(millones S/ 2007)

Consumo Privado % PBIR % LN(CP) LN(PBIR) TIEMPO

T180 24238.8480739705 36357.4778051 10.09571 10.50116 1
T280 24316.1378632946 0.318867 43102.1102114 18.55088 10.0989 10.67133 2
T380 27480.4142594149 13.01307 42344.4829202 -1.75775 10.22123 10.65359 3
T480 28586.5998033201 4.02536 45791.9290633 8.141429 10.26069 10.73186 4
T181 28249.5746683219 -1.178962 39025.8745279 -14.77565 10.24883 10.57198 5
T281 26248.2321033902 -7.084505 45857.8860112 17.50636 10.17535 10.7333 6
T381 29345.9621028946 11.80167 45002.690184 -1.864883 10.28691 10.71448 7
T481 28596.2311253933 -2.554801 47014.5492769 4.470531 10.26103 10.75821 8
T182 27416.0377516322 -4.127094 40474.8475261 -13.90995 10.21888 10.60844 9
T282 25225.9543025731 -7.98833 46211.0883313 14.17236 10.13563 10.74098 10
T382 29457.2530713548 16.77359 43888.7979944 -5.025396 10.2907 10.68941 11
T482 27626.7548744399 -6.214083 45932.2661482 4.656013 10.22654 10.73492 12
T183 26792.4320578985 -3.019981 36438.0890791 -20.66995 10.19587 10.50337 13
T283 25383.6373825246 -5.258181 41011.2236254 12.55042 10.14186 10.6216 14
T383 26468.4773826716 4.273777 39106.7855097 -4.6437 10.18371 10.57405 15
T483 24944.4531769052 -5.757884 41579.9017858 6.324008 10.12441 10.63537 16
T184 25523.3719876054 2.320832 35508.3647634 -14.6021 10.14735 10.47752 17
T284 24516.3285666667 -3.945574 41849.2517685 17.85745 10.10709 10.64183 18
T384 27979.9275378359 14.12772 41510.7544244 -0.808849 10.23924 10.63371 19
T484 28425.3719078921 1.592014 44973.6290437 8.342114 10.25504 10.71383 20
T185 28134.2750576487 -1.024074 39428.5093924 -12.32971 10.24474 10.58224 21
T285 25634.6875217438 -8.884492 43937.5301173 11.43594 10.1517 10.69052 22
T385 27233.0892841985 6.235308 40849.1466686 -7.029033 10.21219 10.61764 23
T485 27304.948136409 0.263866 43003.8138217 5.274693 10.21482 10.66904 24
T186 28643.1771329012 4.901049 38202.4057622 -11.16507 10.26267 10.55065 25
T286 28289.355348039 -1.235274 46949.8431071 22.89761 10.25024 10.75684 26
T386 33139.8821329957 17.14612 47017.4761581 0.144054 10.40849 10.75827 27
T486 34490.5853860641 4.075764 50811.2749726 8.068912 10.44844 10.83587 28
T187 35927.5001397457 4.166107 44533.3944669 -12.35529 10.48926 10.70399 29
T287 31107.3849496718 -13.41623 51060.1370172 14.65584 10.3452 10.84076 30
T387 36587.4269820971 17.61653 51599.5308395 1.056389 10.50746 10.85127 31
T487 35018.6879284853 -4.287645 53584.9376764 3.847723 10.46364 10.88902 32
T188 34175.5655918815 -2.407635 43968.8479204 -17.94551 10.43927 10.69124 33
T288 30688.6826917864 -10.20285 49303.0158055 12.1317 10.33165 10.80574 34
T388 33892.0448896766 10.43825 46027.2197028 -6.64421 10.43094 10.73699 35
T488 28325.7068266556 -16.42373 42522.9165712 -7.613545 10.25153 10.6578 36
T189 24920.4031741131 -12.02195 35208.3219411 -17.20154 10.12344 10.46904 37
T289 23229.0365765236 -6.787076 39867.6024196 13.23346 10.05316 10.59332 38
T389 27770.505205864 19.55083 40356.296784 1.225793 10.23173 10.6055 39
T489 30399.0550434993 9.465258 44003.7788554 9.038198 10.32217 10.69203 40
T190 28405.8036254578 -6.556952 40440.5082684 -8.097647 10.25435 10.60759 41
T290 26295.6790137045 -7.428498 40316.935669 -0.305566 10.17716 10.60453 42
T390 24792.3579408039 -5.716989 33934.5106547 -15.83063 10.11829 10.43219 43
T490 26241.1594200338 5.843742 36800.0454079 8.444308 10.17508 10.51325 44
T191 25969.7891435481 -1.03414 36289.6566639 -1.386924 10.16469 10.49929 45
T291 27033.7560992951 4.096941 40194.3657052 10.75984 10.20484 10.60148 46
T391 28476.7212420046 5.337642 39444.3286246 -1.866025 10.25684 10.58265 47
T491 28184.7335151522 -1.025356 38925.6490063 -1.314966 10.24654 10.56941 48
T192 28360.223274549 0.622641 38553.8855249 -0.95506 10.25274 10.55981 49
T292 26637.2995903477 -6.075141 39420.0979406 2.246758 10.19007 10.58203 50
T392 25928.3959019444 -2.66132 36833.0709861 -6.562711 10.16309 10.51415 51
T492 27926.0812331589 7.704624 39209.9455484 6.453099 10.23732 10.57669 52
T193 26753.4337120008 -4.199112 38458.7714332 -1.915774 10.19442 10.55734 53
T293 27582.5752828766 3.099197 41646.5671945 8.288865 10.22494 10.63697 54
T393 29633.4274847242 7.435318 40683.6662428 -2.312078 10.29666 10.61358 55
T493 29710.5635203983 0.260301 41303.9951295 1.524762 10.29926 10.62871 56
T194 29220.9309045502 -1.648009 43373.677412 5.010853 10.28264 10.67761 57
T294 31996.9619653845 9.500146 46709.9489503 7.691927 10.3734 10.75171 58
T394 30626.9686703946 -4.281636 45094.0649145 -3.4594 10.32964 10.71651 59
T494 32588.1384596707 6.403408 46865.9800434 3.929375 10.3917 10.75505 60
T195 32192.3724747863 -1.214448 47280.4687615 0.884413 10.37948 10.76385 61
T295 33142.433185064 2.951198 50715.5342261 7.265295 10.40857 10.83399 62
T395 35083.8569715694 5.857819 48795.6752649 -3.785544 10.4655 10.7954 63
T495 35856.3373685803 2.201811 48744.3131845 -0.105259 10.48728 10.79434 64
T196 33438.2089814629 -6.743936 47884.6254354 -1.763668 10.41745 10.77655 65
T296 34018.8741852212 1.736532 51913.6802841 8.414089 10.43467 10.85734 66
T396 36007.0387100445 5.844298 50072.6007893 -3.546425 10.49147 10.82123 67
T496 36036.8781232715 0.082871 51138.3832152 2.128474 10.4923 10.84229 68
T197 34934.5689744766 -3.058836 50364.8714655 -1.512585 10.46123 10.82705 69
T297 35514.1005788347 1.658906 56186.4675773 11.55884 10.47769 10.93643 70
T397 36993.2930481551 4.165085 53279.5825537 -5.173639 10.51849 10.88331 71
T497 37113.0373985335 0.323692 54197.3697925 1.722587 10.52172 10.90039 72
T198 34159.5568428462 -7.958067 51486.8762911 -5.001153 10.4388 10.84908 73
T298 35324.917195768 3.411521 54478.7931775 5.811028 10.47234 10.90557 74
T398 36279.1177888912 2.701211 53514.8455471 -1.7694 10.499 10.88771 75
T498 35934.4081724946 -0.95016 53709.4783769 0.363699 10.48945 10.89134 76
T199 35109.7497900924 -2.294899 51214.6336371 -4.645073 10.46623 10.84378 77
T299 35132.2206002121 0.064002 55517.7810132 8.402183 10.46687 10.92446 78
T399 35563.3920598575 1.227282 53196.089808 -4.181888 10.47907 10.88174 79
T499 33860.637549838 -4.787942 56448.2361722 6.113506 10.43001 10.94108 80
T100 34941.6169915863 3.192437 54674.8223764 -3.141664 10.46143 10.90916 81
T200 35361.2981507339 1.201093 58255.5507054 6.549136 10.47337 10.97259 82
T300 36160.9121008824 2.261269 54621.7511352 -6.237688 10.49573 10.90819 83
T400 36727.1727567974 1.565947 54654.5831317 0.060108 10.51127 10.90879 84
T101 35365.178041394 -3.708412 51760.3669762 -5.295468 10.47348 10.85438 85
T201 36088.8361387899 2.046245 58431.0640912 12.88765 10.49374 10.9756 86
T301 36684.398452901 1.650267 56119.6473108 -3.955801 10.51011 10.93524 87
T401 36490.5873669151 -0.52832 57268.4973724 2.047144 10.50481 10.95551 88
T102 37166.1463897054 1.851324 55137.741199 -3.720643 10.52315 10.91759 89
T202 37694.3745639918 1.421262 62307.2267834 13.00286 10.53727 11.03983 90
T302 38481.146672972 2.08724 58404.3544653 -6.263916 10.55792 10.97515 91
T402 38332.3323733308 -0.38672 59923.6246813 2.601296 10.55405 11.00083 92
T103 37520.5468374371 -2.117757 58249.270141 -2.794148 10.53264 10.97249 93
T203 38830.8734738917 3.492291 65202.4881112 11.937 10.56697 11.08525 94
T303 39644.7668182747 2.095995 60551.6834731 -7.132864 10.58771 11.01125 95
T403 39490.8128703965 -0.388334 61589.1720278 1.713393 10.58382 11.02824 96
T104 39277.1525205307 -0.541038 60913.8155745 -1.096551 10.5784 11.01722 97
T204 40053.8502680755 1.97748 67639.7128673 11.04166 10.59798 11.12195 98
T304 40861.6153041885 2.016698 63145.7528507 -6.643967 10.61795 11.0532 99
T404 40576.3819072053 -0.698047 66070.5049406 4.631748 10.61094 11.09848 100
T105 40601.0209640177 0.060723 64340.8894128 -2.617833 10.61155 11.07195 101
T205 41347.8976343276 1.839551 71310.3676199 10.83211 10.62978 11.1748 102
T305 42411.0974151885 2.571351 67229.8261869 -5.722227 10.65517 11.11587 103
T405 42293.9839864662 -0.276139 71090.0706673 5.741863 10.6524 11.1717 104
T106 42939.814766869 1.527004 69670.7640688 -1.996491 10.66755 11.15154 105
T206 43935.4254288363 2.318619 75823.9354938 8.831784 10.69048 11.23617 106
T306 45099.6791076646 2.64992 72806.2690644 -3.979834 10.71663 11.19556 107
T406 45031.08069663 -0.152104 76296.8621834 4.794358 10.71511 11.24239 108
T107 46181 2.553612 73353.8223477 -3.857354 10.74032 11.20305 109
T207 47902 3.726641 80625.6306874 9.913333 10.77691 11.29757 110
T307 48878 2.037493 80689.0812533 0.078698 10.79708 11.29836 111
T407 49355 0.975899 85024.4647116 5.372949 10.80679 11.35069 112
T108 50198.747 1.709547 80813.1005886 -4.95312 10.82375 11.29989 113
T208 53698.142 6.97108 89146.4428727 10.31187 10.89113 11.39804 114
T308 53716.922 0.034973 88439.8384468 -0.792633 10.89148 11.39008 115
T408 51822.75 -3.526211 90523.6217677 2.356159 10.85558 11.41337 116
T109 51955.703145 0.256554 82894.9332648 -8.42729 10.85815 11.32533 117
T209 54288.821562 4.490592 88427.1788757 6.673804 10.90207 11.38993 118
T309 55382.146582 2.013904 88282.9842512 -0.163066 10.92201 11.3883 119
T409 54258.41925 -2.029043 92978.9204259 5.319186 10.90151 11.44013 120
T110 55488.69095886 2.26743 87418.2070661 -5.980617 10.92393 11.37846 121
T210 59391.970788828 7.03437 96887.261514 10.8319 10.99191 11.4813 122
T310 61252.654119692 3.132887 96918.8232072 0.032576 11.02276 11.48163 123
T410 59358.7106595 -3.092019 101155.707814 4.371581 10.99135 11.52442 124
T111 60704.6279089928 2.26743 94996.2820664 -6.089054 11.01378 11.46159 125
T211 64618.4642182449 6.447344 102176.041851 7.557938 11.07626 11.53445 126
T311 64560.2974421554 -0.090016 102605.532138 0.420343 11.07535 11.53865 127
T411 62623.4397457725 -3.000076 107274.12707 4.550042 11.04489 11.58314 128
T112 65354.6024068217 4.361247 100668.839989 -6.157391 11.08758 11.51959 129
T212 69051.2908636165 5.656355 107960.878591 7.243591 11.1426 11.58952 130
T312 69014.9579656641 -0.052617 109624.762972 1.541192 11.14208 11.60482 131
T412 67883.8086844174 -1.638991 113018.504355 3.09578 11.12555 11.63531 132
T113 69022.8607331908 1.677944 105427.636256 -6.716483 11.14219 11.56578 133
T213 73017.1352689384 5.786886 114690.341451 8.785842 11.19845 11.64999 134
T313 72824.0951147699 -0.264377 115431.136654 0.645909 11.1958 11.65643 135
T413 71993.0706982762 -1.141139 120899.603573 4.737428 11.18433 11.70272 136
T114 72455.1024387793 0.641773 110643.304155 -8.483319 11.19072 11.61407 137
T214 76111.0138846889 5.045761 116939.263669 5.690321 11.23995 11.66941 138
T314 75378.8698859967 -0.961942 117592.103194 0.558272 11.23028 11.67498 139
T414 74099.6923681546 -1.696997 122201.77778 3.920055 11.21317 11.71343 140
T115 75061.9622085512 1.298615 112788.297276 -7.703227 11.22607 11.63327 141
T215 79052.6279313876 5.316495 120660.083839 6.979258 11.27787 11.70073 142
T315 78593.9779792936 -0.580183 121314.563225 0.542416 11.27205 11.70614 143
T415 77208.8402805259 -1.762397 127913.433879 5.439471 11.25427 11.75911 144
T116 77895.8097680193 0.889755 117962.564936 -7.779378 11.26313 11.67812 145
T216 81746.2745125591 4.943096 125338.813851 6.253042 11.31138 11.73878 146
T316 81879.1538081232 0.162551 127090.948302 1.397918 11.313 11.75266 147
T416 79862.1131292183 -2.463436 131832.412757 3.730765 11.28806 11.78929 148
T117 79642.7157970916 -0.27472 120628.115684 -8.498894 11.28531 11.70047 149
T217 84138.9605811349 5.645519 128584.248906 6.595588 11.34023 11.76434 150
T317 84035.2381272271 -0.123275 130568.803396 1.543388 11.33899 11.77966 151
T417 82053.5125581309 -2.358208 134873.86815 3.297162 11.31513 11.8121 152
T118 82163.6577603097 0.134236 124393.395952 -7.770573 11.31647 11.7312 153
T218 88400.1466772597 7.590325 135728.900705 9.112626 11.38963 11.81841 154
T318 86834.0098980211 -1.771645 133824.189614 -1.40332 11.37175 11.80428 155
T418 85143.6378056429 -1.946671 141136.392856 5.464037 11.35209 11.85748 156
T119 84792.8948086396 -0.411943 127480.747473 -9.675496 11.34797 11.75572 157
T219 90583.3130291303 6.828896 137356.313471 7.746712 11.41403 11.83033 158
T319 89687.3286262361 -0.989127 138138.470727 0.569437 11.40408 11.83601 159
T419 87683.4765227142 -2.234264 143747.273246 4.060276 11.38149 11.87581 160
T120 83341.5380538615 -4.951832 123031.327897 -14.41137 11.3307 11.72019 161
 a.
D2 D2*TIEMPO D3 D3*TIEMPO Resumen 𝐶𝑃=β1+β2∗𝑃𝐵𝐼𝑅+𝑢
1 1 0 0
1 2 0 0 Estadísticas de la regresión
1 3 0 0 Coeficiente de cor 0.987581
1 4 0 0 Coeficiente de de 0.975316
a. La variable PBIR influye de ma
1 5 0 0 R^2 ajustado 0.975161 crecimiento del CP dada su pen
1 6 0 0 Error típico 0.06316 estadísticamente significativo ya
1 7 0 0 Observaciones 161 PBIR es alto y su proabilidad baj
1 8 0 0
1 9 0 0 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
1 10 0 0 Grados de Suma
libertad
de
Promedio
cuadrados
de los cuadrados
1 11 0 0 Regresión 1 25.0619 25.0619
1 12 0 0 Residuos 159 0.634274 0.003989
1 13 0 0 Total 160 25.69618
1 14 0 0
1 15 0 0 CoeficientesError típicoEstadístico t
1 16 0 0 Intercepción 0.355425 0.129653 2.741361
1 17 0 0 LN(PBIR) 0.928844 0.011719 79.26237
1 18 0 0
1 19 0 0 C. 𝐶𝑃=β1+β2𝐷2𝑡+β3𝐷3𝑡+λ1𝑌𝑡+λ2𝐷2𝑡𝑌𝑡+λ
1 20 0 0 Resumen 𝐷2𝑡=1 1980.1-1990.4
1 21 0 0 𝐷2𝑡=0 Otro
1 22 0 0 Estadísticas de la regresión
1 23 0 0 Coeficiente de cor 0.963489
c. La tasa de crecimiento promed
1 24 0 0 Coeficiente de de 0.928312 es de -0.0003, en 1991.1-2000.4 e
1 25 0 0 R^2 ajustado 0.925274 0.01544.
1 26 0 0 Error típico 0.0738 Las diferencias son estadísticame
que el t de student en las variable
1 27 0 0 Observaciones 124 bajas; es decir es estadísticament
1 28 0 0 confianza de 1%.
1 29 0 0 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
1 30 0 0 Grados de Suma
libertad
de
Promedio
cuadrados
de los cuadrados
1 31 0 0 Regresión 5 8.32235 1.66447
1 32 0 0 Residuos 118 0.642689 0.005447
1 33 0 0 Total 123 8.965039
1 34 0 0
1 35 0 0 CoeficientesError típicoEstadístico t
1 36 0 0 Intercepción 9.572886 0.106279 90.07355
1 37 0 0 TIEMPO 0.015442 0.001011 15.27587
1 38 0 0 D2 1.093443 0.108662 10.06275
1 39 0 0 D2*TIEMPO -0.015697 0.001338 -11.73384
1 40 0 0 D3 0.45917 0.12523 3.666621
1 41 0 0 D3*TIEMPO -0.0040 0.00143 -2.83157
1 42 0 0 INTERC. TASA DE CREC
1 43 0 0 1980.1-1990.4 10.66633 -0.000255
1 44 0 0 19991.2000.4 10.03206 0.0114
0 0 1 45 2001.1-2010.4 9.572886 0.015442
0 0 1 46
0 0 1 47
0 0 1 48
0 0 1 49
0 0 1 50
0 0 1 51
0 0 1 52
0 0 1 53
0 0 1 54
0 0 1 55
0 0 1 56
0 0 1 57
0 0 1 58
0 0 1 59
0 0 1 60
0 0 1 61
0 0 1 62
0 0 1 63
0 0 1 64
0 0 1 65
0 0 1 66
0 0 1 67
0 0 1 68
0 0 1 69
0 0 1 70
0 0 1 71
0 0 1 72
0 0 1 73
0 0 1 74
0 0 1 75
0 0 1 76
0 0 1 77
0 0 1 78
0 0 1 79
0 0 1 80
0 0 1 81
0 0 1 82
0 0 1 83
0 0 1 84
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
=β1+β2∗𝑃𝐵𝐼𝑅+𝑢

a variable PBIR influye de manera positiva en la tasa de

imiento del CP dada su pendiente positiva, además es
dísticamente significativo ya que el t de student del
R es alto y su proabilidad baja.

F Valor crítico de F
6282.524 1E-129

Probabilidad
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
0.00682 0.099361 0.611489 0.099361 0.611489
1E-129 0.9057 0.951988 0.9057 0.951988

3𝐷3𝑡+λ1𝑌𝑡+λ2𝐷2𝑡𝑌𝑡+λ3𝐷3𝑡𝑌𝑡+𝑢𝑖
1980.1-1990.4 𝐷3𝑡=1 1991.1-2000.4
𝐷3𝑡=0 Otro

tasa de crecimiento promedio trimestral para el periodo 1980.1-1990.4

-0.0003, en 1991.1-2000.4 es de 0.0114 y en 2001.1-2010.4 es de
44.
ferencias son estadísticamente significativas ya que podemos observar
l t de student en las variables resaltadas son altos y su probabilidades
; es decir es estadísticamente siginificastiva aún con un nivel de
anza de 1%.

F Valor crítico de F
305.6029 9.335E-66

Probabilidad
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
1.25E-110 9.362426 9.783346 9.362426 9.783346
9.871E-30 0.01344 0.017444 0.01344 0.017444
1.423E-17 0.878262 1.308625 0.878262 1.308625
1.524E-21 -0.018346 -0.013048 -0.018346 -0.013048
0.00037 0.211181 0.707159 0.211181 0.707159
0.005448 -0.006879 -0.001217 -0.006879 -0.001217