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Weekly Equity Monitor & Model Portfolio

April 14, 2011


Weekly Equity Monitor & Model Portfolio

The information and opinions expressed in this document were produced by the Investment Research department of Clariden Leu
Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. The report is published solely for information purposes and
does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Clariden Leu Ltd. to buy or sell any securities or related financial
instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. It has been prepared without taking account of
the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is
based upon sources that Clariden Leu Ltd. believes to be reliable, no representation is made that the information is accurate or
complete. Clariden Leu Ltd. does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this report. The price and value of
investments mentioned and any income that might accrue may fluctuate and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to
individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past
performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value,
price or income of any products mentioned in this document. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably
more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks; economic
risks; credit risks; currency risks; and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of
the transaction to individual circumstances and objectives. Clariden Leu Ltd. recommends that investors independently assess,
with a professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting
consequences. Clariden Leu Ltd. may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the
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Clariden Leu Ltd. © Clariden Leu Ltd. All rights reserved.

2
Table of contents

04 CL Top Fundamental Picks

06 Closed Top Recommendations

07 CL Top Dividend Picks

08 Sector Recommendations

10 Model Portfolio

12 Rating Changes

13 Agenda: Company and Economic Events

14 Figures

15 Marketdata

16 Markets and Forecasts at a Glance

17 Recent Research

Alcoa: Aluminium price increases surpass cost inflation


Givaudan: Still some headwinds in 2011
Rio Tinto: Production hit by floods
Sanofi-aventis: Resuming coverage with Marketperform
Sulzer: Complementary acquisition in the pump segment

27 CL Universe Rated Stocks

3
14.04.2011
CL Top Fundamental Picks

ALCOA Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Materials, US 986'052 OP USD 16.55 20.00 13.01.2011 15.9

– Thanks to relatively low prices and attractive material properties, aluminium is gaining market share. High Low
Cyclicality
– Falling global oversupply of aluminium is likely to lift aluminium prices further.
– Focus on aluminium, attractive bauxite mines and below-average production costs provide upside potential. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

ALLIANZ Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Insurance, DE 322'646 OP EUR 104.4 120.00 05.08.2009 70.58

– Allianz is well diversified and has substantial activities in growth markets like Eastern Europe and India. High Low
Cyclicality
– Strong capitalization has allowed the company to hold on to substantial stock investments despite the crisis.
– Severe competition in German non-life insurance a headwind. Valuation is very attractive, however. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Food, Beverage & Tobacco, BE 1'147'290 OP EUR 41.57 50.00 21.07.2010 41.48

– Leading position in the top five beer markets China, USA, Russia, Brazil and Germany. High Low
Cyclicality
– Positioning, top line growth, cost savings and debt reduction are all in favor of ABI.
– Considering A-B InBev's good growth prospects and high profitability, the share is very attractively valued. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

BNP PARIBAS Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Banks, FR 123'397 OP EUR 53.47 62.00 19.01.2011 53.02

– BNP is one of the best capitalized banks in Europe (Basel 3 common Tier 1 Ratio of 8.5% by Dec 2012). High Low
Cyclicality
– With the exception of Italy, BNP has a limited exposure to the European periphery.
– The Fortis acquisition synergies estimate of EUR 900 m could be surpassed by a wide margin. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

BP PLC Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Energy, GB 844'183 OP GBp 464.2 550.00 24.03.2011 478

– Above-average leverage to higher oil prices provides good earnings momentum. High Low
Cyclicality
– Uncertainty around Macondo settlement remains, but substantial reserves and cash flows provide protection.
– Still substantial valuation discount to peers is likely to narrow further. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Food, Beverage & Tobacco, GB 909'525 OP GBp 2530 2'700.00 24.02.2011 2260

– With an EMMA revenue share of 53%, BAT is benefitting form increasing cigarette consumption in those regions. High Low
Cyclicality
– High margins, healthy balance sheet, strong cash flows and attractive dividend yield as positive attributes.
– Tobacco companies are less affected by higher raw material prices and are cheaper than other consumer staples.Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

CITIGROUP Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Diversified Financials, US 942'676 OP USD 4.5 5.50 22.07.2010 3.94

– There is clear evidence of a turnaround after the return to profitability. High Low
Cyclicality
– After massive recapitalizations, the bank now has strong capital levels. No further dilution is expected.
– The bank is currently trading below tangible book value and offers a recovery story. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

Entry price: Dividend adjusted


Clariden Leu Ltd.
Bahnhofstrasse 32, CH-8070 Zurich
Tel. +41 58 205 75 75
Fax +41 58 205 37 88
Disclaimer
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the
recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Clariden Leu Ltd. to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and
analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but Clariden Leu Ltd. does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not
accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The issuer of the securities mentioned herein or Clariden Leu Ltd. may have traded on the basis of the information and analysis contained in this publication before they were
made available to the clients of Clariden Leu Ltd. Clariden Leu Ltd. may legally participate in other financial transactions with the issuers of the securities mentioned herein, invest in them, provide services to them or acquire business
from such issuers and/or take out positions on such securities or hold options or carry out transactions with them. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Consult the specific securities prospectus
or speak to your advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent or taken into the United States or distributed in the United States. In certain other jurisdictions the
distribution may be restricted by local law or regulation. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of Clariden Leu Ltd.

4
14.04.2011
CL Top Fundamental Picks

HENKEL Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Household & Personal Products, D 335'910 OP EUR 43.74 53.00 27.10.2010 43.15

– Undisputed market leader in adhesive technology which has a promising future. Stong emerging market exposure. High Low
Cyclicality
– Due to its strong position Henkel wants to outperform its underlying markets again in 2011.
– Despite higher raw material prices, Henkel confirmed its operating margin target of 14% in 2012. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

HEWLETT-PACKARD Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Technology Hardware, US 938'718 OP USD 41.13 51.00 24.02.2011 43.18

– HP's broad product range enables the company to offer complete IT solutions at attractive prices. High Low
Cyclicality
– HP is gaining substantial market share in networking, among others from Cisco.
– HP's valuation is attractive, thanks to a P/E ratio below 10, a solid balance sheet and high cash flows. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

KABA Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Capital Goods, CH 1'179'595 OP CHF 387 440.00 11.03.2010 298

– Over the next three years Kaba is targeting average organic growth of 4-6%. High Low
Cyclicality
– Kaba is examining various strategic options for its Door Automation Business.
– Undemandig valuation leaving plenty of upside potential. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

NOVARTIS Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Pharma & Biotech, CH 1'200'526 OP CHF 49.61 60.00 21.10.2010 55.1

– Novartis has launched ten new products in four years. High Low
Cyclicality
– Integration of Alcon supports profits ahead of upcoming patent expiries in pharma division.
– Sandoz well positioned to benefit from growth in generics. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Energy, NL 1'987'674 OP EUR 25.28 29.50 09.12.2010 24.35

– In 2011 the oil price should continue to strengthen and we expect further recovery in refinery margins. High Low
Cyclicality
– Several large projects will come on stream in the next two years. Shell's output should rise as a result.
Balance Sheet
– Under CEO Peter Voser Shell has been more tightly managed. There is scope for further operational improvement.
Strong Weak

SIEMENS Valor Rating Cur. Price Target Price Date of entry / Price
Capital Goods, DE 827'766 OP EUR 93.74 110.00 23.09.2010 76.45

– Strong position in the emerging markets (30% of sales). High Low


Cyclicality
– Siemens had an order book worth EUR 92 bn at the end of the last quarter.
– Siemens is less expensive than the overall industrial sector and has a solid balance sheet. Balance Sheet
Strong Weak

Entry price: Dividend adjusted


Clariden Leu Ltd.
Bahnhofstrasse 32, CH-8070 Zurich
Tel. +41 58 205 75 75
Fax +41 58 205 37 88
Disclaimer
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the
recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Clariden Leu Ltd. to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and
analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but Clariden Leu Ltd. does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not
accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The issuer of the securities mentioned herein or Clariden Leu Ltd. may have traded on the basis of the information and analysis contained in this publication before they were
made available to the clients of Clariden Leu Ltd. Clariden Leu Ltd. may legally participate in other financial transactions with the issuers of the securities mentioned herein, invest in them, provide services to them or acquire business
from such issuers and/or take out positions on such securities or hold options or carry out transactions with them. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Consult the specific securities prospectus
or speak to your advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent or taken into the United States or distributed in the United States. In certain other jurisdictions the
distribution may be restricted by local law or regulation. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of Clariden Leu Ltd.

5
14.04.2011
Closed Top Recommendations

Name Date Rationale Entry Date

K+S AG 10.03.2011 Measured in terms of the GSCI Agricultural Index, agricultural prices have risen 14.10.2010
by 93% since their June lows, which has helped the stock to outperform the
general stock market by 14% since being in the Top Pick list. The company is
very likely to report good results over the coming quarters. However, its current
valuation already factors in another substantial earnings recovery and its longer-
term valuation is starting to look expensive. A normalisation of global weather
patterns is likely to bring lower agricultural prices by spring 2012, even though
prices may continue to rise in the short term.

MICROSOFT 10.03.2011 Despite rising competition, Microsoft has managed to extend the strong growth 15.07.2010
experienced in recent years by disclosing record results in recent quarters.
Furthermore, the cooperation with Nokia announced in February will enable it to
regain substantial market share in smart phone operating systems. These news,
however, have not helped the stock's performance: It has risen by just 2% since
being added to the list (vs. +19% for the general market), which is why it has
now been cancelled. Few investors may currently like the stock and there are no
further apparent, company specific catalysts. However, we continue to expect a
strong performance in the medium and longer term.

SAP 24.02.2011 SAP has clearly outperformed the market and the sector recently, thanks to 28.04.2010
positive operational news and new product launches. The stock has also
outperformed the market by 9.9% since its inclusion in the Top Pick list.
Although SAP is one of the most attractive longer-term investments in the
European tech sector, the stock is looking a bit overbought in the short term.

SYNGENTA 24.02.2011 We are reducing the exposure to agricultural stocks in the Top Pick list after a 23.09.2010
very strong performance. Despite K+S being the riskier stock of the two, we
prefer it for now as we see a higher potential for earnings upgrades in the short-
term. We maintain our Outperform rating and price target of CHF 330.

SWATCH GROUP BR 19.01.2011 Despite excellent sales figures investors took profit. The outstanding share price 27.01.2010
performance in 2010 and the strength of the Swiss franc are the main factors.
The stock gained 37.7% since inception and outperformed the SMI by about
33%. Due to the healthy growth outlook we stick to our Outperform rating.
Currently, we see more price potential in other sectors, however.

FRANCE TELECOM 13.01.2011 We want to add more risk to our list which is why we are removing France 25.08.2010
Telecom – a relatively defensive stock. France Telecom is still attractively valued
and offers a sustainable dividend yield of above 8%. France Telecom is up by 3%
since it was added to the list.

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO 09.12.2010 Consumer Staples lost attractiveness owing to negative earnings revisions and 22.09.2010
price momentum. Due to its strong positioning in emerging markets, attractive
margin, high dividend yield and the relatively compelling valuation against the
sector we stick to our Outperform Rating for BAT, however.

SWISS RE 28.10.2010 The reinsurance industry has seen its capital base recovering to a pre-crisis level 01.07.2009
in the last 18 months. This likely to result in pricing pressure. Swiss Re has
excess capital of about CHF 2-3 bn, which will be returned to shareholders
probably not before 2012. Since the inclusion in the Top Fundamental Picks, the
share has outperformed both the European insurance sector by 19.8% and the
SMI by 10.7%.

SANOFI-AVENTIS 21.10.2010 We are restricted on Sanofi-aventis. The company has recently made a public 13.01.2010
offer to acquire Genzyme, a U.S. biotechnology company.

ERICSSON 23.09.2010 Recent news flow on mobile network equipment have pointed to a further 24.06.2010
deterioration of pricing levels and a positive trigger for the stock does not seem
to materialize for now. However, Ericsson remains Outperform-rated, due to
the inexpensive valuation and attractive growth outlook.

AHOLD 22.09.2010 The restructuring of the US business is almost complete and Ahold is already 18.06.2009
earning high margins in the Netherlands. Apart from share buybacks, Ahold will
likely use its high cash holding for targeted acquisitions, which could support the
share price. However, these catalysts are likely to take time to materialize.

Explanatory notes
•Our views are intended to be fundamental in nature.
•Where possible the portfolio should reflect sector views with proportionatley a larger number of stocks where we have an overweight view.
•We will provide a brief rationale for our recommendations each week. Please see our company notes for further colour.

6
14.04.2011
CL Top Dividend Picks
Market Cap Performance P/BV P/E Dividend Yield Dividend Ex-Date Other Liquid
Company Country ISIN / Valor Rating Crncy Price in m 3 m % 12 m % 2010E 2011E 2012E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2010E 2011E 2012E Frequency Expected Listings
PHILIP MORRIS INTL US US7181721090 OP USD 66.1 118'808 18.2 31.9 31.2 48.7 77.5 17.1 14.8 13.4 3.7% 4.1% 4.7% Quarterly 21.06.2011
Consumer Staples 3'754'629
PFIZER US US7170811035 OP USD 20.5 163'582 13.5 24.2 1.7 1.5 1.4 9.2 9.2 9.0 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% Quarterly 04.05.2011
Health Care 962'004
KRAFT FOODS US US50075N1046 OP USD 32.4 56'665 4.0 9.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 16.0 14.5 12.9 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% Quarterly 27.06.2011
Consumer Staples 1'213'349
MCDONALD'S US US5801351017 OP USD 76.9 80'219 6.7 15.1 5.9 5.3 4.9 16.7 15.2 14.0 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% Quarterly 26.05.2011
Consumer Discretionary 950'605
CONOCO PHILLIPS US US20825C1045 OP USD 77.7 111'027 16.5 45.0 1.6 1.5 1.3 13.1 9.7 8.7 2.8% 3.2% 3.5% Quarterly 19.05.2011
Energy 1'330'331
3M COMPANY US US88579Y1010 OP USD 92.9 66'098 6.1 13.4 4.2 3.8 3.3 16.2 14.9 13.3 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% Quarterly 18.05.2011
Industrials 1'405'105
VODAFONE GB GB00B16GWD56 OP GBp 176.4 90'852 2.7 25.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 11.4 10.6 10.6 4.7% 5.0% 5.6% Semi-annual 01.06.2011 US
Telecommunication Services 2'582'928
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO GB GB0002875804 OP GBp 2523.5 50'234 12.4 17.9 5.7 5.0 4.5 14.5 13.1 12.0 4.5% 4.9% 5.4% Semi-annual 17.08.2011 US
Consumer Staples 909'525
TELEFONICA ES ES0178430E18 OP EUR 17.9 81'627 1.8 7.7 3.3 3.3 3.2 10.2 9.7 9.3 7.8% 8.9% 9.8% Semi-annual 05.11.2011
Telecommunication Services 826'858
ENI IT IT0003132476 EUR 17.2 68'972 -1.3 5.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 9.2 7.6 7.0 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% Semi-annual 23.05.2011 US
Energy 1'252'314 confirmed
GDF SUEZ FR FR0010208488 OP EUR 27.1 61'073 -2.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 13.8 13.0 11.7 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% Semi-annual 04.05.2011 US
Utilities 2'200'367 confirmed
DEUTSCHE POST DE DE0005552004 EUR 12.8 15'439 -3.8 6.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 12.1 10.5 9.6 4.8% 5.3% 5.6% Annual 26.05.2011
Industrials 1'124'244 confirmed
ALLIANZ DE DE0008404005 OP EUR 103.3 46'950 9.9 17.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 9.2 8.7 7.9 4.4% 4.8% 5.1% Annual 05.05.2011 US,UK
Financials 322'646 confirmed
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A NL GB00B03MLX29 OP EUR 25.2 158'047 1.0 19.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 11.8 8.7 7.8 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% Quarterly 04.05.2011
Energy 1'987'674
BASF DE DE000BASF111 OP EUR 63.0 57'846 7.9 40.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 11.5 10.5 9.7 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% Annual 09.05.2011
Materials 11'450'563 confirmed
ZURICH FIN SERVICES CH CH0011075394 OP CHF 239.8 35'131 2.4 -0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 10.6 9.4 8.5 6.3% 6.8% 7.0% Annual 04.04.2012 US
Financials 1'107'539
SWISSCOM CH CH0008742519 OP CHF 407.1 21'089 -1.1 8.9 3.1 3.0 2.8 11.2 11.0 10.7 5.4% 5.5% 5.9% Annual 26.04.2011 US
Telecommunication Services 874'251 confirmed
SWISS PRIME SITE CH CH0008038389 CHF 73.2 3'980 5.3 18.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 20.7 19.4 19.0 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% Annual 21.04.2011
Financials 803'838 confirmed
NOVARTIS CH CH0012005267 OP CHF 49.8 131'301 -6.0 -8.7 2.0 1.8 1.7 10.7 10.1 10.0 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% Annual 24.02.2012
Health Care 1'200'526
NESTLE CH CH0038863350 OP CHF 53.5 185'551 1.0 2.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 16.6 16.1 14.6 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% Annual 18.04.2011 US
Consumer Staples 3'886'335 confirmed

Last changes In: Nestlé 31.03.2011 Clariden Leu Ltd.


Bahnhofstrasse 32, CH-8070 Zurich
Out: Marks & Spencer 31.03.2011 Tel. +41 58 205 75 75
Fax +41 58 205 37 88
Disclaimer
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Clariden Leu Ltd. to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide
to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but Clariden Leu Ltd. does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The issuer of the securities mentioned herein or Clariden Leu Ltd. may have traded on the basis of the
information and analysis contained in this publication before they were made available to the clients of Clariden Leu Ltd. Clariden Leu Ltd. may legally participate in other financial transactions with the issuers of the securities mentioned herein, invest in them, provide services to them or acquire business from such issuers and/or take out positions on such securities or hold options or carry out transactions with them.
Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Consult the specific securities prospectus or speak to your advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent or taken into the United States or distributed in the United States. In certain other jurisdictions the distribution may be restricted by local law or regulation. This document may not be
reproduced in whole or in part without the written consent of Clariden Leu Ltd.

7
04/14/2011

Sector Recommendations

Consumer Discretionary
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
VW, Swatch, Adidas, Carnival, 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Gategroup, WPP, Walt Disney - - 9 9 9
Subsectors Fiscal stimulus, low borrowing rates, high demand from Asia and signs of recovery from the labor market have been important
- Automobiles & Components supports for the sector. This coupled with strong inventory and cost management has propelled earnings and sent margins to a new
- Consumer Durables all-time high. Further labor market gains will be required to turn the sector's earnings estimates revisions in positive territory again
- Consumer Services (currently neutral), and a renewed downturn in housing would hamper consumers' sentiment. Input cost inflation mainly puts de-
mand in emerging markets to the test. The tragedy in Japan weighs on the sentiment for luxury goods stocks. Automobile: Rising
- Media
raw material costs are an issue for the car industry, especially for volume players as they have limited pricing power.
- Retailing

Consumer Staples
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
Tesco, Nestlé, Danone, Kraft, ABI 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
BAT, PMI, Henkel, P&G - + 9 9 9
Subsectors Rising raw material costs are weighing on gross profits. The negative pricing seems to have come to an end, however positive pricing
- Food & Staples Retailing will become increasingly difficult to push through as the economic environment in Western Europe and the US remains tough. Cost
- Food Beverage & Tobacco cutting defends profitability meanwhile. A strong positioning in fast growing emerging markets is in favor of producers of consumer
- Household & Personal Products staples, however, input cost inflation mainly puts demand in emerging markets to the test. Staple Retailing: A (too) strong increase in
food prices could weigh on food retailers as it could also be hard for them to pass on higher raw material prices.

Energy
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
BG, BP, Royal Dutch Shell 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Fugro, Chevron, ConocoPhillips + + 9 9 9
Subsectors Global oil markets have been steadily tightening. This process is expected to continue in 2011. Investors are starting to anticipate
- Exploration & Production the possibility of much higher prices within a few years. Nat gas prices are low due to weakness in Europe and the massive increase
- Integrated Oils in supply now coming on stream in the US. As investment in US nat gas projects is scaled back, prices should rise. Our focus is on oil
- Oil Services rather than natural gas related investments. We also believe that the outlook for service companies and companies supplying
capital equipment to energy concerns is favorable. Gradually the Macondo spill is moving to the background – but activity in the
Gulf of Mexico will remain depressed until the regulatory fall-out becomes clearer.

Financials
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
Citi, JPM, Barclays, BNP 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Allianz, Zurich + = 9 9 9
Subsectors Insurers: By its nature, the insurance sector has a high exposure to the recent events in Japan with preliminary estimates for insured
- Banks losses of about USD 25bn. Only a minor part of the economic losses will be paid by private insurers. Earthquake losses in the residen-
- Diversified Financials tial segment are not covered by private insurers. A Japanese government entity covers these losses without any material reinsur-
- Insurance ance. The insurance industry will still experience substantial losses in the industrial and commercial lines. However, tsunami coverage
is usually not part of the normal policy wording. Losses stemming from the nuclear events are usually excluded in P&C but not in life
- Real Estate
insurace policies. For European insurers, we don't expect capital-threatening claims. Banks: We continue to prefer US names.

Health Care
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
Fresenius M.C., Medco Health, 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Novartis, Pfizer = - 9 9 9
Subsectors Pharma companies guided expectations down for 2011 as they continue to feel the impact of healthcare reform in the U.S. and
- Pharmaceuticals Europe. New product launches, which are a key positive driver of the sector continue to be too scarce to change sentiment. We
- Biotechnology recommend to diversify into healthcare services, which can benefit from an increased usage of generics (Medco Health) or have
- Health Care Equipment predictable demand and pricing environment (FMC).
- Health Care Services

* relative to MSCI World

Clariden Leu Ltd


Bahnhofstrasse 32, CH-8070 Zurich
Tel. +41 58 205 75 75
Fax +41 58 205 37 88
Disclaimer
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. It has been prepared solely for
information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Clariden Leu Ltd. to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to
past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and
accurate, but Clariden Leu Ltd. does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The issuer of the
securities mentioned herein or Clariden Leu Ltd. may have traded on the basis of the information and analysis contained in this publication before they were made available to the clients of Clariden
Leu Ltd. Clariden Leu Ltd. may legally participate in other financial transactions with the issuers of the securities mentioned herein, invest in them, provide services to them or acquire business from
such issuers and/or take out positions on such securities or hold options or carry out transactions with them. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Consult
the specific securities prospectus or speak to your advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent or taken into the United States or
distributed in the United States. In certain other jurisdictions the distribution may be restricted by local law or regulation. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part without the
written consent of Clariden Leu Ltd.
8
04/14/2011

Sector Recommendations

Industrials
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
ABB, Sulzer, Kaba 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Siemens, 3M, Honeywell, CSX = + 9 9 9
Subsectors Industrials was the second best performing sector in 2010. The sector consistently outperformed throughout the year. Industrials
- Capital Goods earnings momentum is the second strongest in the market. The cyclical recovery for these companies continues at a solid pace.
- Commercial Services The sector does no longer look cheap on our valuation measures. The loss of momentum in many leading indicators calls for a mid
- Transportation term correction. Mid to long term the sector might get another boost from rising energy prices and also from the consequences
of the Japanese catastrophe. Energy efficiency and energy safety is a appropriate response to this issue. ABB and Siemens are
good bets in this space.

Information Technology
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
Microsoft, SAP, HP, Ericsson 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Corning - + 9 9 9
Subsectors Japan is a very important country for the global technology supply chain, for example in resins widely used for printed circuit
- Semiconductors boards or in semiconductors, where Japan accounts for over 30% of global capacity according to Citigroup. Substantial damage at
- Software & Services some factories, rolling blackouts and already low levels of spare capacities in some areas even before the recent earthquakes are
- Technology Hardware likely to trigger supply chain disruptions in the months ahead. We continue to favour rather defensive companies with high cash
flows and strong balance sheets and see attractive opportunities. Software and IT services companies are generally much better
protected in operational terms than pure hardware plays.

Materials
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
BASF, Lonza, DuPont 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
Alcoa, Rio Tinto + + 9 9 9
Subsectors Prices of most metals have reached new highs in January and February and are currently providing record profit margins to miners.
- Chemicals However, the risks are also substantial: Rising inventories of at least some metals, high oil and food prices, a partially overheated
- Construction Chinese real estate market, high government debt levels and now a potential nuclear desaster in Japan. In mining, we favour more
- Metals&Mining defensive companies with low production costs. Uranium equities have lost at least some of their long-term drivers. In chemicals,
we currently prefer large, diversified companies with good pricing power such as BASF and DuPont.

Telecommunication Services
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
Swisscom, Telefonica 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
France Telecom, AT&T + - 9 9 9
Subsectors The Telecom sector trades at a small discount to the market. The dividend yield at 5.5% is twice the global average but the payout
none ratio is also considerably higher. The earnings growth outlook is uninspiring with EPS forecast to grow by 5-6% in 2011. With the
sector generating little revenue growth this may remain an issue. A bright spot is that the sector continues to generate lots of
cash and some companies are using this for buybacks.

Utilities
Sector Top Picks Rating* Earnings revisions Momentum Valuation
Enel 3 Mt. 12 Mt neg neutral pos neg neutral pos expensive neutral attractive
= - 9 9 9
Subsectors The accidents at nuclear power plants in Japan have had several consequences for European utilities: Germany has delayed a deci-
none sion to prolong the lifetime of nuclear plants, the price of gas has increased in anticipation of a higher demand and power price
futures have also gone up. On balance, higher gas and power prices are likely to outweigh a lower utilization of nuclear power assets.
We have become more positive on utilities and upgraded Enel. We like Enel for its favorable energy mix and supportive regulatory
environment in its domestic market Italy. We continue to be cautious on German utilities as they are pressured by high debt, regula-
tory demands to invest more in renewable forms of energy and generally less support from the government.

* relativ zum MSCI World

Clariden Leu Ltd


Bahnhofstrasse 32, CH-8070 Zurich
Tel. +41 58 205 75 75
Fax +41 58 205 37 88
Disclaimer
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. It has been prepared solely for
information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Clariden Leu Ltd. to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to
past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable and
accurate, but Clariden Leu Ltd. does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. The issuer of the
securities mentioned herein or Clariden Leu Ltd. may have traded on the basis of the information and analysis contained in this publication before they were made available to the clients of Clariden
Leu Ltd. Clariden Leu Ltd. may legally participate in other financial transactions with the issuers of the securities mentioned herein, invest in them, provide services to them or acquire business from
such issuers and/or take out positions on such securities or hold options or carry out transactions with them. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Consult
the specific securities prospectus or speak to your advisor before making any investment decisions. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent or taken into the United States or
distributed in the United States. In certain other jurisdictions the distribution may be restricted by local law or regulation. This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part without the
written consent of Clariden Leu Ltd.
9
EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
14.04.2011 / Investment Research, Tel. +41 58 205 75 75, E-Mail: investment-research.cl@claridenleu.com

Switzerland Europe North America


Stock Rating Stock Rating Stock Rating

Energy
BP PLC OP CHEVRON OP
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A OP CONOCO PHILLIPS OP

Materials
LONZA GROUP OP BASF OP ALCOA OP
SYNGENTA OP K+S AG OP
RIO TINTO OP

Capital Goods
KABA OP PHILIPS ELECTRONICS OP 3M COMPANY OP
SIEMENS OP CATERPILLAR OP

Commercial Services
SGS OP

Consumer Durables
LVMH OP

Consumer Services
GATEGROUP HOLDING OP CARNIVAL CORP OP

Media
WPP GROUP OP WALT DISNEY OP

Food, Beverage & Tobacco


NESTLE OP ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV OP PHILIP MORRIS INTL OP
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO OP

Household & Personal Products


HENKEL OP PROCTER & GAMBLE OP

Health Care Equipment & Services


FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE OP MEDCO HEALTH SOL OP

Pharma & Biotech


NOVARTIS OP PFIZER OP
ROCHE GS MP

Banks
BARCLAYS OP
BNP PARIBAS OP

Explanation °: recommended for smaller portfolios *: neutral sector weight 10


EQUITY MODEL PORTFOLIO
14.04.2011 / Investment Research, Tel. +41 58 205 75 75, E-Mail: investment-research.cl@claridenleu.com

Switzerland Europe North America


Stock Rating Stock Rating Stock Rating

Diversified Financials
UBS OP CITIGROUP OP
JPMORGAN CHASE OP

Insurance
SWISS RE r ALLIANZ OP

Software
SAP OP

Technology Hardware
ERICSSON OP CORNING OP
HEWLETT-PACKARD OP

Telecommunication
SWISSCOM OP FRANCE TELECOM OP
VODAFONE OP

Changes In: Out: In: Out: In: Out:


since 05.03.2011 ROCHE GS VODAFONE SOCIETE GENERALE PHILIP MORRIS INTL MICROSOFT
(10.03.2011) (17.03.2011) (10.03.2011) (10.03.2011) (10.03.2011)
GATEGROUP KINGFISHER PFIZER (17.03.2011) HONEYWELL INTL
HOLDING (10.03.2011) (17.03.2011)
(07.04.2011) SANOFI-AVENTIS
(17.03.2011)
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
(17.03.2011)
GDF SUEZ
(07.04.2011)

This document does not constitute an offer or an invita tion to buy or sell any security and the opinions expressed herein are those of Clariden Leu Ltd. at a particular tim e. Changes in the overall environment ma y affect those appr aisals. Clariden Leu Ltd. as the editor does
not accept any liability for the content of this doc um ent. It is expressly pointed out that Clariden Leu Ltd. may invest or m ay have invested in the securities referred herein. Neither this docum ent nor any copy thereof m ay be sent or taken into the United States or
distributed in the United States. In certain other jurisdic tions the distribution may be restricted by local law or r egulation. This document m ay not be reproduced either in whole, or in part, without the written perm ission of Clariden Leu Ltd.

Explanation °: recommended for smaller portfolios *: neutral sector weight 11


Rating Changes

Equities
Sanofi-aventis The acquisition of Genzyme helps Sanofi-aventis to make up for some profits lost to patent expiries in the
restricted t MP period 2011-13. Sentiment towards Sanofi has been cautious given the com-pany's mixed track record in the
13.04.11 development and launch of new drugs. The absence of promising new launches in the next three years mainly
justifies that we resume coverage with a Marketperform. The price target assumes that Sanofi's valuation gap
relative to peers could close somewhat.

12
Agenda: Company – Economic events

Monday April 18, 2011 Tuesday April 19, 2011 Wednesday April 20, 2011 Thursday April 21, 2011 Friday April 22, 2011

Company results Company results Company results Company results Company results
Citigroup Actelion Abbott Laboratories Du Pont
Kühne & Nagel Goldman Sachs American Express General Electric
Philips Electronics IBM Amgen Honeywell
Texas Instruments Intel AT&T McDonald's
Johnson & Johnson United Technologies Newmont Mining
Novartis Nokia
Temenos Philip Morris International
Tesco Schlumberger
US Bancorp Verizon Communications

Economic events Economic events Economic events Economic events Economic events
10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index 01:00 JN Consumer Confidence 10:00 US Existing Home Sales MoM 01:00 JN Leading Index Ci
10:00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confi. 02:00 EC EU 25 New Car Registrat. 10:00 US Existing Home Sales 04:30 GE IFO – Business Climate
05:00 EC Construction Output WDA 04:30 UK Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel YoY
08:30 US Building Permits MOM% 08:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
08:30 US Housing Starts MOM% 08:30 US Continuing Claims
10:00 US House Price Index MoM
10:00 US Leading Indicators
10:00 US Philadelphia Fed.

13
Figures

Last price (04/14/11) Δ 1W Δ 3M Δ 1.1.11 Δ 3Y Δ 5Y

Switzerland
SMI 6378.4 -1.2% -1.7% 0.2% -4.3% -9.7%
SPI 5819.1 -1.2% -1.4% 0.3% -3.0% -6.0%
SMIM 1403.9 -0.8% -0.8% -1.3% 6.1% 15.0%
United States
Dow Jones 12271.0 -1.3% 5.2% 6.7% 8.7% 26.0%
S&P500 1314.4 -1.6% 2.9% 5.1% 5.5% 13.3%
Nasdaq 2761.5 -1.4% 1.2% 4.3% 24.2% 24.2%
S&P 400 Midcap 974.1 -2.6% 5.7% 7.8% 27.8% 33.5%
S&P 600 Smallcap 435.6 -3.7% 3.5% 5.1% 24.3% 19.0%
Brazil
Brazil Bovespa 66486.5 -3.7% -6.0% -4.1% 6.2% 74.5%
Europe
Stoxx50 2607.7 -0.7% -1.7% 2.0% -4.1% -9.2%
Euro-Stoxx 50 2927.6 -0.7% 1.5% 6.0% -9.0% -4.9%
Stoxx 600 277.5 -1.1% -1.3% 1.7% 0.5% -0.4%
Great Britain
FTSE100 5974.8 -0.5% 1.0% 3.1% 15.7% 22.2%
Germany
Dax Xetra 7153.9 -0.5% 1.5% 3.8% 8.7% 21.3%
France
CAC40 3982.3 -1.0% 0.8% 5.3% -5.7% -6.1%
Italy
FTSE MIB 21920.3 -1.0% 3.7% 9.6% -24.0% -27.5%
Japan
Nikkei 225 9653.9 0.6% -8.1% -4.9% -23.7% -39.5%
Russia
Russian RTS 2042.3 -2.3% 9.8% 16.5% 0.8% 39.2%
China
Shanghai B Share 328.3 1.8% 6.4% 7.7% 35.0% 288.0%
Emerging Markets
MSCI EM 1185.3 -1.5% 2.2% 3.3% 9.8% 65.7%

Sectors Last price (04/14/11) Δ 1W Δ 3M Δ 1.1.11 Δ 3Y Δ 5Y

United States
Energy 300.3 -4.0% 8.6% 11.5% 1.5% 50.1%
Materials 174.3 -3.7% 1.8% 2.6% -4.4% 35.6%
Industrial 145.8 -2.4% 4.4% 7.2% 5.1% 17.7%
Consumer Discretionary 116.5 -0.9% 3.8% 4.6% 34.3% 26.2%
Consumer Staples 121.9 0.7% 4.5% 4.7% 18.9% 51.2%
Health Care 105.7 0.3% 5.3% 7.6% 15.0% 20.9%
Financials 73.6 -2.5% -0.5% 2.6% -27.5% -40.1%
Information Technology 94.8 -0.8% -1.1% 2.6% 22.9% 27.7%
Telecommunications 38.8 -0.6% 5.2% 3.5% 9.7% 26.7%
Utility 95.4 -1.9% 1.5% 2.5% -11.2% 22.8%

Europe
Energy 175.8 -2.5% 1.3% 5.6% 0.7% -5.1%
Materials 263.1 -1.4% -0.7% -0.5% -5.6% 33.5%
Industrial 156.9 -2.6% -1.7% 0.9% 0.6% 3.7%
Consumer Discretionary 95.2 -2.3% -4.6% -2.4% 10.5% 0.9%
Consumer Staples 151.9 0.2% 0.6% -1.5% 10.1% 33.0%
Health Care 94.9 0.6% -0.7% 0.6% 8.5% -15.5%
Financials 63.0 0.1% 0.6% 7.6% -36.7% -47.9%
Information Technology 50.4 -1.9% 0.2% 4.5% -16.4% -38.3%
Telecommunications 73.0 -1.0% 2.4% 5.2% -2.7% 7.5%
Utility 120.6 0.8% 3.2% 4.8% -26.4% -6.9%

14
Performance SMI-members since 1.1.2011 Performance Euro Stoxx 50-members since 1.1.2011
10.7 SYNGENTA AG-REG 24.6 AXA SA

10.0 UBS AG-REG 23.3 ING GROEP NV-CVA

23.1 ENEL SPA


9.6 TRANSOCEAN LTD
22.9 CREDIT AGRICOLE SA
8.3 SWISS REINSURANCE CO LTD-REG
20.7 ALSTOM
8.1 SGS SA-REG
16.9 COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN
5.9 ZURICH FINANCIAL SERVICES AG
16.1 ALLIANZ SE-REG
5.6 HOLCIM LTD-REG
15.0 SAP AG
5.1 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG-REG
14.6 SOCIETE GENERALE

4.1 ABB LTD-REG 14.3 DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG-REG

3.2 SYNTHES INC-144A/REGS 13.4 BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTA

1.9 ACTELION LTD-REG 13.4 REPSOL YPF SA

-0.9 SWISSCOM AG-REG 11.8 UNICREDIT SPA

11.3 BNP PARIBAS


-2.3 NESTLE SA-REG
11.2 ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI
-3.6 ROCHE HOLDING AG-GENUSSCHEIN
10.3 TELECOM ITALIA SPA
-4.2 ADECCO SA-REG
9.8 INTESA SANPAOLO
-5.2 SWATCH GROUP AG/THE-BR
7.4 IBERDROLA SA
-5.7 LONZA GROUP AG-REG
7.3 DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED
-6.4 CIE FINANCIERE RICHEMON-BR A 6.9 SANOFI-AVENTIS

-8.2 JULIUS BAER GROUP LTD 5.9 BANCO SANTANDER SA

-9.2 NOVARTIS AG-REG 5.7 VINCI SA

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 5.5 TELEFONICA SA

5.4 TOTAL SA

5.4 ENI SPA


Performance Dow Jones-members since 1.1.2011
5.4 BASF SE
16.8 PFIZER INC
4.8 CRH PLC
14.9 CATERPILLAR INC
4.6 DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
13.8 CHEVRON CORP

13.7 EXXON MOBIL CORP 2.9 UNIBAIL-RODAMCO SE

11.7 IBM 1.9 MUENCHENER RUECKVER AG-REG

11.2 WALT DISNEY CO 1.4 DANONE


10.5 BOEING CO/THE 1.1 GDF SUEZ
9.0 JPMORGAN CHASE 1.1 VIVENDI
9.0 GENERAL ELECTRIC
1.0 CARREFOUR SA
7.9 DU PONT (EI)
0.7 SIEMENS AG-REG
7.6 3M CO
0.4 FRANCE TELECOM SA
7.6 TRAVELERS COS IN

7.5 ALCOA INC -0.2 AIR LIQUIDE SA

7.4 HOME DEPOT INC -0.2 BAYER AG-REG

7.4 AMERICAN EXPRESS -0.4 SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SA


7.0 UNITED TECH CORP -1.1 L'OREAL
5.3 VERIZON COMMUNIC
-1.5 DAIMLER AG-REGISTERED SHARES
2.8 KRAFT FOODS INC
-1.8 BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
2.7 AT&T INC
-1.9 E.ON AG
2.3 COCA-COLA CO/THE
-3.0 ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV NV
0.2 MCDONALDS CORP

-0.5 BANK OF AMERICA -3.2 UNILEVER NV-CVA

-0.6 WAL-MART STORES -6.2 RWE AG

-2.1 PROCTER & GAMBLE -7.2 KONINKLIJKE PHILIPS ELECTRON


-2.3 HEWLETT-PACKARD
-8.9 ARCELORMITTAL
-3.6 JOHNSON&JOHNSON
-9.7 LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI
-5.9 INTEL CORP
-22.5 NOKIA OYJ
-7.1 MERCK & CO
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
-8.2 MICROSOFT CORP

-14.7 CISCO SYSTEMS

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

15
Markets and Forecasts at a Glance

Equity Indices
12mth fwd 12mth Earnings Dividend
31.12.10 13.04.11 YTD Risk Premium 3mth* 12mth*
P/E Growth Yield
S&P 500 1258 1314 4.5% 13.1 14.6% 2.2% 4.2% ≈ ↓
DJ Euro Stoxx 50 2793 2928 4.9% 9.5 11.8% 4.4% 7.1% ↑ ↑
FTSE 100 5900 5975 1.3% 10.3 16.8% 3.4% 6.1% ↓ ≈
SMI 6436 6380 -0.9% 11.6 9.8% 3.0% 6.5% ↓ ↓
Topix** 899 847 -5.8% 12.6 11.0% 2.1% 6.7% ≈ ≈
MSCI EM USD 1151 1185 2.9% 11.1 15.7% 2.3% 2.7% ↑ ↑
Sources: Clariden Leu, Datastream, Bloomberg, IBES * relative to MSCI World / ** one day after

Equity Outlook relative to MSCI World Fixed Income Outlook relative to Cash
Regions 3mth 12mth Sectors 3mth 12mth 3mth 12mth
North America = - Energy + + Government CHF = -
UK - = Materials + + EUR = -
Europe ex UK ex CH + + Industrials = + USD = -
Switzerland - - Cons. Discretionary - - Investment Grade + +
Japan = = Consumer Staples - + Emerging Market Bonds = +
EMMA Asia + + Health Care = - High Yield Bonds +(++) +
EMMA Latin America + + Financials + = Convertible Bonds =(+) +
EMMA Eastern Europe = + Inf. Technology - +
Rating: ++ highly favorable + favorable = neutral – unfavorable
Telecom + -
-- Highly unfavorable
Utilities = - Source: Clariden Leu

Interest Rates
Central Bank Interest Rates (Last forecast change as of 06.04.11) Yield in %
4.0
31.12.10 (%) 14.04.11 (%) YTD (Bp) 12mth LIBOR
USA 0.25 0.25 0 0.50% ↑
Eurozone 1.00 1.25 25 1.75% ↑ 3.0

UK 0.50 0.50 0 1.25% ↑


Switzerland 0.25 0.25 0 0.75% ↑ 2.0
Japan 0.10 0.10 0 0.10% ≈
10-Year Treasury Yields (Last forecast change as of 13.04.11)
1.0
31.12.10 (%) 14.04.11 (%) YTD (Bp) 12mth
USA 3.29 3.46 16 3.75% ↑
0
Eurozone 2.96 3.42 45 3.50% ↑ 0 2 4 6 8 10
UK 3.40 3.68 28 4.00% ↑ Time to maturity (Years)
Switzerland 1.72 2.11 39 2.25% ↑ USD EUR GBP CHF JPY
Japan 1.13 1.29 16 1.50% ↑ Source: Bloomberg

Exchange Rates Risk Appetite Indicator


Bloomberg
Current CL
Consensus
Spot Forecasts as of 15.03.11
Forecasts
(14.04.11) 3mth 12mth 3mth 12mth
Risk seeking
Risk seeking

USD CHF 0.89 0.93 0.97 0.9 - 0.94 0.98 - 1.02


USD JPY 83 85 88 82 - 86 90 - 94
EUR USD 1.45 1.40 1.37 1.37 - 1.41 1.34 - 1.38
EUR CHF 1.29 1.30 1.33 1.26 - 1.3 1.34 - 1.38
Risk averse

Risk averse

EUR JPY 120 119 121 115 - 119 123 - 127


GBP CHF 1.46 1.50 1.58 1.45 - 1.49 1.6 - 1.64
GBP USD 1.63 1.61 1.63 1.58 - 1.62 1.6 - 1.64

Commodities
31.12.10 14.04.11 YTD 3mth 12mth
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Gold per oz 1418.75 1461.2 3% = ↑
Source: Datastream, Clariden Leu
Oil (WTI) per barrel 91.38 107.11 17% = ↑ ↑ positive outlook ≈ neutral outlook ↓ negative outlook

Clariden Leu Ltd.


Bahnhofstrasse 32, CH-8070 Zurich
Tel. +41 58 205 75 75
Please see disclaimer on page 2. Fax +41 58 205 37 88 16
Company Note
14.04.2011

ALCOA Rating relative to regional sector Outperform

Price (in USD) 16.55 Investment case:


Price Target (12–18 months) 20.00 • Aluminium is very strong relative to its weight, corrosion
resistant and a very good electricity conductor. Gains in
Potential 20.8%
market share in the transportation and energy sectors.
• Excess production of Alumina will in the future be sold at
Sector Materials more flexible, historically often higher market prices.
Region North America Renegotiations of contracts to be completed by 2015.

Country USA
• Opportunities: Economic recovery, increasing alumina
sales prices, completed cost reductions, energy mix
mainly consists of renewable energies.
Model Portfolio Yes • Risks: Global excess capacity and high aluminium inven-
Valor/Bloomberg/Reuters 986'052/aa us /AA.N tories, economic risks (e.g. downturn in China), compos-
ites replacing aluminium (e.g. in aircraft construction).
Risk Class Dynamic
• Conclusion: Attractive medium-term upside potential.
AL CO A 14 .0 4.2 0 11
Aluminium price increases surpass cost inflation 50 50

Last Event: Q1 earnings of USD 308 m were rather better than 45 45


expected, though the 22% rise in sales fell somewhat short of
predictions. The forecast of 12% growth in global aluminium 40 40
demand for 2011 was confirmed. However, Alcoa has warned of
rising costs, notably for natural gas and diesel. 35 35

Comment: A number of aluminium smelters have restarted their 30 30


operations in China after energy-saving measures have expired,
which has aggravated overcapacity in the sector again. However, 25 25

production costs in China are much higher than Alcoa's. Alumin-


ium stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are equivalent 20 20

to 41 days of global demand, which is still high (LT average is 15


days). Since these inventories are often financed by loans, rising 15 15

interest rates may trigger their sale. Despite this risk, though,
10 10
the aluminum price has so far risen much faster than Alcoa's
production costs. As with other metals shares, the short-term 5 5
risks for Alcoa are high (energy prices, slowdown in China). In the 2 006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ALC OA
medium term, however, the stock offers substantial upside. H OCH 46 .4 5 18 .0 7. 20 07 ,TIEF 5 .4 8 1 8 .03 .2 00 9 ,SCHL USS So
16 .5
ur5ce:
1 3Th
.04omso
.2 01 n
1 Dat ast rea m

Per Share Data 2010 2011E 2012E Description


EPS in USD 0.2 1.3 1.7 Alcoa is one of the world's biggest aluminium producers with activities in
P/E Ratio 69.0 12.4 9.9 all segments of the industry (bauxite mining, alumina refin ing, aluminium
electrolysis, component manufacturing, recycling etc.). Excess produc-
Dividend Yield 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%
tion of the intermediate product alumina is sold to third parties. Alcoa
Income Statement 2011E 2012E
also owns and operates electric power stations, which generate ap-
in mio. USD 2010
proximately 23% of the electricity used in its aluminium smelters.
Revenues 21'013 24'509 25'610
Net Income 254 1'495 1'568 Christian Fröhlich

Performance 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year


Clariden Leu AG Tel. +41 58 205 37 32
Absolute 3.2 5.3 16.5 Claridenstrasse 19, CH-8070 Zürich E-Mail: christian.froehlich@claridenleu.com

Please see disclaimer on page 2. Page 1/2

17
ALCOA INC

Financials & Valuation*

Profit & Loss 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Earnings Per Share
USD mn 3.5
Sales 26'901 18'439 21'013 24'509 25'610 3.0
EBITDA 3'313 359 2'705 4'420 4'715 2.5
Operating profit 2'079 -952 1'254 3'044 3'633 2.0
1.5
Margin 8% -5% 6% 12% 14%
1.0
Net profit -74 -1'151 254 1'512 1'618
0.5
0.0
Balance Sheet 2008 2009 2010 -0.5
USD mn -1.0
Total Assets 37'822 38'472 39'293 -1.5

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Total Liabilities 23'490 22'952 22'207
Total Shareholders' Equity 14'332 15'520 17'086
Net debt 9'816 8'378 7'622
Net debt/Equity 0.7 0.5 0.4
P/E Ratio

35
Per Share Data 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
30
USD
EPS 1.0 -0.9 0.5 1.4 1.6 25
Dividend 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 20
Book Value 14.6 12.7 13.3 14.1 15.7 15
10
Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
P/E 12.1 n.m. 28.5 11.9 10.6 5
P/Book 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
P/Sales 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
EV/EBITDA 6.5 75.9 9.9 6.4 5.7
EV/Sales 0.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0
Dividend yield 6.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9%
Operating Margin (%)

16
Profitability 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 14
ROE -1% -10% 2% 10% 10%
12
ROA 0% -3% 1% 5% 5%
10
8
Coverage Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
6
Net debt/EBITDA 3.0 23.3 2.8 1.6 1.2
Div payout 244% n.m. 47% 9% 9% 4
2
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Issuer Information
Market Cap. (m) 17'588
Fiscal year end 12/2010
ISIN Number US0138171014 Event Calendar
Last price USD 16.6 14.04.2011 July 11, 2011 Quarterly results
52 week high USD 18.5 08.04.2011 May 4, 2011 Dividend ex date
52 week low USD 9.8 01.07.2010

Geographic Sales Split 2008 2009 2010 Product Sales Split 2008 2009 2010
U.S. 14'335 9'546 10'560 50% Aluminium 8'021 5'252 7'070 34%
Australia 3'228 2'287 2'842 14% Flat-rolled aluminium products 8'966 6'069 6'277 30%
Spain 1'733 1'099 1'234 6% Aluminium components 6'199 4'689 4'584 22%
Brazil 1'287 897 1'182 6% Alumina 2'924 2'161 2'815 13%
Netherlands 1'263 1'002 940 4% Adjustment 791 268 267 1%
Norway 24 477 809 4%
Other 3'023 1'122 1'436 16%

*) Data is directly imported from Bloomberg and may deviate from adjusted figures on the 1st page.
The information and opinions expressed in this document were produced by the Investment Research department of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. The report is published solely for
information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Clariden Leu Ltd. to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction . It
has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based up on sources that Clariden Leu Ltd. believes to be reliable, no
representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Clariden Leu Ltd. does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of thi s report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue
may fluctua e and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise
constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any
products mentioned in this document. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks, currency risks,
and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transact ion to individual circumstances and objectives. Cl ar iden Leu Ltd. recommends that investors independently assess, with a
professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal , regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Clariden Leu Ltd. may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with
the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such i ssuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be
sent , taken into or distributed in the United Stat es or in Japan or to any US Person. Local law or regulation may restrict the distribution of research reports into certain jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced either in whole or in
part, without the written permisson of Cl ariden Leu Ltd. © Clariden Leu Ltd. All rights reserved.

18
Company Note
13.04.2011

GIVAUDAN Rating relative to regional sector Marketperform

Price (in CHF) 933.00 Investment Case:


Price Target (12–18 months) 1'000.00 • Givaudan is the world's leading manufacturer of fra-
grances and flavours. It has a high exposure to emerging
Potential 7.2%
markets (41% of sales).
• Sales are closely linked to demand for consumer goods
Sector Materials such as toiletries and food. This makes the company
Region Switzerland more defensive than most other chemicals companies.

Country Switzerland
• Company aims to raise cash return to shareholders after
reducing its leverage ratio from the current 29% to
25%. This likely means higher dividends from 2012 on-
Model Portfolio No wards.
Valor/Bloomberg/Reuters 1'064'593/givn vx /GIVN.VX • Target price still assumes a premium both to its direct
competitor IFF and to other Swiss chemical stocks.
Risk Class Moderate

GI VAUDAN N 13.0 4.20 11


Still some headwinds in 2011 1200 1200

Last Event: Givaudan reported sales down by 5% in the first


quarter of 2011. Excluding foreign exchange effects, sales grew 1100 1100

by 3%. After highlighting a sharp rise in the cost of raw materials


earlier this year, the company said that it has managed to nego- 1000 1000
tiate price increases with most of its customers. The full impact
of that should be visible in the second half of 2011.
900 900
Comment: Results were modestly below expectations. The
revenue growth rate in 2011 is likely to be below Givaudan's
800 800
long term target of around 5% . This is in large part due to a
difficult comparison with 2010 (local currency growth of 9%).
700 700
The company's ability to pass on price increases to customers is
encouraging. However, at this stage it is difficult to quantify the
overall impact on operating margins in 2011. The ongoing 600 600

strength of the Swiss franc is another factor that leads us to


maintain a Marketperform rating.
500 500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GIVAUDAN 'N'
HOCH 1 168 .25 1 9.0 6.20 07,TIEF 5 57.6 6 31 .03 .200 9,SCHLUSS
Sour 925.
ce: Th
00omso n Datast ream

Per Share Data 2010 2011E 2012E Description


EPS in CHF 59.5 57.4 65.2 Givaudan is one of the leading flavours & fragrances producers world-
P/E Ratio 15.7 16.2 14.3 wide. Fragrances account for 46% and Flavours for 54% of revenues.
The company divides its markets into Mature Markets (North America,
Dividend Yield 2.8% 2.8% 3.2%
Western Europe and Japan), which account for 59% of revenues and
Developing Markets (41% of revenues).
Income Statement in mio. CHF 2010 2011E 2012E
Revenues 4'225 4'225 4'423
Net Income 486 500 583 Luis Correia, PhD

Performance 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year


Clariden Leu AG Tel. +41 58 205 67 31
Absolute 3.0 -5.3 -3.4 Claridenstrasse 19, CH-8070 Zürich E-Mail: luis.correia@claridenleu.com

Please see disclaimer on page 2. Page 1/2

19
GIVAUDAN-REG

Financials & Valuation*

Profit & Loss 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Earnings Per Share
CHF mn 80.0
Sales 4'087 3'959 4'239 4'225 4'423 70.0
EBITDA 822 758 866 933 1'010 60.0
Operating profit 467 463 557 655 772
50.0
Margin 11% 12% 13% 16% 17%
40.0
Net profit 111 199 340 500 583
30.0

Balance Sheet 2008 2009 2010 20.0


CHF mn 10.0
Total Assets 6'997 7'213 6'923 0.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Total Liabilities 4'904 4'401 3'477
Total Shareholders' Equity 2'093 2'812 3'446
Net debt 3'091 2'230 1'299
Net debt/Equity 147.7% 79.3% 37.7%
P/E Ratio

90
Per Share Data 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 80
CHF 70
EPS 29.1 40.5 62.4 57.3 65.0 60
Dividend 9.4 20.6 21.5 26.0 30.3 50
Book Value 277.2 336.4 378.9 396.5 408.0 40
30
Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 20
P/E 53.2 33.0 26.6 16.3 14.4 10
P/Book 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.4 2.3 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
P/Sales 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.9
EV/EBITDA 11.0 12.0 12.1 10.4 9.4
EV/Sales 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.1
Dividend yield 1.2% 2.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2%
Operating Margin (%)

20
Profitability 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 18
ROE 5% 8% 11% 14% 16% 16
ROA 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 14
12
10
Coverage Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
8
Net debt/EBITDA 3.8 2.9 1.5 1.2 0.8 6
Div payout 65% 88% 58% 45% 47% 4
2
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Issuer Information
Market Cap. (m) 8'624
Fiscal year end 12/2010
ISIN Number CH0010645932 Event Calendar
Last price CHF 934.0 13.04.2011 04.08.2011 Semi annual result
52 week high CHF 1037.1 08.12.2010 29.03.2012 Dividend ex date
52 week low CHF 841.3 25.05.2010

Geographic Sales Split 2008 2009 2010 Product Sales Split 2008 2009 2010
Rest of Europe 1'449 1'311 1'313 31% Flavours 2'189 2'135 2'251 53%
Asia Pacific 864 916 1'046 25% Fragrances 1'898 1'824 1'988 47%
USA and Canada 1'003 944 999 24%
Latin America 453 459 515 12%
Africa, Middle East 270 279 315 7%
Switzerland 48 50 51 1%

*) Data is directly imported from Bloomberg and may deviate from adjusted figures on the 1st page.
The information and opinions expressed in this document were produced by the Investment Research department of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. The report is published solely for
information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Clariden Leu Ltd. to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction . It
has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based up on sources that Clariden Leu Ltd. believes to be reliable, no
representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Clariden Leu Ltd. does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of thi s report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue
may fluctua e and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise
constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any
products mentioned in this document. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks, currency risks,
and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transact ion to individual circumstances and objectives. Cl ar iden Leu Ltd. recommends that investors independently assess, with a
professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal , regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Clariden Leu Ltd. may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with
the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such i ssuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be
sent , taken into or distributed in the United Stat es or in Japan or to any US Person. Local law or regulation may restrict the distribution of research reports into certain jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced either in whole or in
part, without the written permisson of Cl ariden Leu Ltd. © Clariden Leu Ltd. All rights reserved.

20
Company Note
14.04.2011

RIO TINTO Rating relative to regional sector Outperform

Price (in GBp) 4'325.00 Investment case:


Price Target (12–18 months) 4'900.00 • Owner of first-class mines/alu smelters with a low cost
profile and long-lasting reserves in politically stable re-
Potential 13.3%
gions such as Australia, North America and Europe.
• High raw material prices, margins and government defi-
Sector Materials cits increase the risk of extraordinary taxes. However,
Region Europe Australia's new resource tax has been watered down.

Country United Kingdom


• Opportunities: High quality mines, capacity reductions in
the aluminium sector promise turnaround.
• Risks: Cyclical weakening of China's strong demand for
Model Portfolio Yes metals (construction, capital goods); growth plans of
Valor/Bloomberg/Reuters 402'589/rio ln /RIO.L many competitors will reduce margins in the long term.

Risk Class Dynamic


• Conclusion: Valuation has clearly increased. However,
strong ST earnings momentum offers further upside.
RIO TI NT O 14 .0 4.2 0 11
Production hit by floods 6000 6000

Last Event: Iron ore output at Rio Tinto dropped by 3% to 42 5500 5500

million tonnes in Q1. The decline from Q4 2010 came to a sub-


5000 5000
stantial 16%. This was due to the consequences of various cy-
clones and the disastrous floods in Australia. The extreme 4500 4500

weather conditions also impacted on Australian coke output


4000 4000
(-12%) and on aluminum oxide production (-4%). Copper output
was also down (-14%), but this was due to a decline in ore 3500 3500

grades at the Escondida and Grasberg mines.


3000 3000

Comment: Production fell far short of predictions, but is cur-


2500 2500
rently moving back toward normal levels. The decrease in copper
output is more structural. However, the huge Oyu-Tolgoi copper 2000 2000

and gold mine in Mongolia, in which Rio Tinto holds an indirect


1500 1500
28% stake through Ivanhoe, will turn the trend around at the end
of 2012. High cost inflation and a tighter monetary policy in 1000 1000

China suggest that the current margins are not sustainable in the 500 500
medium term. Thanks to its low production costs, however, Rio is 2 006 2007 2008 2009 2010

RIO TIN TO
more resilient to bad news than other mining companies. H OCH 56 8 4.4 3 14 .0 5. 20 0 8,TIEF 9 48 .3 7 03 .1 2. 20 08 ,SCH LU SS 44 3Th
2.3omso
9
So ur ce: n Dat ast rea m

Per Share Data 2010 2011E 2012E Description


EPS in GBp 470.3 596.0 602.0 Rio Tinto is the second-largest iron ore producer (after Vale but before
P/E Ratio 9.2 7.3 7.2 BHP) and one of the biggest players in the aluminium sector alongside
Alcoa, RUSAL and Chalco. The company also has mining interests in coal,
Dividend Yield 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%
copper and other raw materials. Rio has two parent companies (Rio
Income Statement 2011E 2012E
Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited) that participate in a fixed proportion in
in mio. USD 2010
all operating activities and are headed by the same management team.
Revenues 56'576 66'140 66'690
Net Income 14'324 19'137 18'629 Christian Fröhlich

Performance 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year


Clariden Leu AG Tel. +41 58 205 37 32
Absolute 11.2 -1.2 15.7 Claridenstrasse 19, CH-8070 Zürich E-Mail: christian.froehlich@claridenleu.com

Please see disclaimer on page 2. Page 1/2

21
RIO TINTO PLC

Financials & Valuation*

Profit & Loss 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Earnings Per Share
USD mn 700.0
Sales 54'264 41'825 56'576 66'140 66'690
600.0
EBITDA 18'964 10'920 22'748 32'785 32'648
500.0
Operating profit 15'489 7'493 19'311 29'169 27'975
Margin 29% 18% 34% 44% 42% 400.0
Net profit 3'676 4'872 14'324 19'191 18'879 300.0
200.0
Balance Sheet 2008 2009 2010
USD mn 100.0
Total Assets 89'616 97'236 112'402 0.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Total Liabilities 67'155 51'311 47'128
Total Shareholders' Equity 22'461 45'925 65'274
Net debt 38'607 18'309 3'872
Net debt/Equity 1.7 0.4 0.1
P/E Ratio

45
Per Share Data 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 40
GBp 35
EPS 361.9 207.5 461.9 609.4 603.6 30
Dividend 61.3 28.8 69.9 73.3 78.1 25
Book Value 911.1 1384.6 1910.9 2365.4 2839.1 20
15
Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 10
P/E 6.2 18.1 9.5 7.1 7.2 5
P/Book 1.4 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.5 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
P/Sales 0.5 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2
EV/EBITDA 3.6 11.7 6.5 4.6 4.3
EV/Sales 1.3 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.1
Dividend yield 6.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8%
Operating Margin (%)

50
Profitability 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 45
ROE 16% 15% 28% 29% 24% 40
ROA 4% 5% 14% 22% 19% 35
30
25
Coverage Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
20
Net debt/EBITDA 2.0 1.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 15
Div payout 39% 17% 15% 12% 13% 10
5
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Issuer Information
Market Cap. (m) 89'225
Fiscal year end 12/2010
ISIN Number GB0007188757 Event Calendar
Last price GBp 4327.0 14.04.2011 August 4, 2011 Quarterly results
52 week high GBp 4717.5 09.02.2011 August 10, 2011 Dividend ex date
52 week low GBp 2751.0 20.05.2010

Geographic Sales Split 2008 2009 2010 Product Sales Split 2008 2009 2010
China 10'934 10'691 16'743 30% Iron ore 16'527 12'598 24'024 42%
North America 12'984 10'190 11'187 20% Aluminium 18'297 12'038 15'206 27%
Japan 8'825 5'921 9'410 17% Copper 5'748 6'206 7'782 14%
Europe 12'015 6'337 8'682 15% Other 7'378 4'743 5'734 10%
Rest of the world 13'307 10'897 14'301 25% Energy 8'018 6'709 5'652 10%
Adjustments -3'801 -2'211 -3'747 -7% Diamonds, minerals 3'820 2'618 3'035 5%
Consolidation, minorities -5'524 -3'087 -4'857 -9%

*) Data is directly imported from Bloomberg and may deviate from adjusted figures on the 1st page.
The information and opinions expressed in this document were produced by the Investment Research department of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. The report is published solely for
information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Clariden Leu Ltd. to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction . It
has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based up on sources that Clariden Leu Ltd. believes to be reliable, no
representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Clariden Leu Ltd. does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of thi s report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue
may fluctua e and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise
constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any
products mentioned in this document. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks, currency risks,
and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transact ion to individual circumstances and objectives. Cl ar iden Leu Ltd. recommends that investors independently assess, with a
professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal , regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Clariden Leu Ltd. may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with
the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such i ssuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be
sent , taken into or distributed in the United Stat es or in Japan or to any US Person. Local law or regulation may restrict the distribution of research reports into certain jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced either in whole or in
part, without the written permisson of Cl ariden Leu Ltd. © Clariden Leu Ltd. All rights reserved.

22
Company Note
13.04.2011

SANOFI-AVENTIS Rating relative to regional sector New: Marketperform

Price (in EUR) 51.19 Investment Case:


Price Target (12–18 months) 55.00 • The acquisition of Genzyme is another step to diversify
away from prescription drugs addressed to large popu-
Potential 7.4%
lations in Western markets.Following several acquisitions
in recent years, Sanofi has now a high exposure to
Sector Pharma & Biotech emerging markets (30% of sales). The company also has
significant Vaccines and Animal Health businesses.
Region Europe
• Sanofi's efforts to replace its mature oncology portfolio
Country France have had little success. The company suffers from a
perception of low Research & Development productiv-
ity.
Model Portfolio No
• Share could have downside support from a low valuation
Valor/Bloomberg/Reuters 699'381/san fp /SASY.PA relative to sector average as well as a high dividend
Risk Class Moderate yield.

AVENTI S 13.0 4.20 11


Resuming coverage with Marketperform 80 80

Last Event: Sanofi-aventis announced that the acquisition of


75 75
U.S. biotechnology company Genzyme is now complete. The
integration of Genzyme adds around EUR 3bn annual sales and
70 70
EUR 500mn net income. In addition to drugs for rare diseases
(enzyme deficiencies), Genzyme has a drug candidate in ad-
65 65
vanced development for multiple sclerosis.
Comment: The acquisition of Genzyme helps Sanofi-aventis to 60 60
make up for some profits lost to patent expiries in the period
2011-13. Sentiment towards Sanofi has been cautious given the 55 55
company's mixed track record in the development and launch of
new drugs. The absence of promising new launches in the next 50 50
three years mainly justifies that we resume coverage with a
Marketperform. The price target assumes that Sanofi's valuation 45 45
gap relative to peers could close somewhat.
40 40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SANOFI- AVE NTIS
HOCH 7 8.60 25. 07.2 006 ,TIEF 40.8 2 1 4.04 .200 9,SCHLUSSSour
51.1ce:
9 12Th.04
omso
.201n1Datast ream

Per Share Data 2010 2011E 2012E Description


EPS in EUR 7.0 6.7 6.2 French company Sanofi-aventis is one of the major pharmaceutical
P/E Ratio 7.4 7.6 8.2 companies worldwide. Its main areas are diabetes, cardiovascular dis-
eases, oncology, vaccines and animal health. The company generates
Dividend Yield 5.0% 5.0% 5.1%
around 30% of its sales in emerging markets.
Income Statement in mio. EUR 2010 2011E 2012E
Revenues 29'306 30'768 31'363
Net Income 9'131 8'733 8'031 Luis Correia, PhD

Performance 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year


Clariden Leu AG Tel. +41 58 205 67 31
Absolute 3.6 -0.1 -2.7 Claridenstrasse 19, CH-8070 Zürich E-Mail: luis.correia@claridenleu.com

Please see disclaimer on page 2. Page 1/2

23
SANOFI-AVENTIS

Financials & Valuation*

Profit & Loss 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Earnings Per Share
EUR mn 8.0
Sales 27'568 29'306 30'384 30'742 31'601
6.0
EBITDA 10'833 12'805 12'570 12'625 12'211
4.0
Operating profit 6'457 7'818 7'904 9'914 9'331
Margin 23% 27% 26% 32% 30% 2.0
Net profit 7'068 8'826 9'215 8'758 8'061 0.0
-2.0
Balance Sheet 2008 2009 2010
EUR mn -4.0
Total Assets 71'987 80'049 85'264 -6.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Total Liabilities 26'916 31'603 31'976
Total Shareholders' Equity 45'071 48'446 53'288
Net debt 1'780 4'135 1'795
Net debt/Equity 3.9% 8.5% 3.4%
P/E Ratio

60
Per Share Data 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
50
EUR
EPS 5.4 6.8 7.1 6.8 6.2 40
Dividend 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6
30
Book Value 34.4 36.8 40.7 41.4 43.4
20
Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
10
P/E 15.4 14.1 12.3 7.6 8.3
P/Book 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
P/Sales 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.1
EV/EBITDA 5.7 6.0 5.1 5.5 5.6
EV/Sales 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.2
Dividend yield 4.8% 4.4% 5.2% 5.0% 5.1%
Operating Margin (%)

40
Profitability 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 35
ROE 9% 11% 11% 15% 14%
30
ROA 5% 7% 7% 9% 9%
25
20
Coverage Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
15
Net debt/EBITDA 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Div payout 75% 62% 65% 38% 42% 10
5
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Issuer Information
Market Cap. (m) 67'465
Fiscal year end 12/2010
ISIN Number FR0000120578 Event Calendar
Last price EUR 51.5 13.04.2011 28.04.2011 Quarterly result
52 week high EUR 55.4 14.04.2010 16.05.2011 Dividend ex date
52 week low EUR 44.0 30.07.2010

Geographic Sales Split 2008 2009 2010 Product Sales Split 2008 2009 2010
Emerging Markets 9'075 30% Pharmaceuticals 24'707 25'823 26'576 87%
Europe 12'096 12'059 8'997 30% Vaccines 2'861 3'483 3'808 13%
United States 8'609 9'426 8'968 29%
Rest of the World 6'863 7'821 3'344 11%

*) Data is directly imported from Bloomberg and may deviate from adjusted figures on the 1st page.
The information and opinions expressed in this document were produced by the Investment Research department of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. The report is published solely for
information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Clariden Leu Ltd. to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction . It
has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based up on sources that Clariden Leu Ltd. believes to be reliable, no
representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Clariden Leu Ltd. does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of thi s report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue
may fluctua e and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise
constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any
products mentioned in this document. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks, currency risks,
and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transact ion to individual circumstances and objectives. Cl ar iden Leu Ltd. recommends that investors independently assess, with a
professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal , regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Clariden Leu Ltd. may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with
the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such i ssuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be
sent , taken into or distributed in the United Stat es or in Japan or to any US Person. Local law or regulation may restrict the distribution of research reports into certain jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced either in whole or in
part, without the written permisson of Cl ariden Leu Ltd. © Clariden Leu Ltd. All rights reserved.

24
Company Note
12.04.2011

SULZER Rating relative to regional sector Outperform

Price (in CHF) 146.60 Investment Case:


Price Target (12–18 months) 165.00 • The positive trend in early-cycle markets is continuing.
Sulzer sees encouraging signs in the late cyclical Oil&Gas
Potential 12.6%
market.
• Technological leadership ensures sustainable leading po-
Sector Capital Goods sition in developing future oil and gas fields.
Region Switzerland • About 40% of sales revenue in the Pumps division are
Country Switzerland
generated by servicing work.
• The CHF 110 m cost-cutting program is ahead of
schedule; the full impact of the savings will be felt in the
Model Portfolio No current year.
Valor/Bloomberg/Reuters 3'838'891/sun sw /SUN.S • Trough the acquisition of Cardo Flow Sulzer increases
Risk Class Dynamic
the presence in the very attractive Water market.

SUL Z ER R 12 .0 4.2 0 11
Complementary acquisition in the pump segment 200 200

Last Event: Sulzer plans to take over the wastewater pump arm
180 180
of Swedish Cardo Flow Solutions for CHF 858 m. CF Solutions is
a full-service provider of pumps and related equipment chiefly
160 160
for the wastewater sector. The company posted sales of CHF
463 m in 2010.
140 140
Outlook: The planned takeover will mark Sulzer’s active entry
into the attractive wastewater pump market, giving it a strong 120 120
foothold there. The wastewater pump business is less cyclical
than pump activities in the oil and gas markets, which is why 100 100
economic cycles are likely to be better navigated. The takeover
should have a positive impact on earnings per share as of 2012. 80 80
It is to be financed by disposable liquid funds and borrowed
capital. The takeover makes sense since it rounds out Sulzer’s 60 60
range of pump products and Cardo Flow can benefit from Sul-
zer’s strong global service network. Sulzer will strengthen its 40 40
growth profile through the acquisition. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2 010

SULZE R 'R'
H OCH 18 5 .90 1 2. 11 .2 00 7 ,TI EF 43 .0 0 02 .0 3.2 0 09 ,SCH LUSS
So14 6. 60Th1omso
ur ce: 1. 04 .2
n 01
Dat1 ast rea m

Per Share Data 2010 2011E 2012E Description


EPS in CHF 9.0 8.7 10.1 The industrial group has four core divisions: Sulzer Pumps (pumping
P/E Ratio 16.3 16.8 14.6 solutions), Sulzer Metco (surface technology), Sulzer Turbo Services
(repair services for turbines), and Sulzer Chemtech (components).
Dividend Yield 2.0% 2.0% 2.3%

Income Statement in mio. CHF 2010 2011E 2012E


Revenues 3'184 3'499 3'909
Net Income 300 297 338 Markus Bächtold, CFA

Performance 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year


Clariden Leu AG Tel. +41 58 205 37 73
Absolute 6.2 5.7 44.5 Claridenstrasse 19, CH-8070 Zürich E-Mail: markus.baechtold@claridenleu.com

Please see disclaimer on page 2. Page 1/2

25
SULZER AG-REG

Financials & Valuation*

Profit & Loss 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Earnings Per Share
CHF mn 12.0
Sales 3'714 3'350 3'184 3'499 3'909
10.0
EBITDA 575 471 508 526 604
Operating profit 475 360 403 423 484 8.0
Margin 13% 11% 13% 12% 12%
6.0
Net profit 323 270 300 297 338
4.0
Balance Sheet 2008 2009 2010
2.0
CHF mn
Total Assets 3'430 3'384 3'492 0.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Total Liabilities 1'884 1'595 1'591
Total Shareholders' Equity 1'546 1'789 1'901
Net debt -306 -671 -553
Net debt/Equity -19.8% -37.5% -29.1%
P/E Ratio

30
Per Share Data 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
25
CHF
EPS 9.6 9.1 9.0 8.7 10.1 20
Dividend 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 3.3
15
Book Value 44.9 52.9 56.2 61.5 68.1
10
Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
5
P/E 6.3 10.1 16.0 16.6 14.4
P/Book 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
P/Sales 0.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.3
EV/EBITDA 3.1 4.4 8.4 8.0 6.7
EV/Sales 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.0
Dividend yield 4.7% 3.5% 2.1% 2.0% 2.3%
Operating Margin (%)

14
Profitability 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
12
ROE 21% 16% 16% 15% 15%
ROA 9% 8% 9% 11% 12% 10
8
Coverage Ratios 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 6
Net debt/EBITDA -0.5 -1.4 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5
4
Div payout 30% 35% 34% 33% 33%
2
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
Issuer Information
Market Cap. (m) 4'968
Fiscal year end 12/2010
ISIN Number CH0038388911 Event Calendar
Last price CHF 145.0 12.04.2011 21.07.2011 Semi annual result
52 week high CHF 152.3 08.04.2011 18.04.2011 Dividend ex date
52 week low CHF 88.2 25.05.2010

Geographic Sales Split 2008 2009 2010 Product Sales Split 2008 2009 2010
Europe 1'290 1'047 1'024 32% Sulzer Pumps 1'817 1'857 1'576 50%
North America 997 952 840 26% Sulzer Metco 744 556 624 20%
Asia, Australia 1'026 885 803 25% Sulzer Chemtech 823 632 575 18%
Latin America 247 239 324 10% Sulzer Turbo Service 314 291 399 13%
Africa 154 228 192 6% Consolidation 16 14 10 0%

*) Data is directly imported from Bloomberg and may deviate from adjusted figures on the 1st page.
The information and opinions expressed in this document were produced by the Investment Research department of Clariden Leu Ltd. as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. The report is published solely for
information purposes and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Clariden Leu Ltd. to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction . It
has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Although the information has been obtained from and is based up on sources that Clariden Leu Ltd. believes to be reliable, no
representation is made that the information is accurate or complete. Clariden Leu Ltd. does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of thi s report. The price and value of investments mentioned and any income that might accrue
may fluctua e and may rise or fall. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances, or otherwise
constitutes a personal recommendation to any specific investor. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any
products mentioned in this document. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Risks include but are not necessarily limited to: political risks, currency risks,
and market risks. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transact ion to individual circumstances and objectives. Cl ar iden Leu Ltd. recommends that investors independently assess, with a
professional financial advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal , regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences. Clariden Leu Ltd. may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with
the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such i ssuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof. Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be
sent , taken into or distributed in the United Stat es or in Japan or to any US Person. Local law or regulation may restrict the distribution of research reports into certain jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced either in whole or in
part, without the written permisson of Cl ariden Leu Ltd. © Clariden Leu Ltd. All rights reserved.

26
EQUITIES
14.04.2011 / Investment Research, Tel. +41 58 205 75 75

Company Country Rec. Risk Valor Reuters Bloom- Cur- Price 52 Weeks Performance P/E P/E Div. Market Last
berg rency 13.04.2011 high / low 12 months 2011 2012 Yield Cap CHF Update

EQUITIES EUROPE
Energy 9.5 8.6 561.6
BG GROUP GB OP M 1'007'667 BG.L bg/ ln GBp 1'497.00 1'595.00 966.90 29.66 17.3 15.6 1.0 73.9 02/11
BP PLC GB OP D 844'183 BP.L bp/ ln GBp 464.20 658.20 296.00 -28.05 6.4 6.4 3.9 127.4 02/11
FUGRO NL OP M 2'165'936 FUGRc.AS fur na EUR 62.52 63.68 36.87 19.22 15.7 13.1 2.5 6.3 03/11
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL A NL OP C 1'987'674 RDSa.AS rdsa na EUR 25.28 26.74 19.73 11.57 8.8 7.8 4.6 204.6 02/11
TOTAL FR MP M 524'773 TOTF.PA fp fp EUR 42.05 44.55 35.66 -4.00 7.8 7.4 5.6 127.1 02/11
TRANSOCEAN CH MP A 4'826'551 RIG.N rig us USD 78.36 92.67 41.88 -10.32 14.0 11.7 3.0 22.3 03/11
Materials 10.6 9.3 519.9
BAYER DE MP M 10'367'293 BAYGn.DE bayn gr EUR 55.54 59.17 43.10 9.40 11.9 10.6 2.9 59.3 03/11
BHP BILLITON GB MP D 675'391 BLT.L blt ln GBp 2'540.00 2'653.50 1'678.00 9.47 9.9 8.4 2.3 230.8 02/11
GIVAUDAN CH MP M 1'064'593 GIVN.VX givn vx CHF 928.50 1'037.06 841.27 -2.02 16.3 14.3 2.8 8.6 04/11
HOLCIM CH MP M 1'221'405 HOLN.VX holn vx CHF 73.95 85.00 59.65 -9.17 17.9 14.1 2.1 24.3 03/11
K+S AG DE OP M 337'898 SDFG.DE sdf gr EUR 53.04 58.85 35.55 23.60 14.7 12.3 2.9 13.3 03/11
LONZA GROUP CH OP M 1'384'101 LONN.VX lonn vx CHF 72.45 90.95 65.75 -14.21 12.5 10.7 2.9 3.8 04/11
RIO TINTO GB OP D 402'589 RIO.L rio ln GBp 4'408.50 4'717.50 2'751.00 10.23 7.2 7.3 1.7 131.2 04/11
SYNGENTA CH OP M 1'103'746 SYNN.VX synn vx CHF 305.00 324.30 222.00 9.40 17.4 15.6 2.3 28.7 02/11
THYSSEN KRUPP DE MP M 412'006 TKAG.DE tka gy EUR 29.82 32.32 19.68 12.32 13.9 8.6 2.1 19.9 02/11
Capital Goods 14.0 12.5 220.9
ABB CH OP M 1'222'171 ABBN.VX abbn vx CHF 21.82 23.46 17.87 -5.69 16.4 14.3 2.8 50.4 02/11
ALSTOM FR MP M 2'229'080 ALSO.PA alo fp EUR 43.75 48.94 30.78 -7.95 15.0 12.8 2.6 16.6 01/11
GEBERIT CH MP M 3'017'040 GEBN.VX gebn vx CHF 201.00 219.90 159.10 7.00 18.5 16.7 3.2 8.3 03/11
KABA CH OP M 1'179'595 KABN.S kabn sw CHF 387.00 407.50 270.00 21.67 14.0 13.8 2.4 1.5 03/11
PHILIPS ELECTRONICS NL OP D 1'106'818 PHG.AS phia na EUR 21.43 27.01 20.58 -13.87 11.9 10.4 3.7 27.2 01/11
SCHWEITER CH OP D 1'075'492 swtq.s swtq sw CHF 665.00 780.00 525.00 7.46 17.3 13.3 1.7 1.0 03/11
SIEMENS DE OP M 827'766 SIEGn.DE sie gy EUR 93.74 99.39 67.00 27.44 12.7 11.8 3.3 110.8 03/11
SULZER CH OP D 3'838'891 SUN.S sun sw CHF 143.70 152.30 88.15 37.35 17.1 14.9 1.9 5.1 04/11
Commercial Services 20.1 17.4 13.0
SGS CH OP M 249'745 SGSN.VX sgsn vx CHF 1'657.00 1'680.00 1'310.58 13.48 20.1 17.4 3.1 13.0 01/11
Automobiles 9.2 8.0 184.0
BMW DE MP D 324'410 BMWG.DE bmw gy EUR 57.59 65.49 34.64 63.20 10.0 8.8 3.1 47.9 03/11
DAIMLER DE MP D 945'657 DCXGn.DE dai gr EUR 50.98 59.09 35.30 36.30 9.5 8.1 4.3 69.1 02/11
GEORG FISCHER REG CH OP D 175'230 FIN.S fi/n sw CHF 532.50 578.50 327.75 35.17 13.6 10.9 2.3 2.2 03/11
VOLKSWAGEN PREF. DE OP D 352'781 VOWG_p.D vow3 gy EUR 111.60 139.45 64.02 61.50 8.2 7.1 2.4 64.8 03/11

27
Company Country Rec. Risk Valor Reuters Bloom- Cur- Price 52 Weeks Performance P/E P/E Div. Market Last
berg rency 13.04.2011 high / low 12 months 2011 2012 Yield Cap CHF Update

EQUITIES EUROPE
Consumer Durables 17.8 15.6 133.7
ADIDAS DE OP M 11'730'015 ADSG.DE ads gy EUR 45.49 51.55 38.42 8.88 14.5 12.5 2.1 12.3 03/11
LVMH FR OP M 507'170 LVMH.PA mc fp EUR 111.20 129.05 78.26 23.35 18.3 16.2 2.2 70.7 03/11
RICHEMONT CH MP D 4'503'965 CFR.VX cfr vx CHF 51.15 57.75 35.50 24.19 19.0 16.2 1.3 29.6 01/11
SWATCH GROUP BR CH OP M 1'225'515 UHR.VX uhr vx CHF 393.80 434.80 279.70 19.41 16.7 14.5 1.5 21.1 02/11
Consumer Services 10.6 8.9 1.2
GATEGROUP HOLDING CH OP D 10'018'595 GATE.S gate sw CHF 44.30 53.50 30.50 10.38 10.6 8.9 1.4 1.2 04/11
Media 9.6 8.9 46.2
VIVENDI FR OP M 1'165'915 VIV.PA viv fp EUR 20.58 22.07 16.18 2.33 8.8 8.3 7.0 32.7 03/11
WPP GROUP IE OP M 4'635'625 WPP.L wpp ln GBp 734.00 864.00 603.50 3.76 11.6 10.4 2.8 13.5 03/11
Retailing 13.3 11.4 9.1
KINGFISHER GB OP M 1'626'624 KGF.L kgf ln GBp 263.80 272.90 196.70 10.84 13.3 11.4 2.5 9.1 03/11
Food & Staples Retailing 12.4 11.2 47.7
TESCO GB OP C 408'910 TSCO.L tsco ln GBp 406.00 454.90 364.90 -8.89 12.4 11.2 3.5 47.7 12/10
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 15.6 14.1 439.8
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV BE OP M 1'147'290 ABI.BR abi bb EUR 41.57 46.33 35.06 11.03 15.9 14.0 1.8 86.5 03/11
BARRY CALLEBAUT CH OP M 900'296 BARN.S barn sw CHF 805.50 809.00 628.81 15.25 15.1 13.3 1.9 4.2 04/11
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO GB OP M 909'525 BATS.L bats ln GBp 2'530.00 2'568.50 1'950.00 13.42 13.1 12.0 4.9 73.4 02/11
DANONE FR OP M 487'663 DANO.PA bn fp EUR 46.84 48.50 39.35 2.72 16.0 14.4 2.9 40.1 04/11
DIAGEO GB OP C 837'159 DGE.L dge ln GBp 1'200.00 1'266.00 1'024.00 3.72 15.1 13.8 3.4 43.8 02/11
LINDT & SPRÜNGLI REG CH MP M 1'057'075 LISN.S lisn sw CHF 31'000.00 31'200.00 25'155.00 9.82 26.7 24.2 1.6 6.9 03/11
NESTLE CH OP C 3'886'335 NESN.VX nesn vx CHF 52.55 56.90 48.92 -0.19 16.0 14.6 3.6 184.9 02/11
Household & Personal Products 13.8 12.2 22.2
HENKEL DE OP M 335'910 HNKG_p.DE hen3 gy EUR 43.74 48.59 35.69 6.15 13.8 12.2 1.8 22.2 02/11
Health Care Equipment & Services 18.6 16.9 44.3
FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE DE OP C 520'878 FMEG.DE fme gy EUR 50.00 50.07 37.53 20.31 20.1 18.0 1.3 19.5 02/11
GALENICA AG CH MP M 1'553'646 GALN.S galn sw CHF 561.50 586.00 386.00 36.23 15.1 13.9 1.5 3.7 03/11
SONOVA CH MP D 1'254'978 SOON.VX soon vx CHF 84.90 139.20 81.60 -37.43 19.3 17.4 1.3 5.6 03/11
SYNTHES CH OP M 1'863'105 SYST.VX syst vx CHF 129.90 135.00 109.30 0.85 17.4 16.0 1.2 15.5 02/11
Pharma & Biotech 9.8 9.5 435.3
ACTELION CH MP D 1'053'247 ATLN.VX atln vx CHF 52.00 57.95 39.19 7.67 15.9 13.0 1.2 6.8 04/11
GLAXOSMITHKLINE GB UP M 1'102'657 GSK.L gsk ln GBp 1'246.00 1'324.00 1'088.00 -2.24 10.9 10.1 5.5 93.9 02/11
NOVARTIS CH OP C 1'200'526 NOVN.VX novn vx CHF 49.61 58.35 47.61 -11.76 10.1 10.0 4.4 131.4 04/11
ROCHE GS CH MP C 1'203'204 ROG.VX rog vx CHF 133.10 177.80 124.40 -23.86 9.9 9.0 5.4 116.3 04/11
SANOFI-AVENTIS FR MP M 699'381 SASY.PA san fp EUR 51.43 55.40 44.01 -6.69 7.6 8.2 5.0 86.9 04/11
Banks 9.4 7.8 449.7
BANCO SANTANDER ES MP A 817'651 SAN.EU san sm EUR 8.50 10.88 7.11 -22.29 7.9 6.7 7.0 91.2 02/11
28
Company Country Rec. Risk Valor Reuters Bloom- Cur- Price 52 Weeks Performance P/E P/E Div. Market Last
berg rency 13.04.2011 high / low 12 months 2011 2012 Yield Cap CHF Update

EQUITIES EUROPE
Banks 9.4 7.8 449.7
BARCLAYS GB OP A 1'399'446 BARC.L barc ln GBp 308.85 394.25 253.00 -18.27 9.0 7.0 2.3 54.3 02/11
BNP PARIBAS FR OP D 123'397 BNPP.PA bnp fp EUR 53.47 59.93 40.81 -8.56 7.4 6.5 4.5 81.7 02/11
HSBC HOLDINGS GB MP M 411'161 HSBA.L hsba ln GBp 661.60 739.50 595.20 -5.01 11.5 9.5 4.1 169.9 02/11
JULIUS BÄR CH OP M 10'248'496 BAER.VX baer vx CHF 39.64 44.50 29.57 4.01 14.1 11.9 1.7 8.1 02/11
SOCIETE GENERALE FR OP A 519'928 SOGN.PA gle fp EUR 46.64 52.70 29.71 0.07 7.5 6.2 4.6 44.5 02/11
Diversified Financials 7.7 6.8 159.5
DEUTSCHE BANK DE OP D 829'257 DBKGn.DE dbk gy EUR 42.69 55.25 35.93 -22.71 7.2 6.3 2.4 50.6 02/11
ING NL MP A 1'256'533 ING.AS inga na EUR 9.16 9.50 5.34 15.91 6.4 5.8 0.7 44.5 03/11
UBS CH OP D 2'489'948 UBSN.VX ubsn vx CHF 16.89 19.13 13.94 -9.09 8.9 7.9 0.2 64.4 02/11
Insurance 8.9 8.1 100.5
ALLIANZ DE OP M 322'646 ALVG.DE alv gy EUR 104.40 108.85 75.82 9.78 8.7 7.9 4.7 60.8 03/11
BALOISE CH MP M 1'241'051 BALN.VX baln vx CHF 92.55 103.60 73.40 -2.68 9.4 8.5 5.1 4.6 08/10
ZURICH FIN SERVICES CH OP M 1'107'539 ZURN.VX zurn vx CHF 241.20 257.20 207.45 -0.97 9.4 8.5 6.8 35.1 02/11
Software 16.6 14.8 72.2
SAP DE OP C 345'952 SAPG.DE sap gy EUR 44.05 45.05 33.60 21.09 16.4 14.7 1.6 69.8 01/11
TEMENOS CH OP D 1'245'391 TMNSF.PK temn sw CHF 33.45 39.55 23.40 7.58 21.3 18.3 0.0 2.4 02/11
Technology Hardware 13.8 12.1 37.5
ERICSSON SE OP M 614'663 ERICb.ST ericb ss SEK 80.25 90.45 68.85 0.51 13.8 12.2 3.1 36.6 01/11
KUDELSKI CH OP D 1'226'836 KUD.S kud sw CHF 16.75 34.95 14.80 -51.44 15.1 11.3 1.9 0.9 03/11
Telecommunication 10.8 10.5 374.6
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM DE MP M 1'026'592 DTEGn.DE dte gy EUR 11.09 11.21 8.51 9.28 14.5 13.8 6.4 61.9 03/11
FRANCE TELECOM FR OP M 720'128 FTE.PA fte fp EUR 15.70 17.57 14.01 -10.34 9.2 9.2 9.0 53.7 11/10
SWISSCOM CH OP C 874'251 SCMN.VX scmn vx CHF 407.50 433.50 356.80 2.96 11.0 10.6 5.5 21.1 02/11
TELEFONICA ES OP M 826'858 TEF.EU tef sm EUR 18.00 19.69 14.67 -1.05 9.7 9.3 8.9 105.7 03/11
VODAFONE GB OP M 2'582'928 VOD.L vod ln GBp 176.55 185.00 126.50 16.81 10.6 10.5 5.1 132.2 02/11
Utilities 11.4 10.4 227.7
E.ON DE MP M 4'334'819 EONGn.DE eoan gy EUR 22.51 28.93 20.21 -20.77 11.9 10.7 5.8 58.3 04/11
ENEL IT OP M 1'250'633 ENEI.MI enel im EUR 4.63 4.64 3.42 10.68 9.7 9.3 6.2 56.1 03/11
GDF SUEZ FR OP M 2'200'367 GAZEUR.PA gsz fp EUR 27.38 30.05 22.64 -4.90 13.0 11.6 5.8 79.2 04/11
RWE DE UP M 1'158'883 RWEG.DE rwe gy EUR 47.16 68.12 42.25 -30.54 9.4 9.1 5.9 34.1 04/11

EQUITIES NORTH AMERICA


Energy 9.6 8.9 311.9
BAKER HUGHES US OP D 910'918 BHI.N bhi us USD 68.31 75.10 35.62 38.64 18.1 14.1 0.9 26.5 04/11
CHEVRON US OP M 1'281'709 CVX.N cvx us USD 103.81 109.94 66.83 28.83 8.4 8.2 2.9 186.2 02/11
CONOCO PHILLIPS US OP M 1'330'331 COP.N cop us USD 77.66 81.80 48.06 36.51 9.7 8.7 3.2 99.2 02/11

29
Company Country Rec. Risk Valor Reuters Bloom- Cur- Price 52 Weeks Performance P/E P/E Div. Market Last
berg rency 13.04.2011 high / low 12 months 2011 2012 Yield Cap CHF Update

EQUITIES NORTH AMERICA


Materials 13.8 12.3 84.9
ALCOA US OP D 986'052 AA.N aa us USD 16.55 18.47 9.81 14.69 11.9 10.6 0.7 15.7 04/11
DUPONT US OP M 927'399 DD.N dd us USD 53.82 56.52 33.66 38.46 14.5 12.9 3.0 44.3 03/11
NEWMONT MINING US OP D 956'952 NEM.N nem us USD 56.32 65.50 50.05 5.17 13.8 12.3 1.2 24.9 03/11
Capital Goods 15.8 13.0 160.7
3M COMPANY US OP M 1'405'105 MMM.N mmm us USD 92.86 94.64 67.98 10.04 14.9 13.3 2.4 59.1 01/11
CATERPILLAR US OP M 916'546 CAT.N cat us USD 107.63 113.93 54.89 59.97 17.2 12.9 1.6 61.4 01/11
HONEYWELL INTL US OP M 952'258 HON.N hon us USD 57.31 60.02 37.89 23.70 14.9 12.9 2.3 40.2 02/11
Transportation 15.0 13.0 25.2
CSX US OP M 923'022 CSX.N csx us USD 76.11 80.42 46.51 37.23 15.0 13.0 1.4 25.2 03/11
Consumer Services 14.9 13.3 99.7
CARNIVAL CORP US OP D 1'585'458 CCL.N ccl us USD 37.63 48.14 29.68 -3.91 14.2 11.7 2.4 28.0 03/11
MCDONALD'S US OP C 950'605 MCD.N mcd us USD 76.89 80.94 65.31 10.76 15.2 14.0 3.2 71.7 01/11
Media 15.7 13.6 70.8
WALT DISNEY US OP M 984'192 DIS.N dis us USD 41.70 44.34 30.72 15.19 15.7 13.6 1.0 70.8 02/11
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 14.7 13.2 156.8
KRAFT FOODS US OP C 1'213'349 KFT.N kft us USD 32.40 32.67 27.49 4.92 14.5 12.9 3.7 50.6 02/11
PHILIP MORRIS INTL US OP M 3'754'629 PM.N pm us USD 66.11 67.28 42.94 28.87 14.8 13.4 4.1 106.2 02/11
Household & Personal Products 15.9 14.5 157.6
PROCTER & GAMBLE US OP C 963'896 PG.N pg us USD 62.99 66.95 39.37 -0.32 15.9 14.5 3.1 157.6 01/11
Health Care Equipment & Services 13.6 11.1 19.9
MEDCO HEALTH SOL US OP M 1'430'073 MHS.N mhs un USD 55.07 65.39 43.45 -11.12 13.6 11.1 0.0 19.9 03/11
Pharma & Biotech 9.2 8.8 280.1
MERCK & CO. US MP M 10'683'053 MRK.N mrk us USD 33.47 37.68 30.70 -7.57 9.0 8.7 4.6 92.2 02/11
PFIZER US OP M 962'004 PFE.N pfe us USD 20.46 20.75 14.00 19.86 9.2 9.0 3.9 146.2 02/11
TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS IL OP M 758'744 TEVA.O teva us USD 49.67 63.38 46.99 -19.90 9.8 8.7 1.6 41.7 02/11
Banks 12.1 10.0 44.6
US BANCORP US OP M 1'201'389 USB.N usb us USD 25.99 28.94 20.44 -8.00 12.1 10.0 1.8 44.6 01/11
Diversified Financials 10.4 8.2 434.6
BANK OF AMERICA US OP D 748'628 BAC.N bac us USD 13.27 19.86 10.91 -31.60 10.7 7.2 0.8 120.0 01/11
BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON US OP M 2'824'731 BK.N bk us USD 29.63 32.50 23.78 -7.92 11.8 10.0 1.7 32.9 03/11
CITIGROUP US OP D 942'676 C.N c us USD 4.50 5.15 3.53 -8.72 10.9 8.6 0.2 117.1 01/11
JPMORGAN CHASE US OP M 1'161'460 JPM.N jpm us USD 46.25 48.36 35.16 -3.10 9.6 8.2 1.7 164.6 04/11
Insurance 8.5 7.6 41.6
METLIFE US OP D 1'025'316 MET.N met us USD 44.17 48.72 35.38 -4.87 8.5 7.6 2.2 41.6 02/11
Software 10.0 9.3 192.4
MICROSOFT US OP M 951'692 MSFT.O msft us USD 25.63 31.58 22.73 -16.84 10.0 9.3 2.4 192.4 02/11
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Company Country Rec. Risk Valor Reuters Bloom- Cur- Price 52 Weeks Performance P/E P/E Div. Market Last
berg rency 13.04.2011 high / low 12 months 2011 2012 Yield Cap CHF Update

EQUITIES NORTH AMERICA


Technology Hardware 12.9 11.3 383.3
APPLE US MP M 908'440 AAPL.O aapl us USD 336.13 364.90 199.25 36.81 14.6 12.7 0.0 276.7 01/11
CORNING US OP D 921'667 GLW.N glw us USD 19.34 23.43 15.45 -4.78 9.7 8.8 1.0 27.1 02/11
HEWLETT-PACKARD US OP M 938'718 HPQ.N hpq us USD 41.13 54.75 37.32 -24.56 7.8 7.2 0.8 79.5 02/11
Semiconductors 10.6 9.8 133.0
INTEL US OP M 941'595 INTC.O intc us USD 19.78 24.37 17.60 -15.90 9.7 9.0 3.6 97.0 02/11
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS US MP M 976'910 TXN.N txn us USD 34.34 36.71 22.65 27.66 13.0 12.1 1.5 36.0 02/11
Telecommunication 12.8 11.8 159.4
AT&T US OP C 2'342'429 T.N t us USD 30.18 31.00 23.78 15.02 12.8 11.8 5.7 159.4 03/11

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