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President Obama
President Obama’ss $4 Trillion Deficit
$4 Trillion Deficit
Reduction Framework
5/09/2011
1
A Balanced and Fair Economic Strategy to Ensure We Live Within Our
Means
• Occurring over 12 years or less
$ 4 Trillion in Deficit • Phased in to protect economic recovery
• Will reduce deficits as a share of our economy to
Reduction about 2.5% of GDP by 2015
• If, in 2014, debt to GDP ratio is not projected to decline
by the end of the decade, the debt cap mechanism is
triggered
Debt Cap • Across the board reductions in direct spending and
spending through the tax code while exempting Social
spending through the tax code while exempting Social
Security, Medicare benefits and low income programs
Balance Between
Between • $3
$3 of spending cuts and interest savings for every $1
f di di i f $1
of tax reform that contributes to deficit reduction
Spending Cuts and • Shared sacrifice from all, including ending the Bush
tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.
Tax Reform
Tax Reform
2
President Obama’s Approach Reduces the Deficit by $4 Trillion over
the Next 12 Years
$770B in
Non‐Security
Discretionary
Spending
$1 Trillion
$400B in
From lower interest
S
Security
i payments on the
payments on the
Spending $2 Trillion debt
From reductions in
domestic & security
spending
$1 Trillion
$480B in
Medicare and
From tax
Medicaid reform
Savings
$360B in
Other
Mandatory
Savings
3
Praise for the President’s Fiscal Framework
We are encouraged that the President has embraced a balanced, comprehensive approach to deficit reduction similar to that outlined in the
Fiscal Commission report. We believe that only an approach which includes all areas of the budget can reach the broad bipartisan agreement
necessary to enact a real and responsible deficit reduction plan. The framework he put forward today represents another step forward in the
process.
Erskine Bowles & Alan Simpson, Fiscal Commission Co‐Chairs
President Obama’s proposed framework is a big step toward the compromise we need to achieve fiscal sustainability. The President has made it
clear that he supports a comprehensive plan for long‐term deficit reduction, and his framework provides another credible approach to tackling the
key drivers of our long‐term debt. The proposal put forth by the President for bipartisan negotiations with representatives of both houses of
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Congress led by the Vice President is a call to action to our elected officials to come together to develop and implement a balanced, comprehensive
plan to secure our economic future.
Peter Peterson, Chairman of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
President Obama should be commended for his decision to demonstrate more leadership in connection with our nation's structural deficit
challenge His fiscal strategy recognizes that how we resolve of fiscal challenge involves key questions about what type of future we want to
challenge. His fiscal strategy recognizes that how we resolve of fiscal challenge involves key questions about what type of future we want to
have as a country and society. It also recognizes that everything must be on the table and everyone must be at the table in order to successfully
address this challenge.
David M. Walker, Founder And CEO Of The Comeback America Initiative, And Former U.S. Comptroller General
The President’s call for a concrete plan to stabilize the debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and for such a plan to be agreed upon by the end of June, is an
important addition to the current debate over fiscal issues in Washington. It returns the policy discussion to the hard‐fought, bipartisan
agreement on principles laid out by the President’s own fiscal commission in December.
Robert L. Bixby, Executive Director of the Concord Coalition
It is great that the President laid out a broad proposal for bringing down deficits and debt The White House is showing the courage needed to look
It is great that the President laid out a broad proposal for bringing down deficits and debt. The White House is showing the courage needed to look
at each area of the budget, and has now elevated deficit reduction to the top issue for lawmakers to work on together. The need to increase the
debt ceiling in a responsible way that helps move us toward enacting a complete plan to reduce our deficits is quickly approaching. It is thus
extremely important that this discussion get underway.
Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
4
Overview of the President’s Framework
Relative to OMB Baseline: $4 Trillion in Deficit Reduction Over the Next 12 Years
10 Years 12 Years
Spending Cuts $1.5 Trillion $2.01 Trillion
Security Discretionary $290 Billion $400 Billion
T t l D fi it R d ti
Total Deficit Reduction $2 9 Trillion
$2.9 T illi $4 T illi
$4 Trillion
5
Discretionary Spending: $1.2 Trillion in deficit reduction over
12 years
Non‐Security Savings Equal to the Fiscal Commission’s, While Investing In Our Future:
• Builds on the savings from the FY11 budget to cutting non‐security
spending to levels consistent with what the Fiscal Commission
Over 12 years, a total of recommended over the next decade; reducing non‐security
discretionary spending to its lowest level as share of the economy
$770 billion in deficit
$770 billion in deficit since Eisenhower
Still ensures that we continue to make the investments we need
reduction. •
to win the future and not threaten the economic recovery.
Additional Discipline on Security Spending While Keeping America Safe:
• SSecretary Gates has shown over the last two years that there is
t G t h h th l t t th t th i
substantial waste and duplication in our security budget that we
can and should eliminate—proposing savings of $400 billion in
Over 12 years, savings current and future defense spending.
of $400 billion
of $400 billion • As part of a comprehensive deficit reduction framework, the
As part of a comprehensive deficit reduction framework the
President is proposing going beyond elimination of waste and
improvement of efficiency by conducting a fundamental review of
America’s missions, capabilities, and our role in a changing world.
6
Health Care: Builds on the Savings in the Affordable Care Act
Health Care Savings Timeline :
2023:
Another $140 billion in savings – for a total
of $480 billion saved on top of ACA savings
2021:
2021 2033
2033:
Another $340 billion saved In the second decade the Framework will save
another $1 trillion in addition to the $1 trillion
in addition to $200 billion
from the ACA
from the ACA
Saves $340 Billion over the next 10 years on top of the $200 Billion saved in the ACA
Holding Medicare cost growth per
2 beneficiary to GDP per capita plus Bend the long‐term cost curve through strengthening the Independent Payment Advisory
Board (IPAB) with a more ambitious target for savings.
0.5 percent beginning in 2018.
Combined Medicare savings
3 of at least $200 billion over
Reduce Medicare’s excessive spending on prescription drugs and lower drug premiums for
beneficiaries without shifting costs to seniors or privatizing Medicare.
10 years
7
Health Care: More Tools to Save Costs and Improve Quality
• Under current law, States face a patchwork of different Federal payment contributions for Medicaid and the Children’s
Reforming the Health Insurance Program (CHIP).
• The President’s framework would replace the current complicated Federal matching formulas with a single matching
Federal‐State rate for all program spending that rewards States for efficiency and automatically increases if a recession forces
partnerships to
partnerships to enrollment and State costs to rise
enrollment and State costs to rise.
• In addition, the President has called on the National Governors Association (NGA) to make recommendations for ways
strengthen Medicaid; to reform and strengthen Medicaid, and the framework will consider the ideas that its Task Force produces. The
President also supports reform of Medicaid to incentivize more efficient, higher quality, care for high‐cost beneficiaries,
promote efficiency, & including those who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.
accountability • These nine million beneficiaries comprise 15 percent of Medicaid enrollment but consume nearly 40 percent of total
Medicaid spending.
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• The two goals of this new Partnership are: preventing patients from getting injured or sicker while they are in the
Improving patient hospital and helping patients heal without complication.
• Achieving the initiative’s goal would mean more than 1.6 million patients will recover from illness without a
safety preventable complication, reducing costs by up to $50 billion in Medicare and billions more in Medicaid over the next
10 years.
• Limit excessive payments for prescription drugs by leveraging Medicare’s purchasing power – similar to what was called
Cutting unnecessary for by the bipartisan Fiscal Commission.
prescription drug
p p g • Speed up the availability of generic biologics, and prohibit brand‐name companies from entering into “pay for delay”
agreements with generic companies. And, implement Medicaid management of high prescribers and users of
spending prescription drugs.
• Clamp down on States’ use of provider taxes to lower their own spending while not providing additional health services
Reducing abuse and
Reducing abuse and through Medicaid.
h h di id
increasing • Recover erroneous payments from Medicare Advantage; establish upper limits on Medicaid payments for durable
medical equipment.
accountability • Take other actions to improve program integrity.
8
Other Mandatory Spending
A Target of $360 Billion in Savings over 12 Years
• Reforms to mandatory programs should protect and strengthen the safety net for low‐
income families and other vulnerable Americans.
• Outside of health care, comprehensive deficit reduction must include savings in other
mandatory programs.
• The President has proposed measures to reform agricultural subsidies, shore up the
h d h d f l l b d h h
federal pension insurance system, restore solvency to the federal unemployment
insurance trust fund, and enact anti‐fraud measures.
• The Fiscal Commission and other bipartisan efforts have put forward additional
proposals that should be considered as part of a comprehensive deficit reduction effort
to meet this target.
9
Tax Reform: $1 Trillion in Deficit Reduction While Moving
Toward A Fairer and Simpler System
We Cannot Afford to Continue the Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthiest Americans & and We
Need Tax Reform to Support Economic Growth
• The President is calling on Congress to undertake comprehensive tax reform that
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produces a system which is simpler, more fair, has fewer loopholes, and is not rigged in
favor of those who can afford lawyers and accountants to game it.
• He believes borrowing nearly $1 trillion to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest
He believes borrowing nearly $1 trillion to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest
Americans isn’t our most urgent national priority and only makes deficits worse.
• In addition, he also supports efforts to build on the Fiscal Commission’s goal of
reducing tax expenditures so that there is enough savings to both lower rates and
lower the deficit by $1 trillion. Reform should be designed to ask more of those who
can afford it while protecting the middle class and promoting economic growth.
• In addition, as he explained in the State of the Union, the President is continuing his
effort to reform our outdated corporate tax code to enhance our economic
competitiveness and encourage investment in the United States. By eliminating
loopholes, reducing distortions and leveling the playing field in our corporate tax code,
we can use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate for the first time in 25 years
without adding to the deficit.
10
Locking in Debt Reduction
Locking in Debt Reduction
Locking in Debt Reduction
The President’s framework locks in debt reduction through a debt cap that targets what matters—debt
reduction. Unlike a spending cap, a debt cap puts us on a path toward fiscal responsibility—and would
not spending cuts to simply go to pay for more tax breaks for the well off.
• Debt reduction under the President’s framework. The President’s framework is projected to reduce the
deficit to 2.5 percent by 2015 and puts deficits on a declining path toward close to 2.0% of GDP toward the
end of the decade. This will begin to reduce the debt as a share of the economy.
• Debt cap. To lock‐in this debt reduction and to give Congress even greater reason to act, we are calling for:
A debt cap that will ensure that our nation’s debt is on a declining path as a share of our economy. If by
2014, budget projections do not show that the debt‐to‐GDP ratio is declining in the second half of the
, g p j g
decade, the failsafe will trigger an across the board spending reduction, including on spending through
the tax code.
The trigger will ensure that deficits as a share of the economy average no more than 2.8% of GDP in
the second half of the decade.
Consistent with prior fiscal enforcement mechanisms put in place by Presidents Reagan, George H.W.
Bush and Clinton, the trigger would not apply to Social Security, low‐income programs, or Medicare
benefits
benefits.
11
Global Spending Caps Are Unbalanced, Threaten Core Investments and
Commitments, and Do Not Ensure Deficit Reduction
Global Spending Caps
Global Spending Caps
The CAP Act (Corker McCaskill) and other global spending caps would force cuts to investments in our
Nation’s future, as well as in our core commitments to the Nation’s seniors and most vulnerable
citizens. And, it may not even reduce the deficit—since these spending cuts could just be used to pay
fo add t o a ta b ea s.
for additional tax breaks.
Spending caps alone
fail balance and do • CAP Act does not seek balance; aims to solve the deficit problem by cutting spending alone. However,
not reduce the
not reduce the no guarantee that deficit is reduced at all because irresponsible policy on revenue is not constrained
no guarantee that deficit is reduced at all, because irresponsible policy on revenue is not constrained.
deficit.
Caps at average of
C t f • Th
The caps would go into place in 2013. It would cap spending at the average of the last 40 years—or
ld i l i 2013 I ld di h f h l 40
last 40 years cannot about 20.6% of GDP—by 2022. However, compared to 2000, the number of Americans on Medicare and
Social Security will go up by 50 percent – with nearly 25 million more recipients on each – by 2020.
repeal the aging of • That aging cannot be capped or repealed, which means global spending caps will likely force deep cuts
the population to Social Security and Medicare.
Sequester on all
spending—including • The cap would be enforced via an automatic sequester on all federal spending, excluding interest. That
means it could produce an automatic cut on current Social Security benefits, as well as low‐income
current Social programs
programs.
Security benefits.
12
CAP Act: Cuts Compared to Fiscal Commission
CAP Act: Cuts Compared to Fiscal Commission
CAP Act: Cuts Compared to Fiscal Commission
There is no denying the math. The CAP Act would force cuts to investments in our Nation’s future, as
well as in our core commitments to the Nation’s seniors and most vulnerable citizens. And, cutting one
area less requires cutting others more to hit a cap.
If we adopted all of the spending cuts laid out by the
Fiscal Commission—including a 20 percent cut to all
discretionary spending including security and
discretionary spending including security and A $280 Billion Cut, needed when the Caps
A $280 Billion Cut needed when the Caps
hundreds of billions from Social Security and would be fully phased in as of 2022
Medicare—that would still leave a roughly $280 Translates to:
billion cut needed when the caps were fully phased
in as of 2022
in as of 2022.
A cut of about 10% in the two
A cut of about 10% in the two
• A cut of more than 15% in Social Security programs together. For an average
alone. retiree, that means a Social Security
benefit cut of more than $1,700 per
• A cut of nearly
A t f l 25% in Medicare
25% i M di alone.
l year.
13
CAP Act’s Sequester Would Automatically Cut Social Security &
Medicare
Global Spending Caps
Global Spending Caps
Cuts to current benefits would start in 2013—and total more than $2 trillion of the decade.
• This is in contrast to all previous bipartisan budget triggers
This is in contrast to all previous bipartisan budget triggers—which
which have excluded Social
have excluded Social
If Congress fails to cut spending Security and low‐income programs.
to the levels under the CAP Act • In fact, because CAP Act assigns the largest cuts to the fastest growing parts of the
caps, the caps would enforced budget, the sequester would hit Social Security and Medicare particularly hard. Cuts to
current benefits would start in 2013—and total more than $2 trillion of the decade.
via an automatic sequester on • If we adopted all of the spending cuts laid out by the Fiscal Commission—including a 20
allll programs—including current
i l di t percent cut to all discretionary spending including security and hundreds of billions from
Social Security benefits. Social Security and Medicare—that would still leave a roughly $280 billion cut needed
when the caps were fully phased in as of 2022. That would require cutting about $220
billion from Social Security and Medicare (saving $60 billion in interest).
Cuts in Medicare and Social Security Over Next Decade Under CAP Act’s Automatic Mechanism
(in billions of dollars)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2013‐2021
Medicare ‐28 ‐47 ‐66 ‐93 ‐97 ‐101 ‐122 ‐141 ‐161 ‐856
Social Security ‐41 ‐71 ‐100 ‐138 ‐147 ‐157 ‐184 ‐210 ‐237 ‐1,285
Total ‐69 ‐118 ‐166 ‐231 ‐244 ‐258 ‐306 ‐351 ‐398 ‐2,141
MEMO ITEM:
‐5% ‐8% ‐11% ‐15% ‐15% ‐15% ‐16% ‐18% ‐19%
Percentage Cut
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 14
14
Major Areas of Contrast Between the President’s $4 Trillion
Deficit Framework and the House GOP Budget Plan (1 of 3)
The President’s Framework House GOP Budget Resolution
1 $4 trillion in deficit reduction over 12 years: $4.4 trillion in deficit reduction over 10 years:
Approach • Phased in to protect economic recovery Deep cuts to education, clean energy and health
• Will reduce deficits as a share of our economy to care
to Deficit
about 2 5% of GDP by 2015
about 2.5% of GDP by 2015 Over $1 trillion in tax cuts for the corporations and
Over $1 trillion in tax cuts for the corporations and
Reduction • Promotes economic growth that benefits the the highest income earners.
middle class
2
Debt Cap Forces discipline on Washington to live within its means No mechanism to ensure that deficit reduction is
to Ensure Enforced by a “debt cap” that will trigger across‐the‐ achieved
Deficit b d d ti
board reductions of spending (both direct and
f di (b th di t d
through the tax code) if that goal is not met.
Reduction
3
Domestic Builds on savings from the recent budget deal and reduces non‐ Makes deep cuts in key investments, including in areas
security discretionary spending to its lowest level as share of the
Spending economy since Eisenhower. Achieves $770 billion in savings by 2023
economy since Eisenhower. Achieves $770 billion in savings by 2023 like infrastructure, education, science and energy
Cuts
Maintains investments in clean energy R&D that will help put a Reduces our investments in jobs producing renewable energy
Clean million electric vehicles on the road by 2015, retrofit residential programs and our clean energy future by 70 percent, while
Energy homes, and make the commercial building sector 20 percent more protecting $4B in tax breaks for the oil and gas industry.
efficient by 2020
Maintains investments in education in the President’s Budget, Makes deep cuts to education:
including an historic expansion in Pell Grants and the innovative Race • Cuts the Pell Grant award by hundreds, if not thousands, of
Education to the Top program, while eliminating XXX duplicative or outdated dollars for nearly 8 million students
programs. • Drops 320,000 low‐income preschoolers from Head Start, which
would mean laying off 75,000 teachers and staff
4 Goes beyond the Fiscal Year 2012 Budget to achieve deeper Fails the test of shared sacrifice by exempting
Defense reductions in security spending.
Spending • Sets a goal of keeping the growth in base security spending defense from additional spending discipline.
below inflation, while ensuring our capacity to meet our
Cuts national security responsibilities 15
Major Areas of Contrast with the House GOP Plan (2 of 3)
The President’s Framework House GOP Budget Resolution
5 Builds on the foundation of the historic deficit reduction Cuts health care benefits for seniors, raises health costs for
achieved through the Affordable Care Act to save an middle‐class families, and denies health coverage to nearly
Health additional $480 billion by 2023 and another $1 trillion over
C
Care 50 million people
50 million people
the subsequent decade
Savings
Makes Medicaid more flexible, efficient and accountable
, Turns Medicaid into a block grant
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• Replaces the current complicated Federal matching formula with a single • After a decade, Federal Medicaid spending would be cut by 33 percent
matching rate for all program spending that rewards States for efficiency • 15 million people would be denied the coverage they would have gotten
Medicaid and protects against economic downturn under the pre‐Affordable Care Act Medicaid – in addition to the 34 million
• Incentivizes more efficient, higher quality, care for high cost beneficiaries, who would lose coverage due to the repeal of the Affordable Care Act
including those eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid
Public‐Private partnership to improve patient safety Does not include any provision to ensure patient safety or improve
Patient • Launch of new Partnership for Patients to improve quality, safety and health care quality
affordability of health care
Safety • Achievement of goals could reduce costs in Medicare by up to $50 billion
over the next ten years, with billions more in Medicaid 16
Major Areas of Contrast with the House GOP Plan (3 of 3)
The President’s Framework House GOP Budget Resolution
6 Targets $360 billion in savings by 2023 by Makes deep cuts to programs that provide
building on proposals in the President’s 2012 security to families in times of need
Budget. • Includes cuts of up to 30% to income
Other security programs such as the Supplemental
Mandatory Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
Spending
Spending
7 Pursues individual tax reform that closes Proposes $1.1 trillion in tax cuts for families
loopholes and produces a system which is making more than $250,000
simpler, more fair, and not rigged in favor of • An average tax cut of nearly $200,000 per
those who can game the system with lawyers millionaire
and accountants
d t t
• Does not make our deficit problem worse by
extending the Bush tax cuts for the
Tax Reform wealthiest Americans
17