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Global, National and North West Region
Dr Marko Petrovic
Consultant in Communicable Disease Control,
Greater Manchester HPU
TB Lead, HPA NW Region
The goal
“…urge all advocates to be captured indeed "infected"
with the zeal and passion of those who are committed to this
campaign to eliminate TB as a public health concern. May
you all be passionate zealots. What a splendid gift TB
elimination will be for humanity's Third Millennium.'
Desmond Tutu,
Archbishop Emeritus of Cape Town, South Africa
What is tuberculosis?
W hat is tuberc ulosis?
T he dis ease caused by N O T other mycobacterial
M ycobac ter iu m infections:
tubercu losis com plex: eg.
u M. m arinum
u M. tuber culosis u M. avium intracellulare
u M. bovis u M. xenopi
u M. africanum u M. kansasii
u M. leprae
Global epidemiology
Rate of new TB infections in World:
This is happening right now!
‚‚‚‚‚
‚‚‚‚‚
‚‚‚‚‚
Global epidemiology
•8 million new cases of disease per year
•2 million deaths per year
•80% of new cases live in 22 high burden countries
•Global health emergency declared by WHO in 1993
Italy
Annual rate of change of TB incidence (%)
Factors contributing to global TB
picture
•HIV epidemic
• HIV and TB coinfection is a deadly combination
• TB accounts for about 11% of AIDS deaths worldwide
• In Africa, HIV is single most important factor determining
increased incidence of TB in past 10 years
Estimated TB incidence vs HIV prevalence
in high burden countries
Estimated annual TB incidence
1600
(per 100K adults, 1999)
1200
800
400 HIV prevalence increases by 1%
TB incidence increases by 26/100k/yr
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
HIV prevalence, adults 1549 years
Factors contributing to global TB
picture
•HIV epidemic
• HIV and TB coinfection is a deadly combination
• TB accounts for about 11% of AIDS deaths worldwide
• In Africa, HIV is single most important factor determining increased
incidence of TB in past 10 years
•Poorly managed TB programmes
•Economic breakdown
•Movement of people
Global strategy
Global Plan to Stop TB
http://www.stoptb.org/GPSTB/default.asp
•Launched 2001 by Stop TB Partnership
•Goal:
To eliminate TB
•Objectives:
Expand and adapt DOTS strategy
Improve diagnostics, drugs, vaccine
Strengthen global partnership
Tuberculosis notification rates by area,
Europe, 19952001
Rate / 100 000
100
East
90
80
70
60
50
Centre
40
30
20
10 West
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
EuroTB
Mean annual percentage change in TB
notification rates 19982002 (from EuroTB)
Mean annual percentage change in TB
notification rates 19982002 (from EuroTB)
Mean annual percentage change in TB
notification rates 19982002 (from EuroTB)
TB notification rates by sex, agegroup and area,
Europe, 2001*
West
Rate/100 000
25
20
15
10
5
0
04 514 1524 2534 3544 4554 5564 > 64
Centre
90
Rate/100 000
80
70
60 Male
50
40 Female
30
20
10
0
04 514 1524 2534 3544 4554 5564 > 64
East
Rate/100 000
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
04 514 1524 2534 3544 4554 5564 > 64
* Excluding Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Romania, Russian Federation, Turkey and
Ukraine (missing data). EuroTB
How do we know how much TB
there is in England and Wales?
M ycob acterial
L o cal h osp ital referen ce
labo rato ry labo rato ry
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
8
0
8
4
2
86
94
96
82
92
00
8
9
8
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
19
19
20
Year
Sources: Statutory Notifications of Infectious Diseases (NOIDS), ONS
Numbers of notifications in
England and Wales 1992 2002
2002
Tuberculosis notification rates,
England and Wales, 19822001
further reference, academic
45
and NHS and through a network of HPA reference, academic
40
and NHS laboratories provide rapid diagnosis and testing for drug
Rate per 100 000
35 London
resistance
30
25
20
Continued evaluation of new TB vaccine candidates in animal
England and Wales excluding London
15
models 10
5
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
83
84
85
86
93
94
95
96
82
87
88
89
90
91
92
97
98
99
00
01
19
Year
Sources: Tuberculosis notifications (PHLS/CDSCNOIDS), population figures (ONS
estimates)
Tuberculosis case reports and rates by region,
England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2001
3000 37.8 40
TB rate (per 100,000)
2500
Number of cases
32
2000
24
1500 13.7 13.5
11.3 9.7 16
1000 7.4 6.3 6.1 5.9
. 4.4 3.3 8
500
0 0
n
t
s
on
t
st
t
s
es
nd
as
or be r
es
er
es
nd
So Ea
nd
nd
al
la
E
st
W
W
la
W
um
la
Ire
h
Lo
th
Ea
h
id
th
ut
id
or
ut
n
M
H
M
So
e
er
st
N
t
th
th
es
Ea
or
&
W
N
ire
sh
Number of cases Rate (per 100,000)
rk
Yo
Sources: Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance, ONS midyear population estimates
Tuberculosis case reports and rates by age
group and sex, England, Wales and
Northern Ireland, 2001
500 30
TB rate per 100,000
25
Number of cases
400
20
300
15
200
10
100 5
0 0
4
10 9
15 4
30 9
35 4
45 4
50 9
55 4
65 4
70 9
80
60 9
20 9
25 4
40 9
75 4
9
+
2
4
6
7
1
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
5
7
5
Age group
Male No Female No
Male Rate Female Rate
Sources: Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance, ONS midyear population estimates
Tuberculosis rates in persons born in the UK
by age group, England and Wales, 1998 2001
14
12
TB rate per 100,000
10
1998
8 1999
6 2000
4 2001
2
0
4
10 9
45 4
50 9
55 4
60 9
65 4
70 9
an 757
d 9
25
30
35
40
15
20
4
24
29
34
39
14
19
0
5
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
er
ov
80
Age group
Sources: 1998 – National Tuberculosis Survey, 1999 – 2001 – Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance
Labour Force Survey population estimates
Tuberculosis rates in persons born abroad by
age group, England and Wales, 1998 2001
160
140
120
TB rate per 100,000
100 1998
80 1999
60 2000
40 2001
20
0
10
40
50
75
30
25
35
45
55
60
65
70
d 9
04
59
15
20
39
49
74
29
24
34
44
54
59
64
69
14
19
an 7
er
ov
80
Age group
Sources: 1998 – National Tuberculosis Survey, 1999 – 2001 – Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance
Labour Force Survey population estimates
Tuberculosis case reports by ethnic group
(%), England and Wales, 1998 2001
50
45
% of cases reported
40
35
1998
30
1999
25
2000
20
15 2001
10
5
0
Indian, White Black African Black Chinese
Pakistani, Caribbean
Bangladeshi
Source: 1998 – National Tuberculosis Survey, 1999 – 2001 Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance
Tuberculosis rates by place of birth and
ethnic group, England and Wales, 1998 2001
350
300
TB rate per 100,000
250
1998
1999
200
2000
150 2001
100
50
0
White Black Indian, Chinese White Black Indian, Chinese
African Pakistani, African Pakistani,
Bangladeshi Bangladeshi
Born in the UK Born abroad
Sources: 1998 – National Tuberculosis Survey, 1999 – 2001 – Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance
Labour Force Survey population estimates
North West TB epidemiology
TB is mainly a London problem but…
“KILLER DISEASE RATIO SAME IN
PARTS OF MANCHESTER AS IN
INDIAN CAPITAL”
“Longsight TB rate is the same as
Delhi”
Manchester Evening News
Friday Jan 31, 2003, p 1617 and leader article
2000 2001 2002 2003
Incidence of Tuberculos is by Local Authority
Rate per 100,000 population
20 to 45
10 to 20
5 to 10
0.1 to 5
no c ases
Agegroup and gender specific TB
rates NW 2003
16.00
MALE FEMALE
14.00
12.00
Cases per 100,000
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0 to 14 15 to 34 35 to 54 55 to 74 75 +over
TB Case Rates by Ethnic Group,
North West Region 2000 – 2003.
250.00
200.00
150.00
Rate/100,000
100.00
50.00
0.00
White Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi BlackCaribbean BlackAfrican BlackOther Chinese Other
Ethnic Group
Ethnicity of cases in NW
by SHA area
100%
90%
80%
70%
Unknown
60% Other
Chinese
50% Bangladeshi
Pakistani
40%
Indian
30% BlackOther
BlackAfrican
20% BlackCaribbean
White
10%
0%
Cheshire &
Merseyside Cumbria & Lancs
Gr Manchester
Clinical features of NW cases presenting in
2003 (by ethnicity)
(Patients may have >1 feature)
100.00%
80.00%
Percentage
20.00%
0.00%
White Non White
Ethnic group
Underlying determinants of TB
e.g. unemployment
What conclusions can we draw?
1. TB is the no 1 global infectious disease problem
2. Subsaharan Africa is epicentre of a HIVTB epidemic
3. Economic breakdown in exUSSR has led to:
• Rising rates
• High levels of MDRTB (incl some EU member states)
4. Population movement means infection movement
5. TB is not under control in urban England
6. Think TB: its never too far away from you!
If you want to know more…
http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/tb/menu.htm
Health Protection Agency TB pages – inc. surveillance
http://www.eurotb.org/
Surveillance of TB in Europe
http://www.who.int/gtb/index.htm
Global perspective from the World Health Organisation