Racially Polarized Voting in City of Houston

Elections: 1997 – 2009

By Richard Murray, Ph.D.

Hobby Center for Public Policy

The University of Houston

March 2011

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 I. Measuring Racial/Ethnic Polarized Voting in the City of Houston

In the absence of individual data from sources like exit polls, the most common measure of
racially or ethnically polarized voting utilizes voter precinct data to analyze electoral
behavior. Do Black voters consistently support different candidates than White voters?
Do Latinos vote differently than Anglo (non-Hispanic Whites) or Black voters? In a large
city like Houston that remains significantly segregated by race, and somewhat segregated
by Hispanic ethnicity, precinct-level data provides a useful tool to investigate patterns of
voter polarization along racial or ethnic lines. This is especially the case with Black and
Anglo voters because there are relatively few neighborhoods within the City of Houston
that contain substantial numbers of African American and non-Hispanic White voters.
That permits one to draw a representative sample of homogenous Black precincts and
contrast their voting patterns with a similar sample of precincts that contain almost no
African American voters and few (Less than 5% Hispanic surname registered voters).

Precinct-level data is somewhat less helpful in examining Latino voting patterns because
there are many neighborhoods in the City that contain significant numbers of Hispanic and
non-Hispanic (usually Anglo) voters. These mixed Anglo-Hispanic precincts thus limit
our ability to contrast Latino and White voting patterns because of the ecological problems
of inferring how individuals in these heterogeneous units are behaving. It is somewhat
easier to contrast Latino and Black voting patterns in Houston. Not only are there, as
noted, many African American precincts in Houston that contain virtually no Hispanic or
Anglo voters, but there are also very few Black voters registered in precincts with
majorities of Spanish-surname voters.

The following analysis is based on representative samples of three precinct groupings in

the City of Houston.

(1) Homogeneous Black. These 20 precincts were at least 95 percent Black in the
2000 census and each gave Barack Obama at least 97% of their votes in the 2008
presidential election. We can therefore reasonably assume these are still virtually
entirely Black precincts in early 2011.

This sample includes the following Harris County precincts:

031 169 259 422

068 195 288 455
104 219 318 580
132 240 327
156 253 402

And precincts 2017 and 2116 in Fort Bend County.

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(2) Homogenous Anglo. While many non-Hispanic whites in Houston live in
neighborhoods with substantial numbers of Asian Americans and Hispanic
residents, it is possible to identify 20 precincts that were less than five percent
Black in the 2000 census, and that currently have five percent or less of their
registered voters with Spanish or Asian-American surnames. These precincts can
reasonably be assumed to be representative of the Anglo voters in the City. The
precincts in this simple are all in Harris County.

040 130 234 385

056 148 274 578
092 175 303 612
095 178 304 745
098 227 309 760

(3) Predominately Hispanic. As mentioned, most Latinos in Houston live in precincts

with many non-Hispanic registered voters. It is possible, however to identify
precincts that were more than 80% Hispanic in the 2000 census of population and
currently have more than 60% Spanish-surname registered voters. The collective
behavior of voters in these precincts can provide insight into the extent of voter
polarization along Latino-Anglo and Latino-Black lines.

The following 20 precincts in Harris County constitute the local predominately

Hispanic sample. In each precinct we have listed the total voter registration as of
the November 2010 election, and the number of Spanish surname voters in each
precinct and their percentage of the total registration.

Table One: Hispanic Surname Voters in Selected Precincts: October 2010

Pct Reg. Voters Spanish % Spanish

# as of 10/2010 Surname Surname

010 1738 1261 72.5

011 1847 1199 64.9
046 2549 1587 67.3
062 2235 1715 76.7
064 2156 1612 74.8

065 2221 1713 77.1

069 1362 1012 74.3
072 1808 1238 68.5
078 1493 1060 67.0
079 3054 2279 74.6

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 Table One (Cont’d)

Pct Voters Span Surname %

142 871 584 67.0

153 1766 1091 61.8
154 2142 1585 74.0
187 305 239 78.4
226 2421 1625 67.1

339 1743 1220 70.0

343 1896 1236 65.2
530 1177 887 75.4
543 1553 1005 64.7
560 1182 891 75.4

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 II. Results from the Analysis of City Elections: 1997 – 2009

Introduction

Using the three sets of sample precincts, we analyzed the results in 19 city elections
between 1997 and 2009. These were contests that met three conditions:

a) The candidates were competing throughout the city, enabling us to examine data
from all precincts in our racial/ethnic samples.1 The criterion excludes district
council contests, which did not feature the degree of racial/ethnic diversity present
city-wide.
b) The analyzed contests for mayor, controller, and at-large council positions were
normally the decisive election that produced the winner of the office in question.
One exception is the 2003 General Election for mayor where we analyzed the votes
received by the major African American candidate, Sylvester Turner, who was
eliminated in the first round of balloting. In several other cases we compared the
vote received by a minority candidate opposed by several White contenders.
c) All contests included featured candidates opposed by an opponent, or opponents, of
a different racial/ethnic group. This criterion reflects our assumption that racially
polarized voting is more likely to be evident in contests with such diverse
candidates.

The elections analyzed include the following:

(1) Mayor runoff, December 2009, between Annise Parker (White) and Gene Locke
(Black).
(2) December 2009 runoff for At-Large Council Position 2 between Sue Lovell
(White) and Andrew Burks (Black).
(3) December 2009 runoff for At-Large Council Position 5 between Jack Christie
(White) and Jolanda Jones (Black).
(4) December 2009 runoff for Controller between M. J. Khan (Asian American) and
Ron Green (Black).
(5) November 2009 General Election between C.O. Bradford (Black) and the
combined vote for three Anglo opponents.
(6) December 2007 Runoff for Council At-Large Position 5, Jolanda Jones (Black) v.
Joe Trevino (Hispanic).
(7) November 2005 General Election for Council At-Large Position 1, Roy Morales
(Hispanic) versus combined vote for Peter Brown (White) and Grif Griffin (White)
(8) December 2003 Runoff for Mayor, Bill White (White) v. Orlando Sanchez
(Hispanic).
(9) December 2003 Runoff for Council At-Large Position 4, Ron Green (Black) v.
Bert Keller (White).

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In several cases, precinct data was not available from precincts 2017 and 2116 in Fort Bend County. The
Final Official Canvass of the runoff election held on December 6, 1997 does not include returns for recinct
329, one of our Hispanic sample boxes.

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 (10) November 2003 General Election for Mayor, Sylvester Turner (Black) v.
the field.
(11) December 2001 Runoff for Mayor, Lee Brown (Black) v. Orlando Sanchez,
(Hispanic).
(12) December 2001 Runoff election for At-Large Council Position 3, Andrew
Burks (Black) v. Shelley Sekula Rodriquez (White).
(13) November 2001 General Election, Council At-Large Position 2, Jack
Terence (White), v. Gordon Quan (Asian American).
(14) November 2001 General Election, James Galvan (Hispanic) v. Carroll
Robinson (Black).
(15) November 1999 General Election for Mayor, Lee Brown (Black) v.
Combined vote for Josey Wales (White) and Jack Terence (White).
(16) November 1999 General Election for At-Large Council 3, Andrews Burks
(Black) v. Orlando Sanchez (Hispanic).
(17) December 1997 Runoff for Mayor between Rob Mosbacher (White) and
Lee Brown (Black).
(18) December 1997 Runoff for At-Large Council Position 4, Chris Bell (White)
v. Richard Johnson (Black).
(19) November 1997 General Election for At-Large Council Position 3, Andrew
Burks (Black) v. Orlando Sanchez (Hispanic).

Polarization Scores

In each of the 19 contests, polarization scores were calculated by comparing the percentage
of the vote received by a specified candidate in our sample of Black precincts, with the
same person’s vote share in the sample of White and Hispanic percents. This give us three
polarization scores in each contest: Black v. White, Black v. Hispanic, and White v.
Hispanic. For example, Annise Parker received 11.3% of the vote in our 2009 Black
precincts, compared to 69.2% in the White boxes, and 60.6% in the Hispanic boxes. The
Black-White polarization score is thus 57.9 (69.2 – 11.3). The Black-Hispanic polarization
score is 49.3 (60.6 – 11.3), and the White-Hispanic score is 8.6 (69.2 – 60.6). Higher
scores indicate greater the polarization along racial/ethnic lines; lower scores less
polarization.

Table Two on the following page reports the polarization scores for each of the 19 contests
analyzed. In addition, an attached Appendix provides the raw precinct data used to
calculate the scores each election.

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 Table Two: Racial Polarization Scores in Houston City Elections: 1997 – 2009

Contest/ Black-White Black/Hispanic White/Hispanic

Year Score Score Score

RO Mayor, 2009 57.9 49.3 8.6

RO Council #2, 2009 42.2 45.0 2.8
RO Council #5, 2009 69.0 49.3 19.7
RO Controller, 2009 51.7 32.0 19.7

GE Council #4, 2009 48.2 48.6 0.4

RO Council #5, 2007 49.0 66.6 27.6

GE Council #1, 2005 16.2 52.8 36.6

RO Mayor, 2003 43.9 40.6 3.3

RO Council #4, 2003 58.3 34.5 23.8

DE Mayor, 2003 77.7 75.8 1.9

RO Mayor, 2001 75.0 73.0 2.0

RO Council #3, 2001 54.1 63.7 9.6

GE Council #2, 2001 10.1 8.9 1.2

GE Council #4, 2001 32.6 67.4 33.8

GE Mayor, 1999 47.8 30.3 17.5

GE Council #3, 1999 39.5 51.0 21.5

RO Mayor, 1997 77.8 55.3 20.5

RO Council #4, 1997 42.3 24.9 17.4

GE Council #3, 1997 44.2 64.2 20.0

Mean Scores 49.3 49.1 15.1

In general, we note there is a high degree of polarization between Black voters and both
White (49.3 mean score) and Hispanic voters (49.1 mean score). Conversely, there is a
much lower level of polarization in city elections between Hispanic and White voters
(mean score of 15.1).

To better understand what is driving polarized voting in Houston, we need to look at the
race or ethnicity of the candidates in each contest. Table Three organizes the data in this
fashion.

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 Table Three: Racial Polarization Scores Categorized by Racial/Ethnicity Matchups

When the contest is Black/White Black/Hispanic White/Hispanic

Black v. White (9) Score Score Score

RO Mayor, 2009 57.9 49.3 8.6

RO Council #2, 2009 42.2 45.0 2.8
RO Council #5, 2009 69.0 49.3 19.7
GE Council #4, 2009 48.2 48.6 0.4
RO Council #4, 2003 58.3 34.5 23.8
RO Council #3, 2001 54.1 63.7 9.6
GE Mayor, 1999 47.8 30.3 17.5
RO Mayor, 1997 77.8 55.3 20.5
RO Council #4, 1997 42.3 24.9 17.4

Mean Score 55.3 44.5 13.3

When the contest is

Black v. Hispanic (5)

RO Council # 5, 2007 49.0 66.6 27.6

RO Mayor, 2001 75.0 73.0 2.0
GE Council #4, 2001 32.6 67.4 33.8
GE Council #3, 1999 39.5 51.0 21.5
GE Council #3, 1997 44.2 64.2 20.0

Mean Score 48.1 64.4 21.0

When the contest is

Black v. Asian American (1)

RO Controller, 2009 51.7 32.0 19.7

When the contest is

Black v. Mixed Field (1) 77.7 75.8 1.9

When the contest is

Hispanic v. White (2)

GE Council #1, 2005 15.1 31.3 67.9

RO Mayor, 2003 43.9 40.6 3.3

When the contest is

White v. Asian American (1)

GE Council #2, 2001 10.1 8.9 1.2

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These data show a consistent pattern of racial/ethnic voters supporting a candidate that
shared their heritage. When Blacks opposed Whites, polarization increased between the
sample precincts representing these racial communities (racial polarization scores averaged
55.3). The same happened when Hispanic candidates faced Black opponents. In fact, these
five contests featured the highest average polarization score – 64.4 – of the elections we
studied. That reflects the fact that both communities tend to rally behind a candidate as
Table 4 shows. In the 16 contests with an African American, Black voters averagely
supported those candidates by 86.1%. Voters in our predominately Hispanic precincts
gave, on average, 75.7% of their votes to the eight Latino candidates on the ballot. White
voters tended to support Anglo candidates, but at a lower level (mean = 63.9%).

Table Four: Racial/Ethnic Vote Support for a Candidate sharing Voters’ Identity

Black Voter % for a White Voter % for Hispanic Voter % for

Black Candidate White Candidate (s) a Hispanic
Candidate

RO-Mayor 2009 Locke……..88.7 Parker……… 69.2 na

RO-CC #2, 2009 Burks……...79.7 Lovell………. 62.5 na
RO-CC #5, 2009 Jones…… 93.6 Christie……... 75.4 na
RO-Contr., 2009 Green…… 84.2 na na
GE-CC#4, 2009 Bradford…. 88.2 3 Others……. 60.0 na

RO-CC#5, 2007 Jones…….. 89.5 na Trevino……. 77.1

GE-CC#1, 2005 na Brown/Griffin 68.7 Morales….. 67.9
RO-Mayor, 2003 na White………. 50.8 Sanchez…. 54.1
RO-CC#4, 2003 Green……. 90.7 Keller………. 67.6 na
GE-Mayor, 2003 Turner…… 82.4 na na

RO-Mayor, 2001 Brown……. 97.8 na Sanchez…. 75.2

RO-CC#3, 2001 Burks…….. 78.3 na Sanchez…. 85.4
GE-CC#2, 2001 na Terence…….. 37.2 na
GE-CC#4, 2001 Robinson… 91.9 na Galvan…… 75.5
GE-Mayor 1999 Brown….. 98.3 Wales/Terence 50.5 na

GE-CC#3, 1999 Burks….. 76.0 na Sanchez…… 85.0

RO-Mayor, 1997 Brown… 98.3 Mosbacher…. 79.5 na
RO-CC#4, 1997 Johnson… 61.3 Bell………… 81.0 na
GE-CC# 3, 1997 Burks… 78,5 na Sanchez…. 85.7

MEAN……….. 86.1 63.9 75.7

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 III. Conclusions

This analysis of 19 city-wide elections in Houston between 1997 and 2002 shows a high
degree of polarization across three different groups of voter precincts which are
representative of the Black, Anglo, and Hispanic communities that account for about 95
percent of the vote in municipal elections.

This polarization is rooted in the very strong tendency of African American voters to rally
behind a black candidate, if such a choice is available. Interestingly, Black racial cohesion
is not only evident in high-profile mayoral races where well-funded candidates are highly
visible, but extends to down-ballot contests for at-large council seats with under-financed
contenders like Andrew Burks.

Hispanic precincts, despite being less ethnically homogeneous, also reflect strong voter
cohesion behind Latino candidacies in Houston. Here again, underfunded contenders like
James Galvan also garner large majorities in these precincts.

Voters in the Anglo neighborhoods analyzed were less inclined to block up behind a
White, non-Hispanic candidate than was in the in our other two precinct groups. However,
in the 11 elections where an Anglo faced off against a Black or Hispanic opponent, a
majority of White voters voted against the minority contender in every case.

We should also note that the greatest polarization measured in any grouping of elections
occurred in the five cases where an African American candidate faced a Hispanic
opponent.

Finally, it is interesting to note that the lowest polarization measured occurred when an
Asian American (Gordon Quan) faced an Anglo opponent (Jack Terence) in a 2005 at-
large city council election. In that one case, there was virtually no difference in
racial/ethnic polarization across our three precinct samples.

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