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Expert & Analytical Reasoning

IHE 735 Advanced Systems
Models
April 25, 2011
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Intuitive & Analytical DM

•  Intuitive Decision Making
▫  Pattern recognition based on previous experience
•  Analytical Decision Making
▫  Calculated selection of alternatives
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Intuitive DM
•  Rely on experience to recognize the essence
of a given situation or problem
•  Utilize pattern recognition from previous
actions, observations, and training
Analytical DM
•  Methodology
•  Identify possible options
•  Analyze all options according to a set criteria
•  Calculate a value for all criteria of each option
•  Choose the option with highest total criteria
values
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Analytical DM
•  Constraints
•  The environment is constantly changing and
information can quickly become outdated
•  Lack of time can hamper the ability to conduct an
accurate analysis
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Task characteristic Intuition Analysis

Number of cues Large (>5) Small
Measurement of cues Perceptual measurement Objective, reliable
measurement
Distribution of cue values Continuous highly variable Unknown distribution; cues
distribution are dichotomous, values are
discrete
Redundancy among cues High Low

Decomposition of task Low High

Degree of certainty in task Low High

Relation between cues and Linear Nonlinear

criterion
Weighting of cues in Equal Unequal
environmental model

Availability of organizing Unavailable Available

principle
Display of cues Simultaneous display Sequential display
Time period Brief Long
Cognitive Continuum Theory
‘Pure’ scientific
experiment
Control trial &
Quasi statistics
experiment
Good with relaxed
controls
+
System aided
judgement
Task Time,
Structure Peer aided Visibility
judgement
Of process

Intuition

Poor
-
Intuition Analysis
 DM Quality

Intuition INTUITION Analysis

Quality
Quality

ANALYSIS

Least Definition of concepts Most

Explicit Specification of relationships Explicit
Measurement of magnitudes
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Cognitive Continuum Theory

•  Principles:
▫  Cognition moves on an intuitive-analytical continuum

▫  Quasi-rationality is the middle ground in a cognitive

continuum

▫  Cognition moves along the continuum as a function of

time

▫  Cognition is selectively capable of relying on pattern

recognition and on the use of functional relations
conditional upon task characteristics
 INTUITION QUASI RATIONALITY ANALYSIS
RAPID INFO PROCESSING SLOW INFO PROCESS
C SIMULTANEOUS CUE USE SEQUENTIAL CUE USE
H JUDGEMENT PROCESS NOT
RETRACEABLE
JUDGEMNENT PROCESS
RETRACEABLE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOGICAL RULES AVAILABLE
OUCOIME
R LOW CONFIDENCE IN
AND USED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN
A PROCESS INVOLVES ASPECTS OF OUTCOME
BOTH POLES OF THE
C ERRORS NORMALLY
DISTRIBUTED CONTINUUM – A BLEND. WE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
PROCESS
TEND TO OPERATE IN THIS
T INCONSISTENT (LOW
COGNITIVE CONTROL)
REGION OF THE CONTINUUM ERRORS FEW, BUT LARGE
IN DAILY LIFE. QUASI WHEN THEY OCCUR
E LOW COGNITIVE EFFORT RATIONALITY MAY BE MORE
CONSISTENT (HIGH COGNITIVE
NEEDED OR LESS ANALYTICAL OR
R LEADS TO INTERPERSONAL
INTUIIVE DEPENDING ON CONTROL)
THE RELATIVE MIX OF LEADS TO RESOLVABLE
I CONFLICT INTUITIVE AND ANALYTICAL CONFLICT
RELIANCE ON PICTORIAL/ CHARACTERISTICS
S NON VERBAL CUES DEMANDED BY THE RELIANCE ON QUANTITATIVE
CUES
INFORMATION
T RAW CUE DATA/EVENTS
STORED IN MEMORY
ENVIRONMENT COMPLEX ORGAINSING
PRINCIPLES STORED IN
I RESISTANT TO NEW CUES MEMORY

C CUES EVALUATED AT
PERCEPTUAL LEVEL
RESPONSIVE TO NEW CUES
CUES EVALUATED AT
S WEIGHTED AVERAGE MEASUREMENT LEVEL
ORGANISING PRINCIPLE TASK SPECIFIC ORGAINSING
PRINCIPLE
 INDUCING
INTUITION
C COMPLEXITY OF TASK STRUCTURE
JUDGEMENT SCALE HAS MANY
H ALTERNATIVES/STEPS TO SOLUTION
LARGE N (>5) CUES DISPLAYED
A
SIMULTANEOUSLY
JIGH REDUNDANCY AMONGST CUES
R CONITUOS HIGHLY VARIABLE CUE
VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS
A EQUAL WEIGHTING OF CUES IN
ECOLOGY
C LINEAR RELATIONS BETWEEN CUES
T AND CRITERION
AMBIGUITY OF TASK CONTENT
E ORGANISING PRINCIPLE UNAVAILABLE
TASK OUTCOME NOT AVAILABLE
R UNFAMILAR TASK CONTENT
I NO FEEDFORWARD/MINIMAL
FEEDBACK
S HIGH ACCURACY UNLIKELY
FORM OF TASK PRESENTATION
T A POSTERIORI TASK AND COGNITIVE
DECOMPOSITION
I
CONTINUOUS CUE DATA
C PICTORIAL CUE DEFINITIONS,
PERCEPTUALLY MEASURED
S BRIEF TIME AVAILABLE FOR
JUDGEMENT OR DECISION
INDUCING INDUCING
QUASI RATIONALITY ANALYSIS
COMPLEXITY OF TASK STRUCTURE
JUDGEMENT SCALE HAS FEW
ALTERNATIVES/STEPS TO SOLUTION
SMALL N (2-4) CUES DISPLAYED
SIMULTANEOUSLY
LOW REDUNDANCY AMONGST CUES
DICHOTOMOUS OR DISCRETE CUES
DISTRIBUTIONS UNKNOWN
UNEQUAL WEIGHTING OF CUES IN
TASKS WHICH INDUCE
QUASI RATIONALITY WILL
ECOLOGY
NON LINEAR RELATIONS BETWEEN
SHOW A MIXTURE OF CUES AND CRITERION
INTUITION-INDUCING AMBIGUITY OF TASK CONTENT
ELEMENTS AS WELL AS
ANALYSIS INDUCING
ORGANISING PRINCIPLEREADILY
UNAVAILABLE
ELEMENTS. RELATIVE
BALANCE IN THE MIXTURE
TASK OUTCOME READILY AVAILABLE
WILL PREDICT THE POLE
TOWARD WHICH COGNITION
FAMILAR TASK CONTENT
FEEDFORWARD AND FEEDBACK
WOULD MOVE HIGH ACCURACY LIKELY
FORM OF TASK PRESENTATION
A PRIORI TASK AND COGNITIVE
DECOMPOSITION
DICHOTOMOUS OR DISCRETE CUE
DATA
QUANTITATVE CUE DEFINITIONS,
OBJECTIVELY MEASURED
LONG TIME AVAILABLE FOR
JUDGEMENT OR DECISION
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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Five Components (Shanteau 1992):

▫  Sufficient domain knowledge
▫  Psychological traits associated with experts
▫  Cognitive skills needed for difficult decisions
▫  Ability to apply appropriate decision strategies
▫  Task with suitable characteristics
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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Domain knowledge

▫  Where does it come from?

▫  Case-based reasoning to build expert systems

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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Traits of an expert
▫  Self presentation
▫  Self-confidence
▫  Communication skills
▫  Adaptability
▫  Responsibility
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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Cognitive Skills
▫  Attention abilities
▫  Ability to identify exceptions to rules
▫  Work effectively under stress
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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Decision strategies
▫  Dynamic feedback
▫  Decision aids
▫  Decomposing complex decision problems
▫  Pre-thinking solutions
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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Task characteristics
▫  What allows an expert to be an expert?
–  Stimuli
–  Predictability
–  Expectations
–  Repetition

Good Performance
Static Stimuli
Decisions about things
Experts agree on stimuli
Characteristics
More predictable problems
Some errors expected
Repetitive tasks
Feedback available
Objective analysis available
Problem decomposable
Decision aids common
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Poor Performance
Dynamic stimuli
Decisions about behavior
Experts disagree on stimuli
Less predictable problems
Few errors expected
Unique tasks
Feedback unavailable
Subjective analysis only
Problem not decomposable
Decision aids rare
Table 2 – Task characteristics associated with good (left-side)
and poor (right-side) performance in experts, from Shanteau
1992
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Theory of Expert Competence

•  Extremes are competence/incompetence
•  Competence goes from low to high as a function
of task characteristics
•  Theory concerned with experts
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Expert Systems
•  Current systems build on knowledge and
production rules
•  Expertise should be looked at from perspective
of experts – not hard/software constraints
•  Traits should be built into the expert system
•  Flexibility – distinguishes experts from novices
References
•  Offredy, M., Kendall, S., and Goodman, C. (2007) “The use of
cognitive continuum theory and patient scenarios to explore
nurse prescribers’ pharmacological knowledge and decision
making” International Journal of Nursing Studies, In press.
•  Shanteau, J. (1992) Competence in experts: The role of task
characteristics. Organizational Behavior and Human
Decision Processes. 53, 252-266.
•  Van Riel, Allard C.R (2003), “Effectiveness and Scope of
Decision Making Styles,” in Effective Decision Making in the
High Tech Service Innovation Process, Doctoral Dissertation,
Maastricht University, Maastricht, Datawyse/Maastricht
University Press.
•  York, C. “The Cognitive Continuum”
www.york.ac.uk/res/dec/resources.ppt. Accessed April 2010.