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Problems
NOTE: Many of the AON graphics in this solutions set depict the start day of the
successor activity to be the same day as the completion of the predecessor. This is
consistent with the presentation in the text. It is not consistent with the result that would
be obtained using Microsoft® Project, where the start day of the successor is always the
next working day after the completion of the predecessor.
Problem 2:
Problem 4:
a) The critical path is B-E-G.
b) 23 work periods.
Problem 6:
PDM Diagram 6a
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
PDM Diagram 6b
Problem 8:
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Problem 10:
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Sum of
Expected Variances
Desired Project Critical
Duration Duration Path Z Probability
14 16.0 4.00 -1 15.9%
e) If CD slips to six days the critical path is unchanged but slack on D is reduced. If
CD slips to seven days then there are two critical paths: AC CB BE EF and AC
CD DF. If CD slips to eight days then the critical path shifts to AC CD DF and
the project duration extends to 17 days.
Problem 12:
Figure 8.12a shows the PDM network for the data from Table A of Problem
8-12 assuming that the data were applied as shown in Figure 8.12b.
Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
1) The critical path is 2,3,4,5,7,8,9.
2) The slack for activity 1 is 11.7 days. The slack for activity 6 is 4 days.
2) The following table shows the calculation of the expected completion time:
Activity a m b Expected
1 8 10 13 10.2
2 5 6 8 6.2
3 13 15 21 15.7
4 10 12 14 12.0
5 11 20 30 20.2
6 4 5 8 5.3
7 2 3 4 3.0
8 4 6 10 6.3
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Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
9 2 3 4 3.0
Expected
Project
Duration
66.4
Problem 14:
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Figure 8.14a shows the original network diagram for problem 14.
Please see note about network depiction preceding Problem 1
1) The critical path activities are A, D, G, and J. Activities B and E should be closely
monitored as a near critical path.
Problem 16:
Using critical path analysis with the data provided gives the following table:
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Expected Sum of
Desired Project Variances
Duration Duration Critical Path Z Probability
12 13.0 9.00 -0.33 36.9%
13 13.0 9.00 0.00 50.0%
16 13.0 9.00 1.00 84.1%
17.3 13.0 9.00 1.43 92.5%
For this problem the variance has to be calculated from the standard deviation, and the
durations provided are assumed to be the expected durations. As can be seen there is
about an 84% chance of completing the project within the drop dead time. If a little more
than a week is added to the duration, the chance of completing the project on time rises to
92.5%.
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 18:
Problem 20:
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Problem 22:
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Problem 24:
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Problem 26:
Figure 8.26a shows the network, critical path and slack times.
Tabulating the calculations for expected durations and probability looks like this:
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Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
The next longest path is 1-3, 3-6, 6-7, 7-10, 10-11 at 55 days. It will only be a concern if
under some circumstances; its duration exceeds the actual critical path of 59 days. Using
the same technique for calculating the probability of exceeding a particular duration gives
the following table for this path:
Probability for path 1-3-6-7-10-11
Expected
Desired Path Sum of Path
Duration Duration Variances Z Probability
59 55.0 1.78 3.00 99.9%
Clearly the chance of exceeding 59 days is quite small. The same technique can be
applied to the next longest path 1-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-8, 8-10, 10-11 which while relatively
short has high variance:
Probability for path 1-4-5-6-8-10-11
Expected
Desired Path Sum of Path
Duration Duration Variances Z Probability
59 49.0 7.44 3.67 100.0%
Again it is clear that it is unlikely that this path will cause problems with the overall
project duration.
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 28:
Figure 28a shows the PDM network diagram for problem 28.
The following table tabulates the variances and probability for this project:
Sum of
Expected Variances
Desired Project Critical
Duration Duration Path Z Probability
44 41.0 8.22 1.05 85.2%
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Problem 30:
The setup for problem 30 is similar to that for problem 29. First the spreadsheet in Excel
is prepared with the calculations for the paths:
Activities
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
10 1 22 5 3 10 2 2 2 3 1 2
Paths Project
1-2-4-5 1-2-4-7-8-11-12 1-2-4-7-9-10-12 1-3-9-10-12 1-3-6 Completion
19 23 25 39 42 42
Then, similar to problem 29, triangle distributions are established to calculate the
durations for all activities except 9 (no variation in the estimate).
The resulting forecast for the duration of the project and corresponding statistics are:
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
Note that the probability of completing the project in 44 days has dropped to about 70%.
Problem 32:
The “Pert Entry Form” in Microsoft® Project is used to enter the three durations. After
they are in the “Calculate Pert” button is clicked to populate the Duration field with the
expected durations. Note that MSP uses the non-standard terminology “Expected” in lieu
of “Most Likely.”
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
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Using the calculated durations, the Gantt chart looks like this:
Dec '05 Jan '06 Feb '06
ID Task Name Duration Start Finish Predecessors 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26
1 Start 0 days Sun 12/11/05 Sun 12/11/05 12/11
2 a 7.5 days Mon 12/12/05 Wed 12/21/05 1
3 b 8 days Mon 12/12/05 Wed 12/21/05 1
4 c 6 days Wed 12/21/05 Thu 12/29/05 2
5 d 14.5 days Thu 12/22/05 Wed 1/11/06 2,3
6 e 7 days Wed 1/11/06 Fri 1/20/06 4,5
7 f 11.5 days Fri 1/20/06 Mon 2/6/06 3,6
8 g 8 days Tue 2/7/06 Thu 2/16/06 7
9 End 0 days Thu 2/16/06 Thu 2/16/06 8 2/16
The figure shows the default Gantt chart view of the problem, with a project start day of
Sunday December 11, 2005. Note that MSP moves the beginning of the first task to the
first workday of Monday the 12th. This display shows the default calendar of 5 day 40 hr.
weeks with no holidays. A “Start” and “End” milestone have been inserted to insure that
all activities have at least one predecessor and successor.
The tracking Gantt view can be used to display the critical path:
Dec '05 Jan '06 Feb '06
ID Task Name Duration 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26
1 Start 0 days 12/11
2 a 7.5 days 0%
3 b 8 days 0%
4 c 6 days 0%
5 d 14.5 days 0%
6 e 7 days 0%
7 f 11.5 days 0%
8 g 8 days 0%
9 End 0 days 2/16
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Appendix B – Chapter 8
Project Management: A Managerial Approach, sixth edition
The network diagram can be displayed directly from MSP using the “Network Diagram”
view. A portion of it with the default format settings looks like this:
a
Start
Start: 12/12/05 ID: 2
Milestone Date: Sun 12/11/05 Finish: 12/21/05 Dur: 7.5 days
ID: 1 Res:
b
Start: 12/12/05 ID: 3
Finish: 12/21/05 Dur: 8 days
Res:
The slack values are automatically calculated by MSP. They can be revealed in a number
of different views:
Nov '05 Dec '05 Jan '06 Feb '06 Mar '06 Apr '06
ID Task Name Start Finish Late Start Late Finish Free Slack Total Slack 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 5 12 19 26 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23
1 Start Sun 12/11/05 Sun 12/11/05 Mon 12/12/05 Mon 12/12/05 0 days 0 days
2 a Mon 12/12/05 Wed 12/21/05 Mon 12/12/05 Wed 12/21/05 0 days 0.5 days
3 b Mon 12/12/05 Wed 12/21/05 Mon 12/12/05 Wed 12/21/05 0 days 0 days
4 c Wed 12/21/05 Thu 12/29/05 Tue 1/3/06 Wed 1/11/06 9 days 9 days 9 days
5 d Thu 12/22/05 Wed 1/11/06 Thu 12/22/05 Wed 1/11/06 0 days 0 days
6 e Wed 1/11/06 Fri 1/20/06 Wed 1/11/06 Fri 1/20/06 0 days 0 days
7 f Fri 1/20/06 Mon 2/6/06 Fri 1/20/06 Mon 2/6/06 0 days 0 days
8 g Tue 2/7/06 Thu 2/16/06 Tue 2/7/06 Thu 2/16/06 0 days 0 days
9 End Thu 2/16/06 Thu 2/16/06 Thu 2/16/06 Thu 2/16/06 0 days 0 days
This view shows the View “Detail Gantt” combined with the “Schedule” Table. Note
that the Gantt chart also displays the slack as a green line.
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