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7 September 2010
Suite 1306
183 Kent Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
Contents
Contents .............................................................................................................................. 2
Overview and Investment Comment ........................................................................................ 3
RCR September Quarter 2010 Featured Company Summary ....................................................... 4
[Explorers‟ Development Cycle Chart ........................................................................................ ]
[Comparative Charts ............................................................................................................... ]
Financial Data ....................................................................................................................... 5
Company Statistics ................................................................................................................ 5
Reserves, Resources and Historic Mineralisation ........................................................................ 6
Valuation and Performance Data ............................................................................................. 6
[Selected rare and minor metal price data and production statistics .............................................. ]
[Exchange rates of some rare and minor metals, producers and consumers. .................................. ]
[Rare and Minor Metal Company Share Performance Tables ......................................................... ]
[This is the Abridged Report version of the September Quarter RCR Rare and Minor Metals Company Review.
The purchase price of RCR‟s September quarter Subscriber Reports (uranium, gold, rare and minor metals, and
iron ore; copper (out soon)) is A$110. The annual rate for RCR reports – commodities covered may vary from
quarter to quarter – is A$440. Purchase details and research services for institutional investors can be found at
www.rcresearch.com.au]
Rare and Minor Metals Company Review, September 2010. Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright© 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 2
Resource Capital Research
Demand for the rare Rising rare and minor metal (RMM) demand and prices over the coming 4-5
and minor metals years should be met with increased supply from new and existing mineral
should increase in projects. RMM deposits can take 5+ years to develop as mines, sometimes
the next 4-5 years … due to their geochemical complexity, and the challenge of financing
projects that are considered to be outside the resources mainstream.
… which could This provides an opportunity for companies with relatively low-risk
benefit current and projects, and which are advanced or can be fast-tracked, to gain RMM
near-term producers. market share and potentially substantial returns on investment.
Some examples of commodities with a stable to strong outlook for the next
several years:
Equity performances
Rare and Minor Metals Company Review, September 2010. Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright © 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 3
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Globe Metals & Mining Limited GBE Niobium, Tantalum, Bankable Feasibility Study
Rare Earths, The 60Mt Kanyika Niobium Project (Malawi) had a recent 77% increase in Measured and Indicated
Uranium, Fluorine resources. A mine plan is expected 3Q10, a Bankable Feasibility Study in 2011. Share price has
jumped 80% in 3 months due to strong rare metals market.
Greenland Minerals & Energy Limited GGG Rare Earths, Pre-Feasibility Study
Uranium, Zinc, Trading in GGG has resumed after a long suspension: news is, the Greenland Government
Sodium Fluoride maintains its zero uranium tolerance, for now. The feasibility stage Kvanefjeld Project is forecast to
be a major provider of REE (43.7kt/yr) and uranium (3.9kt/yr U3O8).
King Island Scheelite Limited KIS Tungsten, Copper, Definitive Feasibility Study
Gold Having doubled resource and reserve grades in 2Q10 and changed the mine plan from open cut to
underground, KIS could produce +3kt/yr WO3 from 4Q12 at the King Island tungsten project, with
the backing of Hunan Nonferrous Metals Corp (HNC).
CANADA
Avalon Rare Metals Inc AVL Rare Earths, Pre-Feasibility Study
Niobium, Tantalum, A Pre-Feasibility Study of the Nechalcho REE Project (Canada) has shown its technical and
Zirconium economic viability. The project, which has the second largest REE and third largest Nb resources in
the world, has a Bankable Feasibility Study expected in 2Q12 and could be in production in 2015.
Rare and Minor Metals Company Review, September 2010. Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright © 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 4
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Financial Data
2
Listed Fully M arket Enterprise
C OM P A N Y Aust Canada USA Europe other options Share Price (LC$/share) 3 Diluted Cap Book Value
1 2 2
Code Status Yr End Exchanges 52 week Current Shares Opt+W C. Notes Shares (undiluted) Cash Debt Value (Undiluted)
7 Sept ember 2010 Hi Low (m) (m) (m) (m) (LC$m) 3 (LC$m) 3 (LC$m) 3 (LC$m) 3 (LC$m) 3
AUSTRALIA (A$)
CANADA (C$)
Avalon Rare M etals Inc AVL E Aug TSX OTCQX 4.24 1.89 3.30 79 10 0 89 261 4.4 0.0 39 261
Rodinia Lithium Inc RM E Dec TSX.V OTCQX 0.70 0.26 0.29 66 25 0 91 19 4.9 0.0 15 19
TNR Gold Corp TNR E Dec TSX.V 0.38 0.18 0.22 123 35 0 158 26 4.7 0.0 20 26
(1) P: Producer; E: Explorer; I: Imminent - includes companies with bankable feasibility studies and likely to be in production within 3 years (2) Fully Diluted (shares, options + warrants (opt. + w), convertible notes (Conv. N), other obligations)
(3) L.C. - Local Currency unit; Sep '10F (4) AUD/USD: 0.89; CAN/USD: 0.94
Company Statistics
C OM P A N Y
Code Land Drilling ('000 m) (A) Exploration (L.C.$m) (B) Corporate (L.C.$m) (A)/(A+B) %
7 S e pt e m be r 2 0 10 ('000 ha) Jun-10 Sep-10 2009 2010 Jun-10 Sep-10 2009 2010 Jun-10 Sep-10 2009 2010 Sep-10 2009 2010
AUSTRALIA (A$)
Alkane Exploration Limited ALK 181 2.1 3.8 25.0 21.2 2.3 2.0 8.1 7.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 89 89 86
Arafura Resources Limited ARU na 15.0 6.3 0.0 15.0 2.8 3.8 10.9 13.2 0.7 1.8 5.1 6.0 68 68 69
Globe M etals & M ining Limited GBE 279 5.0 5.0 12.0 20.0 2.4 0.3 3.6 5.4 0.2 0.4 1.7 1.0 46 67 84
Greenland M inerals & Energy Limited GGG 211 1.0 1.0 10.0 8.0 2.9 2.5 11.0 9.1 1.2 1.4 4.0 6.0 65 73 60
Gippsland Limited GIP 1,330 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 2.4 2.4 16 32 10
Gunson Resources Limited GUN 273 0.6 0.5 0.6 4.9 0.7 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 71 75 79
Galaxy Resources Limited GXY 145 5.0 5.0 15.0 21.8 0.9 1.0 4.8 7.1 3.1 2.0 1.8 8.9 33 73 44
Icon Resources Limited III 441 2.0 1.0 0.0 8.0 0.9 0.3 1.3 2.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 80 80 88
King Island Scheelite Limited KIS na 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.1 53 41 38
2,859 30.7 22.5 64.6 100.8 13.0 10.6 43.5 47.4 6.5 6.7 18.5 27.4 58 66 62
CANADA (C$)
Avalon Rare M etals Inc AVL 4 5.0 5.0 10.3 22.2 3.0 3.0 6.8 11.9 0.5 0.5 3.2 2.1 86 68 85
Rodinia Lithium Inc RM 31 0.6 0.6 0.2 2.3 0.8 0.8 1.4 3.1 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.6 67 53 65
TNR Gold Corp TNR 34 0.3 1.0 0.0 2.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 2.6 73 53 46
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AUSTRALIA
Alkane Exploration Limited ALK E REE 0.0 REE 73 0.75 549.0 2.8moz Au 0.0
Arafura Resources Limited ARU E REE 0.0 REE 30 2.80 848.0 3.9mt P2O5 0.0
Globe M etals & M ining Limited GBE E Nb 0.0 Nb 60 0.29 174.0 8.4kt Ta2O5 0.0
Greenland M inerals & Energy Limited GGG E REE 0.0 REE 279 1.07 2982.8 177mlb U3O8 0.0
Gippsland Limited GIP E Ta 15 0.026 3.9 16.5kt Sn Ta 72 0.018 12.5 20.4kt Sn 0.0 20.2kt Sn
Gunson Resources Limited GUN E Heavy mins 308 1.20 3700 [see note 3] Heavy M ins 979 1.26 12300 366kt Cu 0.0
Galaxy Resources Limited GXY P Li 11 1.05 119.4 1.7kt Ta2O5 Li 16 1.08 171.5 2.5kt Ta2O5 0.0
Icon Resources Limited III I W 0.0 W 12 0.20 25.0 29.8kt Cu 0.0
King Island Scheelite Limited KIS I W 1.1 1.17 12.9 W 6 0.89 50.7 0.0
CANADA (C$)
Avalon Rare M etals Inc AVL E REO 12 1.7 204.2 REE 176 0.43 1958.0 0.0
Rodinia Lithium Inc RM E 0.0 Li 0.0 0.0
TNR Gold Corp TNR E 0.0 Li 0.0 0.0 490koz Au
(1) P: Producer; E: Explorer; I: Imminent - includes companies with bankable feasibility studies and likely to be in production within 3 years; IHC: Investment Holding Company
(2) Reserves, resources and mineralised material published by the relevant company.
The applicable mineral resource codes are by country: Australian: JORC, Canadian: NI 43-101.
(3) The Coburn Zircon Project reserve, contained heavy mineral tonnage, includes 23%zircon and 48%ilmenite
AUSTRALIA
Total/Total Average 14 41 11 -4 39 63
CANADA
Avalon Rare M etals Inc AVL 6.7 59.6 1.18 0.12 na 27 67 28 -5 22 75
Rodinia Lithium Inc RM 1.3 3.8 na na na -10 -20 -51 -49 59 10
TNR Gold Corp TNR 1.3 5.6 na na na -7 -7 -10 -19 43 19
Rare and Minor Metals Company Review, September 2010. Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright © 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 6
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ARU.AU
Arafura Resources Limited
A$ 0.85
Arafura Resources Limited
7 September 2010 ARU's share price has jumped 110% in the past 3 months due to surging
Rare Earth Elements, Phosphorus, Uranium, Gold REE prices (up +255% since 4Q09). A Bankable Feasibility Study of the
Australia
Bankable Feasibility Study globally significant Nolans Rare Earths-Phosphate-Uranium Project (NT)
Exchanges: ASX:ARU is ongoing, and the project is on track for first production in 2013.
1
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
0.8 Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian: (JORC)
Rare Earth Elements Classification Project Ore REO c/off REO U P2O5
0.6 Equity Mt % REE % kt mlb mt
Jun-10
May-10
Mar-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Sep-09
Mt Porter Indicated, inferred 100% (Au) 0.355 3 g/t Au 1.7 g/t Au 34.2koz Au
Source: Bloomberg
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Nolans Project valuation: economics are sensitive to the REO price, with US$20/kg
shown in blue. The NAV at this value is A$3.10/share, or A$1.88/share with dilution to
raise 50% of capital costs (US$420m). Current REO blend value is +US$40/kg.
Capital Structure
Shares 290.6 290.6 290.6
Fully Diluted Shares 307.6 307.6 307.6
ARU NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 3.28 0.13 4.58
ARU NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 3.10 0.13 4.33
NOLANS PROJECT (NPV based on current resource, October 2007 PFS and August 2009 BFS update)
Equity Sensitivity
LONG TERM PRICE FOR NOLANS' REO BLEND :US$/kg 10 20 30 40 50
EXCHANGE RATE :AUUS 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
NOLANS NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :A$m 100% 25 929 1628 2327 3025
NOLANS NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :US$m 100% 270 743 1302 1861 2420
NPV/SHARE (fully diluted) :A$/share 0.08 3.02 5.29 7.56 9.83
RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Current JORC Measured, Indicated and Inferred resource (1% REE cut-of f ) Ore REO P2O5 U3O8
Mt % % lb/t
30.3 2.80 12.900 0.44
Contained metal, kt 848 3900 5.9 (=13.3mlbs U3O8)
Year 1 Year 20
PRODUCTION RATE :mtpa 0.5 1.0 Production ramp up: 25-75% yr1, 75% yr 2; 100% yr3
:ktpa REO 10 20 Head grade and blend are same as resource grade
:tpa P 2O5 50 80
:mlbspa U308 0.17 0.33
:strip ratio 1.0 1.0
CAPITAL COSTS :US$ 420m Sustaining capex 4%pa
RECOVERIES TO CONCENTRATE :% 90 Heavy media recovers 90% of apatite and REE minerals
DOWNSTREAM RECOVERY :% 86 For REO; 85% phosphoric acid; 80% U3O8
OPERATING COSTS :$USm/yr 150
TAX :% 30
ROYALTY :% 3
MINE LIFE :Years 20+
COMMISSION DATE : 1Q13
* These figures are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide only a general indication of project potential scale and economic robustness.
Considerable refinement may result from Bankable Feasibility study, expected in 4Q10.
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GBE.AU
Globe Metals & Mining Limited
Globe Metals & Mining Limited A$ 0.27
7 September 2010 The 60Mt Kanyika Niobium Project (Malawi) had a recent 77%
Rare Metals, Uranium, Fluorine increase in Measured and Indicated resources. A mine plan is
Malawi, Mozambique
Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) expected 3Q10, a Bankable Feasibility Study in 2011. Share price
Exchanges: ASX:GBE has jumped 80% in 3 months due to strong rare metals market.
0.3
Kanyika and it could move forward without a partner until project financing is required. Increasing investor
0.25 confidence and the strong rare metals market has seen an 80% share price rise in 3 months.
Jun-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
Sep-09
Resources
Kanyika Meas, Ind, Inf* 100% 60.0 0.29 0.15 0.014 0.009 174.0
Source: Bloomberg
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant with JORC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.0
*5Mt measured, 18Mt Indicated, 37Mt Inferred
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Kanyika Project Valuation: economics are sensitive to the niobium price, with target set at
US$39/kg Nb in ferroniobium (current is ~US$40/kg). The fully diluted share price target
is A$0.63/share allowing for dilution at A$0.25/share.
Capital Structure
Shares 94 94 94
Fully Diluted Shares 102 102 102
GBE NET ASSET VALUE PER SHARE :A$/share 3.18 0.31 8.48
GBE NET ASSET VALUE DILUTED :A$/share fully diluted 2.93 0.29 7.82
With dilution at A$0.50/share to raise 50% of US$150m :A$/share fully diluted 1.03
With dilution at A$0.25/share to raise 50% of US$150m :A$/share fully diluted 0.63
KANYIKA SPECIALTY METALS PROJECT (NPV based on June 2010 resource, June 2008 Scoping Study and May 2009 update)
Equity Sensitivity
LONG TERM NIOBIUM PRICE (per kg in FeNb alloy)^ :US$/kg 25 35 45 55 65
EXCHANGE RATE :AUUS 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
KANYIKA NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :A$m 100% 26 204 381 559 736
KANYIKA NPV @ 10% NOMINAL* :US$m 100% 21 163 305 447 589
NPV/SHARE :A$/share 0.28 2.17 4.06 5.94 7.83
RESOURCE ESTIMATES
Current JORC Indicated and Inferred resource (1,500ppm Nb2O5 cut-of f ) Ore Nb2O5 Ta 2O5 ZrSiO4 U3O8
Mt % % % %
Model does not include zircon production 60 0.29 0.014 0.50 0.009
Year 1 Year 10
PRODUCTION RATE :mtpa 1.72 2.3 Head grade falls from 0.38% Nb2O5 to 0.29% Nb2O5
:tpa Nb 3,000 3,000
:strip ratio 0.6 1.9
CAPITAL COSTS :US$ 155m Excludes working capital; sustaining capex $4mpa.
RECOVERIES TO CONCENTRATE :% 65 All products (Nb, Ta, U)
DOWNSTREAM RECOVERY :% 69
OPERATING COSTS :US$/t 40 to 43 (Includes US$2.80/t mined, US$26 to 34/t milled)
TAX :% 30 Company tax in Malawi
ROYALTY :% 3 ASX:PDN at Kayelekera pays 1.5% for first 3 yrs, then 3%
MINE LIFE :Years 10+
COMMISSION DATE : June 2012
* These figures are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide only a general indication of project potential scale and economic robustness.
Considerable refinement may result from bankable feasibility study, expected in 2011.
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GUN.AU
Gunson Resources Limited
A$ 0.089
Gunson Resources Limited
7 September 2010 GUN's 100% owned ~A$170m Coburn Zircon Project in WA is now
Zircon, Titanium, Copper,Gold,Nickel looking strategically attractive (DFS completed) with a zircon
Australia
DFS, Advanced Exploration supply deficit looming. This will boost GUN's plans to bring in a big
Exchanges: ASX:GUN brother, which if succesful could lift the share price.
0.14
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian: (JORC)
0.12
Share Price ($/Share)
0.06 Resources
Mount Gunson - MG14 Indicated 100% 1.1 1.70 1.0 19 8 19
0.04 Mount Gunson - Windabout Indicated 100% 18.7 1.00 0.5 187 85 187
0.02 Mount Gunson JV Inferred 49% 25.1 1.31 0.5 328 149 161
Total Resources 44.9 1.19 534 242 366
0 Note: MG14 & Windabout contain 0.04% and 0.05% Cobalt respectively
May-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Nov-09
Dec-09
Sep-09
Aug-10
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GUN’s project portfolio is headlined by the advanced Coburn mineral sands project in WA (zircon is the
key mineral) and the Mount Gunson copper exploration project in SA’s Olympic Dam territory, where GUN
has a small scale production project BFS underway. Fowler’s Bay is early stage nickel exploration, and
Tennant Creek early stage copper gold exploration.
The Mount Gunson Copper project (49% GUN) is situated in the 500km long Olympic Copper Gold Province
in South Australia which contains ~75% of the known copper resources in Australia – including the
Olympic Dam, Prominent Hill and Carrapeteena deposits. The latter, potentially containing >4mt Cu (drilled
by Teck Cominco), is only 20km east of GUN’s tenements.
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GXY.AU
Galaxy Resources Limited
Galaxy Resources Limited A$ 1.16
7 September 2010 With the Mt Cattlin Spodumene Mine expected to start production in
Lithium, Tantalum, Manganese, Iron 4Q10, and the A$55m Jiangsu Lithium Carbonate Plant under
Australia (WA), China (Shanghai), Mongolia
Comissioning construction near Shanghai, Galaxy could soon be one of the world's
Exchanges: ASX:GXY major producers of battery grade lithium chemicals.
from 2007 to 2008. World Li Carb demand is ~100ktpa, with 20-25ktpa in China; price is US$5,500-$6,000/t,
or higher for better grades (added US$3k/t for 99.9% pure). GXY estimates revenue from the Cattlin-Jiansu
1.50
operations will be A$143mpa for 16 years, with pre-tax net of A$69mpa. At capex A$145m, GXY est NPV
(@8% real, exchange 0.9) is A$425m with IRR 36%. Fully diluted market cap is A$248m. Further progress at
1.00
Jiangsu, shipments from Mt Cattlin and an increase in Li prices could see the stock approach A$1.50.
Jun-10
Mar-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Sep-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
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Plan of Mt Cattlin Spodumene Mine: this diagram shows the proposed pit outline, lithium resource blocks
and recent drill intercepts. Pre-strip has commenced, plant construction is underway and the mine is
expected to be producing spodumene mineral concentrate grading 6% Li 2O from 4Q10.
Plant construction at Mt Cattlin: lithium concentrate will be shipped from the mine and converted to 17ktpa
battery grade lithium carbonate at the Jiangsu Lithium Plant in China. Offtake agreements are in place for
100% of the Mt Cattlin/Jiangsu output.
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III.AU
Icon Resources Limited
Icon Resources Limited
A$ 0.07
surrounding the ML were acquired. These have historic W-Sn workings (e.g at Mt Holmes, 10km SE of
Early cash flow targeted from processing of tailings and Carbine) and are prospective for Carbine-style sheeted vein mineralisation, as well as alluvial tin and
tungsten deposits. Metallurgy: The historic mine used visual ore sorting technology, which has improved
stockpiles - concentrate production from Dec '10.
since that time, as have downstream metallurgical recoveries. An XRF sorter will be tested in 3Q10. This
beneficiation could reduce the concentrator throughput by 80%. Trials of gravity separation of tailings
Scoping Study of 5 year open cut project: pre-tax NPV @ recovered 50-53% to a ~65% WO3 concentrate, and 75% to a ~45% WO3 concentrate (centrifuge,
8% real of A$59m with potential for A$200m with grade flotation). Scoping Study: October 2009 (Mining One P/L); the study contemplates an open cut mine
with a 5 year life, producing 1.5mtpa grading 0.21% WO3 for 2,350t WO3 pa, mill recovery 75% (X-ray
increase, resource expansion; current mkt cap A$8.3m. ore sorters and gravity), capex A$60m, opex A$22.72/t. At A$250/mtu for a 70% WO 3 concentrate, the
study found pre-tax NPV (@8% real) to be A$59m; increasing grade 20% and tonnage 50% boosts NPV
Tungsten conc. price up 22% Y-O-Y, outlook is positive. to A$200m. The latter scenario is reasonable given the exploration potential at Mt Carbine. An update of
the hard rock mining model and project financial forecasts are expected in late 3Q or early 4Q10.
Eastern Australian Exploration (100%): Icon may divest or JV some assets, to focus on Mt Carbine. A
Fitzroy Cu/Zn Project (VHMS) to be subject of IPO in late current focus is on the Peel Fault Project (NSW), where III holds 75km strike over historic hard-rock gold
2010: includes resource of 1.75Mt @ 2.28% CuEq. workings and a chargeability anomaly. Drilling in 1H10 found 14m @ 1g/t Au from 137m. Other projects
include Fitzroy (Central Qld), which has an Indicated JORC resource 1.75Mt @ 1.7% Cu + 2% Zn, and
could be spun out in a separate ASX listing („Fitzroy Resources‟) in late 2010.
Investment Comment: In our previous research note on III, 2Q09, the company was within 6-12 months
III – Icon Resources Limited of being in tungsten production from the Mt Carbine tailings and waste heaps, and potentially ~2-3 years
0.16
from hard rock production. The GFC caused a 1 year delay to the operation but it now seems to be back
on track, with the same schedule. Recent share placements funded A$0.88m exploration in 2Q10 but
0.14 more funding may be needed in 2H10, ahead of possible early cash flow from the tailings operation.
Significant short to mid-term value drivers for III could include the expected resource upgrade (Sep „10),
Share Price ($/Share)
0.12 a successful trial of the XRF ore sorter on ROM and waste dumps (2H10), commencement of the tailings
operation (Dec „10), and a strengthening tungsten market. The planned Fitzroy spin-off could unlock the
0.10 value of this VHMS project for III holders.
0.08
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
0.06 Code for reporting mineral resources - Australian: (JORC)
Tungsten Classification Project Ore WO3 Cut Off WO3 WO3 WO3 Eqty
0.04
Equity Mt % % kt M mtu kt
0.02 Reserves 0.0 0.0 0.0
Resources
0.00
Mt Carbine - tailings Inferred 100% 1.6 0.11 na 1.8 0.2 1.8
May-10
Mar-10
Oct-09
Dec-09
Sep-09
Aug-10
Mt Carbine - open cut Inferred 100% 1.1 0.20 na 2.1 0.2 2.1
Mt Carbine - u/ground Inferred 100% 9.6 0.22 na 21.1 2.1 21.1
Source: Bloomberg 25.0 2.5 25.0
Mineralised Material (est., non compliant w ith JORC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Also Fitzroy (QLD), has total Inferred Resource: 1.75mt @ 1.7% Cu, 2% Zn, 8.5g/t Ag, 0.2g/t Au, cutoff 1% equiv Cu in Nov '07
Rare and Minor Metals Company Review, September 2010. Disclaimer and disclosure attached. Copyright © 2010 by Resource Capital Research Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 15
Resource Capital Research
Mt Carbine Project location map: III is focused on this historic tungsten deposit (QLD), where it plans to
develop a tailings re-processing operation, followed by open-cut and underground mines. The two EPMs
around the Mining Lease are recent acquisitions, and are prospective for Carbine-style mineralisation.
Mt Carbine Project: As well as hard rock resources and mineralised dumps, the area has pre-existing
infrastructure, including a mining lease and 132KV power line. Tailings reprocessing is planned for late
2010 and hard rock mining for 2013. The original operation closed in 1986 due to weak tungsten prices.
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Resource Capital Research
TNR.CN
TNR Gold Corp
C$ 0.22
TNR Gold Corp
7 September 2010 TNR is focused on early stage exploration for gold, and rare and
Gold, Copper, Lithium, Rare Metals minor metals. A TSX spin-out of International Lithium Corp (ILC) in
Argentina, USA, Canada, Ireland
Early to Advanced Exploration 3Q10 should add value to the Li and REE assets: priority Li targets
Exchanges: TSX.V:TNR include Mariana (ARG), where C$1m drilling is planned from 4Q10.
undervalued in comparison to its immediate peers (capitalised at C$15-C$150m). Further value should be
0.30 added to both TNR and ILC by ongoing exploration and resource definition, e.g. at Mariana, which bears early
comparison to the nearby Hombre Muerto (Fenix) mine of FMC, currently providing 14% of global lithium
supply. For TNR, a positive decision over the Loz Azules back-in would be a boost but is not vital – other share
0.25 price catalysts would be exploration success at El Salto and El Tapua.
0.20
Reserves and Resources/Mineralised Material
Code for reporting mineral resources - Canadian: (NI43-101)
Gold Classification Project Ore Au c/off Au Au Eqty
0.15
Equity Mt g/t g/t t koz koz
Jun-10
Mar-10
Oct-09
Apr-10
Jul-10
Sep-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Aug-10
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Resource Capital Research
TNR has 18 active projects worldwide, which can be divided into three broad groups: Argentinian gold-
copper; lithium and rare metals (REM); and Alaskan gold. TNR’s projects are in the exploration phase,
providing an opportunity for investors to benefit as value is added by further development.
The TNR lithium/REM assets could be spun out in 2H10, as International Lithium Corp, ILC:TSX. This chart
shows that ILC, with 60m shares at C$0.25 (mkt cap C$15m) and early stage projects, could be viewed as
good value relative to some comparable, if more advanced, lithium-focused companies.
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Resource Capital Research
Investment Comment
Lithium producers, Increasing intensity of lithium use could require new capacity beyond
current or near-term, 2014. Resources are ample but could be slow to bring online, due to
will be well placed to financial and technical hurdles faced by some projects. Relatively flat
take advantage of price forecasts represent stable revenue in a growing sector. There is an
forecast increases in Li opportunity for developers, with projects that are advanced or can be
price and demand. fast tracked, to gain market share as demand increases.
Pricing
Lithium carbonate is trading in the range US$5,500-US$6,000/t, having
Lithium carbonate is improved from the US$5,300/t average of 2009. The CAGR of Li
selling for ~US$5,500- carbonate 2005-2009 was 6.2%, with 2.0% forecast for 2010-2014
US$6,000/t. (Source: ASX:GXY). By 2015, nominal prices are expected to approach
those seen before the GFC (2007, US$6,731/t; 2015, US$6,757/t).
CAGR of 2% is
forecast for 2010-
2014.
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Resource Capital Research
Li carbonate consumption in 2008 was ~120kt but fell 15% in 2009 due
Consumption of to the GFC. It is expected to recover by +11% to ~113ktpa in 2010 and
~113kt is expected in be ~148kt by 2013 (+31.5% from 2010). [Source: USGS, Roskill]. The
2010, for annual three main uses of lithium by industry sector in 2009 were ceramics and
growth of +11%. glass (31%), batteries (23%) and greases (9%-10%).
Li batteries are gaining favour due to low heavy metal content (e.g. Pb,
Cd, Hg), long life, fast recharge and high power/weight ratios compared
to traditional Pb acid, NiCad and Ni hydride rechargeables.
Source: Roskill
Elemental Facts
Lithium‟s low mass Lithium is the lightest solid element, with atomic number 3. It is highly
and high electro- reactive, with a high electrochemical potential and specific heat
chemical potential capacity. These attributes make it especially useful for making batteries
make it useful for and ceramics/glass. The most commonly traded forms of lithium are
battery manufacture. mineral concentrates and refined lithium carbonate. Lithium is extracted
from pegmatites (igneous), brines (salar lakes) and hectorite clays.
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Resource Capital Research
Investment Comment
Industry forecasts are for ferroniobium (FeNb) consumption growth of
With 15% pa growth ~15% per annum to 2014. New niobium producers have a chance to
forecast, and a steady meet this increase in demand and find secure revenue in the form of
price, the outlook for long-term supply contracts. Prices should remain stable (RCR long term
Nb is strong. US$39/kg in FeNb) so long as CBMM does not feel its dominant market
position to be threatened, which is unlikely, as most advanced Nb
projects are of a much smaller scale than Araxa.
Pricing
All measures show that Nb prices have risen in the past several years,
and were quite resistant to the GFC, likely because Nb is only a small
portion of steel production costs, and the price is set by the main
producer, CBMM.
400,000
Price (RMB/t of 66% FeNb, Brazil to China)
350,000
100,000
50,000
0
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Feb-07
Mar-09
Mar-10
Nov-06
May-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Aug-07
Nov-07
Dec-09
May-10
Aug-10
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Resource Capital Research
Ferroniobium
producer Niobec is
forecasting 15%
compound annual
growth rate (CAGR)
for FeNb consumption
in 2010.
Prior to the GFC, global production of FeNb was ~60kt (contained Nb).
Media reports in 2Q10 from the leading producer, CBMM of Brazil,
China consumes 20% indicate that volumes have recovered to ~80% of these levels and that
of FeNb but is the the market could be fully recovered by early 2011. Brazil is by far the
driving force behind largest producer of Nb, with 93.5% of world production (Source: USGS).
increasing intensity of
usage. China is a major force in consumption of the metal: it currently
represents ~20% of FeNb use and >50% of the growth in this market.
This gap could close over the next 20 years due to modernisation and
increasing sophistication of steel production in China and other
developing markets; over this period, the percentage of steel products
using niobium could increase from 10-12% presently to over 20%
(Sources: GBE and Roskill Information Services; RCR).
Elemental Facts
Niobium is used Approximately 90% of Nb is consumed as FeNb by the steel industry, in
primarily by the steel high-strength low alloy (HSLA) steel products for construction projects,
industry. Prices are oil and gas pipelines and the automobile and shipping industries.
decided by
negotiation of Niobium is not an exchange traded commodity: 95% of FeNb is sold
individual contracts. under individually negotiated contracts based on a benchmark price set
by the main producer, CBMM (Brazil).
Analyst: Dr Trent Allen
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Resource Capital Research
Investment Comment
A tantalum supply shortfall is expected to last until at least 2013. This
The supply deficit in could benefit companies that can provide a long-term supply of ethically
Ta markets could last produced tantalum. RCR‟s long-term price forecast, based on the
beyond 2013. assumptions of Ta industry participants (e.g. ASX:GBE) is US$143/kg
(US$65/lb) Ta2O5.
Pricing
The current price of Ta as tantalite (30% Ta2O5) is US$75-85/lb Ta2O5
Tantalum prices are (Metal Pages). This is (on average) 132% higher than the 2009 low
commonly reported as (August, 2009; US$33.00-36.00/lb Ta2O5), which was the lowest price
lbs of its main ore since March 2007 (US$32.22-34.33/lb Ta2O5).
mineral, tantalite.
The increase is recent and is due largely to anticipation of a supply
shortage as the market is starved of DRC tantalite. This shortage is
anticipated to last until at least 2013 (Source: Gippsland Minerals).
90
80
70
Ta prices have soared
132% in the past 60
Price (US$/lb)
10
0
Feb-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Mar-07
Aug-08
Jan-10
Jun-10
Aug-06
Sep-07
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Resource Capital Research
Elemental Facts
Tantalum is used in Tantalum is used in diverse high technology applications. It is resistant
high-tech applications to corrosion, has a low thermal coefficient of expansion, and a high
such as capacitors dielectric constant, so its main uses are in capacitors (e.g. for consumer
and alloys. electronics), chemical plant and equipment, aviation turbine blades and,
as tantalum carbide, for cutting tools. The majority of the world‟s
tantalum is sold via long-term offtake agreements.
Analyst: Dr Trent Allen
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Resource Capital Research
Investment Comment
Industry participants and commentators are bullish about the medium-
term outlook for tungsten. For example, Icon Resources (III:ASX)
Companies with recently stated: “The market price for [concentrates and APT] has
advanced tungsten improved from mid-2009 returning to pre-GFC levels. Recent market
developments analysis has projected longer-term strength for tungsten, particularly for
could benefit from non-Chinese supply beyond 2012, with supply shortages indicated from
elevated prices, 2013.” Annual Report 2010.
flowing from
Chinese control These forecasts are based partly on concern about security of supply for
(i.e. ~81%) over manufacturers, in view of China‟s policy of mining restrictions and tariffs
the current supply. (e.g. 20% on ferrotungsten), and its intent to boost manufacturing. This
scenario favours existing producers and companies with advanced
tungsten projects that can enter production within 2-3 years.
Pricing
Prices have recovered to pre-GFC levels, during which they had a
relatively soft landing due to simultaneous cuts in demand and
Prices held steady
production. For mine modelling, RCR has used a conservative
during the GFC due
US$150/mtu contained tungsten in 65% concentrate.
to synchronous
falls in supply and
The current price of ferrotungsten in Europe at 75% W is
demand.
US$386.60/mtu (of contained W), APT to China (FOB) is US$242-
Concentrate prices
247/mtu and concentrate in China is at 65% W is US$197/mtu
are up 23% Y-O-Y.
(contained W). These figures are typical of the value-add for increased
tungsten processing. Concentrate prices are up 23% year-on-year,
2009-2010.
The outlook to
2013 is positive,
with further price
increases
predicted by most
commentators.
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Resource Capital Research
Austria Bolivia
Canada Portugal
2% 2%
3% 2%
Russia
4%
Other
6%
Global 2009 mine
production was
~58kt, of which China
accounted for ~81%.
China
81%
Source: USGS.
Elemental Facts
Tungsten is the hardest metal, and has a high density (19.25g/cc;
The main application slightly less than gold, 19.3g/cc), melting point and tensile strength.
for tungsten is in Tungsten is mined from or adjacent to igneous rocks (e.g. in skarns). It
„hardmetal‟, as has two economically important minerals: wolframite ((Fe,Mn)WO4) and
tungsten carbide. In scheelite (CaWO4). The majority of the world‟s 2.8Mt economic reserves
China, steel-making are held by China (with 1.8Mt or 64%. Source :USGS).
accounts for the
highest % use. Tungsten is primarily used in wear-resistant cemented carbides aka
hardmetals (56%) and steel/alloys (20%), as well as in lighting,
heating, and welding applications. Tungsten chemical compounds are
used in catalysts, inorganic pigments, and high-temperature lubricants.
Tungsten is sold in five common forms – APT (ammonium
Ferrotungsten is used paratungstate), ferrotungsten, tungsten concentrate (usually 65%
for steelmaking, while WO3), and tungsten carbide and oxides. Prices are quoted in $US or
APT feeds into the RMB and the main units are mtu (metric tonne units, of 10kg WO 3, ie
cemented carbide and 7.9kg W) and kilograms. It is usually sold on long-term contract.
chemical stream.
Analyst: Dr Trent Allen
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Resource Capital Research
Investment Comment
Industry forecasts are for 20-30% compound annual growth in prices to
2014. Given China‟s almost complete dominance of the REE market,
there is a significant opportunity for new producers to take advantage of
Companies with
booming prices and demand while ensuring security of supply to non-
advanced projects are
Chinese buyers. Rare earth projects, due to their chemical complexity,
well positioned to gain
can take a long time to develop, so only advanced or geochemically
from the rare earths
simple projects will be able to come online in the next 5 years.
boom.
Pricing
Recovery from the GFC, combined with China‟s decision to cut the REO
quota, has driven some prices to 10-year highs. This includes the LREE
which are more common and less valuable the HREE. For example, the
biggest gain has been cerium (Ce) over 12 months, up 860%. These
Some REO prices are
prices will only be sustainable to the extent they are driven by demand,
at 10 year highs.
and could vary according to China‟s export and production policies.
Current
June 7, September 7, 3mth % 12mth %
Rare Earth Oxide price
2010 2009 change change
US$/kg
USD FOB ex-China per kilogram' 99% purity; price are bid-offer mid points.
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Resource Capital Research
Investment Comment
Price increases could
Currently, there are few greenfields zircon projects under development.
benefit near-term
This could create supply tightness in the near to medium term (ie 1-3
producers. A potential
years) and favourable market conditions- ie moderately to strongly
supply crunch would
increasing demand - for existing or near-term zircon suppliers.
provide the chance to
gain Zr market share.
Pricing
According to Iluka, consensus broker zircon price forecasts for 2010 to
2013 average US$861; US$906; US$927 and US$1,016, respectively.
The average broker forecast CAGR in pricing from 2010 to 2013 is 5.7%.
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Resource Capital Research
Zr production from
mineral sands is
buffered by Ti
demand, and there is a
lack of grassroots
projects - so even big
Zr prices might see a
delay in new output.
Source: Iluka
Elemental Facts
Zirconium, as the Zirconium in economic concentrations occurs most commonly in the
mineral zircon, is silicate mineral zircon (ZrSiO4). Due to its hardness, zircon is resistant
primarily extracted to weathering and is often found in heavy mineral sand deposits, along
from heavy mineral with iron-titanium minerals such as rutile and ilmenite. It also occurs in
sands. Zirconium is hard rock rare metal deposits. According to the USGS: “Ceramics,
also found in hard rock foundry applications, opacifiers, and refractories are the leading end
rare metal deposits. uses for zircon. Other end uses … include abrasives, chemicals, metal
alloys, welding rod coatings, and sandblasting.” Metallic zirconium and
zirconia (ZrO2) are used by the nuclear and chemical industries.
Analyst: Dr Trent Allen
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Report Contributors
Trent Allen: Trent has a BSc (Hons) and a PhD from the University of Sydney, specialising in the
petrology, trace-element geochemistry and economic geology of alkaline igneous rocks. His
Australian mining industry experience includes several years with Newcrest‟s Cadia Valley
gold/copper mines, where he was engaged in resource definition and geotechnical engineering.
Trent has also worked as an exploration consultant, university lecturer in geology and civil
engineering, and as a journalist and newspaper editor.
Tony Parry: Tony has extensive experience in metallurgical process development, (working with MIM
Limited for five years) and in mining equity research, equity sales and mining corporate finance
(working in London for five years and subsequently Perth). He was a founding Director and CEO of
an ASX listed exploration company and has been engaged extensively as a strategic planning
consultant to many small-medium enterprises. Tony‟s qualifications include a BSc (Hons) in
Metallurgy and a PhD in Metallurgy from the University of NSW.
John Wilson: John has a background in mining, finance and equity research. He worked on Wall
Street for 6 years and has covered US, Australian and Latin American mining stocks. He has also
worked with BHP in their minerals division. Qualifications include an MBA from the Wharton School
of the University of Pennsylvania and a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Sydney.
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Resource Capital Research Pty Limited (referred to as “we”, “our”, or “RCR” herein) ACN 111 622 489 holds an Australian Financial Services Licence
(AFS Licence number 325340). General advice is provided by RCR‟s Authorised Representatives Dr Tony Parry (Authorised Representative number 328842)
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