Weekly Report

09th May - 14th May 2011

Global Research Limited

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET
“SPICES ENDS HIGHER ON ACTIVE BUYING”

>>

www.capitalvia.com
 J E E R A ( M AY )
JEERA DECLINES ON WEAK EXPORT DEMAND Weekly Report
09th May - 14th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Jeera futures prices witnessed very choppy trade on Ÿ Weak export demand Script
mixed response last week. From opening prices
Levels
Ÿ Profit selling
started trading up on short covering at lower levels. R3 16400
However, later on prices resumed down trend on R2 15521
poor export demand however reduced arrivals at R1 15024
spot market limited the losses and futures closed the
week on marginally negative note. Jeera May PP 14642
MARKET OVERVIEW
futures are projected to open on slightly lower note S1 14145
next week. Subdued export demand for Indian Jeera Last week Jeera was bearish for most part S2 13763
weigh on prices. However, arrivals at spot market of of the week and prices were not sustaining
S3 12884
Unjha are declining continuously and further fall in at higher level but we saw some short
arrivals might support the prices to bounce back covering coming on the last day of the
during later half of the week. Arrivals at spot market week. Jeera has strong support at 14400
of Unjha were re-ported around 12,000-13,000 and price is not sustaining below this level.
bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). According to traders,
For the next week Jeera has resistance
decline in production is estimated around 10% only
at15000 and support at 13900.
against the earlier expectations of 25-30% decline.
This year production is estimated around 23-25 lakh
bags against 28-30 lakh bags last year. As per trade
sources, by May-June crop expectations for Syria STRATEGY
and Turkey will also arrive at the market. According
to derivative analysis, prices and open interest are Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one
falling while volumes are showing a positive move. should use the strategy of sell on higher
This indicates that trader's interest in selling this levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains
commodity is more and they are shifting in the next below the level of 13900 then we can
month contracts. Market is running out of traders expect the level of 13550, and if it sustains
willing to open or hold an open short/sell. Traders above 15000 then we can see the level of
are liquidating both loosing short positions & closing
15300.
winning long positions.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 2
 G U A R S E E D ( M AY )
GUARSEED CONTINUES UPTREND ON SHORT COVERING
Weekly Report
09th May - 14th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Guar seed and gum futures sustained the Ÿ Short covering Script
positive trend last week. The demand for the Guar
Levels
Ÿ Firm export demand
gum prevailing across the spot markets is supportive R3 3584
for the prices gain at futures. The concerns of R2 3358
choosing cotton in the irrigated Gaur growing R1 3264
regions are affecting market sentiments. The spot
prices also reasoned by Rs.100/quintal which had PP 3132
MARKET OVERVIEW
same effect on the futures. The increase in the prices S1 3038
while volume and open interest are decreasing Last week Guarseed did our target of 3180 S2 2906
indicates that the prices might remain bearish for above the level of 3120 and even closed
S3 2680
short term. The basis of the Guar seed and Guar near to it. Guarseed was bullish for most
gum basis has increased which might extend for the part of the week but we saw slight profit
next week. The Guar seed and Guar gum futures are booking coming at higher levels. For the
expected to open positive for the next week. next week Guarseed has resistance at
However profit booking on the previous rally cannot
3230 and support at 3090.
be ruled out as the prices have touched the 3200
levels. These levels are much higher according to the
market participants which might prompt profit
booking. The concerns about the shift in acreage
from the Guar to cotton in the irrigated guar STRATEGY
producing belt are supportive for the prices to gain
initially. Lower stocks in pipeline might keep prices For next week in Guar seed traders should
positive at opening. Limited buying, absence of go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
fresh export demand and the decreased arrivals Guar seed sustains above the level of 3230
might pressurize the prices at higher levels. The we can see the level of 3270, and below
sentimental effect of the normal monsoon 3090 it can touch the level of 3040.
predictions cannot be ruled out till the on set of the
monsoon.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 3
 S O YA B E A N ( J U N E )
SOYBEAN DROPS ON SELLING PRESSURE
Weekly Report
09th May - 14th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The Indian Soybean futures market saw a sharp Ÿ Weak Global Market Script
decline last week on continued selling pressure and Levels
Ÿ Slow import demand
made 6-week low. Most of the contracts traded on R3 2710
the exchange made the biggest daily fall. Broad R2 2533
based sell-off in global commodity market on
concerns of demand outlook had a bearish impact R1 2434
on Indian market. Domestic trader and investors PP 2356
extended their selling on expectation of further MARKET OVERVIEW
S1 2257
shrink in demand for oil and meal. Spot markets saw Last week Soybean did our target of 2340
subdued trading from traders and crushers amid S2 2179
below the level of 2380 and even closed
thin supplies. Bearish trend in international S3 2002
market—driven by falling crude oil prices, improving below it. Soybean remained bearish for
supply situation and shrinking demand—exerted most part of the last week but we saw
pressure on the market. The NCDEX Soybean some short covering coming at lower
futures are projected to extend its bearish trend next levels. For the next week Soybean has
week on follow through selling. Dwindling demand
resistance at 2380 and support at 2270.
for Soybean from crushers and traders amid thin
supplies is likely to exert pressure on the market.
Most of the crushers are away from active buying
due to absence of fresh meal export orders and on
poor crush margin. The global demand for soy meal
especially from South East Asian countries is shifting
STRATEGY
from India to Latin American countries. With the Soybean is moving in a consolidation
full-fledged harvesting of soy crop in Brazil and phase on charts and one should look for
Argentina, these countries are offering soy meal at
selling opportunities at higher levels, if
much lower price thereby attracting global soy meal
buyers towards them. Indian market is likely to move Soybean sustains below the level of 2270
in sync with weak overseas market. CBOT Soybean we can see the level of 2230, and on the
futures extended its bearish trend last week on upside if it sustains above the level of 2380
continued selling pressure. Broad based selling we can see Soybean at 2410 level.
pressure in entire commodity market exerted
pressure on soy market also. Slowdown in export
enquiries and expectation of diversion of some of
intended corn acreage to soy also added bearish
trend to the market. Report of active rainfall in
Midwest and Delta region of US has been prompting
farmers to switch intended corn acreage to soy
planting.
Global Research Limited
www.capitalvia.com 4
 C H A N A (JUNE)
CHANA ENDS HIGHER ON FRESH BUYING
Weekly Report
09th May - 14th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Chana spot and futures continued to trade firm on Ÿ Fresh buying Script Levels
account of improved buying at lower levels and Ÿ Lower level buying
settled 0.70% and 0.25% higher respectively on R3 2550
Wednesday. Increase in the prices of the peas also R2 2483
supported Chana prices in the last two days. Chana R1 2445
is close substitute of peas. Harvesting in Rajasthan,
the second largest Chana producing state in India
PP 2416
MARKET OVERVIEW
after MP is on its peak and would continue till mid S1 2378
May. Apart from Chana, other Pulses like Tur are also Last week initially in Chana we saw good S2 2349
trading lower on expectations that the sowing buying coming at lower levels, but later
S3 2282
acreage might increase owing to normal monsoon. profit booking came and it erased all the
Forecast of monsoon to be normal this season by early weekly gains. For the next week
Indian Metrological Department released on 19th Chana has resistance at 2455 and support
April 2011 would be favorable for sowing of Kharif at 2370.
Pulses. Production of Chana as well as Pulses in the
current crop year is estimated higher at 7.38 million
tonnes and 17.29 million tonnes respectively.
Planning Commission has estimated that the
demand for pulses in the country during the period
2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne. Globally, Canadian STRATEGY
Chickpeas output is expected to increase during
2010-11 to 1.28 lakh tonnes compared to 0.76 lakh Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and
tonnes the previous year. We expect Chana prices in one should go for buying at lower levels
the intraday to trade firm owing to improved buying strategy in it. For the coming week if
by the market participants. In the short term (Till Chana sustains above 2455 level we can
May), we expect prices to trade in the range of Rs.2, see it at 2490 and below 2370 we can
275 – 2,450 per qtl levels. However, in the medium expect the level of 2340.
term, we expect Chana prices to recover as prices
arrival pressure from the fresh crop would start
declining gradually. Also, fresh demand might
emerge thereby as prices would be trading almost
near the MSP levels. Thus from the long term
perspective, any significant decline in the prices may
be treated as a good buying opportunity expecting
prices to recover by Rs. 300-350 per qtl by June.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 5
 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report
09th May - 14th May 2011

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15197 15140 15140 14261 14527 37599 -670 13074 48,466.37

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 29151 29150 29490 27836 28572 50230 -579 7434 138,229.52
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 8830 8864 8864 8270 8470 16745 -360 12340 12,296.71
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 3058 3040 3226 3000 3171 1128210 113 146180 334,587.01

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8949 8860 9560 8860 9460 66065 511 37905 52,037.58
CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2400 2393 2454 2387 2408 495560 8 123440 111,906.30

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2459 2447 2455 2278 2336.5 244590 -122.5 148030 54,073.82

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 634.35 630.1 633.1 603.3 615.7 405240 -18.65 98400 230,166.79

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/QUINTAL 2806 2792 2811 2685 2741 299220 -65 128210 74,009.56
COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1142 1137 1144 1091 1126 200110 -16 63020 19,070.05

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 1058 1060 1095.5 1050 1056.5 55190 -1.5 11930 13,525.38
POTATO NCDEX 20-JUN-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 452.2 451.8 477.8 438.7 442 50400 -10.2 28320 2,138.82

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 30-APR-12 Kapas RS./20KG 850.3 845.5 854.9 757 781 754 -69.3 222 884.94
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1221.4 1221.8 1222 1191 1196 19980 -25.4 21890 2,189.54

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAY-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1039.7 1035 1053.9 953 962.6 2343 -77.1 476 8501.98
CARDAMOM MCX 15- JUN-11 Cardamom RS/KG 1015.4 1010 1014 904.5 918.6 4605 -96.8 1020 3763.10
* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 14527 -4.41

NCDEX PEPPER 28572 -1.99
NCDEX TURMERIC 8470 -4.08
NCDEX GUARSEED 3171 3.70
NCDEX GUARGUM 9460 5.71
NCDEX CHANA 2408 0.33
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2336.5 -4.98
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 615.7 -2.94
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2741 -2.32
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1126 -1.40
NCDEX GUR 1056.5 -0.14
NCDEX POTATO 442 -2.26
NCDEX KAPAS 781 -8.15
NCDEX WHEAT 1196 -2.08
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 962.6 -7.42
NCDEX CARDAMOM 918.6 -9.53

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 6
 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report
09th May - 14th May 2011

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
GUARGUM 20-JUN-11 9460 5.71 CARDAMOM 15 -JUN-11 918.6 -9.53
GUARSEED 20-MAY-11 3171 3.70 KAPAS 30- APR-12 781 -8.15
CHANA 20-JUN-11 2408 0.33 MENTHA OIL 31-MAY-11 962.6 -7.42

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
JEERA (MAY) 16400.67 15521.67 15024.33 14642.67 14145.33 13763.67 12884.67
PEPPER (MAY) 31940.67 30286.67 29429.33 28632.67 27775.33 26978.67 25324.67
TURMERIC (MAY) 9722.67 9128.67 8799.33 8534.67 8205.33 7940.67 7346.67
GUARSEED (MAY) 3584.33 3358.33 3264.67 3132.33 3038.67 2906.33 2680.33
CHANA (JUNE) 10693.33 9993.33 9726.67 9293.33 9026.67 8593.33 7893.33
CHANA (JUNE) 2550.33 2483.33 2445.67 2416.33 2378.67 2349.33 2282.33
SOYBEAN (JUNE) 2710.50 2533.50 2435.00 2356.50 2258.00 2179.50 2002.50
REFINED SOYA OIL (JUNE) 676.97 647.17 631.43 617.37 601.63 587.57 557.77
MUSTARD (JUNE) 2997.67 2871.67 2806.33 2745.67 2680.33 2619.67 2493.67
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (JUNE) 1226.33 1173.33 1149.67 1120.33 1096.67 1067.33 1014.33
GUR (JUL) 1158.33 1112.83 1084.67 1067.33 1039.17 1021.83 976.33
POTATO (JUNE) 531.03 491.93 466.97 452.83 427.87 413.73 374.63
KAPAS (APR 2012) 993.43 895.53 838.27 797.63 740.37 699.73 601.83
MENTHA OIL (MAY) 1191.63 1090.73 1026.67 989.83 925.77 888.93 788.03
CARDAMOM (JUNE) 1164.70 1055.20 986.90 945.70 877.40 836.20 726.70

DISCLAIMER
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have
the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources
that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred
based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.

The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.

CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended.

It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone
can be held responsible for.

Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is
received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 7