SUMMARY OF HYDROLOGICAL SPECIALIST STUDY

The Government of the Republic of Mozambique (GOM) has received a grant from the
Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), an innovative United States established
foreign assistance program designed to reduce poverty by promoting sustainable
economic growth. The MCC operates on the principle that aid is most effective in
countries that promote good governance, economic freedom and investments in people.
The GOM, through MCA (Millennium Challenge Account-Mozambique, a public
institution created by the GOM) and its National Directorate of Water (DNA-GOH) organ,
intends to use a portion of the proceeds of this grant, to carry out feasibility studies
relating to the rehabilitation and augmentation of the Nacala Dam and Reservoir.

The Nacala Dam is located on the Muecula River approximately 30 kilometres south
west of Nacala. The dam is the primary water source for the town of Nacala which is
situated approximately 200 kilometres north east of Nampula City. This underlies the
importance of the dam for the future development of Nacala Town and its port.

The Nacala Dam was designed and constructed from 1968 to 1975. In 1982 the dam
wall was overtopped for 10 consecutive hours due to the non operation of the spillway
gates. This resulted in high seepage through the defective concrete on the right hand
side of the spillway which flooded the fill downstream of the core and may have been the
trigger for the concentrated erosion of the embankment in this area. In 1983 the wash
away area was reinstated and a layer of stone pitching was placed on the downstream
face of the wall as a protective measure against the possibility of future overtopping.
Further repairs were undertaken in 1995 and 2002 resulting in a pre-feasibility study into
the possibility of rehabilitating and raising the dam wall which was undertaken by
Michael Baker Jr. Inc. (Baker) in 2006.

In June 2009 Jeffares and Green (Pty) Ltd (J&G) were appointed to undertake the
Nacala Dam Feasibility Study, Environmental and Social Impact Assessment, Design
and Supervision Project. The Feasibility Study consists of many aspects and in
addressing these aspects J&G has developed a suite of reports comprising six volumes,
with a volume for each of the key parts of the study. This document represents the
Hydrological Report (Report No. FS/2010/HI02) which is Volume 2 of the suite of
reports.

The requirements of the hydrological investigation were as follows:

• Review the quality of the existing yield and flood hydrology undertaken by
Michael Baker Jnr in 2006 (Baker 2006) during the pre-feasibility stage of this
 project. Take adequate measures to resolve the possible implications for the use
of the data in subsequent hydrological analyses for the design and operational
phases of the project.
• Undertake a yield analysis of the reservoir system currently in place as well
investigating the impacts on the yield of raising the Full Supply Level (FSL) by a
minimum of two metres. A minimum of a 30 year climate record was required to
be used.
• Assess the Environmental Flow Requirements of the Muecula River and include
this in the yield analysis to assess its impact on the yield of the dam. Using this
information along with sedimentation information develop operating rules for the
dam.
• Undertake the design flood hydrology to be used in spillway design. Ensure the
peak flow figures make allowance for the tropical cyclones and large storms that
frequent the northern Mozambique coast line. The return periods for the design
floods should be in accordance with local standards but if there is a significant
discrepancy between this standard and international best practice it is required to
carry out an assessment of both.
• Undertake an assessment of the historical sedimentation rates from construction
of the reservoir to present, including the bathymetrical survey undertaken in
2001. Utilise the sedimentation rates to assess the potential impacts on the
reservoir volume-area-storage rating curves.

As a result of the above mentioned requirements the investigation was broken down into
four main sections:
• Yield hydrology
• Environmental flow requirements
• Sediment yield
• Flood hydrology

Yield Hydrology
In essence, the purpose of the yield hydrology analysis was to assess the water
resource capability (or “yield”) of Nacala Dam, both currently and after it has been
raised. In addition to this assess the impacts of making releases to support downstream
environmental flow requirements and the possible long-term loss of available storage in
the dam as a result of sedimentation. The analysis included a number of aspects such
as the following:
• The analysis and processing of hydro-meteorological data (i.e. rainfall,
 evaporation and streamflow) and the application of these in a rainfall-runoff
modelling process
• The determination of the physical basin characteristics of Nacala Dam, the
impacts of sedimentation and the magnitude and temporal distribution of
appropriate environmental flow releases.
• Yield analyses were undertaken for selected scenarios based on the above
information.

A thorough data collection process was undertaken resulting in a comprehensive

patching exercise to develop a catchment representative rainfall record of sufficient
length and reliability. This was used in the generation of streamflows in conjunction with
the WRSM2000 model with the results of this used as the input time series to the
enhanced Water Resources Yield Model (WRYM). A summary of the scenarios used
during the yield analysis is provided in the table below.

Summary of Yield Analysis Scenarios

(3)
Nacala Dam characteristics EFR Sediment
allocation
(1) Live storage Average to live
# Name FSL (4)
Raised req. storage
(m (million Class
(m) % MAR
(2) (million (million
AMSL) m)
3 3 3
m /a) m)

A Present - 76.50 3.99 34 % - - -

B +2m 2.00 78.50 6.62 57 % - - -
C +2m&EFR_C 2.00 78.50 6.62 57 % C 2.78 -
D +2m&EFR_C&Sed 2.00 78.50 4.76 41 % C 2.78 1.86
E +2.25m 2.25 78.75 7.01 60 % - - -

Notes: (1) Full supply level, shown in metres above mean sea level.
3
(2) Mean annual runoff, which equals 11.7 million m /a (as discussed in Section 2.6.3).
(3) Desktop Class C environmental flow requirement (EFR).
(4) Sediment allocation to live storage over a planning period of 50 years.

A summary of the results obtained from the yield analysis is provided in the table below.

Summary of Yield Analysis Results

(1) 3
HFY Yield (million m /a)
# Name (2)
(million at indicated RI (and annual assurance of supply)
 3
m /a) 1:20 1:50 1:100 1:200 Difference
(95 %) (98 %) (99 %) (99.5 %) at 1:50

A Present 4.7 5.7 5.1 4.8 4.6 -

B +2m 6.3 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.3 0.9
C +2m&EFR_C 4.4 4.8 4.3 4.1 3.8 -1.6
D +2m&EFR_C&Sed 3.9 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 -0.6
E +2.25m 6.4 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.4 0.1

Notes: (1) Historical firm yield, based on an analysis over a 50-years period, from 1956 to 2005 (hydrological years).
(2) Recurrence interval of failure, in years, based on a long-term stochastic yield analysis of 201 50-year
generated streamflow sequences.

Environmental Flow Requirements

Due to the Muecula River having insufficient flow for the initial part of the study, the
Rapid Level IV Reserve determination has not yet been undertaken. Hence it was
decided that a desktop reserve determination be completed as an interim measure. A
conservative approach was adopted (taking into account that there have been no
environmental releases from the dam since it was commissioned), thus selecting an
environmental flow release equivalent to a Desktop Model Class C for the catchment.

The Desktop Model produced the following figure for the EFR:
2.497 Mm3/ann = 21.4 % MAR

Sediment Yield Analysis

The sedimentation deposition rate was calculated using the results of the bathymetric
survey carried out in 2001 combined with the results of the bathymetric survey carried
out as part of the current study. This provided 36 years of actual recorded sediment
deposition when assessing the change in capacity of the reservoir from the time of
construction until now. This figure was then converted into an annual average over the
36 years and this was extrapolated forward to obtain a 50 year value. The 2009 survey
showed that 14 % of the sediment fell within the dam’s dead storage, hence leaving 86%
within the live storage portion of the dam. The sediment figure used in the yield analysis
was:
Nacala Dam V50 = 86 % × 2.17 Mm3
Nacala Dam V50 = 1.86 Mm3
Design Flood Hydrology
A review of the design flood hydrology was undertaken in order to determine the peak
discharge figures to be used in the design of the new spillway and the freeboard of the
raised embankment.

Due to a shortage of information empirical methods were largely used as a basis for the
calculation of the Safety Evaluation Flood (SEF) and the Recommended Design Flood
(RDF). The local Mozambican Guidelines for dam classification were consulted along
with the South African National Committee on Large Dams (SANCOLD) Guidelines. The
Francou Rodier Method was used for the calculation of the SEF with a K factor of 5.2
being applicable as per the specifications from the SANCOLD Guidelines. Five methods
were used to calculate the intermediate return periods (specifically the 1:200 year return
period) for the RDF. Some of these methods were empirically based and some
deterministic. The RDF figure was then routed through the impoundment using the
process of Level Pool Routing.

The outcome of the design flood hydrology was the following:

RMF+∆ = SEF = 1 530 m3/s
RDF = 800 m3/s
Routed RDF = 734 m3/s

The results presented in this report were then used in the preliminary design of the
spillway and the raised embankment (refer to Volume 4, Preliminary Design Report,
FS/2010/PD04).