feature

[ F EATURE ]

32 Twentyfour7. 3.10
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FUTURE
POWER
→
As no reliable crystal ball is available, Wärtsilä Power
Plants has formulated three alternative scenarios for
electricity production and consumption in 2023.
TEXT: JONI MÄKITALO ILLUSTRATION: ILJA KARSIKAS

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D
uring 2008, Wärtsilä’s international team spent a
total of more that 8000 hours in discussions with
academics, NGOs, business leaders, government
representatives and other experts in the energy sec-
tor. Using the material obtained, members of the
team constructed three alternative global scenarios
– “Green Earth”, “Blue Globe” and “Grey World” as a way of pre-
dicting how electricity production and consumption could look in
2023 – just 13 years into the future.
“The prime function of the scenarios is that of a strategy tool,”
says Pauliina Tennilä, General Manager, Scenarios and Business
Intelligence, Wärtsilä Power Plants. “As well as helping in strategy
discussions and supporting longer-term decision making, story-
telling models are an effective way of introducing flexible thinking
into the whole organization.”
Future energy systems for mankind are a hot topic, closely linked
to major ongoing global challenges. The search is on for a path that
limits factors responsible for climate change while at the same time
allowing the production of sufficient electricity to improve living
standards – with the additional complication of limited fossil fuel
reserves.
The Wärtsilä paper defining the three scenarios won the Best
Paper Award in the “Strategies for the European power industry”
category at the PowerGen Europe 2010 conference in June 2009.
A TRANSITION TO GREEN? According to the Wärtsilä scenarios
“Green Earth is a future world that you shape. Whether as a con-
sumer or a voter, your opinion counts.” It is a future of solar pan-
els on roofs, electric vehicles and mass transportation. Energy effi-
ciency is the prevailing paradigm and the only acceptable fossil
fuel is natural gas.
Consumers demand sustainable products and energy produc-
tion, encouraging related innovation. Smart electricity grids have
34 Twentyfour7. 3.10
been successfully implemented in cities and the batteries in electric
cars function as storage for excess electricity production. House-
holds generate a proportion of their own electricity using roof-top
solar power systems.
Pessimists may criticise Green Earth as just a pleasant dream.
Despite global discussion and hopes, the green trend is facing seri-
ous setbacks. “A global climate agreement was one assumption in
the Green Earth scenario, but achieving this remains uncertain and
the market price for carbon remains low,” says Tennilä.
Many will view Green Earth as a great place to live. The question
is whether it is too idealistic from a political viewpoint, too chal-
lenging in technological terms, or just very expensive to build in a
relatively short timeframe.
BLUE REPRESENTS REALISM. Blue Globe is described as “a
market-oriented, prosperous world powered by coal and nuclear
power.” Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is being uti-
lised, societies have accepted the idea of underground CO2 storage
and invested in the necessary infrastructure.
Coal is both inexpensive and widely available. Known down-
sides include local pollution and a strong contribution to green-
house gas emissions. In simple terms, CCS technologies extract the
CO2 and other unwanted emissions from coal power plant exhaust
gases, preventing their release into the atmosphere. The CO2 is then
pumped into underground storage spaces.
In Blue Globe, nuclear power is enjoying a strong renaissance
together with other centralised solutions such as large-scale wind
parks. As in Green Earth, transportation is powered by electric-
ity. Demand for oil has declined and is leading to a restructuring
of geopolitical networks. Helped by significant improvements in
energy efficiency, emissions are being kept within acceptable limits.
Debates about the safety of nuclear power and the associated
storage of radioactive waste continue. Questions regarding CCS
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INDIA MOVES TOWARDS

THE BLUE GLOBE
While national resources, economies and government
policies differ and have an important influence on local
electricity production and use, common technologies
make everything global.
Rakesh Sarin, Vice President, Wärtsilä Power
Plants Middle East and India and Managing Director
of Wärtsilä India, has presented the Wärtsilä
IF GREEN scenarios when opening discussions at conferences
and seminars. Audiences have included customers,

IS IDEALISTIC stakeholders and officials working in the energy sector.

“The scenarios have proved very useful in both internal
and external communications,” he says.
BLUE STANDS Feedback indicates that electricity generation and
use in India could resemble something like the Blue

FOR REALISM. Globe scenario in 2023. “Coal will remain a dominant

player in India’s energy matrix,” says Sarin.
Even so, a number of stakeholders in the Indian
market do not believe there will be a breakthrough
in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology.
Facilities feeding electricity into India’s national grid
in 2023 can be expected to include nuclear power
stations as well as solar-powered and gas-fired
operations.

technology remain open and public acceptance

of the idea of sweeping CO2 into underground
locations has not been truly tested.

NOTHING NEW BRINGS ONLY GREY. Grey

World represents a bleak future: “Resources
are scarce and energy security is a major issue
for governments around the world.” No new
power generating solutions have been real-
ised. Natural gas is the most important source
of energy with sky-high prices and geopolitical
power plays. Innovative energy solutions have
all failed to make the grade. Public opinion has
turned against nuclear power.
“A Grey World will be a difficult place for
everyone,” says Tennilä. “The term ‘energy effi-
ciency’ now only means cutting back on living
standards. Climate change no longer really fea-
tures on the political agenda, there’s simply no
time for it. Governments struggle with tensions
related to the scarcity of energy resources.”
“Growing protectionism, a lack of global

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agreement on tackling climate change and bilateral agree- SUPPORTING STRATEGY

ments on energy have recently been favouring this sce- DELIBERATIONS
nario,” she says. “At the same time, there isn’t adequate evi- Multinational energy companies, Shell in particular, have
dence of changes in values and behaviour towards either a pioneered the use of scenarios in their corporate strategy
Green Earth or the Blue Globe.” activities. “Scenario development gives us a process, a common
Even so, she believes that the three scenarios will be language and tools which enable people from a variety of
combined in 2023, with green, blue and grey elements.
disciplines and backgrounds to work together effectively,”
“Nothing has so far happened to suggest that any one of
says Charsten Wienbreyer, Global Account Manager, Shell
the three scenarios is no longer plausible. In an uncertain
Lubricants. A scenario approach has been a key element in
future, staying flexible will be important. Wärtsilä’s power
Shell’s strategy planning process since the 1970s.
plants can add a great deal of flexibility to power systems.”
Both energy investments and strategic decisions are long-
term, so every tool that helps in predicting the future is valuable.
REACTIONS VIA FACEBOOK. The three Wärtsilä scenarios
Experience suggests that scenarios can enhance strategic
were assembled without regard to any specific lobbies.
decision-making by challenging conventional modes of thinking.
“Given our current product and service portfolio, all three
“An important benefit of scenarios is that they promote
scenarios would have both positive and negative impacts
organisational flexibility,” says Klaus Meyer, Professor of
on demand for the products and services we offer,” says
Strategy and International Business at the University of Bath
Tennilä.
School of Management. Professor Meyer uses the Wärtsilä
In addition to strategy work and long-term product
scenarios in his MBA lectures to illustrate the complexity of the
development, the scenarios have been published as a way
world.
of stimulating discussion. Wärtsilä is keen to receive feed-
back. “As soon as the scenarios began to approach comple- “Global financial crises have shown us that business
tion, we realised that they need to be in the public domain,” environments can be a lot more uncertain than we think,” he
she says. “Their very nature is that of a multi-dimensional says. “While traditional linear mathematical forecasts are often
discussion.” the best information available, they can turn out to be
Global reactions to the scenarios are being moni- less than adequate when considering events in
tored, with news tracking being used to recog- the long term. Scenarios help us make
nise which one is getting reinforcing signals. sense of a complex and challenging
“There’s also an open Facebook account environment.”
as a forum for web discussions (www.
facebook.com/pages/Power-scenar-
ios-2023/189333649301 or search
for Power Scenarios),” says Ten-
nilä. Everyone is very welcome
to share their views.”

THE GREY
SCENARIO
PAINTS A BLEAK
FUTURE.

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