Market Report

May 4, 2011
U.S.D.A. World Market Price:
World Market Price This week Last week 1 Year Ago 2010 Loan WMP and Loan Rates
LDP
Value Factors 05/04/10 04/27/10 05/05/10 Factors ‘10 crop L/G M/G
Long Grain To be 18.76 15.47 00.00 9.91 Yield 52.78/14.31 61.03/8.69
Medium Grain issued 18.44 15.19 00.00 9.65 WMP 11.80 12.41
Short Grain May 4 18.44 15.19 00.00 9.65 Loan 6.23 6.50
Brokens 8:30am 13.27 10.65 - 7.01 Difference (5.57) (5.91)

Posting: (May/June Shipment)

Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $22.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $22.50 per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.0 per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $550.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $24.00 per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $21.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $540.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) #1/4 Parb no quote per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $600.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $280.00 per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA
Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs) #4/20/hm $20.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $20.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled #2/4% no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Package Quality
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken (0.8% damage) Pkg. Parb. $28.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $21.50 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Pkg. L/G $24.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $31.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. M/G $35.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
California - Medium Grain
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $835.00 per mt sacked containerized FOB Mill
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $875.00 per mt sacked containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) #1/7% $875.00 per mt sacked in 30kg bags FOB vessel
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) #3 Brown $810.00 per mt in totes containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #1 58/69 $550.00 per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37-$38 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $15.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled) contracts M/A $13.50 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
U.S. California Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $19.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers contracts M/A $14.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
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May 4, 2011 - Page 1 of 4

Far East Report
SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS
In Thailand, the market is relatively steady with prices
mostly sideways. As aforementioned in our report last
week, Thailand has begun to regain market share in key
destinations like West Africa, now that Thai prices are equal to and
even lower than Viet prices in some cases.
Thai 100% B is quoted at $500 per mt FOB Bangkok; 5% is $480;
and parboil is $505. White brokens, fragrant brokens, and Hom Mali
are all quite firm ($415, $460, and $930 respectively).
As far as fresh business is concerned, we have been
anticipating another IGB tender being floated very soon.
However, according to wire service reports on Tuesday,
the Director of the Grain Board was involved in a roadside
bombing (apparent assassination), but did survive. Reportedly, he
will have to undergo surgery. Consequently, there is no
way of knowing when the next tender will be.
In Vietnam, prices have been on a steady increase over
the past 4-6 weeks, such that they are equal to or above
Thai equivalents today.
The main focus in the market as regards new biz is
the eminent Philippines purchase program. So far, the
government has issued 600,000 mt in licenses to privates.
As I understand it, the private importers who have said
licenses offer on NFA tenders, the first of which was held
on Monday. Like myself, many are confused about how this new
process will work and the numbers being tossed around for total
import needs, which range from 860,000 mt (200,000 mt already
bought via G to G deal with Vinafood) to 1.4 MMT, which dwarfs
in comparison to the 2.45 MMT bought last year. The government
maintains that a bigger local crop and carryover stocks are the
reasons for the much reduced import needs...we shall see if these
numbers play out, or if there is a bit of strategy being applied here.
In any event, once awarded, the private importer would buy the rice
from the designated origin offered and bring it in and turn it over to
the NFA for internal storage and distribution. It seems to be a very
awkward and complicated manner of buying, but perhaps, in their
eyes, a way to involve private enterprise in the process.
Otherwise the market undertone is steady to firm.
Thailand Exports
Jan. 1 - Apr. 24, 2011: 3,568,451 mt
Jan. 1 - Apr. 24, 2010: 2,466,126 mt
Jan. 1 - Apr. 23, 2009: 2,557,689 mt
INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND BANGLADESH
In India, the primary dialogue continues to revolve
around the possibility of lifting or easing the export ban
on non-Basmati rice. As iterated in our report last week,
political party leaders and farm groups have joined in
the effort to relinquish some of the burdensome buffer stocks onto
the export market. The farmers position is that the overwhelming
supplies combined with an export ban are pushing down domestic
prices. The exporters and mills position is one of increasing
commerce. And, the government’s position is one of curbing
inflation...all very strong arguments with a great deal of merit, but
very little homogeny. We look for a continued easing of the ban with
exceptions to neighboring core markets with human relief efforts at
the heart and soul of the decision, along with the sale of varieties like
1121 that closely emulate Basmati.
Now, it is time to address Pakistan. Given the raid by
U.S. Navy SEALS on Sunday and the subsequent finding
and killing of Osama Bin Laden, I find it extremely
difficult to discuss the rice trade nor commerce in general,
especially since the market is quiet to begin with. Given his “hideout”
for (reportedly) six years resided in a compound within an hours drive
of the nation’s capital (Islamabad), not to mention a military training
center similar to our West Point Academy, many questions are being
raised by the U.S. government and the press about the government of
Pakistan’s knowledge of his whereabouts. And, I suspect there will
be many more questions asked in the weeks and months ahead. AP
reported that Congress may decrease foreign aid by $1.3 billion.
Back to rice, for nominal purposes, IRRI-6 5% is being quoted
at $470-490 per mt FOB Karachi; whilst 25% is $420-430. Export
activity continues to be limited to Basmati shipments to various
destinations, along with the container shipments to east Africa and
border trade with Iran.

OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Uru. Arg. Brazil
100%B $500.00 5% $485.00 Export ban, MEP $900
5% $480.00 5% N/A 5% $470.00 $515.00 $515.00
10% $475.00 10% $480.00 10% N/A 10% no quote $505.00 $505.00
15% $470.00 15% $470.00 15% N/A 15% no quote no quote no quote
25% $455.00 25% $450.00 25% N/A 25% $425.00
Parb. 5% N/A Parb 5% $510.00 $480.00
Brokens $415.00 Brokens $415.00 Var. 1121 $1350 Parb 15%* $500.00 Brokens
Parb. 100B sorted $505.00 MEP-5% $490.00 Basmati Brokens $390.00 $385
Thai Hom Mali $905.00 MEP-25% $470.00 Traditional $1800 Basmati Paddy
Frag. Brokens $450.00 Pusa $1300 S. Kernal $1300.00 $300.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port *Bangladesh Specs.

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May 4, 2011 - Page 2 of 4

 CBOT Rough Rice Futures (05/03/11 Volume: 2,974 Open Interest: 23,877)
Contract Tuesday’s Close Net Change From Prices
Month Price Monday Last Report One Year Ago 05/04/10
‘11 May $15.145 UP 0.170 UP 0.795 ‘10 May $12.085
‘11 Jul $15.390 UP 0.195 UP 0.725 ‘10 Jul $12.320
‘11 Sep $16.165 UP 0.155 UP 0.775 ‘10 Sep $11.950
‘11 Nov $16.450 UP 0.155 UP 0.770 ‘10 Nov $12.060
‘12 Jan $16.720 UP 0.150 UP 0.760 ‘11 Jan $12.355
‘12 Mar $16.995 UP 0.110 UP 0.725 ‘11 Mar $12.650

U.S. Paddy Market Report grain at $11.00 per cwt loaded barge up-river while sellers’ price ideas
are $12.00 per cwt.
Texas - Buyers’ bids are stronger this week with bids ranging $5.75-
$6.50 per cwt over loan. New crop planting is 90% completed. California - No change. 2010 Calrose M/G is $13.50 - $13.75 per cwt
over loan. 2011 new crop is bid at $13.00 per cwt over load with the
Louisiana - Bids are unchanged this week at $10.90 per cwt FOB farm. last trade at $13.10 per cwt over loan.
New crop planting in southwest Louisiana is almost completed.
Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop)
Mid South - Rain continues to cause many problem. Several areas
are flooded and are in danger of additional flooding as river system Texas Louisianna Mid-South California
are at, or above, flood stage. Continued delays may result in more Long grain $12.25-13.00 $10.90 $10.00b/11.00a *
acres being planted with other crops (i.e. soybeans). Some growers
Med Grain * 14.50 new crop $17.25 $20.55
have been able to water plant by air, but if the land is not under a
controlled flood by irrigation then the grower may not be able to get L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
insurance. The cash market is basically unchanged with bids for long * - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.

U.S. Report
U.S. GULF, MERCOSUR, & FUTURES
Since, of all things, even the radio sports talk shows have
led with the news of Bin Laden’s killing, so will I. Sunday, May
1, 2011 will actually become a May Day that Americans will
celebrate for years to come. As we all know, May Day is not a
formal U.S. holiday, rather a labor day holiday for FSU, and some
European and Latin American countries. However, henceforth,
I think historians will declare this some kind of holiday, day of
remembrance, whatever. Thanks to 24 very brave NAVY SEALS
and superb U.S. intelligence, the job we have been trying to do for
ten years has successfully been concluded...THANK GOD!
In sharp contrast to the aforementioned world news, our rice
market is very quiet amid very little fresh demand offshore. The
biggest topic of discussion has been the torrential storms and
inundating rains, along with destructive and killer tornadoes that
have growers in a quandary as to whether they will be able to plant.
Several rivers and their tributaries throughout the central part of
the U.S., including the Mississippi, Arkansas, White, Black, and
Illinois rivers to name a few threaten to come out of their banks
and/or already have flooded thousands of acres of farmland. The
$64,000 question is whether the rains will stop and the water
recede in time to plant. Historically, the end of May or early June
is about as late as the growers in Missouri and Northeast Arkansas
can plant, or replant as the case may be.
It should come as no surprise that the futures have rallied on
this developing issue. Rice contracts were up $0.72-0.80 for the
week and about 17 points on Tuesday alone.
It should be duly noted that it is still too early to make concrete
forecast as to the reduction in acreage due to these storms...we are
still 4-5 weeks away from that. And, let us not lose sight of the fact
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com
that we face a carryover of about 2 MMT. In short, the jury is still
out on this one.
For nominal purposes, vendors are still quoting #2-4% at
around $515-525 per mt bagged FOB or around $490-$500 basis
bulk.
The paddy market is dormant account the condition of the
rivers.
CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA & THE “MED”
The market remains quite firm as mills continue to ship
against old contracts for Japan, Korea, Libya, and
the domestic market. This has the mills mostly
booked well into June when PG&E power hours kick
in.
As iterated in the past few weeks, so far there has
been no interruption in the Japanese and Libyan
shipments.
Prices are steady to firm with #1-4% quoted at
$37 per cwt. bulk FOB mill or $875 CY Oakland.
In Australia, the harvest is nearing completion
and our estimate of 800,000 mt basis paddy still
stands.
Of particular note, the negotiations between Spanish food
giant Ebro Puleva’s takeover of Sunrice continue to unfold
and reportedly the offer has been sweetened a bit since the
negotiations started.
Also, we understand Sunrice has announced that their
Deniliquin mill is now in full production after being moth
balled for several years due to drought.
All in all, the state of the global medium grain market
remains strong.

May 4, 2011 - Page 3 of 4

Upcoming Tenders: USDA Export Sales Highlights
(April 15 - 21, 2011)
None
Sales

Tenders Results:
April 26 KCCO Inv. 2000000044 (amended to delay
bids to April 28) tender to buy 3250mt of US #5/20% long grain.
KCCO bought 3250mt at $427.91 per mt intermodal Lake Charles.
May 3 KCCO Inv. 2000000064 tender to buy 1030mt of US
#5/20% long grain, well milled; and 1030mt of US #5/20% medium
grain, well milled for shipment inland plants June 1-15, 16-30, 2011.
Results Pending.
Exports
Upcoming Events:
June 7-9, 2011 TRT Americas Conference 2011
Hotel Riu Plaza Panama, Panama City, Panama
For more info go to: http://trtamericas.com/
June 26-30, 2011 USA Rice Millers’ Association Convention
For more info go to:
http://www.usarice.com
Please note:
June 8 No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued
account our attendance at the TRT Americas
Conference.
June 29 No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued
account our attendance at the RMA convention.
Net sales of 38,700 MT were down 41 percent from the
previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week
average. Increases were reported for:
Haiti (14,100 MT)
Mexico (12,800 MT)
Honduras (5,400 MT)
El Salvador (2,000 MT)
Canada (1,600 MT)
Exports of 53,300 MT were down 7 percent from the
previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week
average. The primary destinations were:
Nicaragua (11,900 MT)
Haiti (7,000 MT)
Costa Rica (6,000 MT)
Mexico (5,700 MT)
El Salvador (5,100 MT)
Source: USDA

USDA Crop Progress

Rice Planted - Selected States -- Week Ending Rice Emerged - Selected States -- Week Ending
May 1, April 24, May 1, 2006- 2010 May 1, April 24, May 1, 2006- 2010
State State
2010 2011 2011 Avg. 2010 2011 2011 Avg.
Arkansas 89 44 45 70 Arkansas 58 23 33 41
California 12 1 5 14 California - - - 3
Louisiana 92 92 94 88 Louisiana 78 71 81 74
Mississippi 77 57 71 73 Mississippi 55 28 53 48
Missouri 90 13 13 62 Missouri 51 3 5 29
Texas 91 87 92 90 Texas 61 71 78 77
6 States 77 46 49 66 6 States 51 28 37 42

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (virtually no spot supply available for sale in South, except hulls)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $110-$115 $110 Not Available ($110) $140-$150
Mill Feed: $45 $30 Not Available ($40)
Ground Hulls: $5 $5 $15
Unground Hulls: $5 $5 $12 $8

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Ph 1.713.782.3260  Fax 1.713.782.4671  www.creedrice.com  email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net
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May 4, 2011 - Page 4 of 4