WorkBook - Iteration II - Group 8

EIBE Assignment
Iteration – II
Group 8
Ahmed Pasha
Chiao-Wen Chang
Kaustubh Manohar
Pranal Rai
Rahul Aich
Rony George
Strathclyde Graduate Business School

10th October 2010
Exploring the International Business Environment
Acknowledgements
We would like to acknowledge a “remarkable person” who we contacted

during this process to gain a better understanding of the real issues
hampering the implementation of the MDGs in Nicaragua. Mr. Mauricio
José Morales, who is a citizen of Nicaragua and works for the Government
as an English translator and liaison officer with the embassy in US and
Managua, was kind enough to share his vast understanding of the
Nicaraguan political system and the crossroad at which Nicaragua stands
at the moment. It was during this detailed discussion, that his subtle hints
towards the fact that mismanagement of the financial aid was the biggest
stumbling block in Nicaragua’s progress towards the MDG supported our
findings and the basis of our storylines. We as a team is truly grateful to
him for giving our research an analytical read and helping us understand
Nicaragua better.
We would also like to thank Dr. George Burt, who is a “remarkable
person” in his own right! His inputs before and during the entire process
helped us to streamline our efforts. Under his expert tutelage, we
managed to move up on the learning curve and achieved what seemed
like an impossible task a couple of weeks back.
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Full Time MBA 2010-11 – BHREAC. Group 8. Country - Nicaragua
INDEX
1. UNDP millennium goals matrix…………….…………….………… 4

a. Importance of MGDs on Nicaragua…………….…………….…………4
b. Millennium development goals…………….…………….………… 4
2. Process diary……………………………………………………………… 15
3. Points of critical reflection………………………………………………… 39
4. Research……………………………………………………………………… 43
5. Identification of uncertainties…………………………………………… 52
6. Uncertainties and plausible outcomes…………………………………… 59
7. Clustering of uncertainties……………………………………………………71
8. Clusters……………………………………………………………………… 75
a. Impact of judicial system on migration…………….…………….…… 75
b. Effect of privatization on the direction of economy……… 76
c. Role of government on local industry…………….…………….……… 77
d. Impact of town planning on health care…………….…………….…… 78
e. Impact of regional co – operation on economy…………….………… 79
f. Impact of construction on Nicaragua Canal on Central America…… 80
g. Attitude of U.S. towards Nicaragua’s international partnerships…… 81
h. Effects of FDI on local economy…………….…………….…………….82
i. Effects of corruption on national and international relations………… 83
j. Nature of utilization of aid on social welfare projects…………….……84
k. Role of government in food security…………….…………….……… 85
l. Nature of constitutional democracy in the future…………….……… 86
9. Impact / predictability analysis…………….…………….…………….… 87
10. Framing and scoping scenario end states…………….…………….… 88
11. Scenario stories…………….…………….…………….…………….……… 89
a. Bureaucracy - the epoxy that greases the wheels of progress…… 89
b. Progressing under the wings of the eagle……………….…………… 91
c. Marooned on the island called ‘debt’…………….…………….……… 93
d. “NICARAGUA AVANZA” – hacia la iquierda…………….…………… 96
12. Iceberg analysis…………….…………….…………….…………….……… 99
a. Rise in unemployment…….…………….…………….…………….… 99
b. Reduced cases of water borne diseases…….…………….… 102
c. Increase in street crime…………….…………….……………...…...…. 104
d. Majority population below poverty live…………….…………………… 106
13. Implications vs. scenarios…………….…………….…………….………… 109
14. APPENDIX 1: Early indicators…………….…………….…………….… 111
15. APPENDIX 2: Bibliography…………….…………….…………….……… 112
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1. UNDP MILLENNIUM GOALS MATRIX
a. The importance of MDGs for Nicaragua
The “Millennium Declaration” was unanimously adopted by the 189 member

countries of the United Nations at the conclusion of the Millennium Summit held in
New York in September 2000. In the declaration, all signatory states undertook to
spare no efforts to “free our fellow men, women and children from the abject and
dehumanizing conditions of extreme poverty”. The declaration incorporated a list of
eight “Millennium Development Goals” (MDGs). At the same time, the MDGs include
18 measurable and time-bound targets.
We will attempt to study each MDG and point out the crossroad at which the nation
stands at the moment with respect to achieving these goals.
The four scenarios that we are going to put forward are an amalgamation of two vital
characteristics which are both highly unpredictable and carry a heavy impact on
MDG’s and the future of the nation. These two characteristics are:
1) Nature of Utilization of Aid in Welfare Projects

2) Attitude of US towards Nicaragua’s Diverse International Partnerships
These two characteristics will help us develop four future scenarios and how the
MDG’s would be impacted in each.
b. Millennium Development Goals
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Present Scenario in Nicaragua
In Nicaragua, extreme poverty increased between 2001 and 2005. Since 2007,
however, the government of President Daniel Ortega has been able to reduce
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extreme poverty despite the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great
Depression.
The Nicaraguan government's figure shows that, at present, 14.6% of the population
lives in extreme poverty, which means the country is half way to reaching the first
Millennium Development Goal [MDG1 - to reduce by half the number of people living
in extreme poverty by 2015].
A study financed by Holland and Switzerland and carried out with technical
assistance from the World Bank, however, found in 2009 that only 9.7% of the
population was living in extreme poverty which would imply that Nicaragua had
already met MDG1. Similarly, in their 2010 report, the FAO [the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization] and the WFP [the World Food Program], also find that
Nicaragua, in terms of the reduction of malnutrition, has already met MDG1.
As shown in the following table Nicaragua proudly sits among a host of nations who
have already achieved their MDG1.
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Target 1C of the Millennium Development Goals seeks to halve, between 1990 and
2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. The calculation of progress
compares the latest available country level information on the prevalence of
undernourishment (2005-07) with the rates that existed in 1990-92 (the base year for
the hunger target). The projection for 2015 assumes that the trends between both
periods continue in the future. Source: FAOSTAT (www.fao.org/hunger)
Future Impact of our Scenarios on MDG1

Since the MDG1 has already been met in Nicaragua, our four scenarios do not impact
MDG1.
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Perhaps the second most important of the MDGs is to achieve universal primary
education , one of the most recognized pillars of the human development.
Univarsal primary education in Nicaragua remains a challenge at the present, even
though some progress has been made towards reduction in illiteracy. On August 22nd
2009, the 29th anniversary of the end of the historic National Literacy Cruzade, Education
Minister Miguel de Castilla presented a ministerial placard to President Daniel Ortega
declaring Nicaragua as territory free of illiteracy. Nicaragua is now officially the fifth
country in Latin America to be declared free of illiteracy along with Cuba, Venezuela,
Bolivia and Costa Rica.
At the end of June a delegation of experts from UNESCO visited the country to verify the
governent's claim that, as a result of the two year long National Literacy Campaign, the
percentage of illiterates in Nicaragua had fallen below 5%. The delegation was indeed
able to confirm that, Nicaragua had an illiteracy rate of 4.1%. The literacy campaign
continues, however, and by August 15th the rate had fallen to 3.46, according to Minister
Miguel de Castilla.
Examples of the reduction in key indicators include illiteracy which has dropped from 22%
in 2006 to 3.3% in 2009 thanks to a campaign using the successful Cuban model “Yo Sí
Puedo” [“Yes, I can”].
Currently the Ministry of Education is coordinating a nationwide consultation process
involving all the people who took part in the national literacy campaign, either as teachers
or as pupils, as well as education authorities and specialists from diverse institutions and
organizations in order to create the nation's Ten Year Education Plan: 2011 - 2021.
Another important aspect of the government's education policy that has provoked positive
change in the classroom in the new curriculum and the monthly teacher training
workshops known as TEPCEs (Planning, Evaluation, Education Training Workshops).
Future Impact of our scenarios on MDG2
BUREAUCRACY-THE EPOXY THAT GREASES THE WHEELS OF PROGRESS

In this scenario, achievement of MDG2 looks like highly ambitious and we peg it at
achievable yet challenging. The huge inflow of foreign aid and the above mentioned
government efforts begin have a positive impact on the primary education goal but the pit
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falls of a bureaucracy laden with corruption slows down the wheel of progress and
eventually Nicaragua falls short of achieving the MDG2.
PROGRESSING UNDER THE WINGS OF THE EAGLE
In this scenario we predict that the Nicaragua will meet MDG2 as the country is slowly but
steadily progressing under the tutelage of aid and guidance from the US.
“NICARAGUA AVANZA”-HACIA LA IQUIERDA
In this scenario too Nicaragua is able to achieve MDG2, with the help of regional and
leftist allies and diversification of co-operative partnerships.
MAROONED ON THE ISLAND CALLED DEBT
This particular scenario states that Nicaragua is in the danger of being marooned in an
island of debt causing a situation like the lost decade of debt crisis like the one that
happened in Latin America in the 1980’s. Achievement of MDG2 is a bleak possibility in
an economy crippled in crisis.
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
The 1987 Constitution of Nicaragua grants equal civil rights to all citizens and prohibits
gender-based discrimination. The new Penal Code (adopted in 2001) introduced laws to
prohibit and criminalize discriminatory acts. A second report on human development in
Nicaragua, produced in 2002, noted significant progress in some areas: it stated that
social and cultural behavior was becoming less discriminatory, but domestic and sexual
violence continued to undermine women’s rights to a significant degree. Poverty is
widespread in Nicaragua, but has the greatest impact on households headed by women
in rural areas (about one-fifth of rural households).
These signs look promising for the achievement of MDG3, but ineffective implementation
of equality laws might again slow down the progress made by Nicaragua in this field.

As we already mention, effective implementation of equality laws will have a huge impact
on whether or not Nicaragua will meet its goal for MDG3. In this scenario Bureaucratic
corruption will have an adverse impact on the economy of Nicaragua. In an unstable
economy, women’s rights will take a back seat as the primary goal of the policy makers
would be to combat poverty and hunger.
Nicaragua meets its goal of MDG3 as US support helps it to develop a sustainable
economy.
Nicaragua is successful in achieving MDG3 as it has a sustainable economy and has
diversified trade and cooperative relationships with economically strong leftist allies. Also,
the Central American region as a whole will move toward achieving its MDG’s.
In isolation, Nicaragua would not be able to achieve MDG3, as again economic doldrums
and a severe debt crisis will push women’s empowerment policies to the back seat.
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Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
Present scenario in Nicaragua
As per a comprehensive review of available sources of mortality data, there was a rapid
fall in infant mortality commenced in the early 1970s and had continued steadily till the
80s. There might be several different factors leading to this surprising turn of events
including improved access to health services, Nicaraguan cultural attributes, income,
nutrition and breastfeeding practices. This characteristic fall slowed down once the
country went through civil war and unrest again in the 80s, thus creating a cause of
concern for the UNDP and its achievement of the goal to reduce child mortality.
As per the data collected by the World Bank for child Mortality rates across countries,
Nicaragua still has a significant measure of child mortality which needs to be reduced
much further. This is challenging at present since the majority of population in the country
lives below the poverty line and is isolated in rural and marginal areas. Lack of heath care
facilities coupled with basic amenities like availability of food and drinking water has
greatly attributed to the death of infants. Also, the condemnation of abortion has lead to
the birth of many ill infants and sometimes orphans doe to the lack of basic amenities.
Organizations like the UNDP and IMF still have a long way to go before they can declare
achievement of this goal.
In this scenario, the achievement of the MDG4 looks highly challenging. Our scenario
focuses around the corruption in the government and a rise in unemployment. This would
inadvertently lead to an increased pressure on local health services to ensure the safety
of all the Nicaraguans. This coupled with an unfriendly attitude from the government
would take the country still further down the road to poverty, thus making the end means
of reducing child mortality challenging.
As the title suggests, this scenario maps out the benefits that the country would achieve
with forces like an efficient government and friendly ties with the US. Increased
investment in healthcare and education would help alleviate the state of the common
man and this lead to social upheaval and thus possible achievement of ruction of child
mortality.
“Nicaragua Moving forward” talks about the progress that the economy and the society
would experience with the combination of an efficient government coupled with increased
aid from foreign sources like Russia, China and Iran. Sustainable economic growth would
help increase the literacy rate among women and increased healthcare investments. This
would help achieve the goal to reduce child mortality.
This particular scenario states that Nicaragua is in the danger of being marooned in debt
causing a situation like the lost decade of debt crisis like the one that happened in Latin
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America in the 1980’s. Achievement of this goal is highly challenging in a falling

economy.
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Improving maternal health in Nicaragua is currently a challenge. This is due to the lack of
healthcare facilities in the rural regions of Nicaragua outside the capital Managua and
also the stringent abortion laws in Nicaragua. Abortion is illegal in Nicaragua and this
leads to many maternal deaths in Nicaragua as abortion is not an option even when a
complicated birth is involved.
According to Amnesty International's report, The Total Abortion Ban in Nicaragua, the
2008 complete ban on abortions is a serious obstacle to best practice decision-making by
health care providers when dealing with obstetric complications, which endangers the
lives and health of all pregnant women in Nicaragua. The new legal framework sets
lengthy prison sentences for women and girls who seek abortions for pre-existing health
reasons and health problems that develop due to pregnancy as well as rape and incest
victims who seek abortions.
The new laws also punish health care professionals who perform abortion services as
well as those who unintentionally cause abortion when treating serious pregnancy
complications. The net result of the abortion ban is a severe chilling effect on health care
providers. Out of fear of imprisonment, medical providers delay or deny treatment of
serious pregnancy complications, which risks the lives and health of Nicaraguan women
and girls seeking medical care.

In this scenario, achievement of MDG5 is predicted to be challenging. As the aid given
from US and other foreign countries leads to positive impact on improving MDG5, the
problem is determined by whether the government can fully utilize the aids or not.
In this scenario, achievement of MDG5 is also challenging. The aid given by US is
expected to be fully utilized to increase the overall social welfare.
MDG5 is predicted to be achieved in this scenario. The developed society with increasing
literacy rate has better implementation of family planning.
Achievement of MDG5 is again challenging in this scenario. Since the aid from foreign
countries is not being used properly, the poor is increasing then comes the problem of
lack of education. It will influence the achievement of MDG5.
Goal 6: COMBAT HIV / AIDS, MALARIA & OTHER DISEASES
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HIV pandemic continues to be one of the most important challenges for public health
worldwide in terms of communicable diseases. According to the latest “Report on the
World Epidemic of AIDS” for 2007, 33 million people live with HIV, where Sub-Saharan
Africa is the most severely affected region due to a yet inappropriate access to services
for preventing and treating HIV. With only 0.2 percent of the adult population estimated to
be HIV-positive, Nicaragua has one of the lowest HIV prevalence rates in Central
America. Sexual activity is the primary mode of HIV transmission in Nicaragua.
Unprotected heterosexual intercourse is reported to account for 72 percent of HIV
infections, and unprotected sex between men is estimated to account for 26 percent,
according to UNAIDS.
Factors that put Nicaraguans at risk include early sexual debut; social pressures for
males to have multiple sexual partners and take sexual risks; widespread poverty;
women’s and girls’ inability to negotiate when and under what circumstances to have sex
or use condoms; gender-based violence; and sexual abuse of women and girls.
Compounding these factors, access to HIV/AIDS services and information is limited in
much of the country due to budgetary priorities and limitations. Moreover, conservative
religious and social values make it difficult to talk about sex and ways to protect oneself
from disease or unwanted pregnancy. Looking at the above factors it seems that meeting
this goal will be challenging for Nicaragua. The figures below confirm that Nicaragua is
actually much better off in terms of HIV/AIDS infection levels as compared to its
neighboring countries.
10

In this scenario, achievement of MDG6 looks highly challenging and we peg it
achievable yet challenging. The huge inflow of foreign aid and the above mentioned
government efforts begin have a positive impact on the healthcare sector however the
inefficient government laden with corruption slows down the wheel of progress and
eventually Nicaragua falls short of achieving the MDG6.
In this scenario we predict that the Nicaragua will meet MDG6 as the country is slowly
but steadily progressing under the tutelage of aid and guidance from the US.
In this scenario too Nicaragua is able to achieve MDG6, with the help of regional and
leftist allies and increased awareness among people about the diseases. Increased
investment in healthcare would mean diseases like Malaria and other communicable
diseases are treated and prevented from spreading.
This particular scenario states that Nicaragua is in the danger of being stranded in an
island of debt causing a situation like the lost decade of debt crisis like the one that
happened in Latin America in the 1980’s. Achievement of MDG6 is a bleak possibility in
an economy crippled in crisis and corruption.
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Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Currently the majority of nicaraguan population lives at the rural area, which is
undeveloped and not properly connected to the urban areas. People living in the rural
areas are lacking the facility of safe water to dring, good sanitary, which in turn increase
the chances of illness in society.
After the efforts from UNDP & Government, some progress has been witnessed, still a
large proporting of the population is not able to get the safe drinking water. It is also
observed that the number of and proportion of people living in slums has a positive
trend.
In regard to pollution with greenhouse effect and depletion of ozone layer has decreased
slightly.

Meeting the MDG goal 7 in this scenario is challenging as the international organizations
are pumping money to make available safe water for rural people and improve the
sanitation condition, but corruption & no transperancy in the government offices will slow
down the speed of any development.
Under this scenario the basic requirement of the MDG 7 is being fulfilled as the efficient
government with the help from US can provide the safe derinking water and good
sanitation to people, however on the other side, increased number of industry in the
country can increase the CO2 emission and have the adverse effect on the ozone layer.
Meeting the MDG 7 under this scenario is also very challenging as the good government
with the leftist can help the people by providing safe drinking water and good sanitation
but again the introduction of industrialization can have the sever negative impact on the
surrounding environment.
There are very less chances of meeting the MDG 7 under this scenario as in-efficient
government will not be able to meet the basic need of water and sanitation to people.
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
The importance of achieving MDG8 for a country like Nicaragua is quite evident.
Nicaragua is a country highly dependant on global partnerships for aid, technology and
trade-most notable US. The current President Daniel Ortega, a leftist, has had to walk a
tight rope of diplomacy with US and other Central American neighbours. Plus,
Nicaragua’s gowing relationship with economically stong leftist countries like China and
Russia is putting a straing on the already precarious Nicaraguan-US relationship.
12

MDG8 has the potential to be fulfilled in this scenario and we predict if Nicaragua
chooses US over the other leftist allies, he can be assured of a mutually beneficial
partnership with US and most of the other rightist European countries.
This scenario too predicts the achievement of MDG8, as a strong US influence on the
growth of Nicaragua will ensure continued support from US and its allies
“NICARAGUA AVANZA” - HACIA LA IQUIERDA
Nicaragua can achieve MDG8 if it diversifies its co-operative partnerships and creates
stronger ties with growing economies like China. In addition to that, a reduced
dependence on US will lead to building stronger regional ties and increased participation
in alliances like the Bolivarian Alliance for Americas (ALBA) and the Central America
Integration System (SICA)
In our last scenario, Nicaragua fails to achieve MDG8 as its ineffective administration
and lopsided policies have led to an international snub from all its former allies including
the US and also the leftist allies like China and Russia.
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2. PROCESS DIARY
Day/Date 1) EIBE Subject - What 2) What actions do we take to Action by?

do we not know? address 1)?
Iteration-2 We did not know which At 1600 Hrs Friday afternoon, All
Day 1, 1st central American country we regrouped at Room 526.
Oct to select for our group? One of things on our agenda
1600Hrs was to decide the country to
work on. Rony drew the map of
the entire central American
region on the white board so
that we could see the location of
each country. Then all of us
gave their views on their choices
of country. We had Panama in
our discussion for its strategic
location, and then we had Costa
Rica for its developed tourism
industry and Honduras for
having three neighboring
countries. At the end of the 15
min debate we finally agreed to
work on Nicaragua as it was one
of the poorest countries in that
region and we felt that UNDP
would be very interested in the
upliftment of that country. Apart
from that Nicaragua had two
neighbors: Costa Rica and
Honduras and that would have
given us enough material to
study on the relations it had with
its neighbors.
Iteration-2 We did not know how to Nicaragua was a big country All
Day 1, 1st divide the research work and we had to focus on all
Oct between the six of us? aspects of STIRDEEPER. It was
1620Hrs very important that everyone
deeply researched on the
country and that there was no
duplication of research work.
So, we decided that we divide
the STIRDEEPER among the
six of us and each would
individually research on his
corresponding area allocated to
him. That would have meant
14
that every individual person got

an opportunity to go deep into
the specific area and find the
underlying reasons for its
occurrence and at the same
time think about how it
interacted with other areas such
as culture or technology. The
work allocation is shown below :
Rony: Technology industry and
trade
Ahmed : Society religion and
education
Rahul : Demographics and
environment, ecology
Kaustubh: Politics, policy and
trade
Pranal: Legal , judicial
environment
Wendy: Economic environment
Iteration-2 We did not know the By 1635, we had decided on the All
Day 1, 1st action items for the country and allocated the areas
Oct weekend in terms of of research to all of us. Once
1635Hrs uncertainties and its done, we all had confusions on
corresponding plausible what was expected out of each
outcomes? one of us. We all agreed to :
1 Document the research we did
over the weekend so that we do
not forget what we researched.
2 To make 150 uncertainties
and that would mean all of us
contributed 25 yellow post-its or
uncertainties corresponding to
his area of research.
3 To think and make at least 30
uncertainties and document it
on our laptops. The additional 5
was agreed because inevitably
we would have come across
duplications and eliminations of
uncertainties.
4 To think at least 2 plausible
outcomes of all the uncertainties
we have thought about.
Document even if we had more
than 2 outcomes as they would
15
anyway be subject to discussion

later on. So, everyone agreed to
come up with 60 pink slips by
Monday morning.
5 Apart from working on our
individual allocated areas we
also agreed to study about the
country as a whole which would
help us join missing links when
we had to co-relate our areas
with others such as society or
technology.
Iteration-2 We did not know the We recognized the fact that Rahul
Day 1, 1st timelines for the various there was too little time and too
Oct 1650 tasks for the upcoming much to do. So we decided to
Hrs week? pull up a time table and agreed
that we would definitely meet
those time lines by the End of
day even if it meant stretching
by a few hours in the evening.
We jotted down all the tasks and
then again broke them down
into sub tasks. We then
brainstormed on how much time
should be allocated to each
work. Rahul agreed to make the
time table. We all agreed on the
following time scales :
(Note : All times are mentioned
in BST below)
Mon 0830 : setting up of the
room
Mon 0900-1400 : Brief
presentation by all and
yellow/pink post-its
brainstorming
Mon 1400-1430 : Breather
Mon 1430-17-30 : Clustering,
Validating and linkages
Tue 0900-1100 : Ranking &
selection of two critical items
Tue 1100-1300 : Naming the
polar ends and their critical
characteristics
Tue 1300-1330 : Pasting of pink
post-its
Tue 1330-1400 : Breather
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Tue 1400-1500 : First story

creation by the entire group
Tue 1500-1800 : Group to be
divided into three. Creation of
three stories by the three groups
Tue 1800-EOD : Validation of
the three stories by all the three
groups
Wed 0900-1400 : Iceberg
analysis, MDG matrix formation,
feedback loop
Wed 1400-1430 : Breather
Wed 1430-1730 : PPT creation
Wed 1730-1800 : Presentation
rehearsals
Thu 0900-EOD : Presentation
Iteration-2 We did not know whether We agreed that we won’t be All
Day 1, 1st we had to meet during the meeting over the weekend. We
Oct 1700 weekend? appreciated the fact that the
Hrs week ahead was going to be
very challenging and we all
needed some rest to recharge
our batteries. We decided that
we will settle our personal
commitments over the weekend
and rather not meet. However,
we would be in touch with each
other via emails and group
chats if required.
Iteration-2 We did not know what We all agreed to meet at 0900 Rahul &
Day 1, 1st time to meet on the Hrs. At the same time we Kaustubh
Oct 1710 Monday to start our work? decided that someone would be on Monday
Hrs coming in early each day over
the next week to collect the keys
from downstairs and would start
setting up the room so that we
can start our work at 0900 Hrs
sharp. We needed two people to
come in early as the room had
to be set and flip charts pasted.
Rahul and Kaustubh
volunteered to come in early on
Monday. Ahmed volunteered on
Tuesday and Pranal on the
Wednesday.
Iteration-2 We did not know how and We all wanted to finish of Ahmed
Day 1, 1st when to complete the iteration #1 before the start of
17
Oct 1720 workbook for iteration #1 the next week. Hence, we

Hrs and how to manage agreed to complete and finish of
version control of our the workbook over the weekend.
workbook? Ahmed agreed to become the
facilitator and allocated work to
each of us. All of us agreed to
complete their bits and send it to
Ahmed and he would then
manage version control of the
workbook. It was also decided
that we all finish our individual
work by Saturday EOD so that
we gave ourselves enough time
to review each other’s work and
feedback. Ahmed was again
identified to manage the
reviewing work of iteration #1
and all of us agreed to mark in
their comments using the track
changes tool in Microsoft word.
That way he can easily identify
who has changed what in the
document and incorporate the
changes in his master
document.
Iteration-2 How religiously we had to Although we made our time
Day 1, 1st follow the time table we tables allocating time to each
Oct 1720 had just made? task we also agreed that we
Hrs would not compromise on the
quality of the work by following
the time table too strictly. We
agreed that we would keep the
time table in the back of our
minds while working. In case a
task takes too much time we
would ensure that we are not
too much behind in terms of
time and that our EOD goal is
still reachable by adding a
couple of extra hours of work in
the evening.
Iteration-2 How we would get hold of We agreed that we needed the All
Day 1, 1st remarkable people who guidance of remarkable people
Oct 1740 could help us and when who could help us with our
Hrs do we approach them with scenario building. We identified
our queries? two sources of reaching
remarkable people :
18
1 Personal connections
2 Academia
We all agreed to invest some
time over the weekend to find
such people and establish
personal relations with them.
We would ask them if they could
give their feedback on our
scenarios later on in the week.
Iteration-2 After the weekend long Monday morning we reached at All
Day 2 Mon research, how do we all 0900 Hours and we all had done
04 Oct come at the same our researches on our specified
1030 Hrs knowledge level? fields. However, before we could
start off with the brainstorming
sessions on the uncertainties
and outcomes it was important
that we all were at the same
level OF understanding and we
all could have contributed
constructively in the discussion.
As per Rahul’s suggestion we
agreed that we all gave a brief
10 minute presentation on the
field of research allocated and
all of us listened carefully and
noted down the relevant point
discussed in the presentation.
The presentation was very
helpful and we were then able to
link the various links of the chain
which we all have individually
researched on over the
weekend.
Iteration-2 How could we manage the Before we started over with the All
Day 2 Mon huge information which brainstorming session over the
04 Oct was on our way in the uncertainties and the outcomes
0930 Hrs form of 140 uncertainties we stopped for a while to
and their corresponding discuss on how we are going to
300 outcomes? manage such huge information
which was going to be thrown
on the table in a few minutes
time. Effective management of
information was very important
here. We all had the
uncertainties and the outcomes
on our laptops, so we decided :
1 To write down the
19
uncertainties and their

outcomes on yellow and pink
post-its respectively.
2 even if we had multiple
outcomes, we would still write
them down on pinks.
3 We all agreed to mark each of
our post its with a mutually
agreed code. Eg if someone
had researched on society then
he would mark all his chits as
S1,S2 and so on. And he would
mark their corresponding
outcomes as S1A,S1B,S1C and
so on. However, we later felt
that marking A,B and C is
actually irrelevant as
uncertainties and outcomes
were on different colored post-
its.
4 We agreed to paste 6 different
flip charts on the wall and mark
each of them with a specific field
e.g. Technology. So the person
who has researched on
technology will paste his stickies
on this flip chart and that way it
was easier for us to look for
slips containing information
relevant to the field we were
searching for.
5 We agreed to stick yellow slip
and its corresponding pink slip
just by its side. That way we can
have a glance at the uncertainty
and its outcomes at one go
rather than searching for
outcomes on a different flip
chart.
We realized that by following the

above protocol we can manage
the vast information and at the
same time cut down time on
brainstorming of the yellow’s
and the pink’s.
Iteration-2 How are we going to We realized that have a single All
20
Day 2 Mon conduct the brainstorming facilitator going through each of

04 Oct session of the the chits would consume a lot of
1030 Hrs uncertainties and their time as he would have to read it
plausible outcomes? first from the wall, then take time
to understand the point written
on it and then put it down in
words to the group to discuss
on. So, we decided that the
person who had done the
research act as a facilitator for
his chits under discussion and
then hand over the role to the
next person whose chits would
be subject to brainstorming
then. That way we ensured
that :
1 All members got a chance to
facilitate
2 Everyone got a break during
the session
3 The ideas were put on table
very quickly as that very
member had done the research
and thought about its outcomes
4 Everyone contributed towards
the brainstorming. Usually
having a single facilitator means
that he gets less engrossed in
thinking and more towards
managing the energies within
the group effectively
Iteration-2 How long and how many The work involved in EIBE
Day 2 Mon breaks we were going to required us to think a lot and
04 Oct have over the next three hence we often used to get
entire Day days? mentally tired or exhausted. It
was very important for us to be
in the room with a very high
level of energy so that we
contributed towards the
discussion on the most creative
way.
We found that we were getting
exhausted every hour and a
half. So we decided to go for
more number of break however
with shorter duration. More
number of break meant they
21
could go down, have some fresh

air in the sun(if we are lucky),
have an energy bar or smoke
and get the energy level back
up. We also decided that we cut
short on the time of lunch and
break for just getting the lunch
from the café and have it on the
go in the room.
We realized that we were early
on in the week and we needed
to preserve our endurance
levels for the rest of the week
and if we had to stretch it would
had to be the Tuesday when we
stretched.
All these factors meant that we
have short and multiple breaks
over the next three days.
Iteration-2 How are we going to Ahmed was identified to capture Mostly
Day 2 Mon capture the huge the information on yellow and Ahmed. All
04 Oct information in terms of pink post its and collating the contributing
1030 Hrs uncertainties and data into the workbook for .
outcomes in the work iteration #2. However, it would
book have taken a lot of time for him
to start writing them down into
the workbook and we would
have wasted a lot of time when
he would had been
unproductive while writing down
the information in the chits.
Furthermore, a few chits were
paraphrased, clubbed or
removed from the flip charts
which added the complexity. So
we agreed that each individual
make changes to his yellow’s
and pink’s which he anyway had
in a soft copy, make the
alterations as discussed in the
brainstorming session and send
it to Ahmed in an email. That
way it would be easy for him to
collate the data into the work
book.
Iteration-2 How we were going to It was initially looking a very All
Day 2 Mon approach clustering of the daunting task as we had almost
22
04 Oct huge amount of 450 slips on the wall and simply

1300 Hrs information present on thereading through them was going
wall? to take ages. So we thought of
some simple strategies to
uncomplicated things. They are :
1 Take a random slip to start
with and then think of the
closest factor we could have
related it to. Once we identified
then we asked the guy who
researched on it to search and
find out that factor from his flip
chart.
2 We went round the table and
asked each individual what was
the most important uncertainty
and then we brainstormed on
how that factor related to
culture, demographics, and
society. Once we had that
information it was a matter of
asking the respective person to
identify the chits which most
closely co related with the
information at hand.
3 During brainstorming we also
focused on what caused that
event and what event resulted
out of it. That way we got mini
links in our mind and we used
that during creating links within
the clusters.
Iteration-2 We did not know if the As we formed the clusters and All
Day 2 Mon clusters were named well? formed the links we also named
04 Oct it. However, we were aware of
1300-EOD the fact that the names don’t
Hrs necessarily need to be catchy
but brought out an idea of the
cluster as a whole. Effective
naming meant that we had to
spend less time later on going
through the clusters again and
again to find out what the cluster
was all about. In the first
iteration, we had named the
clusters based on Hollywood
movies. Although the ideas
23
clearly came out but it was

difficult for someone to make
sense who had not watched that
movie.
Iteration-2 We did not know whether We had almost 140 yellow’s on All
Day 2 Mon to completely exhaust the the wall and at the end of day
04 Oct yellow slips in cluster we had formed 7 clusters, still
1700 Hrs formation or not? we were left with around 40-45
yellow slips. We were finding it
very difficult to fit the ideas in
the existing clusters and adding
the remaining abstract ideas
into the existing clusters would
mean that we deviate from the
idea we wanted to project from
the cluster. We decided not to
add any idea onto the existing
cluster rather come back
tomorrow and spend an extra
hour in forming two additional
clusters and using up as much
of the ideas that is left on the
wall.
The next day we came in at
0900 Hrs and formed two more
clusters and used up another 20
ideas from the remaining
yellow’s.
Iteration-2 We did not know how to In iteration #1 we had a All
Day 3 Tue approach the ranking of facilitator to guide us through
05 Oct the matrices and come to but we still had some conflicts in
1000 Hrs an amicable ranking ? the ranking of the clusters. In
iteration 1 we resorted to voting
to resolve our differences. This
time around we wanted to avoid
that and come to an agreement
based to debate.
We drew the matrix up and
placed all the clusters on the
horizontal axis randomly. Then
each one of us gave our
feedback on how big an impact
that cluster would had made.
Once we were through with the
impact analysis we then
discussed on the predictability of
each cluster. We found that a lot
24
of clusters featured in the high

impact and low predictability
quadrant. So, to differentiate
between them we calibrated our
scale and then started to
compare those clusters with
each other to find out their
relative impact and
predictability. That way we were
able to divide the clusters
across various quadrants. We
chose the two which were there
in the bottom right corner of the
chart. We check for
independency and they were, so
that step was done and we
headed towards creating the
end states of the matrices.
Iteration-2 We did not know when to It was very important for us that All
Day 3 Tue approach George to we were on the right track as
05 Oct critique us on the work we correcting things mid way
0930 Hrs had done so far? invariably would have had a big
impact on our final deliverable.
We decided that cluster
formation was an important
stage of our work and any
redoing of work if at all
necessary would be best
catered at this time. So, we
agreed to call George and
Pranal went to his chamber to
ask him to come to our room
526. We also decided that we
would call George again just
before our ice berg analysis on
the Wednesday.
Iteration-2 We did not know how to On day 2 George looked at our All
Day 3 Tue incorporate and how much 11 clusters and gave us a few
05 Oct to incorporate George’s comments.
0930 Hrs comments on day 2, the 1 A few clusters were too large
Tuesday? and were revealing more than
one idea, so George asked us
to split them into two clusters.
2 He advised that we rename a
few cluster names that would
project the actual idea of that
cluster.
25
We had one of our clusters

which had 20 stickies on it so
we decided to split them into
two. However, we did not create
them again but marked them
with pens that they were
independent clusters. This
saved us the time redoing the
work.
We also renamed three of our
cluster names and that was
fairly quick and done within 5-10
minutes.
Iteration-2 How to approach the end Now that we had selected the All
Day 3 Tue states of the two selected two high impact and low
05 Oct clusters? predictable clusters, it was
1230 Hrs important that we defined the
characteristics of the end states.
So we all sat down and started
thinking what the end points
would look like and come out
with characteristics. Eg we had
in one of our clusters as Attitude
of US towards Nicaragua so on
one end we had a very
favorable attitude of US
characterized by debt relief, low
import duties, relaxed
immigration laws for
Nicaraguans etc and on the
other end point we had cold
shoulder of US towards Nicas
characterized by high interests
on debts and sanctions being
imposed on Nicaraguans.
Similarly we did with the other
axis.
Once we were done with that,
we had to name the two end
states. We all used internet to
come up with more creative
names which would have
projected the idea clearly to the
audience.
Then we had to name the four
scenarios characterized by the
two end points. We again had a
26
tough time with naming the

scenarios. We had multiple
names come up and choosing
one over the other was a difficult
task. We used our reasoning
skills to weigh the various
headings we had and finally
came up with four names for all
four scenarios.
Iteration-2 How do we approach Once we were done with the All
Day 3 Tue forming the stories? scenarios, our next task was to
05 Oct start making the stories. We
1530 Hrs agreed that we would make the
first story with the entire group
and then split up into two
groups. We split up into groups
of three with Rony, Rahul and
wendy in one group and Pranal,
Kaustubh and Ahmed in the
other. The story once formed
can then be critiqued by the
other group. Forming the stories
actually took a lot of time and by
1900 Hrs we were done with
three stories. We were mentally
exhausted and did not have the
strength to come up with the
final story.
We realized that we were quite
tired at that time and hence
went in for a half hour break.
Once we were back we
managed to get the ideas
together and formed the fourth
and the final story. By 2030Hrs
we were done with all the four
stories and decided to call it a
day.
Iteration-2 To we need George’s We were undecided whether to All
Day 3 Tue feedback after story ask George for feedback on the
05 Oct formation? stories we had done. Going
2030 Hrs back to clusters or end states at
that point of time would had
been disastrous for us and
would had set us back in time.
We however decided to get it
reviewed. We agreed that the
27
next morning 0900 Hrs we

would ask George to critique our
work. Pranal agreed to go to
George the next morning and
call him to our room.
Iteration-2 What did George George was kind enough to All
Day 4 Wed feedback on 5th Oct? come to our room on receiving
06 Oct our email that day. He was
1030 Hrs relatively happy with the work
we had done but also asked us
to look out on the following
things:
1 To keep the client in mind
while presenting
2 Not to mention anything about
the process as the end client is
least interested in it
3 To have Yin and Yang in our
scenarios to prevent a good-
good and bad-bad scenario.
4 The presentation should
arouse interest in the client and
he must feel that whatever
being presented is relevant to
him and to achieving the
millennium goals.
5 To highlight potential
difficulties that UNDP might face
while achieving its millennium
goals.
Iteration-2 How do we implement We decided that we would make All
Day 4 Wed George’s feedback? two implication matrices as the
06 Oct client would be most interested
1045 Hrs in it. The first matrix would have
the UNDP goals vs. the
scenarios and the second would
be the scenarios vs. the
implications matrix. We also
decided to spend additional time
in the iceberg analysis as they
would be the pivotal events in
the context of the story
Iteration-2 To confirm whether we Although on the very first day All
Day 4 Wed would be making a PPT or we decided to go with a PPT we
06 Oct a poster presentation? still kept the option wide open
1430 Hrs based on how we progressed
through the days. By
28
Wednesday evening 1430 Hrs

we were all through with the
stories, the feedback loops and
the icebergs. So, it was sure
that we had time to make a PPT
and present it. Rony asked all
for our consent for the PPT and
we all immediately agreed to it.
Iteration-2 How much time we would Initially we thought that there All
Day 4 Wed have for our PPT? won’t be any time limit on the
06 Oct presentation as we did not have
1450 Hrs any such restriction in our first
iteration. So we thought of
having all four stories and the
four icebergs in our PPT.
However, Rony was reading one
of the previous year’s
workbooks and in one page they
mentioned that George was
going to be pretty strict in terms
of the time limit of 15 minutes.
Iteration-2 What would be the We knew that getting all four

Day 4 Wed contents of our PPT? stories and the four icebergs in
06 Oct 15 minutes was impossible so
1440 Hrs we decided that we would select
a scenario which would be of
most interest to the UNDP in
achieving the millennium goals.
Once we had agreed that we
wanted to go with Scenario #3
Nicaragua Avanza hacia La
Izquierda it was a matter to
creating the relevant slides.
Getting such vital information at
the right time actually helped us
in preparing the PPT as now we
only had to create less number
of slides to make.
Iteration-2 How we are going to Creating the PPT meant we all All
Day 4 Wed manage creating the had to contribute towards it. So,
06 Oct PPT? firstly we found out what were
1435 Hrs the elements involved in
preparing the slide. We came up
with the following points:
1 creating the soft versions of
the stories which had almost 70
29
interrelated links in it.

2 Creating the soft versions of
the impact/predictability matrix,
end point characteristics, the
two clusters, scenario name
matrix, the scenario vs. MDG
matrix, ice berg analysis, the
scenario vs. implications matrix
and the final implications of the
scenario explained in the PPT.
3 Someone collating the data
and putting it into PPT format
4 Someone adding styles to the
final PPT.
Once we had the various to-do
list on the table we had to
allocate resources who would
manage his task.
Iteration-2 Allocating work for We assigned the role of collating All
Day 4 Wed preparing the PPT? the data into the PPT to Rahul.
06 Oct Ahmed had great skills in
1440 Hrs Microsoft word and PPT so he
was into creating the soft
versions of scenario matrices.
Rony and Kaustubh were
brainstorming on the implication
vs. scenario matrix and Pranal
and wendy agreed to copy the
storyline into Microsoft word.
Iteration-2 How to select on who and Once we were done with the Ahmed and
Day 4 Wed how many of us would be PPT making we had to decide Kaustubh
06 Oct presenting the PPT? on who would be giving the
1630 Hrs presentation. We thought that
we let everyone participate in
presentation. As Rony and
Rahul had already presented
the iteration #1 they encouraged
other members to take up the
presentation. Ahmed and
Kaustubh volunteered for the
task and all of us gave their
consent for it.
We thought that having too
many members in presentation
would distract the audience and
have an adverse effect on the
timelines. Moreover, we had a
30
lot of information to be delivered

so it was important that we had
limited people doing the
presentation. So, we agreed
that we will limit the number of
persons doing the presentation
to two.
Iteration-2 How Kaustubh and We allowed them about 30 Kaustubh
Day 4 Wed Ahmed were going to minutes of time to decide on and Ahmed
06 Oct approach the what parts they would be
1645 Hrs presentation? presenting. Ahmed volunteered
to take up the initial part and
Kaustubh took up the story, ice
berg and the implication
matrices.
At around 1715 Hrs both of
them had gone through the
PPT.
We decided that they rehearse
the presentation with time
limitations. We performed one
rehearsal. We observed that
Kaustubh’s part required a lot of
explanation and hence we
allotted him 10 minutes and
Ahmed had to complete his part
in 5. In the first rehearsal, both
of them took around 17 minutes
with a 7 + 10 split. We
requested Ahmed to cut down
on his part so that we meet our
target of 15 minutes. Ahmed
had to leave early that day as
there were some engineering
works being done his railway
track to home. He however,
agreed to practice at home and
restrict himself within 5 minutes.
Even Kaustubh assured that he
would rehearse at home and be
within 10 minutes.
Iteration-2 Whether we needed We agreed that we needed All
Day 4 Wed another rehearsal before another rehearsal on Thursday
06 Oct the Thursday’s morning. Fact that we were
1700 Hrs presentation? starting at 0930 meant that we
can get through another timed
rehearsal from 0900-0930. We
31
all agreed to gather at room 526

at 0900 Hrs on Thursday. We
also asked Kaustubh and
Ahmed to ask for help in case
they are stuck at any point of
time during the preparation that
very night.
Iteration-2 Deciding on the dress We all agreed to come in All
Day 4 Wed code during the formals not necessarily suits
06 Oct presentation? and ties but in business formals
1710 Hrs such as shirts, trousers and
formal shoes. Wendy was also
asked to come in business
formals. We agreed on this to
make us look like a team.
Iteration-2 How to go about editing We were all very tired at the end Rahul and
Day 4 Wed minor mistakes in the of the day, however on Pranal
06 Oct PPT? reviewing we found out a few
1720 Hrs bugs in the story line and a few
mis-spelt words. Rahul agreed
to correct some of them and
then later Pranal agreed to add
some special effects to the
slides later that night. We all
agreed that we would maintain
versioning of the PPT and
mention in the email what
exactly we had changed in this
version. Pranal had to complete
the PPT and send it to us later
that night and that very PPT was
going to be used the very next
day for presentation.
Iteration-2 How did the timed We conducted a timed rehearsal All
Day 4 Thu rehearsal go ? of the PPT at 0905 hrs. We
06 Oct timed Ahmed and Kaustubh
0905 Hrs individually too. Ahmed took
around 05:37 minutes and
Kaustubh another 10:30
minutes. We were still going
over the clock by one minute.
We again asked Ahmed to hurry
up a little with his slides so that
we could handover to Kaustubh
at 05:00 minutes.
We also provided our feedback
that we cut down on the material
32
to be presented a little bit as the

pace was a little too fast and it
would have had a adverse effect
on the comprehension of the
client or our class.
Iteration-2 If we were given a chance Presenting at the beginning All
Day 4 Thu to select our order of meant that we were directly
06 Oct presentation, do we heading from the timed
0920 Hrs present at beginning or rehearsal to the class. We would
later? have done with our presentation
in no time and spend the rest of
the time in listening to other
presentation. However, if we
present last we got the
opportunity to take inputs from
others presentation and
incorporating them into ours. It
was a tough decision but we all
agreed to go at the beginning if
given a chance to select the
order.
Iteration-2 Do we need anyone We thought that it would be All
Day 4 Thu showing us time in useful if anyone captured the
06 Oct between the time taken and informed our
0945 Hrs presentation? presenters. We agreed that
Wendy would display us the
time at 0400 and 1400 minutes
but later on we found that
George is actually showing us
the time so dropped the idea.
Iteration-2 George’s Feedback on After the presentation George N/A
Day 4 Thu our Presentation provided his feedback on our
06 Oct presentation. They were:
1300 Hrs 1 To keep the client in mind
while presenting.
2 To have an agenda to start in
the presentation
3 To clearly bring out how the
implications are relevant for
UNDP for achievement of the
millennium goals.
Iteration-2 How to plan for the George suggested that we All
Day 5 Thu reflection of EIBE and prepare a PPT on what we have
07 Oct Learning manager? learnt in our EIBE and Learning
1430 Hrs manager classes and present it
on Friday. Although less taxing
the task had still to be done and
33
PPT prepared. We agreed to

call it a day on Thursday and
come to business school on
Friday morning at 0930 Hrs.
Two and a half hours were more
than sufficient for us to
brainstorm and summarize the
points in the PPT.
Iteration-2 Who was going to present In our group four of us had Wendy and
Day 6 Fri the reflections already been involved in Pranal
08 Oct presentation on the presentations and we wanted all
1030 Hrs Friday? of us to feel that they were a
part of our group so we
encouraged Pranal and Wendy
to go ahead with the
presentation. The content was
relatively straight forward but we
still insisted that we go through
a timed rehearsal of the
presentation. Rahul helped
Pranal and Wendy explaining
the points on the PPT. Once
both of them had gone through
with the points they did a
rehearsal. It was within the 12
minutes allotted. By the time we
were done with the presentation
rehearsal it was almost 12PM
and we had to head
towards the class.
Iteration-2 How to distribute the work We all agreed to meet up on the All
Day 7 Sat and complete the work Saturday at 12 PM at room 526
09 Oct book in time for the in the business school. Although
1030 Hrs Monday submission? we all had the points noted
somewhere in our notebooks,
they had to be put in the work
book and the work book had to
be reviewed for errors. At
around noon we all met and
identified what all was required
to complete the workbook. The
entire work was distributed
amongst the six of us and we all
started working on our individual
work till 445PM. At 1645 Hrs we
realized that we had to leave the
room as the business school
34
was to close at 1645 Hrs. We

were still quite behind in terms
of completing the workbook. We
then decided that we head
towards the library and complete
the work. We went to the
discussions room in the library
and settled ourselves at one
corner of the discussions room.
In the library two of us were not
able to connect to the wireless
network which made our work
somewhat disruptive. At around
1830 Hrs Ahmed and Rahul
agreed to head back home.
Before leaving we all agreed to
complete three things before
meeting again on the Sunday at
1000 at room 526, SBS. They
were :
1 To note down all the links
that’s have been used for our
research
2 To provide a write up on the
self reflection of iteration #2
3 Also to bring some notes on
our research which would be
helpful in filling up of the
workbook.
Iteration-2 What did we learn from Learnt how to work with a team All
Day 6 Sat EIBE the subject? of people coming from different
08 Oct industries and cultures having
diverse experiences
Taking up a problem statement

without prior knowledge about
the same does not mean you
will not be able to do it. Your
success largely depends on the
group of people you are working
with and the group dynamics
within the team.
Level of learning – Absorbed

humungous loads of information
in a very small period of time.
35
Progressed on the learning

curve.
Learnt to manage time
efficiently.
Delegation of responsibility
based on our skill sets
Emotional Resilience
Learnt the art of analyzing an

issue in depth to find underlying
root causalities in the structural
levels by using the ‘Iceberg’
methodology.
Importance of focusing on the

requirements and interests of
the client and working as a team
towards the end goal
Benefits of team work
Importance of personal relations

within the team and creating a
comfortable environment where
everyone can bring their ideas
forward without any inhibitions.
Being creative – e.g., PPT

making
Importance of paraphrasing
Effective utilization of collective

talent
Finding the right answers by

asking the right questions
Intuitive decision making
Importance of check points and

continuous reviews.
Importance of expert guidance
Proper Synthesis of available

36
resources.
Conflict management - Chose

Debate over Vote
Iteration-2 What did we learn from Thought about the group All
Day 6 Sat the course- Learning dynamics in a structured
08 Oct manager? manner.
Set some ground rules,

appointed a facilitator and then
left it up to the person appointed
to make sure that rules are
being followed. Helped
effectively curb conflicts.
Set apart time to analyze and

plan for the project. Made it
easier to reach the end goal
with minimum mistakes.
While dealing with the group, we

developed the art of self-control
and this helped curbed the
aggressive side in us.
We tried to debate using logic

rather than convince using
pressure.
Helped understand the

intricacies of behavioral patterns
like being an activist or theorist
and how constructive or
destructive this can be for the
team.
Increased awareness of our

strengths and weaknesses
Developed the skill of

influencing people
Being reflective – visualized the

macro picture rather than a
microscopic view
Recognized the ‘push’ and ‘pull’

37
techniques and developed skills

to harness and balance a mix of
these in the team.
Realized the importance of

maintaining a personal dossier.
Recognized issues in group

work like free-loading and
miscommunication and learnt
the art of tackling the same.
Learnt the importance of

synthesizing information when
facilitating
Equal opportunity for the entire

team to contribute.
3. POINTS OF CRITICAL REFLECTION
AHMED
Getting into Iteration – II seemed less intimidating than iteration – I in the sense that
now I had more knowledge of the procedure, I actually knew which country we were
going to work on and I had full confidence in the group of people I was working with.
But, on the other hand it seemed much more scary because we had only three days
and seemed like that we had a weeks work on our hands. But now when I look back at
those three days, I think they were definitely one of the most educational three days,
not just for me but also for the entire team. The whole concept of scenario planning and
thinking about the implications of an event or probable futures has somewhat started to
grow on me. I have actually started thinking about what will happen, how will it happen
and what should I do right now to achieve a contented outcome in the near future.
Listening to stories of some other groups’ dynamics I think we worked together
exceptionally well. Most of the people in our group were neither aggressive enough to
be considered as rude nor were they submissive enough to be pushed around without
reason. Overall our group had very healthy, enjoyable and productive group dynamics.
Working together in this course has definitely brought me closer to working in teams
when I get back to the professional world.
RAHUL
This was the first time we were working together in a group and for the first time we
realized the importance of group dynamics. We feel that whatever we learnt in Learning
38
manager we could have applied the same in our EIBE course. It was an enriching
experience and the fact that we had a great team also helped us a lot. We were able to
channelize our energies towards achieving our final objective. I also feel that this
course enhanced our thought process and I now feel that I take a different approach in
way i think and approach problems in my daily life. We realized that to get the
maximum out of the group it was very important to set up good personal relations with
each other. The time which we initially spent knowing each other was a time well
invested and we cashed in on those good personal relations later on in the next two
weeks.
WENDY
During the 2nd iteration, it was totally different from the 1 st one since the scope is much
more bigger. We were stunned in front of the wall of yellow and pink post-its. But things
will work out eventually.
Planning in advance is absolutely the most important thing in 2 nd iteration. Since we
had limited time to finish the process, it was important to check the time allotted in each
step to make sure we were on the track instead of spending too much time figuring out
what should we do. Also, taking both internal and external factors into concern when
developing scenarios is a good learning. We should look for a broader image, not just
see things in detail. Recognizing the casual effects is also a lesson learned after
creating clusters/stories/icebergs.
During this week, our team had a healthy communication. Each of us got the chance to
express themselves. We learnt to listen and think when everyone held diverse
opinions. Although time squeezed, we still took time relaxing and building relationships
as a team.
We know how to cope with complexity after all these processes. At the same time, we
really enjoy the team this week.
PRANAL
Taking ahead the learning from iteration 1, as we start work on iteration 2 with
humongous data, we realized that it is more difficult to work with too much information
as getting the right stuff is very critical and important. However, collective team effort, as
learned during the exercise, made the task easier by synthesizing the information after
splitting the country information in different areas. One of the crucial aspects of
attaining the effective outcome is to keep in mind the client and his expectations. This
exercise taught me to present the very precise and to the point information in front of
client, in which he is interested. Woking on the very ambitious timelines, we have
realised that without proper timetable and tracking of work Vs timeline, attainment of
goal in stipulated time is very difficult.
One of the very basic learning out of this exercise was to form the efficient team while
working on any problem. Taking small breaks, going out with the team even in very
tough timeline, helps team members to know each other well, which in turn spread the
positive energy in the team. Voting should not be the first point anytime in decision
39
making instead always have the critical discussion among team to derive the final
outcome. Added to this, always have the “Iceberg” analysis in every situation, so as not
to overlook the root cause of the issue. I think that it is very helpful to keep the EIBE
sessions at the very start of MBA program as the learning out of these sessions and
exercise will definitely help me throughout the program and even after graduation.
RONY
The feedback from our presentation in iteration 1 clearly showed that we overlooked
the subtle differences between creating a professional presentation meant for a client
and creating a presentation meant for a classroom. Once this was clear to us, it was
slightly easier for us to plan our tasks and spilt-ups for iteration 2. All of us were very
much aware of the ‘elephant in the room’ - the overwhelming task at hand of dissecting
the selected country’s political and economic dynamics and analyzing the underlying
factors behind UNDP’s interest in the same.
We were lucky to have a team with very commendable group dynamics. We started off
the exercise by debating on the country to choose for the analysis. After a very
interactive discussion which involved the pros and cons of all the countries in the
Central American region, we unanimously decided to go ahead with Nicaragua, the
poorest country of them all. The decision was also triggered by the fact that none of us
knew much about the country and wanted to study about the country in detail.
Reading and analyzing on Nicaragua was painful at several levels as the country was
predominantly poor and several fields like technology and legislation had little roles to
play in the dynamics of its political working. Our first day of work was overwhelming as
the task of clustering about 140 uncertainties was a hard target to achieve. The team
made it through in spite of the complexities of the process and we realized that we
were indeed lucky to have validated and named the clusters since many of the teams
were still scrambling with their uncertainties on flip charts.
The final piece to the puzzle unraveled in the form of Dr. George Burt, who in his low,
yet convincing tone showed us how observing each of the clusters with a helicopter’s
view could make a difference. We went on to refine our clusters into further
independent themes and finally came up with twelve clusters that were independent of
each other. Ranking the clusters was as overwhelming as clustering them and we
debated over the impact and predictability of each of them before finalizing on the two
that were in the high impact and low predictability zones. This was another learning
from iteration 1, debating over voting.
The rest of the process seemed smooth and we were on schedule, and were logically
able to come up with factual scenarios that were directed towards economic and
political assumptions. Our presentation was appreciated by George and the class in
general and many of our fellow classmates congratulated us on a wonderful
presentation with actual facts about Nicaragua.
40
I have thoroughly enjoyed the intense exercises and realize that although the process
of scenario planning is primarily meant for business management, my experiences of
mapping out matrices would help make quick and vital decisions when required.
KAUSTUBH
My learning from Iteration 2 was simple and precise. I have learnt to look at a problem
from a Macro view. The most important facet of planning and scenario building is to
always keep the end goal in mind. The client has to be always kept in mind and at every
step, a critical question has to be asked to oneself-Would the client have any use of this
information or is this redundant to his need. Asking this question to myself repeatedly
will eventually imbibe in me the importance of keeping the needs and requirements of a
client. This learning will help me become a good Business Consultant which is what my
aim is-to be a “good” Business Consultant.
This exercise also taught me the importance of team building and not forgetting to have
fun in ample doses between hard work. The long hours we put in this project including
staying up late and getting up early for 2 consecutive weekends gave me a glimpse of
how a Business Consultant’s life can be. So I realized that it’s important to unwind and
take breaks. I am certain to retain the learning from EIBE throughout the MBA program
and use it in real world scenarios after I graduate.
41
4. RESEARCH
Nicaragua is a country overwhelmed by its history. Since colonial times, Nicaragua

has suffered from political instability, civil war, poverty, foreign intervention, and
natural disasters. Successive governments have been unable to bring political
stability or significant economic growth to the country. Personal and foreign special
interests have generally prevailed over national interests, and repeated foreign
intervention in Nicaraguan political and economic affairs has resulted in nationalistic
reactions and a legacy of suspicion of foreign governments and their motives.
The Pacific coast of Nicaragua was settled as a Spanish colony from Panama in the
early 16th century. Independence from Spain was declared in 1821 and the country
became an independent republic in 1838. Britain occupied the Caribbean Coast in
the first half of the 19th century, but gradually ceded control of the region in
subsequent decades. Violent opposition to governmental manipulation and corruption
spread to all classes by 1978 and resulted in a short-lived civil war that brought the
Marxist Sandinista guerrillas to power in 1979. Nicaraguan aid to leftist rebels in El
Salvador caused the US to sponsor anti-Sandinista contra guerrillas through much of
the 1980s. Free elections in 1990, 1996, and 2001, saw the Sandinistas defeated,
but voting in 2006 announced the return of former Sandinista President Daniel
Ortega. The 2008 municipal elections were characterized by widespread
irregularities. Nicaragua's infrastructure and economy - hard hit by the earlier civil war
and by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 - are slowly being rebuilt, but democratic institutions
face new challenges under the ORTEGA administration
Nicaragua borders both the Caribbean Sea and the North Pacific Ocean, between
Costa Rica and Honduras.
Since the 1950s, Nicaragua has had a persistently high rate of population increase
and rapid urban growth, both of which were expected to continue into the twenty-first
century. Currently the country’s population stands roughly around 6 million.
In social terms, the country is split into two zones: the economic and political
heartland of the west, encompassing the Pacific lowlands and the central highlands;
and the sparsely settled east or Caribbean lowlands. The west, containing the major
urban centers, is populated by Spanish-speaking whites and mestizos The east,
historically remote from the centers of political and economic decision making on the
other side of the mountains, includes a sizable indigenous and Creole population that
has never identified with the nation or participated in national affairs.
Nicaraguan constitutions have provided for a secular state and guaranteed freedom
of religion since 1939, but the Roman Catholic Church has retained a special status
in Nicaraguan society
According to the CIA World Factbook, Nicaragua has a population of 5,675,356.

Mestizos and Whites make up the majority (86%) of the population of Nicaragua with
approx. 69% Mestizos and 17% White. The remainder of the Nicaraguan population
42
is 9% black, and 5% Amerindian. Nicaraguan demographics reflected a different

composition prior to the Sandinista revolution of 1979 since most of the migration
during the years that followed were primarily of upper or middle class Nicaraguans
which were primarily made up of whites. A growing number of these expats have
been returning after, though a vast majority remains living abroad for the most part.
The most populous city in the country is the capital city, Managua, with a population
of 1.2 million (2005). As of 2005, over 4.4 million inhabitants live in the Pacific,
Central and North regions, 2.7 in the Pacific region alone, while inhabitants in the
Caribbean region only reach an estimated 700,000.[2]
The Census Bureau in Nicaragua is the National Institute of Statistics and Census
(INEC). The institution is in charge of completing censuses and surveys. INEC ran its
first census in 1906, the last census was taken in 2005, it was the eighth to date.
According to the 2005 census, 443,847 inhabitants declared themselves Amerindian

(Indigenous). Over 50% of the population lived in rural areas. With 120,817
inhabitants declaring themselves Miskito, they make up 27.2% of the total Indigenous
population, followed by the Caribbean Coast mestizos. In addition to the inhabitants
who declared themselves Indigenous, approximately 13,640 answered "Other"
totaling 3.1%. Another 47,473 responded "Not Sure" and an additional 19,460
responded "Ignore", totaling 15.1%
Relative to its overall population, Nicaragua has never experienced any large scale
wave of immigrants. The total number of immigrants to Nicaragua, both originating
from other Latin American countries and all other countries, never surpassed 1% of
its total population prior to 1995. The 2005 census showed the foreign-born
population at 1.2%, having risen a mere .06% in 10 years.[2] This is not to say that
immigrants were not important to the evolution of Nicaraguan society and the
Nicaraguan nation.
During the Nicaraguan Revolution and the Civil War, thousands of Nicaraguans left
the country. After the 1990 Nicaraguan Elections some people returned, but many
more emigrated during the rest of the decade. In 1998, the Hurricane Mitch killed
almost 4,000 people in the country and destroyed much of the Nicaraguan Economy,
as a result thousands of Nicaraguans received the TPS for emigrate to the United
States as "refugees".[3] In recent years, many Nicaraguans had left the country to
escape to the poverty and unemployment.
Nicaraguan emigration is a recent process. During the 1990-2004 period, more than
800,000 Nicaraguans left the country, compared to 100,000 during the 1970-1989
period.[4] According to the World Bank, in 2005 there were 683,520 Nicaraguans
living outside Nicaragua legally. If illegals are counted, some sources cite as many as
1,500,000 Nicaraguans living abroad by the end of 2005.[5] Nicaraguans are the third
largest community of Central Americans living abroad, after Guatemalans and
Salvadorans. Nicaragua is also the second country in Central America by percentage
of population living abroad.
43
Remittances to Nicaragua represent about 15% of the country's GDP.[6] In 2008

Nicaragua received close to one billion dollars in remittances; an increase from the
$750,000,000 received in 2007, according to the World Bank[7]
The most populous city in Nicaragua is the capital city, Managua, with a population of
1.2 million (2005). As of 2005, over 4.4 million inhabitants live in the Pacific, Central
and North regions, 2.7 in the Pacific region alone, while inhabitants in the Caribbean
region only reach an estimated 700,000.[2]
According to the UN, Nicaragua has a population of 5,743,000 (2009 estimate) with a
population growth rate of 1.31% and a birth rate of 24.9/1,000 population, third
highest in the region. The life expectancy for Nicaraguans at birth is 72.90 years;
69.99 for males and 76.00 for females. Nicaragua is the second country in Central
America by immigrant’s expulsion, 210,000 during the period 2005-2010, lower only
than that of Guatemala
As both the largest country in Central America and the least populated, Nicaragua
has the opportunity to enforce environmental protection and conserve a relatively
large mount of natural resources. However, a variety of forces are driving
deforestation and rapidly increasing pollution. The conversion of forests to
agricultural land (for commercial agriculture and cattle pastures) and substantial
logging with little or no government regulation are having a severe environmental
impact. In general, ecological concerns can be concentrated into four main areas:
land rights, water access, deforestation and pesticide use.
Nicaragua's major environmental problems are soil erosion, caused in part by

cultivation of annual crops on steep slopes, and depletion of upland pine forests for
lumber, fuel, and human settlement. The nation lost an average of 2.5% of its forest
and woodland each year between 1990 and 1995. One contributing factor is the use
of wood for fuel. Excessive or ineffective use of pesticides to control malaria, along
with widespread agricultural use, has resulted in some environmental contamination.
Nicaragua's cities produce about 0.5 million tons of solid waste per year. Industrial
pollutants have contaminated the lakes and rivers. The nation has 190 cu km of
renewable water resource, with 84% used for farming and 2% in industrial activity. As
of 2000, 91% of Nicaragua's city dwellers and 59% of its rural population have
access to safe drinking water. Dumping of sewage and chemical wastes has made
Lake Managua unsuitable for swimming, fishing, or drinking. Primary responsibility for
resource conservation is vested in the Nicaraguan Institute of Natural Resources and
Environment (Instituto Nicaragüense de Recursos Naturales y del Ambiente—
IRENA), established in October 1979.
In 2001, four of the nation's mammal species were endangered, as were three bird
species and 29 plant species. Endangered or extinct species in Nicaragua include
the tundra peregrine falcon, four species of turtle (green sea, hawksbill, leatherback,
and olive ridley), the spectacled caiman, and the American crocodile.
44
Understanding the political environment of a country like Nicaragua had to start with
understanding the history of the nation. So I went right back to the time when
Nicaragua was a Spanish colony and studied the country’s bloody and highly
intriguing story.
Nicaragua’s complex relationship and over dependence on US has its roots in the
U.S. occupation of Nicaragua from 1912 to 1933. U.S. motives included differences
over the proposed Nicaragua Canal, Nicaragua's potential as a destabilizing
influence in the region, and President Zelaya's attempts to regulate foreign access to
Nicaraguan natural resources. From 1927 until 1933, Gen. Augusto César Sandino
led a sustained guerrilla war first against U.S. Marines and eventually forced them to
compromise and leave. Then rose the Somoza Dictatorship which ruled Nicaragua
from 1936 to 1979. The Somoza’s ruled Nicaragua with an iron fist and an eventual
revolution led by the current President Daniel Ortega brought about Constitutional
Democracy.
Understanding the implications of the political strife that the Nicaraguans have
undergone helped me realize the importance of a constitutional democracy and
friendly relationship with US for Nicaragua and the entire Central American Region.
As a part of studying the Political Environment of Nicaragua, it was important to study
the Business and Trade agreements of Nicaragua and its foreign policy regarding
US, Central American countries and its “new allies”- China and Russia.
Nicaragua is a country which is walking a tight rope between capitalism and

socialism. Daniel Ortega’s personal political ideology is predominantly leftist, but
leftist policy implementation has been kept in check by the US involvement in
Nicaraguan politics. However, new strategic relationships with China and Russia may
have an adverse impact on Nicaraguan-US relationship and may give Daniel Ortega
political support to turn Nicaragua into a part of the leftist block.
My research led me to another highly controversial topic-The Nicaragua Canal.

Originally Nicaragua had the backing of US for a canal to be built through it. A canal
in this region had become a necessity for the growing sea trade economies. In the
eleventh hour, Panama was chosen over Nicaragua as the final site for the
construction of the canal, as US was concerned about the active volcanoes which
pepper the landscape of Nicaragua. Speculation on a new canal continues even
today and the steady increase in world shipping, together with the possibility of
establishing shorter shipping routes, may make this a viable project. If this project
does materialize, it will transform Nicaragua into the richest nations of Central
America. But this project will take roughly US$25 billion, 25 times Nicaragua's annual
budget and about 25 years to construct. Construction of the canal will have a
devastating impact of the ecology of the region and this is one of the major reasons
why legislation about the construction is being opposed.
To get the knowledge about the legal and judicial system of Nicaragua, it is very
necessary to look into the political system as well. In this country the judicial system
45
is very much influenced with the political system and leaders. As the political system
is corrupt majorly, it has a very negative impact on the legal system of the country.
Because of this most of the rights provided to the common people/organizations of
the country are suppressed very frequently and regularly.
Nicaragua’s judicial system generally respected many of its citizens' human rights,
however, serious problems remained prevalent in some area such as : security
forces committed extrajudicial killings, Police continued to beat and otherwise abuse
detainees, torture by authorities, prison & police holding cells are harsh &
overcrowded, decision making at court is subject at times to political influence and
corruption, Violence & discrimination against women, child labor & child prostitution
etc.
The labor law in country has restricted the child under age of 14 to work; however the
Ministry of labor, which has the responsibility of enforcing labor laws, rarely
prosecutes violations of the minimum-age regulation. So young street vendors or
windshield cleaners are a common sight in Nicaragua for child labor. Along with this
children frequently work on family farms at a young age. A National Minimum Wage
Commission establishes minimum wages for different sectors of the economy,
However enforcement of the minimum wage is lax and many workers are paid less
than the law allows. Labor groups have argued that the minimum wage is inadequate
to feed a family of four, which in turn force each member of the family, including
children, to earn the livelihood themselves.
Nicaragua had signed a free trade agreement with most of the southern American
nations. This system allows both the entry of merchandise into the national customs
territory, and the local purchase of goods or raw material without paying any kind of
taxes or duties. This has provided the opportunity to local farmers to grow
commercial crop, so that more profit can be generated. To lure the international
industries, the country has provided the best mean of transport, road transport, to the
outside organization. However on the other side this has the negative impact
considering the fuel prices in country. Nicaraguan’s organizational law does not
provide the liberty to foreigner to get the license for media and television
broadcasting. This is totally preserved for the Nicaraguans.
The law system at Supreme Court is very ineffective and highly influenced by the
politics. Because of the corruption and in-transparency decision making process is
time consuming. Looking at this, the local people have less faith in the court system.
Poor enforcement of property rights deters both foreign and domestic investment,
especially in real estate development and tourism. Conflicting claims and weak
enforcement of property rights has invited property disputes and litigation.
46
Nicaraguan Industry and Export/Import to neighboring countries
 After having one of the fastest growing economies in the region in the 50s and
60s, by the mid-90s it had become the country with the slowest economic
growth and one of the most indebted and economically unstable in the world.
Half of the population lived in poverty, with a fifth in extreme poverty.
 Industrial activity in Nicaragua has never progressed much beyond the stage
of light manufacture. Since 1997, influx of Foreign direct investment (FDI)
inflows which were concentrated in mobile telecommunications, maquila
operations and tourism projects
 There are over 100 companies operating in Nicaragua with some relation to a
U.S. company, either as wholly or partly-owned subsidiaries, franchisees, or
exclusive distributors of U.S. products. The largest are in energy, financial
services, textiles/apparel, manufacturing, and fisheries.
 Maquila (offshore assembly for re-export) production has expanded rapidly,

taking advantage of extremely cheap labour costs. The maquila industry is
shifting away from an exclusive emphasis on garments to other sectors such
as cotton fabric for use in maquila plants, shoes, aluminium and electrical
wiring for cars. Maquila plants are increasingly located in the interior of the
country.
 Among the Central American countries, El Salvador is Nicaraguas most

important trading partner, followed by Honduras. In 2007 Nicaragua exported
14% of its exports to El Salvador and bought 4% of its imports from there.
 According to ECLAC estimates, the Nicaraguan economy posted 1.5%

negative GDP growth in 2009 after 15 years of uninterrupted expansion and
compared with 3.2% positive growth in 2008.
 The Nicaraguan economy felt the toll of the international financial crisis and,
particularly, of the recession in the United States in 2009. The primary
transmission channels were weaker external demand, a decrease in the flow
of remittances and shrinking foreign direct investment (FDI). The economic
downturn was more acute during the first half of the year; the decline of the
monthly economic activity indicator slowed in the second semester.
 In 2009, the first meetings were held to negotiate a free trade agreement with
Chile. Meanwhile, negotiations on an association agreement between Central
47
America and the European Union were suspended after seven rounds of talks,
pending resolution of the crisis in Honduras.
 Macroeconomic management under the Ortega Administration has remained

broadly favourable. Yet, a succession of external shocks including the
Hurricane Felix, high food prices, and the financial crisis had an impact on
Nicaragua’s macro aggregates.
 Recent indicators suggest that economic activity is starting to turn around. The
economic recovery in United States is particularly relevant in the Nicaraguan
context as 30% of Nicaraguan exports are directed to the United States (the
main export market) and workers’ remittances (mainly from the United States
and Costa Rica) represent more than 13% of GDP.
 There are still great challenges to be met in net primary school enrolment,
chronic malnutrition, access to water and illiteracy, but the new administration
has committed to focusing on these problems to ensure that they are also
resolved.
 Although the Ortega administration has a clear vision of the country’s

development priorities, its policies have been limited by external factors such
as the effects of the global financial crisis, which are having a direct impact on
the availability of financial resources and the provision of new credits in the
national financial system, the decrease in shipments, a loss of jobs in the duty
free sector and decreased affluence in the tourism sector, as well as the
imminent threat of a drop in exports due to lower demand for certain products
in the country’s main markets.
 The World Bank executes certain projects in Nicaragua to help the economy to
recover from its dependence on its international partnerships. Some of the
projects that were stared a few years back have been detrimental in increasing
economic developments in the country. They are:
1. Rural Electrification Project for Development outside the Central Grid: The
main objective is to support the Government in providing sustainable
electricity services and other social and economic benefits associated with
these services in selected rural areas of Nicaragua, as well as to
strengthen the Government’s institutional capacity to execute its rural
electrification strategy.
48
2. Second Agricultural Technology Project: The main objective is to provide

rural households and communities with broader access to sustainable
agricultural, forestry and natural resource management services and
innovations, thereby stimulating higher agricultural productivity.
3. Nicaragua Rural Telecom Project: The main objective is to increase access

to, and reduce costs of telecommunications services in rural areas of
Nicaragua, expanding the infrastructure, and supporting private-sector
operators who will be responsible for installing, operating, and maintaining
the new telecommunications systems on a commercial basis.
 The private use of e-mail and the internet remains low relative to the high
costs of the service relative to local incomes. There were fewer than three
Internet users per 100 inhabitants in 2007 (compared with six per 100
inhabitants in Honduras, 11 per 100 in El Salvador and 34 per 100 in Costa
Rica).
 Almost all installed telecommunications capacity uses digital technology,

owing to investments since privatization of the formerly state-owned telecoms
company, the Empresa Nicaragüense de Telecomunicaciones (Enitel). In
February 2004 América Móvil, the mobile-phone arm of Telmex of Mexico,
purchased the 40% share belonging to a Honduran firm, Megatel, and thus
gained complete control of Enitel. América is rapidly expanding both fixed and
mobile services.
 Coverage of fixed telephony is among the lowest in Central America at 4.4

lines per 100 inhabitants in 2007. Cellular coverage far outstrips fixed-line
telephony with 38 phones per 100 inhabitants in circulation.
 Regardless of the fast development, the absolute number of the information

network users is still in relatively low level in Nicaragua. The users are clearly
concentrated to the biggest cities, whereas the rural and marginal areas lack
of telecommunications infrastructure and even the basic infrastructure of the
electrical lines and water delivery systems. There are, though, great
necessities to enter to the Internet world in many areas outside the high
populated centres.
 The fastest growth rate is seen in cellular networks, since there is clear lack of
fixed line telecommunications infrastructure in Nicaragua. There are places in
Nicaragua without any telecommunications infrastructure, which gives
challenges in offering the Internet services. In these cases, the only option
49
might be the satellite connection, which results higher operating costs and
thus more expensive prices for the customers compared to the normal
solutions e.g. via cable modem.
 If there were more means to use the Internet services, the tourism and local
business would most probably develop. For the tourists, there are excellent
places for spending the vacations in Nicaragua, but in many cases, there is
not yet adequate infrastructure of telecommunications, power lines or water
tubes constructed.
5. IDENTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTIES
50
Areas of investigation Uncertainties
Society 1. Population growth rate
Society 2. Extent of urbanization
Society 3. Ratio of birth rate to death rate
Society 4. Extent of migration rate
Society 5. Attitude towards women in the family and in workplace

(male : female ratio)
Education 6. Change in literacy rate and its affect
Education 7. Free mandatory primary education
Education 8. Capability of education department
Education 9. Quality of education in the rural areas
Education 10. Government support for female education
Education 11. The number of people who are educated in the society
Society 12. Expatriate community settled in Nicaragua
Society 13. Population below poverty line
Society 14. Government schemes to help the poor
Society 15. Government programs to help the poor in terms of

providing food
Society 16. Economic composition of the society
Society 17. Level of division of society into rich & poor
Society 18. Social and cultural division
Society 19. Extent of slave work
Society 20. Extent of employment black marketing
Society 21. Diversity of employment offered to locals

51
Society 22. Proportion of population in the working class group
Religion 23. Impact of religion on society
Religion 24. Level of impact of religious groups on politics
Religion 25. Cultural and religion based division
Ethics 26. Representation of all ethnic communities in power

structures
Ethics 27. Level of discrimination in the society
Ethics 28. Level of support for harnessing the indigenous way of

life
Politics / Trade / 29. Credibility of the Central Bank of Nicaragua (impact or

Policy effect)
Politics / Trade / 30. Government access to Domestic Public Debt

Policy
Politics / Trade / 31. Continuity of Constitutional Democracy
Policy
Politics / Trade / 32. Continuity of Constitutional Rights
Policy
Politics / Trade / 33. The right to form and join Trade Unions
Policy
Politics / Trade / 34. Sustaining the "Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility"
Policy plan
Politics / Trade / 35. Maintaining the US-Central America Free Trade

Policy Agreement
Politics / Trade / 36. Support and aid to Foreign Radical Regimes

Policy
Politics / Trade / 37. Enforcement of Stringent Property Rights
Policy
Politics / Trade / 38. Political Influence on the Judiciary
Policy
Politics / Trade / 39. Territorial Disputes with Neighbors
Policy
Politics / Trade / 40. Maintaining friendly relations with US
Policy
Politics / Trade / 41. Maintaining free Trade Zones

52
Policy
Politics / Trade / 42. Government Investment in local Human Capital
Policy
Politics / Trade / 43. Promotion of Foreign Investment Laws
Policy
Politics / Trade / 44. Future of Soviet weapons Arsenal
Policy
Religion 45. Maintaining Religious Freedom
Politics / Trade / 46. Diversification of Trade and Cooperative Partnerships

Policy
Politics / Trade / 47. Participation in Central American Integration System
Policy (SICA)
Politics / Trade / 48. Regional Cooperation regarding the Common Credit

Policy Fund
Politics / Trade / 49. Bilateral relations with BRAZIL

Policy
Politics / Trade / 50. Bilateral relations with RUSSIA
Policy
Politics / Trade / 51. Bilateral relations with IRAN
Policy
Politics / Trade / 52. Bilateral relations with CHINA
Policy
Politics / Trade / 53. State's role in Redistribution of Income
Policy
Politics / Trade / 54. Innovative Development finance initiatives like the
Policy PETROCARIBE
Politics / Trade / 55. Threat of a W-Shaped Recession

Policy
Politics / Trade / 56. Future Role of Bolivarian Alliance for the Americans-
Policy ALBA
Politics / Trade / 57. Impact of new common Currency-SUCRE

Policy
Politics / Trade / 58. Legislation in favor of Nicaragua Canal
Policy
Politics / Trade / 59. Continued existence of a Multi Party Political System
Policy
Politics / Trade / 60. Local politics and rural approach to governance
Policy
Politics / Trade / 61. Relaxation on the tourist emigration process
Policy
Politics / Trade / 62. Restriction on abortion

53
Policy
Politics / Trade / 63. Absence of policy to address global warming
Policy
Politics / Trade / 64. Impact of industrial decentralization policy
Policy
Politics / Trade / 65. Effect of road transport policy on foreign industries
Policy
Politics / Trade / 66. Change in the minimum wage
Policy
Politics / Trade / 67. Impact of free trade agreement
Policy
Politics / Trade / 68. large concentration on the farming of commercial
Policy commodity
Politics / Trade / 69. Absence of political will & commitment to change

Policy
Politics / Trade / 70. Exercise of freedom of speech
Policy
Legal 71. Delay on criminal case decision
Legal 72. Effectiveness of security forces & police in maintaining

civil order
Legal 73. Effect of minimum age regulation on controlling child

labor
Politics / Trade / 74. Low labor wages

Policy
Politics / Trade / 75. Restriction of media and television broadcasting
Policy licenses to locals
Politics / Trade / 76. Extent of transparency in international aided

Policy development work
Legal 77. Level of property rights execution
Legal 78. Level of product liability law enforcement
Legal 79. Execution of law in supreme court
Politics / Trade / 80. Impact of commercial food export

Policy
Politics / Trade / 81. Impact of trans-shipment on drug trafficking
Policy
Society 82. Level of emigration of labor work force to Costa Rica

54
Society 83. Impact of High Population growth rate on the

Nicaraguan economy
Ethics 84. Co-existence of ethnic groups
Education 85. Literacy rate among women
Health 86. Impact of health care services in rural community
Health 87. Availability of safe drinking water
Politics / Trade / 88. Permitting international companies to set up base

Policy
Society 89. Availability of employment opportunities within the
country
Politics / Trade / 90. Nature of corruption in the government

Policy
Environment 91. Construction of Nicaragua canal
Health 92. Spread of STDs and HIV/AIDs
Society 93. Level of Poverty in rural areas
Politics / Trade / 94. Extent of foreign aid received to eradicate poverty and
Policy providing basic civic facilities
Society 95. Level of livestock breeding in the plains
Health 96. Stability in food supply
Environment 97. Impact of high pesticide use in cotton industry
Environment 98. Extent of Soil Erosion in the coastal regions
Environment 99. Effect of deforestation on environment
Environment 100. Farming on the fertile coastal regions of the lake

Nicaragua and other water bodies
Environment 101. Addition of new fish species like tilapia in the Lake
Environment 102. The steady expansion of agricultural frontier
Environment 103. Unplanned mineral extraction especially gold

55
Environment 104. Possible extinction of the sea turtles
Environment 105. Extraction of huge unexplored potential mineral

reserves
Society 106. Involvement of youth in drug related crimes
Environment 107. Unchecked tapping of natural resources
Environment 108. Impact of Equilibrium on ecosystem
Technology 109. Impact of availability of telecommunications

infrastructure
Technology 110. Effect of high cost of internet services relative to local

incomes
Ethics 111. Impact of cultural bias towards school autonomy
Industry 112. Effect of low industrial progress beyond the stage of

light manufacture
Industry 113. Impact of reliability on oil imports
Technology 114. Continuity of privatization of telecoms companies
Politics / Trade / 115. Effect of influx of Foreign Direct Investment inflows on

Policy various domains
Politics / Trade / 116. Impact on relations with the United States for export /
Policy import
Environment 117. Impact of weather conditions
Technology 118. Access to information for effective e-governance
Politics / Trade / 119. Effects of relations with neighboring countries

Policy
Economics 120. Impact of economic situation on the public
Society 121. Effect of uneven population distributions across areas
Infrastructure 122. Effect of health and town planning in rural areas
Industry 123. Impact of government support towards local industries

56
Technology 124. Extend of investments in research and development on

the economy
Politics / Trade / 125. Impact of the project ‘Rural Electrification Project for
Policy Development Outside the Central Grid’ run by the
World Bank
Politics / Trade / 126. Impact of the project ‘Second Agricultural Technology’

Policy run by the World Bank
Politics / Trade / 127. Impact of the project ‘Nicaragua Rural Telecom

Policy Project’ run by the World Bank
Economy 128. Availability of energy import
Economy 129. External demand fluctuation
Society 130. Level of unemployment rate
Economy 131. Level of real estate investment
Economy 132. Tourism development
Politics / Trade / 133. Internal transportation connection

Policy
Economy 134. Private investment from other countries
Economy 135. Possibility in industry transformation
Politics / Trade / 136. Tax imposed (by US) on Nicaragua's exports

Policy
Politics / Trade / 137. International relationship(especially with USA)
Policy
Politics / Trade / 138. Salary growth
Policy
Society 139. Gender equality in job opportunity
Society 140. Number of citizens migrate out of Nicaragua
6. UNCERTAINTIES AND PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES
57
Uncertainties Plausible outcome a Plausible outcome b

1. Population growth rate Poor quality of education Ample availability of basic
facilities
population growth rate Large families with limited
means to support them
2. Extent of urbanization Rise in crime rate in the Lack of cheap labor in the
urban areas cities
3. Ratio of birth rate to Population explosion Increases pressure on local
death rate health services and
Civic amenities
4. Extent of migration Increase in urban More job opportunities for
rate population the local
5. Attitude towards Better implementation of Men and women are
women in the family women’s rights equally prevalent in the
and in workplace workplace
attitude towards Women are mostly seen to
women in the family be in family roles
and in workplace
6. Change in literacy rate People belonging to The illiterate remain
and its affect particular demographics get illiterate and country is in
educated over the coming the hand of the educated
years from generations
change in literacy rate Majority of workforce
and its affect comprises of unskilled
workers leading to poor
wages
7. Free mandatory Increase in skilled Awareness of social and
primary education workforce health issues such as
contraception, birth control
and STDs
8. Capability of education Government promotes and Heavy concentration of
department invests heavily in education schools in urban areas
9. Quality of education in Schooling interfering with Increased awareness helps
the rural areas education coping with health issues
10. Government support Leading to high literacy and Awareness of HIV Aids and
for female education Women being employed methods to curb them
government support Educated women will in turn Awareness of family
for female education help bringing up educated planning and its benefits
generation
government support Females seeking legal help
for female education against domestic violence
11. The number of people Educated people are crucial Educated people provide
who are educated in for economic growth integrity and peace in their
58
the society society

12. Expatriate community Will boost small and Added diversity and culture
settled in Nicaragua medium business industry to the society
within the country
expatriate community Will have a positive impact
settled in Nicaragua on the tourism industry
13. Population below Greater involvement of Increased government
poverty line international bodies like un reforms in rural areas
14. Government schemes Poverty groups will increase More availability of
to help the poor in some areas employment
15. Government programs People dying in rural areas Immunity to disease is
to help the poor in because of lack of food and going down
terms of providing food the lack of ability to afford
food
16. Economic composition The rich dominate and Increase in street crime
of the society exploit the poor
17. Level of division of Government has to spend Will give rise to resentment
society into rich & poor Sizeable portion of total against government and
spending to feed the poor elite in the society
18. Social and cultural The upper class segment is The elite is suppressing the
division looking after the country’s poor for personal gain
interest by helping the poor
to rise
19. Extent of slave work Increase in population Manipulation of the poor by
working under minimum the elite
wage living in miserable
conditions
20. Extent of employment More employed and Collection of taxes reduced
black marketing unemployed which the
Government does not know
about
21. Diversity of There are numerous In many areas there is only
employment offered to industries local people can one main industry to work in
locals work in
22. Proportion of If large, working class Is small, hampers the
population in the Group is driving the Economic growth of the
working class group economy country
23. Impact of religion on Religious leaders have a Religious freedom results in
society strong input in political harmony within the
Matters Society
impact of religion on Easier to pass social Strict social obligations
society messages with help of hampering growth
these groups
24. Level of impact of Government listens strongly Action on an issue raised

religious groups on to the opinion of strong by one religious community
59
politics religious groups can have a negative impact

on another religious
community giving rise to
conflict
25. Cultural and religion Division in society creates Division in society renders
based division hatred, frustration and frustrated population
discord unproductive and a burden
on the government
26. Representation of all Increased discrimination in Inadequacy of public
ethnic communities in the society services in areas inhabited
power structures by communities with no
representation
representation of all Lack of social and cultural Indicators of health,
ethnic communities in integration of people education and housing
power structures remain lower for some as
compared to others
27. Level of discrimination Marginal involvement of Treatment in the media of
in the society representatives of some some ethnic groups
communities in reduced as folklore
government, parliament and
the judiciary
28. Level of support for No funding available to Government acting to
harnessing the maintain the indigenous prevent the wearing down
indigenous way of life way of life of indigenous way of life
29. Credibility of the Success or failure in raising Success or failure of
central bank of domestic public debt monetary policies
Nicaragua (impact or
effect)
credibility of the Success or failure in
central bank of fighting inflation
Nicaragua (impact or
effect)
30. Government access to Utilization of excess public Rate of growth of domestic
domestic public debt funds infrastructure
31. Continuity of Continuity of peace leading Continued constitutional
constitutional to economic progress rights for the citizens
democracy
32. Continuity of Freedom of speech Freedom of religion
constitutional rights
33. The right to form and Improved collective Job security and stability
join trade unions bargaining power of labor in leading to increased
private sector industrial output
the right to form and Organized labor can go on
join trade unions strikes disrupting production
34. Sustaining the Free market and free trade Maintenance of fiscal
"poverty reduction and policies discipline
60
growth facility" plan

35. Maintaining the us- Continued exports to us, Continued imports from us.
Central America free amounting to almost 2/3rd
trade agreement of total exports.
36. Support and aid to Effect on foreign investment Trade sanctions and
foreign radical regimes inflows and international aid embargoes
37. Enforcement of Foreign and domestic Benefit of foreign
stringent property investment in real estate investment to the local
rights economy
38. Political influence on Level of corruption in the Unchecked power vested in
the judiciary legal system the hands of the ruling
party.
39. Territorial disputes Stability/instability in the Trade embargoes with
with neighbors Central American region neighbors
territorial disputes Increased expenditure on
with neighbors defense
40. Maintaining friendly Continued aid, healthcare Continued beneficial trade
relations with us and debt relief relations with us.
41. Maintaining free trade Tax rebates and trade Level of competitiveness of
zones incentive for foreign local economy
investments
maintaining free trade Generation of employment
zones
42. Government Well educated, computer Skilled workforce for labor
investment in local literate workforce intensive industries
human capital
43. Promotion of foreign Continued foreign Local industrial and
investment laws investment inflow into infrastructural growth
Nicaragua
44. Future of soviet Loss of aid from us and Loss of support of leftist
weapons arsenal European allies allies
45. Maintaining religious Continuity of human rights Communal harmony
freedom leading to sustained local
growth
46. Diversification of trade Reduced dependence on Benefit of opening trade
and cooperative us markets for trade. relationships with countries
partnerships such as Venezuela, China, Iran
47. Participation in Central Regional integration in Promotion of regional
American Integration Central America solutions for regional
System (SICA) problems
48. Regional cooperation Common source of Increase in social
regarding the common additional funding for infrastructure projects
credit fund Central American
governments
49. Bilateral relations with Increase in trade and Proposed Brazilian aid in
brazil commerce development projects to
61
Nicaragua
50. Bilateral relations with Proposed aid in healthcare Proposed sharing of
russia and technology Russian expertise in
Nicaraguan energy projects
51. Bilateral relations with Proposed aid in Healthcare aid in
iran development of major marginalized areas of
hydroelectric plants Nicaragua from Iran
52. Bilateral relations with Establishment of Opening of Chinese
china Nicaraguan- Chinese markets for cash crop
chamber of industry and export
commerce
bilateral relations with Nicaraguan trade fairs and
china exhibitions in china
53. State's role in Change in the inequality Bridging the gap between
redistribution of index - GINI coefficient the have's and the have
income not's
54. Innovative Low interest, long term Maintenance of petroleum
development finance credit resulting in growth and oil supplies to aid rapid
initiatives like the and poverty reduction industrial growth
PETROCARIBE
55. Threat of a w-shaped Collapse of local industries Collapse of international
recession and increase in trade
unemployment
threat of a w-shaped Decreased tourism Severe impact on exports
recession
56. Future role of Regional economic integration
Bolivarian Alliance for and peace leading to mutual
the Americans - ALBA development
57. Impact of new Reduction of us control on Increased stability of
common currency- Central American regional markets
SUCRE economies
58. Legislation in favor of Revenue from canal might Nicaragua canal could
Nicaragua canal double Nicaragua’s annual make Nicaragua one of the
GDP richest nations of the region
legislation in favor of Nicaragua canal would Bring Nicaragua on the
Nicaragua canal create thousands of long world map
term local jobs.
legislation in favor of Complete destruction of san Deforestation
Nicaragua canal Juan river
legislation in favor of Damage to ecosystem
Nicaragua canal
59. Continued existence of Continued democracy Continued democracy
a multi party political leading to sustainable leading to sustainable
system growth growth
60. Local politics and rural Local politicians want to Local politicians are being
approach to improve conditions suppressed by ruling party
62
governance
61. Relaxation on the Increase in the foreign Provide easy access to non
tourist emigration currency due to more social elements
process tourists
62. Restriction on abortion Motivate people to use Punish women, especially
contraception/safety sex worked of added
responsibility of growing a
child without father.
63. Absence of policy to Tourist places have started Non-government
address global deteriorating organization step forward to
warming address the global warming
64. Impact of industrial Distribution of money & Reduced industrial
decentralization policy people in the impoverished investment
area
65. Effect of road transport Road transport is the best Increasing fuel costs raise
policy on foreign mean of goods transport in the industries operating
industries country cost.
66. Change in the Helped to reduce the Negative impact of the
minimum wage poverty among labor global competition
67. Impact of free trade Helped the economy by tax Negative impact on the
agreement free import/export local industry by cheap
commodity imported from
neighbors
68. Large concentration Farmers enjoy more profit Government not able to
on the farming of through export meet the food requirement
commercial for increased population.
commodity
69. Absence of political Negate the impact of reform Existing economic
will & commitment to efforts development will be
change threaded in long run
70. Exercise of freedom of People are free to express Political/government
speech views/thoughts officials suppress the right
of speech whenever
required
71. Delay on criminal case Decision makers are being Continuously increasing
decision blackmailed / threaten / burden on the government
bribed & government officials
72. Effectiveness of Motivated by politics and Violence & discrimination
security forces & corruption against women
police in maintaining
civil order
73. Effect of minimum age Ministry of labor rarely Underemployment cause
regulation on prosecute the violation of extra burden on the family
controlling child labor minimum age regulation
74. Low labor wages Motive people to participate Increase the number of
in drug trafficking & crime child labor
63
75. Restriction of media Motivation for the local Less investment by the
and television people to participate in global media corporations
broadcasting licenses establishing business
to locals
76. Extent of transparency Increase in corruption Availability of fund through
in international aided among government officials outer organization disrupted
development work
77. Level of property rights Leads to property dispute Decrease credibility of law
execution and litigation system among society
78. Level of product More cases of health issues Lack of law system's
liability law actions lead unrest in
enforcement people
79. Execution of law in Common people stops to Very frequent political
supreme court use law system to get the issues confronted
justice
80. Impact of commercial Large land owner earn Small land owner. Not able
food export more profit though to meet national food
commercial food export requirement
81. Impact of trans- Trans-shipment of export Increase the drug related
shipment on drug goods flourish the illegal crime
trafficking shipment of drugs
82. Level of emigration of Higher remittance Reduced demands for jobs
labor work force to contributing to economic and public services in the
Costa Rica growth of the country and home country
mitigate trade deficit
83. Impact of high Strains the health and Depletion of natural
population growth rate education system resources e.g. Fossil fuels
on the Nicaraguan
economy
84. Co-existence of ethnic Always a situation of cold Ethnic groups are able to
groups war among ethnic groups interact and trade amongst
and terror prevails them freely
85. Literacy rate among Women seeking legal help Drop in the fertility rates
women against domestic violence amongst women
86. Impact of health care Sharp decrease in the Fall in the child mortality
services in rural maternal deaths cases. cases
community
87. Availability of safe Increase in cases of water Tap water is safe for
drinking water borne diseases like drinking
diarrhea
88. Permitting Offer very less wages and Government benefits from
international little job security to workers the contributions of these
companies to set up foreign companies
base
89. Availability of Youth joining local gangs Working population migrate
employment and rob locals and tourists to other ca countries like
64
opportunities within on streets Costa Rica which has better

the country employment opportunities
90. Nature of corruption in Limits the help the poor International aid does not
the government people desperately need reach the people it is
intended for
91. Construction of Huge boost to the economy Huge damage to the eco
Nicaragua canal of Nicaragua and benefit system as water from
from trade passage pacific meet the Atlantic
92. Spread of STDs and Negative impact on tourism Government spreading
HIV/Aids awareness among people
on contraceptives and
limiting spread of STDs
93. Level of poverty in Severe malnutrition among Government providing relief
rural areas children resulting in in the form of financial
deficiency diseases or aids/low interest
deaths funds/employment/free
health care services to
people under poverty line
94. Extent of foreign aid Corruption in the Aid channelized into right
received to eradicate government results in direction and most of rural
poverty and providing money going into wrong people are better off with
basic civic facilities hands safe drinking water and
access to healthcare
systems
95. Level of livestock Overgrazing leading to loss Increased revenues by
breeding in the plains of firmness of top soil and exporting meat to us
making it vulnerable to be countries
washed away by wind and
rain
96. Stability in food supply Local merchants hoard Government control the
basic food to increase theirprices of basic food items
profit and keeps hoarding and
corruption in check
97. Impact of high Health problems amongst Increased cotton production
pesticide use in cotton workers including in the short term leading to
industry poisoning, fish kills and higher exports of cotton
deep well contamination adding to GDP
98. Extent of soil erosion Top soil guarded by framing Huge productivity loss in
in the coastal regions barricades which would coffee, and banana
stem flow of water plantation as fertile top soil
is gone
99. Effect of deforestation Erosion of the top soil & Lot of plant and animal
on environment more occurrences of natural species are endangered,
disasters such as rainforests were prime
hurricanes habitat for them
100. Farming on the fertile The fertilizers, chemicals, The rich fertile soil provides
65
coastal regions of the pesticides and insecticides a good output of the plant
lake Nicaragua and end up in the lake under cultivation
other water bodies contaminating the water
101. Addition of new fish Generates huge amount of Increased revenue from
species like tilapia in waste which the water has export of fish
the lake to adsorb
102. The steady expansion Deforestation of thousands
of agricultural frontier hectares of rainforests
103. Unplanned mineral Mercury and other wastes
extraction especially discharged in lakes, ground
gold water
104. Possible extinction of Loss to the tourism industry Disruption of the ecological
the sea turtles pyramid
105. Extraction of huge Government guarding and The mineral reserves are
unexplored potential controlling the extraction of explored but not extracted
mineral reserves such mineral reserves due to financial restrictions
106. Involvement of youth Due to unemployment Government restricting such
in drug related crimes majority of youths getting crimes by focusing on the ill
frustrated and resorting to effects of drugs and spreading
drugs and crimes awareness among masses
107. Unchecked tapping of Depletion of natural Import of natural resources
natural resources resources
108. Impact of equilibrium Global temperatures rising , Extinction of a lot of flora
on ecosystem melting of polar ice and rise and fauna
of sea levels
109. Impact of availability of Lack of availability leads to Lack of availability leads to
telecommunications challenges in offering poor growth of local
infrastructure internet services through business and general
economic means like cable quality of life in rural and
modems marginal areas
110. Effect of high cost of Private use of email and Poor knowledge base in
internet services internet services remains general public due to lack of
relative to local low global connectivity and
incomes awareness
111. Impact of cultural bias Formal technical and Subjects taught in school
towards school vocational education is and universities are not on
autonomy scarce resulting in an par with international
unskilled workforce when schools.
compared to global
demands
112. Effect of low industrial Low in-house production of Lack of manufacture of
progress beyond the goods and electronics export-oriented products
stage of light leading to higher costs which would attract foreign
manufacture incurred on imports direct investment
113. Impact of reliability on Fluctuating oil prices makes International financial crisis
oil imports budget forecasting difficult brings about turmoil due to
66
and adversely affects the sharp inflation rates

GBP growth
114. Continuity of Strong investments leading Monopoly of mobile
privatization of to rapid expansion of both services leading to high
telecoms companies fixed and mobile services tariffs for call and data
packages
115. Effect of influx of Restructuring of traditional Rise in job opportunities for
foreign direct maquila (offshore assembly people with various
investment inflows on for re-export) operations vocational skills and
various domains and manufacture of new expertise
products like aluminum and
electrical wiring for cars
116. Impact on relations Recession brought about Export made Nicaragua
with the united states weaker external demand for vital for the us and
for export / import export-oriented goods in the increased the flow of
us remittances and foreign
direct investment
117. Impact of weather Altered rainfall patterns due Unpredictable weather
conditions hurricanes brings down patterns adversely affects
traditional exports agriculture
118. Access to information Increase in voting Government blindfolded in
for effective e- participation terms of demographic data
governance and carrying out reforms in
society
119. Effects of relations Increased exports to Ongoing negotiations for
with neighboring Venezuela have helped in free trade agreement with
countries directly stimulating Chile which would help
economic growth boost export and create
jobs
effects of relations Territorial disputes with
with neighboring Honduras, Costa Rica and
countries Columbia has directly
affected trading, especially
in petroleum and consumer
goods imports
120. Impact of economic High bankruptcy rate Results in high inflation.
situation on the public Almost half of the population
lives in poverty, with a fifth in
extreme poverty
121. Effect of uneven Majority of the population Clear danger of social
population are concentrated in the divide between the wealthy
distributions across capital, Managua, leading who would be able to afford
areas to poor infrastructure and education and information
livelihood in rural and services and the poor who
interior areas would remain illiterate and
unaware of technology
122. Effect of health and Inadequate planning leads Inadequate planning leads
67
town planning in rural to poor living conditions in to loss of income from

areas many parts of the country tourism and local
with lack of basic amenities, businesses due to lack of
power lines and water tubes infrastructure and
connectivity across cities
123. Impact of government Lack of support leads to Macroeconomic
support towards local increase in the management is favorable
industries unemployment rate which for local businesses and
would sink the country manufacturing industries
much deeper into poverty leading to some
improvement in GDP
124. Extend of investments Pumping capital on R&D Lack of interest towards
in research and projects to bring out more innovation will adversely
development on the efficient production models affect the growth and
economy will increase productivity development of the
and economic performance economy and in turn
of the country encourage social disparity
and poverty
125. Impact of the project The project would provide Would strengthen the
‘rural electrification sustainable electricity government’s institutional
project for services in selected rural capacity to execute its rural
development outside areas electrification strategy
the central grid’ run by
the world bank
126. Impact of the project Provides rural households Stimulates higher
‘second agricultural and communities with agricultural productivity
technology’ run by the broader access to
world bank sustainable agricultural,
forestry and natural
resource management
services and innovations
127. Impact of the project Would increase Support private-sector
‘Nicaragua rural infrastructure and reduce operators for installing,
telecom project’ run by costs of operating, and maintaining
the world bank telecommunications the new systems on a
services in rural areas commercial basis
128. Availability of energy Energy crisis High expenditure on energy
import purchase
129. External demand Highly affected by external Excessive production of
fluctuation economic environment goods
130. level of Street crime increase Government expenditure on
unemployment rate social welfare in crease
131. Level of real estate Increase development of Real estate price operated by
investment tourism foreign investors intentionally
132. Tourism development Increase job opportunity Reduced pressure on
agricultural industry
68
133. Internal transportation Link local cities Delay to relief measures to

connection easily(sharing, goods, rural areas
services, information)
134. Private investment Increase job opportunity Facilitate globalization
from other countries
135. Possibility in industry Independent from exporting Stable economic
transformation environment
136. Tax imposed (by us) Low profits for local Economic progress
on Nicaragua's exports companies dependent on other
countries' government
policies
137. International Strong international trading Power to negotiate on
relationship(especially development trading terms(ex. Tax)
with USA)
138. Salary growth Socially well-being Decrease foreign
companies' intention to
invest locally
139. Gender equality in job Increased workforce in the Fair society
opportunity market
140. Number of citizens Loss of highly skilled Negative development in
migrate out of workers in internal job civilization/birth rate
Nicaragua market
69
7. CLUSTERING OF UNCERTAINTIES
Cluster Headings Contributory Uncertainties
 Impact of political influence on judiciary

 Nature of corruption in government
 Execution of laws in supreme court
 Delay in criminal case decisions
 Impact of industrial decentralization policy
 Level of effective product liability
IMPACT OF JUDICIAL  Level of enforcement of property rights
SYSTEM ON MIGRATION
 Level of transparency in government offices
 Local policies and rural approach to governance
 Effect of minimum age regulation on controlling
child labor
 Extent of slave work
 Emigration of labor force to central American
countries
 Continuity of privatization of telecom companies

 Permitting international companies to setup base
in country
 Effect of high cost of internet services relative to
EFFECTS OF
local incomes
PRIVATIOZATION OF THE
DIRECTION OF THE  Access of information for effective e-governance
ECONOMY  Effect of transport policy for foreign industries
 Effect of low industrial progress beyond the
stage of light manufacture
 Unchecked tapping of natural resources
 Threat of a W-shaped recession
 Government support towards local industry

 Impact of project ‘Nicaragua rural telecom
project’ run by the world bank
 Impact of project ‘ Electrification project for
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT ON development outside the central grid’ run by the
LOCAL INDUSTRY world bank
 Impact of project ‘ Second agricultural
technology’ run by the world bank
 Extraction of huge unexplored mineral reserves
 Level of livestock breeding in the plains
70
 Internal transportation connection

 Steady expansion of agricultural frontier
 Diversity of employment offered to locals
 Effects of population below poverty line
 Change in minimum wage
 Involvement of youths in drug related crimes
 Effect of health and town planning in rural areas

 Internal transportation connection
 Free mandatory education
IMPACT OF TOWN
 Availability of basic medical facilities and primary
PLANNING OF HEALTH
health care
CARE
 Change in literacy rate
 State’s role in redistribution of income
 Spread of HIV/AIDS
 Level of division of society into rich and poor
 Future role of Bolivian Alliance of America[ALBA]

 Participation in central American integration
system[SICA]
 Regional co-operation regarding the common
IMPACT OF REGIONAL credit fund
COOPERATION ON  Impact of new common currency – SUCRE
ECONOMY  Innovative development finance initiatives like
the PETROCARBIDE
 Effects of relations with neighboring countries
 Possibility of industrial development
 Extent of urbanization
 Legislation in favor of Nicaragua canal

 Effect of deforestation on environment
 Territorial disputes with neighbors
 Diversity of employment offered to locals
IMPACT OF THE  Level of contamination in lake Nicaragua
CONSTRUCTION OF  Extent of soil erosion in the coastal region
NICARAGUA CANAL ON  Impact of reliability on oil imports
CENTRAL AMERICA  Impact of economic situation on the public
 Availability of safe drinking water
 Nature of farming on fertile coastal regions of
lake Nicaragua and other water bodies
 Impact of high pesticide use in cotton industry
 Impact of healthcare on rural communities
71
 Possible extinction of sea turtle

 Impact of weather conditions
 Impact of equilibrium of ecosystem
 Diversification of trade and co-operative

partnerships
ATTITUDE OF US TOWARDS  Bilateral relations with Russia on technology,
NICARAGUA’S energy and healthcare
INTERNATIONAL  Bilateral trade relation with China
PARTNERSHIPS  Bilateral relations with Iran on power sector and
healthcare
 Impact on relations with the US for import/export
 Tax imposed by US on Nicaragua export
 Investments from foreign partnerships

 Impact of telecommunication infrastructure
 Export of commercial commodity
 Availability of energy import
EFFECTS OF FDI ON LOCAL  Impact of healthcare on rural communities
ECONOMY  Possibility in industry transformation
 Effects of influx of FDI inflows on various
domains
 Salary growth
 Nature of corruption in the government

 Absence of political will & commitment to change
 Extent of investment in research & development
of the economy
 Extent of employment black market
EFFECTS OF CORRUPTION  Impact of credibility of the central bank of
ON NATIONAL AID AND Nicaragua
INTERNATIONAL  Private investment from other countries
RELATIONS  Effect of low wages
 Level of foreign aid received
 International relationship especially with the US
 Level of poverty in rural areas
 Emigration of labor force to central American
NATURE OF UTILISATION countries
OF AID IN SOCIAL
WELFARE PROJECTS
72
 Effects of sustaining IMF’s poverty reduction and

growth facility plan
 Government schemes to help the poor
 Government support for female education
 Attitude towards women in the family and
workplace
 Gender equality in job opportunities
 Level of discrimination in the society
 Free primary education
 Investment in the education department
 Number of people who are educated in the
society
 Quality of education in the rural areas
 Government investment in local human capital
 Level of unemployment rate
 Effects of sustaining the poverty reduction and

growth facility plan
 Government programs to help the poor
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN  Stability in supply of food
FOOD SECURITY  Impact on economic disparity
 Level of discrimination in the society
 Continuity of constitutional democracy

 Continued existence of multi party political
system
NATURE OF CONSTITUTIONAL  Exercise of freedom of speech
DEMOCRACY IN THE FUTURE  Community of constitutional rights
 Co-existence of ethnic groups
 Importance of a non biased media
 Maintaining religious freedom
 Impact of religion on society
 Social and cultural divisions
73
8. CLUSTERS
a. Impact of judicial system on migration
IMPACT OF NATURE OF EXECUTION OF DELAY IN

POLITICAL CORRUPTION IN LAWS IN CRIMINAL CASE
INFLUENCE ON GOVERNMENT SUPREME COURT DECISIONS
JUDICIARY
IMPACT OF LEVEL OF LEVEL OF

INDUSTRIAL EFFECTIVE ENFORCEMENT
DECENTRALIZATI PRODUCT OF PROPERTY
ON POLICY LIABILITY RIGHTS EFFECT OF
MINIMUM AGE
REGULATION ON
CONTROLLING
CHILD LABOR
LOCAL POLICIES
AND RURAL
LEVEL OF APPROACH TO
TRANSPARENCY GOVERNANCE EXTENT OF SLAVE
IN GOVERNMENT
WORK
OFFICES
IMPACT OF EMIGRATION OF
LABOR FORCE TO
JUDICIAL SYSTEM CENTRAL
ON MIGRATION AMERICAN
COUNTRIES
b. Effect of privatization on the direction of economy
CONTINUITY OF PERMITTING EFFECT OF HIGH ACCESS OF

PRIVATIZATION OF INTERNATIONAL COST OF INFORMATION
TELECOM COMPANIES TO INTERNET FOR EFFECTIVE
COMPANIES SET UP BASE IN SERVICES E – GOVERNANCE
THE COUNTRY RELATIVE TO
LOCAL INCOMES
EFFECT OF EFFECT OF LOW

TRANSPORT INDUSTRIAL
POLICY FOR PROGRESS
FOREIGN BEYOND THE
INDUSTRIES STAGE OF LIGHT
MANUFACTURE
EFFECTS OF
UNCHECKED THREAT OF A PRIVATIZATION
TAPPING OF W – SHAPED
NATURAL RECESSION ON THE
RESOURCES DIRECTION OF
THE ECONOMY
75
c. Role of government on local industry
IMPACT OF PROJECT
‘NICARAGUA RURAL
TELECOM PROJECT’
RUN BY THE WORLD
BANK INTERNAL
TRANSPORTATION
CONNECTION
IMPACT OF PROJECT
‘RURAL ELECTRIFICATION DIVERSITY OF CHANGE IN
PROJECT FOR EMPLOYMENT MINIMUM WAGE
DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE STEADY
THE CENTRAL GRID’ RUN
OFFERED TO
BY THE WORLD BANK EXPANSION OF LOCALS
AGRICULTURAL
FRONTIER
IMPACT OF PROJECT
GOVERNMENT ‘SECOND EFFECTS INVOLVEMENT OF
SUPPORT AGRICULTURAL POPULATION YOUTH IN DRUG
TOWARDS LOCAL TECHNOLOGY’ RUN BELOW POVERTY RELATED CRIMES
INDUSTRY BY THE WORLD BANK LINE
EXTRACTION OF
HUGE UNEXPLORED
MINERAL RESERVES ROLE OF
GOVERNMENT ON
LOCAL INDUSTRY
LEVEL OF LIVESTOCK
BREEDING IN THE
PLAINS 76
d. Impact of town planning on health care
INTERNAL
TRANSPORTATION
CONNECTION
IMPACT OF TOWN
PLANNING ON
HEALTH CARE
AVAILABILITY OF
BASIC MEDICAL
FACILITIES AND
PRIMARY HEALTH
EFFECT OF CARE SPREAD OF HIV /
HEALTH AND AIDS
TOWN PLANNING
IN RURAL AREAS
CHANGE IN
LITERACY RATE
FREE MANDATORY
EDUCATION
STATE’S ROLE IN LEVEL OF

REDISTRIBUTION DIVISION OF
77
OF INCOME
Full Time MBA 2010-11 – BHREAC. Group 8. Country - Nicaragua SOCIETY INTO
RICH AND POOR
e. Impact of regional co – operation on economy
FUTURE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT

BOLIVIAN ACCESS TO
ALLIANCE OF DOMESTIC PUBLIC
AMERICA DEBT
[ALBA]
PARTICIPATION IN IMPACT OF NEW INNOVATIVE POSSIBILITY OF EXTENT OF

CENTRAL COMMON DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRIAL URBANIZATION
AMERICAN CURRENCY FINANCE TRANSFORMATION
INTEGRATION INITIATIVES LIKE
SYSTEM SUCRE THE
[SICA] PETROCARIBE
REGIONAL EFFECTS OF
CO – OPERATION RELATIONS WITH
REGARDING THE NEIGHBORING
COMMON CREDIT COUNTRIES
FUND IMPACT OF
REGIONAL
CO – OPERATION
ON ECONOMY
78
IMPACT OF
f. Impact of construction on Nicaragua Canal on Central America WEATHER
CONDITIONS
EFFECT OF EXTENT OF SOIL NATURE OF FARMING

DEFORESTATION EROSION IN THE ON FERTILE COASTAL
REGIONS OF LAKE
ON ENVIRONMENT COASTAL NICARAGUA AND
REGIONS OTHER WATER
BODIES
TERRITORIAL IMPACT OF IMPACT OF HIGH

DISPUTES WITH RELIABILITY ON PESTICIDE USE IN
NEIGHBORS OIL IMPORTS COTTON INDUSTRY
LEGISLATION IN
FAVOR OF
NICARAGUA
CANAL
DIVERSITY OF IMPACT OF
EMPLOYMENT ECONOMIC
OFFERED TO SITUATION ON
LOCALS THE PUBLIC
IMPACT OF THE LEVEL OF AVAILABILITY OF IMPACT OF IMPACT ON

CONSTRUCTION OF CONTAMINATION SAFE DRINKING HEALTHCARE ON EQUILIBRIUM OF
NICARAGUA CANAL IN LAKE WATER RURAL ECOSYSTEM
NICARAGUA COMMUNITIES
ON CENTRAL
AMERICA
79
Full Time MBA 2010-11 – BHREAC. Group 8. Country - Nicaragua POSSIBLE
EXTINCTION OF
SEA TURTLES
g. Attitude of U.S. towards Nicaragua’s international partnerships
ATTITUDE OF US
BILATERAL TOWARDS
RELATIONS WITH NICARAGUA’S
RUSSIA ON
TECHNOLOGY, INTERNATIONAL
ENERGY AND PARTNERSHIPS
HEALTHCARE
DIVERSIFICATION BILATERAL TRADE IMPACT ON TAX IMPOSED BY

OF TRADE AND CO RELATIONS WITH RELATIONS WITH US ON
– OPERATIVE CHINA THE US FOR NICARAGUAN
PARTNERSHIPS IMPORT / EXPORT EXPORTS
BILATERAL
RELATIONS WITH
IRAN ON POWER
SECTOR AND
HEALTHCARE
80
h. Effects of FDI on local economy

IMPACT OF
TELECOMMUNICATION
INFRASTRUCTURE
EXPORT OF POSSIBILITY IN EFFECTS OF

COMMERCIAL INDUSTRY INFLUX OF FDI
COMMODITY TRANSFORMATION INFLOWS ON
VARIOUS
DOMAINS
INVESTMENTS
FROM FOREIGN
PARTNERSHIPS
AVAILABILITY OF SALARY GROWTH

ENERGY IMPORT
IMPACT OF EXTENT OF
HEALTHCARE ON URBANIZATION
EFFECTS OF FDI ON RURAL COMMUNITIES
LOCAL ECONOMY
81
i. Effects of corruption on national and international relations

LEVEL OF
EFFECTS OF FOREIGN AID
CORRUPTION ON RECEIVED
NATIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF
RELATIONS CREDIBILITY OF
THE CENTRAL
BANK OF
NICARAGUA
INTERNATIONAL
NATURE OF ABSENCE OF RELATIONSHIP
CORRUPTION IN POLITICAL WILL & ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COMMITMENT TO THE US
GOVERNMENT CHANGE
PRIVATE
INVESTMENT
FROM OTHER
COUNTRIES
LEVEL OF EMIGRATION OF
EXTENT OF POVERTY IN LABOR FORCE TO
INVESTMENTS IN RURAL AREAS CENTRAL
RESEARCH & AMERICAN
DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES
ON THE ECONOMY
EFFECT OF LOW
WAGES
EXTENT OF
EMPLOYMENT 82
BLACK
Full Time MBA 2010-11 – BHREAC. Group MARKET
8. Country - Nicaragua
j. Nature of utilization of aid on social welfare projects

EFFECTS OF
SUSTAINING IMF’S
‘POVERTY
REDUCTION AND
GROWTH FACILITY’
PLAN
GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT ATTITUDE GENDER LEVEL OF

SCHEMES TO SUPPORT FOR TOWARDS WOMEN EQUALITY IN JOB DISCRIMINATION
HELP THE POOR FEMALE IN THE FAMILY OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SOCIETY
EDUCATION AND WORKPLACE
FREE PRIMARY INVESTMENT IN NUMBER OF

EDUCATION THE EDUCATION PEOPLE WHO ARE
DEPARTMENT EDUCATED IN THE
SOCIETY
QUALITY OF
NATURE OF EDUCATION IN
THE RURAL
UTILIZATION OF AID AREAS
IN SOCIAL WELFARE
PROJECTS
GOVERNMENT LEVEL OF
INVESTMENT IN 83
UNEMPLOYMENT
LOCAL HUMAN RATE
CAPITAL
k. Role of government in food security
ROLE OF
GOVERNMENT IN
FOOD SECURITY
STABILITY IN
SUPPLY OF FOOD
EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT EXTENT OF LEVEL OF

SUSTAINING THE PROGRAMS TO URBANIZATION DISCRIMINATION
“POVERTY HELP THE POOR IN THE SOCIETY
REDUCTION AND
GROWTH
FACILITY” PLAN
IMPACT ON
ECONOMIC
DISPARITY
84
l. Nature of constitutional democracy in the future
CONTINUED
EXISTENCE OF
MULTI – PARTY
POLITICAL
SYSTEM IMPORTANCE OF A
NON BIASED
MEDIA
EXERCISE OF
FREEDOM OF
SPEECH
CONTINUITY OF MAINTAINING IMPACT OF SOCIAL &

CONSTITUTIONAL RELIGIOUS RELIGION ON CULTURAL
DEMOCRACY FREEDOM SOCIETY DIVISIONS
COMMUNITY OF
CONSTITUTIONAL
RIGHTS
CO – EXISTENCE NATURE OF
OF ETHNIC
GROUPS CONSTITUTIONAL
DEMOCRACY IN THE
FUTURE
85
9. IMPACT / PREDICTABILITY ANALYSIS
High predictability
ROLE OF
GOVERNMENT
IN FOOD IMPACT OF THE
SECURITY CONSTRUCTION OF
NICARAGUA CANAL
ON CENTRAL
AMERICA EFFECTS OF FDI
EFFECTS OF ON LOCAL
CORRUPTION ON ECONOMY
NATIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS
Low impact High impact

EFFECTS OF IMPACT OF TOWN
PRIVATIZATION OF PLANNING ON
THE DIRECTION OF HEALTH CARE
ROLE OF THE ECONOMY IMPACT OF
GOVERNMENT REGIONAL
ON LOCAL CO – OPERATION
INDUSTRY ON ECONOMY
NATURE
NATURE OF OF
UTILIZATION
UTILIZATION
NATURE OF OF
CONSTITUTIONAL OF AID
AID IN
IN
SOCIAL
SOCIAL
DEMOCRACY IN WELFARE ATTITUDE
ATTITUDE OF
OF US
US
THE FUTURE WELFARE
IMPACT OF PROJECTS TOWARDS
TOWARDS
PROJECTS
JUDICIAL NICARAGUA’S
NICARAGUA’S
SYSTEM ON INTERNATIONAL
INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION PARTNERSHIPS
PARTNERSHIPS
86
Low predictability
10. FRAMING AND SCOPING SCENARIO END STATES
Scenario – 1 Scenario – 2
 DEBT RELIEF
 TAX RELAXATIONS
 FAVORABLE MEDIA COVERAGE
 HEAVY US INFLUENCE ON
NICARAGUAN POLITICS
 SHARING / TRAINING OF SKILLED
 CORRUPT GOVERNMENT MANPOWER
 SUPPRESSION OF WOMEN  LEFTIST IDEOLOGIES IN CHECK
 DROP IN LITERACY RATE  RELAXED IMMIGRATION LAWS FOR
 LOW EMPLOYMENT RATE NICARAGUANS  IMPROVEMENT IN BASIC HEALTH
 POOR BASIC HEALTH SERVICES
SERVICES  GENDER EQUALITY
 TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM  MORE JOB OPPORTUNITIES
WORSENS DUE TO LACK OF  INCENTIVES FOR THE GROWTH OF
INVESTMENT SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
 HIGH EMMIGRATION TO  BONAFIDE GOVERNMENT
CENTRAL AMERICA LEADING  BETTER EDUCATION FACILITIES FOR
TO POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TO THE PUBLIC
GDP VIA REMITTANCES
 MORE LOANS FROM LEFTISTS
87
 BETTER TECHNOLOGY & HEALTH

SERVICES FROM NEW PARTNERS
 HIGH INTEREST DEBT
 HIGH TAXES ON NICARAGUAN
EXPORTS TO UNITED STATES
 BIASED US MEDIA
 SELLING BASIC TECHNOLOGY AT
HIGH RATES
 BULDING STRONGER TIES WITH
NEIGHBORS
 RUSSIAN / CHINESE INFLUENCE ON
NICARAGUAN POLICITS
 STRINGENT US IMMIGRATION LAWS
FOR NICARAGUANS
Scenario – 4 Scenario – 3
88
11. SCENARIO STORIES
a. BUREAUCRACY-THE EPOXY THAT GREASES THE WHEELS OF

PROGRESS
Scenario Title
In a nascent growing economy, bureaucracy of the policy makers has the power to
make or break the future of a nation. In this scenario, we have attempted to
investigate the effect of corruption on a progressing economy where the greed of
government officials and private investors result in acting like an epoxy that greases
the wheels of progress. This scenario is of added interest to us as Nicaragua’s future
is highly dependent on a few major stake holders.
Key Descriptors of the Present
Foreign aid is being pumped in from both the right and the left wings into Nicaragua
resulting in Investment in Infrastructure for the country. The Nicaraguan government
wants the welfare of its people and seems to be earnest. The government realizes
that future growth depends on building a strong infrastructural base of the economy
and thus, it invests heavily in local industries, healthcare, providing civic amenities
etc. The future as we see it at this point of time looks bright.
Key Events over Time
 Continued foreign investment and aid pouring into Nicaragua.

 Heavy investment in building local industries.
 Substantial investment in providing health care and civic amenities like clean
drinking water.
 Movement toward meeting MDGs of gender equality, reduced child mortality,
improved maternal health, and stemming HIV/AIDS and other epidemics.
 Entry of multinational companies into a booming Nicaraguan economy.
 Increased influence of strong business magnates on Nicaraguan policy
makers and implementers.
 Complacency setting in after initial success and euphoria.
 Levels of corruption on the rise.
 Mismanagement of funds.
 Losses in Nicaraguan markets due to a W-Shaped recession in the US.
 Rise in unemployment
 Increase in Poverty
 Government disregard to national plight
 Continued disregard of Human and constitutional rights
 Increased US interference in Nicaraguan Policy matters
 High Dependence on US
Cause / Effect and Chronological Linkages between Events

1. Readily available aid combined with effective utilization would lead to

Investments in health care and educational infrastructure. Increased education
will lead to increased awareness of STDs like AIDS/ HIV and increased use of
preventive measures. This would help reduce social and gender discrimination
among masses moving towards meeting some of the major MDG’s such as
gender equality and women’s rights and control of HIV/AIDS. Good healthcare
infrastructure coupled with awareness on pregnancy and birth control would
help reduce maternal death cases. At this point of time, Nicaragua would
logically be moving towards achieving their Millennium Development Goals.
2. On the flip side readily available aid would also fuel corruption from the lower
levels of the governance. Corruption coupled with the possibility of a W-
Shaped recession in the US would inevitably slow down the economy. This will
eventually lead to increase in Inflation which will have rippling effects on all
facets of the economy.
3. The rise in unemployment caused by the economic slowdown and inflation

would lead to pitfalls like the majority of youths resorting to drugs and crime,
increased food prices, increased pressure on local health services and civic
amenities leading to the devaluation of the local currency. The government in
all probability would not be able to meet national food requirements locally and
would have to request for additional aid. Additional aid in a struggling economy
would lead to a vicious cycle of corruption thus hampering any growth seen
previously.
Key Descriptors of Future State
The rising inflation would hamper the growth of the economy. This coupled with the
fear in the common man due to increased street crime and drug related incidents
would lead to a collapse in law and order and existing social norms. The lack of
political motivation in the government due to the crippling recession would lead it to
turn a deaf ear to the national plight.
Continued disregard of human and constitutional rights would bring down the
credibility of the local government and in turn would lead to the deteriorating US
confidence on the Nicaraguan government and fuel its interference on all policy and
decision making of the government. The capitalist impact of Nicaragua would lead to
the loss of support from other strong leftist allies like China and Russia, thus creating
a high dependence on US for political and economic matters.
Implications for the Client Organizations
 Interference of the US in Nicaraguan policy matters

 Deterioration of relations with the Leftist powers
 Disbursable aid available when required
 Social plight among masses still exist
 Improved availability of basic amenities
Increased dependence on US for all social and economic matters
90
b. PROGRESSING UNDER THE WINGS OF THE EAGLE…
Scenario Title
As the title suggests, this scenario is closely interlinked with strong bilateral trade
relations with the US and the benefits that the Nicaraguan economy would potentially
reap from this partnership. Increased support from the US combined with a
government working towards economic progress could result in growing much closer
to the accomplishment of a few of the major Millennium Development Goals related
to poverty and education.
At present, Nicaragua has strong bilateral trade relations with the US. This has
helped pump in more aid in the form of funds from the US, helping Nicaragua relieve
previous debts. The attitude of the government looks quite promising in terms of
working efficiently to disburse available funds towards investments in education and
healthcare. Although corruption exists at all levels of governance, the government as
a whole has been able to keep it in check so that the utilization of aid is funneled
through the right channels aimed at the well-being of the economy.
 Useful utilization of excess public funds

 Government promotes and invests heavily in education and healthcare
 Rise in literacy rate leading to lesser discrimination against women
 Reduced cases of HIV/AIDs and other STDs
 Increase in employment opportunities
 Nicaraguan imports vital for the US leading to increased flow of remittance and
FDI
 Government provides incentives for growth of local industries
 Moving towards the achievement of major MDGs like poverty and education
Cause/Effect and Chronological Linkages between Events
 The support and aid from the US in conjunction with the increased investment
in education and healthcare would lead to a number of positive outcomes for
the Nicaraguan economy. The increase in literacy rate would help causes
related to women rights and would help build an educated generation of
women who are aware of aspects related to family planning, child birth and the
spread of AIDS/HIV and other STDs.
 Improvement in healthcare and the availability of healthcare facilities like

vaccines for infants would help reduce child mortality. Also, there would be a
91
sharp decrease in maternal deaths due to the availability of appropriate

medication and nurses in medical camps.
 Initiatives for the growth of local industries would promote jobs in the skilled
labour sector and encourage entrepreneurs to set up businesses of their own.
This in turn would lead to a high rate of growth of domestic industries.
 All these factors would help reinforce the Nicaraguan government’s

commitment towards boosting the economic well-being. This would help
promote the confidence that the US government would have over Nicaragua
and would help bring in more aid.
The efficiency of the government in investing in required infrastructure would lead to

economic upheaval. Better infrastructure implies better sanitation in the rural areas,
leading to reduced cases of water borne diseases which is one of the major
Millennium Development Goals.
Better education would help control gender discrimination and empower women to
take up equally important roles in the workplace. This would also lead to the
increased awareness of social and health issues such as contraception and birth
control and help curb the ever increasing issues of single mothers and STDs like
HIV/AIDS and gonorrhea. This helps in achieving important Millennium Development
Goal s related to gender discrimination, women rights and spread of HIV/AIDS.
The increase in the number of employment opportunities across local and private
sector industries would help reduce poverty among the labor force. This would also
lead to ample availability of basic facilities, thus painting a positive picture of the
economy, leading to an increase in the tourism industry.
Good ties with the US would imply good media coverage on Nicaragua, thus creating
a better image of the country to the outside world and generating help in the form of
aid and support. The strong ties with the US would also help keep the Leftist
ideologies in check, thereby leading to a neutral economy.
Implications for the Client Organizations
 Improved availability of basic amenities

 Increased dependence on US for all social and economic matters
 Improved educational facilities helping in increasing integrity and peace in
society
 Continued bi-lateral relations with the US
 Increased awareness leading to reduction in HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases
92
c. MAROONED ON THE ISLAND CALLED DEBT
Scenario Title
The word “marooned” in the title Marooned on the Island of Debt signifies the global
financial isolation that Nicaragua could experience in the future. This scenario starts
off with a combination of dependence for aid on China and Russia leading to
unhealthy ties with the US. This situation gets complicated due to the corrupt nature
of governance in Nicaragua making the leftists tiresome of the never ending
demands put forward. This sequence of events could lead to an economic slowdown
in Nicaragua and severe any aid coming into Nicaragua making it truly marooned in
debt resulting in a crisis like the “lost decade” debt crisis of Latin America.
Nicaragua is heavily dependent on the economically strong leftist allies who also led
to unhealthy ties with the US and loss of aid from US supported organizations like the
World Bank and IMF. The Nicaraguan government is convoluted with corruption with
policy makers filling their pockets rather than utilizing the aid pumped in to help the
citizens. The current economic situation is not healthy with poverty, health and
education being the major hurdles in the path to progress.
 Continued foreign investments into Nicaragua from leftist allies like China and
Russia.
 Reduced aid from the US
 Increased level of corruption in the government
 Increasing gulf between the rich and the poor leading to a rise in the GINI
coefficient
 Unhealthy economy leading to increase in street crime
 Resentment and disillusionment among the citizens towards the government
and elite in society.
 The use of extreme measures by the government to combat social unrest
 A single party rule leading to the Death of Democracy
 Restrictions on availability of aid from all strategic partners
 A debt crisis similar to the Lost Decade of Debt Crisis of Latin America
1. The influence of leftist ideology in policy making would have an adverse effect
on existing bilateral relationship with the US. This could lead to impositions on
Nicaraguan imports and end up with trade embargoes with the US. The US
soil would become unfriendly for Nicaraguan emigration which would reduce
93
the chances of chances of employment opportunities of the Nicaraguan in the

US. This would lead to a fall in the foreign currency through remittances
further adding to poverty as Remittances from US are one of the major
contributors of the GDP.
2. Reduced aid from the US will mean increased dependency of aid on China
and Russia. This combined with corruption in the government would lead to a
series of events that will further hamper the growth of local industry and
general quality and social progress of the society. The lack of tolerance of the
citizens towards the policies of the government would lead to social unrest and
culminate to stricter government law which in turn will lead to a single party
rule.
The increased level of corruption in the government would eat up all the resources
provided by the foreign allies. There would be strong disparities between the rich and
poor. Weak labor laws will lead to low wages resulting in poor living conditions of the
lower classes. This would hamper any progress made towards social upliftment as
mentioned in the Millennium Development Goals. The social disparity created would
deprive the poor from education which is against the goal to achieve universal
primary education. This also results in substantial rise in unemployment leading to
the rise of street crime. This vicious circle would add to the growing poverty and
unrest in the country.
The reduced aid from the US would lead to a strong bias in the attitude of the US
media towards Nicaragua. The blatant mismanagement of allocated funds by the
government officials would enrage the privately owned media houses of Nicaragua
leading to attempts to expose these corrupt practices to the public. The government
which is already tiled towards the left will not take this attempt lightly and move
towards silencing the media houses resulting in eventual nationalization and
censorship of Nicaraguan Media. At this point, the resentment against the
government and the elite of the society would boil over and people will resort to
taking the law in their own hands. The extreme measures taken by the government to
combat such social unrest would eventually lead to the abolishment of the
constitutional rights. This complex situation can only lead to one outcome: The fall of
the Nicaraguan Democracy and the return of the Single Party Rule. Russia and
China would eventually lose patience with the region and stop further financial aid to
Nicaragua.
Unhealthy ties with the US which hampered trade and the loss of potential
remittances would result in the slowdown of economy and a rise in inflation.
Eventually hyperinflation will lead to a loss in earning power leading to a crisis like the
“lost decade of debt crisis” which occurred in Latin America in the early 80’s.
Implications for the client organization
94
 Interference of Leftist elements in policy matters

 Cessation of constitutional democracy
 Decrease in international aid
 Suspension of constitutional rights
 Poverty remains largely perpetual
 Adverse effects on bi-lateral trade relations with the US
 Rise in debt leading to financial crisis in the Nicaraguan economy
95
d. “NICARAGUA AVANZA” – HACIA LA IQUIERDA
Nicaragua Moving forward-to the left
Scenario Title
“Nicaragua Avanza” is the nation slogan of Nicaragua which translates to Nicaragua

moving forward. This scenario is about US giving a cold shoulder to Nicaragua
because of its partnership to the leftist and how these partnerships combined with a
reduced dependence on the US and a government leads to sustainable economic
growth in Nicaragua. This scenario also talks about the vested interests of the leftist
allies in Nicaraguan politics and the possibility of the creation of a strategic leftist
base in Central America. Hence, the complete title “Nicaragua Avanza” Hacia La
Isquierda meaning Nicaragua “moving forward” to the left. This scenario also
showcases the impact of the tug of war of the capitalists and the socialists on
Nicaragua.
At present Nicaragua is heavily indebted to the US for aid and trade. Although the
Millennium Development Goal of Eradicating Extreme Poverty seems to have been
met; the majority of the population lives in the rural and the marginal areas under
poverty. The Nicaraguan government has undertaken numerous projects for the
social and economic upliftment of its people, but achievement seems highly
ambitious due to the internal corruption leading to mismanagement of funds. The
quasi leftist government is contemplating increased ties with strong economic powers
like China and Russia to help achieve economic growth.
 Diversification of trade and co-operative partnerships.

 Deteriorating relationship with the US
 Increases emphasis on regional partnerships
 Impact of the new common currency on sustainable growth of the economy
and overall well being of the community.
 Vested interests of Russia and China
1. Availability of funds from various sources meant for aid, combined with
existing corruption in the government and different forms in which the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) interferes in the economic, social and
96
political life of Nicaragua leads to a gross mismanagement of funds. This in

turn leads to a vicious circle of poverty where the majority of citizens continue
to live below the poverty line. This induces request for additional aid from the
leftist allies having an adverse impact on the Nicaraguan relationship with the
US.
2. Diversification of trade leads to a reduced dependence on the US which in turn

pushes Nicaragua towards stronger regional ties and advocating regional
solutions for regional problems. This results in increased Nicaraguan
participation in regional alliances like the Bolivarian Alliance for America
(ALBA), Central American Integration system (SICA) and Common Credit
Fund. On the other hand, diversification of co-operative partnerships leads to
strategic ties with strong leftist Economic Powers like China and Russia.
3. Sharing of Russian and Chinese expertise for Nicaraguan energy and

agricultural projects, and an assured supply of petroleum from ALBA led
schemes like PETROCARIBE would boost small and medium scale industries
and leading to economic and political stability in Nicaragua.
4. The strong dependency that Nicaragua will have with Russia and China will
have the cold shoulder from the US, would influence decision making and
implementation leading to a strong hold of Nicaraguan politics by the leftists.
The economic growth that Nicaragua would experience through its regional and
political allies would lead to heavy investments in Education and Healthcare. The
allies will stem the growth of corruption in the Nicaraguan government leading to a
substantial improvement in the health of man and machine. Improvement in
education facilities would lead to an increase in literacy rate among people, moving
towards achieving one of the major Millennium development Goals of Universal
Primary Education. Education will also help curb discrimination towards women,
increasing awareness about using contraceptives and family planning measures
which will curb the rising growth rate of population and also stem the spread of
diseases like AIDS/HIV and other STD’s. Nicaraguan society will move towards
gender equality and promotion of women rights, which is again one of the major
Millennium Development Goals.
Overall growth of a sustained economy will lead to better domestic employment

opportunities for the Nicaraguan citizens. The Nicaraguan society is now moving
toward a state where the GINI Coefficient is continually on the fall and the Gross
National Happiness (GNH) in on the rise. GINI coefficient is a measure of statistical
dispersion developed by the Italian statistician Corrado Gini. It is a measure of the
inequality of a distribution and is commonly used as a measure of inequality of
income or wealth. Gross National Happiness is a concept that was developed in an
97
attempt to define an indicator that measures quality of life or social progress in more
holistic and psychological terms than gross domestic product (GDP).
Every coin has two sides. The increased help provided by the economically strong
leftist allies comes with a flip side. Since there are no free lunches in Economics, the
aid and support provided by Russia and China would make Nicaragua indebted to
their “so called new friends”. In the long run, this would re-create a strategic leftist
block in the Central American region, which would be against the interest of the US
and unfavorable for the stability of the region and could result in a conflict like the
Cuban Missile Crisis.
Implication for the client organization
 Increased awareness leading to reduction in HIV/AIDS and epidemic diseases

 Reduced dependence on US for foreign aid
 Stable economic environment in Central America
 Good bi-lateral trade relationships with China would benefit Nicaragua in the
absence of the US
 Society moving towards gender equality
 Improvement in rural health care and education
 Improved maternal health
 Sustainable economic growth with social equality leading to a better sense of
content
 Increased vested interests of China, Russia and Iran towards Decision and
policy making in Nicaragua.
98
99
12. ICEBERG ANALYSIS
a. Rise in unemployment RISE IN

UNEMPLOYMENT
RESTRICTION ON EMMIGRATION
LACK OF TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION
LACK OF INVESTMENT IN INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
MULTINATIONALS WRAPPING UP BUSINESSES DUE TO POOR ECONOMY
UNHEALTHY ECONOMY LEADING TO COLLAPSE OF TOURISM
NATURAL DISASTERS DESTROYING INFRASTRUCTURE
POPULATION EXPLOSION
STAKEHOLDERS:
 The common man

RISE IN INFLATION  UNDP / IMF
 US and other foreign
countries providing aid
In Nicaragua, a large number of people are jobless, which forces them to live in poor
conditions. In spite of influx of money from international organizations, foreign help in
the form of technology, professional education and investment in the rural areas, the
government is not able to generate sufficient job opportunities for the people.
VICIOUS CIRCLE
 Rise in inflation: Soaring commodity prices in the country reduce the

purchasing power of the common people. This has an adverse impact on the
job market as small and medium size industries try to compensate their losses
because of high prices by reducing the number of employees.
 Population Explosion: The increasing number of people in the country
intensifies the pressure in the job market and consequently increases the ratio
of unemployed people.
 Natural disasters destroying infrastructure: Natural disasters such as
volcanoes, cyclones etc. ruin the existing infrastructure and slow the progress
of new developments. This in turn would discourage entrepreneurs from
starting new ventures in the country.
 Unhealthy economy leading to collapse of tourism: A poor economy will
not able to provide good facilities to tourists in country, which would fail to lure
the attraction of tourists towards Nicaragua’s tourist attractions. Reduced
inflow of tourists in the country would lead to the loss of income of those who
are dependent on the tourism industry for their livelihood.
 Multinational wrapping up businesses due to poor economy: Poor
economy would fail to provide basic facilities to multinational organizations,
which would discourage them to further invest in the country and consequently
wrap up their operations.
 Lack of investment in the industrial sector: The lack of investments by the
government for the progress of the industrial sector along with the disinterest
shown by many international organizations to expand their business in
Nicaragua would hamper any growth in the economy. Hence government
would not be able to meet the job requirement for the growing population of
the country.
 Lack of technical and vocational education: The lack of technical or
professional education among the workforce in the country can keep away
from obtaining relevant jobs.
 Restriction on emigration: The ban imposed by the neighboring countries on
the emigration of Nicaraguan labor coupled with the global economic
slowdown would increase the number of unemployed workers in the country.
STAKEHOLDERS
 The common man

 UNDP/IMF
 US & other foreign countries providing aid
 Central American neighboring countries
 The Nicaraguan government
 International organizations
ICEBERG CONCLUSION
The discussed vicious circle factors along with stakeholders have a negative impact
on the efforts made to decrease the unemployment rate in the country.
102
b. Reduced cases of water borne diseases
REDUCED CASES OF WATER

BORNE DISEASES
BETTER SANITATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND AWARENESS
IMPORVED MINING TECHNIQUES LEADING TO ELIMINATION OF

HARMFUL DISPOSAL OF MERCURY IN WATER
MAJOR RESTORATION OF LAKE NICARAGUA
PROPER DISPOSAL OF ANIMAL CARCASSAS
INCREASED AWARENESS AMOMG PEOPLE ABOUT

WATER FILTERATION TECHNIQUES LIKE CALCINATION
STRICT IMPLEMENTATION OF LAWS ON

DISPOSAL OF INDUSTRIAL WASTE
STAKEHOLDERS:
STRICT IMPLEMENTATION OF
LAWS ON SETTING UP OF  The common man
INDUSTRIES / OIL REFINERIES  Nicaragua government
AWAY FROM WATER BODIES  UNDP / IMF
AND HUMAN SETTLEMENT  Industries
 Local law enforcers
There is a very high prevalence of water borne diseases in Nicaragua despite the
huge amount of funds being provided to Nicaragua, improvements made in the health
care system from Government investment and doctors & nurses being provided by
US. We wanted to go deep into this issue and found out the root causes of the high
occurrences of water borne diseases. In our ice berg analysis we came out with the
following factors which contributed to the above mentioned scenario:
VICIOUS CIRCLE
 Improved health care and treatment of water borne diseases: An

improvement in health care services and the construction of healthcare
infrastructures will reduce the number of people affected by water borne
diseases. Investments in health care will also include spreading awareness
among people about the do’s and the don’ts to prevent them from getting
affected by such diseases.
 Better sanitation infrastructure and awareness: A majority of the people do
not have access to proper sanitation facilities. Over the time this leads to
polluting the ground water, lake water and the soil. Better sanitation facilities
will lead to reduction in the pollution of water and in turn the water borne
diseases.
 Improved mining techniques leading to elimination of harmful disposal
of mercury in water: Often Mercury is used in mining of Gold in Nicaragua.
However, improvement in the way the mining wastes are disposed can reduce
the water pollution it used to cause and in turn the cases of water borne
diseases among masses.
 Restoration of lake Nicaragua: Industrial wastes, domestic wastes and the
wastes from Oil refineries all end up in the lake Nicaragua and this lake water
is used by people inhabiting on the coastal areas. Treatment of this water is
very important to make it again fit for human utilization and drinking.
 Proper disposal of animal carcasses: Animal carcasses need to be properly
disposed before it starts decaying in wide open especially near water
resources like well or a lake.
 Increased awareness among people about water filtration techniques like
calcinations: Even if the source of water is polluted, people can still avoid
water borne diseases to a large extent by using techniques such as filtration
and calcinations. So, an increased awareness among people about the
techniques which can be used to treat water has had a knock on effect on the
number and severity of water borne diseases among the masses.
STAKEHOLDERS
 The common man
 UNDP/IMF
 Local law enforcers
 Industries
ICEBERG CONCLUSION
The discussed vicious circle factors along with the stakeholders have a positive
impact on the number and severity of water borne diseases among the masses.
105
c. Increase in street crime
INCREASE IN STREET
CRIME
FRUSTRATED SOCIETY
ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
RISE OF DRUG CARTELS
INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
POROUS BORDERS BETWEEN NEIGHBOURS LEADING TO CROSS BORDER

MOVEMENT ON ANTI – SOCIAL ELEMENTS
CORRUPT LAW ENFORCEMENT INFLUENCED BY MAFIA
INCREASED DEPENDENCE OF YOUTH ON DRUGS
POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE

STAKEHOLDERS:
ECONOMIC DISPARITY
The common man
UNDP / IMF
ETHNIC DISCRIMINATION
There is an increase in street crime, which cause extra burden to the family and
society. Government is not able to provide proper education for the poor to prevent
crimes. This causes huge impact on the economic environment.
VICIOUS CIRCLE
 Frustrated society: Corruption of the government arouses the

dissatisfaction of the society. Growing number of people conduct anti-social
behaviours(e.g. crime)
 Economic slowdown: Fewer job opportunities provided under the economic
slowdown. People lives in poor condition and have no access to food/money.
 Rise of drug cartels: As drug spread through the country, increasing
number of drug users create social disorders.
 Porous borders between neighbours leading to cross border
movement on anti-social elements: Nicaragua situated between Costa
Rica & Honduras. Therefore, illegal forces could easily cross the borders into
Nicaragua.
 Increased dependence of youth on drugs: Due to lack of education,
young people addict to drugs easily and can’t get rid of them. They could
only commit crime to gain money buying drugs.
 Corrupt law enforcement influenced by mafia: Mafia interferes the
political power to enforce legal action in maintaining the society order.
 Increase in unemployment: Lack of job opportunity in Nicaragua results in
people living in poor condition. This in turn leads to increase of crimes.
 Politically motivated violence: people motivated or supported by the
political leaders get involved in the street crime.
 Economic disparity: The rich dominates and exploits the poor. The poor
would need to struggle to survive and they don’t receive education.
 Ethnic discrimination: Social inequality affects common people’s
contentment with the society hence caused social problems.
STAKEHOLDERS
 The common man
 UNDP/IMF
ICEBERG CONCLUSION
The vicious circle factors resulting in increasing street crimes are mostly because of a
corruptive government, which can not be solved immediately.
108
MAJORITY POPULATION
d. Majority population below poverty line BELOW POVERTY LINE
CORRUPTION
HIGH RATE OF
EMMIGRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL
ABUSE
INCREASE IN INCREASE IN CRIME /
NUMBER OF SEX DRUG TRAFIKING /
WORKERS & SINGLE INCREASED GAP GANGS
MOTHERS BETWEEN RICH
AND POOR
LACK OF
INVESTMENT IN
LACK OF INVESTMENT
HUMAN CAPITAL UNEMPLOYMENT ON TECHNOLOGY &
LACK OF CIVIC
TECHNICAL
GENDER AMENITIES
INFERIOR INFRASTRUCTURE
DISCRIMINATION
CONNECTIVITY
BETWEEN CITIES LACK OF SEX SPREAD OF HIV /
EDUCATION AIDS / EPIDEMICS
LACK OF
LACK OF
HOSPITALS
SCHOOLS
LACK OF
LACK OF FEMALE INVESTMENT IN SME
LITERACY RATE
CORRUPTION IMF’S CONDITIONALITY

REGARDING AID: BIAS
TOWARDS A STAKEHOLDERS:
PERMENANT
RESTRICTION ON  The common man
PUBLIC SECTOR  UNDP / IMF
INVESTMENT  US and other foreign
countries providing aid
In spite of all the aid that the government was receiving from international
organization and all the schemes that were being undertaken by the government, a
majority of the population is still under the poverty line and a significant amount of
this majority was under the extreme poverty line.
VICIOUS CIRCLE
 IMF's conditionality regarding aid - Bias towards a permanent

restriction on public sector investment: IMF is providing the fund with
some clauses attached to it, such as :
1) The strict control over fiscal performance i.e. setting inflexible goals in
relation to government spending, public deficit, the amount of resources
the government should transfer to the central bank, the accumulation of
international reserves.
2) It spreads over a reformulation of the legal framework that regulates
municipalities and determines the scope of local governments and the
system of budget transfers directed towards them, as well as over a
comprehensive review of the “Tax Code” that was recently approved with
broad consensus following extensive consultation at the National
Assembly.
3) It demands reforms to the “Energy Stability Law” in order to prevent it from
having control over fuel prices (Nicaragua’s margins on fuels double the
regional average - and this in the poorest country within the area) and to
other regulations constraining the exercise of monopoly power by oil
companies that import, refine, store and distribute fuels.
All these factors were pegging back the development and prosperity of the
country and in turn had a knock on effect on the poverty levels in
Nicaragua.
 Corruption: Corruption has a major impact on the uplift of the society. No
matter how much of aid is being provided by the IMF or the leftists, unless
that fund is channelized properly by the government, the poverty level will
not diminish in Nicaragua. In our storyline, a major part of the aid was
being blown away either by corrupt government officials or by inefficient
management.
 Lack of investment in human capital: Government is not investing on
human capital to improve the condition of society.
 Unemployment: Unemployment rate of country is still very high, which
forces the people to fall in the dearth of poverty.
 Inferior connectivity between cities: The lack of proper connectivity
inside the country refrain people to avail the facilities provided by
government, such as schools, hospitals & job opportunities. It keeps the
people to live in poverty.
 Lack of schools: Due to the insufficient number of schools, more of the
people remain illiterate and not able to earn the decent livelihood.
 Lack of female literacy rate: Illiterate women cannot help the family with
some earning, so the whole pressure of taking care of the family remains
with the earning men. Hence family has to survive on whatever is available.
 Lack of sex education: lacking in sex education, people cannot opt the
family planning policies and end up with the number of children, they can
feed. This increases the financial burden on family and family becomes
poor.
 Gender discrimination: Gender discrimination will cause the women of
family to refrain out of job, which bring the poverty in family.
 Lack of civic amenities: In the absence of basic civic amenities, such as
clean water, food, hospitals, primary schools, people keep living in the
poverty.
 Lack of Hospitals: Lack of hospital many times causes the permanent
illness/death of the earning head of the family, which in turn cause the fall
in the trap of poverty.
 Lack of investment of technology & technical infrastructure: Lack of
technology refrain the people to use the latest advancement in the world,
which can be used to earn more money and eradicate poverty.
 Spread of HIV/AIDS/Epidemics: The diseases such as HIV/AIDS and the
spread of epidemic caused the death in the family, which increase the
pressure on the family to feed the left ones.
 Increase in crime/drug trafficking/gangs: The continuous poverty
motivates the youth of country to trap in the street crime/drug
trafficking/gangs to earn the livelihood.
 Increased gap between rich and poor: The gap between rich and poor is
restricting the growth of poor as rich used to take the advantage of poor by
offering them low wages.
 Increase in number of sex worker and single mother: Absence of male
earning hand forced the women to involve in sex work so that they can
feed their children and keep living their life under poverty.
 Environmental abuse: The deteriorating environment, because of careless
human act, is decreasing the productivity of land and hence decreasing the
yield. Also the deteriorating tourist palaces attract less number of tourists,
on which a significant portion of country’s population is dependant.
 High rate of emigration: Unemployment caused people to migrate in the
neighboring countries to earn the living. Many of these people leave their
family back at home, which have to support themselves, which causes
poverty in the family.
STAKEHOLDERS
 The common man

 UNDP/IMF
ICEBERG CONCLUSION
111
The discussed vicious circle factors along with stakeholders have a negative impact
on the efforts made to decrease the poverty in society.
13. IMPLICATIONS VS SCENARIOS
When the implications from the scenarios were mapped out to each of the scenarios,
we observe that certain implications are associable to at least three of the four
scenarios. These implications or plausible outcomes are the essence of this report
and would be play vital roles in determining the progress towards achieving the
slated Millennium Development Goals.
1. Disbursable aid available when required – Nicaragua is one of the poorest

countries of Central America. Although there have been opportunities of
improvement in the social and economic systems of the country, little has
been done to fully utilize the aid and support received from its international
partnerships on this front. Nicaragua would progress towards social upheaval
and achievement of major Millennium Development Goals with a strong
combination of abundant disbursable aid when required and an efficient
government whose priorities are towards the people of the country.
112
2. Improved availability of basic amenities – The majority of Nicaraguans live

in poverty with one-fifth living in extreme poverty. No matter which direction
the country is taken through, improvement in the standard of living of the
people living is imperative to the progress of the country. Availability of basic
amenities like toilets, hospitals, drug stores, schools, shelter etc. plays a vital
role in helping the lower classes to sustain and earn for their bread and water,
thereby directing the country towards achieving the Millennium Development
Goals.
3. Increased awareness leading to reduction in HIV/AIDS and epidemic

diseases – In order to curb the spread of the life-threatening and
discriminative diseases like HIV/AIDS, it is of at most importance that the
people of Nicaragua are taught about matters relating to basic sex education,
the use of contraception, the concept of family planning and the plight of single
mothers in the society. This awareness alone can save the country from falling
into the pits of epidemic diseases and STDs and help progress towards
achieving major Millennium Development Goals like curbing the spread of
HIV/AIDS and other diseases and increasing women rights in the society.
4. Improvement in rural health care and education - Education, primary or

otherwise, is the key to sustaining human life. Without knowledge, we are as
brain-dead as the animals we see around us. Healthcare is another vital piece
of the jigsaw puzzle. For Nicaragua to step out of the social plight and poverty
it now experiences, it is essential to make sure that adequate education and
health care projects are taken up and invested upon. The future of a country
depends on the future of its people. The right medical care coupled with the
right knowledge can drive the country forward towards achieving most of the
slated Millennium Development Goals.
113
14. APPENDIX 1: EARLY INDICATORS
Given that there are diverging impacts on the achievement of the UNDP
MDGs from each of the four scenarios, early indicators are presented for
each scenario so that these first signs of change can provide a forewarning
of the fundamental changes (whether positive or negative) that are likely
to result over time.
114
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115
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120
Population - Since the 1950s, Nicaragua has had a persistently high rate of
population
 http://www.paho.org/english/dd/ais/cp_558.htm
PAHO Basic Health Indicator Data Base

Nicaragua - Environment
 http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Americas/Nicaragua-
ENVIRONMENT.html
Environmental Issues in Nicaragua

 http://www.fsdinternational.org/ntlopps/country/nicaragua/environment
Nicaragua Infant mortality rate

 http://www.indexmundi.com/nicaragua/infant_mortality_rate.html
At a glance: Nicaragua
 http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/nicaragua_statistics.html
Controversy Over Pregnancy-Related Death Toll

 http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=51141
Resources and power

 http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/413855/Nicaragua/40977/Resourc
es-and-power
Sea Turtles in Nicaragua
121

 http://www.vianica.com/go/specials/4-sea_turtles_nicaragua.html
Nicaragua’s largest lake has several names: the indigenous tribes called it Cocibolca
 http://www.vianica.com/go/specials/18-lake-nicaragua.html
El Lake Nicaragua or Lake Cocibolca (8624 km2),

 http://www.edicioneslupita.com/nicaragua/lagoi.html
Shmoop.com (2010) Type of Economic Systems

 http://www.shmoop.com/economic-systems/types.html
Index mundi (2010) Nicaragua GDP - real growth rate

 http://www.indexmundi.com/nicaragua/gdp_real_growth_rate.html
Index mundi (2010) Nicaragua Inflation rate (consumer prices)

 http://www.indexmundi.com/nicaragua/inflation_rate_(consumer_prices).html
ECLAC (2009) Nicaragua

 http://www.eclac.org/publicaciones/xml/3/38063/Nicaragua.pdf
Encyclopedia of the Nations Nicaragua (2000) Infrastructure, power, and

communications
 http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/economies/Americas/Nicaragua-
INFRASTRUCTURE-POWER-AND-COMMUNICATIONS.html
Trista Winnie (2007) Top 5 Investment Opportunities in Nicaragua

 http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/top-5-investment-opportunities-in-
nicaragua-51147.aspx
122
IMF (2010) The IMF and the Millennium Development Goals

 http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/mdg.htm
FenixRetreat.com (2010) Nicaragua’s Economy Continues on Upward Trend

 http://fenixretreat.com/2010/07/nicaraguas-economy-continues-on-upward-
trend/

 http://www.wikigender.org/index.php/Gender_Equality_in_Nicaragua
Karla Jacobs (29/08/2009) : Education in Nicaragua

 http://www.tortillaconsal.com/education29-8-09.html
Peter Sandiford - Why Do Child Mortality Rates Fall?

 http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/reprint/81/1/30.pdf
 http://www.indexmundi.com/nicaragua/millennium-development-goals.html
 http://www.cepal.org/MDG/noticias/paginas/6/35596/Ficha_ODM_7en.pdf
Millennium Development Goals Indicators,(2008)

 http://www.eclac.org/MDG/noticias/paginas/4/35594/Ficha_ODM_6en.pdf
 http://www.amnestyusa.org/demand-dignity/maternal-health-is-a-human-
right/nicaragua/page.do?id=1021224
Amnesty International Publication (2009)

123
 http://www.amnestyusa.org/uploads/Nicaragua_abortion_ban_report_
%20English.pdf
124

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Day/Date 1) EIBE Subject - What 2) What actions do we take to Action by?

that every individual person got

anyway be subject to discussion

Tue 1400-1500 : First story

Oct 1720 workbook for iteration #1 the next week. Hence, we

uncertainties and their

We realized that by following the

Day 2 Mon conduct the brainstorming facilitator going through each of

could go down, have some fresh

04 Oct huge amount of 450 slips on the wall and simply

clearly came out but it was

of clusters featured in the high

We had one of our clusters

tough time with naming the

next morning 0900 Hrs we

Wednesday evening 1430 Hrs

Iteration-2 What would be the We knew that getting all four

interrelated links in it.

lot of information to be delivered

all agreed to gather at room 526

to be presented a little bit as the

PPT prepared. We agreed to