Lesson 5 - Probability Distributions

Probability Distributions
Jeremy G. Vicencio
2nd Semester, A.Y. 2010-2011
Probability Distribution
• A device which summarizes the relationship

between the values of a random variable and the
probabilities of their occurrence.
• It may be expressed in the form of a
table, graph, or formula.
Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Lesson 5
3rd Week, January 2011
Probability Distribution of a
Discrete Random Variable
• The probability distribution of a discrete random

variable is a table, graph, or formula, or other
device used to specify all possible values of a
discrete random variable along with their
respective probabilities.

Lesson 5
In an article in the American Journal of Obstetrics and

Gynecology, Buitendijk and Bracken state that during
the previous 25 years there had been an increasing
awareness of the potentially harmful effects of drugs
and chemicals on the developing fetus. The authors
assessed the use of medication in a population of
women who were delivered of infants at a large
European hospital between 1980 and 1982, and
studied the association of medication use with
various maternal characteristics such as
Lesson 5
alcohol, tobacco, and illegal drug use. Their findings
suggest that women who engage in risk-taking

behavior during pregnancy are also more likely to use
medications while pregnant. Table 5.1 shows the
prevalence of prescription and nonprescription drug
use in pregnancy among the study subjects.
We wish to construct the probability distribution
of the discrete variable X = number of prescription
and nonprescription drugs used by the study subjects.

Lesson 5
Table 5.1 Prevalence of Prescription and Nonprescription Drug Use in
Pregnancy Among Women Delivered of Infants at a Large European Hospital
Number of Drugs Frequency
0 1425
1 1351
2 793
3 348
4 156
5 58
6 28
7 15
8 6
9 3
10 1
12 1
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) Total 4185
Lesson 5 SOURCE: Simone Buitendjik and Michael B. Bracken, “Medication in Early Pregnancy: Prevalence of Use and Relationship to Maternal
Probability Distributions Characteristics,” American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 165(1991), 33-40 as printed in Biostatistics: A Foundation for Analysis in the
3rd Week, January 2011 Health Sciences by Wayne W. Daniel (1995)
Table 5.2 Probability Distribution of Number of Prescription and
Nonprescription Drugs Used in Pregnancy By Women Delivered
of Infants at a Large European Hospital
Number of Drugs (x) P (X=x)
0 0.3405
1 0.3228
2 0.1895
3 0.0832
4 0.0373
5 0.0139
6 0.0067
7 0.0036
8 0.0014
9 0.0007
10 0.0002
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) 12 0.0002
Lesson 5
Probability Distributions Total 1.0000
0.40
0.35
0.30
Probability 0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
x (number of drugs)

Figure 5.1 Graphical representation of the
Lesson 5
probability distribution shown in Table 5.2
Two essential properties of a probability distribution

of a discrete variable:
1) 0 ≤ P(X=x) ≤ 1
2) ∑P(X=x) = 1

Lesson 5
What is the probability that a randomly selected

woman will be one who used seven prescription
and nonprescription drugs?
Solution: the desired probability is P(X=7). From

Table 5.2, it will be seen that the answer is 0.0036

Lesson 5

woman used either two or three drugs?
Solution: Use the addition rule for mutually

exclusive events. Using probability notation and
the values from Table 5.2, the answer is
P(2 ∪ 3) = P(2) + P(3) = 0.1895 + 0.0832 = 0.2727

Lesson 5
Cumulative probability distribution

The cumulative probability for xi is written as
F(x) = P(X ≤ xi)
It gives the probability that X is less than or equal
to a specified value, xi.

Lesson 5
Table 5.3 Cumulative Probability Distribution of Number of Prescription and
Nonprescription Drugs Used in Pregnancy By Women Delivered
of Infants at a Large European Hospital
Number of Drugs (x) Cumulative Frequency P(X ≤ xi)

0 0.3405
1 0.6633
2 0.8528
3 0.9360
4 0.9733
5 0.9872
6 0.9939
7 0.9975
8 0.9989
9 0.9996
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) 10 0.9998
Lesson 5
Probability Distributions 12 1.0000
Figure 5.1 Cumulative probability distribution of number of prescription and

Lesson 5 prescription drugs used during pregnancy Used in Pregnancy by women
3rd Week, January 2011 delivered of infants at a large European hospital
What is the probability that a woman picked at

random will be one who used three or fewer
drugs?
Solution: The probability in question can be found

directly in Table 5.3 by reading the cumulative
probability opposite x = 3. Therefore,
P(x ≤ 3) = 0.9360
Lesson 5
What is the probability that a woman picked at

random will be one who used fewer than 3 drugs?
Solution: Since a woman who used fewer than

three drugs used either two, one, or no drugs, the
answer is the cumulative probability for 2. That is,
P(x < 3) = P(x ≤ 2) = 0.8528

Lesson 5

woman used six or more drugs?
Solution: Use the concept of complementary

probabilities. P(x ≥ 6) + P(x ≤ 5) = 1. Therefore,
P(x ≥ 6) = 1 – P(x ≤ 5) = 1 – 0.9872 = 0.0128

Lesson 5

woman is one who used between two and five
drugs inclusive?
Solution: P(x ≤ 5) = 0.9872 is the probability that a
woman used between zero and five drugs. To get
the probability of between two and five
drugs, subtract from 0.9872, the probability of
one or fewer.
P(2 ≤ x ≤ 5) = P(x ≤ 5) – P(x ≤ 1) =
Lesson 5 0.9872 – 0.6633 = 0.3239
Continuous
70
60
50
Frequency
40
30
20
10
0
10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69
Age
Figure 5.3.1 Histogram of the Ages of 169 Subjects Who Participated in a

Study of Sparteine and Mephenytoin Oxidation
Lesson 5
Continuous
45
40
35
30
Frequency
25
20
15
10
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Age
Figure 5.3.2 Histogram of the Ages of 169 Subjects Who Participated in a

Study of Sparteine and Mephenytoin Oxidation
Lesson 5
Continuous
45
40
35
30
Frequency
25
20
15
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
Figure 5.3.3 Frequency Polygon of the Ages of 169 Subjects Who Participated
in a Study of Sparteine and Mephenytoin Oxidation
Lesson 5
Continuous
45
40
35
30
Frequency
25
20
15
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Age
Figure 5.3.4 Continuous Probability Distribution of the Ages of Subjects Who

Participate in Sparteine and Mephenytoin Oxidation Studies
Lesson 5
Continuous
Figure 5.4.1 A histogram resulting from a large number of values and

small class intervals.
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) Source: Daniel (1995)
Lesson 5
Continuous
• In general, as the number of

observations, n, approaches infinity, and the
width of the class intervals approaches zero, the
frequency polygon approaches a smooth curve.

Lesson 5
Continuous
Figure 5.4.2 Graphical representation of a continuous distribution

Source: Daniel (1995)

• The total area under the curve is equal to one
Lesson 5
Continuous
Figure 5.4.2 Graph of a continuous distribution

showing area between a and b
• The relative frequency of occurrence of values

between any two points on the x-axis is equal to the
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) total area bounded by the curve, the x-axis, and the
Lesson 5
perpendicular lines erected at two points on the x axis.
Continuous
• What is the probability of any specific value of the

random variable?

Lesson 5
Continuous
Finding area under a smooth curve

• Integral Calculus – to find the area under a
smooth curve between any two points a and
b, the density function is integrated from a to b.
• Density Function – a formula used to represent
the distribution of a continuous random variable.

Lesson 5
Continuous
Definition:
A nonnegative function f(x) is called a probability
distribution (sometimes called a probability
density function) of the continuous random
variable X if the total area bounded by its curve
and the x-axis is equal to 1 and if the subarea
under the curve bounded by the curve, the x-
axis, and perpendiculars erected at any two
points a and b gives the probability that X is
between the points a and b.
Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
Figure 5.6 Graph of a normal distribution


Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
Characteristics of the Normal Distribution:

1. It is symmetrical about its mean, µ.
2. The mean, median, and the mode are all equal.
3. The total area under the curve about the x-axis is
one square unit.
4. If we erect perpendiculars a distance of 1 SD
from the mean in both directions, the area
enclosed by these perpendiculars, the x-axis,
Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
and the curve will be approximately 68% of the

total area. (2 SD, 95%; 3 SD; 99.7%).
Figure 5.7 Subdivision of the Areas Under the Normal Curve

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
5. The normal distribution is completely

determined by the parameters µ and σ. In other
words, a different normal distribution is
specified for each different value of µ and σ.
Different values of µ shift the graph of the
distribution along the x-axis while different
values of σ determine the degree of flatness or
peakedness of the graph of the distribution.

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
Figure 5.8.1 Three normal distributions with different means but the
same amount of variability
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) Figure 5.8.2 Three normal distributions with different standard
Lesson 5
deviations but the same mean
3rd Week, January 2011 Source: Daniel (1995)
Normal Distribution
Standard Normal Dist./Unit Normal Dist.

• Has a mean of 0 and a standard dev. of 1
Bio 180 (Biostatistics) Figure 5.9 Graph of the Standard Normal Distribution
Lesson 5 Source: Daniel (1995)
Normal Distribution
• To find the area between z0 and z1, we need to

evaluate the following integral:

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• Given the standard normal distribution, find the

area under the curve, above the z-axis between
z = -∞ and z = 2 (0.9772)
Figure 5.10.1 Graph of the standard normal distribution showing area

Bio 180 (Biostatistics) between z = - ∞ and z = 2
Normal Distribution
The area can be interpreted in several ways:

• The probability that a z picked at random from a
population of z’s will have a value between -∞
and 2.
• The relative frequency of occurrence (or
proportion) of values of z between -∞ and 2, or
we may say that 97.72% of the z’s have a value
between -∞ and 2.
Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• Instead of looking up the areas on the table, you

can use Excel’s NORMSDIST function.
=NORMSDIST(z)

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• What is the probability that a z picked at random

from the population of z’s will have a value
between -2.55 and +2.55?
Figure 5.10.2 Standard normal curve showing P(-2.55 < z < 2.55)
Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• What proportion of z-values are between -2.74

and 1.53?
Figure 5.10.3 Standard normal curve showing proportion of z values

Bio 180 (Biostatistics) between z = -2.74 and z = 1.53
Normal Distribution
• Given the standard normal distribution, find

P(z ≥ 2.71)
Figure 5.10.4 Standard normal curve showing P(z ≥ 2.71).

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• Given the standard normal distribution, find

P(0.84 ≤ z ≤ 2.45)
Figure 5.10.5 Standard normal curve showing P(0.84 ≤ z ≤ 2.45)

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
As part of a study of Alzheimer’s disease

(AD), Dusheiko reported data that are compatible
with the hypothesis that brain weights of victims
of the disease are normally distributed. From the
reported data, we may compute a mean of
1076.80 grams and an SD of 105.76 grams. If we
assume that these results are applicable to all
victims of Alzheimer’s disease, find the probability
that a randomly selected victim of the disease will
have a brain that weighs less than 800 grams.
Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
Figure 5.11.1 Normal distribution to approximate distribution of brain

weights of patients with AD (mean and SD estimated)

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
Figure 5.11.1 Normal distribution of brain weights (x) and the standard
Lesson 5 normal distribution (z)
Probability Distributions Source: Daniel (1995)
Normal Distribution
• This formula transforms any value of x in any

normal distribution to the corresponding value of
z in the standard normal distribution.

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• Instead of using the formula, you may use Excel’s

STANDARDIZE function
=STANDARDIZE(x, mean, standard_dev)
• Then, apply the NORMSDIST function, or…

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• You may use the NORMDIST function
=NORMDIST (x, mean, standard_dev, cumulative)
• cumulative – if FALSE, returns the probability that

the x value will occur; if TRUE, returns the
probability that the value will be less than or
equal to x
Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• Suppose it is known that the heights of a certain

population of individuals are approximately
normally distributed with a mean of 70 inches
and a standard deviation of 3 inches. What is the
probability that a person picked at random from
this group will be between 65 and 74 inches tall?

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• In a population of 10,000 people described in the

previous example, how many would you expect to
be 6 feet 5 inches tall or taller?

Lesson 5
Normal Distribution
• In a population of 10,000 people described in the

previous example, how many would you expect to
be 6 feet 5 inches tall or taller?
Out of 10,000 people, we would expect

10,000(0.0099) = 99 to be 6 feet 5 inches (77
Lesson 5
inches) tall or taller

Lesson 5 - Probability Distributions

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Probability Distributions

• A device which summarizes the relationship

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

• The probability distribution of a discrete random

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

In an article in the American Journal of Obstetrics and

suggest that women who engage in risk-taking

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Two essential properties of a probability distribution

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

What is the probability that a randomly selected

Solution: the desired probability is P(X=7). From

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

What is the probability that a randomly selected

Solution: Use the addition rule for mutually

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Cumulative probability distribution

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Number of Drugs (x) Cumulative Frequency P(X ≤ xi)

Figure 5.1 Cumulative probability distribution of number of prescription and

What is the probability that a woman picked at

Solution: The probability in question can be found

What is the probability that a woman picked at

Solution: Since a woman who used fewer than

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

What is the probability that a randomly selected

Solution: Use the concept of complementary

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

What is the probability that a randomly selected

Figure 5.3.1 Histogram of the Ages of 169 Subjects Who Participated in a

Figure 5.3.2 Histogram of the Ages of 169 Subjects Who Participated in a

Figure 5.3.4 Continuous Probability Distribution of the Ages of Subjects Who

Figure 5.4.1 A histogram resulting from a large number of values and

• In general, as the number of

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Figure 5.4.2 Graphical representation of a continuous distribution

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Figure 5.4.2 Graph of a continuous distribution

• The relative frequency of occurrence of values

• What is the probability of any specific value of the

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Finding area under a smooth curve

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Figure 5.6 Graph of a normal distribution

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Characteristics of the Normal Distribution:

and the curve will be approximately 68% of the

Figure 5.7 Subdivision of the Areas Under the Normal Curve

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

5. The normal distribution is completely

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

Standard Normal Dist./Unit Normal Dist.

• To find the area between z0 and z1, we need to

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

• Given the standard normal distribution, find the

Figure 5.10.1 Graph of the standard normal distribution showing area

The area can be interpreted in several ways:

• Instead of looking up the areas on the table, you

Bio 180 (Biostatistics)

• What is the probability that a z picked at random

• What proportion of z-values are between -2.74

Figure 5.10.3 Standard normal curve showing proportion of z values