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ON
FOR
Date:
Jitendra Pratap
Place:
I am thankful to management of IDEA CELLULER COMPANY
LTD.FOR Granting the permission , cooperation and valuable
information for completing this projecT No words are enough
to thank Mr. Mo. Mustafa Ali (Area sales Manager) and Mr.
Dipak Tiwari (),who not only inspired me to work on this
project but also accepted to guide me
Last but not the least, I would like to say that my parents and
friends for giving me their constant support and
encouragement incompletion of my project
JITENDRA PRATAP
I hereby declare that this project repot is mainly based on the summer
trating by me at IDEA CELLULER COMPANY LTD. This is my
orignal work and no part therefore has been submitted anywhere else
fodatr aaaaaany other academic purpose
Date-
Signature of
student
CONTENT
CHAPTER 1…………………………………………
CHAPTER 2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Objective of project.
Scope of study.
Period of study.
Limitation of study.
CHAPTER 3…
ANALYSIS OF DATA
CHAPTER 4……
ANNEXURE- QUESTIONNAIRE
BIBLIOGRAPHY
CHAPTER-1
COMPANY PROFILE
INTRODUCTION
As India's leading GSM Mobile Services operator, IDEA Cellular
has licenses to operate in 11 circles. With a customer base of
over 17 million, IDEA Cellular has operations in Delhi,
Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh,
Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, UP-West, Himachal
Pradesh and Kerala. IDEA Cellular's footprint currently covers
approximately 45% of India's population and over 50% of the
potential telecom-market.
The company has its retail outlets under the "Idea n' U"
banner. The company has also been the first to offer flexible
tariff plans for prepaid customers. It also offers GPRS services
in urban areas.
IDEA Cellular is a publicly listed company,
having listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the
National Stock Exchange (NSE) in March2007.
A brand known for many firsts, IDEA was the first to launch
GPRS and EDGE in India. IDEA has partnered with Research in
Motion (RIM) to offer Blackberry services on its network.
IDEA 'Net Setter'- Plug & Play, EDGE enabled USB Data Card
offers affordable data connectivity with faster speed and
consistency.
IDEA offers seamless coverage to
roaming customers traveling to any part of the country, as
well as to international traveling customers across over 200
countries. IDEA Cellular has partnership with over 400
operators worldwide to ensure that customers are always
connected while on the move, across the globe.
2007
Subscriber base as on MoU for merger between
December 31, 2007: Birla AT&T and Tata
21,054,027 Cellular Limited Andhra
Won an award for the Pradesh signed (Jan)
"CARE" service in the "Best
Subscriber base as on
December 31, 2006:
12,442,450
Became part of the Aditya
Birla Group subsequent to
the TATA Group transferring
its entire shareholding in the
Company to the Aditya Birla
Group
Birla AT&T commence
Acquired Escorts
Cellular operations
Telecommunications Limited
(subsequently renamed as Maharashtra & Gujarat
Idea Telecommunications
Limited)
Restructuring of debt
Launch of the New Circles
Reached the 10 million
subscriber mark
Received Letter of Intent
from the DoT for a new UAS
License for the Mumbai
Circle.
Received Letter of Intent
from the DoT for a new UAS
License for the Bihar Circle
through Aditya Birla Telecom
Limited. ABNL, the parent of
Aditya Birla Telecom Limited,
pursuant to a letter dated
November 22, 2006, agreed
to transfer its entire
shareholding in Aditya Birla
Telecom Limited to the
Company for the
consideration of Rs. 100
million.
2005
Subscriber base as on
December 31, 2005: 6,473,962
Reached the five million
subscriber mark
2004
Completed debt restructuring
for the then existing debt
facilities and additional
funding for the Delhi Circle.
Acquired Escotel Mobile
Communications Limited
(subsequently renamed as
Idea Mobile Communications
Limited)
Reached the four million
subscriber mark
First operator in India to
commercially launch EDGE
services 2005
2003
Reached the two million
subscriber mark
2002
Changed name to Idea
Cellular Limited and
launched "Idea" brand name
Commenced commercial
operations in Delhi Circle
Reached the one million
subscriber mark
2001
Acquired RPG Cellular
Limited and consequently the
license for the Madhya
Pradesh (including
Chattisgarh) Circle
Changed name to Birla Tata
AT&T Limited
Obtained license for
providing GSM-based
services in the Delhi Circle
following the fourth operator
GSM license bidding process
2000
Merged with Tata Cellular
Limited, thereby acquiring
original license for the
Andhra Pradesh Circle
1999
Migrated to revenues share
license fee regime under
New Telecommunications
Policy ("NTP")
1997
Commenced operations in
the Gujarat and Maharashtra
Circles
1996
Changed name to Birla AT&T
It goes without saying that the brand vision of idea mirrors the
company’s vision. The brand mission statement is...... To be
the most customer-focused mobile service brand, continuously
innovating to help liberate our customers from the shackles of
time & space.
The india foot print idea Anywhere connectivity bringing India
closer.
The technology advantage Idea Tomorrow's technology to enrich to
day.
The customer focus idea make a single interactional a sting
relationship.
The employee focus idea nuture the roots that nurture our ideas.
The Idea Cellular Limited falls in the “question mark” quadrant of BCG
matrix and in the High attractive and Strong Competitive strength category as
per the GE Matrix. Thus they need to formulate some strategies to try
capturing some market share, growing and building their brand image as well
as brand value.
Market penetration
The company enters where the products and the market already exists. IDEA
being a question mark that means it is competing in a high growth market but
with a relatively low share compare to its competitors. Market penetration can
be done by attracting competitor’s customers that implies increase in market
share. The strategy that IDEA can adapt under market penetration is to attract
non-users and convince to use their product more often. They are different
market penetration strategies like cutting price, increase in promotion, and
creating innovative distribution tactics. The target should be in such a way that
IDEA sales volume relative to its competitors should be high as expressed in
percentage. IDEA’s present market share is about 12%, and competitors like
airtel, Vodafone, and bsnl have a market share of about 31, 23, and 19 percent
respectively. Though telecom industry is growing rapidly every year, there is
always a little increment in the percentage of sales for IDEA. To overcome
this problem and to occupy the competitor’s position we recommend
following strategies.
• Increasing the mobile circles which are at present are only 11, so there
is always a need to expand its services.
• Provide more high end services like GPRS, mobile internet services
• Tracing out the search patterns which are left untapped by the
competitors to reveal new markets.
1) Product alliance
Idea should form product alliance with a company that has a strong
brand image and carry a promotion for one another. E.g. Acer in
collaboration with Ferrari launched Acer Ferrari laptops which are
catering to high end niche segment having high specifications and high
price.
2) Promotional Alliance:
Mr.KumarMangalamBirla(Chairman)
Smt. Rajashree Birla
Mr.SanjeevAga(ManagingDirector)
Mr. Arun Thiagarajan
Ms. Tarjani Vakil
Mr. Mohan Gyani
Mr. Gian Prakash Gupta
Mr. R.C. Bhargava
Mr. P. Murari
Mr.BiswajitA.Subramanian
Dr.RakeshJain
ManagementTeam
CorporateLeadershipTeam
Mr.SanjeevAga,ManagingDirector
Mr.AkshayaMoondra,ChiefFinancialOfficer
Mr.AnilK.Tandan,ChiefTechnologyOfficer
Mr.PrakashK.Paranjape,ChiefInformationOfficer
Mr.PradeepShrivastava,ChiefMarketingOfficer
Mr.NavanitNarayan,ChiefServiceDeliveryOfficer
Mr.VinayK.Razdan,ChiefHumanResourceOfficer
Mr.RajatK.Mukarji,ChiefCorporateAffairsOfficer
Mr.AmbrishJain,Director-Operations
Circle Heads
Mr. Virad Kaul, Chief Operating Officer, Uttar Pradesh (West), Delhi
& Haryana
Mr. Anish Roy, Chief Operating Officer, Punjab, J&K and Himachal
Pradesh
A. Promoter Group
Total 49.13%
B. Key Shareholders
WEAKNESS
Birla TMT HoldingsPrivate LimitedWeaknessesHigh Debt-
Equity Ratio: The Company's Debt-Equity ratio is high as
compared to its peers. Moreover, the Company needs the
approval of the lenders under its financing arrangements
before undertaking certain significant corporate
actions.Concentration: The Company revenues are derived
solely from providing mobile services and it is dependent on
four of the Established Circles for a significant proportion of its
revenues.
Although the entry barriers are in place like license and high
fixed costs, still we observe many new players emerging from
the state-level to national-level. This includes Aircel, Virgin,
Spice and Unitech.
5.Threat from substitutesTelecom sector offers a wide range
of services in India such as wireline, CDMA, GSM, internet,
VoIP, IP etc.
The first BCG matrix will be plotted for Idea Cellular Limited, our chosen
SBU, with respect to the market leader, Bharti Airtel. Taking the market share
of Bharti as 1X, the relative market share of Idea comes as 0.39X. The BCG
matrix thus, would look like as under.
BCG Matrix of Idea Cellular Limited with respect to
15
(in %)
LOW
30
HIGH
HIGH
0
10X 1X
0.39X 0.1X
15
(in %)
LOW
30
HIGH
HIGH
0
10X 1.35X 1X
0.1X
15
(in %)
LOW
30
HIGH
HIGH
0
10X 1X 0.74X
0.1X
HIGH
0
10X 1X
0.6X 0.1X
Growth in production
The GE matrix for Idea Cellular will be made keeping the following two
major dimensions:
1. Market Attractiveness
2. Business Strength
Market
Weighted
Attractivene Weightage Rating(1-5)
Score
ss
Overall
0.20 4 0.8
Market Size
Market
0.15 4 0.6
Growth Rate
Profitability 0.10 3 0.3
Technologica
l 0.15 4 0.6
Development
Global
Opportunitie
0.05 5 0.25
s
Market
Rivalry 0.20 5 1.0
7. Pricing: Being an Oligopoly, pricing strategies are a key for any player
to make profits in such a competitive sector. Thus we have given it
equal weightage as technology and more than even factors like
profitability and growth rate.
The rating is done on a scale of 1-5 where the industry attractiveness is rated
associated with the industry as a whole. Here 1 represents very unattractive
and 5 represents very attractive. We can see the difference in weightage and
type of rating varying in the different factors. The market growth rate can have
a low weightage as compared to market size but has the same rating because
growth rate is attractive for the players in the market. Also pricing may have
much more weightage as compared to global opportunities but the ratings are
the other way round. This is for the reason that pricing strategies are not that
attractive to the company because of strong competition and regulations
whereas global opportunities are more attractive for the industry.
Based on the above assumptions substantiated by the industry facts and growth
avenues, the weighted total score for market attractiveness in case of Idea
Cellular comes to be 4.05.
Business Strength:
1. Market Share: The market share of Idea Cellular is 12%. Well it just
acquired Spice Communications and is among the top 4 players in GSM
sector. But being a market follower its primary motive is profitability.
Thus we gave less weight to market share.
2. Market Growth Rate: Idea being a small player has ample of scope to
grow but its growth rate puts little effect to market rate as compared to
other players. So it has again been given weightage of 0.10.
Key
Weighted
Competitive Weight Rating(1-5)
Score
Factors
Market
0.10 4 0.4
Share
Market
0.10 4 0.4
Growth Rate
Profit Margin
relative to 0.15 5 0.75
competitors
Technologica 0.15 4 0.6
l Innovation
Brand
Reputation 0.10 4 0.4
Sales
Distribution
Effectivenes 0.10 3 0.3
s
Advertising
and
Promotional
0.15 4 0.6
Effectivenes
s
Pricing
strategies 0.05 4 0.2
Customer
0.10 3 0.3
Loyalty
Total= 3.95
STRONG MEDIUM
WEAK 5
19%
MEDIUM
1
3.6
6
2.3
3
HIGH
LOW
5 3.66
2.33 1
he factor for Industry attractiveness will remain same for market leader as
well. Bur the competitive strength will differ and so the weights and ratings. It
is evident from our above assumptions about Airtel that they will lesser rating
to profit margins and more towards advertising and promotional effectiveness
and brand reputation. The GE matrix of Airtel will look like as under:-
STRONG MEDIUM
WEAK 5
31%
3.6
6
2.3
3
5 3.66
2.33 1
The GE matrix for Airtel indicates that it lies in the 1st quadrant corresponding
to high market attractiveness and strong competitive strength.
The market challenger Vodafone will again have the same Market
Attractiveness dimension as the other players but will have an entirely
different competitive strength dimension. Assuming Vodafone’s company
objectives to be more focused on building a customer loyalty, we assign it a
weight of 0.15. Also its sales and distribution effectiveness is much lesser than
Airtel or Idea, so give a weight of 0.05 to it. Vodafone has a brand reputation
of the world’s largest telecom provider which it has to maintain even in the
Indian Telecom Industry. For that it would definitely look to emphasize more
on advertising and promotional effectiveness. So both these factors are given
0.15 weights.
Vodafone may still assign lower rates brand loyalty as compared to sales
distribution effectiveness as they would like to put a competitive front in the
Market
Weighted
Attractivene Weightage Rating(1-5)
Score
ss
Overall
0.20 4 0.8
Market Size
Market
0.15 4 0.6
Growth Rate
Profitability 0.10 3 0.3
Technologica
l 0.15 4 0.6
Development
Global
Opportunitie
0.05 5 0.25
s
Market
Rivalry 0.20 5 1.0
Sales
Distribution
Effectivenes 0.05 5 0.25
s
Advertising
and
Promotional
0.15 4 0.60
Effectivenes
s
Pricing
strategies 0.10 4 0.40
Customer
Competitive Strength
STRONG MEDIUM
WEAK 5
23%
MEDIUM
3.6
6
2.3
3
HIGH
LOW
5 3.66
2.33 1
Plotting the GE matrix for Vodafone, we found that it lies in the
quadrant corresponding to High market attractiveness but average internal
evaluation, i.e. average business strength.
:
Aditya Birla Group
Aditya Birla is organized into various subsidiaries that operate across different
sectors. Among these are viscose staple fibre, non-ferrous metals, cement,
viscose filament yarn, branded apparel, carbon black, chemicals, Modern retail
(under the 'More' brand of supermarkets, and also under the Trinethra, and
Fabmall brands until recently), fertilizers, sponge iron, insulators, financial
services, telecom, BPO and IT services. The Group consists of four main
companies, which operate in various industry sectors through subsidiaries,
joint ventures, etc. These are Hindalco, Grasim, Aditya Birla Nuvo, and
UltraTech Cement.
We have focused on the Idea Cellular SBU of Aditya Birla Group. It is One of
India's leading GSM mobile service operators; IDEA Cellular is headquartered
in Mumbai and has over 30 million subscribers. Innovation is central to
IDEA's Value Added Service products. It was the first to offer 'Global SMS' in
over 540 networks across all technology platforms. It has also acquired Modi
family’s Spice. But then it even faces tough competition from various major
players. The leading Mobile Networks today in India are Airtel, Vodafone
(sold by Hutchinson Essar to Vodafone), BSNL, MTNL, Orange, Aircel, Tata
Indicom, Idea, BPL etc. Each of these companies has a tough competition with
one another. BSNL & MTNL being government sectors have more advantages
than other Private sector Companies.
STRATEGIES FOR IDEA CELLULAR
The Idea Cellular Limited falls in the “question mark” quadrant of BCG
matrix and in the High attractive and Strong Competitive strength category as
per the GE Matrix. Thus they need to formulate some strategies to try
capturing some market share, growing and building their brand image as well
as brand value.
Market penetration
The company enters where the products and the market already exists. IDEA
being a question mark that means it is competing in a high growth market but
with a relatively low share compare to its competitors. Market penetration can
be done by attracting competitor’s customers that implies increase in market
share. The strategy that IDEA can adapt under market penetration is to attract
non-users and convince to use their product more often. They are different
market penetration strategies like cutting price, increase in promotion, and
creating innovative distribution tactics. The target should be in such a way that
IDEA sales volume relative to its competitors should be high as expressed in
percentage. IDEA’s present market share is about 12%, and competitors like
airtel, Vodafone, and bsnl have a market share of about 31, 23, and 19 percent
respectively. Though telecom industry is growing rapidly every year, there is
always a little increment in the percentage of sales for IDEA. To overcome
this problem and to occupy the competitor’s position we recommend
following strategies.
• Increasing the mobile circles which are at present are only 11, so there
is always a need to expand its services.
• Target the rural segment in India which is expected to grow by 15%
every year
• Provide more high end services like GPRS, mobile internet services
• Tracing out the search patterns which are left untapped by the
competitors to reveal new markets.
Strategic Alliance
3) Product alliance
Idea should form product alliance with a company that has a strong
brand image and carry a promotion for one another. E.g. Acer in
collaboration with Ferrari launched Acer Ferrari laptops which are
catering to high end niche segment having high specifications and high
price.
Promotional Alliance:
300 2014
2012
250
2010
200 2008
2006 Rs. Billi on
150
2004 Yea rs
100 2002
2000
50
1998
0 1996
1 2 3 4 5 6
st
India still has low cellular penetration of 1.95 percent, 51 in the world.
Despite the fact that India boosts a saving rate of around 25 percent, less
than 5 percent is spent on .
Beside idea cellular limited there are other 11 private players working in
cellular sector, which are as follows.
IDEA CELLULAR LIMITED
A Lifetime of Value
Old Mutual
Old Mutual was established more than 150 years ago and has
developed into an International services group w focused on asset
gathering and asset management. The old mutual Group offers a
diverse range of financial services geographics : South Africa, the
United States and United Kingdom. The company is listed on the
London Stock Exchange capitalization of approximately $6 billon and is
member of the elite FSTS 100 index. In the 2003 rankings of the
corporations Fortune magazine, Old mutual climbed 87 places to
position number 366 and was also listed 14th company in the world.
In the USA Old Mutual is one of the top ten fixed annuity business
offering an array of specialist asset management. The company s US Life
business recorded sales of $4 billion at the end of 2002.
The Old Mutual Group has the ability to cater for variety of
consumer segments and offers a comprehensive and in products for all
income groups.
Vision and Mission Statement
Value Creation.
Value Creation rather than size alone will be our business driver.
GROWTH IN INSTALLED
CAPACITY
Performance Highlights
- Higher Interest costs and effective tax rate suppress the Bottom-line:
Owing to a 21.6% qoq increase in interest costs and an increase in the
effective tax rate from 6.4% to 14% in 2QFY2010, the Bottom-line declined
by 25.9% qoq. On a yoy basis, the Bottom-line spurted by 52.8%, mainly on
account of strong operational efficiency.
Outlook and Valuation
In addition to the five newer service areas, Idea has recently expanded to the
service areas of Jammu & Kashmir, Kolkata & West Bengal, and North East
& Assam. It now covers a total of 18 service areas, which will contribute to
revenues from 3QFY2010 onwards. This move is in line with the company’s
expansion plan to garner a pan-India presence, for seizing upcoming
opportunities, like the demand in Broadband services, Value Added Services
and the forthcoming 3G auction, once the regulatory and pricing environment
in the Indian Telecom Sector stabilises. Hence, the company’s operational
expense is expected to be on the higher side in the coming quarters, as it
focuses on brand-building and high-end technology to match up with the
growing demand, and for increasing its coverage in rural areas. For these
initiatives, Idea has planned a capex of Rs45bn in FY2010.
Going forward, we expect Idea Cellular to record a CAGR of 23% in its
consolidated Top-line over FY2009-11E, while the Bottom-line is expected to
record a CAGR de-growth of 1.5% over the same period. We estimate the
company’s mobile subscriber base (excluding Spice) to post a CAGR of 32%
over FY2009-11E and to touch 67.9mn, while including Spice, the subscriber
base is estimated to post a CAGR of 31.4% to touch 74.3mn. We estimate
blended ARPUs (ex-Spice) to post a CAGR decline of 15% to Rs190.4 by
FY2011E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a P/E of 20.2x FY2011E EPS
and an EV/EBITDA of 6.1x FY2011E EBITDA.
ACCUMULATE
MF/Banks
/Indian FIs
Idea’s 40.1
FDEPS (Rs) 1.6 3.2 2.5 2.8 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.7 8.6 5.3 4.3 RoE (%) 30.3 36.4 10.5 7.4
RoCE (%) 18.4 19.8 12.2 17.1 Sales/GFA (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
FUTURE PLANS
Future plane :
Our Bureau
Plans to enter rural, neglected circles to gain subscribers
Bangalore , Jan. 11
3G is the third generation telecom network which will bring faster data access
to subscribers who want to connect to the Internet. A WiMAX (Worldwide
Interoperability for Microwave Access) network will mean users can avail
themselves of high-speed broadband Internet wirelessly over their laptops.
The Aditya Birla owned company has 3G ready networks as it has sourced
latest equipment from global vendors. Hence upgrading to 3G will not be an
issue, said sources.
Trials in 3 cities
Idea also plans to enter rural and neglected circles as a strategy to gain
subscribers.
The company recently filed for an IPO with SEBI and hopes to use part of the
funds to roll out network in Bihar. It has paid Rs 10 crore as licence fees to
enter the state. The state suffers a tele-penetration of just 7 per cent, compared
to a national teledensity average of 14 per cent.
However, Bihar is the third most populated circle in the country, according to
sources. The North East, another circle where telecom revolution is still in its
early stages, is also on Idea's radar.
The operator will begin to catch up with other players with its new backing by
a single promoter - the Birla group. It plans to `cover gaps quickly', reported
sources on Thursday.
Other advancements in the telecom industry will help it cut costs - use of e-
mail to send bills to customers; sharing cell sites; smaller base transmission
stations that will mean lesser infrastructure requirements and expenses and
independent tower operators. Along with its plan to go for a national long
distance licence, it will also look at international long distance in the near
future.
Idea has a net worth of Rs 600 crore while its accumulated losses are in the
range of Rs 1,500 crore. It has 1.3 crore subscribers and an average revenue
per user of Rs 376. The market share owned by the operator is 8.4 per cent.
The company's IPO is expected to fetch Rs 2,500 crore. It has also opted for
15 per cent greenshoe option, which will bring the value to Rs 2,875 crore. It
plans to pay back preferential shares worth Rs 600 crore once the IPO is out
by mid-Februrary.
Financial Analysis Of The Company For At Least Three Years
Idea Cellular seems like a good investment for the long term.
India is one of the fastest growing cellular markets in the world and this is likely to
continue for next five years at least.
PE valuation
For FY 2008, the eps is expected to be Rs 4+. At Rs 120, the stock is trading at 30
times FY 2008 earnings.
Idea Cellular will nearly double its PAT in FY 2008 compared to FY 2007.
Considering the growth that Idea has been showing, a forward PE of 30 seems fair
valuation.
For last four finnacial years, the PAT for Idea Cellular has been
As April 2008 comes closer, people will start looking at FY 2009 (April 2008 –
March 2009) earnings.
Idea Cellular's FY 2009 eps is estimated to be around Rs 5.5. At Rs 120, the
forward PE based on FY 2009 earnings works out to be 21.81.
FY 2010 eps should be surely more than Rs 7.
If we give Idea Cellular a forward PE of 22-23 in 2009, one can expect a price
of Rs 160+ in next two years (mid 2009).
Investors can accumulate the stock around Rs 110-Rs 112.
The stock has gone below the 50 day EMA and may see some downside in the
short term.
Currently the stock is fairly valued. There isn't much upside in the near term
and this is not a trading call.
Idea has been struggling to enter the Mumbai, Bihar and Jharkhand market because
of spectrum unavailability. This issue is expected to be resolved by end of FY
2008. Once Idea starts operating in these circles, it will get the fuel required for
growth for next 2-3 years.
Idea Cellular board has approved the formation of a separate subsidiary for its
tower business. There will surely be some cost benefits and value unlocking due to
this restructuring, but there is not enough clarity regarding it. Most probably the
gains will be marginal and will have no major impact on the actual earnings.
My view remains the same right now. The margins are getting squeezed and this is
having an effect on the PAT figures. Also government's new spectrum policy will
make it difficult and expensive for existing GSM players to get fresh spectrum.
News in today's papers = Reliance Communications wants to reduce
rates in the GSM sector - this means even thinner margins for players like
Idea.
The high growth time for mobile operators is now almost over.
Once CDMA players like Reliance Communications enter GSM market, the
competition will increase further.I still think the target of Rs 160 by mid 2009 is
achievable. (Actually it has already touched 160 twice in October. - 160.8 on 16th
and 160.9 on 18th).However, if you buy Idea at Rs 130, Rs 160 in 18-21 months will
not be that great a return If you wish to invest in this stock, I suggest you buy it at a
lower levels - something like Rs 115.There is less risk in this stock for the long term,
but I don't think it can give spectacular growth from now on.Personally, I would
look at other sectors like power, capital goods, financial services etc. Telecom no
longer attracts me.Not a bad move. Idea is losing its sheen.However Reliance
Communications seems fully valued at this price (going at a PE ratio of more than
50). You should not really expect anything more than moderate returns in next one
year. It will soon enter the GSM arena and this may bring in some additional
revenue. However, the whole mobile space is now getting saturated and margins are
Problem being faced by the organization :
- “In the quarter ended June 2009, that is exactly one year ago, Idea had
reported a realized rate of 58 paisa per minute and a variable cost per minute
of 44 paisa. For the latest quarter, which is the quarter that just ended, the
realized rate itself is down to 44 paisa, which was the variable cost per minute
one year ago. Now, if we had stayed at the variable cost one year ago, we
would have had a nil EBITDA margin. However, in the quarter that just
ended, the variable cost per minute is down to 35 paisa…we are not the lowest
in India (in terms of realised rate per minute), but there are indeed very few
companies in India or in the world who can run a quality operation at 44 paisa
per minute, keep investing in the future, support losses from nine gestating
circles and still make a cash profit of over Rs. 700 Crores per quarter. In fact,
over the last six to eight quarters, while the world around us might have
changed, our cash profits have remained largely steady.”
- But if you see last six months, the decline was steeper in the first three of
these six months. Since then, the decline, say, from March, April to June, has
been slower. It appears that the rate of decline is slowing. That means there is
a tendency to flatten, based on pure numbers.
- “(Tariff) Bloodbaths don’t happen because anyone wants it. They happen
because you have a situation where no one is in control. You get sucked into
it. But looking at the economic analysis, if a large number of companies are
burning cash, it places an inherent restriction for long term. In short term you
can always get some adventurous or courageous bank to lend money and they
are plenty of them in India. But at some point of time, the chickens come
home to roost and I think those days are not very far away. So I would be
surprised if you have another round of bloodbath”
PRODUCT
Scope of the Study:
As learning is a human activity and is as natural, as breathing.
Despite of the fact that learning is all pervasive in our lives,
psychologists do not agree on how learning takes place. How
individuals learn is a matter of interest to marketers. They
want to teach consumers in their roles as their roles as
consumers. They want consumers to learn about their
products, product attributes, potential consumers benefit, how
to use, maintain or even dispose of the product and new ways
of behaving that will satisfy not only the consumer’s needs,
but the marketer’s objectives.
Idea Cellular
Idea Cellular started its operations in 1995 and is under the
Aditya Birla Group, which holds 98.3% stake in the company.
The Company Idea Cellular Limited is one of the telephony
wireless companies that functions in many states in India.
Method of study:
Sources of Information:
Analyst:
Atul Kanwar
atulkanwar@bajajcapital.com
Reviewed by:
Alok Agarwala
aloka@bajajcapital.com
Profile
Industry Telecom
Market Cap (Rs cr.) 19141.3
Face Value (Rs.) 10.0
52-week high/low (Rs.) 84.8/47.8
Book Value (Rs.) 34.3
Price / Book Value 1.7
PE Ratio (TTM) 20.1
Dividend (%) 0.0
Average Daily Volume (1 Y) 6425658
Stock idea – Idea Cellular Ltd.
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research 2/6
_ Idea is doing very well in the 900Mhz frequency
service areas
Out of the nine 900 MHz circle under its belt, Idea is
the leader in four of them. It is
the no. 2 player in other three service areas. Overall it
is the no. 2 player in these 9
service area with a market size of 20.6%.
Telecom Service Area
(900 Mhz)
Revenue Market Share
(RMS)
Rank
Madhya Pradesh 29.1% 1
Kerala 29.0% 1
Maharashtra 28.4% 1
Uttar Pradesh (West) 27.7% 1
Haryana 20.4% 2
Punjab 17.8% 2
Andhra Pradesh 16.1% 2
Gujarat 18.0% 3
Karnataka 6.4% 6
TOTAL 20.6% 2
Source: Company
_ Growth in subscriber base, Minutes of use on network
& VAS
Idea closed FY09 with ~39 million subscribers. The
company crossed the ~50 million subscriber mark in
August 2009. The growth has been very strong with the
subscriber base touching 66.7 million by the end of
May 2010. Total Minutes of Usage on the network were
44.2 billion in Q4FY09, against 68.3 billion in Q4FY10,
showing a growth of 54.5% on a YoY basis. Value
Added Services (VAS) as % of revenue has grown from
9.5% in Q4FY09 to 12.4% in Q4FY10.
Cell
Sites
Source: Company
Average Revenue per User
(ARPU)
Source: Company
Value Added Services as % of
Revenue
Source: Company
Stock idea – Idea Cellular Ltd.
(%)
Net Sales 3319.0 3135.8 2930.1 5.8 13.3
Other Income 51.9 0.0 0.0
Total Income 3399.7 3149.5 2942.5 7.9 15.5
Total Expenditure 2424.2 2335.3 2130.6 3.8 13.8
PBIDT 975.5 814.1 811.9 19.8 20.2
PBIDT Margin % 29.4 26.0 27.7
Interest 114.1 93.8 104.9 21.6 8.8
PBDT 861.4 720.4 707.0 19.6 21.8
Depreciation 566.7 513.1 431.0 10.5 31.5
PBT 294.7 207.3 276.1 42.2 6.8
Tax 28.1 37.2 21.1 -24.4 33.4
Adjusted PAT 266.6 170.1 255.0 56.7 4.6
APAT Margin (%) 8.0 5.4 8.7
Financials: Consolidated
Rs. Cr.0903 200803 200703 200603
4 yr
CAGR %
Share Capital 3300.2 3100.1 2635.4 2592.9 2259.5
Networth 13245.2 3540.8 2179.8 650.6
Capital Employed 22159.3 10056.2 6430.3 4419.2
Total Income 12530.7 10652.2 6919.1 4411.4 2989.6
43.1
Total Expenditure 9039.9 7309.9 4458.5 2889.3 1890.9
47.9
Revenues 12397.9 10131.3 6720.0 4366.4 2966.2 43.0
PBIDT 3490.8 3342.2 2460.6 1522.1 1098.7 33.5
Other Income 83.6 516.3 199.1 46.2 24.5
Valuation
EPS (Rs)* P/E Ratio (x) Market Cap (Rs P/BV (x)
2.60 27.49 m) 1.78
235,966.45
AGC NETWORKS
BHARTI AIRTEL
HFCL
IDEA CELLULAR
ITI LTD.
KRONE COMM.
MTNL
RELIANCE COMM
TATA COMM.
TATA TELESERV (MAH)
1. Total Activations/month
Reliance 30%
Vodaphone 15%
Idea 20%
Uninor 15%
Airtel 20%
2. Highest Selling Brand
Reliance 25%
Vodaphone 15%
Idea 40%
Uninor 10%
Airtel 10%
3. Total Recharge (value/month) Rs
Reliance 25%
Vodaphone 20%
Idea 30%
Uninor 10%
Airtel 15%
4. Which is the most preferred Brand
Reliance 20%
Vodaphone 15%
Idea 30%
Uninor 10%
Airtel 25%
5. Which operator has in shop branding
Vodaphone 15%
Idea 35%
Uninor 20%
Airtel 30%
6. Does Idea has Glow sing Board(GSB)
Yes 85%
No 15%
7. Which other brand has GSB
Reliance 20%
Vodaphone 15%
Idea 30%
Uninor 10%
Airtel 25%
8. Does Idea have Non lit Board
Yes 75%
No 25%
9. Which other operator has Non lit board
Reliance 25%
Vodaphone 10%
Idea 30%
Uninor 15%
Airtel 20%
10. Does Idea have POP poster/dangler ect.
Reliance 12%
Vodaphone 20%
Idea 26%
Uninor 12%
Airtel 30%
FINDINGS
55% of the people use only mobile, and 40% of respondents use both
the services & only 5% people use the telephone service. It shows the
popularity of cellular phone services.
34% of respondents are using the idea services, which is the highest
percentage of users of cellular phone. Airtel takes 2nd place in Gwalior
with 28% of users. Then comes reliance and BSNL, and tata indicom
having least customers in the Bhopal.
64% of respondents are satisfied with the call rates of the lifetime plans;
it is because telecom companies have slashed their call rates few months
ago. Still in this situation 36% of respondents did not satisfy with the
call rates which service they are using.
In the lifetime plan of cellular companies most of the respondents are
using this service because of its validity period with 83% of answer.
Where 15% of people like this services because of its call rates.
Most of the people are using lifetime services because of money savings
with the percentage of 48. Where 29% of people like this service
because of the facilities provided by the operators. And 23% of people
are using this service because of incoming only.
Questionnaire
Name of Trainee
Location :
1. Shop
Name……………………………………………………………………
……………
2. Mailing
Address…………………………………………………………………
…………….
3. Cantact
Person……………………………………………………………………
……………
4. Contact No.
……………………………………………………………………………
………..
5. Total
Activations/month………………………………………………………
…………...
BOOKS:
www.trai.gov.in
http://www.tataindicom.com/t-aboutus-ttsl-organization.aspx
http://www.rcom.co.in/webapp/Communications/rcom/Aboutus
/aboutus_home.jsp
http://www.ideacellular.com/IDEA.portal?
_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=IDEA_Page_AboutIdea
http://www.bsnl.co.in/about.htm
http://www.bsnl.co.in/service/tariff_excel_pre.htm
http://210.212.144.243/utility/tariff.htm
http://www.trai.gov.in/trai/upload/PressReleases/15/pr16jan06.
pdf
www.airtel.in
http://www.rcom
.co.in/webapp/C
ommunications/
rcom/index.jsp