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GLOBAL SCENARIOS OF

SHIPPING IN 2030
o s s ib le s c e n a r io s
Three p
for the future 2 Summary

Rough Seas

C ontent
In the world of Rough Seas, scarcity of resources is predominant. Climate change adds further
stress. Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free markets. Wealth is divided unequally 4 Foreword
among nations, resulting in tension. The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally and national
governments control ports.

Yellow River 6 How are scenarios made?


In Yellow River, China dominates the global arena economically, geopolitically and in shipping. China
is no longer the world’s cheapest manufacturing region. Instead, labour and resource-intensive manu-
facturing has moved to Africa and other Asian countries. Economic growth is significantly slower in
the West and climate change is tackled only on a regional level – no global agreements exist.

10 Rough Seas
Open Oceans
The world of Open Oceans is a strongly globalised one. Global mega-corporations and megacities have 14 Yellow River
gained power over the nation state. Governments cooperate on the governance of climate issues and
free trade protocols. Climate change is perceived as an opportunity, and innovating green solutions is a
lifestyle. Highly optimised and integrated large scale logistics systems support global trade. 18 Open Oceans

22 Timeline
WHY WHAT HOW
To support our strategy work and Three challenging and different, By combining expert input,
provide a foundation for finding yet plausible, scenarios about quality research, hard work, Sources
ways of being prepared for the what shipping could look like in dedication and a bit of
future, together with the industry. the year 2030. imagination.

3
S e p t e m b e r 1 , 2 0 1 0

For centuries, shipping has enabled collaboration around the The future of shipping is determined by economics, techno- individually. Other factors shaping the future are out of
world. Today, modern shipping business is a complex, global logical development, geopolitical trends, energy resources, our control, but we can prepare ourselves by means of
puzzle made out of many pieces. The past few years alone social values, environmental aspects, as well as by the ship- scenario work. Therefore, we are sharing the scenarios
have brought about fundamental changes. The significance ping industry itself. How can we prepare for the future? with you now, in order to stretch imaginations, facilitate
of East Asia has increased rapidly, spearheaded by China, debate and, hopefully, generate new strategies and
and we have not yet seen the end of the financial crisis that We at Wärtsilä feel that in order for us to provide our custom- modes of cooperation.
began in 2008. We could even say that globalisation as we ers with the best solutions in the future we need to under-
know it would not have happened without shipping. stand this fascinating topic even better. These scenarios I invite you to contribute, to challenge us and to
provide plausible alternatives for what the world might look prepare together for a better future for shipping!
Currently, shipping is rightfully said to be the most efficient like in the year 2030.
and cleanest way of transporting goods over long distances.
However, the whole shipping industry must contribute to The scenarios help us in long-term strategic planning and Ole Johansson
reducing its environmental footprint to ensure its overall better serving our customers. What the future will look like in President & CEO
competitiveness. reality depends on the decisions we all make, together and Wärtsilä Corporation

4 5
= Key uncertainties

C E RTA I N T I E
U TUN A L E NVI S RO
X NM e
How do you condens
T E Geopolitics
N EN
C O International finance Globalisation
ac o m p le x w o r ld in t o

T
Climate

three scenarios?
Macroeconomics
Energy
Legislation Environment

Social values
P P I NG I N D Demographics

H I US
One way of making sense of a complex and changing environment is by creating
scenarios – stories describing alternative, plausible futures and how they might
S come about. But how do you go about doing that?

Technology Suppliers NGOs


E

TR
At Wärtsilä, we first set the year 2030 as the target year for our scenarios. It was far
Trade
TH

enough in the future to let fundamental changes take place, yet close enough to still

Y
be tangible.
Investors Customers
The team then set out to determine what could shape the future. Understanding
Employees
alternative, plausible futures is about understanding key uncertainties. That is,
understanding the changes in the contextual environment that might have an impact
Competitors Regulators on the shipping industry, helps us understand the way the future of shipping might
turn out and what kind of effects it can have on individual industry players.

Through an intensive process of researching, interviewing and conducting


workshops, the team found two certainties and six key uncertainties.

The only things we felt we could be sure of were that shipping would continue to
Shipping industry be part of the transportation matrix and that water would become more valuable.
player The next page explains how this information was turned into three different
scenarios.

6 Figure: Adapted from van der Heijden 2005


7
ensions,
were refined into five dim
The key uncertainties uncertainties
d states or where the
with their respective en other.
g in one direction or the
can end up when tippin
Scrambled They are shown on the
axes:
geopolitics

Key uncer tainties


wth
1 Trade and economic gro
Neo-colonialistic Global action

lay the groundwork


issues
approach against climate ange and sustainability
2 Response to climate ch
creates friction change
d global leadership
Geopolitical issues an

for scenarios
3
scarcity issues
4 Solutions to deal with

5 Control of power
National Free trade and
governments flow of capital,
control power strong growth

Rough Seas
Rough Seas is a world
1 5 of scarcity, tension and
Protectionistic, Megacities and
bilateralism.
bilateral, uneven mega corporations
growth 2 4 form the power base
3 Three
scenarios Open Oceans
emerge Open Oceans is a strongly
globalised world, in which
By analysing these
Local means to deal Technological megacities and mega
uncertainties, the
with sustainability or market-driven corporations wield power.
combinations of differ
issues solutions ent
outcomes yielded three
plausible scenarios.
Global
leadership
by China
Yellow River
In Yellow River, China
dominates the global arena,
both economically and
geopolitically.

8 9
In the world of Rough Seas, scarcity of energy, water and food
is predominant. Climate change adds further stress.

Rough Seas
Se p t e m b e r 1 4 , 2 0 2 7 Cartels and bilateral agreements have overtaken free markets. GDP growth is

t c o n v o y o f s h ip s limited and unevenly distributed. Resources are scarce and have therefore become

The firs
a source of power. Wealth is divided unequally among nations, resulting in ten-
sion, and indeed, some nations are under pressure not to fall apart. Consequently,

y in g w a t e r s a il s f r o m geopolitics is scrambled. The key words for the Rough Seas scenario are scarcity,

carr tension and bilateralism.

t o In d ia , p r o t e c t e d New trade routes have emerged as a result of two key developments; an increase

Russia
in bilateral agreements and industries moving to resource-rich areas. The volumes
of water and agricultural products being transported have increased significantly.

by Navy escor ts.


The global tension has increased the need for armed escorts, also at sea. The Arctic
routes, now mostly open due to climate warming, are a cause of friction.

The entire logistics chain is optimised regionally. Fleets are partly nationalised and
the era of flags of convenience (registering a ship in a foreign country to avoid
regulation) has come to an end. Oil tankers are decreasing in number and LNG car-
riers take on a bigger role instead. In regional trade, smaller ships optimise cargo
transports. The changed pattern of goods flow has reduced container traffic and
some major container terminals have closed down. In general, national governments
control ports.

Climate change is perceived as a threat, not an opportunity, and only local and
regional solutions are in place to cope with this challenge. Governments limit citi-
zens’ resource use by taxation and other mechanisms, especially as acquiring key
resources such as energy and water is expensive and difficult. This leads, voluntarily
and involuntarily, to more sustainable and less resource-intensive lifestyles. Local
renewable energy is the energy of choice and the move towards organised, self-
sustained communities is a major trend. Control of population growth and balancing
the age pyramid are global challenges.

10 11
Causes and effects Water and
food scarcity

Relocation of
Energy scarcity Friction GDP growth industrial activities and
new trade patterns

Bilateral agreements
and protectionism

Self-sustained
communities

positive impact

negative impact

12 13
In Yellow River, China dominates the global arena, economically
and geopolitically, and the renminbi is now an important foreign
exchange currency. The Chinese trade in Asia is booming, as
well as its trade with India, the Middle-East, Brazil and Australia.

China is no longer the world’s cheapest manufacturing region. Labour and resource-
intensive manufacturing has moved to Africa and other Asian countries, and often,
the finished goods are shipped to China for the affluent middle class in the coastal
megacities. As the living standard rises in China, Chinese tourists are common visi-
tors to the historical sites in Europe.

Yellow River
May 21, 2028 China has invested heavily in Africa, where local economies take off. Living stand-

n t a in e r s h ip – o n e ards rise at a rapid pace, although corruption has by no means been eradicated.

A Chinese co
These fast-developing countries have adopted Chinese-style governance models.

is c r o s s in g t h e In d ian Economic growth is significantly slower in the West, and the Western economies

of many –
have responded with massive R&D investments and protectionist measures. Manu-
facturing has been moved back to US and Europe. Both the United States and the

n it s w a y f r o m D a r es EU try to strengthen their relationships with Latin America and Africa, respectively.

Ocean o d
Climate change is tackled only on a regional level – no global agreements exist.

S h a n g h a i, lo a d e However, China has, in part, counterbalanced the fast growth of its energy demand

Salaam to
with efficiency and cleantech. Western societies adapt to sustainable living, and
Europe specifically develops efficient buildings and energy systems.

n u f a c t u r e d g o o d s .
with ma
The shipping industry, in the world of Yellow River, is dominated by China. Most of
the big shipping companies are Chinese-owned, and trade routes have shifted ac-
cording to Chinese trade interests. New ports are being built in Africa, Eastern Rus-
sia and India, and Chinese ports have grown into sophisticated, integrated logistics
centres.

Towards 2030, the Chinese economy is becoming overheated. The income gap
widens, the supply of water and food is of increasing concern and growth slows
down. At the same time, China’s African allies start to become more independent
economically.

14 15
Causes and effects Growth in Chinese Relative slowdown in
economy Western economies

Strong internal Alliances create


Shift in balance
consumption and Chinese “satellite states”
of power
intra-Asian trade especially in Africa

Challenges in Measures to
governance within counterbalance
the Chinese sphere Chinese growth
of influence

positive impact

negative impact

16 17
The world of Open Oceans is a strongly globalised one. Global
mega-corporations boost GDP growth, and governments
provide favourable conditions. The centres of economic
activities, regions and megacities have gained power over the
nation state. These mega-corporations and megacities are the
winners in this scenario.

Open Oceans
July 2, 2027
w o r ld ’s fi r s t fl o a t in g After fighting the economic downturns for a decade from 2008 onwards, govern-

The ments were forced to line up to support a liberalised global market doctrine. Govern-

e d
ments cooperate on the governance of climate issues and free trade protocols. A

n a t io n u n it , p o w e r number of global agreements on these topics are in place, many of them adminis-

desali r g y ,
tered by a modernised, efficient UN.

n e w a b le e n e
entirely with re
In this world, logistics is king. Highly optimised and integrated large scale logistics
systems have emerged, and shipping is a component within them. Ships no longer

e
have names; they are simply tools in the process. Ultra-efficient, automated ports

c h e d t o s e r v e t h near the megacities process shipments at high speeds. Most goods are transported

is laun between megacities and areas rich in resources, such as clean water, food and
energy.

city of Mumbai. Climate change is perceived as an opportunity, and innovating green solutions is a
lifestyle. New inventions spring up everywhere, in the slums as well as in corporate
R&D centres and are broadly adopted in the society. Although renewables are the
top priority, oil, coal and other fuels are shipped into regions where production of
renewable energy is difficult. Algae are farmed offshore for biofuel production.

Environmental challenges have led to the development of new types of vessels;


desalination, waste management and recycling ships are anchored outside megaci-
ties, serving their needs. Sustainable cruise vacations are a growing trend among
the growing middle classes all over the globe.

18 19
Causes and effects
Protection of
GDP growth
commercial interests

Agreements on Growth of global


Growth of megacities
climate and trade corporations

Governments Technology for


focus on corporate efficiency and
governance sustainability

positive impact

negative impact

20 21
Economists: the EU and the China and India name food
WHO publishes a report USA have not yet reached Gulf States announce The increase in bilateral scarcity the most important Megacities are being
stressing severe water sustainable economic EU declares ownership of massive investments in trade leads to the issue on their political Water scarcity threatens dismantled in India
shortages. recovery. local fresh water resources. water production. dismantling of the WTO. agendas. economic growth in China. and China.

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


Intense bilateral agreements USA starts buying energy Repeated clashes over gas USA intensifies attempts to Chinese troops are deployed Algae fuel production starts Russia takes control of the Brazil overtakes China in The EU Committee for
between China and resources bilaterally from resources in the Caspian re-establish influence over in Africa to protect China’s in the Baltic Sea. North-East Arctic passage. steel production. Protection of Resources
resource-rich countries. key supplier countries. Basin. Latin America. commercial interests. publishes a directive setting

Rough Seas quotas for resource use in


various industries.

National People’s Congress


increases Chinese invest- The Economist reports on a
ments in the Middle East The price for oil and gas in wave of EU manufacturers China and India remove
and Africa in order to secure the trade between China pulling back from China and all obstacles to free trade The EU introduces
The U.S. presidential
resources and production and Middle East is set in establishing themselves in and commercial operations protectionist taxes for Intra-Asian trade volumes
campaign focuses on
capacity. renminbi. Eastern Europe. between their countries. Chinese goods and services. are the highest in the world.
internal issues.

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


High debt and lack of Statistics show significantly China increases investments Emerging new balance of In China, the air and water China becomes the biggest A significant number of Income gap reaches a Tensions in relations
substantial growth constrain increased consumer in foreign agricultural economic power forces pollution challenges, togeth- importer of Middle-Eastern Fortune 100 companies are record high in China and its between China and African
the Western economies. spending in China. production in order to secure countries to design a new FX er with increased production oil and gas. owned by Chinese capital. African allies. allies.
food supplies. currency based on a basket
of currencies.
costs, mount up the pressure
to move industrial activities
Social tensions lead to
widespread unrest in China.
Yellow River
abroad.
Investments into waste
management and
Influence of corporations recycling  grow rapidly. Illegal immigration reaches a
increases while that of Real-time monitoring of new record in China. CorpWatch is created under
national governments shifts logistics chains becomes A Doha round meets in The long-term trend of 50% of world’s 200 largest WTO to monitor the 100 A floating desaliniser storage
to megacities after the possible, paving way for Dubai; agrees on removing mergers and acquisitions cities have ratified urban biggest corporations in the offload unit, based on new
economic crisis. super-efficient logistics. key tariffs. reaches an all-time high. sustainability standards. world. technology, is launched.

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


Post-Mexico climate talks, led A global environmental The Russian oil and gas in- Roughly  60% of the world’s E.ON brings Saharan solar Lagos plugs in to the 80% of the world’s
by the USA and China, result footprint product labelling dustry enters a new era with popula tion lives in cities. power to Europe. Saharan solar power population lives in cities.
in a commitment to weak, system is introduced. the cooperation between network.
non-binding climate targets. Russian oligarchs and inter-
national oil companies. Open Oceans
Sources Wärtsilä - the leading
These scenarios would not be the same without the valuable input of
marine solution provider
various experts. We are grateful to the various academics, economists, NGO
representatives, independent researchers, business leaders, and the representatives
of governments and trade organisations, as well as our own specialists, for their
contributions. Wärtsilä powers every third ship and services every second ship
sailing the world’s seas. Our power plants produce roughly 1% of the
world’s electricity.

Currently, shipping is the most efficient and cleanest way of


transporting goods over long distances and Wärtsilä wants
to contribute to ensure that this remains the case. Providing
sustainable solutions is the cornerstone of Wärtsilä’s sustainability
commitment.

Wärtsilä has over 18,000 professionals, manning 160 locations,


in 70 countries around the world. Wärtsilä is listed on the NASDAQ
OMX Helsinki, Finland.

This release includes various forward-looking statements regarding potential risks, conditions and Wärtsilä’s business, as assumed by Wärtsilä
Corporation as of the date of this release. The forward-looking statements are based on unclear and unknown factors, risks, events and uncertainties
beyond Wärtsilä’s control. Accordingly, the forward-looking statements may or may not materialise, or may materialise substantially differently.
Consequently, neither Wärtsilä Corporation nor any of its subsidiaries assume liability on the basis of, or related to, this release. The readers of this
release must not rely on, take, or fail to take any actions based on this release or contents thereof. Wärtsilä Corporation undertakes no obligation to Share your views, challenge us and provide your feedback about
update or adjust this release. the Shipping Scenarios at www.wartsila.com/shippingscenarios.
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