Tax rate 50%

Discount rate 10%

Assumptions NPV (JPY Billion)
Variable Pessmistic Expected Optimistic Pessmistic
1 Market size 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000
2 Market share 4% 10% 16%
3 Unit price 350,000 375,000 380,000
4 Unit varince cost 360,000 300,000 275,000
5 Fixed cost 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000

Year 0 1 2 3
Investment - 15,000,000,000
Market size 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
Market share 10% 10% 10%
Unit price 375,000 375,000 375,000
Unit varince cost 300,000 300,000 300,000
Fixed cost 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

CALCULATE PROJECT'S NPV

Investment - 15,000,000,000
Revenue 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000
Variable cost 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000
Fixed cost 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
Tax 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Net profit 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
OCF 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
NCF - 15,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

NPV 3,433,701,317.1

Pessmistic Expected Optimistic Break-even

1 Market size 900,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 850,982
3,433,701,317 1,129,488,652 3,433,701,317 5,737,913,982 -

2 Market share 4% 10% 16%

3,433,701,317 - 10,391,574,671 3,433,701,317 17,258,977,305

3 Unit price 350,000 375,000 380,000

3,433,701,317 - 4,247,007,565 3,433,701,317 4,969,843,094

4 Unit varince cost 360,000 300,000 275,000 320,000

3,433,701,317 - 15,000,000,000 3,433,701,317 11,114,410,199 - 2,710,865,789
NPV (JPY Billion)
Expected Optimistic
3,433,701,317.1
3,433,701,317.1
3,433,701,317.1
3,433,701,317.1
3,433,701,317.1

4 5 6 7 8

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000
300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000

30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

Step 1 Choose table

Step 2 Data Tab -> What-if analysis -> Data table
Step 3 Choose cell of Variance in "Row input cell"
 9 10

1,000,000 1,000,000
10% 10%
375,000 375,000
300,000 300,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000
30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
Tax rate 50%
Discount rate 10%

Variables Base case High oil price and Recession Case Low Oil Price Case
Market size 1,000,000 800,000 1,100,000
Market share 10% 13% 8%
Unit price 375,000 431,250 337,500
Unit varince cost 300,000 345,000 270,000
Fixed cost 3,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 2,700,000,000

High Oil Price and Recession Case

Year 0 1 2
Investment - 15,000,000,000
Revenue 44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000
Variable cost 35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000
Fixed cost 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000
Tax 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000
Net profit 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000
OCF 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000
NCF - 15,000,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000

NPV 6,413,816,363.38

Low Oil Price

Year 0 1 2
Investment - 15,000,000,000
Revenue 29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000
Variable cost 23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000
Fixed cost 2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000
Tax 870,000,000 870,000,000
Net profit 870,000,000 870,000,000
OCF 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000
NCF - 15,000,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000

NPV - 437,375,959.48
 3 4 5 6 7

44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000

35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000
3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000
1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000
1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000
3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000
3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000

3 4 5 6 7

29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000

23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000
2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000
870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000
870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000
2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000
2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000
 8 9 10

44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000 44,850,000,000

35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000 35,880,000,000
3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000 3,970,000,000
1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000
1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000 1,985,000,000
3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000
3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000 3,485,000,000

8 9 10

29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000 29,700,000,000

23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000 23,760,000,000
2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000 2,700,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000 1,740,000,000
870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000
870,000,000 870,000,000 870,000,000
2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000
2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000 2,370,000,000
 Tax rate 50%
Discount rate 10%
Assumptions
Variable Base case High oil price and Reces Low Oil Price Case
1 Market size 1,100,000 800,000 1,100,000
2 Market share 10% 13% 8%
3 Unit price 400,000 431,250 337,500
4 Unit varince cost 360,000 345,000 270,000
5 Fixed cost 2,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 2,700,000,000

Year 0 1 2
Investment - 15,000,000,000
Market size 1,100,000 1,100,000
Market share 10% 10%
Unit price 400,000 400,000
Unit varince cost 360,000 360,000
Fixed cost 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000

CALCULATE PROJECT'S NPV

Investment - 15,000,000,000
Revenue 44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000
Variable cost 39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000
Fixed cost 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 900,000,000 900,000,000
Tax 450,000,000 450,000,000
Net profit 450,000,000 450,000,000
OCF 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000
NCF - 15,000,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000

NPV - 3,018,094,143.9
 Step 1 Choose table
Step 2 Data Tab -> What-if analysis -> Scenario Manager
Step 3 Add data of case
Step 4 Choose case and show

3 4 5 6 7

1,100,000 1,100,000 1,100,000 1,100,000 1,100,000

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
360,000 360,000 360,000 360,000 360,000
2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000

44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000

39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000
2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000
450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000
450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000
1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000
1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000
 8 9 10

1,100,000 1,100,000 1,100,000

10% 10% 10%
400,000 400,000 400,000
360,000 360,000 360,000
2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000

44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000 44,000,000,000

39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000 39,600,000,000
2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
900,000,000 900,000,000 900,000,000
450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000
450,000,000 450,000,000 450,000,000
1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000
1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000 1,950,000,000
Break-even point base on NPV
Year 0 Year 1-10 Break-even
Investment - 15,000,000,000 PVIFA
Unit sales 85,098 CF
Unit price 375,000 Sales at break-even
Revenue 31,911,803,644
Unit Variable cost 300,000 Use Solver in Data tab
Variable costs 25,529,442,915
Fixed costs 3,000,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 1,882,360,729
Tax 941,180,364
Net profit 941,180,364
OCF 2,441,180,364
NPV - 3,434
Discount rate, r 10%
Tax rate 50%

Inflows Outflows
Unit sales Revenue Investment Variable Costs Fixed costs
Thousands Year 1-10 Year 0 Year 1-10
0 0 15 0 3
85.1 31.9125 15 25.53 3
100 37.5 15 30 3
200 75 15 60 3

Break-even point base on accounting

Year 0 Year 1-10
Investment - 15,000,000,000
Unit sales 60,000
Unit price 375,000
Revenue 22,500,000,000
Unit Variable cost 300,000 Use Solver in Data tab
Variable costs 18,000,000,000
Fixed costs 3,000,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit -
Tax -
Net profit -
OCF 1,500,000,000
NPV -
Discount rate, r 10%
Tax rate 50%

Unit sales Revenue Variable Costs Fixed costs Depreciation

Thousands Year 1-10
 0 0 0 3 1.5
60 22.5 18 3 1.5
100 37.5 30 3 1.5
200 75 60 3 1.5
 500.0
6.145
2,441,180,923 450.0
85,098 400.0
350.0
lver in Data tab
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
-
0 85.1 100 200

Inflows Outflows

Outflows
Taxes PV NPV
ear 1-10 Inflows Outflows
-2.25 - 19.6 - 19.6
0.941249999999998 196.1 196.1 0.0
1.5 230.4 227.0 3.4
5.25 460.8 434.4 26.5

80.00

70.00

lver in Data tab 60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

-
0 60 100 200

Total cost Revenue

Taxes
Total cost Profit after tax
-2.25 2.25 - 2.25
0 22.50 -
1.5 36.00 1.50
5.25 69.75 5.25
 Tax rate 50%
Discount rate 10%
Assumptions NPV (JPY Billion
Variable Pessmistic Expected Optimistic Pessmistic
1 Market size 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 - 1,174,724,012.2
2 Market share 4% 10% 16% - 10,391,574,670.7
3 Unit price 300,000 375,000 400,000 - 19,608,425,329.3
4 Unit varince cost 350,000 300,000 275,000 - 11,927,716,447.1
5 Fixed cost 5,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 - 2,710,865,788.6

Year 0 1 2 3
Investment - 15,000,000,000
Market size 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
Market share 10% 10% 10%
Unit price 375,000 375,000 375,000
Unit varince cost 300,000 300,000 300,000
Fixed cost 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

CALCULATE PROJECT'S NPV

Investment - 15,000,000,000
Revenue 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000
Variable cost 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000
Fixed cost 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
Tax 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
Net profit 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
OCF 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
NCF - 15,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

NPV 3,433,701,317.1

Pessmistic Expected Optimistic Break-even

1 Market size 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 850,982
3,433,701,317 - 1,174,724,012 3,433,701,317 8,042,126,646 -

2 Market share 4% 10% 16%

3,433,701,317 - 10,391,574,671 3,433,701,317 17,258,977,305

3 Unit price 300,000 375,000 400,000

3,433,701,317 - 19,608,425,329 3,433,701,317 11,114,410,199

4 Unit varince cost 350,000 300,000 275,000 320,000

3,433,701,317 - 11,927,716,447 3,433,701,317 11,114,410,199 - 2,710,865,789
5 Fixed cost 5,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 1,000,000,000
3,433,701,317 - 2,710,865,789 3,433,701,317 9,578,268,423
NPV (JPY Billion)
Expected Optimistic
3,433,701,317.1 8,042,126,646.4
3,433,701,317.1 17,258,977,304.9
3,433,701,317.1 11,114,410,199.2
3,433,701,317.1 11,114,410,199.2
3,433,701,317.1 9,578,268,422.8

4 5 6 7 8

1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000 375,000
300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000

30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

Step 1 Choose table

Step 2 Data Tab -> What-if analysis -> Data table
Step 3 Choose cell of Variance in "Row input cell"
 9 10

1,000,000 1,000,000
10% 10%
375,000 375,000
300,000 300,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000

37,500,000,000 37,500,000,000
30,000,000,000 30,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
1,500,000,000 1,500,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
a+b+e) Break-even point of sales
Year 0 Year 1-10 Break-even
Investment - 30,000,000,000 PVIFA
Unit sales 100,000 CF
Unit price 375,000 Sales at break-even
Revenue 37,500,000,000
Unit Variable cost 260,000 Use Solver in Data tab
Variable costs 26,000,000,000
Fixed costs 3,000,000,000 e)
Depreciation 3,000,000,000 DOL
Pretax profit 5,500,000,000
Tax 2,750,000,000
Net profit 2,750,000,000
OCF 5,750,000,000
NPV 5,331,260,858
Discount rate, r 10%
Tax rate 50%

Inflows Outflows
Unit sales Revenue Investment Variable Costs Fixed costs
Thousands Year 1-10 Year 0 Year 1-10
0 0 15 0 3
100.00 37.5 15 30 3
100 37.5 15 30 3
200 75 15 60 3

d) Break-even point of variable cost

Year 0 Year 1-10 Break-even
Investment - 15,000,000,000 PVIFA
Unit sales 100,000 CF
Unit price 375,000 Sales at break-even
Revenue 37,500,000,000
Unit Variable cost 311,176 Use Solver in Data tab
Variable costs 31,117,638,154
Fixed costs 3,000,000,000
Depreciation 1,500,000,000
Pretax profit 1,882,361,846
Tax 941,180,923
Net profit 941,180,923
OCF 2,441,180,923
NPV -
Discount rate, r 10%
Tax rate 50%
 500.0
6.145
4,882,361,846 450.0
84,911 400.0
350.0
lver in Data tab
300.0
250.0
2.09
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
-
0 100 100 200

Inflows Outflows

Outflows
Taxes PV NPV
ear 1-10 Inflows Outflows
-2.25 - 19.6 - 19.6
1.5 230.4 227.0 3.4
1.5 230.4 227.0 3.4
5.25 460.8 434.4 26.5

6.145
2,441,180,923
311,176

lver in Data tab

 New equipment 9,000,000
Tax rate 0%
Discount rate 12%
Assumptions
Variable Pessmistic Expected Optimistic
1 Sales 400,000 500,000 700,000
2 Manufacturing cost with new 6 4 3
3 Economics life of new machin 7 10 13

EAA new machine 1,592,857

Cost reduction 2,000,000

EAC savings 407,142.5 (EAC: Economics Annual Cost ~ EAA)

Pessmistic Expected Optimistic

1 Sales 400,000 500,000 700,000
407,143 7,143 407,143 1,207,143

2 Manufacturing cost with new 6 4 3

407,143 - 592,857 407,143 907,143

3 Economics life of new machin 7 10 13

407,143 27,940 407,143 598,905
 NPV (JPY Billion)
Pessmistic Expected Optimistic
7,142.5 407,142.5 1,207,142.5
- 592,857.5 407,142.5 907,142.5
27,940.4 407,142.5 598,905.2

Cost ~ EAA)