April 13th 2011

Recommendation
Hold*
Upside/Downside
9.4%
Target Price
s
E£262.71 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)
Current Price
E£240.05 Valuation Update: Bumps won’t break stride

Construction story intact for the long term…short term weakness to creep up
EPS FY11f
E£21.04 While government expenditure will be a key priority to kick-start the economy, we remain skeptical about the
resiliency the Egyptian government will show in tendering big ticket projects this year, amidst the instability.
Reuters Code
OCIC.CA Elsewhere in the MENA region, infrastructure plans remain strong for markets such as Qatar, Abu Dhabi, and
Bloomberg Code Saudi Arabia, which OCI have highlighted as its main target markets. While management is optimistic that
OCIC EY construction activity in 2011 will be strong, reinforcing both, revenue and backlog growth during FY2011, we
Market Cap are inclined to be less optimistic. In the absence of a strong year on the awards side, revenue growth will be
E£49.7 billion limited to OCI’s current US$5.6 billion, its lowest backlog in three years, and 15% lower than the US$6.7
US$8.9 billion billion recorded in December 2009. We expect construction’s EBITDA to decline by c.11% in FY2011, with
backlog awards falling by 5%. We do not believe construction growth will rebound before FY2013.
Enterprise Value
E£60.1 billion Excitement driven by fertilisers, EBITDA of US$1 billion by 2012
US$10.9 billion
Our optimism is derived from capacity additions at Sorfert, EFC, and a full year’s consolidation at DSM,
Number of Shares Outstanding coupled with continued y-o-y price improvements for fertilisers, on the back of stretched grains supply /
206.9 million shares
demand dynamics. We expect OCI’s fertiliser’s EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 30% over the next three years.
Average Daily Turnover Through an increased contribution from the fertilisers’ portfolio, consolidated EBITDA margins are to reach
E£53.3 million 28% in FY2011, from the 22% achieved in FY2010. By FY2012, we expect OCI to command US$1 billion in
fertilisers’ EBITDA (with Sorfert contributing 25%), almost double the US$500 million achieved in FY2010.
52-Week high/ low
E£291.81/204.37 Lowering our FY2011 numbers, mainly due to construction
Shareholder Structure Our top line estimates of E£28.8 and E£28.5 billion for FY2011f and FY2012f, are 2% and 12%, respectively,
55%|Sawiris Family lower than our pre-crisis estimates, mainly due to the weak level of awards booked in FY2010, and because
45%|Free Float of the time lag of PPP infrastructure awards in Egypt. This has culminated into an EPS of E£21.04 (10%
higher than consensus) and E£24.47 (2% lower than consensus) for FY2011 and FY2012, 8% and 13%,
E£ OCI EGX30
315.0 respectively, lower than our pre-January 27th estimates.
295.0
275.0
Natural gas concessions to hold firm, in our view
255.0
“Water tight” agreements with the government over favourable natural gas concessions should withstand the
235.0
215.0 recent re-shuffle in government, in our opinion. Reneging on an agreement with an established private sector
195.0 employer of 80,000 people, would probably not be in the best interest of the government, looking to attract
175.0
FDI into Egypt. Assuming the scenario of an upward renegotiation of the agreement price in Egypt, to
US$3.00 (what other energy intensive producers pay) our DCF valuation is E£234, a drop of 9%.
We remain bullish on the OCI story, but see limited upside potential at current levels
* Refer to back cover for investment
The stock has recently rebounded strongly from its low of E£203, rising by 20% to E£244, which is 12%
rating
lower than the stock’s price of E£273 on January 24th. Our views on the company have not changed much
** Closing as of April 12h 2011 because of the turmoil in the MENA region, aside from a 200bps increase in the cost of equity used for
construction and Egyptian fertilisers operations. The company has recently announced an MOU to explore
fertiliser opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa, along with bidding for BASF European fertiliser assets. We
recommend a ‘Hold’ for OCI, until we get more color on the upcoming expansion plans.

Selected Indicators
FY end December 2009a 2010a 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f
Omar Taha Revenues (E£ mil.) 21,294 27,907 28,823 28,451 32,836 34,469
otaha@beltonefinancial.com
Tel: +20 (0) 3531 0316 EBITDA (E£ mil.) 4,276 6,177 7,152 8,098 9,054 8,892
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1 22.1 24.8 28.5 27.6 25.8
Allen Sandeep
asandeep@beltonefinancial.com Net Income (E£ mil.) 2,476 3,370 4,354 5,062 5,982 5,954
Tel: +20 (0) 3531 0329 EPS after Approp. (E£) 11.97 16.29 21.04 24.47 28.91 28.77
P/E (x) 20.1 14.7 11.4 9.8 8.3 8.3
P/B (x) 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 9.8 8.5 7.5 6.7 6.8
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2
Please see the important disclosures Total Debt/Equity 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3
contained on the last page of this
report. DPS (E£) 10.08 11.80 15.00 16.25 16.50 17.70
Dividend Yield (%) 4.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 6.9 7.4

Source: OCI, Beltone Financial estimates

 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Key Financial Figures

FY End December (E₤ million) 2009a 2010a 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f
Construction Revenues 18,733 18,967 18,416 16,335 19,975 21,796
Fertilisers Revenues 2,561 6,893 10,407 12,116 12,862 12,673
OCI Revenue 21,294 25,861 28,823 28,451 32,836 34,469
Revenue Growth (%) 5.1 31.1 3.3 (1.3) 15.4 5.0
Construction EBITDA 2,776 2,997 2,762 2,369 2,796 3,051
Fertilisers EBITDA 1,589 2,988 4,696 5,990 6,591 6,209
OCI EBITDA 4,276 6,177 7,152 8,098 9,054 8,892
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1 22.1 24.8 28.5 27.6 25.8
EBITDA Growth (%) (10.9) 44.5 15.8 13.2 11.8 (1.8)
Net Income 2,476 3,370 4,354 5,062 5,982 5,954
Net Profit Growth (%) (34.6) 36.1 29.2 16.3 18.2 (0.5)
ROA (%) 5.3 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.2 10.8
ROE (%) 15.1 19.2 23.2 24.7 25.9 23.5
Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2
Times Interest Earned (x) 5.8 6.9 9.3 11.4 17.2 18.7
DPS (E£) 10.1 11.8 15.0 16.3 16.5 17.7
Dividend Yield% 4.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 6.9 7.4
P/E (x) 20.1 14.7 11.4 9.8 8.3 8.3
P/BV (x) 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

Beltone Financial Research 2

 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Valuation

The stock is currently trading 12% lower than the price of E£273 on January 24th. Our views on the company We see limited upside
beyond the current price,
have not changed much because of the turmoil in the MENA region, aside from a 200bps increase in the cost and recommend a ‘Hold’
of equity used for construction and Egyptian fertilisers operations. We value OCI at E£262.71, assigning until we get more color on
the upcoming expansion
100% to our three-stage DCF valuation, and removing our peers multiples valuation, which stood at
plans
E£307.78.

Figure 1| OCI SOTP valuation

% of
Cost of Per total
Operation Country equity EV Stake OCI EV share value

Construction MENA 17.8% 25,063 100.0% 25,063 121 38%

EFC Egypt 18.5% 14,176 100.0% 14,176 69 22%

EBIC Egypt 18.5% 10,790 60.0% 6,474 31 10%

Sorfert Algeria 19.0% 29,918 37.5% 11,219 54 17%

OCI Nitrogen Netherlands 17.0% 4,826 100.0% 4,826 23 7%

Notore Nigeria 20.0% 6,773 13.5% 914 4 1%

Other equity
investments 2,813 2,813 14 4%
Enterprise Value 65,486
Latest net debt (as of
FY2010) (11,126)
Equity Value 54,359
Fair value per share 262.71
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

Possible expansion announcement coming soon…

Possible deal on the
Although we are bullish on the OCI story, we find limited upside potential from the current price. A potential
horizon might act as a
deal on the fertiliser front is possible, as management has previously emphasised its interest in the sector. trigger
The company has recently announced an MOU to form a 50/50 partnership with Maire Technimont to explore
fertiliser opportunities in Sub – Saharan Africa, which, depending on the opportunity, might represent an
upside to our valuation. In addition, we know that the company is currently involved in negotiations with
BASF for a portfolio of 2.5 million tonnes of nitrates fertilisers. Other companies also bidding for the assets
include Yara, EuroChem, and K+S AG (Germany’s potash producer that already has an agreement to market
BASF’s products). This acquisition would mimic OCI’s previous venture into Europe, with the OCI Nitrogen
OCI talking to BASF for a
assets (previously DSM). Our main justification surrounding the DSM deal was its cheap acquisition price at nitrogen fertilisers
EUR310 million, a 2.2x EV/EBITDA multiple on the subsidiary’s FY2010 results. We would be wary of OCI portfolio, with competition
from Yara, EuroChem and
overpaying for such an asset, amidst the stern competition it is facing in the bidding process. K+S AG

Figure 2| Implied valuation

2011 2012 2013
Current market price
PE (x) 11.4 9.8 8.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 7.5 6.7
P/B (x) 2.6 2.4 2.2
ROE (%) 23.2 24.7 25.9
Implied from our target price
PE (x) 12.5 10.7 9.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 8.1 7.2
P/B (x) 2.9 2.7 2.4
Construction peers
PE (x) 13.9 11.6 10.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 7.9 7.0
P/B (x) 2.0 - -
ROE (%) 11.2 12.5 13.2
PEG (x) 1.1 0.9 0.7
Fertilisers peers
PE (x) 14.5 12.8 11.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 8.1 8.1
P/B (x) 4.1 - -
ROE (%) 27.1 25.8 25.7
PEG (x) 1.1 1.0 0.9
Source: OCI, Bloomberg and Beltone Financial estimates

Beltone Financial Research 3

 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Construction story intact for the long term…

The recent political turmoil in the MENA region does not change our bullish view on the construction space, in We retain our bullish view
on the MENA region
view of the protestors’ demands of improved standards of living and eradication of corruption, vying for construction story
increased government expenditure. With an excess of c.US$800 billion outlined in infrastructure expenditure
throughout the region, and budget surplus in the GCC economies, we believe OCI’s prospects as an
experienced contractor in the region, will allow the company to benefit from a vibrant sector.

Management is of the view that the company will be able to record revenue growth, alongside an increase in A lag is expected in Egypt
for infrastructure spending,
its backlog during FY2011; we view this with some skepticism. Public expenditure will undoubtedly be a
due to the nature of the
means for the Egyptian government to kick-start the economy, but we believe that the PPP tendering pipeline interim government
will be facing a c.12 – 16 months time lag, due to the nature of the current interim government. Elsewhere in
the MENA region, infrastructure plans remain strong for markets such as Qatar, Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia,
which OCI have highlighted as its main target markets.

Figure 3| Backlog shrinks by 15%, y-o-y Figure 4| Diversified exposure of backlog

US$ billion
MENA Other,
8.00 7.61 Africa Other, GCC, 3.20%
1.70%
7.20 7.21 7.21 1.10%
6.87 7.00 6.93
7.00 6.65 6.50 -15% y-o-y As ia, 3.90%
6.28
6.02 Egypt, 27.50%
6.00 5.62 Euro pe, 11.00%

5.00

4.00 Dubai, 2.60%

2.90
3.00

2.00
1.16 1.17 Abu Dhabi,
0.97 0.93
1.00 0.71 0.79 0.68 15.00%
0.60 0.55
0.45 0.36
Algeria, 13.80%
0.00
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

Qatar, 20.30%
Backlog New awards

Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

…while we expect short-term weakness to creep up

OCI enters FY2011 with its lowest backlog value in three years, standing at US$5.62, with revenue outpacing We forecast a range of
new project awards in each of the last six quarters. The company has guided for construction revenue of US$3.0 – 3.2 billion, a drop
of 8%, y-o-y
US$3.6 – 4 billion, which would require the same number of new awards to at least maintain its level of
backlog. We forecast a range of US$3.0 – 3.2 billion for construction revenue, with our base case scenario
incorporating a 5% drop in new awards, from the US$2.6 billion booked in FY2010. We forecast OCI’s EBITDA
to drop by c.11% in FY2011, and another 9% decline in FY2012, stemming from a backlog of US$5.3 billion
by year – end 2011.

During the results call, Mr. Nassef Sawiris, OCI’s CEO, assured investors that the infrastructure portion of the
backlog, (60% of the value as of 4Q10), does not expose the receivables on the company’s balance sheet to a
default from sovereign clients, as the value of the contract is usually locked up in a fund until the project is
complete. Nevertheless, we would not rule out a minor stretch in the working capital for FY2011, on the back
of the increasing presence of sovereign entities in the company’s client list. However, this does not raise much
concern.

Figure 5| Construction awards recovery to be slow, in our opinion

2009a 2010a 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f
Beginning Backlog 6,930 6,650 5,620 5,076 5,729 5,780
% Revenue Growth 6% 2% -8% -11% 22% 9%
Construction Revenue 3,351 3,411 3,121 2,769 3,386 3,694
Backlog Additions 3,200 2,620 2,470 3,300 3,300 3,700
Ending Backlog 6,650 5,620 5,076 5,729 5,780 5,938

EBITDA 497 539 468 401 474 517

EBITDA Margin (%) 14.8 15.8 15.0 14.5 14.0 14.0
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

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 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Analysing the two scenarios for construction

We do not rule out the possibility of the governments taking extraordinary measures to provide an impetus
for economic activity in 2011. Infrastructure projects tendering would be at the forefront of such measures,
aiming to provide jobs and fulfill the protestors’ demands of better standards of living. We examine two
scenarios for OCI, in terms of new project awards, over the coming three years.

Figure 6| Construction awards recovery will be the catalyst

Bullish scenario for
Scenario 1 - Base case Scenario 2 - Bull case
construction would
Slow pickup in Egypt’s Strong acceleration in increase our valuation
Assumption infrastructure spending infrastructure expenditure by 18%, and above the
current price by 25%
Normalised construction awards (US$ million) 3,150 4,250
Fair value of construction segment (E£ per share) 121 167
OCI fair value (E£ per share) 262.71 305.14
Source: Beltone Financial estimates

Excitement driven by fertilisers

We expect OCI’s
Fertilisers’ EBITDA during FY2010 grew by 94%, y-o-y, mainly driven by the ramp-up at EBIC, the three fertilisers’ EBITDA to
quarters consolidation of OCI Nitrogen, price rebounds of 18% for urea, and 32% for ammonia, y-o-y. grow by 57% in FY11f,
Consolidated volumes grew by c.80% in 2010, versus 2009. The main catalyst we see in 2011 is the driven by a 25%
increase in volumes…
commencement of production in Algeria, expected sometime between 3Q and 4Q 2011, and to a less extent,
the first full year of consolidation of OCI Nitrogen. We forecast a 23% increase in volumes in 2011,
accompanied by another 25% increase in 2012, to reach 5 million tonnes by 2012, against the c.3.5 million
tonnes sold in 2010.

We expect fertiliser prices to continue growing in 2011, albeit at a slower pace than 2010. We forecast an …and 11% increases for
ammonia and urea
11% increase for both ammonia and urea in 2011, averaging US$367 and US$347, respectively. We do not prices
expect grain supply / demand dynamics to improve much during the year, as weather conditions continue to
constrain the harvesting season, against the ever-growing demand for food. Oil prices have increased by
c.25% since September 2010, on the back of instability in the MENA region, which will provide for an upswing
in fertiliser demand, increasing the use of agricultural produce to obtain biofuels. The seasonal upswing
witnessed in fertiliser prices over the last two months was expected, as farmers and traders re-stocked their
inventories prior to the spring application season.

Sorfert as the catalyst to earnings

The inclusion of the 51% owned Sorfert, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes of urea and 0.8 million
Sorfert to account for
tonnes of ammonia, is the major driver we foresee for the stock. Gradually ramping up capacity at the plant, 24% of fertilisers’
we expect Sorfert to account for 24% of OCI’s consolidated fertiliser EBITDA by FY2012f, operating at a EBITDA by FY2012f
c.75% EBITDA margin. For FY2011f we expect Sorfert to operate at 25% utilisation. Ramp-up at the plant
should take c.18 months, as demonstrated by the recent experience at EBIC. Clear benefits to Sonatrach,
owning 49% of the plant and entitled to an extra 13.5% of the dividends above a certain level of urea pricing
(which management has indicated is currently implementable), reassures us that OCI will be able to continue
managing the plant with little hassle from the Algerian authorities. For an added measure of scrutiny, we have
We only include 37.5%
only added 37.5% (post the extra dividend payment) of the plant’s valuation to OCI’s fair value. Operational of Sorfert’s valuation to
uncertainties that might arise from the plant are mainly geared toward any possible repatriation of dividends OCI
issues, or any extraordinary tax, but in reality:

− The company has not experienced any problems yet with the Algerian government, with respect to
repatriating dividends

− Substituting for the tax holiday, a 19% of net income re-investment clause, to be spent over four
years time, is currently in place

OCI Nitrogen investment proves to be a profitable one

The subsidiary recorded an annualised EBITDA of US$184 million for FY2010, against an acquisition cost of OCI Nitrogen realises an
US$400 million. At the time of the deal, we argued in favour of the deal because of the cheapness of the acquisition multiple of
2.2x EV/EBITDA
acquired assets, diversification into nitrates fertilisers, potential synergies with OCI’s plants in North Africa,
and the proximity to European markets, allowing the company to better distribute its products. We expect
OCI Nitrogen to continue reaping benefits, going forward, as the company moves away from its fixed gas
contracts towards a spot rate, as the oversupply in the Natural Gas market continues to weaken spot prices.

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 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Natural Gas concessions to hold firm, in our opinion

OCI’s favourable natural gas concessions, a major contributor to the company’s competitive advantage in the Natural Gas concessions
to hold firm, in our
fertilisers industry, representing c.65% of cash costs for the plants in Egypt, will continue to be a risk the view…
market factors in. We are of the belief that the Egyptian government will not want to renege on a contract
with a strong private sector participant such as OCI, employing over 80,000 people, especially in view of the
government’s plan to attract FDI back into Egypt. In the case of the government requesting to renegotiate
the current contracts, international arbitration is a possible route for the company, as its strong contractual In the scenario of a
renegotiated price with
agreements are “water-tight”, and are backed up by strong international and local law firms. Examining the the government
scenario of an upward renegotiation of the agreement price in Egypt, to US$3.00 (what other energy (US$3.00), our DCF
valuation comes to
intensive producers pay), our DCF valuation comes to E£234, 5% lower than the current market price. E£234

Figure 7| Fertiliser forecasts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Price assumptions (US$ per tonne)

Urea 266 313 351 365 376 368
Ammonia 251 331 371 389 405 397
CAN 236 287 286 291 282
EFC (Egypt)
Urea (000 tonnes) 1,359 1,323 1,323 1,425 1,440 1,455
Revenues (US$ million) 361 414 464 520 541 535
EBITDA (US$ million) 216 270 317 361 379 347

EBIC (Egypt)
Ammonia (000 tonnes) 385 630 665 672 679 679
Revenues (US$ million) 97 209 247 262 275 269
EBITDA (US$ million) 61 148 181 195 207 202
Sorfert (Algeria) at proportionate consolidation
Urea (000 tonnes) 0 0 153 490 563 581
Ammonia (000 tonnes) 0 0 102 326 408 408
Revenues (US$ million) 0 0 91 306 377 376
EBITDA (US$ million) 0 0 71 238 295 291
OCI Nitrogen *
Ammonia ('000 tonnes) 0 296 462 397 397 397
CAN ('000 tonnes) 0 906 1,167 1,410 1,410 1,410
UAN ('000 tonnes) 0 133 100 0 0 0
Melamine ('000 tonnes) 0 147 168 169 169 169
Total Revenues (US$ million) 0 870 917 920 940 920
Total EBITDA (US$ million) 0 145 193 186 199 177 OCI fertilisers EBITDA
to grow at a CAGR of
OCI Revenues (US$ million) 444 1,168 1,764 2,054 2,180 2,148 29% between 2011 -
OCI EBITDA (US$ million) 269 507 796 1,015 1,117 1,052 2013
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates
* FY2010 figures are for the last three quarters only

1Q2011 estimates

We expect a strong set of results from OCI, as fertiliser prices continued their strong seasonal upswing during 1Q2011 to show strong
growth, on the back of
the quarter. Ammonia prices rose by 15%, while CAN prices strengthened by 14%, while urea (consumed less seasonal upswing in
during a wet season), remained flat. We do not expect much repercussion on construction from the recent fertiliser prices
events in Egypt, with only c.10 days of idle activity.

Figure 8| Expecting a strong 1Q2011

Beltone Consensus Beltone Consensus
1Q10a 2Q10a 3Q10a 4Q10a 1Q11e 1Q11e FY11e FY11e
Revenue 986 1,342 1,250 1,319 1,300 1,214 4,885 5,147
EBITDA 234 269 266 318 351 1,212
Net Income 117 144 148 186 200 145 740 672
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

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 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Income Statement
FY End December (E₤ million) 2009a 2010a 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f
Construction Revenues 18,733 18,967 18,416 16,335 19,975 21,796
Fertilisers Revenues 2,561 6,893 10,407 12,116 12,862 12,673
Total Revenues 21,294 27,907 28,823 28,451 32,836 34,469
Construction Costs (14,594) (15,401) (15,101) (13,477) (16,579) (18,091)
Fertilisers Costs (903) (3,534) (5,129) (5,454) (5,562) (5,762)
Gross Profit 5,797 8,301 8,593 9,521 10,695 10,616
Selling and General Administrative Expenses (1,283) (1,646) (1,441) (1,423) (1,642) (1,723)
Depreciation (1,015) (1,475) (1,218) (1,320) (1,302) (1,258)
EBITDA 4,276 6,177 7,152 8,098 9,054 8,892
EBIT 3,449 4,702 5,934 6,778 7,752 7,635
Net Financing Cost (450) (613) (556) (516) (354) (283)
EBT 3,093 4,524 5,614 6,498 7,633 7,587
Income Tax (479) (846) (954) (1,105) (1,298) (1,290)
Net Income from continuing
operations 2,614 3,678 4,660 5,393 6,336 6,298
Gain on sale of discountinued operations 1,445 - - - - -
Net Profit for the period 5,444 2,614 3,678 4,660 5,393 6,336
Investment Income 2 93 434 236 236 236
Minority Interest (77) (138) (308) (306) (331) (353)
Net Income 2,476 3,370 4,354 5,062 5,982 5,954
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

Balance Sheet
FY End December (E₤ million) 2009a 2010a 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f

Cash 5,925 5,511 5,130 6,445 8,304 4,876

Receivables 9,750 11,283 11,857 10,070 12,039 11,943
Inventory 1,402 1,857 1,821 1,661 2,044 2,230
Other Current Assets 1,523 2,187 2,270 2,014 2,463 2,687
Total Current Assets 19,350 21,548 21,788 20,901 25,560 22,447
Net Fixed Assets 10,697 12,177 13,202 13,019 12,578 12,215
Other Long Term Assets 12,517 13,870 13,870 13,870 13,870 13,870
Total Long Term Assets 23,214 26,047 27,073 26,889 26,448 26,086
Total Assets 46,858 54,099 55,364 54,293 58,511 55,036
Short Term Debt 2,266 4,178 996 1,346 7,091 694
Payables 8,494 10,489 10,964 9,231 10,901 11,400
Provisions 650 888 361 361 361 361
Other Current Liabilities 4,019 3,301 3,706 3,142 3,905 4,157
Total Current Liabilities 15,429 18,856 16,026 14,079 22,258 16,611
Total Grey Area 750 1,020 1,326 1,657 2,010 2,354
Long Term Debt 11,219 12,816 15,260 13,915 6,823 6,130
Other LT Liabilities 3,066 3,853 3,948 4,138 4,347 4,578
Total LT Liabilities 14,285 16,669 19,208 18,052 11,171 10,707
Net Worth 16,393 17,554 18,804 20,504 23,072 25,364

Total Liabilities & Equity 46,858 54,099 55,364 54,293 58,511 55,036
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

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 Orascom Construction Industries (OCI)

Key Ratios
2009a 2010a 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f

Revenue Growth (%) 5.1 31.1 3.3 (1.3) 15.4 5.0

EBITDA Growth (%) (10.9) 44.5 15.8 13.2 11.8 (1.8)
Net Profit Growth (%) (34.6) 36.1 29.2 16.3 18.2 (0.5)
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1 22.1 24.8 28.5 27.6 25.8
Net Profit Margin (%) 12.3 13.2 16.2 19.0 19.3 18.3
EPS (E£) 12.0 16.3 21.0 24.5 28.9 28.8
ROA (%) 5.3 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.2 10.8
ROE (%) 15.1 19.2 23.2 24.7 25.9 23.5
Current Ratio (x) 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.4
Total Debt/Equity (x) 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3
Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.2
Times Interest Earned 5.8 6.9 9.3 11.4 17.2 18.7
DPS (E£) 10.1 11.8 15.0 16.3 16.5 17.7
Dividend Payout (%) 84.2 72.5 71.3 66.4 57.1 61.5
Dividend Yield% 4.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 6.9 7.4
P/E (x) 20.1 14.7 11.4 9.8 8.3 8.3
P/BV (x) 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 9.8 8.5 7.5 6.7 6.8
Source: OCI and Beltone Financial estimates

Beltone Financial Research 8

 Beltone Financial
Financial District, Building B211,
Cairo / Alexandria Desert Road,
Smart Village, 6 October, Egypt
Tel: +202 35310200
Fax: +202 35370685
E-mail: research@beltonefinancial.com
Website: www.beltonefinancial.com

Beltone Enclave Securities

Beltone Enclave Securities
19 West 44th street, 14th floor
Investment Rating New York, NY. 10036
Tel: +1 646 454 8620

Beltone Financial Securities

Upside
Buy - Emirates
Significantly overweight vs. The Fairmont, 2105 Sheikh Zayed Road
the Index Dubai, UAE, 213534
25%
Add Tel: +971 (4) 509 0300
Overweight vs. the Index Fax: +971 (4) 332 1203
5% Hold
Maintain index weight Beltone Financial Qatar LLC
-5%
Al Fardan Office Tower, West Bay
Reduce
P. O. Box 23959
Underweight vs. the Index
Doha, State of Qatar
-25%
Tel : +974 4410 1566
Sell
Fax : +974 4410 6610
Do not hold the stock

Downside

*The Rating is flexible and is subject to

analysts’ general outlook on the individual
companies

Sales and Trading

Disclaimer
Copyright © 2011 by Beltone Research ("Beltone"). All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in whole or in part
CAIRO
without prior written permission from Beltone. The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or Ahmed Hashem
solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security, nor a recommendation to participate in any particular trading strategy. Such ahashem@beltonefinancial.com
information is subject to change without prior notice. Although Beltone obtains information from sources it considers reliable, Beltone makes no Ahmed Kassem
representations or warranties as to the information's accuracy or completeness. Furthermore, such information may be incomplete or condensed. akassem@beltonefinancial.com
Beltone has no liability for any errors or omissions or for any losses arising from the use of this information. Investors shall bear all responsibility for Gamal Rashed
investment decisions taken on the basis of the contents of this report. Beltone strongly advises potential investors to seek financial guidance when grashed@beltonefinancial.com
determining whether an investment is appropriate to their needs. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of the Hassan Afifi
date published on the report and are subject to change without notice. hafifi@beltonefinancial.com
Ibrahim Abou-Elkheir
Beltone Investments Holding S.A.E. Free Zone has prepared this research report. For further information concerning this research report or any
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security described herein, please contact Beltone Enclave Securities, 708 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, 646-454-8600 (“Beltone Enclave”).
Kamal AbouShadi
Beltone Enclave is a division of Enclave Capital LLC, a U.S. broker-dealer that is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the
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This research report does not constitute, nor shall it be deemed, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, and has been mabdelaziz@beltonefinancial.com
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Any transactions in a security discussed in this report may be effected only through Beltone Enclave, which accepts full responsibility for this research weltahawy@beltonefinancial.com
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It should be noted that:

QATAR
Ahmed Mourad
amourad@beltonefinancial.com
• Neither Beltone Enclave nor any of its members or affiliates own shares of the subject company’s securities;
• Neither Beltone Enclave nor any of its members or affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of the subject company’s securities in
the past twelve (12) months, received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past twelve (12) NEW YORK
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months; ahamdy@beltoneenclave.com
• Beltone Enclave does not make a market in the subject company’s securities at the time this research report was published; and Karim Baghdady
kbaghdady@beltoneenclave.com
• At present, there are no material conflicts of interest known to Beltone Enclave at the time of the distribution of this research report.

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