1. Estimation the future age structure of the population 15 years.

Male
Age Death Survival
Group Number Rate Rate Survivor
0 - 14 30,000 0.01 0.99 39,000
15 - 29 36,000 0.02 0.98 29,700
30 - 44 40,000 0.05 0.95 35,280
45 - 59 18,000 0.15 0.85 38,000
60+ 12,000 0.6 0.4 20,100
136,000 162,080

Female
Age Death Survival Birth
Group Number Rate Rate Survivor Rate
0 - 14 30,000 0.01 0.99 39,000  
15 - 29 35,000 0.02 0.98 29,700 1.2
30 - 44 40,000 0.04 0.96 34,300 0.9
45 - 59 19,000 0.1 0.9 38,400  
60+ 14,000 0.45 0.55 24,800  
138,000 166,200

12000 14000 60+ 21000 24800

18000 19000 45-59 38000 38400
40000 40000 30-44 35280 34300
36000 35000 15-29 29700 29700
30000 30000 0-14 39000 39000

Male Female Male Female

- It can be seen that in 15 years time the population of the older people is increasing
rapidly due to the improvement in the medical services.

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 - The younger population is slightly decreasing because of the small birth rate since
marriage is no longer become the priority.
- The female population is slightly bigger than the male population due to the
bigger survival rate for female population.

2. Headship rate method

Headship rate method (Present Time)

Headship
Age Group Male Headship Rate Household Women Rate Household
0 - 14 30,000 0.00 0 30,000 0 0
15 - 29 36,000 0.33 11,880 35,000 0.07 2,450
30 - 44 40,000 0.88 35,200 40,000 0.18 7,200
45 - 59 18,000 0.91 16,380 19,000 0.2 3,800
60+ 12,000 0.35 4,200 14,000 0.41 5,740
136,000 67,660 138,000 19,190

Headship rate method (15 years Time)

Headship
Age Group Male Headship Rate Household Women Rate Household
0 - 14 39,000 0.00 0 39,000 0 0
15 - 29 29,700 0.33 9,801 29,700 0.07 2,079
30 - 44 35,280 0.88 31,046 34,300 0.18 6,174
45 - 59 38,000 0.91 34,580 38,400 0.2 7,680
60+ 20,100 0.35 7,035 24,800 0.41 10,168
162,080 82,462 166,200 26,101

Total population at present time = 67,660 + 19,190 = 86,850

Total population at 15 years time = 82,462 + 26,101 = 108,563

Average household at present time = population at present / households at present

= 274,000 / 86,850
= 3.15

Average household size after 15 years = Forecast population / Forecast household

= 328,280 / 108,563
= 3.02

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The average household size is decreasing after 15 years time

3. The present employment:

- The basic sector = 55,090
- The non basic sector = 79,330
The basic sector annual rate = 1.6 % for the next 15 years

(a) . Estimate the labour demand and supply after 15 years.

Et = Bt + Nt = 55,090 + 79,330 = 134,420

m = E / B = 134,420 / 55,090 = 2.44
Annual growth rate = 0.016
n = 15 years

Average growth rate for 15 years forecast = (1 + r)n

= (1 + 0.016)15
= 1.269

B(t+15) = 55,090 x 1.269 = 69,909

E(t+15) = mB(t+15)
= 2.44 x 69,909
= 170,578
Therefore the labour demand for 15 years is 170,578

Pt(15-60) = (36,000 + 40,000 + 18,000) + (35,000 + 40,000 + 19,000) = 188,000

Pt = total population = 136,000 + 138,000 = 274,000
P(t+15)(15-60) = (29,700 + 35,280 + 38,000) + (29,700 + 34,300 + 38400) = 205,380
P(t+15) = 162,080 + 166,200 = 328,280
wt = Pt(15-60) / Pt = 188,000 / 274,000 = 0.686
w(t+15) = P(t+15)(15-60) / P(t+15) = 205,380 / 328,280 = 0.626

Ls = aP = (wp)P
134,420 = (0.686p)(274,000)
P = 0.715

Ls(t+15) = (0.626)(0.715)(328280)
= 146,935
Therefore the labour supply after 15 years is 146,935

(b) . The population demand and the amount of in-migration

Labour need = Labour demand – Labour supply

= 170,578 – 146,935
= 23,643

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Balance the system, Ld = Ls

170,578 = (0.626)(0.715)Pt+n
Pt+15 = 381,103
Therefore the population demand is 381,103

Hence, the amount of migration = 381,103 – 328,280 = 52,823

(c) . Present time have 91,421 dwelling units with no housing shortage or oversupply

(i) Without migration

Present = 86,850, St = 3.15, Pt = 274,000

Future = 108,563, S(t+15) = 3.02, P(t+15) = 328,280

At present Hd = Hs = 91,421
= Pt / (St O)
O = 274,000 / (3.15 x 91,421) = 0.95

H(t+15) = 328,280 / (3.02 x 0.95) = 114,423

Therefore the future housing demand after 15 years is 114,423

(ii) With migration

Total population with migration = 381,103

H(t+15) = 381,103 / (3.02 x 0.95) = 132,834
Therefore the future housing demand after 15 years with migration is 132,834

(d) . Average density = 140 du/ha (dwelling units per hectare)

(i) Without migration

New land needed for housing after 15 years = (114,423 / 140) – (91,421 / 140)
= 164.3 ha

(ii) With migration

New land needed for housing after 15 years with migration

= (132,834 / 140) – (91,421 / 140)
= 295.8 ha