0

demanda pronostico error error absoluto

n=3 Xt xt et = xt - xt abs(et)
1 130
2 145
3 153
4 162 148.432182935291 13.5678170647093 13.567817064709
5 170 158.13387807533 11.8661219246704 11.866121924671
6 100 166.292581245764 -66.2925812457638 66.292581245764
7 120 120.000000366788 -3.6678812876E-07 3.667881288E-07
8 151 123.995923405287 27.0040765947128 27.004076594713
9 134 138.766819587464 -4.76681958746445 4.7668195874645
10 139 134.690358082864 4.30964191713565 4.3096419171357
11 151 139.927281705191 11.0727182948086 11.072718294809
12 164 146.657768647981 17.3422313520186 17.342231352019
13 159 158.351868012251 0.648131987748997 0.648131987749
14 171 158.646319019763 12.3536809802368 12.353680980237
15 182 168.091765778286 13.9082342217138 13.908234221714
16 162 176.956073766264 -14.9560737662643 14.956073766264
17 190 166.46466072263 23.5353392773698 23.53533927737
18 184.409116300557
3.54232276063172 15.830247755815

t w
1 0.143399700114 ME =
2 0.15870311877 MAE =
3 0.697897187574
suma 1.000000006458
α 0.5

demanda
t pronostico
xt xt
1 4941 4941
2 4420 4941
3 3163 4680.5
4 2898 3921.75
5 3482 3409.875
6 4143 3445.9375
7 2220 3794.46875
8 2629 3007.23438
9 2017 2818.11719
10 2761 2417.55859
11 3140 2589.2793
12 3507 2864.63965
13 4661 3185.81982
14 4320 3923.40991
15 4121.70496

α 0.9

demanda
t pronostico
xt xt
1 23369 23369
2 19530 23369
3 13448 19913.9
4 27930 14094.59
5 24749 26546.459
6 24065 24928.7459
7 14313 24151.3746
8 21808 15296.8375
9 29591 21156.8837
10 17389 28747.5884
11 20752 18524.8588
12 21264 20529.2859
13 11366 21190.5286
14 20964 12348.4529
15 21463 20102.4453
16 24866 21326.9445
17 18529 24512.0945
18 10388 19127.3094
19 16634 11261.9309
20 16096.7931
 error
absoluto
abs
0
521
1517.5
1023.75
72.125
697.0625
1574.46875 Chart Title
378.234375 6000
801.117188
5000
343.441406
550.720703 4000
642.360352
3000
1475.18018
396.590088 2000

713.825038 1000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Column G Column H

error
absoluto
abs
0
3839
6465.9
13835.41
1797.459
863.7459 Chart Title
9838.37459
35000
6511.16254
8434.11625 30000
11358.5884 25000
2227.14116
20000
734.714116
15000

10000

5000
 30000

25000

20000

9824.52859 15000
8615.54714 10000
1360.55471
5000
3539.05547
5983.09445 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
8739.30945
5372.06906 Column G Column H

5754.72478