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Worklogistics.com
Stephan@worklogistics.com • 510-847-8537
Document Version 0.88
This document, along with the Modeling Virality spreadsheet are available online:
http://worklogistics.com/category/design-patterns/virality/
Additional Resources
• “Lessons Learned – Viral Marketing” by David Skok
http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/lessons-learnt-viral-marketing/
• “Viral marketing and user acquisition” by Andrew Chen
http://andrewchenblog.com/list-of-essays/
• “A Spreadsheet Model for Viral Growth” by Mark de Visser
http://www.markdevisser.com/2010/02/a-spreadsheet-model-for-viral-growth-2/
• Wikipedia Articles on “Exponential growth”, “Logistic Growth” and “Epidemic Model”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_growth
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_model
Viral Loop
ß = Invite Rate ∂ = Conversion Rate Ω = Attrition Rate
(Invite/User/Day) (Conversions/Invitations/Day) (Attritions/User/Day)
Sharing Sharing The Invite New Visitor Sign First Deepening Attrition
Decision Mechanics Invitation Landing Page Engagement Up Run Engagement
Product K-Factor
Where:
The K-Factor equation is the simplest equation that describes
product virality. It looks like this: • K = “Virality K-Factor” or “Virality
Coefficient”
• K = P1 x N x P2
• P1 = percentage of users who
When K is greater than 1, your user base replaces itself and growth is
invite others
exponential; however, this is the lifetime number of invites/
conversions. For any given period, K can be less than 1 and you can • N = average number of
still get exponential growth so long as the lifetime conversion is invitations by each user who
invites others
greater than one. The consequence of this is that a snapshot of the
K-value is not meaningful for models with ongoing sharing (i.e. • P2 = percentage of invitees who
most software products)1 . become users
1 Models that only allow each user to have one ‘sharing event‘ is one way to solve this problem, but the difficulty then is that this generally doesn’t fit the
actual real-world behavior we are trying to model and you can’t compare and update your model against real-world data as it comes in. See David Skok or
Mark de Visser’s excellent series of articles for ‘share-once’ models (see links on Table of Contents page).
April 7, 2011
A. % who Invite B1. # of invites From Fastcompany.com
Basic sharing bar with content up-sell: from
sharing to deeper engagement and
subscription.
From SlideShare.net
A. % who Invite D. Engagement From StumbleUpon.com A. % who Invite B1. # of invites C1. Accepts Invite (Gigya.com)
I am Powerful. My recommendations
are seen by millions
The context here is, the user has made the decision to share and now there are two things happening: a) getting
through the invite process and b) increasing the number and frequency of invites.
The essence of this step is reaching lots of users. There are two modes to sharing in the examples below: sending
a message to selected individuals, and posting to a personal or public network, (i.e. Facebook Wall, twitter feed,
Quora, etc.) Individual sharing has better response rates but posting has much better reach.
Because the reach of these services is so much greater than individual sharing, often successful viral products are
successful because they get shared on networks. Getting users to publish content to their wall, their friends wall
or to public networks is a key mechanism for virality.
In March 2010, Facebook implemented new rules* which dramatically changed sharing dynamics, they are:
1. You cannot publish the same Feed story to more than one friend’s Wall at a time
2. Let users tag photos
3. Users should initiate and consent to publishing
* http://developers.facebook.com/blog/post/371/
Default Message
makes it easy
Need Examples
Who from
Friendly Welcome!
Interesting commentary
about band pops up
randomly. Each comment
appearing in different
spot. Really engaging.
Immediately Re-Share
content for very fast viral
cycle
Need Examples
April 7, 2011
sign-in process.
No Password Sign Up Single Entry Password for Sign Up
C3. Sign Up From Geni.com From About.com
- Clear description
- Short, clarifying explanation
Sign up button:
Visually not as beautiful as some - Button says what it does
1. Communicates immediate benefit
other other examples here. - Direct language re-enforces message.
2. Imperative statement 'Start...'
- Focal point
3. Focal point of design
C3. Sign Up From SquareUp.com C3. Sign Up From Path.com C3. Sign Up General Rules
General Form Entry Design Issues
- Lazy registration: users can use site w/o registering
- Indicate required fields
- Real-time data validation
- Top aligned labels
- Minimize data entry
- Multi-Step process to break up complex entry
Registration and it’s used to deepen user commitment before asking for a sign up.
users (design goal: fast sign up) 2. Unsure (re-iterate value) and 3. Skeptical (description, social proof, etc)
stage in several frames of mind, Joshua Porter (see Resources on first pages) discusses three types: 1. Decided
Sign up is a significant hurdle for users, instead of signing up first, often a better design is to have users deepen
The challenges of this phase are: a) Moving undecideds into decided and b) getting users all the way through a
The context here is the user is in the process of deciding if they want to sign up for the service. Users come to this
April 7, 2011
Quora preferentially
From Quora.com
displays Facebook and
Twitter logins.
April 7, 2011
First run tour From Path.com tailored to specific uses
Friendly Welcome,
three options here:
- Tour
- Skip tour and jump in From Behance.com
- Help
lowers commitment
and encourages users
to take tour.
Numbered steps encourage users to try all three engagement actions Orientation Email
C2. First Use D. Engagement
From Flikr.com
From Flikr.com
Earn Points
Earn Reputation and Like points. Like
points can be 'spent' by voting up
songs you like
Quests
Quests entice users to trying features of the site, following
the musical tastes of three other users in this example.
Quests are fun and they teach users a new way to discover
music which reinforces the basic value of the site - brilliant!
Progress Bar to encourage completion of multi-step process Content Discovery: Slide-out dialog suggest next article
There are a huge range of engagement strategies, this is just a small sample.
Return to step 1