Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 13

Semanas Semanas Semanas Per.

T
1 20
2 21
3 22 1 1
4 23 2 2
5 24 3 3
6 25 4 4
7 26 5 5
8 27 6 6
9 28 7 7
10 29 8 8
11 30 9 9
12 31 10 10
13 32 11 11
14 33 12 12
15 34 13 13
16 35 14 14
17 36 15 15
18 37 16 16
19 38 17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
MAD
ECM

desv MAD
DESV ECM
Demanda Pronostico 𝑒_𝑡 ǀ𝑒_𝑡 ǀ 𝑒_𝑡 2 APE APE`
Promedio
So
92 128.945 36.945 36.945 1364.93303 0.40157609 0.29 Alfa
80 124.274691 44.2746913 44.2746913 1960.24829 0.55343364 0.36
105 118.677818 13.6778182 13.6778182 187.082711 0.13026494 0.12
121 116.948771 -4.05122858 4.05122858 16.412453 0.03348123 0.03
99 117.460897 18.4608972 18.4608972 340.804727 0.18647371 0.16
120 115.12721 -4.87279038 4.87279038 23.7440861 0.04060659 0.04
50 115.743191 65.7431911 65.7431911 4322.16717 1.31486382 0.57
190 107.432432 -82.5675681 82.5675681 6817.4033 0.43456615 0.77
117 117.870002 0.87000214 0.87000214 0.75690372 0.00743592 0.01
99 117.760023 18.760023 18.760023 351.938464 0.18949518 0.16
128 115.388522 -12.6114778 12.6114778 159.049373 0.09852717 0.11
119 116.98277 -2.01722977 2.01722977 4.06921593 0.01695151 0.02
113 117.237773 4.23777323 4.23777323 17.958722 0.03750242 0.04
72 116.702066 44.7020659 44.7020659 1998.27469 0.62086203 0.38
85 111.051167 26.0511673 26.0511673 678.663317 0.30648432 0.23
105 107.757975 2.75797489 2.75797489 7.60642547 0.02626643 0.03
109 107.409332 -1.59066753 1.59066753 2.5302232 0.01459328 0.01
96 107.610413 11.6104127 11.6104127 134.801683 0.1209418 0.11
98 106.142712 8.14271174 8.14271174 66.3037544 0.0830889 0.08
109 105.113371 -3.88662857 3.88662857 15.1058816 0.03565714 0.04
85 105.60469 20.6046897 20.6046897 424.55324 0.24240811 0.20
103 103 2.37582E-08 2.37582E-08 5.64453E-16 2.30662E-10 0.00
124 103 -21 21 440.999999 0.16935484 0.20
114 105.654662 -8.34533811 8.34533811 69.6446682 0.07320472 0.08
97 106.709617 9.70961669 9.70961669 94.2766563 0.10009914 0.09
89 105.4822 16.4822001 16.4822001 271.662919 0.18519326 0.16
144 103.398644 -40.6013556 40.6013556 1648.47007 0.28195386 0.39
94 108.531162 14.5311621 14.5311621 211.154672 0.15458683 0.13
105 106.694242 1.69424199 1.69424199 2.87045593 0.01613564 0.02
113 106.480069 -6.51993132 6.51993132 42.5095044 0.05769851 0.06
96 107.304269 11.3042693 11.3042693 127.786504 0.11775281 0.11
125 105.875269 -19.1247313 19.1247313 365.755347 0.15299785 0.18
118 108.292873 -9.70712678 9.70712678 94.2283103 0.08226379 0.09
97 109.519975 12.5199751 12.5199751 156.749776 0.12907191 0.11
135 107.937294 -27.0627059 27.0627059 732.39005 0.20046449 0.25
147 111.358358 -35.6416424 35.6416424 1270.32667 0.24246015 0.32
110 115.863906 5.86390566 5.86390566 34.3853896 0.05330823 0.05
103 115.122635 12.1226349 12.1226349 146.958276 0.11769548 0.11

121.4660 680.666846 24604.5769 7.02972186 6.08


17.9122854
647.488867

22.3903568
25.4458025
128.945
0.12641247

Pronostico SES
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940

Demanda Linear (Demanda )


Pronostico Linear (Pronostico)
Mes Per. T Demanda Pronostico 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡
1 1294
2 1217
3 1187
4 1222
5 0 1270
6 1 1227 1238 -11.0000 11 121
7 2 1220 1237.89 -17.8900 17.89 320.0521
8 3 1154 1237.71 -83.7111 83.7111 7007.5482632
9 4 1113 1236.87 -123.8740 123.873989 15344.765151
10 5 1167 1235.64 -68.6352 68.63524911 4710.7974204
11 6 1218 1235 -16.9489 16.948896619 287.2650966
12 7 1377 1235 142.2206 142.22059235 20226.696888

suma -179.84 464 48018

MAD 66.3256896
ECM 6859.73213

DESV EST 82.907112


82.8234999

L 4
R 8
NS 97.50%
K 1.96 SIMULACIÓN

ISSC 324.66812
ISSP 562.341679
237.673559
APE APE`

alfa 0.01

0.00896496 0.0088853
0.01466393 0.01445201
0.07253995 0.0676338
0.11129738 0.10015086
0.05881341 0.05554653
0.01391535 0.01372437
0.10328293 0.11517895

0.38 0.38

CALI ISSC 132.74 SUMATORIA ISSC 346.08


ISSP 229.91 ISSP 599.42

MEDELLIN ISSC 92.65


ISSP 160.47

BOGOTA ISSC 120.69


ISSP 209.049
Mes Per. T Demanda Pronostico 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡
1 313
2 286
3 261
4 327
5 0 339
6 1 293 305 -12.2000 12.2 148.84
7 2 270 301.54 -31.5400 31.54 994.7716
8 3 265 292.08 -27.0780 27.078 733.218084
9 4 245 283.95 -38.9546 38.9546 1517.46086
10 5 264 272.27 -8.2682 8.26822 68.363462
11 6 283 269.79 13.2122 13.212246 174.563444
12 7 340 273.75 66.2486 66.2485722 4388.87332

suma -38.58 198 8026

MAD 28.2145197
ECM 1146.5844

DESV EST 35.2681497


33.8612521

L 4
R 8
NS 97.50%
K 1.96

ISSC 132.736108
ISSP 229.905684
97.1695753
APE APE`

alfa 0.30

0.04163823 0.03997379
0.11681481 0.10459641
0.10218113 0.09270811
0.15899837 0.13718601
0.03131902 0.03036792
0.04668638 0.04897274
0.19484874 0.24200265

0.69 0.70
Mes Per. T Demanda Pronostico 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡
1 558
2 539
3 522
4 515
5 0 534
6 1 543 534 9.4000 9.4 88.36
7 2 566 533.60 32.4000 32.4 1049.76
8 3 511 533.60 -22.6000 22.6 510.76
9 4 497 533.60 -36.6000 36.6 1339.56
10 5 515 533.60 -18.6000 18.6 345.96
11 6 531 533.600 -2.6000 2.6 6.76
12 7 591 533.600 57.4000 57.4 3294.76

suma 18.80 180 6636

MAD 25.6571429
ECM 947.988571

SIMULACIÓN
DESV EST 32.0714286
30.789423

L 4
R 8
NS 97.50%
K 1.96

ISSC 120.694538
ISSP 209.049073
88.3545343
APE APE`

alfa 0.0

0.01731123 0.01761619
0.05724382 0.06071964
0.04422701 0.04235382
0.07364185 0.0685907
0.0361165 0.03485757
0.00489642 0.00487256
0.09712352 0.10757121

0.33 0.34

CALI ISSC 132.74 SUMATORIA ISSC 346.08


ISSP 229.91 ISSP 599.42

MEDELLIN ISSC 92.65


ISSP 160.47

BOGOTA ISSC 120.69


ISSP 209.049
Mes Per. T Demanda Pronostico 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡 𝑒𝑡
1 423
2 392
3 404
4 380
5 0 397
6 1 391 399 -8.2000 8.2 67.24
7 2 384 399.12 -15.1180 15.118 228.553924
8 3 378 398.97 -20.9668 20.96682 439.607541
9 4 371 398.76 -27.7572 27.7571518 770.459476
10 5 388 398.48 -10.4796 10.4795803 109.821603
11 6 404 398 5.6252 5.62521552 31.6430497
12 7 446 398 47.5690 47.5689634 2262.80628

suma -29.33 136 3910

MAD 19.3879616
ECM 558.590267

DESV EST 24.234952


23.6345143

L 4
R 8
NS 97.50%
K 1.96

ISSC 92.6472961
ISSP 160.469824
67.8225279
APE APE`

alfa 0.01

0.02097187 0.02054108
0.03936979 0.03787852
0.05546778 0.05255279
0.07481712 0.06960916
0.02700923 0.02629891
0.0139238 0.01412041
0.10665687 0.11939071

0.34 0.34

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