Na#onal
Energy
Independence


Plan
(NEIP)

www.neiplan.org

Bill
Bailey,
James
Mason


The
NEIP
Working
Group

The
Solar
Grand
Plan
(SGP)


Scien&fic
American
Magazine,
January
2008

 Outline

•  Objec#ves
and
 •  Solu%on:
The
Case
for

Mo#va#on
 CAES
and
HVDC

–  The
Two
Threats
 •  America’s
Two
Op#ons

–  The
Limited
Time
 –  The
Problems
with

Available

Patching

–  The
NEIP’s
Ten
Goals

–  The
Gulf
Challenge
 –  The
Advantages
of

Replacement

•  The
Problems
with

Conven#onal
Thinking
 •  The
NEIP

–  Threats
and
Solu#ons
 –  The
Two
Paths
to

Are
Not
the
Same
Size
 Independence

–  The
IntermiOency
 –  Plan
Execu#on
via
The

Problem
 Public
U#lity
Model

•  Summary

 Two
Threats
to
Na#onal
Security

•  Serial
unaffordability
(not
exhaus#on)
of

each
fossil
fuel,
star#ng
with
oil,
within

the
next
two
decades.

•  Inability
to
meet
energy
demands
by

mid‐century.

Oil
Sources

 US
Oil
(Q‐Btu)


*1 Q-Btu is 1 quadrillion Btu. Since the U.S. uses about 100 Q-Btu of
primary energy per year, one Q-Btu can be considered to be 1% of
U.S. annual energy use today.
Cause
of
Unaffordability


With
NEIP


Supply‐Demand
Imbalance

A.
Serial
Unaffordability

 B.
A
Tipping
Point
Must
Exist

+



2008
=$144

• 

Supply‐demand


imbalance
and
rising

 $120

costs
have
and
will
drive
up

prices.

• 

World
supply
rates

are
flaOening
(disputed

by
some).

• 

There
must
be
a

#pping
point
that
crashes
the

world
economy.

• 

Deffeyes
proposed
$300
per

barrel—at
2008
produc#on
rates,


15%
of
world
GDP.
 World
Oil
Produc&on
and
Price
(Deffeyes,
2008)

 C.
Hydrocarbon
Domino
Effect
(HDE)

Sources
of
America’s
100
Q‐Btu
of
 Sources


energy
each
year
with
Oil

37.1,
 40

35

37.1


Gas
23.8,
and
Coal
22.5
Q‐Btu.
 30

25

23.8
 22.5


20

15
 7.3
 8.5

Imagine
the
“waves,”
below,
to
 10

5


have
the
same
heights
as
the

0


actual
U.S.
usage
in
2008.

Then,
when
oil
(37.1)
must
be

replaced,
gas
will
have
to
produce

60.9
Q‐Btu
(23.8
+
37.1),

2.5
#mes

current
gas
produc#on.


Then,
when
coal
replaces
gas…

 The
Two
Threats


First
Threat:
Serial
Unaffordability


 
Oil:
between
now
and
2030.


 
Gas:
a
decade
or
two
later,
if
no
fracking.


 
Coal:
2060,
or—if
other
uses—sooner.



Second
Threat:
Energy
ShorSall
by
2050 



 
50%
popula#on
growth,
electric
vehicles,


and
climate
change
requirements.


 The
Gulf
Challenge
and
the
NEIP

•  U.S.
annual
primary
energy
use
is
100
Q‐Btu.

•  Annual
oil
use
is
40
Q‐Btu.

•  Oil
imports
are
28
Q‐Btu.

•  The
Gulf
Challenge:
reduce
oil
by
8
Q‐Btu.


•  The
NEIP’s
two
paths:


–  Path
A:
oil
reduc#on
of
28
Q‐Btu
within
15
yrs


(including
8
Q‐Btu
in
ten
years).


–  Path
B:
end
86%
of
fossil
fuel
use
before
2050.

 Time
Available

•  America
has
one
to
two
decades
before

oil
becomes
unaffordable

(not

exhausted,
unaffordable).

•  Natural
gas
and
coal
will
follow
oil
in

unaffordability.

•  About
one
decade
remains
to
develop

and
to
ini#ate
a
solu#on.

 NEIP
Goals
1‐5

(1)
Achievable
now:
Use
exis#ng
resources

and
exis#ng
technology.

(2)
Reliable:
Match
or
exceed
exis#ng

reliabili#es.

(3)
Domes#cally‐sourced
for
strategic
energy

security.

(4)
Clean:
Low
in
nega#ve
economic

externali#es.

(5)
Capacious:
Easily
expanded
and
contracted


(decommissioned).

 NEIP
Goals
6‐10

(6)
Durable
for
at
least
the
rest
of
the
century.

(7)
Affordable:
Priced
no
higher
than
current

levels.

(8)
Alignment
of
public
and
private
interests.

(9)
Timely:
Ending
the
need
to
import
oil
within

15
years.

(10)
Self‐funding:
No
subsidies
needed.

Global
Solar
and
Wind

Capacity

The
Threats
and
the
“Solu#ons”
Are
Not
of

the
Same
Size

•  The
Gulf
Challenge’s
8
Q‐Btu
oil
reduc#on
in
a

decade
is
a
good
first
step.

•  A
larger
plan
is
needed:

–  Rapidly
eliminate
all
dependence
on
foreign
oil.

–  Na#onal
in
scope.

–  Encompass
all
fossil
fuel
use.

•  Solu#ons
in
the
public
discourse
set
sights
too
low.

Why?

 The
IntermiOency
Problem

•  When
the
wind
does
not
blow
and
the
sun
does
not

shine,
there
is
no
energy.

•  Wind
and
solar
can
provide
ample
energy
to
replace

coal
and
natural
gas
if
this
problem
can
be
solved.

•  IntermiZency
is
just
an
engineering
problem.

•  Bulk
energy
storage
is
the
solu#on.

•  The
two
leading
candidates
are
pumped
hydro
and

compressed
air
energy
storage,
CAES.

–  In
opera#on
in
Huntorf,
Germany
since
1978
and
McIntosh,

AL,
since
1993.

CAES—1978,
Huntorf,
Germany

 The
Case
for
CAES
and
HVDC


A:
Solar
or
Wind
Source.
 D:
HVDC
Na#onal
low
loss

B:
CAES
energy
storage.
 direct
current
transmission

C:
Uplink
point
for
HVDC
 grid.

(10%
losses
AZ
to
NY.)

na#onal
grid.
 E:
Local
Grid

to
customers.

America
Has
Two
Op#ons

•  Patch:
add
new
supply
to
the
fossil

system.

•  Replace:
build
a
new
na#onal
energy

system.

 Patch
the
Fossil
System

•  Likely
to
become
unaffordable
long
before

2050—ever
more
difficult
explora#on.

–  Cost:
$26
trillion
worldwide
to
2050
(IEA).

–  Fact:
Conven#onal
oil
fields
declining
6.7%
per
yr

(a
50%
decline
in
10
years)
(IEA).

–  $26
trillion
will
have
to
be
recouped
at
the
pump

and
the
meter.


•  How
long
will
fossil
provide
affordable
fuel?

Replace
with
a
21st
Century
System

•  Engineered
system,
designed
to
be


–  Ample,
clean,
domes#c.

–  Have
fixed
prices,
at
current
rates
(no
need
to

explore).

•  The
NEIP’s
two
paths,
cos#ng
$2
trillion
and

$15
trillion
by
2050,
are
self‐funding
from

energy
sales
through
the
system
that
exceed

$1
trillion
per
year.

Electrifica#on
Saves
$1
Trillion
per
Year

•  2/3
of
fossil
fuels’

chemical
energy
is
wasted

as
heat.

•  Electric
machines
have
a

3:1
efficiency
advantage

over
fossil.

•  With
oil
at
$100,
the
U.S.

energy
burden
is

$1.6

trillion
(2007
figures).

•  The
NEIP’s
electrifica#on

and
other
measures
save

about
$1
trillion
per
year.

 NEIP:
Path
A,
Path
B

Two
Paths

•  Path
A
eliminates
the
need
to
import
oil


(28
Q‐Btu)
within
15
years.

•  Path
B
responds
to
the
second
(longer
term)

threat
by
elimina#ng
86%
of
fossil
fuel
use

before
mid‐century.

Path
A:
Eliminate
28
Q‐Btu
of
Oil

 Light
Trucks
and
Cars—13.4
Q‐Btu

• The
NEIP
is
not
an
austerity

program.

• Current
vehicle
size
and
weight
are

assumed
in
all
the
NEIP
modeling.

• The
electrical
efficiency
advantage
 Honda
Clarity
FCV

is
significant
over
internal

combus#on
engines.

• The
NEIP
works
with
both
modes.

• FCV
seems
to
have
the
edge.

• Fueling

is
a
major
difference.

Chevy
Volt
PHEV

Path
B

Plan
Execu#on
via
Public
U#lity
Model

Aligning
public
and
private
interests:

•  Most
efficient
mode
(evidence
that
this
mode

provides
the
lowest
price
to
the
customer).

•  No
quarterly
profit
burden.

•  Final
ownership
of
the
system
remains
with

the
rate
payer.

 Mee#ng
the
Gulf
Challenge

The
NEIP
solu#on:

–  Provides
environmental
sustainability
by
deploying
solar

and
wind
on
a
grand
scale.

–  Uses
demonstrated
technology
that
can
be
implemented

today
(yet
allows
for
ongoing
improvements).

–  Achieves
the
rapid
5ming
envisioned
by
the
Gulf
Challenge
—and
provides
a
bold
path
for
con#nuing
the
process
to

total
energy
independence.

–  Demonstrates
how
these
changes
can
be
self‐funding.

–  Proposes
a
public
u#lity
model
for
plan
execu5on
and

investment
to
assure
that
energy
will
be
owned
by
and

affordable
to
the
American
people.

 NEIP
Summary

•  Features:

–  Wind
and
solar,
built
around
CAES
and
HVDC.

–  Does
not
preclude
other
non‐emiung
sources.

–  Possibility:
run
out
of
fossil
fuels
before
complete.

•  Results:

–  Meets
all
ten
NEIP
Goals.

–  Preserves
na#onal
energy
security.

–  Exceeds
the
Gulf
Challenge
criteria.

–  Exceeds
Copenhagen
Global
Warming
Targets.

–  Saves
$1
trillion
per
year.