the income wealth ratio,

He also noted that when the time preference rate is larger, higher is the

interest elasticity of saving and lower the wealth income ratio and saving rate.

realistic too. In youth, the interest elasticity of saving and negative and works

interest rate implies higher interest outlays rather than higher interest receipts.

“surprise” in transition. So, all the estimates made before the transition should

considered in his simulation analysis was the bequests. He claimed that the

objected to this statement and noted that “as long as any part of population is

76

saving with respect to the rate of return will be infinite” (Summers, 1984, pp.

250-51)

economic policy making. He employed 1929 to 1969 U.S. data to find the

relationship between private saving and rate of return. He has found interest

elasticity to be 0.4. This result tells us that interest rate and saving are

positively related. Thus, interest rate and consumption are negatively related

used 1897 to 1959 USA data to compute the interest elasticity of saving. He

found it to be positive with the value of 0.5. This means interest rate and

result. However, the author has considered the result to be very small. The

rather than current income. The available life time resource is dependent on

the age, length of life, the rate of interest and the consumer taste.

77

the consumption of nondurable goods and services when the nominal interest

rate was considered. However, the author further clarify that “thestrong

elasticity is to the nominal interest rate and does not appear if onlythe real

rate is allowed in the regression” (Blinder and Deaton 1985, p. 489). The

author suggests that the high value of interest elasticity does not remain same

wealth.

interest rate and consumption. However, the study has found a mixed result

on the matter of significances. The research was carried out by Horioka and

Wan (2007)2007 in 2007 using the Chinese data from the year1995 to2004.

The authors have considered several independent variables in his study. One

of them is the real interest to determine household saving. They have studied

the determinants of household saving in urban and rural area. The authors

interest rate and household saving in urban areas. But it has revealed a

positive and significant relationship between real interest rate and saving in

rural households. Finally the authors claim that the “real interest rate has a

significant positive impact on the household saving rate for ever sample

except for the sample of urban households, which suggests that the interest

78

An article by Attanasio and Weber with the title of “consumption growth, the

interest rate and aggregation” has tried to study the elasticity of substitution.

The data have been extracted from the National Accounts and the Family

Expenditure Survey. The estimation is based on the time series data taken

over 17 years period 1970 – 1986 in Britain. The result obtained on the

employment status etc. The authors have also doubted about the accuracy of

National Accounts data. The reasons for the consideration of building society

commonly held asset, net of tax for standard taxpayers as an asset return and

From the analysis of cohort data they revealed that the elasticity of

than the result they found on aggregate data (Attanasio and Weber

been very studies which studied the relationship between interest rate and

not agree upon a single result. Moreover, the effect of interest rate on

79

nondurable goods and service consumption. The presented model has used

post war U.S. data form 1950 to 1981. The used data has been extracted

from fourth quarter of each year. The author claims that the result obtained

from his model is within the range of estimates obtained from previous

studies. To ensure the estimated result gained from the used parameters, the

author has employed different equations with the structural parameters and

has obtained close results. The model has found that the change in real

interest rate highly affects the consumption of durables and nondurable goods

nondurable goods and services is positively related to the real interest rate.

corroborate the model findings, the author has utilized the U.S. data from1979

to 1982 to extract some facts. During the time, the inflation had decelerated to

5.9 percent from 9 percent. By the time three months Treasury bill rose to

10.7 percent from 10 percent. He further noted that during the time,

liquid assets, the monetary base and the rate of change in money supply as

and the others included furniture and household equipment. The data has

been taken on the quarterly basis from 1953 to 1964. The author has used

80

Aaalong term corporate bonds yield as interest rate. He found that the effect

by Heim (2009) to determine the consumer goods and services has been able

durables. Heim used 1960 to 2000 U.S. data to examine the trend in demand

nondurable and service. Heim indicated that 92% of total consumer demand

is explained by five drivers, which are interest rates, the exchange rate, credit

rate plays a least significant role to drive the consumption. He found that the

interest rate plays no role in the consumption of nondurables and services like

entertainment, perhaps the most flexible part of household budget. But the

The author suspects that the reason for being less significant may be

William Poole (1972)1972 thinks that most of the studies carried out for the

durable and non-durable goods. The substitution effect determines the pattern

81

of allocation of available resources over time and for the present condition,

durable goods. But the author suggests other types of effects, the effect of

inflation and the treatment of gross interest income of households should not

rate and real interest rate. Further he noted that “following a common practice

imputed” (Poole, 1972, p. 212). The author has considered the durable goods

calculated when the real value of fixed income assets are considered. While

Similarly, this calculation works for the deflation premium so, the issues are

1972.

82

It is widely accepted truth that the individuals are risk averse and risk is

facts regarding the future uncertainty and the present consumption. He has

considered two types of uncertainties to causing the risk; income risk and

capital risk. The author has made some distinction between income risk and

capital risk. He noted that “under income risk, increased saving raises the

unexpected” (Sandmo, 1970, p.354). Hence, with the increased future risk

However, under the capital risk it is not the same case. In case of capital, both

the mean and variance of future consumption increases with the increase in

saving, which results the conflicting decision between substitution and income

effect between income and substitution effect but the result can not be known

nation. Feldstein and Tsiang have tried to reveal some facts about the interest

rate, taxation and the saving incentives. The authors have noticed two main

advantage of tax policy over interest rate policy on saving incentives. When

the interest rate is changed it affects every individual buttax may not do the

population. This caused change in net yield to some groups but not for others.

83

efficient to interest rate change. The authors suggest that the effect of interest

neither. The authors have found a positive relationship between interest rate

and saving. This means, there exists a negative relationship between interest

rate and consumption. According to the authors the effect of change interest

rate on saving is high and positive if the individual is neither saver nor

borrower before the change in interest rate. Asimilar relation exists with some

moderate value when the individual is net borrower before the change in

interest rate. If the individual is saver then the effect will be reduced with the

1968.

The study of change in interest rate and its effect on consumption or saving

regarding this topic. Among them some of the researchers have found

the model of analysis. Zietz(1984)1984 has found a similar result that the

parameters.The author has used the quarterly time series data for all the

variables from the data bank of the Federal Reserve Board. The considered

basis. The data samples used are from the year 1953 to 1980 of the US

considered. For instance, there are numbers of interest rate in the market

and, unfortunately, none of them represent all of them. This situation makes it

84

representing all the individuals. When the author used Aaa corporate bond

while on the other hand using three years government securities as the rate of

return the interest elasticity of saving was found to be 0.01 on the analysis of

sample period data. However, if the data is taken from some particular year,

0.224 and as low as 0.093 corresponding to sample period result 0.01. The

results obtained from his estimates the author suggests that the selection of

interest rate and the point of evaluation significantly alter the findings of

interest elasticity of saving. This suggests that the interest elasticity of saving

Carlino’s finding also contradicts with Zietz’s (1984) finding in the matter of

consumption and saving, most of the researchers agree that interest rate is

an important variable for policy makers. It is believed that with the increase in

interest rate, substitution effect comes into play, which substitutes future

the present discounted value of total life time income from the resources.

impossible, to know the net resulting effect between income effect and

85

1998.

Fetzer has tried to reveal some of the facts about the relationship between

interest rate and intertemporal substitution. The author believes that saving

and borrowing smooth the consumption at the time when interest rate

interest rate falls. The author argues that most of the papers have used

market interest rate as their modelling interest rate for all households, though

it is not realistic to assume all house holds can lend or borrow at his interest

rate. Another important fact that author has considered is lending and

market interest rates may not play any role. In such situations the motivating

Indian households instead of using an aggregate data. The author found that

always monotonic. Actual borrowing costs are not same for all individuals.

Some pay higher cost of borrowing as compared to others even though the

observed interest rate is same. The author further noted that “consumption

growth is lower for low interest rates (between zero and 12 percent) and

higher for high interest (over 24 percent)” (Fetzer 1998, p.17). However, the

86

compared to the lower range interest rates (between zero percent and 12

percent).

different variables in different situation and time frame. The review of the

CHAPTER THREE

30 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction

the economies and this accounts around 65% in UK. So, the private

consumption. However, the result of most of the studies does not coincide on

87

a single point result. “Theoretically, the interest rate has an ambiguous effect

income encouraging more consumption” (Fetzer, 1998, p.1). This paper will

try to reveal some of the facts about the effect of interest rate on household

consumption.

There are hardly any economic papers which do not talk about the interest

rates. Perhaps, interest rates are the most closely watched element in the

rates are the primary tool to consider while making investments. “Interest

rates are the most pervasive elements in the financial world. They affect

every nook and cranny of financial markets.” (Ritter, Silber et al. 1991)Ritter,

Silber et al. 1991. Interest rate is not only important for the investors but also

for the individuals and the policy makers. Policy makers utilize the interest

rate to stabilize the economy through the interest rate targeting. Further more

determined by the rate of interest (other risk factors being equal). For the

spend or to save for the future consumption. Being such an important element

in the financial and economic world was the prime factor for the selection of

this topic.

88

Research approach defines the way how the research will be started and

often, informally, called “bottom up” approach. This dissertation has adopted

the interest rate and the consumption. So, this research is based on an

some modifications and with the help of observed set of data this dissertation

will try to find a specific relationship between interest rate and consumption.

give a precise value. Moreover, many researches do not agree on sign. Some

consumption

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1971; Springer 1975; Elmendorf and System 1996; Horioka and Wan 2007;

System 1996Horioka and Wan 2007Kapoor and Ravi 2009. Similarly we can

find the researches which have found negative relationship between interest

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103

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104

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105

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125

Mishkin 1976; Boskin 1978; Gylfason 1981; Summers 1981; Carlino 1982;

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1989; Pourgerami and Ghouri 1991; Attanasio and Weber 1993; Fernandez-

brick on it. This dissertation has tried to explore the relationship between

interest rate and consumption, whether they are interest rate is positively

explanatory researches.

any other” (Saunders et al., 2009, p.141). The selection of research strategy

140

depends on the questions that the paper is trying to answer and the available

Most of the economic researchers employ the case study strategy. The case

organization, behaviour etcetera. However, it is not the only one strategy they

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Balassa 1989; Pourgerami and Ghouri 1991; Fetzer 1998; Horioka and Wan

Ghouri 1991Fetzer 1998Horioka and Wan 2007Kapoor and Ravi 2009 have

used the case study strategy with survey strategy. This dissertation has tried

to use case study research strategy. This dissertation has taken the

150

data of the United Kingdom has been observed over the period of 20 years

from 1985 to 2005, for long-run, to reach the conclusion. For short-run the

quarterly data has been employed over the 5 years period from 2000 to 2005.

Research tools are those which are used for the analysis of observation. The

natures of the tools are different for types of analysis. Those analysis tools

which are used for qualitative analysis may not be appropriate for the

quantitative analysis and similarly those tools which are used for quantitative

analysis may not appropriate for the qualitative analysis. In case of business

the other hand, the tools used for the quantitative analysis are more technical.

employed empirical econometrical tools for the analysis of the observed data.

Collection of data is one of the most important tasks in the research. It can be

and multiple methods. Mono method of data collection employs single data

collection techniques. In the recent years mixed method of data collection has

developed and been able to gain the popularity. However, the choice of data

collection is determined not only by the quality of data collection method but

also by some other factors which have equal importance such as available

151

time, and other resources. The collection of data is entirely secondary data

Time horizon is related to the collection of data. Time horizon defines whether

time or from a period of time frame. When the data are collected from a

studies. “The main strength of longitudinal research is the capacity that it has

dissertation has tried to study the effect of interest rate on consumption and

GDP in United Kingdom over a period of 20 years from the year 1985 to 2005

for the long-run and over the period of 5 years from the year 2000 to 2005.

There are different ways of collecting data. The technique used for data

sources of data and access to data play a vital role in research design. The

These data are mainly collected from the official website of Bank of England

Fund (IMF) and the UK National Statistics. However, the require data may

also be collected from the journal articles, news papers and other trusted and

reliable websites. Since all three primary sources of information are public

institutions, all the data required to conduct this dissertation are freely

152

and government investment data. All the required data regarding the interest

rate has been extracted from the official website of Bank of England and

remaining all the data have been collected from the official website of UK

National Statistics.

value keeps varying during the execution of the model. However, variation in

one variable can be the result of variation in another variable. In such case,

The dependent variables hold the primary interest of the research. In this

research household consumption and GDP of the United Kingdom have been

investment.

variable could be only the numerical correlation or could be cause and effect

disposable income, official bank rate and previous year’s consumption have

153

interest rate have been considered as independent variables. And for the

variable.

In most of the countries consumption occupies the largest chunk of GDP and

regarding the consumption among them some of the researchers have tried to

interest rate and consumption, while others commented that it was not

findings could be the result of the assumptions regarding the models, other

In this dissertation a consumption function has been defined whose two main

determinants are income and interest rate (as most previous studies have

done), and the real exchange rate has been added to the model as another

determinant. Thus, the long-run consumption function in this study takes the

following form:

lnCt=α+βlnyt+ylnrt+φlnREt+εt (3.1)

and RE is the real effective exchange rate. The expectation is that the

154

To estimate the long-run relationship between the dependent variable and the

log-linear form. Here, Wt is the nominal wage, Ptis the average price level, Ut

lnWt=α+βlnPt+γlnUt+φlnAt+εt (3.2)

the real investment is a function of the real income, nominal interest rate and

real exchange rate. The long run investment function, therefore, takes the

following form:

lnIt=α+βlnyt+γlnrt+φlnREt+εt (3.3)

Where I is real investment; Y is real income, r is the nominal interest rate; and

The main assumption of this theory is the long adjustment lag of wages

from the long-run effects. This dissertation introduces the short-run dynamics

proxy for the lagged error term from (3.1) are jointly significant (i.e.

values that take into consideration the integration order of all variables. This

155

The upper-bound critical values are tabulated by assuming that all variables

are of first order integration, and the lower-bound critical values are tabulated

3.12 Hypothesis

variables. To determine the long run relationship between the variables, the

calculated F must be greater than the upper bound critical values. If the

calculated F is less than its lower-bound critical value, on the other hand, we

do not reject the null hypothesis. Meanwhile, if the calculated F lies between

the upper-bound critical value and the lower-bound critical value, the result is

included in the models. The value of the study is dependent on various factors

that cause error in the study. Error might occur during model development,

3.13.1 Reliability

reliability in this dissertation only one source of data has been used. Since

156

this source is data the Bank of England and UK National Statistics they are

3.13.2 Validity

Validity is the strength of conclusion that can be matched with the available

The Bank of England and the UK National Statistics are regarded as a valid

source of data.

of literature lets the researcher know what had already searched and what

has been found. Besides this, the review of the literature makes the

circumstances under which the research was carried out (Boskin 1978;

interest rate, this research expects the negative relationship of interest rate

with both the consumption and the GDP in the United Kingdom.

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CHAPTER FOUR

40 DATA ANALYSIS

4.1 Introduction

interest rates may affect other factors of the economy. For instance,

decrease the consumption, and affect the exchange rates and finally may

influence the GDP of the nation. However, the effect of the interest rate on

and consumption sensitivity degree to the real interest rate. In this paper,

macroeconomic idea which is not necessarily stable over time.He argues that

their consumption. Thus, expectations are playing a key role in his model. Any

change in consumption with regard to change in real interest rate is called the

158

from today until tomorrow (day to day) as a result of a change in the interest

rate, leads to four important issues: First, an increase in interest rate will lead

aggregate demand increase. Second, taxing the interest income will create a

deadweight loss. Third, relative to other issues, national debt does not look

very important. Fourth, during the business cycles, consumption moves in the

It is important to mention that over the past three decades, most of the

using the consumption function. Several conclusions have been derived from

the estimation of the Euler equations. For example, according to Hansen and

rejects the representative agent's hypothesis model. On the other hand, some

consumers' behavior.

Campbell and Mankiw (1989) mainly argued about the effect of stock price

usually consumes their permanent income, but at the same time they do not

changes. The second type is those consumers who prefer to consume their

159

current income and do not care about their permanent income. After testing

Mankiw(1989)1989 not only paid attention to the random walk effect, but they

interest rate, consumers’ consumption and the GDP of the UK. A nation’s

economic indicators. But its importance has long grown beyond its primary

progress. The opening citation illustrates the state of affairs rather well. What

existence. From this reductionist attitude, it is indeed only a very small step

towards equating the, in whichever way measured, economic good with the

than the United States in GDP per capita terms: ‘The UK is only barely

catching up. The rest is not only poorer but becoming even more poor’

problem is not fixed soon. His solution is to make Europe grow faster in order

to prevent the ‘gap in wealth’ from widening. The grave social and

160

be of no concern.

Milner 2006)Seager and Milner 2006, once called on Britain ‘to become "an

evangelist for globalisation", arguing free trade, open markets and flexibility

were the preconditions of success in the global economy.’ There is little doubt

free trade, open markets and flexibility as absolute positives and denies

counter perspectives any legitimacy (e.g. restricted trade to protect social and

environmental standards).

Environment; Food & Rural Affairs, 2003) states as the overarching objective

for Britain: ‘Our economy must continue to grow’, without giving reasons or

Presumably some people may also die, species may go extinct, coastal areas

and islands may disappear, nations may collapse, and countless people may

see their way of life destroyed, but there does not seem to be a more

impending tragedy than in the loss of a fifth of global GDP (most of which can

actually only be lost in the rich countries of the North and not where the

The quintessence of these examples is a simple one. GDP figures and other

perceive the world. Daly and Cobb (Daly, Cobb et al. 1994, P. 63) observe

general public’ and all assume that GDP ‘is closely bound up with human

161

welfare’. Obviously – and this shall not be disputed in this thesis – there are

very good reasons for focusing on the economic aspects of life. However,

there are also other things we can and should consider when we judge the

standing of a nation in the world and its citizens’ quality of life. Our culture

In light of all that, this thesis is about the very subject matter that is also at the

following words to describe it: ‘The term “social welfare” (…) refers to the

“ethical value” or the “goodness” of the state of affairs of the society’ (Sen,

1991, P.15). Indeed, welfare is one of the most central ideas surrounding

that the English language has produced many linguistic relatives such as well-

attention in its own right, but even more so in light of the dominance of the

indicators has become the default mode, then this research project is about

The history of the idea of economic growth is diverse and in parts surprising.

potential for increasing social utility. However, they had not yet produced any

coherent theoretical framework; nor did they have the means and concepts to

macroeconomics was not in fashion until Keynes’ general theory was noticed

162

in the 1930s. Eventually, theories of economic growth gained ground after the

national accounts provided hard figures that could be put into models

simply is the figure that comes out of an intelligence test – is also applicable

output (plus some imputations) either in total or per capita (Easterlin, 1996, P

31).

balanced by today’s standards (e.g. Eltis, 1966). The links between growth

population growth etc. – were recognised and discussed, but it was not yet

asserted that economic growth would always be the best or only answer to

most economic, social or fiscal problems (there is also policy, distribution and

innovation). Crucially, there was awareness that growth can entail social costs

purpose’ (Tobin, 1966, P. 94). Naturally, the arms-race with the Soviet Union

1964).

place. Simon Kuznets and other national accounts pioneers used their new

growth around the ‘golden’ liberal age of the early 19th century. Although

163

Questioning the desirability of growth or the validity of GDP is for the most

has been questioning the wisdom of excluding the resource and carrying

and growth models are constructed in such a way that there is no physical

growing economy seems to clash with the physical realities of the world we

such as the World Bank, the OECD and the World Economic Forum. The

labour markets, education systems and other social arenas to promote growth

(Sykes & OECD, 2004). By implication, the close production-welfare link that

accounts is now widely taken for granted. As is his ‘trickle down’ theory

164

The data for this study was collected from the website of Bank of England,

about the interest rates and exchange rates was accessed from the official

Criterion (AIC) is employed to select an optimum model for each country. The

Panel A: Short-run Coefficient Estimates

Variables Lag order

1 1 2 3

ALnY 1.22(6.05) -0.80(3.16) 0.62(2,89) 0.09(0.79)

ALnr -0.03(3.35) -0.02(1.69) 0.06(5.50) -0.03(2.31)

ALnER 0.05(1.43) 0.17(5.03) 0.02(0.78) -0.07(2.68)

Panel B: Long-run Coefficient Estimates

Constant LnY LnER Lnr

-4.13(4.69) 2.92(18.00) -0.70(4.72) 0.20(3.32)

Note: Absolute values of the t-ratios inside the parentheses.

coefficient estimates for the real exchange rate are reported. Tables 1 which

is reporting the short-run results, indicate that the real exchange rate carries

the long run only in the country. In U.K., the real exchange rate carries a

coefficient that is significant at the 5% confidence level. This may imply that

either for the country our estimation period is not long enough during which

165

wages adjusts to inflation or there are wage-price rigidities that slow down the

adjustment process. Of course, to make sure our long-run findings are not

must be established. Based on the results which are reported in Tables 1, the

estimated long-run coefficient is significant for the UK. Moreover, the long-run

results show that the real income (Ln Y) has a significant positive coefficient

effect of nominal interest rate (Ln r), the results in Table 1 actually show that

32). On the other hand, Weber (Weber 1970)Weber 1970 and Springer

future incomes from each dollar saved in the current period and thus increase

Table 2 tabulates the results of the F-test for cointegration along with other

166

value of 3.77 in most of the countries, including all ten countries in which

with the lagged error correction term, the model is estimated one more time at

equilibrium.

Diagnostics Statistics

F at optimal lags ECMt-1 LM RESET Normality CUSUM CUSUMSQ Adj.

Country

R2

Mexico 13.51 -0.44(7.96) 3.49 7.47 0.38 S US 0.94

Morocco 13.97 -0.99(8.43) 7.03 0.36 0.83 S S 0.94

New Zealand 4.81 -.08(4.45) 0.18 4.21 3.22 S S 0.87

Niger 2.65 -0.58(3.64) 0.20 0.05 1.75 S S 0.91

Nigeria 2.08 -0.19(1.69) 11.37 1.15 6.79 S S 0.10

Norway 5.89 -0.14(5.34) 1.19 5.04 5.01 S S 0.83

Pakistan 5.64 -0.14(5.43) 0.24 -0.16 0.30 S S 0.79

Philippines 3.93 -0.04(4.42) 1.76 16.26 4.32 S S 0.86

Senegal 9.24 -0.19(6.93) 6.26 0.86 12.97 S S 0.89

Singapore 2.64 -0.58(3.63) 0.20 0.05 1.75 S S 0.90

South Africa 4.43 -0.15(4.71) 2.04 0.01 1.29 S S 0.89

Spain 5.76 -2.51(5.63) 0.20 0.05 1.75 S S 0.80

Sri Lanka 6.92 -0.77(5.75) 1.23 0.29 0.28 S S 0.83

Sweden 13.35 -0.23(8.17) 12.56 4.55 3.52 S S 0.90

Thailand 14.29 -0.06(7.71) 0.01 -0.06 1.74 S S 0.67

Tunisia 14.30 -0.15(7.75) 0.04 0.06 1.74 S S 0.67

UK 9.34 -0.06(7.71) 0.03 1.60 1.98 S S 0.99

US 13.71 -0.22(8.35) 3.85 1.37 0.69 S S 0.96

Venezuela 1.53 0.01(2.18) 0.80 4.02 2.94 S S 0.07

Zambia 12.24 -0.38(7.89) 4.41 0.12 0.15 S S 0.92

correction term, say, ECM. Then lagged level variables in (2) are replaced by

ECMt-i and the new model that includes ECMt-i is re-estimated one more time

(at the same lags as before). A significantly negative coefficient obtained for

cointegration among the variables. For more clear explanation and derivation

167

Moreover, three additional statistics are also reported: the Lagrange multiplier

test (LM) for residual serial correlation; Ramsey's RESET test for functional

kurtosis of residuals. For most countries, these statistics are less than their

majority of the estimated models are stable as indicated by "S" under two

stability test statistics, i.e, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ, applied to the residuals of

to examine its main assumption of the long lag structure in the adjustment of

wages to inflation. This lag leads to income redistribution from fixed income

groups or relatively poorer groups of the economy, who have a high MPC, to

richer groups, who have a low MPC. Eventually, it is expected that inflationary

if the adjustment between inflation and wages does not take place in the

short-run, the wage earners who receive fixed incomes will be well behind the

168

However, in the long run, the wages and prices might catch up and wages

(1997, 1999) is estimated in this section. In this model, the nominal wage rate

labour productivity per hour and inflation are the independent variables. The

dissertation is to find out the adjustment time between inflation and wages

unemployment and change in the nominal wage rate was explained for the

first time by Philips (1958). This model, popular as the Philips-curve model,

played a crucial role in macroeconomic studies during the 1960s and 1970s.

into the original Philips-curve model increased its explanatory power and

look at the empirical foundations of the Philips curve. Relying on micro wage

and Katz (1997, 1999) theoretically and empirically investigate the role of an

Poeck and Merlevede (1999) used different approach. They consider the

169

Moreover, Gali, Gertler and Lopez- Salido (2001), Laxton, Rose and

The past decade has witnessed the emergence of a new popular framework

for monetary policy analysis, the so-called New Keynesian model. Following

Taylor (1980) and Calvo (1983), the Philips-curve literature has moved toward

Clarida, Gali and Gertler (1999) use this model in derivation of principles on

despite the sticky prices in this model, the inflation rate changes rapidly. It is

worth noting that Gordon (1997), in his empirical study, gives a higher

To examine the adjustment time between inflation and wages as the main

assumption of Alexander's theory, the next section uses the Blanchard, Katz

(1997, 1999) wage-price Philips-curve model estimated for both the short run

To estimate the long-run relationship between the dependent variable and the

log-linear form. Here, Wt is the nominal wage, P1 is the average price level,

Utis the unemployment rate, and At is labour productivity per hour. The

170

lnWt=α+βlnPt+γlnUt+φlnAt+εt (4.1)

Since the main purpose of this chapter is to distinguish the short-run effects of

obtained by the estimates of ci’s and its long-run effects by the estimate of φ

lagged-level variables as a proxy for the lagged-error term from (4.2) are

For wage equation, annual data over the period 1975-2006 was available

from the sources mentioned in previous section. The main restriction for

extending the list of countries beyond the current sample was unavailability of

wage index and unemployment rate. A maximum of four lags are imposed on

criterion (AIC) is used in selecting the optimum models. The results from each

Philips Curve

Country Short-Run coefficient Estimate Long-Run coefficient Estimates

Philippines 0.29(3.03) -0.51(4.06) -0.57(4.06) -0.29(1.88) -0.20(0.95) 1.25(24.44) -0.39(2.23) 0.01(2.41)

171

Considering Table 3, which reports the results for the short-run effects of

inflation on the nominal wage rate in each country, there is evidence that at

the 5% significance level there are 4 countries with at least one significant

short-run coefficient, implying that inflation affects wages in the short run. The

list includes U.K. and U.S. Out of these countries, the estimated coefficient is

negatively affects the wages in the short run. The short-run effects have

lasted into the long run. The long-run results show that, at the 5% confidence

level, the inflation rate has a significant effect on wages in 2 countries and is

expectedly positive in all cases, again supporting the argument that the

relationship between wages and prices will be restored and that they will

catch up in the long run. Moreover, the long-run results show that in 4 of 6

unemployment rate and nominal wage rate. In these countries, the estimated

labour productivity per hour (Ln A), in these countries in the sample (UK, US

coefficient is positive in all the countries implying that labour productivity has a

positive impact on the nominal wage rate in these countries. However, these

long-run effects would be meaningful only if the variables in the model are

cointegrated.

The results of the F-test and other diagnostics are reported in Table 3. This

result reveals that the F-statistic for joint significance of lagged variables, or

for their cointegration, is greater than its critical value of 4.14 in these

Belgium, Chile, Korea, Spain and Sri Lanka, these five countries are added to

172

in 2 countries.

Furthermore, the long-run result shows that the estimated coefficient for the

theory.

Based on these results, it would be concluded that, over the study period

observed in the majority of countries in the sample. These findings show the

included in this study, implying that the link between these two variables is

eventually catch up with prices in the long run, the long-run results show that

theory. This might be explained by the possibility that the estimation period is

not long enough for these countries to allow wages adjust to inflation or that

there are wage-price rigidities in these countries that slow down the

adjustment process.

focused on the two main models of Jorgensen (1963) and Tobin (1969).

Jorgensen's (1963) early work has served as a base for several later works.

Examples are Abel and Blanchard (Blanchard and Katz 1997)Blanchard and

Katz 1997, Fazzari et al. (1988), Chirinko and Schaller (1995), Worthington

(1995), and Chirinko et al. (1999). Based on Jorgensen's model (1963), the

173

level of investment is related to the capital output ratio and the real cost of

investment (Driver and Moretón (1991), Ferderer (1993) and Price (1996)).

a firm will invest if the expected NPV is positive and will not invest if it is

decision. On the other hand, there has always been an argument about the

investment decisions was by Dixit and Pindyck (1994). They evaluated the

waiting for investment. They limit their model to the effect of Net Present

types of industries that would gain and lose, respectively, as a result of this

174

Germany, Italy, U.K, and the U.S. and tested both Jorgensen's model and

Tobin's Q.

other economists in the recent years. For example, Wong (2007) looks at the

that for relatively safe projects, greater uncertainty shortens the expected

exercise time and thus increases the investment level. This conclusion is not

between investment and uncertainty is correct only for high growth projects.

Interestingly, other than a few papers written by Goldberg (1993, 1995, 1999)

and Blecker (2007, 2009) the effect of exchange rate on investment has not

received enough empirical attention. In her 1993 and 1999 works, Goldberg

manufacturing industries at the two digit level of industrial aggregation for the

U.S, Japan, U.K and Canada. She shows that investment responsiveness to

quite different than Campa and Goldberg's (1995, 1999). The main reasons

for this difference are the methodologies and different level of data

manufacturing. In his study, net profits for cash flow are measured in levels as

manufacturing sector. His findings indicate that the effect of exchange rate on

175

He eventually argues that real appreciation of the dollar since 1995 has hurt

manufacturing investment and the capital stock would have been much higher

in 2004 if the dollar had not appreciated after 1995. He shows that in US

manufacturing, investment would have been 61% higher and the capital stock

would have been 17% higher in 2004 if the dollar had not appreciated after

1995.

which Mexico's growth rate, real interest rate, real oil prices, and the real

exchange rate are the main determinants of investment. His findings indicate

that the real value of the peso has a positive direct effect on investment.

However, this effect was cancelled by the contractionary effects that the

investment function. The basic set up in this part is similar to the models in

chapter two of this thesis. Following the main argument of this dissertation,

the real investment is a function of the real income, nominal interest rate and

real exchange rate. The long run investment function, therefore, takes the

following form:

lnIt=α+βlnyt+γlnrt+φlnREt+εt (4.3)

Where I is real investment; Y is real income, r is the nominal interest rate; and

RE is the real exchange rate. Based on the theory, if wages do not adjust to

from workers to producers in the form of higher profit. The high profit could

give incentive to producers, who will be more optimistic about future business

176

opportunities and will invest more. Thus, it is expected that higher income

declined profit will more than offset the gain due to income redistribution, and

the estimate of f could then be positive. Estimating (4.3) provides the long-run

distinguish the short-run effects from the long-run effects, (4.3) is re-written in

error-correction term.

is assessed by the estimates of e,'s and its long-run effects by the estimate of

variables in (4.4), the F- test is applied for their joint significance. The long-run

effects would be meaningful if the lagged level variables as a proxy for lagged

error term from (4.3) are jointly significant. The F-table tabulated by Pesaran

et al. (2001) has new upper- and lower-bound critical values. To support joint

among them, the calculated F-statistic must be greater than the upperbound

177

and the new model that includes ECM,.¡ is re-estimated (at the same lags as

equilibrium.

The error-correction model (4.4) is estimated using annual data for our period

optimum lags. The F-test is then carried out at optimum lags. The results are

clear evidence that there is at least one significant coefficient in the results for

Philippines, Spain, Sweden, Tunisia, U.K., the U.S., and Venezuela, which

depreciation raises the cost of imported inputs and results in a reduced profit;

estimation results, reported in Tables 4 reveal that at the 10% level, exchange

178

Africa, Spain, U.K. and Venezuela). While the long-run effect is negative in 10

strong link between investment and the aggregate business cycle. As the

long-run coefficient in half of the countries and in the majority of them that

Panel A: Short-run Coefficient Estimates

Variables Lag order

0 1 2 3

∆LnY 1.75(1.15) -3.21(1.57) -2.33(1.32) -3.07(2.22

∆Lnr 0.27(2.68) -0.26(2.26) -0.19 (1.73)

∆LnER -0.02(0.11) 1.01(3.05) 0.69(1.77) 0.55(1.91)

Panel B: Long-run Coefficient Estimates

Constant LnY LnER Lnr

12.78(15.47) 3.67(30.13) 0.87(7.34) 0.41(7.78

between interest rate and investment might exist. According to him, a positive

variance of interest rate is positively related to the level of interest rate and to

table 104 and looking at the results of the F-test for joint significance of

179

significant negative coefficient for ECM also implies that the adjustment of

values.

You mix up methodology issues with data analysis, you use so many differnet

models and you present them in different ways. Idon't really see what tests

180

CHAPTER FIVE

approach to the trade balance. He argued that the only way devaluation could

workers with high MPC will lose, and capital owners with low MPC will gain.

included in the models. Since wages may not adjust to inflation in the short

run but they do so in the long run, a methodology that distinguishes the short-

181

the short run but not in the long run. This is consistent with the expectation as

wages do not adjust to inflation in the short run but they do in the long run. Or,

on the other hand, it might be an evidence for the fact that the idea of older

models. However, another explanation for this finding might be that estimation

period for these countries is not long enough during which wages adjust to

inflation.

The estimated results of the consumption model shows that the short-run

effects last into the long run only in 21 countries. Again, this may imply that

either for these countries our estimation period is not long enough during

rigidities that slow down the adjustment process. Furthermore, while in nine

that the link between domestic investment and the exchange rate is

unavoidable. However, the short-run effects lasted into the long run only in 21

countries.

wages and inflation plays a key role in this theory. Finally, as an attempt to

show the relationship between wages and inflation both in the short run and

model for a group of countries whose data was available. Based on the

the short run but not in the long run. Out of these 24 countries, the estimated

182

that inflation negatively affects the wages in the short run. In 21 of the 24

countries, short-run effects have lasted into the long run. The long-run results

show that the inflation rate has a significant effect on wages in 2 1 countries

and is expectedly positive in all cases, again supporting the argument that the

relationship between wages and prices will be restored and that they will

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