Climate change

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v·d·e

Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns

over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in
the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with
respect to an average, for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate
change may be limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change usually
refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change,
more generally known as global warming or anthropogenic global warming (AGW).

Contents
[hide]

• 1 Terminology
• 2 Causes
o 2.1 Human influences
o 2.2 Plate tectonics
o 2.3 Solar output
o 2.4 Orbital variations
o 2.5 Volcanism
o 2.6 Ocean variability
• 3 Physical evidence for climatic change
o 3.1 Historical and archaeological evidence
o 3.2 Glaciers
o 3.3 Vegetation
o 3.4 Ice cores
o 3.5 Dendroclimatology
o 3.6 Pollen analysis
o 3.7 Insects
o 3.8 Sea level change
• 4 See also
• 5 References
• 6 Further reading

• 7 External links

Terminology
The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of
the climate system when considered over periods of decades or longer, regardless of
cause.[1][2] Accordingly, fluctuations on periods shorter than a few decades, such as El
Niño, do not represent climate change.

The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human
activity; for example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
defines climate change as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods."[3] In the
latter sense climate change is synonymous with global warming.

Causes
Factors that can shape climate are climate forcings. These include such processes as
variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and
continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of
climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some
parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction to
climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system can take
centuries or longer to fully respond to new external forcings.

Human influences

Main article: Global warming

Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Levels

In the context of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are human activities which
affect the climate. The scientific consensus on climate change is, "that climate is
changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities." [4]

“Science has made enormous inroads in understanding climate change and its causes, and
is beginning to help develop a strong understanding of current and potential impacts that
will affect people today and in coming decades. This understanding is crucial because it
allows decision makers to place climate change in the context of other large challenges
facing the nation and the world. There are still some uncertainties, and there always will
be in understanding a complex system like Earth’s climate. Nevertheless, there is a
strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that
climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities.
While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and
hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious
scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.”

— United States National Research Council , Advancing the Science of Climate Change
Consequently, the debate is shifting onto ways to reduce further human impact and to
find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred[5] and is anticipated to occur in the
future.[6]

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to
emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the
atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone depletion,
animal agriculture[7] and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they play - both
separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and
measures of climate variables.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global
land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local
patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[8]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore
influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in
controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in
determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is
the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct
mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean
dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice
cover.[9][10] During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360 million years ago, plate
tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation.[11]
Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of the
supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the
supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.[12]

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans on
temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than they
are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate is
strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.

Solar output

Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of
sunspots and beryllium isotopes.

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-
term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does today.
If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should not have
existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the early Earth,
in the Hadean[13][14] and Archean[15][13] eons, leading to what is known as the faint young
sun paradox.[16] Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly different
atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently exist[17]
Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of the sun increased
and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation of the atmosphere around
2.4 billion years ago being the most notable alteration. These changes in luminosity, and
the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a white dwarf, will have large
effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle[18] and
longer-term modulations.[19] Solar intensity variations are considered to have been
influential in triggering the Little Ice Age,[20] and some of the warming observed from
1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood; it
differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and evolves.
While most research indicates solar variability has induced a small cooling effect from
1750 to the present, a few studies point toward solar radiation increases from cyclical
sunspot activity affecting global warming.[21] [22]

Interestingly, a 2010 study[23] suggests, “that the effects of solar variability on

temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.”

Orbital variations

Main article: Milankovitch cycles

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight
reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little
change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes
in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are
variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and
precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which
have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and
interglacial periods,[24] their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara,[24] and
for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[25]

Volcanism
Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its
surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes
which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and
cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's
surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second
largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century[26] (after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta[27])
affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about 0.5 °C (0.9
°F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a Summer.[28]
Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few times every
hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.[29]

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time
periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the
uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the
US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate 100-300
times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[30]

Ocean variability

Main article: Thermohaline circulation

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to a
few decades) such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation,
the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability
rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as
thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow
and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the
world's oceans.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to
reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are
available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods, most of the
evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators
that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores,[31] dendrochronology, sea level change,
and glacial geology.

Historical and archaeological evidence

Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in

settlement and agricultural patterns.[32] Archaeological evidence, oral history and
historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change
effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations.[32]

Glaciers

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000
years

Decline in thickness of glaciers worldwide

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change.[33] Their
size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As
temperatures warm, glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for
the additional melt; the converse is also true.

Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. Variability
in temperature, precipitation, and englacial and subglacial hydrology can strongly
determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular season. Therefore, one must average
over a decadal or longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to smooth out
the local short-term variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to climate.

A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on
aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks
more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2, and
preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2. The
World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier
mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking
significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions
during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[34]

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3
million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial period
(the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.[35] Shaped by orbital variations, responses
such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped
create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events, Dansgaard–Oeschger events
and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial variations may also influence
climate without the orbital forcing.

Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material—including organic

matter, quartz, and potassium that may be dated—recording the periods in which a
glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of
glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose
date of deposit may also be ascertained.

Vegetation

This video summarizes how climate change, associated with increased carbon dioxide
levels, has affected plant growth.

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change
in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may
result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the
subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2. Larger, faster or more radical changes,
however, may result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain
circumstances.[36]
Ice cores

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be
used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped
in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the distant
past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores has been
a significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and continues to
provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and modern
atmospheric conditions.

Dendroclimatology

Dendroclimatology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine past climate
variations. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst
thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal growing
conditions.

Pollen analysis

Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen.

Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary
under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with distinctive
shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very
resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in different
layers of sediment in lakes, bogs, or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities.
These changes are often a sign of a changing climate.[37][38] As an example, palynological
studies have been used to track changing vegetation patterns throughout the Quaternary
glaciations[39] and especially since the last glacial maximum.[40]

Insects

Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of
beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage
of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia,
knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the
sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.[41]

Sea level change

Main articles: Sea level and Current sea level rise

Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using
tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average.
More recently, altimeter measurements — in combination with accurately determined
satellite orbits — have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.[42]
To measure sea levels prior to instrumental measurements, scientists have dated coral
reefs that grow near the surface of the ocean, coastal sediments, marine terraces, ooids in
limestones, and nearshore archaeological remains. The predominant dating methods used
are uranium series and radiocarbon, with cosmogenic radionuclides being sometimes
used to date terraces that have experienced relative sea level fall.

See also
General Wikinews has news related to:
Climate change
• Attribution of recent climate Wikimedia Commons has media related to:
change Climate change
• Paleoclimatology and links
therein Environment portal
• Abrupt climate change and Energy portal
links therein
• Atmospheric physics
• Climate change in literature Climate of recent glaciations
• Geologic time scale
• Glossary of climate change • Bond event
• List of climate change topics • Dansgaard-Oeschger event
• Temperature record • Younger Dryas

Climate of the deep past Recent climate

• Faint young sun paradox • Anthropocene

• Oxygen catastrophe • Global warming
• Snowball Earth • Hardiness Zone Migration
• Holocene Climatic Optimum
Climate of the last 500 million years • Little Ice Age
• Medieval Warm Period
• Ice ages • Temperature record of the past 1000 years
• Paleocene–Eocene Thermal
Maximum • Year Without a Summer

• Permo–Carboniferous
Glaciation

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Further reading
• D. Qin; Z. Chen, K.B. Averyt, H.L. Miller, Solomon, S., M. Manning, M.
Marquis, M. Tignor (eds.). "IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers". Climate
Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-
spm.pdf.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007-11-12). "Summary for
Policymakers". Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. IPCC’s Fourth
Assessment Report (AR4). Valencia, Spain. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-
report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf.
• Emanuel K (August 2005). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over
the past 30 years" (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–8. doi:10.1038/nature03906.
PMID 16056221.
ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf.
• Edwards, Paul Geoffrey; Miller, Clark A. (2001). Changing the atmosphere:
expert knowledge and environmental governance. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press.
ISBN 0-262-63219-5.
• Ruddiman, W. F. (2003). "The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of
years ago". Climate Change 61 (3): 261–293.
doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004577.17928.fa.
• William F. Ruddiman (2005). Plows, plagues, and petroleum: how humans took
control of climate. Princeton, N.J: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-
13398-0.
• Ruddiman, W. F., Vavrus, S. J. and Kutzbach, J. E. (2005). "A test of the
overdue-glaciation hypothesis". Quaternary Science Review 24 (11).
• Schmidt, G. A., Shindel, D. T. and Harder, S. (2004). "A note of the relationship
between ice core methane concentrations and insolation". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31:
L23206. doi:10.1029/2004GL021083.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2004GL021083.shtml.
External links
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• Climate Change at the Open Directory Project

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• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Climate Change Video Briefs
• United Nations University's 'Our World 2' Indigenous voices on climate change
films
• Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge An online video presentation by Prof.
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland

• Climate Change on In Our Time at the BBC. (listen now)

• Climate Change Performance Index 2010
• List of Climate Change related Organizations

• Climate Library at Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University

[show]v · d · eClimate changes

[show] Temperatures

[show] Causes

Anthropogenic Attribution of recent climate

change · Aviation · Biofuel ·
Carbon dioxide · Earth's
energy budget · Earth's
radiation balance · Fossil
fuel · Global dimming ·
 Global warming potential ·
Greenhouse effect ·
Greenhouse gases · Land use
and forestry · Radiative
forcing · Urban heat island

Albedo · Bond events ·

Cloud forcing · Feedbacks ·
Glaciation · Global cooling ·
Ocean variability (AMO ·
Natural
ENSO · IOD · PDO) ·
Orbital variations · Orbital
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Volcanism

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Decision Support System
is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of
time that range from decades to millions of years. It may be a change in the average
weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an
average, for example, greater or fewer extreme weather events. Climate change may be
limited to a specific region, or may occur across the whole Earth.

In recent usage, especially in the context of environmental policy, climate change

usually refers to changes in modern climate. It may be qualified as anthropogenic
climate change, more generally known as global warming or anthropogenic global
warming (AGW).

Contents
[hide]

• 1 Terminology
• 2 Causes
o 2.1 Human influences
o 2.2 Plate tectonics
o 2.3 Solar output
o 2.4 Orbital variations
o 2.5 Volcanism
o 2.6 Ocean variability
• 3 Physical evidence for climatic change
o 3.1 Historical and archaeological evidence
o 3.2 Glaciers
o 3.3 Vegetation
o 3.4 Ice cores
o 3.5 Dendroclimatology
o 3.6 Pollen analysis
o 3.7 Insects
o 3.8 Sea level change
• 4 See also
• 5 References
• 6 Further reading

• 7 External links
Terminology
The most general definition of climate change is a change in the statistical properties of
the climate system when considered over periods of decades or longer, regardless of
cause.[1][2] Accordingly, fluctuations on periods shorter than a few decades, such as El
Niño, do not represent climate change.

The term sometimes is used to refer specifically to climate change caused by human
activity; for example, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
defines climate change as "a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly
to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods."[3] In the
latter sense climate change is synonymous with global warming.

Causes
Factors that can shape climate are climate forcings. These include such processes as
variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and
continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of
climate change feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some
parts of the climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond slowly in reaction
to climate forcing because of their large mass. Therefore, the climate system can take
centuries or longer to fully respond to new external forcings.

Human influences

Main article: Global warming

Increase in Atmospheric CO2 Levels

In the context of climate variation, anthropogenic factors are human activities which
affect the climate. The scientific consensus on climate change is, "that climate is
changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities." [4]

“Science has made enormous inroads in understanding climate change and its causes,
and is beginning to help develop a strong understanding of current and potential impacts
that will affect people today and in coming decades. This understanding is crucial
because it allows decision makers to place climate change in the context of other large
challenges facing the nation and the world. There are still some uncertainties, and there
always will be in understanding a complex system like Earth’s climate. Nevertheless,
there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research,
documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by
human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific
questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the
face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.”

— United States National Research Council , Advancing the Science of Climate Change

Consequently, the debate is shifting onto ways to reduce further human impact and to
find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred[5] and is anticipated to occur in
the future.[6]

Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to
emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the
atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozone
depletion, animal agriculture[7] and deforestation, are also of concern in the roles they
play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate,
microclimate, and measures of climate variables.

Plate tectonics

Over the course of millions of years, the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global
land and ocean areas and generates topography. This can affect both global and local
patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.[8]

The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore
influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in
controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in
determining global climate. A recent example of tectonic control on ocean circulation is
the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, which shut off direct
mixing between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. This strongly affected the ocean
dynamics of what is now the Gulf Stream and may have led to Northern Hemisphere ice
cover.[9][10] During the Carboniferous period, about 300 to 360 million years ago, plate
tectonics may have triggered large-scale storage of carbon and increased glaciation.[11]
Geologic evidence points to a "megamonsoonal" circulation pattern during the time of
the supercontinent Pangaea, and climate modeling suggests that the existence of the
supercontinent was conducive to the establishment of monsoons.[12]

The size of continents is also important. Because of the stabilizing effect of the oceans
on temperature, yearly temperature variations are generally lower in coastal areas than
they are inland. A larger supercontinent will therefore have more area in which climate
is strongly seasonal than will several smaller continents or islands.

Solar output

Main article: Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of
sunspots and beryllium isotopes.

The sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. Both long- and short-
term variations in solar intensity are known to affect global climate.

Three to four billion years ago the sun emitted only 70% as much power as it does
today. If the atmospheric composition had been the same as today, liquid water should
not have existed on Earth. However, there is evidence for the presence of water on the
early Earth, in the Hadean[13][14] and Archean[15][13] eons, leading to what is known as the
faint young sun paradox.[16] Hypothesized solutions to this paradox include a vastly
different atmosphere, with much higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than
currently exist[17] Over the following approximately 4 billion years, the energy output of
the sun increased and atmospheric composition changed, with the oxygenation of the
atmosphere around 2.4 billion years ago being the most notable alteration. These
changes in luminosity, and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red giant and then a
white dwarf, will have large effects on climate, with the red giant phase possibly ending
life on Earth.

Solar output also varies on shorter time scales, including the 11-year solar cycle[18] and
longer-term modulations.[19] Solar intensity variations are considered to have been
influential in triggering the Little Ice Age,[20] and some of the warming observed from
1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood;
it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages and
evolves. While most research indicates solar variability has induced a small cooling
effect from 1750 to the present, a few studies point toward solar radiation increases from
cyclical sunspot activity affecting global warming.[21] [22]

Interestingly, a 2010 study[23] suggests, “that the effects of solar variability on

temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.”
Orbital variations

Main article: Milankovitch cycles

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight
reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There is very little
change to the area-averaged annually averaged sunshine; but there can be strong changes
in the geographical and seasonal distribution. The three types of orbital variations are
variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and
precession of Earth's axis. Combined together, these produce Milankovitch cycles which
have a large impact on climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and
interglacial periods,[24] their correlation with the advance and retreat of the Sahara,[24] and
for their appearance in the stratigraphic record.[25]

Volcanism

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to
its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic
processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.

Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century, and
cause cooling (by partially blocking the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's
surface) for a period of a few years. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, the second
largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century[26] (after the 1912 eruption of
Novarupta[27]) affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about
0.5 °C (0.9 °F). The eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused the Year Without a
Summer.[28] Much larger eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only a few
times every hundred million years, but may cause global warming and mass extinctions.
[29]

Volcanoes are also part of the extended carbon cycle. Over very long (geological) time
periods, they release carbon dioxide from the Earth's crust and mantle, counteracting the
uptake by sedimentary rocks and other geological carbon dioxide sinks. According to the
US Geological Survey, however, estimates are that human activities generate 100-300
times the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by volcanoes.[30]

Ocean variability

Main article: Thermohaline circulation

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

The ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. Short-term fluctuations (years to
a few decades) such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation,
the North Atlantic oscillation, and the Arctic oscillation, represent climate variability
rather than climate change. On longer time scales, alterations to ocean processes such as
thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very
slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in
the world's oceans.

Physical evidence for climatic change

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to
reconstruct past climates. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are
available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods, most of the
evidence is indirect—climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators
that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores,[31] dendrochronology, sea level change,
and glacial geology.

Historical and archaeological evidence

Main article: Historical impacts of climate change

Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in

settlement and agricultural patterns.[32] Archaeological evidence, oral history and
historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. Climate change
effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations.[32]

Glaciers
Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450,000
years

Decline in thickness of glaciers worldwide

Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change.[33] Their
size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. As
temperatures warm, glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for
the additional melt; the converse is also true.

Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings.
Variability in temperature, precipitation, and englacial and subglacial hydrology can
strongly determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular season. Therefore, one must
average over a decadal or longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to
smooth out the local short-term variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to
climate.

A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s, initially based mainly on
aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. This compilation tracks
more than 100,000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240,000 km2, and
preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445,000 km2. The
World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier
mass balance From this data, glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking
significantly, with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s, stable or growing conditions
during the 1920s and 1970s, and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present.[34]

The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately
3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. The present interglacial
period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11,700 years.[35] Shaped by orbital variations,
responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level
changes helped create the climate. Other changes, including Heinrich events,
Dansgaard–Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas, however, illustrate how glacial
variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing.

Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material—including organic

matter, quartz, and potassium that may be dated—recording the periods in which a
glacier advanced and retreated. Similarly, by tephrochronological techniques, the lack of
glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose
date of deposit may also be ascertained.

Vegetation

This video summarizes how climate change, associated with increased carbon dioxide
levels, has affected plant growth.

A change in the type, distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change
in the climate; this much is obvious. In any given scenario, a mild change in climate may
result in increased precipitation and warmth, resulting in improved plant growth and the
subsequent sequestration of airborne CO2. Larger, faster or more radical changes,
however, may result in vegetation stress, rapid plant loss and desertification in certain
circumstances.[36]

Ice cores

Analysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the Antarctic ice sheet, can be
used to show a link between temperature and global sea level variations. The air trapped
in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the CO2 variations of the atmosphere from the
distant past, well before modern environmental influences. The study of these ice cores
has been a significant indicator of the changes in CO2 over many millennia, and
continues to provide valuable information about the differences between ancient and
modern atmospheric conditions.

Dendroclimatology
Dendroclimatology is the analysis of tree ring growth patterns to determine past climate
variations. Wide and thick rings indicate a fertile, well-watered growing period, whilst
thin, narrow rings indicate a time of lower rainfall and less-than-ideal growing
conditions.

Pollen analysis

Palynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs, including pollen.

Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which vary
under different climate conditions. Different groups of plants have pollen with
distinctive shapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed
of a very resilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in
different layers of sediment in lakes, bogs, or river deltas indicate changes in plant
communities. These changes are often a sign of a changing climate.[37][38] As an example,
palynological studies have been used to track changing vegetation patterns throughout
the Quaternary glaciations[39] and especially since the last glacial maximum.[40]

Insects

Remains of beetles are common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of
beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the extensive lineage
of beetles whose genetic makeup has not altered significantly over the millennia,
knowledge of the present climatic range of the different species, and the age of the
sediments in which remains are found, past climatic conditions may be inferred.[41]

Sea level change

Main articles: Sea level and Current sea level rise

Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using
tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average.
More recently, altimeter measurements — in combination with accurately determined
satellite orbits — have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.[42]
To measure sea levels prior to instrumental measurements, scientists have dated coral
reefs that grow near the surface of the ocean, coastal sediments, marine terraces, ooids in
limestones, and nearshore archaeological remains. The predominant dating methods
used are uranium series and radiocarbon, with cosmogenic radionuclides being
sometimes used to date terraces that have experienced relative sea level fall.

See also
General Wikinews has news related to:
Climate change
• Attribution of recent climate
 Wikimedia Commons has media related to:
change Climate change
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therein
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• Glossary of climate change • Bond event
• List of climate change topics • Dansgaard-Oeschger event
• Temperature record • Younger Dryas

Climate of the deep past Recent climate

• Faint young sun paradox • Anthropocene

• Oxygen catastrophe
• Snowball Earth
Climate of the last 500 million years
• Ice ages
• Paleocene–Eocene Thermal
Maximum
• Global warming
• Hardiness Zone Migration
• Holocene Climatic Optimum
• Little Ice Age
• Medieval Warm Period
• Temperature record of the past 1000 years
• Year Wit

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Glaciation
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