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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

INTRODUCTION

“We are moving from a world in which the big eat the small to one in which the fast eat the
slow”.-Klaus Schwab, 2000 (founder of the World Economic Forum)

“A strong and vibrant cash market is a pre-condition for a successful and transparent futures
market.”
Before the North American futures market originated some 150 years ago, farmers would grow
their crops and then them to market in the hope of selling their commodity of inventory. But
without any indication of demand, supply often exceeded what was needed, and not purchased
crops were left to rot in the streets. Conversely, when a given commodity such soybeans were out
of season, the goods made from it became very expensive because the crop was no longer
available, lack of supply.

In the mid-19th century, grain markets were established and a central marketplace was created for
farmers to bring their commodities and sell them either for immediate delivery (spot trading) or for
forward delivery. The latter contracts, forwards contracts, were the fore-runners to today’s future
contracts. In fact, this concept saved many farmers from the loss of crops and helped stabilize
supply and prices in the off-season.

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. These raw
commodities are traded on regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are bought and sold in
standardized contracts,

A commodity exchange is an exchange where various commodities and derivatives products are
trade. Most commodity markets across the world trade in agriculture products and other raw
materials like wheat, barley, sugar, maize, cotton, cocoa, coffee, milk products, metals, etc. and
contract based on them. These contracts based on them. These contracts can include spot prices,
forwards, futures and options.

Commodities exchanges usually trade futures contracts on commodities, such as trading contracts
to receive something, say corn, in a certain month. A former raising corn can sell a future contract
on his corn, which will not be harvested for several months, and guarantee the price he will be paid
when he delivers; a breakfast cereal producer buys the contract now and guarantees the price will

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Not go up when it is delivered. This protects the farmer from price drops and the buyer from price
rises. Speculators and investors also buy and sell the future contracts to make a profit and provide
liquidity to the system.

Commodities have occupied a large space in everyone’s life without even notifying them. Man has
bought commodities either for their survival or to make their life comfortable. But at present
scenario one can reverse the cycle i.e. by trading in commodities and make money. Yes, it is just
like buying and selling of shares of companies, one can buy and sell commodities. The
commodities market is one of the oldest prevailing markets in the human history. It dates back to
Greek times when olive trees were auctioned and the future market was born. In fact, during the
17th century, rice futures were traded in china.

Commodities are much diversified and each commodity has got its own value which keeps on
changing according to their demand in the market. This fluctuation can differ from time to time
owing to numerous factors.

In this project is specifically focused on Gold and Silver, the precious metals. Gold and silver are
most talked about commodities. This study gives a complete picture to the investor about the
investment in gold and silver.

Commodity
Any product that can be used for commerce or an article of commerce which is traded on an
authorized commodity exchange is known as commodity. The article should be movable of
value, something which is bought or sold and which is produced or used as the subject or barter
or sale. Indian Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act (FCRA), 1952 defines “goods” as “every
kind of movable property other than actionable claims, money and securities”.
In current situation, all goods and products of agricultural (including plantation), mineral and
fossil origin are allowed for commodity trading recognized under the FCRA. The national
commodity exchanges, recognized by the Central Government, permits commodities which
include precious (gold and silver) and non-ferrous metals, cereals and pulses, ginned and un-
ginned cotton, oilseeds, oils and oilcakes, raw jute and jute goods, sugar and gur, potatoes and
onions, coffee and tea, rubber and spices. Etc.

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Commodity market:-
Commodity market is an important constituent of the financial markets of any country. It is the
market where a wide range of products, viz., precious metals, base metals, crude oil, energy
and soft commodities like palm oil, coffee etc. are traded. It is important to develop a vibrant,
active and liquid commodity market. This would help investors hedge their commodity risk,
take speculative positions in commodities and exploit arbitrage opportunities in the market

Commodity markets are markets where raw or primary products are exchanged. These raw
commodities are traded on regulated commodities exchanges, in which they are bought and sold
in standardized contracts.

The modern commodity markets have their roots in the trading of agricultural products. While
wheat and corn, cattle and pigs, were widely traded using standard instruments in the 19th
century in the United States, other basic foodstuffs such as soybeans were only added quite
recently in most markets. For a commodity market to be established, there must be very broad
consensus on the variations in the product that make it acceptable for one purpose or another.

The economic impact of the development of commodity markets is hard to overestimate.


Through the 19th century "the exchanges became effective spokesmen for, and innovators of,
improvements in transportation, warehousing, and financing, which paved the way to expanded
interstate and international trade."

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History of commodity markets


Commodities future trading was evolved from need of assured continuous supply of seasonal
agricultural crops. The concept of organized trading in commodities evolved in Chicago, in
1848. But one can trace its roots in Japan. In Japan merchants used to store Rice in warehouses
for future use. To raise cash warehouse holders sold receipts against the stored rice. These were
known as “rice tickets”. Eventually, these rice tickets become accepted as a kind of commercial
currency. Latter on rules came in to being, to standardize the trading in rice tickets. In 19th
century Chicago in United States had emerged as a major commercial hub. So that wheat
producers from Mid-west attracted here to sell their produce to dealers & distributors. Due to
lack of organized storage facilities, absence of uniform weighing & grading mechanisms
producers often confined to the mercy of dealers discretion. These situations lead to need of
establishing a common meeting place for farmers and dealers to transact in spot grain to deliver
wheat and receive cash in return.

Gradually sellers & buyers started making commitments to exchange the produce for cash in
future and thus contract for “futures trading” evolved. Whereby the producer would agree to sell
his produce to the buyer at a future delivery date at an agreed upon price. In this way producer
was aware of what price he would fetch for his produce and dealer would know about his cost
involved, in advance. This kind of agreement proved beneficial to both of them. As if dealer is
not interested in taking delivery of the produce, he could sell his contract to someone who needs
the same. Similarly producer who not intended to deliver his produce to dealer could pass on the
same responsibility to someone else. The price of such contract would dependent on the price
movements in the wheat market. Latter on by making some modifications these contracts
transformed in to an instrument to protect involved parties against adverse factors such as
unexpected price movements and unfavorable climatic factors. This promoted traders entry in
futures market, which had no intentions to buy or sell wheat but would purely speculate on price
movements in market to earn profit.
Trading of wheat in futures became very profitable which encouraged the entry of other
commodities in futures market. This created a platform for establishment of a body to regulate
and supervise these contracts. That’s why Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was established in
1848. In 1870 and 1880s the New York Coffee, Cotton and Produce Exchanges were born.
Agricultural commodities were mostly traded but as long as there are buyers and sellers, any

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commodity can be traded. In 1872, a group of Manhattan dairy merchants got together to bring
chaotic condition in New York market to a system in terms of storage, pricing, and transfer of
agricultural products. In 1933, during the Great Depression, the Commodity Exchange, Inc. was
established in New York through the merger of four small exchanges – the National Metal
Exchange, the Rubber Exchange of New York, the National Raw Silk Exchange, and the New
York Hide Exchange.
The largest commodity exchange in USA is Chicago Board of Trade, The Chicago Mercantile
Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange, the New York Commodity Exchange and New
York Coffee, sugar and cocoa Exchange. Worldwide there are major futures trading exchanges
in over twenty countries including Canada, England, India, France, Singapore, Japan, Australia
and New Zealand.

International Commodity Exchanges


Futures’ trading is a result of solution to a problem related to the maintenance of a year round
supply of commodities/ products that are seasonal as is the case of agricultural produce. The
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Brazil, Australia, Singapore are homes to leading
commodity futures exchanges in the world.

The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX)


The New York Mercantile Exchange is the world’s biggest exchange for trading in physical
commodity futures. The exchange is in existence since last 132 years and performs trades trough
two divisions, the NYMEX division, which deals in energy and platinum and the COMEX
division, which trades in all the other metals.
Commodities traded: - Light sweet crude oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Gasoline, RBOB
Gasoline, Electricity Propane, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Platinum, Palladium, etc.

London Metal Exchange


The London Metal Exchange (LME) is the world’s premier non-ferrous market, with highly
liquid contracts. The exchange was formed in 1877 as a direct consequence of the industrial
revolution witnessed in the 19th century.

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Commodities traded:- Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, Lead, Tin, Zinc, Aluminum Alloy, North
American Special Aluminum Alloy (NASAAC), Polypropylene, Linear Low Density
Polyethylene, etc.

The Chicago Board of Trade


The first commodity exchange established in the world was the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
during 1848 by group of Chicago merchants who were keen to establish a central market place for
trade. Presently, the Chicago Board of Trade is one of the leading exchanges in the world for
trading futures and options. More than 50 contracts on futures and options are being offered by
CBOT currently through open outcry and/or electronically.
Commodities Traded: - Corn, Soybean, Oil, Soybean meal, Wheat, Oats, Ethanol, Rough Rice,
Gold, and Silver etc.

Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM)


The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is the second largest commodity futures exchange in
the world. It trades in to metals and energy contracts. It has made rapid advancement in
commodity trading globally since its inception 20 years back. TOCOM’s recent tie up with the
MCX to explore cooperation and business opportunities is seen as one of the steps towards
providing platform for futures price discovery in Asia for Asian players in Crude Oil since the
demand-supply situation in U.S. that drives NYMEX is different from demand-supply situation in
Asia
Commodities traded: - Gasoline, Kerosene, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Aluminum,
Rubber, etc
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is the largest futures exchange in the US and the largest
futures clearing house in the world for futures and options trading. Formed in 1898 primarily to
trade in Agricultural commodities, the CME introduced the world’s first financial futures more
than 30 years ago.
Commodities Traded: - Butter milk, Diammonium phosphate, Feeder cattle, frozen pork bellies,
Lean Hogs, Live cattle, Non-fat Dry Milk, Urea, Urea Ammonium Nitrate, etc.

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Introduction to Indian commodity market


India, a commodity based economy where two-third of the one billion population depends on
agricultural commodities, surprisingly has an under developed commodity market. The vast
geographical extent of India and her huge population is aptly complemented by the size of
her market. The broadest classification of the Indian Market can be made in terms of the
commodity market and the bond market.
India Commodity Market can be subdivided into the following two categories:
• Wholesale Market
• Retail Market
The traditional wholesale market in India dealt with whole sellers who bought goods from the
farmers and manufacturers and then sold them to the retailers after making a profit in the
process. It was the retailers who finally sold the goods to the consumers. With the passage of
time the importance of whole sellers began to decline due to various reasons.
In recent years, the extent of the retail market (both organized and unorganized) has
evolved in leaps and bounds. In fact, the success stories of the commodity market of India in
recent years has mainly centered on the growth generated by the Retail Sector. Almost every
commodity under the sun both agricultural and industrial is now being provided at well distributed
retail outlets throughout the country.

Moreover, the retail outlets belong to both the organized as well as the unorganized sector. The
unorganized retail outlets of the yesteryears consist of small shop owners who are price takers
where consumers face a highly competitive price structure. The organized sectors on the other
hand are owned by various business houses like Pantaloons, Reliance, Tata and others. Such
markets are usually selling a wide range of articles both agricultural and manufactured, edible and
inedible, perishable and durable. Modern marketing strategies and other techniques of sales
promotion enable such markets to draw customers from every section of the society. However the
growth of such markets has still centered on the urban areas primarily due to infrastructural
limitations.
Considering the present growth rate, the total valuation of the Indian Retail Market is estimated
to cross Rs. 10,000 billion in the year 2010. Demand for commodities is likely to become four
times by 2012 than what it presently is.

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History of Commodity Market in India


The history of organized commodity derivatives in India goes back to the nineteenth century when
Cotton Trade Association started futures trading in 1875, about a decade after they started in
Chicago. Over the time datives market developed in several commodities in India. Following
Cotton, derivatives trading started in oilseed in Bombay (1900), raw jute and jute goods in
Calcutta (1912), Wheat in Hapur (1913) and Bullion in Bombay (1920).
However many feared that derivatives fuelled unnecessary speculation and were detrimental to the
healthy functioning of the market for the underlying commodities, resulting in to banning of
commodity options trading and cash settlement of commodities futures after independence in
1952. The parliament passed the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952, which regulated
contracts in Commodities all over the India. The act prohibited options trading in Goods along
with cash settlement of forward trades, rendering a crushing blow to the commodity derivatives
market. Under the act only those associations/exchanges, which are granted reorganization from
the Government, are allowed to organize forward trading in regulated commodities. The act
envisages three tire regulations: (i) Exchange which organizes forward trading in commodities can
regulate trading on day-to-day basis. (ii) Forward Markets Commission provides regulatory
oversight under the powers delegated to it by the central Government. (iii) The Central
Government- Department of Consumer Affairs, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public
Distribution- is the ultimate regulatory authority.
The commodities future market remained dismantled and remained dormant for about four
decades until the new millennium when the Government, in a complete change in a policy, started
actively encouraging commodity market. After Liberalization and Globalization in 1990, the
Government set up a committee (1993) to examine the role of futures trading.
Commodity exchange in India plays an important role where the prices of any commodity are not
fixed, in an organized way. Earlier only the buyer of produce and its seller in the market judged
upon the prices. Others never had a say.
Today, commodity exchanges are purely speculative in nature. Before discovering the price, they
reach to the producers, end-users, and even the retail investors, at a grassroots level. It brings a
price transparency and risk management in the vital market. Since 2002, the commodities future
market in India has experienced an unexpected boom in terms of modern exchanges, number of
commodities allowed for derivatives trading as well as the value of futures trading in
commodities, which crossed $ 1 trillion mark in 2006. Since 1952 till 2002 commodity datives

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market was virtually non- existent, except some negligible activities on OTC basis.
In India there are 25 recognized future exchanges, of which there are three national level multi-
commodity exchanges. After a gap of almost three decades, Government of India has allowed
forward transactions in commodities through Online Commodity Exchanges, a modification of
traditional business known as Adhat and Vayda Vyapar to facilitate better risk coverage and
delivery of commodities. The three exchanges are: National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
Limited (NCDEX) Mumbai, Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) Mumbai and
National Multi-Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCEIL) Ahmedabad.There are other
regional commodity exchanges situated in different parts of India.

Legal framework for regulating commodity futures in India


The commodity futures traded in commodity exchanges are regulated by the Government under
the Forward Contracts Regulations Act, 1952 and the Rules framed there under. The regulator for
the commodities trading is the Forward Markets Commission, situated at Mumbai, which comes
under the Ministry of Consumer Affairs Food and Public Distribution

Forward Markets Commission (FMC)


It is statutory institution set up in 1953 under Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952.
Commission consists of minimum two and maximum four members appointed by Central Govt.
Out of these members there is one nominated chairman. All the exchanges have been set up under
overall control of Forward Market Commission (FMC) of Government of India.

National Commodities & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX)


National Commodities & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) promoted by ICICI Bank
Limited (ICICI Bank), Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), National Bank of Agriculture
and Rural Development (NABARD) and National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSC).
Punjab National Bank (PNB), Credit Ratting Information Service of India Limited (CRISIL),
Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited (IFFCO), Canara Bank and Goldman Sachs by
subscribing to the equity shares have joined the promoters as a share holder of exchange. NCDEX
is the only Commodity Exchange in the country promoted by national level institutions.
NCDEX is a public limited company incorporated on 23 April 2003. NCDEX is a national level
technology driven on line Commodity Exchange with an independent Board of Directors and
professionals not having any vested interest in Commodity Markets.

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It is committed to provide a world class commodity exchange platform for market participants to
trade in a wide spectrum of commodity derivatives driven by best global practices,
professionalism and transparency.

NCDEX is located in Mumbai and offers facilities to its members in more than 550 centers
through out India. NCDEX currently facilitates trading of 57 commodities.
Commodities Traded at NCDEX
 Bullion - Gold KG, Silver, Brent
 Minerals - Electrolytic Copper Cathode, Aluminum Ingot, Nickel
Cathode, Zinc Metal Ingot, Mild steel Ingots
 Oil and Oil seeds - Cotton seed, Oil cake, Crude Palm Oil, Groundnut (in shell),
Groundnut expeller Oil, Cotton, Mentha oil, RBD Pamolein,
Refined soya oil, Rape seeds, Mustard seeds, Caster seed, Yellow
soybean.
 Pulses - Urad, Yellow peas, Chana, Tur, Masoor,

 Grain - Wheat, Indian Pusa Basmati Rice, Indian parboiled Rice,


Indian raw Rice (ParmalPR-106), Barley, Yellow red maize
 Spices - Jeera, Turmeric, Pepper
 Plantation - Cashew, Coffee Arabica, Coffee Robusta
 Fibers and other - Guar Gum, Guar seeds, Jute sacking bags, Indian 28 mm cotton,
Indian 31mm cotton, Lemon, Grain Bold, Medium Staple, Mulberry, Green Cottons Potato,
Raw Jute,Mulberry raw Silk, V-797 Kapas, Sugar, Chilli LCA334
 Energy - Crude Oil, Furnace oil.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX)


Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) is an independent and de-metalized
exchange with permanent reorganization from Government of India, having Head Quarter in
Mumbai. Key share holders of MCX are Financial Technologies (India) Limited, State Bank of
India, Union Bank of India, Corporation Bank of India, Bank of India and Canara Bank. MCX
facilitates online trading, clearing and settlement operations for commodity futures market across
the country.

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MCX started of trade in Nov 2003 and has built strategic alliance with Bombay Bullion
Association, Bombay Metal Exchange, Solvent Extractors Association of India, pulses Importers
Association and Shetkari Sanghatana. MCX deals wit about 100 commodities.
Commodities Traded at MCX
 Bullion - Gold, Silver, Silver Coins,
 Minerals - Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, Iron/steel, Tin, Zinc, Lead
 Oil and Oil seeds - Castor oil/castor seeds, Crude Palm oil/ RBD Pamolein, Groundnut oil,
Mustard/ Rapeseed oil, Soy seeds/Soy meal/Refined Soy Oil, Coconut Oil Cake, Copra,
Sunflower oil, Sunflower Oil cake, Tamarind seed oil,
 Pulses - Chana, Masur, Tur, Urad, Yellow peas
 Grains - Rice/ Basmati Rice, Wheat, Maize, Bajara, Barley,
 Spices - Pepper, Red Chili, Jeera, Cardamom, Cinnamon, Clove,
 Ginger,
 Plantation - Cashew Kernel, Rubber, Areca nut, Betel nuts, Coconut,
 Coffee,
 Fiber and others - Kapas, Kapas Khalli, Cotton (long staple, medium staple,
 short staple), Cotton Cloth, Cotton Yarn, Gaur seed and Guargum, Gur and Sugar,
Khandsari, Mentha Oil, Potato, Art Silk Yarn, Chara or Berseem, Raw Jute, Jute Goods, Jute
Sacking,
 Petrochemicals - High Density Polyethylene (HDPE), Polypropylene (PP), Poly
 Vinyl Chloride (PVC)
 Energy - Brent Crude Oil, Crude Oil, Furnace Oil, Middle East Sour Crude Oil, Natural
Gas

National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCEIL)


National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (NMCEIL) is the first de-mutualised
Electronic Multi Commodity Exchange in India. On 25th July 2001 it was granted approval by
Government to organize trading in edible oil complex. It is being supported by Central
warehousing Corporation Limited, Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board and Neptune
Overseas Limited. It got reorganization in Oct 2002. NMCEIL Head Quarter is at Ahmedabad.

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STRUCTURE OF COMMODITY MARKET

Ministry of consumer
affairs

Forwards market commission

Commodity Exchange

Regional stock
National stock exchange
exchange

NCD
EX MCX NMCE NBOT 20 other
regional

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GOLD
Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (Latin aurum, “shining dawn”) and an atomic
number of 79. It has been a highly sought –after precious metal for coinage, jewelry, in rocks, in
veins and in alluvial deposits. Gold is dense, soft, shiny and the most malleable and ductile pure
metal known. Pure gold has a bright yellow color and luster traditionally considered attractive,
which it maintains without oxidizing in air or water. Gold is one of the coinage metal and has
served as a symbol of wealth and a store of value throughout history. Gold standards have provided
a basis for monetary policies. It also has been linked to a variety of symbolisms and ideologies.

A total of 158,000 tones (=8,333.33’ cubic meters) of gold have been mined in human history, as
of 2009. Modern industrial uses include dentistry and electronics, where gold has traditionally
found use because of its good resistance to oxidative corrosion and excellent quality as conductor
of electricity.

For thousands of years gold served individuals as the most common medium of exchange. People
began experimenting with convertible paper currencies backed by gold in the 1700 and 1800s. The
international system of central bank managed gold-backed currencies that developed was called the
gold standard. The “shackles” placed on central banks by the necessity of ensuring gold
convertibility prevented them form issuing excess paper money to pay for government expenses,
thereby causing inflation.

The gold standard was dismantled and the shackles removed on the eve of World War I when most
central banks removed gold convertibility, ostensibly to make it easier for them to finance war
spending. After this, the world would experience some of the greatest inflations in history,

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including that Germany in the early 1920s the hardships experienced in the Great Depression and
World War II kept the gold standard from being properly reconstructed. It was only after WWII
that the world’s nations attempted to reconnect the international monetary system to gold. In the
resulting Breton Woods system that developed, all currencies were fixed in price to the United
States dollar, while the dollar itself was convertible by the world’s central banks into 0.028 ounces
of gold ( 1 ounce was worth $35). The dollar had moved to the centre of the world’s monetary
system, challenging gold.

This shows the gradual unraveling of both the Breton Woods system and gold’s $35 fixed price,
the end of dollar convertibility god, the elimination of gold as a monetary asset, and the emergence
of today’s system of freely floating competing currencies. Even though the dollar is no longer
linked to gold, it has retained its position as the world’s pre-eminent medium of exchange. Till
today 10 times more silver has been mined when compared to gold. On Ground availability pf
Gold is five times more than that of silver.

History of Gold

A child finds a shiny rock in a creek, thousands of years ago, and the human race is introduced to
gold for the first time.

Gold was first discovered as shining, yellow nuggets. "Gold is where you find it," so the saying
goes, and gold was first discovered in its natural state, in streams all over the world. No doubt it
was the first metal known to early hominids.

Gold became a part of every human culture. Its brilliance, natural


beauty, and luster, and its great malleability and resistance to tarnish
made it enjoyable to work and play with.

Because gold is dispersed widely throughout the geologic world, its


discovery occurred to many different groups in many different

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locales. And nearly everyone who found it was impressed with it, and so was the developing
culture in which they lived

Gold was the first metal widely known to our species. When thinking about the historical progress
of technology, we consider the development of iron and copper-working as the greatest
contributions to our species' economic and cultural progress - but gold came first.

As far back as 3100 B.C., we have evidence of a gold/silver value ratio in the code of Menes, the
founder of the first Egyptian dynasty. In this code it is stated that "one part of gold is equal to two
and one half parts of silver in value." This is our earliest of a value relationship between gold and
silver.

In ancient Egypt, around the time of Seti I (1320 B.C.), we find the creation of the first gold
treasure map now known to us. Today, in the Turin Museum is a papyrus and fragments known as
the "Carte des mines d'or." It pictures gold mines, miners' quarters, road leading to the mines and
gold-bearing mountains, and so on.

Where is that gold mine located? Well, you know how it is with treasure maps - there's always
something a little vague about them, to throw you off the trail.

Modern thought is that it portrays the Wadi Fawakhir region in which the El Sid gold mine is
located, but the matter is far from settled. Jason and the Argonauts sought the Golden Fleece
around 1200 B.C.

That Greek myth makes more sense when you realize that the fleece that it refers to is the sheep's
fleece used in the recovery of fine placer gold.
Early miners would use water power to propel gold-bearing sand over the hide of a sheep, which
would trap the tiny, but heavy, flakes of gold. When the fleece had absorbed all it could hold, this
'golden fleece' was hung up to dry, and when dry would be beaten gently so that the gold would
fall off and be recovered.

This primitive form of hydraulic mining began thousands of years ago, and was still being used by
some miners as recently as the California gold rush of 1849.

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The first use of gold as money occurred around 700 B.C., when Lydian merchants produced the

first coins. These were simply stamped lumps of a 63% gold and 27% silver mixture known as

'electrum.' This standardized unit of value no doubt helped Lydian traders in their wide-ranging

successes, for by the time of Croesus of Mermnadae, the last King of Lydia (570 -546 B.C.), Lydia

had amassed a huge hoard of gold. Today, we still speak of the ultra-wealthy as being 'rich as

Croesus.'

A monetary standard made the world economy possible. The concept of money, (i.e., gold and

silver in standard weight and fineness coins) allowed the World's economies to expand and

prosper. During the Classic period of Greek and Roman rule in the western world, gold and silver

both flowed to India for spices, and to China for silk. At the height of the Empire (A.D. 98-160),

Roman gold and silver coins reigned from Britain to North Africa and Egypt.

Money had been invented. Its name was gold.

Uses of Gold

 Gold is an investment.

Since 2001, we have been in the early stage of a gold bull market. A young bull market is the
investment opportunity of a lifetime. This asset class (precious metals) should vastly outperform

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traditional asset classes — like stocks, bonds, real estate - for the next 5-10 years. All signs point to
a continued upswing in gold prices. The reality is, gold responds well to currency debasement and
monetary uncertainty.

 Gold's Usefulness as safe haven.


The geo-political and world economic structure is currently undergoing major change-some
have even called the situation an "upheaval." This means that the investment outlook,
particularly for certain parts of the world, is more unpredictable than usual. Under these
circumstances, it is logical to conclude that certain investment portfolios should include
real (non-paper) assets such as commodities for protection against a potential decline in the
paper markets.

 Gold's Usefulness as an Asset Diversifier


Most portfolios are invested primarily in traditional financial assets such as stocks, bonds
and mutual funds. Adding gold to a portfolio introduces an entirely different asset; a
tangible or real asset, thus increasing the portfolio's degree of diversification. The purpose
of diversification is to protect the total portfolio against fluctuations in the value of any one
asset or type of asset. Gold does exactly that.

 The reason is basic


The economic forces which determine the price of gold are different from, and in many cases
opposed to, the forces which determine the prices of most financial assets. The price of an equity
depends on the earnings and growth potential of the company it represents. Likewise, the price of
a bond depends on its safety, its yield, and the yields of competing fixed income investments.

 Gold is money

Gold is still the most important money in the world. Gold has been the ultimate store of value and
currency for 4,000 years, outlasting all paper currency and fiat money. Stocks and bonds expire;
governments come and go; but gold is forever. Gold has intrinsic value as a rare asset. Gold is

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

precious. And what keeps it precious is that the total amount of gold in the world is a small
quantity.

 Gold is insurance.

Gold has always acted as portfolio insurance - protecting you against potential disaster of your
financial assets. Gold is a hedge because it is negatively correlated to traditional financial assets. In
other words, when paper assets go up - like, stocks and bonds — gold goes down. And when paper
assets go down, gold goes up. History has shown that a gold-hedged portfolio during uncertain
financial and political times provides the ultimate insurance against potential economic calamity.

SILVER

Silver is a metallic chemical element with the chemical symbol Ag (Latin: argentums, from the
Indo European root * arg-for “white” or “shining”) and atomic number 47. a soft, white, lustrous
transition metal, it has the highest electrical conductivity of any element and the highest thermal
conductivity of any metal. The metal occurs naturally in its pure, free from native silver, as an
alloy with gold and other metals, and in minerals such as argentite and chlorargyrite. Most silver is
produced as a by-product of copper, gold, lead, and zinc refining.

Silver has long been valued as precious metal, and it is used to make ornaments, jewelry, high-
value tableware, utensils, and currency coins. Today, silver metal is also used in electrical contacts
and conductor, in mirrors and in catalysis of chemical reactions. Its compounds are used in
photographic film and dilute silver nitrate solutions and other silver compounds are used as
disinfectants and micro biocides. While many medical antimicrobial uses of silver have been
supplanted by antibiotics, further research into clinical potential continues.

Many well known uses of silver involve its precious metal properties including currency,
decorative items and mirrors. The contrast between the appearance of its bright white color in
contrast with other media makes it very useful to the visual art. It has also long been used to confer

18
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

high monetary value as objects (such as silver coins and investment bars) or make objects symbolic
of high social or political rank.

Silver, in the form of electrum (a gold-silver alloy), was coined to produce money in around
700BC by the Lydians. Later, silver was refined and coined in its pure form. Many nations used
silver as the basic unit of monetary value. In the modern world, silver bullion has the ISO currency
code XAG. The name of the United Kingdom monetary unit “pound” (£) reflects the fact that it
originally represented the value of one troy pound of sterling silver. In the 1800s, many nations,
such as the United States and Great Britain, switched from silver to a gold standard of monetary
value, then in the 20th century to fiat currency.

History of silver

Silver has attracted man’s fascination for many thousands of years. Ancient civilizations found
silver deposits plentiful on or near the earth’s surface. Relics of these civilizations, include jewelry,
religious artifacts, and food vessels formed from the durable, malleable metal. This metal took on
near mystical qualities in marking important historical milestones throughout the ages, and served
as a medium of exchange. The Mesopotamian merchants were doing just that as early as 700 BC.

In 1792, silver assumed a key role in the United States monetary system when Congress based the
currency on the silver dollar, and its fixed relationship to gold. Silver was used for the nation’s
coinage until its use was discontinued in 1965. The dawn of the 20th century marked an important
economic function for silver, that of an industrial raw material.

Today, silver is sought as a valuable and practical industrial commodity, as well as an appealing
investment precious metal. Many countries now issue silver bullion coins, among them the Unites
States, Canada and Mexico. Private issue silver bullion is also available from select private mints.

Although silver is relatively scarce, it is the most plentiful and least expensive of the precious
metals. The largest silver producing countries are Mexico, Peru, the United States, Australia and

19
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Chile. Sources of silver include; silver mined directly, silver mined as a by-product of gold,
copper, lead and zinc mining, and silver extracted from recycled materials, primarily used
photographic materials. Today, silver bullion stocks make up a significant component of silver
supply.

The American Eagle Bullion program was launched in 1986 with the sale of gold and silver bullion
coins. Platinum was added to the American Eagle Bullion family in 1997. A bullion coin is a coin
that is valued by its weight in a specific precious metal.

Silver Uses

Demand for silver is built on three main pillars: industrial and decorative uses, photography, and
jewelry & silverware. Together, these three categories represent more than 95 percent of annual
silver consumption. In 2007, 455.5 million ounces of silver were used for industrial applications,
while over 128 million ounces of silver were committed to the photographic sector, 163.4 million
ounces were consumed in the jewelry market, and 58.8 million ounces were used in the silverware
market.

Why is this indispensable metal in such demand? The reasons are simple. Silver has a number of
unique properties including its strength, malleability and ductility, its electrical and thermal
conductivity, its sensitivity to and high reflectance of light and the ability to endure extreme
temperature ranges. Silver’s unique properties restrict its substitution in most applications. Choose
from the following list to learn more about some of the various applications of silver:

 Traditional

o Coinage o Photography

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

o Silver Jewelry. o Silverware and


Table Settings

 Industrial

o Batteries o Catalysts

o Bearings o Electronics

o Brazing and
Soldering

 Emerging

o Medical o Solar Energy


Applications
o Water Purification
o Mirrors & Coatings

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Research in common parlance refers to a search for knowledge. In fact research is


an art of scientific investigation. The Advanced Learner’s Dictionary of current
English lays down the meaning of research as “a careful investigation or inquiry
especially through search for new facts in any branch of knowledge”.

For the preparation of the project report several method were used to collect data
and pertinent information. The data required for the studies were collected is
primary source. Detailed questionnaire were prepared for the different
departments covering as many variables as possible

21
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

DISSERTATION TITLE

“COMMODITY MARKET - PRICE DRIVERS OF GOLD AND


SILVER”

Statement of the problem

The commodity market is still new and growing in India and it has a bright scope
to develop, on that view this research study is taken.

The Research main intention is to know the various price drivers that determine
the price of commodity. The main problem in the commodity market is the
prediction of future price of commodity; especially prediction of price of global
metals (gold and silver) is very difficult. The future prediction will be made on the
basis of the past response of commodity market to various price drivers.
Especially this research on Gold and silver because these two commodities have
global market with high volatility. The price of gold and silver are highly affected
by the various factors happening in and around the world. In order to know
behavior of this to commodity to that factor, researcher referred past reacts of
commodity market.

Objective of the study

 To learn about the Indian commodity market.


 To study different price drivers affect the Gold and silver.
 To find out how price of Gold and silver fluctuate in Indian Commodity market

 To interpret about movement of future price of gold and silver in commodity


market.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 To derive the relation of these commodities with other financial instruments such
as money supply.

Research design
Research design is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted; it
constitutes the blueprint for the collection, measurement and analysis of data. It is
a plan for selecting of type of information used to answer the research question. It
is a framework for specifying the relationship among the different influencing
variables..

 Empirical research:-
This research is done by using the empirical research design to analyze the
performance and to study the impact of price drivers of gold and silver on
commodity market, by using all available data.

Sampling design

Sampling is simply the process of learning about the population on basis of a


sample. Thus, sampling technique instead of every unit of the universe. Only a part
of the universe is studied and conclusion is drawn on that basis for the entire
universe. A sample is subset of population units. The researcher adopted the
simple random sampling technique for the study.

Simple random sampling

Simple random sampling refers to that sampling technique in which each and
every unit of the population has an equal opportunity of being selected in the

23
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

sample. The researcher has adopted simple random sampling because population is
known.

Source of data

Data is the fact or an event. This data or information is needed for every research
work. The data can be classified into two types: that is

1) Primary data

2) Secondary data

Primary data

Data originally collected for an investigation are known as primary data. Such data
are originally in character and are generated in large number of survey conducted
by individual researcher on research bodies. For example data collected by the
researcher from the interviewing investor.

 Collecting the opinion of investor about commodity market situation

 Interviewing the Angel investment analyst.

Secondary data

Data which are actually collected for some earlier research work and are applicable
or usable in future research and which already have been passed through the
satisfied process.

 The secondary data for this study was collected from the relevant journals,
newspapers, and textbooks

 The main source of secondary data for this Project is Internet source like
MCX, NCDEX.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Tool used
The live trading of last one year record system which is used in angel broking,
and Bloomberg, SAP software which is used in the angel broking are used in this
research to collect required data.

Scope of the study


The scope of study shows the outer line or border of the research study.

 This study limited to only two commodities, i.e. Gold and Silver.

 This study is based on last one year performance of Gold and silver.

 This study relates to only Indian commodity market that is MCX, NCDX.

Limitation of study
The following are some of the limitations of the study:

1) The project work was required to be completed within a short period of time.

So time constraint was one of the main limitations of the study.

2) Most of the information’s are collected from secondary data, so researcher

can’t say it 100% applicable.

3) There is no particular format for the study.

4) Cost Constraint.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

INDUSTRY PROFILE

Indian markets have recently thrown open a new avenue for retail investors and
traders to participate in: commodity derivatives. For those who want to diversify
their portfolios beyond shares, bonds and real estate, commodities are the best
option. Till some months ago, this wouldn't have made sense. For retail investors
could have done very little to actually invest in commodities such as gold and
silver or oilseeds in the futures market. This was nearly impossible in
commodities except for gold and silver as there was practically no retail avenue
for punting in commodities. Whatever it may be , with the setting up of
three multi-commodity exchanges in the country, retail investors can now trade
in commodity futures without having any physical stocks

Commodities actually offer immense potential to become a separate asset class for
market-savvy investors, arbitrageurs and speculators. Retail investors, who claim
to understand the equity markets may find commodities an unfathomable market.
But commodities are easy to understand as far as fundamentals of demand and
supply are concerned. Retail investors should understand the risks and advantages
of trading in commodities futures before taking a leap. Historically, pricing in
commodities futures has been less volatile compared with equity and bonds, thus
providing an efficient portfolio diversification option.

Like any other market, the one for commodity futures plays a valuable role in
information pooling and risk sharing. The market mediates between buyers and
sellers of commodities, and facilitates decisions related to storage and
consumption of commodities. In the process, they make the underlying market
more liquid

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

The trading of commodities consists of direct physical trading and derivatives


trading. The commodities markets have seen an upturn in the volume of trading in
recent years. In the five year up to 2010, the value of global physical exports of
commodities increased by 17% while the notional value outstanding of commodity
OTC(over the counter) derivatives increased more than 500% and commodity
derivative trading on exchanges more than 200%.

The notional value outstanding of banks’ OTC commodities’ derivatives contacts


increased 27% in 2010 to $9.0 trillion. OTC trading accounts for the majority of
trading in gold and silver. Overall, precious metal accounted for 8% of OTC
commodities derivatives trading in 2010, down from their 55% share a decade
earlier as trading in energy derivatives rose.

Global physical and derivatives trading of commodities on exchanges increased


more than a third in 2010 to reach 1,684 million contacts. Agricultural contacts
trading grew by 32% in 2010, energy 29% and industrial metals by 30%. Precious
metals trading grew by 3% with higher volume in New York being partially offset
by declining volume in Tokyo. Over 40% of quarter in China. Trading on
exchanges in China and India has gained in importance in recent years due to their
emergence as significant commodities consumers and producers.

Present scenario

Today’s commodity market is a global market place not only for agricultural
products, but also currencies and financial instruments such as Treasury bonds and
securities futures. It’s a diverse marketplace of farmers, exporter, importers,
manufacturers and speculators. Modern technology has transformed commodities
into a global marketplace where a Kansas farmer can match a bid from a buyer in
Europe.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

The 2008 global boom in commodity prices- for everything from coal to corn –
was fueled by heated demand from the likes of China and India, plus unbridled
speculation in forward markets.

The bubble popped in the closing months of 2008 across the board. As a result,
farmers are expected to face a sharp drop in crop prices, after years of record
revenue. Other commodities, such as steel, are also expected to tumble due to
lower demand. This will be a rare positive for manufacturing industries, which will
experience a drop in some input costs, partly offsetting the decline in downstream
demand.

COMPANY PROFILE

History & development

“Angel Broking” is the retail broking arm of SSKI, an organization with more
than eight decades of trust & credibility in the stock market. It is India's leading
retail financial Services Company with We have over 250 share shops across 115
cities in India. While our size and strong balance sheet allow us to provide you
with varied products and services at very attractive prices, our over 750 Client
Relationship Managers are dedicated to serving your unique needs. Angel Broking
is lead by a highly regarded management team that has invested crores of rupees
into a world class Infrastructure that provides our clients with real-time service &
24/7 access to all information and products.

Our flagship Angel Broking Professional Network offers real-time prices,


detailed data and news, intelligent analytics, and electronic trading capabilities,

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

right at your fingertips. This powerful technology complemented by our


knowledgeable and customer focused Relationship Managers. We are creating a
world of Smart Investor. Angel Broking offers a full range of financial services
and products ranging from Equities to Derivatives enhance your wealth and hence,
achieve your financial goals. Angel Broking' Client Relationship Managers are
available to you to help with your financial planning and investment needs. To
provide the highest possible quality of service, Angel Broking provides full access
to all our products and services through multi-channels.

In a shot span of 22 years since inception, the Angel Group has emerged as one of
the top five retail stock broking houses in India, having membership of BSE, NSE
and the two leading Commodity Exchanges in the country i.e. NCDEX & MCX.
Angel Broking is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL.

General information

Angel Broking's tryst with excellence in customer relations began in 1987. Today,
Angel has emerged as one of the most respected Stock-Broking and Wealth
Management Companies in India. With its unique retail-focused stock trading
business model, Angel is committed to providing ‘Real Value for Money’ to all its
clients.

The group is promoted by Mr. Dinesh Thakkar, who started this business as a sub-broker
in 1987 with a team of 3. Today the angel group is managed by a team of 1937 direct
employees and has a nationwide network comprising of 21 Regional hubs, 124 branches
and 6810 sub brokers & business associates. Angel is 100% focused on retail stock
broking business unlike any other larger national broking house. The group currently
services more than 5.9 thousand retail clients.

Angel Booking’s meeting with excellence in customer relations began more than 20 years
ago. Angel Group has emerged as one of the top 3 retail broking houses in India and
incorporated in 1987.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

It has memberships on BSE, NSE and the leading commodity exchanges in India NCDEX
& MCX. Angel is also registered as a depository participant with CDSL.

Rashmi Investments

It is a channel partner of Angel broking, it was started in the year 2009 (Oct 1st) as
a one men business, by three young and energetic persons but business was
register under the name of Ajith sing. Initially it has 10 clients with trading worth
of Rs 10 lakhs. but today Rashmi is grown as a part of angel with 510 clients with
the turnover of Rs 7 crores. The success of any business depend on the key persons
of the organization, here also the four people day and night work for the
development of Rashmi. They are

Mr Ajith sing: - Proprietor and authorized sub broker of Angel

Mr vivek: - Business development officer

Mr Ram: - commodity market analyst and specialist in future andoption

Miss Sunitha: - customer relationship officer

Today Rashmi investment has sufficient clients even though it focuses on


customer acquisition and building the good relationship with the present clients.
Rashmi is not preparing any trading tips for its client, but it circulates the tips to its
customer which is given by angel. One of the other strategy adopted by Rashmi is
giving education about the equity and commodity market to its customer. Every
week end it call a meeting with its clients and share all the new things which is
happening in market.

The Rashmi invest is a growing firm, now it work with Angel as a partner but it has its
own vision and mission. I hope it will reach its goal as soon as because all employees in
the organization work in coordinated manner and Rashmi is able to create it own name
in their field within a short span of time.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Angel’s presence

 Nation- wide network of 21 regional hubs


 Presence 124 cities
 6800 + sub brokers & business associates
 5.9 lakh + clients

Angel group companies

Angel Broking Ltd. Member on the BSE and Depository Participant with CDSL

Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd. Membership on the NSE Cash and Futures & Options Segment

Angel Commodities Broking Ltd. Member on the NCDEX & MCX

Angel Securities Ltd. Member on the BSE

ANGEL’S BUSINESS

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

MANAGEMENT TEAM
SR. NO Name Designation & Department

1 Mr. Dinesh Thakkar Founder Chairman & Managing Director

2 Mr. Lalit Thakkar Director – Research

3 Mr. Amit Majumdar Executive Director – Strategy and Finance

4 Mr. Rajiv Phadke Executive Director – HR & Corp

5 Mr. Vinay Agrawal Executive Director – Equity Broking

6 Mr. Nikhil Daxini Executive Director - Sales and Marketing

7 Executive Director - Distribution & Wealth


Mr. Hitungshu Debnath
Management

8 Mr. Mudit Kulshreshtha Executive Director – Operations

MILESTONES

October, 2009 ‘Major Volume Driver’ Award by BSE for 2008-09

32
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

May, 2009 Wins Award for ‘Broking House with Largest Distribution Network’
& ‘Best Retail Broking House’

August, 2008 Crossed 500000 trading accounts

November, 2007 ‘Major Volume Driver’ for 2007

December, 2006 Created 2500 business associates

September, 2006 Launched Mutual Fund and IPO business

July, 2006 Launched the PMS function

October, 2006 ‘Major Volume Driver’ award for 2006

October, 2005 ‘Major Volume Driver’ award for 2005

September, 2004 Launched Online Trading Platform

April, 2004 Initiated Commodities Broking division

April, 2003 First published research report

November, 2002 Angel’s first investor seminar

March, 2002 Developed web-enabled back office software

November, 1998 Angel Capital and Debt Market Ltd. Incorporated

December, 1997 Angel Broking Ltd. Incorporated

ANGEL’S LOGO, VISION

33
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

ANGEL’S ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE

34
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Products of angel broking

35
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Online- trading

Specially designed for the net know-how traders and investors who prefer operating from
their home or office through the internet. The investor can access state of the art
technology via trading on BSE, NSE, F & O, MCX and NCDEX through 3 unique e-
trading softwares.

 Features of Online trading at Angel


 Multiple exchange on a single screen
 Investor use the latest technology to generate efficient uptime and greater stability to
gain high speed.
 Competitive brokerage rates
 Optimum margins
 Online fund transfer
 Personalized service
 Off line services
 Technology.
 Back office infrastructure
 E – contract notes cum bills

Commodities

36
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

A commodity is a basic good representing a monetary value. Commodities are most often
used as inputs in the production of other goods or services. With the advent of new online
exchange, commodities can now be traded in futures markets. When they are traded on an
exchange, Commodities must also meet specified minimum standards known as basic
grade.

 Types of Commodities
 Precious Metals : Gold and Silver
 Base Metals : Copper, Zinc , Steel and Aluminum
 Energy : Crude Oil, Brent Crude and Natural Gas
 Pulses : Chana , Urad and Tur
 Spices : Black Pepper, Jeera, Turmeric , Red Chili
 Others : Guar Complex, Soy Complex, Wheat and Sugar

 Benefits at Angel
 Three different online products tailored for traders & investors.
 Single Screen customized market-watch for MCX / NCDEX with BSE / NSE.
 Streaming Quotes and real time Rates. Intra-day trading calls.
 Research on 25 Agro Commodities, Precious and Base Metals, Energy products
and Polymers.
 An array of daily, weekly and special research reports.
 Highly skilled analysts with professional industry experience.
 Active relationship management desk.
 Seminars, workshops and investment camps for investors

 commodities services
 Agro Tech Speak : Mainly gives the investors insight into and a forecast for agro
commodities viz. pulses (urad, channa etc); reports on oil complex (soybeans castor etc.)
along with spices with reports on kapas guar seed.
 Call Evaluation : A report designed for evaluating the calls given by the angel
research team where the reports are classified in 3 broad categories viz. achieved, triumph,
not achieved along with the trade recommendations.
 Commodities Tech Speak : This report mainly equips the investors dealing in
MCX segment in commodities like gold, silver, crude oil, copper etc with the market
insight and expert recommendation on the trading strategies

37
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 Angel commodity advantages


 Top Quality Research
 Professionally qualified analysts with rich industry experience
 Research on 25 agro commodities, precious metals, base metals, energy
products and polymers
 E-Broking
 Single screen customized market watch for MCX / NCDEX with BSE / NSE
 Streaming quotes and intraday calls
 DP Facilities in Commodities Trading on CDSL
 24x7 Online Back-office
 Efficient Risk Management
 Competitive Brokerage Rates

 Depositary participant services

Angel Broking Ltd. is a DP services provider though CDSL. They offer depository
services to create a seamless transaction platform to execute trades through Angel group
of companies and settle these transactions through Angel Depository services.

 Portfolio management services

Successful investing in Capital Markets demands ever more time and expertise.
Investment Management is an art and a science in itself. Portfolio Management Services
(PMS) is one such service that is fast gaining eminence as an investment avenue of choice

38
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

for High Net worth Investors (HNI). PMS is a sophisticated investment vehicle that offers
a range of specialized investment strategies to capitalize on opportunities in

the market. The Portfolio Management Service combined with competent fund
management, dedicated research and technology, ensures a rewarding experience for its
clients.

Angel PMS brings with it years of experience, expertise, research and the backing of
India's leading stock broking house. At Angel, experienced portfolio management is the
difference. It will advise you on a suitable product based on factors such as your
investment horizon, return expectations and risk tolerance.

 Investment Advisory Services

To derive optimum returns from equity as an asset class requires professional guidance
and advice. Professional assistance will always be beneficial in wealth creation.
Investment decisions without expert advice would be like treating ailment without the help
of a doctor.

 DEPOSITARY PARTICIPANT SERVICES

Angel Broking Ltd. is a DP services provider though CDSL. They offer depository
services to create a seamless transaction platform to execute trades through Angel group
of companies and settle these transactions through Angel Depository services.

Fundamental research services


 The Sunday Weekly Report
This weekly report is the ace of all reports. It offers a comprehensive market
overview and likely trends in the week ahead. It also presents few top picks based
on an in-depth analysis of technical and fundamental factors. It gives short term

39
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

and long term outlook on these scrip’s, their price targets and trading strategies.
Another unique feature of this report is that it provides an updated view of about
70 prominent stocks on an ongoing basis.

 The Industry Watch


This report provides an in-depth analysis of specific industries which are likely to
outperform others in the economy. It analyzes their strengths and weaknesses and
ascertains their future outlook. The final view is arrived at after thorough
interaction with industry experts. Also comparative performances of various
companies in the sector are evaluated and top picks are recommended.

 Stock Analysis :
Angel’s stock research has performed very well over the past few years and the
Angel Model Portfolio has consistently outperformed the benchmark indices. The
fundamentals of select scrip are thoroughly analyzed and an actionable advice is
provided along with investment rationale for each scrip.

 Flash News :
Key developments and significant news announcements that are likely to have an
impact on markets / scrip are flashed live on trading terminals. Flash news keeps
the market participants updated on an online basis and helps them to reshuffle on
their holdings.

 Technical research service :


 Nifty Tracker :
Nifty Futures is the most traded instrument with highest volumes in F & O and
excellent liquidity. The team tracks the Nifty Future and generates calls based
on unique trading system which is a result of their focused research over the
past few years. The objective is to generate positive returns for traders who are
looking for a high risk / high reward product.

 Online Chart :
An online forum to help clients, specifically day trader is judging the directions of
the market and stocks which are in the limelight.

40
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 Intraday Calls :
For day traders, Angel provides intra-day calls with entry, exit and stop loss levels
during market hours. These calls are flashed on their terminals. Their analysts
continuously track the calls and provide recommendations according to the market
movements.

 Position Calls :
Angel’s “Position Trading Calls” are based on thorough analysis of the price
movement in select scrip’s. These calls are for a 10-15 day time span with stop
loss and target levels. These calls are flashed on their terminals during market
hours.

 Derivative Strategies :
Their analysts take view on the Nifty and select stocks based on the derivatives
data and technical tools. Suitable “Derivative Strategies” are devised, which are
flashed on their terminals and published in their reports.

 Futures Calls :
A customized product for HNIs to help them trade with leveraged position;
wherein clients are advised on the stocks with entry, exit and stop loss level for
short term benefits. Over and above this, financial status of the calls is monitored
at all times.

SWOT Analysis of Angel Broking

A SWOT analysis focuses on the internal and external environments, examining


strengths and weaknesses in the internal environment and opportunities and threats
in the external environment.

STRENGTH WEAKNESS

 Service

 Distribution network  Competition from Banks

 Marketing  Lack of specialist in commodity


OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
market
 Products
 Ever increasing market  New competitors

 Improving technology  Technology based business

 Unfulfilled needs of customers.  Heavy market volatility


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 Education level
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Competitive analysis

Follower:

- The follower is just blindly following the other player, which is leader and
challenges.

- The players like 5 paisa, Motilal Oswal, HDFC Securities, Kotakstreet are the
followers.

Leader:

- ICICIdirect.com is a leader in the online account which is having 1,24,000


account in the country.

- While in offline account Sharekhan is leading with 64,000 offline accounts.

Challenger:

- Sharekhan, Kotakstreet and Indiabulls come under this head.

- Sharekhan challenges competitors by providing quality services and research


based advice.

- Indiabulls is also challenging with low brokerage rates and class one services.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

Success of any research is based on the analysis part. It shows the core theme of
research and how it is done; any research is not completed without clear analysis
and interpretation. Convincing and understanding capacity of a research is laid in
this part. This research analyze the how gold and silver prices are fluctuate and
what make them to change, through interpretation researcher gives a tips to
overcome and predict future changes in gold and silver price

Gold performance during 2010

Gold prices are currently trading near their all time highs on global markets as
concern over t he ability of several European countries to finance their debt
burdens destabilized the euro and sharpened volatility across financial markets,
fuelling an investor flight into the perceived safe-haven asset. Gold’s gains were
mainly imparted by weak dollar and uncertain economic conditions which
prevailed during the 2010. Silver which is also known as poor man’s gold is also
trading near its 30 year high on international bourses tracking sharp moves in gold
and base metal price as it is also used has an industrial metal. Weaker dollar
spread billions alternative investment demand while concerns of faltering

43
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

economic recovery strengthened metals’ safe haven appeal. A part from the
lowering dollar index, strong investment demand was another major reason which
took the gold price to new highs in 2010. Japan and USA continued to make gold
an attractive investment. In particular, statements by federal reserve officials and
discussion in previous policy meetings regarding their willingness to provide a
more accommodative policy to spur economic growth and relating the labor
market have put pressure on the US dollar, which increased long term inflation
expectations and, consequently, due to its role has a hedging vehicle, pushed up
the price of gold. Secondly officials sector activity continued to be supportive of
the gold market has sales by European central banks remind negligible while in
several emerging markets, including Russia, Bangladesh and Thailand , central
bank continued to increase their gold reserves . Now has we are moving towards
2011, it would not be an easy task for us forecast or predicting the price of gold in
coming period . The entire economy is similar to a living breathing organism with
many complex parts. Isolating any one aspect is done with the risk of being
inaccurate. So the price of gold is a difficult number to determine in the overall
economic outlook. There is no definitive answer to where the price of gold will be
in 2011 are prices have

Already surged for ten consecutive years. But if we look at the overall global
scenario then we think that the current scenario is still very positive for bullions to
mark an eleventh year of gains in 2011 on international bourses and new highs on
local platform as investors seek refuge from an uncertain global economic outlook
and non reliability on paper currency. On global front, China is now the world’s
biggest producer of the gold and consumes all the gold its mines can dig up.
China’s miners produced 277.017 metric tones of gold so far in 2010, up to 8.8%
from the same period in 2009. In fact china imported 209.7 metric tonnes of gold
in the first 10 months of 2010 which is up fivefold compared with the same period
of 2009. Surging demand from china is already changing the seasonal pattern in
the gold price pursuing the annual gold price “peak” from November to February,
has gold buying centre around china’s New Year.

Data about last year Performance:-

44
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

LIFE TIME LIFE TIME


HIGH LOW
COMMODITY EXCHANGE 2010 HIGH 2010 LOW

COMEX 1431.10 252.50 1431.10 1045.20

GOLD 15950.00

MCX 20924.00 5600.00 20924.00

The Present Gold performance (2011):-

The current performance of gold is very difficult to predict because it shows very
volatility in the market. from last few day gold price was increased continuously
due to food inflation and world crisis.

Last Month Performance Chart of Gold (Feb-march):- The present


performance of gold is analyzed by the performance of gold contract which is
trading in the Indian commodity market,

45
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Analysis of Market moving factors of gold:-


The market movement of gold is affected by enormous factors, but in the last
month the price of gold increased from 20,150 to 21,750 “(Per 10 gm) this price

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th April 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 4th June 2011

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th August 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 5th October 2011

volatility is not equal to all four contract but by see the chart we can say all most

46
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

all contract is moved in the same manner. The some of assumed price drivers are
as follows.

 Indian gold prices are highly correlated with international prices. However,
the fluctuation in the INR-US Dollar impact domestic gold prices and have
to be closely followed.

 Last week when Jean-Claude Trichet announced a 0.25 pt raise in Key


interest rates, Gold and Silver prices dipped as the European Central Bank
Chief emphasized his inflation-fighting focus. But the 2 Key inflation
hedges were just temporarily tarnished by the tough talk as Friday Gold
rose to a new all-time high at Rs 22000.

 Players have been joining in, and holdings of Gold to back exchange-
traded funds (ETFs), the popular way for retail investors to participate, rose
19.9 tons Thursday, the biggest single inflow since late January.

 After a week January, prices of the precious metals rose in February and
march when the unrest that toppled governments in Tunisia and then Egypt
sent players to havens.

 Last month the Utah State Legislature passed a bill accepting US Gold and
Silver coins as legal tender and other States in the USA are considering
similar legislation in a direct rebuke to the Federal Reserve and its ultra-
loose monetary policy.

 The Euro hit a 14-month high of 1.4443 vs. the USD Friday. That makes
gold market moves up.

 Inflationary impact of soaring Crude Oil and food prices, which have
pushed real US interest rates, nominal rates minus inflation, to negative
levels.

 Negative real rates are not just a US issue; the same is true in China, where
demand for Bullion is climbing too.

47
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 The cost of “Carry” (the difference between interest on deposits and non-
interest bearing Gold) is Zero now and that drives money to be invested in
assets.

 Supply –demand is a major influencer, amid rising global investor demand


and almost stable supplies.

 Shifts in official gold reserves, reports of sales/purchases by central banks


act as major price influencing factors, whenever such reports surface.

 There is uncertainty in the economy - nobody really has a clear picture


about what will happen in the next 12 months. As a result, people tend to
invest in something defensive (a good hold) and that has traditionally been
gold.

 The Currency exchange rate is one of the factors determining the gold
price. If currency of different country changes in a positive correlation the
price of gold will be same. If it is in negative correlation the gold price is
differ from country to country. Mainly it will adversely affect to
developing and under developed country gold price

Interpretation:

The price of gold is moving upward from last few months the slight volatility
in the gold price because of above all factors, some of the factors which related
to price drives of gold will affect after some time and some of them shown
immediate influence on gold market, So the bullion market movement is not
give exact cause to its volatility. Nearly Rs 500 was gone up in the yellow
metal market and also by seeing chart of present trading contract we can
predict the market was in bullish side rather than bearish.

48
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

A Year performance of present gold trading contract:

The gold performance is better as compare to 2010, The last year Average price is
Rs19640 but it was moved to 21000 Rs during 2011. The yearly performance of
gold is analyzed by taking consideration of present contract trading in the Bullion
market.

-Contract Expiry Date:- 5th April2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 4th June2011

49
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th Agust2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 5th October 2011

Analysis of present trading contract yearly movement:-

The yearly movement of gold is influenced by various factors mainly core price
drivers of Gold, like inflation, interest rate, the dollar value or other. This core
price driver largely changes during 12 month gap period and also the number of
factors effecting on commodity market is varies. Some of important gold market
moving factors are as follows.

 Tightening of gold supply

Gold mining is decreasing and the demand for gold is increasing. Gold supply has
decreased by almost 40 per cent as the cost of mining, legal formalities and
geographical problems have increased which has led to a fall in gold mining.
Economics have taught us that lesser the supply, greater the demand and in turn
greater the increase in price.

 Interest rates

Gold has always been considered a good hedge against inflation. Rising inflation
rates typically appreciates gold prices. It has an inverse relationship with interest
rates. As gold is pegged to the US dollar, US interest rates affect gold prices.
Whenever interest rates fall, gold prices increase. Lowering interest rates increases

50
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

gold prices as gold becomes a better investment option vis-a-vis debt products that
earn lower interest. Gold loses its shine in a rising interest rate scenario.

 Geo-political concerns

Whenever there is geo-political strife, investors around the world rush to prevent
erosion of their investments and gold as a safe haven attracts one and all. For
example after terror strike in the United States the demand for gold had increased.
With the recent events like tension between India-Pakistan, Israeli strikes over
Gaza, the ongoing war in Iraq, the tension between US and Iran coupled with
recession have investors scrambling for gold.

 Central bank demand

With the dollar losing its value, central banks of most of the developed countries
have started to increase their share of gold. This explains the increasing market
demand for gold.

 Weakness in financial markets

General rule of thumb in the market is that gold is always attractive when all other
investments are unattractive. Why is this? As gold is negatively co-related to
stocks, bonds, and real estate, gold is considered to be a safe haven and hence
during any crises, investors would like to sell off what they would term as risky
investments and be invest the funds in gold.

 Huge purchasing habit by china

China is adding to their reserve of gold. It has been well known that China is
trying increase the amount of gold that they hold so for that reason alone the price
of gold has gone up. They are pushing for their citizens to invest or buy more gold
and they need to be sure that they have an excess amount of gold in stock to meet

51
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

their demands. They hold the title for the most populated area so their demand for
gold is much higher than any other area.

 Positive response to Portugal PM words:-

The gold price reacted positively to the Portuguese auction, rising to its new record
high. Later in the day, Portugal’s Prime Minister, Jose Socrates, announced that
the nation requested financial assistance from the European Union. The price of
gold again responded favorably, rebounding from its intra-day low.

Interpretation:-

In the mid 2010 the price of gold is Rs 18,000 but at the end of 2010 the market
crosses Rs 21,000. The price movements of different trading contract are not
moved in the same manner mainly because of different maturity period. Each
contract is affected by different price drivers based on the expiry date of contract.
As compare to last year the movement of gold price is in positive way. The
economy is in the recovery stage of great 2007-2008 depression so it indicator to
development of the economy.

Gold guinea:-

Gold Guinea is a coin that was minted in the United Kingdom between 1663 and
1813, originally worth one English Pound sterling and weighing around 8.3-8.4
grams. The name was derived from Guinea in Africa, from where most of the gold
used to make these coins originated. In the India context, Gold Guinea refers to 8
gram gold coins of atleast 0.995 purity, which are mainly utilized as a retail
investment. The demand for gold coins for retail investment is estimated to be
around 35 tonnes in India and this is expected to grow at a rate of 40% in the
coming years.

52
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Performance of Gold guinea:-

The last month (March) performance of gold guinea can be understand by


analyzing the gold guinea trading chart.

Contract Expiry Date:- 31st March 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 30th April 20

Contract Expiry Date: - 31st May 2011

53
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Analysis of Gold Guinea Monthly trading chart:-


As compare to gold, the market performance of gold guinea is not so familiar even
though it has equal value of gold main. It has high volatility in the beginning of
the month, at the month mid nearly 15 to 18th of March gold guinea went down, on
the same time gold main was in bullish mood. This high volatility may be caused
by number of factors but some core pricing drivers are as follows.

 An under supply of newly-mined gold.


 Gordon Brown striking out on his IMF gold sales proposal, with the US
opposing it.
 The Washington Agreement supporting gold by being generally against
excessive Central Bank gold sales.
 The real possibility of Asian countries buying whatever gold the European
Central Banks dish up.
 The never-ending story of the US trade deficit.
 Gold is a "de facto currency" and therefore not subject to demand
deficiencies caused by world wide economic slowdowns.

54
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 Gold is an inflation fighter and they can see stagflation approaching.


 Now-a-days dollar is weakening day by day against other major
currencies . India therefore purchased 200 metric tones of gold recently.
Other countries also likely to take similar decision.

 Prices have moved sharper than it should have. It just because speculators
moved it up up and up. Hence prices are expected to come down at faster
space which happened in last few days just after Fed cut rate by 75 basis
points.

 “The situation in Libya, it seems quite bad and we see the flow of funds
into safe-haven investment because of it,” In addition to oil prices, other
commodity that jumped due to crisis of Libya is gold. This precious metal
prices jumped to 1% became U.S. $ 1,400 per ounce. Investors are
competing to divert their investment to a safe place from inflation like
gold.
 Every state in the world keeps its foreign reserves in the form of foreign
currency i.e. $, Euro and pond. Gold is also taken as an asset in foreign
reserve. Taking it as an asset was a tradition, very popular in the past that
declined after the surge in value of dollar. Similarly the decline in the value
of dollar gives rise to the demand of gold as a part of foreign reserves.

Interpretation:-

As commonly, fluctuations in the guinea market show that trading turnover of


gold guinea. Gold main is probably show bearish only when international news
spread out but gold guinea is the one commodity which is quickly response to
both the national as well as international news. The most of the investor in gold
guinea are big institutional investor so slight movement of gold guinea takes
into deeper clash down of market.

55
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

A Year performance of gold guinea:-


The bullion market movement can analyze by throw understanding of drivers
which make volatile commodity market

Contract Expiry Date:- 31st March 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 30th April2011

Contract Expiry Date:- 31st May 2011

56
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Analysis of yearly performance of gold guinea:-

The price movement of gold guinea was followed the price of gold main. In the
month January the price of gold guinea is 16,000 but within the two month it
was went up to Rs 17200.each gold guinea contract were moved in different
way but all movement of this is most similar movement of gold main, as
compare to gold main it is more volatile due to following factors.

 Bank failures
When dollars were fully convertible into gold, both were regarded as money.
However, most people preferred to carry around paper banknotes rather than
the somewhat heavier and less divisible gold coins. If people feared their bank
would fail, a bank run might have been the result. This is what happened in the
USA during the Great Depression of the 1930s, leading Resident Roosevelt to
impose a national emergency and to outlaw the ownership of gold by US
citizens.

 Low or negative real interest rates.


If the return on bonds, equities and real estate is not adequately compensating
for risk and inflation then the demand for gold and other alternative
investments such as commodities increases. An example of this is the period of
Stagflation that occurred during the 1970s and which led to an economic
bubble forming in precious metal.

 Currency fluctuation

As gold is pegged to the US dollar, it has an inverse relationship with the


dollar. Right now with US being in great financial turmoil, the dollar has
weakened against many other currencies. Dollar is expected to weaken further
and prices of gold are expected to rise further. Dollar is a de-facto currency of
exchange around the world. But now with US on the brink of depression, gold
is substituted as a safe haven for investments. Though dollar seems to be

57
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

getting stronger, it may be a temporary effect and very soon it can head
southwards once again, in turn making gold an attractive and safe investment

 Higher inflation expectation

Regulators have pumped in huge amount of liquidity to avert recessions.


During the political meeting held in London recently it was restated that G-
20 countries intend to maintain loose money policies unit economies recover
clearly. The rising inflation expectation benefits gold as gold is seen as a good
hedge against inflation.

 War, invasion, looting, crisis

In times of national crisis people fear that their assets may be seized and that
the currency may become worthless. They see gold as a solid asset which will
always buy food or transportation. Thus in times of great uncertainty,
particularly when war is feared, the demand for gold rises.

 Gloomy US dollar outlook – Gold is traded in US dollar term but major


consumption of gold is outside US. Hence weakening US dollars makes gold
cheaper for Non- US investors and thereby increases demand for gold.

 Increase in investment demand –

Gold has limited statistical correlation with any of the assets classes as factors
driving gold prices are different from factors driving other markets. Hence gold
acts as an excellent portfolio diversifier. The average share of gold in global
portfolios is quite low and given the present fundamental setup it is undoubtedly
going to go up, leading to higher gold demand. Again gold prices have

58
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

exhibited astonishing performance during recent financial turmoil and that has
managed to attract lot of investor’s attention. Such investors are investing in
gold by way of exchange traded products and physical gold bars and coins.

Interpretation:-

Gold guinea is the mid way between the gold main and gold mini, so its
volatility is influenced by the enormous factors. The price of gold guinea will
go up suddenly due to national and international events and here sentiment of
investor play a major role .

Gold Mini:

Gold is the oldest precious metal known to man and for thousands of years it has
been valued as a global currency, a commodity, an investment and simply an
object of beauty.

Monthly trading chart of gold mini:-

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th april 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 5th may 2011

Contract Expiry Date:- 4th June 2011

59
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Analysis of monthly performance of Gold Mini:-

Investment in the Gold mini gives us a confidential return with high volatility,
from above chart we can clearly understand the price of gold mini is come down
(20950 to20000),as compare to gold and gold guinea ,gold mini is moving in
reverse manner, the reason for that is as follows.

 World oil price hikes will trigger inflation, which is currently a major
concern of global investors.

 Rising demand of gold jewellery.

 The investments in gold are influenced by comparative returns from other


markets like stock markets real estate other commodities like crude oil.

 Domestically, demand and consequently prices to some extent are


influenced by seasonal factors like marriages. The rural demand is
influenced by monsoon, agricultural output and health of the rural
economy.

 price of gold is mainly affected by changes in sentiment, rather than


changes in annual production.

 It's a natural hedge against the US dollar.


 It traded predominantly between $420 and $435 this year, thus setting a
new price floor, which is considered a "strong buy signal.

60
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 There are signs of inflation in the coming year or so, and again gold has
been the commodity that people have tended use to act as a hedge against
gold

 The primary factors include the value of your country's currency and other
currencies around the world. The lack of confidence in the Euro is one
reason why gold is going up now. Another factor is the overall confidence
in the world economy.

Interpretation:-

The last month performance of gold mini is not so satisfactory, gold mini was in
bearish movement. The main reason for difference in movement of gold, gold
guinea and gold mini is the pattern of investment by institution and individual. The
individual investors are invest more in gold mini and their sentiment play vital
role in market movement.

A year performance of gold mini:-

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th April 2011 yearly Contract Expiry Date:- 5th May 2011

61
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Contract Expiry Date:- 30th jun2011

Analysis of yearly performance of gold mini:-

The present contract which is trading in bullion market shows a high volatility, In
January the price of gold mini is Rs 20,600 but after two month the price is same.

62
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

so we can say gold mini has high short term fluctuation. Some of reason for this
fluctuation is as follows

 UK inflation has now out-run the Bank of England's official upper


tolerance of 3.0% per year for 13 months running on the Consumer Price Index.
 India is a country of contrasts where lavish palaces are mixed with
shacks. Poorer layers of population prefer to keep their valuable assets in the form
of gold jewelry so it can be easily carried in times of distress, floods and social
unrest.
 World’s overall economic situation is a very important factor influencing
gold prices in India. With many European countries being on the brink of
bankruptcy like Greece, for example, or facing huge state budget deficits, multiple
investors see gold as the only worthy commodity worth investing. If the world’s
gold price is on the rise, it automatically affects Indian price for gold.
 India is also world’s largest importer of gold from other countries. Rising
or lowering import costs inadvertently affect gold price in India today.

 Rising population in India triggers even higher demand for gold driving
gold price in India today even higher.

 India is known to be a country of parallel economy, money laundering and


large scale tax evasions. Since this unaccounted money cannot be kept in banks and
the value of national currency is on the downfall, Indians prefer to buy gold jewelry
or gold bullions to protect them from devaluation.

Interpretation:-

From last 12 month performance of Gold mini is quit critical to analysis, even
though bullion market was in up word trend gold mini is not supporting to
movement especially from the last six moth it has same price with little volatility
so we can say the investor of gold mini are try to hold and they expect long term
profit.

63
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Silver performance during 2010:-


When it comes to silver also, India is the world’s #1 consumer as well. And it can
be seen from imports figure which are up sharply in 2010, nearing 30-year peaks.
All such factors shows that in spite of such high prices from these countries will
continue to climb up, taking bullion prices to their new highs in 2011. While both
the gold and silver are set to rise further owing to continued currency devaluation
and enhancing physical demand, Silver is likely to out perform gold, in our
view.Silver prices is reasonably tracks gold and are more volatile than the yellow
metal.

LIFE TIME LIFE TIME


HIGH LOW
COMMODITY EXCHANGE 2010 HIGH 2010 LOW

MCX 45735.00 7551.00 45735.00 23610.00

SILVER

COMEX 5035.00 194.50 3069.00 1482.30

However, silver is also dependent on industrial growth, and therefore, price


advance may be limited if the global economic recovery is perceived to have
stalled. Moreover, the nation has received abundant monsoon in 2010, which is
likely to result in abundant harvesting and rising agricultural income. Silver is
expected to see higher demand from rural India in medium term.

Silver is also likely to attract greater attention from the fund community;
particularly in the US. Owing to its out performance, the white metal is likely to
receive more importance than gold. The world’s largest silver-backed exchange
traded fund, ishares silver Trust said that its holdings hit record at 10,941.34 tones
by December 7, 2010. Such strong fundamentals clearly shows us that there is still
a long way to go for bullion in coming period as current economical environment
is igniting up the heat in this counter.

64
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Present performance of silver (2011):-

The silver is famously called poor man’s gold, due to recovery of economy from
great depression of 2007-08 silver performed well. These days enormous use of
silver for different purposes from manufacturing to pharmaceutical industry made
to silver hit 32 year hike in their price.

Last month performance of silver:-

Performance of silver is affected by various price drivers , the presently silver hits
the 36 year records the reason for that level hike can be understand by analyzing
the present performance of silver.

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th May 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 5th Jul2011

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th Sep 2011

65
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Analysis of last month performance of silver:-

The silver is increasing continuously from last few months due to various reasons,
some of them are as follows

 Market demand for silver and gold is good, particularly industrial demand
for Silver, but this is not enough to absorb all the supply, so that leaves the
rest down to investor demand.

 Players have been joining in, and holdings of silver stock, the popular way
for retail investors to participate, rose 59.9 tons Thursday, the biggest
single inflow since late January. On the same day, holdings of Silver
jumped 42 ton to another record at 15,554 tons.

 After a weak January, prices of the precious metals rose in February when
the unrest that toppled governments in Tunisia and then Egypt sent players
to havens.

 Retail investors are showing particular interest in Silver coins in many


countries, including the US.

 Last month the Utah State Legislature passed a bill accepting US Gold and
Silver coins as legal tender and other States in the USA are considering
similar legislation in a direct rebuke to the Federal Reserve and its ultra-
loose monetary policy.

 Silver is more likely to follow gold higher, than base metals lower over the
next year.

66
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Interpretation:-
The present contract of silver performing well in the market, mainly because of
increasing the silver use in various industries. The foreign market also in bullish
trend that influencing performance of silver directly in the India. last month silver
outperforming gold.

A year performance of silver:-

The current performance of silver is shown by below chart

Contract Expiry Date:- 5th may 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 5th jul2011

Contract Expiry Date: - 5th Sep 2011

67
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Analysis of last year performance of silver:-

In the beginning of the year silver has slow movement after first month of this year
silver start to show bullish trend continuously and now it is in Peak of market even
gold also not performing like silver.

 Demand for silver from new sources like the solar energy, medical and
water purification sectors is likely to quadruple in the next 10 years
 Part of the reason for this is that such an uptick in industrial demand, which
has waned significantly as the photographic industry has used less and less
of the metal, would result in a decrease in the current metal surplus.
 The Silver Book explains, "For years the silver market has been
characterized by falling demand in the photographic industry and tepid
jewellery offtake, while supply has seen rapid growth. The resulting market
surplus has thus risen from 1,800t in 2000 to an estimated 7,200t in 2010."
 As the Silver Book says, "Investment demand has soared since the launch
of the first silver-backed ETF in 2009, and now accounts for more than 400
Moz (12,440t) of silver held in bullion bank vaults. Physical investment in
the form of coins and bars has also helped support prices in the face of this
explosive growth in supply".

68
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 The primary reason for our bullish outlook on silver is due to the
continuing & increasing global macroeconomics, currency & geopolitical
risks; silver historic role as money & a store of value; the declining & very
small supply of silver; significant industrial demand & perhaps most
importantly significant & increasing investment demand.

Interpretation:-

The current performance of the silver in the market is unpredictable; the


market is moving rapid bullish so the future trend of market will be bearish
because equity market is in upward but as compare to inflation rate the market
will continue in the same order as before so the prediction of silver movement
is quite difficult.

Silver Mini

Silver's unique properties make it a very useful 'Industrial Commodity', despite it


being classed as a precious metal. Demand for silver is built on three main pillars;
industrial uses, photography and Jewellery.

Last month performance of silver mini:-

69
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Contract Expiry Date:- 30th April 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 30th June2011

Contract Expiry Date:- 31st august 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 30th Nov2011

Analysis of last month performance of silver Mini:-

As compare to silver main, silver mini has high volatility this is mainly
because of its volume traded and market fluctuation factors they are as
follows:-

70
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

 The Rapid hike in the silver price due to the some of more new silver
consuming technologies would seek to substitute the metal with cheaper
products.

 The unrest in the economy like continuous increasing the inflation rate, hike
of oil price, commodity market boom also make upward movement of
silver mini.

 The situation in Libya, it seems quite bad and we see the flow of funds into
safe-haven investment because of it. So it automatically reflect in silver
market.

 There are lot of scams happened in India like 2G scam, due this investor
moved from equity market to commodity market.

 Silver is known as the 'healthy metal' and has many and increasing medical
applications. Research is ongoing on the use of silver and its compounds
for therapeutic uses and on its potential use as a disinfectant in hospitals
and other medical facilities.
 The Supply/Demand dynamics for gold and silver are vastly different. The
practical demand for silver relative to the supply of silver is much greater
than that of gold.
 Unlike gold, silver is like oil - as it is consumed in these many industrial
applications it is gone forever.

 Net government sales of silver rose to 44.8 Moz, primarily the result of
increased sales from Russia, with China and India in the beginning of
2011. That gave a leverage to silver market.

Interpretation:-

The last month (Feb-March) silver mini shows a positive sign of growth with
little volatility. Sudden shift of market from 53000 to 57000 during mid March
gave new history in the bullion market that is 36 year hike in the silver market.
So by considering the present silver market and future demand prospect we can
say silver mini will continue in bullish trend for some more months.

71
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

A year performance of Silver Mini

The last year market performance of silver mini can be analyzed by studying
performance chart of silver Mini

Contract Expiry Date:- 30th April 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 30th June2011

72
“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Contract Expiry Date:- 31st August 2011 Contract Expiry Date:- 30th Nov 2011

Analysis of a year performance of silver Mini

There was a tremendous growth in the silver performance as compare to last


year, at end of 2010 the silver price was Rs 43,000 but in March 2011 it was
gone up to Rs 56500.this rapid increase of silver price is mainly due to
following reason.

 There has been a marked increase in investment demand for silver in recent
years. Some of the reasons why this trend is likely to continue are - the
introduction of ETFs that track the price of silver, a new global liquidity
bubble, the significant growth in the global money supply, the proliferation
of millionaires, ultra high net worth individuals and billionaires, the
proliferation of hedge funds and the exponential growth in derivatives.
 The Bank for International Settlements has estimated that the total value of
derivatives contracts was $592 trillion at the end of 2009 (up exponentially
from $260 trillion in June 2008). Thus, dwarfing the GDP of the entire
world which was estimated at some $78 trillion at the end of 2010.
 Silver is a hedge against macroeconomics, systematic & inflationary risk
with the attractive added potential for significant capital gains. Real asset
allocation & prudent diversification would be an important reason to have

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an allocation to silver. Silver is highly correlated to the safe haven of gold


& is in effect a leveraged sister of the precious white metal. Thus, informed
investors use gold for wealth preservation & silver in order to make a
return.
 Investors in silver bullion coins and bars are hedging themselves against
further deflation and falls in property and equity markets. They are further
protecting themselves against rising inflation, possible currency
devaluations and still very prevalent geopolitical and macroeconomic risks
such those posed by the humongous global derivatives market.

 According to the Silver Book, supply is expected to increase at a CAGR of


around 2.4% over the next ten years, from more than 22,000t in 2009 to
more than 28,500t in 2020, so keeping supply running well ahead of
potential demand could be a very tall order."

 Silver posted an average price of $20.19 in 2010, a level only surpassed in


1980, and a marked increase over the $14.67 average price in 2009. This
buoyancy is very much alive today, with the 2011 price averaging $31.86,
based on the London fix, through the end of the first quarter.
 A significant boost in retail silver investment demand paved the way for
higher investment in both physical bullion bars and in coins and medals in
2010. Physical bullion bars accounted for 55.6 Moz of the world
investment total last year. Coins and medals fabrication rose by 28 percent
to post a new record of 101.3 Moz. In the United States, over 34.6 million
U.S. Silver Eagle coins were minted, smashing the previous record set in
2009 at almost 29 million. Other key silver bullion coins reaching
milestones include the Australian Kookaburra, the Austrian
Philharmoniker, and the Canadian Maple Leaf–all three posting record
highs in 2010.

Interpretation:-

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

By analyzing the present trading contract performance, we can say silver


market is in bullish but by comparing all contract each other we can
understand that contract which has expiry date on November has high
volatility that shows the future trend of silver will be unpredictable. Even
though the present movement will continue for some more months but the
end of year we can expect the price band of silver mini will be in Rs 55000
to 60000.

PRICE DRIVERS

Drivers are those things that could materially affect either a company's earnings or
the price of its stock. Every company will have its own unique drivers; although
some of the most common drivers similarly in commodity market we can find
some of core price drivers that lead the price of gold and silver in the market.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Price drivers of Gold:-

Assuming that the short-run price of gold is determined by supply and demand, it
will fluctuate on a period-by-period basis in response to variables that alter the
supply and/or demand for gold. We start by discussing factors that influence the
short-run supply of gold. Central banks have been willing to lease gold since the
early 1980’s. Gold producers (i.e. mines) can implicitly supply their customers by
leasing gold from central bank gold reserves, through a bullion bank intermediary,
as well as extracting it from their mines. The quantity of gold supplied from
extraction in any period is positively related to the gold price in an earlier period
because there may be a substantial time lag before mines react to a price change.

The quantity of gold supplied from extraction is also negatively related to the
amount of extracted gold that is diverted to repay central banks for the gold leased
in the previous period incremented by a physical interest rate in those cases where
the central bank opts for interest to be repaid in gold. Therefore the total supply of
gold to the market in each period from extraction is positively related to the lagged
gold price, negatively related to the amount of gold leased in the previous period
and negatively related to the gold lease rate in the previous period.

There are two components to the short-run demand for gold. The first category
consists of the “use” demand for jewellery, medals, electrical components etc. The
“use” demand for gold is a negative function of the price of gold. The demand for
jewellery is also affected by price volatility but the impact of this variable may be
too short-term to this analysis. The second category is the “asset” demand for gold
as an investment. This demand is based on a number of factors including dollar
exchange rate expectations, inflationary expectations, “fear”, the returns on other
assets and the lack of correlation with other assets.

Gold and Dollar rate

There is a strong relationship between the gold and US dollar, mainly we see the
inverse relationship between these two, AS per the analyst correlation between
gold and the US dollar index is minus 0.42 over the last two years, minus 0.44

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over the last nine years and minus 0.28 over the last 17 years. As a matter of fact,
the two former periods and the last (current) one have something important in
common, they saw the lowest (inverse) correlations with the currency. That is,
they occurred when the U.S. dollar had reached some level of relative stability
following a two-three year collapse in its foreign exchange rate

Since we are still in the midst of the final period, I used the current gold and dollar
price for the table, while measuring all the other periods from trough to peak.But if
we take the high in gold prices last year as our peak, the gain in gold was actually
70%, and the U.S. dollar lost just 2% in this period

Chart of Gold and US Dollar Relationship

By the above movement of gold we can clearly understand inverse relationship


between these two, when gold dollar value decrease automatically the gold price
increase because of devaluation of world currency. The current movement of gold
shows that US dollar value is declining.

Gold and money supply

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We analyze the impact that money supply has on the performance of gold, in a

global context. There are two main reasons why there can be a surge in money

supply. First, it can increase as a consequence of economic growth which in turn

may not result in higher inflation. Conversely, if central banks increase the money

supply to induce growth – as they have done as result of the financial crisis that

started unfold in 2007 – and too much money in introduced into the economy for

too long, this may result in inflationary pressures, according to classic economic

theories of monetarism. Intuitively, a positive relationship between money supply

and gold can exist in either case. First, if money supply is accompanied by

economic growth, the increase in wealth an access to capital can increase demand

for luxury consumer goods, including gold. Second, as excess money enters the

system and the economy remains stagnant, inflation pressures may prompt

investors to safeguard their wealth by increasing their exposure to hard assets, such

as gold. The system, peace time deficits will soon hit new record highs as a

proportion of FDP and that alone is a strong enough argument for many to flock to

hard assets.

Gold demand and supply

Supply –demand is a major influencer, amid rising global investor demand,Gold

mining is decreasing and the demand for gold is increasing. Gold supply has

decreased by almost 40 per cent as the cost of mining, legal formalities and

geographical problems have increased which has led to a fall in gold mining.

Economics have taught us that lesser the supply, greater the demand and in turn

greater the increase in price.

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“PRICE DRIVES OF GOLD AND SILVER”

Supply of gold from last 5 year

Supply of Gold Tonnes Percentage

Mine production 2209 59%

Net official sector 234 6%


sale

Recycled gold 1323 35%

Total 3766 100%

Demand of gold from last 5 year

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Demand of Tonnes Percentage


Gold

investment 1182 31.38%

Industry 433 11.49%

Jewelry 2151 57.11%

Total 3766 100%

Interest rates
Gold has always been considered a good hedge against inflation. Rising inflation
rates typically appreciates gold prices. It has an inverse relationship with interest
rates. As gold is pegged to the US dollar, US interest rates affect gold prices.
Whenever interest rates fall, gold prices increase. Lowering interest rates increases
gold prices as gold becomes a better investment option vis-a-vis debt products that
earn lower interest. Gold loses its shine in a rising interest rate scenario.

Currency fluctuation

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As gold is pegged to the US dollar, it has an inverse relationship with the dollar.
Right now with US being in great financial turmoil, the dollar has weakened
against many other currencies. Dollar is expected to weaken further and prices of
gold are expected to rise further. Dollar is a de-facto currency of exchange around
the world. But now with US on the brink of depression, gold is substituted as a
safe haven for investments. Though dollar seems to be getting stronger, it may be a
temporary effect and very soon it can head southwards once again, in turn making
gold an attractive and safe investment.

Geo-political concerns

Whenever there is geo-political strife, investors around the world rush to prevent
erosion of their investments and gold as a safe haven attracts one and all. For
example after 9/11 terror strike in the United States the demand for gold had
increased. With the recent events like tension between India-Pakistan, Israeli
strikes over Gaza, the ongoing war in Iraq, the tension between US and Iran
coupled with recession have investors scrambling for gold.

Central bank demand

With the dollar losing its value, central banks of most of the developed countries
have started to increase their share of gold. This explains the increasing market
demand for gold.

Weakness in financial markets

General rule of thumb in the market is that gold is always attractive when all other
investments are unattractive. Why is this? As gold is negatively co-related to
stocks, bonds, and real estate, gold is considered to be a safe haven and hence
during any crises, investors would like to sell off what they would term as risky
investments and be invest the funds in gold.

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Price drivers of silver

Silver has historically been a volatile choice for investing, but it is currently poised to
drastically increase in price in the near future. It is not easy to understand everything that
affects silver prices, but you could get an idea with a quick look at price history and the
current uses for silver. By seeing where we’ve been and where we are now, you can get a
better idea of where we might be going. Silver is one of the only precious metals that are
affected by the law of supply and demand.

 Gold to Silver ratio

Historically gold to silver ratio has been maintained between gold and silver where
a certain amount of silver could buy 1 oz of gold. In fact a long time ago, there used
to be a US law that fixed the gold silver ratio at 1:15, which then allowed 15 silver
ounces to buy 1 ounce of gold. Since 1840, the gold to silver ratio has ranged from
1:15 to as high as 1:97. Today’s gold to silver ratio sits at about 1:63. Many analyst
believe that this ratio is currently out of whack and will return to historical levels
which according Ted Butler and others has averaged 12-15 oz of silver to 1 oz of
gold. If the ratio returns to historical levels it would require a substantial rise in the
price of silver. At $1150 gold, silver would need to be around $76/oz.

 Inflation Past and Future

Just as gold is a great inflation hedge, so is silver. As you know silver has been
known as the poor man’s gold. The dollar has lost over 98% of its value, Gold vs
Dollar, What A Knock Out. This is just considering the inflation effect over the past
100 years or so, but what about right now and the near future? The erosion of dollar
continues but at an accelerated pace not seen before in the history of this country,
and thus makes it imperative to take the necessary precautions to protect the value
of savings now. I have not seen anything more compelling than silver to protect and
dramatically increase my wealth at the same time.

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The Federal Reserve is working overtime printing dollars and inflating the money
supply which means every new dollar they create is taking away value from every
one of the dollars in your pocket! This is where gold & silver really shine since this
type of monetary expansion has always driven up the price of gold and silver
historically. You can see just over the last year or two how the fed has really kicked
it into overdrive. The inflationary effect of the spike you see on the graph has not
yet hit, so it is still time to get positioned for the inflation tsunami and load up on
silver while you can and while it’s still cheap.

 Increasing Silver Industrial & Investment Demand

Last year global silver demand hit 888 million ounces, while worldwide mining
production totaled only 680 million ounces, thus creating a 208 million ounce
deficit. Many people don’t know that silver is the most used commodity in industry
next to oil. Industrial demand continues to pick up with new applications for silver
coming to the market all the time, like silver zinc batteries. The silver zinc battery
market alone is forecasted to be a large driver going forward for silver. If you are
looking for more reasons, then how about Ten Thousand Reasons To Buy Silver,
which goes into more detail about the numerous industrial applications that require
silver.

Silver investment demand is on the rise as well and perhaps may soon surpass that
of industrial demand. Just like people are turning to gold in the great flight to
quality, silver is also starting to attract demand from investors. One of the biggest
wildcards in the mix is China. Until recently, the chinese government did not allow
its citizens to buy precious metals. They have done a complete reverse and now
highly encourage all of their 1.3 billion citizens to buy, buy, buy. Don’t forget
about their neighbors, you know, the other country that has a 1 billion plus people
in it, India. The Indians have a long history and tradition of buying both gold and
silver. I believe silver demand in India will increase as the price of gold rises

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 The Real Silver Advantages: Leverage & Availability

Since more people are waking up and running to gold for asset protection due to the
erosion of the dollar and other fiat currencies, gold will naturally not be as
affordable as silver. One could argue that we have already reached this point.
People will come to reason that they can get the same level of protection as
purchasing gold, but at a more affordable price by purchasing silver instead. The
late comers to the party, who missed out on the chance to buy gold when it was
only $250/oz will want the next best thing which is silver. Likewise, many investors
will also see that they can get a much higher leverage on purchasing silver. So if
gold is starting to get too expensive for your wallet, then why not get some leverage
by purchasing silver? The best times to buy is whenever the prices are falling. Since
you get way more ounces of silver for your money than gold, you naturally get
more leverage. Leverage coupled with a great investment, equals great profits.

 Dwindling Silver Stock Piles

Going back in history, governments around the world use to have huge silver stock
piles. Around the 1950’s, the US government alone had 3.5 billion ounces of silver,
the largest stock pile in history. Since then according to the CPM group, just about
all of these stock piles have been sold off/consumed. The CPM data shows that
world silver stock piles have gone from over 2 billion ounces in 1990 to under 300
million ounces in 2007. Furthermore, silver demand has outpaced silver production
by 156% annually for 19 consecutive years. According to Ted butler’s article, Why
Silver is More Valuable Than Gold, more silver has been consumed than produced
for over 60 years now. Available silver stockpiles have tanked to an estimated 140

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million ounces or only a four-month supply of silver! No matter whose estimates


you believe, the real point to get from all of this is that the quantity of silver has
been disappearing at an alarming rate while demand is substantially increasing.
Conditions are ripe for a shortage

 Silver Leasing

According to Ted Butler in his article, Silver Leasing or Silver Fleecing, there
are/were about 150 million ounces of gold and about 1 billion ounces of silver that
have been leased out. What doe this mean? It means that some gold & silver
producers at one time or another did not have enough gold or silver to sell to their
customers, so they leased (borrowed) the metals from others (like central banks)
that had ample supplies at the time. The producers then would sell these metals to
their customers.

The leasing created a phantom supply of gold and especially silver. The problem
here is, all of this leased gold and silver has to eventually be produced or paid back.
It is the equivalent of borrowing money and living off of it with the plan of paying
it back at some point in the future. The problem is, when pay back comes you have
to come up with the borrowed money and you still have to come up with additional
money to continue to live off of. So the 1 billion ounces of silver has to be
produced/repaid at the some point, all the while silver demand continues to increase
along with yearly silver deficits.

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FINDING AND SUGGESTION

Findings from the study:

 Commodity market is one of the budding markets especially in India. It has


a wide scope to develop because India is country which grows large
number of commodity and metal which can be traded in the commodity
market.
 There is a lack of awareness and education about the commodity market in
India as compare to equity market.
 The forward market commission and SEBI is the present regulating body
of Commodity market but it requires a single focused governing body to
control, manage, and stimulate legal aspect of commodity trading.
 Devaluation of US dollar, Inflation, Demand and supply are the main price
drivers of bullion market. Because of change in these factors bullion
market creates new history in the market price of gold and silver.
 There is a close relationship between the price movement of gold and
silver. If gold price increase, silver price also moved in the same direction
because both are affected by same price drivers.
 Most of the commodity which is traded in the Indian commodity markets is
based on three to six month contract.If the commodity contracts become
default, the loss will be entered on the expiry date of contract itself.
 The gold price is in hike due to fear of future inflation and hedging
strategy. As per analyst it will further goes up, so this is a right time to
invest in gold.
 As compare to Gold, Gold guinea and Gold mini has high volatility in
price. Mainly because of difference in investment pattern, in gold Govt and
institutional investor play a major role but in the case of gold guinea and
gold mini individual investor play a major role that makes more volatility
in these two.

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 Silver is one of the new commodity added in the market, today market for
silver is hyped it’s only because of more demand for silver at the global
level.
 Silver demand increased mainly due to finding the new uses of silver and
new silver consuming projects like solar energy, nuclear plant, medical and
water purification.

Suggestions:

 Commodity market is a new concept to Indian investor,


there should be a clear education and awareness required
to developing and guiding the investor about commodity
market and concerned authority should take initiation to
marketing this investment instrument appropriately.

 Today if an investor want to enter in to a commodity


market he should invest a minimum amount which is
proscribed by concern commodity exchange but this limit
create a barrier to entry. Especially in gold and silver they
should invest a minimum lum-sum amount which is not
affordable to small investor so if minimum investment is
reduced to some extent that might help to more people
invest in commodity.

 In India commodity market is growing at present so it is a


better time to one should trade in exchange traded market
rather than the OTC market.

 “As compare to equity market, there is a volatility in


commodity market”, this was saying best suit during 19th
century but today because of gold and silver commodity

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market has equal volatility as equity market. So it’s better


to follow hedging in commodity market.

 It is not necessary that one must be educated to invest in


commodity futures. So, it is recommended that those who
are not so informed can also invest in commodity futures.

 It is recommended that now a day’s investor should invest


in agriculture commodity because within the few days some
of agriculture commodity is coming up with huge quantity.

Conclusion

After almost two years that commodity trading is finding favor with Indian
investors and is been seen as a separate asset class with good growth
opportunities. For diversification of portfolio beyond shares, fixed
deposits and mutual funds, commodity trading offers a good option for
long-term investors and arbitrageurs and speculators. And, now, with daily
global volumes in commodity trading touching three times that of equities,
trading in commodities cannot be ignored by Indian investors.

Online commodity exchanges need to revamp certain laws governing futures


in commodities to make the markets more attractive. The national multi-
commodity exchanges have unitedly proposed to the government that in view
of the growth of the commodities market, foreign institutional investors should
be given the go-ahead to invest in commodity futures in India. Their entry
will deepen and broad base the commodity futures market. As a matter of
fact, derivative instruments, such as futures, can help India become a global
trading hub for select commodities.

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Commodity trading in India is poised for a big take-off in India on the back of
factors like global economic recovery and increasing demand from China for
commodities. Considering the huge volatility witnessed in the equity markets
recently with the Sensex touching Rs 21000 level commodities could add
the required zing to investors' portfolio. Therefore, it won't be long before
themarket sees the emergence of a completely redefined set of retail investors.

As majority of Indian investors are not aware of organized commodity market;


their perception is of risky to very risky investment. Many of them have wrong
impression about commodity market in their minds. It makes them specious
towards commodity market. Concerned authorities have to take initiative to
make commodity trading process easy and simple. Along with Government
efforts NGO’s should come forward to educate the people about commodity
markets and to encourage them to invest in to it. There is no doubt that in near
future commodity market will become Hot spot for Indian farmers rather than
spot market. And producers, traders as well as consumers will be benefited from
it. But for this to happen one has to take initiative to standardize and popularize
the Commodity Market.

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