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12
AV SPECIAL ISSUE
Welcome to the final issue of Perspectives for 2010/11, a special edition dedicated
Editor: Jonny Goggs to the referendum on the Alternative Vote electoral system. We are a bi-termly
independent political magazine produced by the Politics Society, and published
Deputy Editor: Peter Gambrill
with the support of Warwick PAIS. We hope that you have enjoyed reading the
2011
magazine this year; we’ve certainly enjoyed putting it together. So before you
surrender your life to exams, peruse this issue and be sure to vote on May 5th!
! ! ! ! {The Editing Team}
many are unhappy with the compromise reached by the
AV: A condensed version cont. Coalition Government. They join ranks with the Conservative
! Party, whose elites are almost united in their opposition to AV
" (cont.p.1) nearly a century ago. It was advocated by a and predominantly express a direct preference for the sweet
Royal Commission in 1910, and in both 1917 and 1931 it simplicity of First Past the Post.
received approval from the House of Commons, only to be " On campus, both campaigns have already begun to take
defeated both times by the House of Lords. Voters in London up arms and are preparing for the final push. Non-partisan
are already familiar with the concept of casting multiple group ‘Just Vote’ is also back following its successes at the
preferences after a variant on AV called the ‘Supplementary General Election last year and has been at work helping
Vote’ was introduced in 2000. SV, however, only allows students register to vote and, as usual, encouraging a healthy
voters to rank two candidates and only has two rounds, turnout. It looks like it will be needed: the average turnout
whereas AV allows more and can last longer. across all national and regional referenda in the UK’s history
" AV is currently used by Australia, Papua New Guinea is a meagre 56.2%, and more recent referenda held in Wales
and Fiji for their parliamentary elections. It is also used by and London barely encouraged one in three voters to turn out
several US States to elect mayors, by Labour and the Lib on polling day.
Dems to elect their leaders, in the Oscars to choose winning
films, and by various other bodies such as Warwick Students’ " ”It remains for me to merely
Union. However the Australian system is quite different to our
proposed version in that voters must rank all the candidates
encourage you, the Warwick student,
without fail in order to cast a valid ballot, even if there are to consider the arguments laid out by
dozens of people on the ballot paper. In Papua New Guinea,
voters are only allowed to cast three preferences, and in Fiji
each side carefully and make up your
voters probably won’t be able to cast any preferences thanks own mind when the time comes. It
to a recent military coup.
might not be a great choice, but it’s
!
still a choice. Make it a good one.”
“...this is not merely a hyper-technical
debate confined to lecture theatres " On the whole it is regarded as a question that few
and the corridors of power, but one people really care about and even fewer really understand.
One can only hope that people will demonstrate engagement
that both affects and concerns a great with the issue to make the result on May 5th truly legitimate
number of ordinary people.” either way. It remains for me to merely encourage you, the
Warwick student, to consider the arguments laid out by each
" Since the start of the campaign both Yes to Fairer Votes side carefully and make up your own mind when the time
comes. It might not be a great choice, but it’s still a choice.
and No2AV have been at each other’s throats in their battle
Make it a good one.
to convince the public of their arguments. But there are areas
on which both agree: Firstly, that this is an important decision.
Whether it is a Yes supporter telling you it will improve our Visit the following websites for more information about the
political culture, or a No advocate claiming it will damage referendum, and how you can make your choice about May
our historic voting principles, both sides tend to acknowledge 5th:
that this is not merely a hyper-technical debate confined to
lecture theatres and the corridors of power, but one that both For concise explanations of how the two systems would work
affects and concerns a great number of ordinary people. in practice, different ways you can vote and much more:
Secondly, there is an acknowledgement that AV is not a www.aboutmyvote.co.uk
The YES campaign: www.yestofairervotes.org
proportional system – there is no proven relationship between
The NO campaign: www.no2av.org
using AV on a local level and delivering more proportional
national outcomes. Academic studies have shown that some
parliaments would have been more proportional under AV,
and others less so.
!
“One can only hope that people will
demonstrate engagement with the
issue to make the result on May 5th
truly legitimate either way.”
Hence the rise of a third campaign known as ‘No2AV, Yes to
PR’ that in effect rejects the premise of the referendum
question. It is no secret that the Liberal Democrats, some
Labour ranks and other reformers such as the Electoral
Reform Society have long expressed a preference for PR and
UKIP supporter may have felt that his candidate was
unlikely to win under FPTP, and chosen to vote for the
Conservative candidate instead, in order to prevent KHC or
Labour winning the seat. As we shall see, under AV, he does
not need to do so, since if UKIP are eliminated, his second
Yes to AV: A thought experiment preference vote will be counted. Nevertheless, for the
{Richard Metcalf] purpose of this demonstration, I will use these results as the
first preference votes.
Alternative Vote (AV) is, in my opinion, a better So what happens to these results under AV? Well, as
electoral system than First-Past-The-Post (FPTP), because it we can see, no candidate has won an outright majority, so
takes full account of the wishes of the whole electorate, and we must proceed to round two. The candidate with the
not just those who vote for the two leading candidates. It lowest proportion of votes cast, the BNP’s Gordon Howells
makes tactical voting unnecessary, allowing the individual to in this case, is eliminated, and the second preference votes
vote for the candidate she really likes best, without worrying of his supporters are added on to the remaining candidates’
about wasting her vote. I have conjured up an example in scores. If we imagine that the BNP base’s second preference
my imagination, to show how things might be different in my vote was split more or less evenly between UKIP, the
home constituency under AV. As far as the voter is Conservatives and Labour, we still do not arrive at a
concerned, when he enters the polling station, the majority, so we proceed quickly to round three. We shall
procedure is very simple indeed. She numbers the assume for simplicity’s sake that all of the UKIP voters’ next
candidates on the ballot paper in order of preference, like preferences will be for the Conservative candidate, and the
so: table looks something like this:
Michael Wrench UKIP Already we can see that over 5% of the population,
who, under FPTP, threw away their votes on radical parties,
Gordon Howells BNP have been given a second chance to determine the result. If
we now assume that the Lib Dem second preference votes
went overwhelmingly to the Tories, they would finally
Note that if at any point she finds all of the remaining
achieve the approval of over 50% of the constituency and
candidates equally abhorrent, she can leave some of the
win the seat. However, this seems unlikely, so let’s imagine
spaces blank. In practice it will be rare that fourth and fifth
instead that the Lib Dem support was divided more or less
preferences are used in the counting of the votes anyway.
equally between Garnier, Taylor and Knowles:
Making some assumptions about voter behaviour, we can
predict what the outcome might have been in 2010 under
AV. Firstly, here is the actual election result for the above Mark Garnier Conservative 45%
constituency:
Richard Taylor KHC 35.7%
A 40 30 - C
AV - Not a credible alternative 10 - B
{Gordon Lee}
B 30 25 - C
AV has worked well in Papua New Gunea because its 5-A
politics were split along ethnic and tribal lines, before AV forced
parties to reach beyond their communal base to more voters for
second preference votes. Specialists in voting systems know this, C 25 20 - B
and supports of AV promote AV on this criterion. But this is the 5-A
exact opposite of the problems in Britain, where the three
largest parties are increasingly being criticised of being too
similar. Under AV, parties are incentivised to say to supporters
Under AV, votes for candidate C will be redistributed and
of other parties “Look, we are not that different, so please put
candidate B wins the election with 50 votes (out of 95). The
us as your second choice.” In the end, parties become more
reason why supporters of candidate C gets to make a second
centrist, and voter choice is significantly reduced.
vote is arbitrary (arising only because C got the least number of
first preference votes), despite AV placing equal weightage on
“As the independent parliamentary first and second preference votes. For if voters for candidate A
report headed by Lord Jenkins in 1998 gets their second preference votes redistributed, candidate C
would win with 55 votes. One person one vote, and each vote
put it, AV is ‘disproportionate’ and of equal weight? That golden principle of fairness does not
‘dangerously unpredictable’.” seem to be upheld under AV.
As the independent parliamentary report headed by Lord
Indeed, the benefits of AV are often not as clear as they Jenkins in 1998 put it, AV is ‘disproportionate’ and
seem, and only under close scrutiny do they start to collapse. ‘dangerously unpredictable’. Because AV is still a one-member-
Supporters point to the deficiencies of the current system, and one-constituency system, it cannot claim to be more
uphold AV as a silver bullet for current problems ranging as representative. In fact, empirical research into past elections
wide as ‘unfair’ votes, low voter turnout, poor voter choice, also suggests that results would be distorted and could be more
tactical voting and disproportionality. Under FPTP, each voter disproportionate under AV than under FPTP - because of the
has one single vote of confidence, and the candidate who is nature of the AV voting system which Winston Churchill said
best able to command the confidence of the electorate wins the was “the stupidest, the least scientific and the most unreal”. This
election. Much has been said about the limitations of FPTP, so unpredictability also leads to increased frequency of coalitions
let’s now turn our attention to AV. forming after elections - with parties tearing up their manifestos
Even the credibility of AV being a fair system is being and drafting new “coalitions agreements” to legitimise the
challenged because it not only makes second and third breaking of election promises.
preference votes worth as much as first preference votes, but it Both voting system have their flaws - but I am not convinced
also allows second and third preference votes to be counted in that AV is any better than the tried-and-tested FPTP. On balance,
a totally arbitrary manner. I would say that FPTP is a better system - and that’s why I will be
Let’s examine a hypothetical (and likely) situation: voting ‘no’ on the 5th of May.
Michael Clarke, director of the Royal United Services
Institute think-tank, has warned that in light of our ongoing
commitment in Afghanistan, “The key issue is the enablers - the
AWACs aircraft, refuelling aircraft, intelligence assets and
Special Forces units acting as potential for ward air
controllers.# These are the assets that are in short supply and
any long-term commitment would have an impact on the
availability of t hese in two t heatres of operations
simultaneously”.
Speaking to the BBC ahead of the UNSC’s decision on
Thursday, senior Conservative politician David Davis voiced
concerns about the SDSR saying that “it was time to go back
and look at it again”.
This might be easier said than done given that Labour left
a severe budget deficit of £36 billion in the MoD budget.#
Whilst this deficit must be dealt with, it is absolutely imperative
The SDSR: Rethinking defence that the government does not limit our military capabilities.#
One issue that both the previous and current government have
{Jen McPherson} failed to tackle seriously enough is that of Trident.
Throughout the past week, the world’s attention has been
Military intervention is now a key feature of the UK’s fixed upon Japan’s unfolding humanitarian disaster following
foreign policy decision-making process, as demonstrated by the the country’s devastating earthquake and tsunami and resulting
decision by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to nuclear fallout. The only country in the world to have
pass a resolution authorising a no-fly zone across Libya.# This experienced the sheer horror of nuclear weapons is
decision raises serious questions about whether or not the unsur pr isingl y a vehement cam paigner f or nuclear
defence cuts, as detailed in the Strategic Defence and Security disarmament; a lesson from which UK governments will
Review (SDSR) last autumn, are justified. hopefully start to listen to one day.
These questions were raised in an open letter (published in Whether one takes a pro or anti-nuclear weapon stance, it
the Independent on Sunday earlier this month) signed by 50 appears difficult to reconcile the costs of an outdated nuclear
senior military figures, politicians and academics calling for the arsenal, at an estimated £100 billion over the next 20 years
SDSR to be reopened in light of recent developments in North when put against the £36 billion shortfall in the defence
Africa and the Middle East. The letter voices concerns that the budget. Described as “virtually irrelevant” two years ago by
review “seems to be have been driven by financial rather than three retired military generals, it seems wasteful to pump so
military considerations”. much taxpayers’ money into weapons that we would never
even use in the first place.
“The security landscape has The events in Libya and the wider Arab world have
reignited the thorny issue of humanitarian military intervention
changed radically since the SDSR in an age where our defence capabilities are being stretched to
mapped out its grand plan...five their limits.#
It is evident in the 21st century age of Kofi Annan’s
months ago.” "responsibility to protect"#that the UK government must consider
revising the SDSR sooner rather than later. If we fail to live up
Harold Wilson famously remarked that “a week was a to this responsibility, we allow the blood of Rwanda, Darfur
long time in politics”. The security landscape has changed and countless other atrocities to continue to stain our human
radically since the SDSR mapped out its grand plan of conscience. {Originally published in The Student Journals}
‘Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty’ five months ago. #In
this ‘Age of Uncertainty’ few could have foreseen the revolution
sparked by a fruit seller in Tunisia that would sweep throughout
the Arab world.
There is an ideological choice to be made: the UK could
take a back seat and sacrifice its role as a global leader
following the fatally flawed interventionist policies over the past
decade, or it could continue to take a more active role in
foreign policy in the face of emerging humanitarian crises.
Following David Cameron’s decisive push for intervention
in Libya, it seems that the coalition - for the time being - has
favoured the latter path, which appears increasingly at odds
with the defence cuts.# Alongside the deep cuts in military
equipment (the HMS Ark Royal and Harrier jets have
controversially been scrapped) the main concern is that of
military overstretch given that the UK already has 10,000
troops in Afghanistan.
$150 or forced to attending citizenship classes while if it is found
that they have been forced to wear it, that person will be
sentenced to a year’s imprisonment and fined $30,000. Surely if
the ban was to protect women, only the latter should be upheld.
Otherwise the woman is choosing to wear the garment out of her
own freedom and is thus being denied the liberty to do so. This
leads me to ask why a woman would choose to wear this “sign of
enslavement”?
Many who wear the niqab do so as they believe it is an
indication of modesty practiced for their deity. Therefore these
women are wearing the niqab as a religious garment and it
would appear that France is in violation of Article 18 of the
United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which
states that “everyone has the right to freedom of thought,
conscience and religion: this right includes freedom…to manifest
Unveiling the ‘Burqa Ban’ his religion”. To add insult to injury Syria, who previously banned
the niqab from private and public universities, have reversed their
own law.
{Siraj Datoo} Yet while Bashar al-Assad has taken the opposing action to
that of his French counterpart, the reasons for doing so are
The shocking situation in France would be laughable if it remarkably similar. In Syria, the turnaround is an attempt to quell
wasn’t quite so scary. The so-called ‘burqa ban’ – wrongly a political uprising; in France, it’s a meagre attempt to fashion a
named by the way – came into force earlier this month. The ban, political miracle. Sarkozy’s approval rating is at its lowest point,
which does ban the burqa, in fact targets the niqab, a garment 29%, and the extreme right-wing National Front’s Marine le Pen
some Muslim women wear to cover their face (the burqa also is just below at 28%.
adds a layer of mesh where the niqab would leave a gap). It becomes quite apparent therefore that Sarkozy has
Well, I should be able to see the face of the person I’m pushed so vehemently for this bill because there are elections
speaking to, you might say. Engaging in a conversation with next year. Pandering to the escalating sense of Islamophobia
someone whose face is covered is difficult and uneasy, you would within mainland France, Sarkozy has certainly chosen the right
imagine. It appears that most of France imagines this also. After target; targeting Muslims has become a rather fashionable trend
all, with conservative figures suggesting that only 2,000 French in France. Some months ago Le Pen compared Muslims praying
women (of a total population of 62 million) wear the garment, outside a mosque as an occupying force, comparing their actions
the majority of those living in France will have barely (if at all) to those of the Nazis in occupied France.
noticed the garment. Indeed the grand rabbi Gilles Bernheim told Le Monde: "It's
What strikes me as most odd is that the statistics given above often difficult to be a Muslim in France. This difficulty is worse
are simply estimates leaked to a French national newspaper, Le today in this unhealthy climate, aggravated by talk that divides
Figaro. Surely if a country’s governing officials wish to debate a rather than unites."
controversial issue, one that affects a person’s basic rights, it What is worse, appalling even, is that if Sarkozy truly cared
would be a modest assumption that there would have been a about the women he seems to be so passionately trying to
report giving us official statistics. protect, he would have thought of the consequences of his
Since it doesn’t exist, is it safe to say that a report was actions, the collateral damage of his political pandering if you
created and not publicised upon the revelation that, as some may. Those women who were forced into wearing the niqab - and
figures suggest, there are only 350 niqab-clad women in the let’s not pretend they don’t exist - will in fact face worse
country? I assume, then, the French public may not have reacted conditions now this law has come into force. After all, they’ll
as well to their elected officials spending countless hours simply be forced to stay at home and out of the view of rest of
debating a law that affects so few while the country faces an the population.
economic crisis and has an unemployment rate of 9.6%. Nicolas Sarkozy must now take the only morally acceptable
Yet the President of the French Republic, Nicolas Sarkozy, option and undo this law. But of course, with the elections next
stands by his decision to ban the niqab. Indeed, in 2009 he year, helping Muslims won’t win him any votes. The only chance
declared that the burqa was “not welcome in France”. But of this law being overturned is by the European Council of
perhaps I am a little harsh on Sarkozy. Perhaps he really does Human Rights. It’s the only way of protecting Sarkozy from
care about these 350 women. He says about the niqab that himself. {Originally published in The Student Journals}
France “cannot accept in our country women imprisoned behind
a mask, deprived of all social life of their identity.”
He seems like such a caring man, does Monsieur le
Président, looking out for these poor women by refusing them the
right to dress how they wish. However, let’s get it straight: the
Qur’an doesn’t tell Muslim women to wear the niqab, this I
concede. In fact, I would even go so far as saying that I have,
once, found it challenging to talk to a woman wearing the niqab.
But unlike the President of France, I respect these women enough
to give them the choice.
This leads us to question the niqab ban a little further. If a
woman wears the niqab or burqa in public, they will be fined