Campus Finance

Homework #1
Financial model of investment project
Последовательность выполнения задания:
1
2

Начинаем вводить исходные предпосылки для расчётов (лист Inputs):

5

7
8
9

10

Приступаем к прогнозу денежных потоков:

10
11
12
13
13
14
15
Начинаем расчёт FCFF:
17
18
19
Сценарии и анализ чувствительности:
20

21

22
 - этим цветом выделены ячейки, которые нужно заполнить

Последовательность выполнения задания:

Внимательно озназомьтесь с инструкцией в PDF
На листе Legend ознакомьтесь со структурой модели. В правильно структурированной модели легко ориентироваться,
проверять свои расчёты и вносить изменения.
На листе Legend просмотрите условные обозначения. Вввод условных обозначений в модель позволит быстро
ориентироваться в ней и значительно упростит понимание расчётов.
Начинаем вводить исходные предпосылки для расчётов (лист Inputs):
В рамках модели используется несколько макроэкономических сценариев (инфляция, обменный курс). Ознакомьтесь с
механизмом сценариев и формулой Choose на листе Inputs и Control и сделайте то же самое в строке с прогнозом цен на уголь
(benchmark).

Сделайте прогноз цены нетбэк на коксующийся уголь на базисе FCA исходя из формулы нетбэк (подробнее про нетбк в
раздаточном материале).
Расчитайте стоимость капитала.
Рассчитайте дисконт-факторы
Постройте прогноз удельных переменных затрат и постоянных затрат исходя из исходных предпосылок и инфляции.

Далее на листе Inputs представлены капекс в реальных ценах, предпосылки для прогноза амортизационных отчислений и
инвестиций в оборотный капитал. Эти данные пригодятся позже.
Приступаем к прогнозу денежных потоков:
Прогнозируйте выдержку исходя из рассчитанной цены нетбэк и объема продаж.
Рассчитайте переменные затраты исходя из удельных переменных затрат и объемов производства.
Постоянные затраты не зависят от объемов и прогнозируются исходя из базовых значений и инфляции.
Рассчитайте необходимые инвестиции в поддержание оборотного капитала.
Постройте прогноз налога на прибыль исходя из накопленного налогового убытка и прогнозной налоговой базы.
Расчитайте капекс в номинальных ценах с учётом инфляции и изменения обменного курса.
Рассчитайте амортизацию.
Начинаем расчёт FCFF:
Залинкуйте результаты своих расчётов на лист Results
Рассчитайте ключевые показатели инвестиционной привлекательности: NPV - IRR - Payback period
Рассчитайте финансовые коэффициенты, необходимые для презентации проекта (см. Шаблон Powerpoint)
Сценарии и анализ чувствительности:
С помощью механизма What If на листе Control построена таблица подстановок, выдающая значения NPV при различных
сценариях цен и макроэкономики. Сделайте то же самое для IRR.
Обратите внимание на анализ чувствительности. Ознакомьтесь с его механикой, факторы чувствительности по Coal Price и
Coal Production добавлены в модель как заданные имена (см. Formulas - Named Ranges). Проверьте, что факторы
чувствительности корректно заведены в модель, расчёты не дублируются. Сделайте то же самое для остальных параметров:
опекс, капекс, обменный курс и ставка дисконтирования.
Подготовьте на листе Handouts графики и таблицы, необходимые для презентации проекта.
Ссылка
=Legend!A1
=InputTI!A5

=InputTI!A38

(!) Обращайте внимание на примечания к ячейкам

=Inputs!C5

=Inputs!C26
=Inputs!C38 так выглядят примечания

=Inputs!C44
=InputTD!A25
=Inputs!C71

=Inputs!C79

=Calc!$C$5
=Calc!$C$11
=Calc!$C$26
=Calc!C31
=Calc!C46
=Calc!C52
=Calc!C86

=Results!C5
=Results!C30
=Results!C35

=Control!D24

=Control!$D$40

=Handouts!B1
 Содержание
Название листа Описание
Листы с результата
Control Контрольная панель: сценарии, параметры чувствительности и главные резу
Results Прогнозные денежные потоки и ключевые показатели.
Handouts Графики и таблицы для презентации.
Расчётные листы
Inputs Входные предпосылки модели/ исходные данные.
Calc Аггрегирование исходных данных и расчёт элементов денежного потока.

Условные обозначения

100% - ссылка на ячейку на листе, относящемуся к блоку Расчёты

100% - ячейка с расчётной формулой

100% - ссылка на внешние файлы

- ячейки, которые нужно заполнить

(!) 100% - ячейки с готовым расчётом

100% - сценарий/ ссылка на сценарий

 Описание

параметры чувствительности и главные результаты.

ключевые показатели.

исходные данные.
ых и расчёт элементов денежного потока.
Project Black
Control Panel

Key results Result Required

Net present value (NPV) (3,841) 1,500 mln RUB
Internal rate of return (IRR) -3.9% 20.0%
Payback period - 8.0 years

Scenarios
1 Macroeconomics
1 Coal price

NPV under different scenarios Macroeconomic scenario

Base Case Optimistic Pessimistic

Price scenario (3,841) 1 2 3

Base Case 1

Pessimistic 2

Optimistic 3

Management forecast 4

IRR under different scenarios Macroeconomic scenario

Base Case Optimistic Pessimistic

Price scenario -3.9% 1 2 3

Base Case 1

Pessimistic 2

Optimistic 3

Management forecast 4

Sensitivity analysis
20 Coal price 0.0%

20 Production 0.0%

20 OPEX 0.0%

20 CAPEX 0.0%

20 USD/RUB 0.0%

20 Discount rate 0.0%

0 Δ Coal price -10.0% -7.5% -5.0% -2.5%

NPV (3,841)

IRR -3.9%

0 Δ Production 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5%

NPV (3,841)

IRR -3.9% #NUM! #NUM! #NUM!

 0 Δ OPEX 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5%
NPV (3,841)

IRR -3.9%

0 Δ CAPEX 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5%

NPV (3,841)

IRR -3.9%

### Δ USD/RUB -10.0% -7.5% -5.0% -2.5%

NPV (3,841)

IRR -3.9%

### Δ Discount rate 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5%

NPV (3,841)

IRR -3.9%
2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0%

-2.5% -5.0% -7.5% -10.0%

-2.5% -5.0% -7.5% -10.0%

-2.5% -5.0% -7.5% -10.0%

2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0%

-0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0%

Project Black
Inputs
Index Indicator Source UoM

1 Macroeconomic Assumptions
CPI_Global Inflation Global Link %
CPI_RUS Inflation Russian Link %
USDRUB Exchange rate (USD/RUB average) Link x

Base Case
Inflation Global Research %
Inflation Russian Research %
Exchange rate (USD/RUB average) Research x

Optimistic
Inflation Global Research %
Inflation Russian Research %
Exchange rate (USD/RUB average) Research x

Pessimistic
Inflation Global Research %
Inflation Russian Research %
Exchange rate (USD/RUB average) Research x

1 Assumptions for netback price

Benchmark price (Hard Coking Coal - HCC) Link USD/oz
Base case Research USD/t
Pessimistic case Research USD/t
Optimistic case Research USD/t
Management forecast Client USD/t

Transportation
CPI_Global Freight rate Japan-Vostochny Research USD/t
CPI_Global Transshipment in Port Vostochny Research USD/t
Railroad transportation to FCA Ozernoye (USD) Calc USD/t
CPI_RUS Railroad transportation to FCA Ozernoye (RUB) Research RUB/t

(=) Sales price at FCA Ozernoye Calc USD/t

(=) Sales price at FCA Ozernoye Calc RUB/t

Coal production
Coal mined/ processed/ sold Client ths t

Discount rate calculation

Risk-free rate Research %
Market risk premium (S&P 500) Research %
Levered beta Calc x
Beta unlevered Damodaran x
Target D/E Damodaran x
Profit tax Research %
Size premium Research %
Cost of equity (USD-originated) Calc %

Conversion from USD to RUB

YTM Russia USD-originated (Россия, 2028) Research %
YTM Russia RUB-originated (ОФЗ 26212) Research %
Cost of equity (RUB-originated) Calc %

Interest rate for non-financial firms (RUB-originated) Research %

 Share of debt (based on target leverage) Calc %
Share of equity (based on target leverage) Calc %
WACC (RUB-originated) Calc %

Discount period Calc x

Cumulative year of the project Calc x
Discount factor
WACC-based discount factor (RUB) Calc x

Unit operating expenses (OPEX)

Variable costs (RUB-originated)
CPI_RUS Mining (per t of coal) Client RUB/t
CPI_RUS Processing (per t of coal) Client RUB/t
CPI_RUS Minerals extraction tax (per t of coal mined) Client RUB/t
Fixed costs (RUB-originated)
CPI_RUS Administrative and commercial Client mln RUB
CPI_RUS Supplementary costs Client mln RUB

Capital expenses (CAPEX) in real 2017 prices

Capitalized mining works ("Горнокапитальные работы") Client mln RUB
Equipment for waste treatment ("Очистное оборудование")
RUB-originated Client mln RUB
USD-originated Client mln USD
Tunneling equipment ("Проходческое оборудование")
RUB-originated Client mln RUB
USD-originated Client mln USD
Design & Engineering works ("Проектно-изыскательные работы") Client mln RUB
Capitalized construction works ("Строительно-монтажные работы") Client mln RUB

Depreciation
Equipment
Initial value (end of period) Calc mln RUB
Rate of depreciation Link %
Residual value (end of period) Calc mln RUB
Infrastructure
Initial value (end of period) Calc mln RUB
Rate of depreciation Link %
Residual value (end of period) Calc mln RUB
Total depreciation Calc mln RUB

Working capital
Accounts receivable Calc mln RUB
Accounts payable Calc mln RUB
Inventories Calc mln RUB

Turnover ratios
Accounts receivable-to-Revenue Link x
Accounts payable-to-Opex Link x
Inventories-to-Revenue Link x
Base 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

105.0% 105.1% 104.4% 104.2% 103.8% 103.6% 103.5% 103.5%

99.2% 101.9% 101.9% 102.0% 102.2% 102.4% 102.2% 102.0%
68.5 68.1 68.0 67.0 66.3 65.8 65.3 64.9

105.0% 105.1% 104.4% 104.2% 103.8% 103.6% 103.5% 103.5%

99.2% 101.9% 101.9% 102.0% 102.2% 102.4% 102.2% 102.0%
68.51 68.12 67.97 66.95 66.31 65.77 65.30 64.88

105.0% 105.1% 104.4% 104.2% 103.8% 103.6% 103.5% 103.5%

99.2% 101.9% 103.1% 102.6% 102.8% 102.7% 103.3% 102.6%
68.51 68.12 74.57 74.05 72.11 72.47 69.90 71.78

105.0% 105.1% 104.4% 104.2% 103.8% 103.6% 103.5% 103.5%

99.2% 101.9% 100.6% 100.8% 101.0% 102.0% 101.1% 100.6%
68.51 68.12 63.57 59.95 62.13 60.82 60.00 58.80

80.0 85.0 94.8 103.2 105.2 112.1 118.5 124.2

80.0 85.0 94.8 103.2 105.2 112.1 118.5 124.2
80.0 85.0 86.3 94.0 95.8 102.2 108.0 113.1
80.0 85.0 102.2 115.3 124.1 117.8 136.8 133.2
80.0 85.0 100.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0

3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1

10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.8
18.8 19.3 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.4 23.0
1,289 1,314 1,340 1,367 1,397 1,430 1,461 1,491

53.8 58.0 67.0 74.4 75.4 81.4 86.8 91.5

3,688 3,950 4,553 4,978 4,998 5,351 5,665 5,936

500 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

3% Россия-2030
6.50%
0.91
0.59
0.68
20%
3.58%
10.30%

4.54%
8.23%
14.19%

13.76%
68.10%
31.90%
12.02%

- - 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

1.00 1.00 0.94 0.84 0.75 0.67 0.60 0.54

2,500 2,479 2,528 2,577 2,628 2,686 2,750 2,810 2,867

879 872 889 906 924 944 967 988 1,008
45 45 45 46 47 48 49 51 52

100 99 101 103 105 107 110 112 115

20 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 23

250 200 700 300 150 150 150 150

- - 1,000 - - - - 250
- - 25 10 - - - -

- - 800 300 - - - 100

- - 10 - - - - 3
- - - - - - - -
- - 150 100 - 20 - 20

900 900
16.7%
450 400

1,500 2,000
10.0%
1,430 1,162
150 182

1,272 58
2,554 989
31 54

0.05
0.05
0.09
2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F

103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

102.1% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2%
64.7 64.6 64.4 64.3 64.1 64.0 63.9 63.7 63.6

103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

102.1% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2% 102.2%
64.70 64.56 64.42 64.28 64.14 64.00 63.86 63.72 63.58

103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

102.5% 103.3% 103.0% 103.4% 102.6% 102.7% 103.3% 102.8% 103.7%
69.20 70.66 72.42 69.08 70.34 68.50 68.76 68.32 71.78

103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

101.9% 101.8% 101.6% 101.4% 101.5% 101.4% 101.5% 101.1% 101.4%
58.51 59.21 58.32 58.49 57.07 56.92 57.41 59.17 58.39

130.5 136.5 139.0 142.0 145.2 148.3 151.6 154.9 158.3

130.5 136.5 139.0 142.0 145.2 148.3 151.6 154.9 158.3
118.9 124.3 126.7 129.4 132.3 135.2 138.1 141.1 144.2
136.7 143.0 145.6 148.8 152.1 155.4 158.8 162.3 165.8
135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0

4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7

14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8
23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 27.8 28.5
1,522 1,555 1,589 1,624 1,660 1,696 1,733 1,771 1,810

97.0 102.0 103.6 105.7 107.8 109.9 112.1 114.4 116.6

6,274 6,584 6,673 6,792 6,913 7,036 7,160 7,287 7,416

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5
7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0

0.48 0.43 0.38 0.34 0.30 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.19

2,927 2,991 3,057 3,123 3,192 3,262 3,333 3,406 3,480

1,029 1,052 1,075 1,098 1,122 1,147 1,172 1,198 1,224
53 54 55 56 57 59 60 61 63

117 120 122 125 128 130 133 136 139

23 24 24 25 26 26 27 27 28

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

- - 500 - - 500 - - 500

- - 2 - - - - - 2

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

- - - - 2 - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 -
2033F 2034F 2035F

103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

102.2% 102.2% 102.2%
63.4 63.3 63.2

103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

102.2% 102.2% 102.2%
63.45 63.31 63.17

103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

103.0% 103.0% 103.1%
70.15 70.21 68.27

103.5% 103.5% 103.5%

100.7% 101.3% 101.6%
56.65 57.25 58.80

161.7 165.3 168.9

161.7 165.3 168.9
147.4 150.6 153.9
169.4 173.2 176.9
135.0 135.0 135.0

5.9 6.1 6.3

19.5 20.2 20.9
29.2 29.9 30.6
1,849 1,890 1,931

118.9 121.3 123.7

7,546 7,679 7,814

1,000 700 500

15.5 16.5 17.5
16.0 17.0 18.0

0.17 0.15 0.14

3,557 3,634 3,714

1,251 1,278 1,306
64 65 67

142 145 149

28 29 30

150 150 150

- - -
- - -

100 100 100

2 - -
- - -
20 - 20
Project Black
Calculations
Index Indicator Source UoM Base 2016A

Revenue
Sales price (FCA basis) Link RUB/t 3,688

Sales volume Link ths t 500

Total revenue Calc mln RUB 1,844

OPEX (operating expenses)

Variable costs
Costs drivers:
Volume of coal mined Link ths t 500

Volume of coal processed Link ths t 500

Unit costs:
Mining costs Link RUB/t 2,479

Processing costs Link RUB/t 872

Minerals extraction tax (MET) Link RUB/t 45

Mining costs Calc mln RUB 1,240

Processing costs Calc mln RUB 436

Minerals extraction tax Calc mln RUB 23

Total variable costs Calc mln RUB 1,698

Fixed costs
Administrative and commercial Link mln RUB 99

Supplementary costs Link mln RUB 20

Total fixed costs Calc mln RUB 119

Investments in working capital

Accounts receivable Calc mln RUB 1,272

Accounts payable Calc mln RUB 2,554

Inventories Calc mln RUB 31

Net working capital (end of period) Calc mln RUB 3,857

Turnover ratios:
Accounts receivable-to-Revenue Link x 0.05

Accounts payable-to-Opex Link x 0.05

Inventories-to-Revenue Link x 0.09

Drivers of investments in working capital:

Revenue Link mln RUB 1,844

Opex Link mln RUB 1,817

Profit tax
Taxable profit Calc mln RUB (123)

Profit tax rate Link % 20% 20%

Accumulated tax losses Calc mln RUB 500

Total profit tax Calc mln RUB -

CAPEX (capital expenses)

By depreciation groups:
Equipment Calc mln RUB -

Infrastructure Calc mln RUB 250

Total CAPEX Calc mln RUB 250

In nominal prices (RUB):

Capitalized mining works Calc mln RUB 250

Equipment for waste treatment Calc mln RUB -

RUB-originated Calc mln RUB -

USD-originated Calc mln RUB -

Tunneling equipment Calc mln RUB -

RUB-originated Calc mln RUB -

USD-originated Calc mln RUB -

Design & Engineering works Calc mln RUB -

Capitalized construction works Calc mln RUB -

In real 2017 prices:

Capitalized mining works ("Горнокапитальные работы") Link mln RUB 250

Equipment for waste treatment ("Очистное оборудование")

RUB-originated Link mln RUB -

USD-originated Link mln USD -

Tunneling equipment ("Проходческое оборудование")

RUB-originated Link mln RUB -

USD-originated Link mln USD -

Design & Engineering works ("Проектно-изыскательные работы Link mln RUB -

Capitalized construction works ("Строительно-монтажные рабо Link mln RUB -

Accumulated imflation:
Inflation Global Calc % 1

Inflation Russian Calc % 1

USD/RUB exchange rate Link x 68.51

Depreciation
Equipment Calc mln RUB

Infrastructure Calc mln RUB

Total depreciation Calc mln RUB 150

Existing PPE (as of valuation date):

Equipment:
Initial value (beginning of period) Calc mln RUB 900

Capex Link mln RUB

Initial value (end of period) Calc mln RUB

Rate of depreciation Link % 16.7% 16.7%

Residual value (beginning of period) Calc mln RUB

Depreciation Calc mln RUB

 Residual value (end of period) Calc mln RUB 450

Infrastructure:
Initial value (beginning of period) Calc mln RUB 1,500

Capex Link mln RUB

Initial value (end of period) Calc mln RUB

Rate of depreciation Link % 10.0% 10.0%

Residual value (beginning of period) Calc mln RUB

Depreciation Calc mln RUB

Residual value (end of period) Calc mln RUB 1,430

New PPE:
Equipment:
Initial value (beginning of period) Link mln RUB

Capex Link mln RUB

Initial value (end of period) Calc mln RUB

Rate of depreciation Link % 16.7% 16.7%

Residual value (beginning of period) Calc mln RUB

Depreciation Calc mln RUB

Residual value (end of period) Calc mln RUB

Infrastructure:
Initial value (beginning of period) Link mln RUB

Capex Link mln RUB

Initial value (end of period) Calc mln RUB

Rate of depreciation Link % 10.0% 10.0%

Residual value (beginning of period) Calc mln RUB

Depreciation Calc mln RUB

Residual value (end of period) Calc mln RUB

In nominal prices (RUB): Available Rooms 37
Occupancy rate 0.764
Rented rooms 28

37
Revenue £5,155,799
Revenue adj. £5,155,799
Costs £4,526,491
EBITDA £169,605
FFE
 EBITDA after aFFE £169,605

Y0 - Year of
Impact of occupancy on cash flow, EUR 2016 renovation Y1 - 2018 Y2 - 2019
(2017)

Scenario 1 (JLL) 169,605 179,711 402,907 375,265

Scenario 2 (JLL)
EBITDA after FF&E 608,912 1,107,526

Capex 5,818,020

Incremental EBITDA change (5,997,731) 206,005 732,261

Cumulative (payback) (5,997,731) (5,791,726) (5,059,465)

Scenario 2 (JLL) at reduced 60% occupancy

EBITDA after FF&E 407,256 71,338

Capex 5,818,020

Incremental EBITDA change (5,997,731) 4,349 (303,927)

Cumulative (5,997,731) (5,993,382) (6,297,310)

Scenario 2 (JLL) at reduced 65% occupancy

EBITDA after FF&E 911,399 589,432

Capex 5,818,020

Incremental EBITDA change (5,997,731) 508,492 214,167

Cumulative (5,997,731) 508,492 214,167

2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

3,950 4,553 4,978 4,998 5,351 5,665 5,936 6,274 6,584

1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
3,950 4,553 5,476 5,998 6,421 6,798 7,123 7,529 7,901

1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

2,528 2,577 2,628 2,686 2,750 2,810 2,867 2,927 2,991

889 906 924 944 967 988 1,008 1,029 1,052
45 45 46 47 48 49 51 52 53

2,528 2,577 2,891 3,223 3,300 3,372 3,440 3,512 3,589

889 906 1,016 1,133 1,160 1,186 1,209 1,235 1,262
45 45 51 57 58 59 61 62 63
3,461 3,528 3,958 4,413 4,518 4,617 4,710 4,809 4,914

101 103 105 107 110 112 115 117 120

20 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 24
121 124 126 129 132 135 138 140 144

58 228 274 300 321 340 356 376 395

989 183 204 227 232 238 242 247 253
54 390 469 513 550 582 610 644 676
1,102 800 947 1,040 1,103 1,159 1,208 1,268 1,324

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09

3,950 4,553 5,476 5,998 6,421 6,798 7,123 7,529 7,901

3,582 3,652 4,085 4,542 4,650 4,752 4,848 4,950 5,058

185 (259) 142 258 673 947 1,106 2,273 2,690

20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
512 475 527 498 447 312 123 - -
 - - - - - - 98 455 538

37 -52 28 52 135 189 221 455 538

- 4,339 1,055 - - - 653 130 134

200 867 416 159 185 167 193 174 201
200 5,206 1,470 159 185 167 846 303 335

200 714 312 159 163 167 170 174 178

- 2,794 728 - - - 284 - -
- 1,019 - - - - 284 - -
- 1,775 728 - - - - - -
- 1,545 326 - - - 369 130 134
- 835 326 - - - 125 130 134
- 710 - - - - 244 - -
- - - - - - - - -
- 153 104 - 22 - 23 - 24

200 700 300 150 150 150 150 150 150

- 1,000 - - - - 250 - -
- 25 10 - - - - - -

- 800 300 - - - 100 100 100

- 10 - - - - 3 - -
- - - - - - - - -
- 150 100 - 20 - 20 - 20

1 104.4% 108.8% 112.9% 117.0% 121.1% 125.3% 129.7% 134.2%

1 101.9% 104.0% 106.3% 108.8% 111.2% 113.4% 115.8% 118.3%

68.12 67.97 66.95 66.31 65.77 65.30 64.88 64.70 64.56

873 1,049 999 899 899 1,008 306 153

287 200 200 200 200 162 - -
182 1,160 1,249 1,199 1,099 1,099 1,170 306 153

900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900

900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900

16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
450 400 250 100 - - - - -
150 150 100 - - - - -
400 250 100 - - - - - -

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
1,430 1,162 962 762 562 362 162 - -
200 200 200 200 200 162 - -
1,162 962 762 562 362 162 - - -

- 4,339 5,394 5,394 5,394 5,394 6,047 1,837

4,339 1,055 - - - 653 130 134
4,339 5,394 5,394 5,394 5,394 6,047 1,837 917
16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
- 3,616 3,772 2,873 1,974 1,075 720 543
723 899 899 899 899 1,008 306 153
3,616 3,772 2,873 1,974 1,075 720 543 525

- 867 1,282 1,442 1,627 1,794 1,986 2,160

867 416 159 185 167 193 174 201
867 1,282 1,442 1,627 1,794 1,986 2,160 2,361
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
- 780 1,068 1,083 1,105 1,092 1,087 1,044
87 128 144 163 179 199 216 236
780 1,068 1,083 1,105 1,092 1,087 1,044 1,009
 65%
53 53 53 53 53
0.62 0.7 0.78 0.78 0.78
33 37 41 41 41

53 53 53 53 53
£6,251,373 £7,253,319 £8,311,927 £8,471,999 8639204
£6,553,859 £6,735,225 £6,926,606 £7,059,999 £7,199,337
£5,517,433 £5,928,194 £6,298,933 £6,420,238 £6,546,949
£1,036,426 £807,031 £627,673 £639,761 £652,388
£125,027 £217,599 £332,477 £338,880 £345,568
 £911,399 £589,432 £295,196 £300,881 £306,820 £306,820

Y3 - 2020 Y4 - 2021 Y5 - 2022 Y6 - 2023

406,362 414,188 414,188 414,188

1,680,517 1,712,881 1,746,687 1,746,687

1,274,155 1,298,693 1,332,499 1,332,499

(3,785,310) (2,486,617) (1,154,118) 178,381

(237,620) (242,196) (246,975) (246,975)

(643,982) (656,384) (661,163) (661,163)

(6,941,292) (7,597,675) (8,258,839) (8,920,002)

295,196 300,881 306,820 306,820

(111,166) (113,307) (107,368) (107,368)

(111,166) (113,307) (107,368) (107,368)
2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F

6,673 6,792 6,913 7,036 7,160 7,287 7,416 7,546 7,679

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 700
8,008 8,151 8,296 8,443 8,592 8,744 8,899 7,546 5,375

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 700

1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,000 700

3,057 3,123 3,192 3,262 3,333 3,406 3,480 3,557 3,634

1,075 1,098 1,122 1,147 1,172 1,198 1,224 1,251 1,278
54 55 56 57 59 60 61 63 64

3,668 3,748 3,830 3,914 4,000 4,087 4,177 3,557 2,544

1,290 1,318 1,347 1,376 1,406 1,437 1,468 1,251 895
65 66 67 69 70 72 74 63 45
5,022 5,132 5,244 5,359 5,476 5,596 5,719 4,870 3,483

122 125 128 130 133 136 139 142 145

24 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 29
147 150 153 157 160 163 167 171 174

400 408 415 422 430 437 445 377 269

258 264 270 276 282 288 294 252 183
685 698 710 723 736 749 762 646 460
1,344 1,369 1,395 1,421 1,447 1,474 1,501 1,275 912

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09

8,008 8,151 8,296 8,443 8,592 8,744 8,899 7,546 5,375

5,169 5,282 5,397 5,516 5,636 5,760 5,886 5,041 3,658

2,533 2,538 2,506 2,511 2,535 2,558 2,561 2,005 1,248

20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
- - - - - - - - -
 507 508 501 502 507 512 512 401 250

507 508 501 502 507 512 512 401 250

923 144 368 799 159 165 1,076 435 183

181 210 189 219 198 229 207 239 216
1,104 354 558 1,019 357 394 1,283 674 399

181 185 189 194 198 202 207 211 216

784 - - 645 - - 906 - -
605 - - 645 - - 689 - -
179 - - - - - 217 - -
139 144 368 154 159 165 171 435 183
139 144 149 154 159 165 171 177 183
- - 220 - - - - 258 -
- - - - - - - - -
- 25 - 26 - 27 - 28 -

150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150

500 - - 500 - - 500 - -

2 - - - - - 2 - -

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

- - 2 - - - - 2 -
- - - - - - - - -
- 20 - 20 - 20 - 20 -

138.9% 143.8% 148.8% 154.0% 159.4% 165.0% 170.8% 176.8% 182.9%

120.9% 123.6% 126.3% 129.0% 131.9% 134.8% 137.7% 140.7% 143.8%

64.42 64.28 64.14 64.00 63.86 63.72 63.58 63.45 63.31

307 330 392 416 421 426 452 501 470

- - - - - - - - -
307 330 392 416 421 426 452 501 470

900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900

900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900

16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
 - - - - - - - - -

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000

10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -

917 1,839 1,983 2,351 2,498 2,528 2,558 2,712 3,003

923 144 368 799 159 165 1,076 435 183
1,839 1,983 2,351 2,498 2,528 2,558 2,712 3,003 2,818
16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7% 16.7%
525 1,141 954 930 1,313 1,052 790 1,415 1,349
307 330 392 416 421 426 452 501 470
1,141 954 930 1,313 1,052 790 1,415 1,349 1,062

2,361 2,543 2,753 2,942 3,162 3,359 3,588 3,795 4,034

181 210 189 219 198 229 207 239 216
2,543 2,753 2,942 3,162 3,359 3,588 3,795 4,034 4,250
10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
1,009 936 871 766 670 532 402 229 65
254 275 294 316 336 359 379 403 425
936 871 766 670 532 402 229 65 (145)
2035F

7,814
500
3,907

500
500

3,714
1,306
65

1,857
653
33
2,543

149
30
178

195
136
334
666

0.05
0.05
0.09

3,907
2,721

818
20%
-
 164

164

189
250
439

220
-
-
-
189
189
-
-
29

150

-
-

100
-
-
20

189.3%
146.9%

63.17

368
-
368

900

900
16.7%
-
-
 -

2,000

2,000
10.0%
-
-
-

2,818
189
2,208
16.7%
1,062
368
883

4,250
250
4,500
10.0%
(145)
450
(345)
Project Black
Results
Index Indicator Source UoM Base 2016A

FCFF (Free Cash Flow to Firm)

Revenue Link mln RUB 1,844

(-) Operating expenses (OPEX) Link mln RUB 1,817

(=) EBITDA Calc mln RUB 27

EBITDA margin Calc % 1.5%

(-) Depreciation Link mln RUB 150

(=) EBIT Calc mln RUB (123)

EBIT margin Calc % -6.7%

(-) Profit tax (FCFF) Link mln RUB -

(=) Net income Calc mln RUB (123)

Net income margin Calc % -6.7%

(-) Capital expenses (CAPEX) Link mln RUB 250

(-) Investments in working capital Link mln RUB 3,857

(+) Depreciation Link mln RUB 150

(=) FCFF Calc mln RUB (4,080)

Discount factor Link x 1.00

Investment metrics
Valuation
Net present value (NPV) Calc mln RUB (3,841)

Internal rate of return (IRR) Calc % -3.88%

Payback period Calc x -

Financial ratios
EBITDA margin Link % 31.5% 1.5%

EBIT margin Link % 21.5% -6.7%

Net income margin Link % 17.2% -6.7%

Revenue growth Calc %

OPEX per tonne of coal Calc RUB/t 3,634

2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F

3,950 4,553 5,476 5,998 6,421 6,798 7,123 7,529 7,901 8,008
3,582 3,652 4,085 4,542 4,650 4,752 4,848 4,950 5,058 5,169

367 901 1,391 1,456 1,772 2,046 2,276 2,579 2,843 2,839
9.3% 19.8% 25.4% 24.3% 27.6% 30.1% 31.9% 34.3% 36.0% 35.5%

182 1,160 1,249 1,199 1,099 1,099 1,170 306 153 307

185 (259) 142 258 673 947 1,106 2,273 2,690 2,533
4.7% -5.7% 2.6% 4.3% 10.5% 13.9% 15.5% 30.2% 34.0% 31.6%

37 (52) 28 52 135 189 221 455 538 507

148 (207) 114 206 538 757 885 1,818 2,152 2,026
3.8% -4.6% 2.1% 3.4% 8.4% 11.1% 12.4% 24.2% 27.2% 25.3%

200 5,206 1,470 159 185 167 846 303 335 1,104
1,102 800 947 1,040 1,103 1,159 1,208 1,268 1,324 1,344
182 1,160 1,249 1,199 1,099 1,099 1,170 306 153 307

(971) (5,053) (1,054) 205 349 530 1 553 645 (115)

1.00 0.94 0.84 0.75 0.67 0.60 0.54 0.48 0.43 0.38

- - - - - - - -

9.3% 19.8% 25.4% 24.3% 27.6% 30.1% 31.9% 34.3% 36.0% 35.5%
4.7% -5.7% 2.6% 4.3% 10.5% 13.9% 15.5% 30.2% 34.0% 31.6%
3.8% -4.6% 2.1% 3.4% 8.4% 11.1% 12.4% 24.2% 27.2% 25.3%
114.2% 15.3% 20.3% 9.5% 7.1% 5.9% 4.8% 5.7% 4.9% 1.4%
3,582 3,652 3,713 3,785 3,875 3,960 4,040 4,125 4,215 4,307
2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F 2032F 2033F 2034F 2035F

8,151 8,296 8,443 8,592 8,744 8,899 7,546 5,375 3,907

5,282 5,397 5,516 5,636 5,760 5,886 5,041 3,658 2,721

2,869 2,898 2,927 2,956 2,985 3,013 2,506 1,717 1,186

35.2% 34.9% 34.7% 34.4% 34.1% 33.9% 33.2% 32.0% 30.4%

330 392 416 421 426 452 501 470 368

2,538 2,506 2,511 2,535 2,558 2,561 2,005 1,248 818

31.1% 30.2% 29.7% 29.5% 29.3% 28.8% 26.6% 23.2% 20.9%

508 501 502 507 512 512 401 250 164

2,031 2,005 2,009 2,028 2,047 2,049 1,604 998 654

24.9% 24.2% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.0% 21.3% 18.6% 16.8%

354 558 1,019 357 394 1,283 674 399 439

1,369 1,395 1,421 1,447 1,474 1,501 1,275 912 666
330 392 416 421 426 452 501 470 368

638 444 (14) 645 605 (283) 156 157 (83)

0.34 0.30 0.27 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.14

- - - - - - - - -

35.2% 34.9% 34.7% 34.4% 34.1% 33.9% 33.2% 32.0% 30.4%

31.1% 30.2% 29.7% 29.5% 29.3% 28.8% 26.6% 23.2% 20.9%
24.9% 24.2% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.0% 21.3% 18.6% 16.8%
1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% -15.2% -28.8% -27.3%
4,402 4,498 4,596 4,697 4,800 4,905 5,041 5,226 5,442
Key results check
Name Value Requirement Check (yes/no)
NPV (mln RUB) (3,841) 1,500 No

IRR -3.9% 20.0% No

Payback period - 10 Yes

Average EBITDA margin 31.5% 15.0% Yes

Main assumptions
Name 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F
Benchmark price (USD/t 85 95 103 105 112 118

Production volume (ths t 1,000 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,200

OPEX (RUB/t) 3,582 3,652 3,713 3,785 3,875 3,960

Capex (mln RUB) 200 5,206 1,470 159 185 167

Tornado diagram - значения NPV при отклонении предпосылок от базового сценария (Base Case)
Δ CAPEX (+/-10 -3.9% 0.0% -3.9%
Δ Production (+/ #NUM! #NUM! 6.3%
Δ Coal price (+/ -3.9% 0.0% -3.9%
Δ OPEX (+/-10% -3.9% 0.0% -3.9%
Δ USD/RUB (+/- -3.9% 0.0% -3.9%

Δ USD/RUB (+/-10%)

Δ OPEX (+/-10%)

Δ Coal price (+/-10%)

Δ Production (+/-10%)

Δ CAPEX (+/-10%)

-5% -4% -4% -3% -3% -2% -2% -1% 0% 0%

IRR under different scenarios

Macroeconomic scenario
Price scenario
Base Case Pessimistic Optimistic
Base Case
Pessimistic
Optimistic
Management