SELECT A DESTINY

Games Fair Written Analysis

The Rules/How to Play
- place 2 data dollars on any area on the betting field
- select one of the five face down cards and flip it over
- if the selected card matches the player’s bet, he/she wins the appointed prize amounts
- if the player flips over the ace of spades, he/she gets their next round free (in addition to any
prize amounts won. The player receives a free game upon flipping the ace of spades regardless if
they won any data dollars as a result of flipping it.)
- if the player flips over one of the two jokers, the player is then bankrupt and forfeits their bet
instantly (jokers do not count as red or black)
- if the player decides to bet on a jack, queen or king, the player is allowed to flip three cards
meaning three chances to win (however only 1 prize amount is awarded.)
- an “ace” represents the number “one”

The Items Required to Play

- the betting field
- standard deck of playing cards with 2 jokers

The Player’s Theoretical and Experimental Probability of Winning

How a player wins in this game depends on where they bet on the betting field. Therefore, we
have to consider the chances of winning on each spot on the betting field.

Theoretical Probability of Winning:

When Betting on Red - 26/54 ~ 0.48148
When Betting on Black - 26/54 ~ 048148
When Betting on Odd - 20/54 ~ 0.37037
When Betting on Even - 20/54 ~ 037037
When Betting on Spades - 13/54 ~ 0.24074
When Betting on Clubs - 13/54 ~ 0.24074
When Betting on Diamonds - 13/54 ~ 0.24074
When Betting on Hearts - 13/54 ~ 0.24074
When Betting on Jacks - 4/54 x 3 ~ 0.22222
When Betting on Queens - 4/54 x 3 ~ 0.22222
When Betting on Kings - 4/54 x 3 ~ 0.22222

Experimental Probability of Winning:

The Player’s Theoretical and Experimental Expected Return Per Game

How a player wins in this game depends on where they bet on the betting field. Therefore, we
have to look at each spot on the betting field’s individual expected return.

Let X represent the number of data dollars won.

Theoretical Expected Return Per Play:
When Betting on Red
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=3)
= 0(28/54) + 3(26/54)
= 0 + 78/54
~ 1.44 data dollars
When Betting on Black
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=3)
= 0(28/54) + 3(26/54)
= 0 + 78/54
~ 1.44 data dollars
When Betting on Odd
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=5)
= 0(34/54) + 5(20/54)
= 0 + 100/54
~ 1.85 data dollars
When Betting on Even
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=5)
= 0(34/54) + 5(20/54)
= 0 + 100/54
~ 1.85 data dollars
When Betting on Spades
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=7)
= 0(41/54) + 7(13/54)
= 0 + 91/54
~ 1.69 data dollars
When Betting on Clubs
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=7)
= 0(41/54) + 7(13/54)
= 0 + 91/54
~ 1.69 data dollars
Experimental Expected Return Per Play
When Betting on Diamonds
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=7)
= 0(41/54) + 7(13/54)
= 0 + 91/54
~ 1.69 data dollars
When Betting on Hearts
E(X) = X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=7)
= 0(41/54) + 7(13/54)
= 0 + 91/54
~ 1.69 data dollars
When Betting on Jacks
E(X) = [X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=10)] x 3*
= [0(50/54) + 10(4/54)] x 3
= [0 + 40/54] x 3
= 120/54
~ 2.22 data dollars
* (because there are 3 chances)
When Betting on Queens
E(X) = [X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=10)] x 3
= [0(50/54) + 10(4/54)] x 3
= [0 + 40/54] x 3
= 120/54
~ 2.22 data dollars
When Betting on Kings
E(X) = [X1P(X=0) + X2P(X=10)] x 3
= [0(50/54) + 10(4/54)] x 3
= [0 + 40/54] x 3
= 120/54
~ 2.22 data dollars