Global Research Limited

Commodity Weekly Report

Commodity
09th May - 14th May 2011
WEEKLY

PRECIOUS METALS SLIP ON

SELLING PRESSURE !

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 Economic Data

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Tue 6:00pm USD Import Prices m/m 1.8% 2.7%
May 10
7:00pm USD FOMC Member Duke Speaks
7:30pm USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 40.8
7:30pm USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 1.0% 1.0%

Wed 6:00pm USD Trade Balance -46.6B -45.8B

May 11 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 3.4M
10:30pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
11:30pm USD Federal Budget Balance -188.2B

Thu 6:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.7% 0.8%

May 12 6:00pm USD PPI m/m 0.6% 0.7%
6:00pm USD Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.4%
6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 474K
6:00pm USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.3%
6:00pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
7:30pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
7:30pm USD Business Inventories m/m 0.8% 0.5%
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 72B

Fri 6:00pm USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.1%

May 13 6:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.4% 0.5%
7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 69.8
7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 4.6%

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 Fundamental Market Overview

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

SILVER RISE ENDS FIVE-DAY ROUT, GOLD UP ON US JOBS

SILVER RISE ENDS FIVE-DAY ROUT, GOLD UP ON US JOBS
Silver rose 2 percent on Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak that cut prices by almost a third, while Gold rose after encouraging U.S. jobs data
triggered a broad bounce in beaten-down commodities. Silver, hit by a succession of margin hikes that nearly doubled costs, had suffered the biggest
sell-off since prices collapsed in 1980. Dealers, however, said the 30 percent slide from last week's record high was overdone. Precious metals rallied early
with other markets after data showed private-sector hiring hit a five-year high in April. But metals pared gains when the dollar surged against the euro
after a German media report suggested Greece had raised the possibility of leaving the euro zone. Spot silver initially traded as low as $33.22, its weakest
since Feb. 25, pressured by follow-through selling after it plunged 12 percent on Thursday. It was up 1.8 percent at $35.30. U.S. futures' trading was
active, with volume nearly three times its 250-day average.

COMEX OPEN INTEREST UP

Open interest in U.S. COMEX silver futures rose 3 percent on Thursday even as prices fell sharply, a sign the market remains vulnerable to further selling.
The price of the U.S. June silver contract fell as much as 13 percent on Thursday, leading a broad decline in the commodities sector. On Friday, June was
down over 2 percent. Silver is heading for its worst week since the Hunt Brothers collapse in 1980, after shedding 26 percent this week as higher futures
margin requirements prompted speculators to unwind bullish positions.
Silver has slumped around 35 percent since touching a record high of $49.51 an ounce on April 28. A major factor behind the sell-off was higher margins
for silver traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, which raises trading costs. A record $1 billion outflow from the iShares Silver Trust in the
week ended Wednesday helped feed silver's torrid price decline, just as the fund's earlier inflows aided the prior rally. The commodities sector was broadly
higher after the positive U.S. jobs report which suggested the economic recovery would regain speed this quarter after stumbling in the first three months
of the year. That view suffered setbacks earlier this week as other reports pointed to a slowing labor market.

GOLD UP ON PHYSICAL BUYING

Gold also bounced on Friday as jewelers, physical buyers and bargain hunters, especially in Asia, took advantage of lower prices. Spot Gold gained 1.4
percent to $1,491.80 an ounce, still sharply below a record high of $1,575.79 posted on May 2. COMEX June Gold futures settled up $10.20 at
$1,491.60, moving in a range from $1,471.10 to $1,498.50. For the week, Gold lost 5 percent, the worst weekly performance since late February 2009.
Sentiment among precious metals investors also took a hit after high-profile investor George Soros, who was bullish on Gold and a top investor in Gold
funds, has been selling Gold and silver in the past month or so, traders said. Indians, the world's biggest buyers of bullion, took Gold's latest tumble as
another incentive to buy on Akshaya Tritiya, one of the major Gold-buying festivals, and as India's wedding season gathered pace.

NYMEX-CRUDE SKIDS FIFTH DAY, POSTS RECORD WEEKLY LOSS

U.S. Crude oil futures slumped for a fifth day on Friday, ending with the biggest weekly loss in dollar terms since oil trading began on the New York
Mercantile Exchange in 1983, as a stronger dollar prompted investors to continue trimming oil bets. The extended sell-off in an extremely volatile day
snuffed out gains made after early data showed U.S. companies created jobs at the fastest pace in five years last month. However, the unemployment rate
rose to 9 percent, from 8.8 percent, up for the first time in five months. Oil demand worries continued to pressure the market, after recent data showed a
slowdown in quarterly economic growth and government data midweek which showed gasoline demand down 1.9 percent from a year ago.

FUNDAMENTALS
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for June delivery settled at $97.18 a barrel, down $2.62, or 2.63 percent, after trading from $94.63 to
$102.38. For the week, front-month Crude ended down $16.75, or 14.70 percent, the biggest ever drop for a week in dollar terms. In percentage terms,
the week's loss was the biggest since the week to Dec. 19, 2008, when price fell 26.8 percent.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS
U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory data, Wednesday, 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT)

COPPER SURRENDERS GAINS ON LATE DOLLAR STRENGTH

Copper eked out a modest gain on Friday, after upbeat U.S. employment data helped calm commodity markets spooked into free fall on Thursday by
fears of slowing growth in the world's No. 1 economy.
But gains were reversed in after-hours trade, as the U.S. dollar extended gains against the euro and chatter of a Greek exit from the euro zone heightened
concerns about the sustainability of the global recovery.
London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper for three-month delivery raised $5 to end at $8,825 a tonne. The gains quickly evaporated in late New York trade,
with the price dipping back down below $8,800. COMEX Copper for July delivery fell 2.25 cents to settle at $3.9755 per lb, placing the contract below its
200-day moving average. Commodities across the complex showed signs of stabilization after the U.S. jobs data reassured investors who had been
rattled by worries over global growth and days of sharp price falls. Barclays Capital said the sell-off in metals had been overdone, and presented investors
with a new buying opportunity. Copper futures open interest figures showed a fall in the near term (the cash to May contract prompt date) alongside
Thursday's falling prices, suggesting long liquidation. But three-month open interest jumped, which alongside falling prices suggests fresh short
positions.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

GOLD
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 1740 1625 1558 1510 1443 1395 1280

Market Overview
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold does not sustain on higher
level and closed near to its week low. In the coming week 1460$ will act as a major support
in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1460 $ an ounce then above 1505 $ an
ounce it can touch the level of 1525$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1460$
then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1440$ an ounce.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above
1460 $ an ounce, then above 1505$ it can test the level of 1522 $ an ounce and above
1530$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.
Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1450$ and 1410$.
Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1605$ and 1645$
Major support in MCX Gold is 21600 and 21200
Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22450 and 23050

SILVER
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 6914 5399 4463 3883 2948 2368 852

Market Overview
COMEX Silver is technically weak on charts. Last week COMEX Silver closed near to its week
low. For the upcoming week 3300$ and 3100$ are the crucial supports and 4000$ and
4250 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 61000 and 64000 will act as
major resistance and 50000 and 47000 will act as major supports.

Strategy
Technically COMEX Silver is weak on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on lower
level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3300$ an ounce, then above 3700$ an
ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3850$ an ounce. Trade by keeping
the proper stop losses.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

CRUDE OIL
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 142.61 122.41 109.79 102.21 89.59 82.03 61.81

Market Overview
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil sustained lower levels and made a
close near to its week low. For the coming week 94$ and 88$ will act as major supports and
106.50 $ and 109.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil
major resistance is found at 4800 and 5000 and major supports will be 4200 and 4000.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains
above the level of 94 $ a barrel then above 102.5$ it can slightly come up and touch the
level of 105 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4600 Crude oil can touch the level of 4700 if it
sustains above 4200. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

COPPER
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 490.15 446.25 421.90 402.35 378.00 358.45 314.55

Market Overview
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower
levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week. If next week COMEX
Copper sustains above the level of 390 then above the level of 405 Copper can test the level
of 412. In MCX Copper above 403 Copper can test the level of 410 if it does not break the
level of 390 on the downside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 435 and 437 will act as major resistance and 390 and 380 will act as
major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 425 and 437
and supports would be found at 390 and 380.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

NATURAL GAS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 5.438 4.914 4.574 4.390 4.050 3.866 3.342

Market Overview
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on
higher levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week. If next week
Natural Gas sustains below the level of 4.350 $ then below the level of 4.200$ Natural Gas
can test the level of 4.100 $ and above 4.350$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the
level of 4.450 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 190 in the coming week then it can
test the level of 183, if it does not break the level of 204 on the upside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.650 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and
5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance
would be 210 and 220, supports would be found at 185 and 175.

USD / INR
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 46.0500 45.3200 45.0200 44.5900 44.2900 43.8600 43.1300

Market Overview
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower
levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.4000 then above the level of
44.7500 USD/INR can test the level of 44.9500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go
down and test the level of 43.6000.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and
46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

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 Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest
(Rs. in Lakhs)

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 22820 22770 22835 21641 21880 230846 -940 12459 5083392.33

Silver MCX 5-JUL -11 Silver RS./ KG. 71350 71100 71100 51970 54919 683816 -16431 14338 12560514

Copper MCX 30-JUN-11 Copper RS./ KG. 415.9 415.9 423.95 393 399.9 528101 -16 24892 2132834.99

Crude Oil MCX 19-MAY -11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 5047 5040 5097 4219 4416 778916 -631 9376 3687158.82

Natural Gas MCX 25-MAY -11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 208.3 207.9 211.2 189.4 192.6 110180 -15.7 3395 279943.26

Lead MCX 31-MAY -11 Lead RS./ KG. 112.8 112 114 99.35 104.75 72193 -8.05 3493 379443.82

Zinc MCX 31-MAY -11 Zinc RS./ KG. 101.2 100.9 102 91.75 96.8 96758 -4.4 8479 464073.25

Nickel MCX 31-MAY -11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1202.4 1196.2 1221.9 1082.4 1110.9 195659 -91.5 5628 561173.6

Aluminum MCX 31-MAY -11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 122.55 122.2 124.15 114.5 116.7 20417 -5.85 2996 120958.01

* Turnover Till Friday

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

- - - - GOLD 1491.6 -4.16

- - - - SILVER 3528.7 -27.39

- - - - COPPER 397.55 -4.87

CRUDE 97.18 -14.70

WEEKLY LOOSERS
NATURAL GAS 4.235 -9.86
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
USD/INR 44.72 1.08
SILVER 05 –JUL - 11 54919 -23.03

CRUDE OIL 19 –MAY-11 4416 -12.51

NICKEL 31 –MAY-11 1110.9 -7.61

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 Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity 09th May - 14th May 2011

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Gold 24507.67 23313.67 22598.33 22119.67 21404.33 20925.67 19731.67

Silver 97592.67 78462.67 4935.67 59332.67 47565.33 40202.67 21072.67

Copper 467.48 436.53 418.17 405.58 387.22 418.97 343.68

Crude Oil 6333.33 5455.33 4935.67 4577.33 4057.67 3699.33 2821.33

Natural Gas 241.30 219.50 206.00 197.70 184.20 175.90 154.10

Lead 135.33 120.68 112.72 106.03 98.07 91.38 76.73

Zinc 117.33 107.08 101.92 96.83 91.67 86.58 76.33

Nickel 1417.27 1277.77 1194.13 1138.27 1054.63 998.77 859.27

Aluminum 137.73 128.08 122.37 118.43 112.72 108.78 99.13

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