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Version 2.8
Table of Contents
Introduction (1 Apr 27)....................................................................................................................... 2
Version sharing (1 May 16)........................................................................................................ 3
Acknowledgements (1 May 16).................................................................................................4
Scope (1 May 16) ............................................................................................................................. 4
Economy notes (1 May 16) ....................................................................................................... 5
Japan notes (1 Apr 24) ............................................................................................................... 5
Haiti notes (1 Mar 17) ................................................................................................................ 6
Document Structure (1 Mar 16)................................................................................................ 8
My research next (1 May 17).......................................................................................................... 8
Lessons Hope Learned (1 May 18)..................................................................................................10
7
http://rebuildhaitibetter.net/forum/topics/navigation-resources
8 http://www.scribd.com/explore
9 http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HaitiDisasterRecoveryResearch/
10 http://www.box.net/
11 http://japan.resiliencesystem.org/
12 See my 1 year Haiti reviews here, and other places: http://www.haiti.prizm.org/
At the end of my “Nuclear Time Line” notes, there used to be a section on “Lessons
Learned” (but not much hope they will be implemented). I have now moved that info to
this separate document initially called “Lessons Japan,” although many of the disaster
avoidance planning lessons apply to other nations, the events occurred in Japan, that are the
impetuous to this discussion evaluation. Over time, there will be additions to this
evaluation.
15 Mainly non-nuclear, what I consider to be the bigger disaster for the people more due to tsunami than
earthquake.
16
http://www.linkedin.com/in/almacintyre - full profile - box net – Haiti – 1 year
http://rebuildhaitibetter.net/forum/topics/navigation-resources
http://www.haiti.prizm.org/
17
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HaitiDisasterRecoveryResearch/files/Recovery%20Challenges/
http://www.linkedin.com/in/almacintyre - full profile - box net – Haiti – Housing+Shelter
http://rebuildhaitibetter.net/forum/topics/navigation-resources
http://haiti.mphise.net/attachments-al-mac-quality-life
http://www.haiti.prizm.org/
18
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/HaitiDisasterRecoveryResearch/files/Next%20Disaster%20Protection%20/
http://www.linkedin.com/in/almacintyre - full profile - box net - Haiti
http://www.scribd.com/AlMac99
http://www.haiti.prizm.org/
19 The same place is at risk of similar intensity natural phenomena again in the future.
20 Already I am imagining the naming which will be used for Geography Channel presentations.
21 When Cascadian II strikes US-NW Canada-SW destroying roads, buildings, dams; sending tsunami down
west coast, and overloading inland rivers; millions of people will have no exit route. We know it is coming,
don’t know when, are doing nothing to protect those victims, whose population continues to grow.
22 See Asteroid Strike chapter. That should be mitigated via space science.
23
The Cascadian fault line is north of California’s San Andreas fault .
24
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/mragheb/www/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineeri
ng/Fukushima%20Earthquake%20and%20Tsunami%20Station%20Blackout%20Accident.pdf
25 The Gulf Oil Spill was not the first of that magnitude for those actors, just the first to get significant US
2. There are now well over 17,000 lobbyists based in Washington D.C. knocking on the
doors of those agencies with prospective legislation (LINK 2).27
3. Recommendations from the agencies, influenced by the lobbyists, then goes to Congress
along with a great deal of political contribution in the form of big bucks.
4. Then the TV show among our elected representatives vying for reelection and the big
bucks starts for our entertainment. The administration is the band leader in the orchestra pit
for this show. The major instruments are out of tune and harmony is difficult to reach.
5. In the mean time the national debt clock continues to run (LINK 3)28
6. Addressing latest disaster is complex: how best to mitigate vs. when history repeats – that
focus lasts until news media “history” brings us many new hot topics. Fixing
unemployment, housing market, food prices, gas prices, deficit, may or may not be practical.
26
https://www.fbo.gov/?s=agency&mode=list&tab=list
27 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobbying_in_the_United_States
28 http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Emergency Society helps our society prepare for emergency-related situations, such as
earthquakes, floods, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis, blizzards, war, terrorism,
personal crises and more. To prepare for the worst, we must band together as a society
and begin developing a plan now. Natural disasters and emergencies are nearly always
unexpected so we must organize our disaster preparation plans NOW in order to avoid
panic and chaos when any emergency situations do take place. By working together,
becoming Emergency Guardians, and pulling our own individual weight, we know that as
a society, we can weather any storm. 29
29http://emergencysociety.com/
30There’s no evidence, in reports so far on Japan nuclear disasters, that seismologists (earth quake scientists) or
tsunami experts were consulted in the design of the doomed power plants.
31
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/mragheb/www/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineeri
ng/Fukushima%20Earthquake%20and%20Tsunami%20Station%20Blackout%20Accident.pdf
32 More on this concept in my research notes: Weather Science Haiti.
33 http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/series/naked-science/5120/Overview#tab-Videos/08889_00
http://precedings.nature.com/documents/4745/version/3
34 http://www.unescap.org/idd/pubs/Asia-Pacific-Disaster-Report-2010.pdf
35 http://www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/EHA_CRD.pdf
36 http://go.worldbank.org/J99OFGA7D0
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/EASTASIAPACIFICEXT/EXTEAPRE
GTOPRISKMGMT/0,,contentMDK:22907219~menuPK:4078302~pagePK:2865114~piPK:2865167~theSite
PK:4077908,00.html?cid=EAP_EAPDMEN_Q_EXT
37 Also see my research notes on “Economic Disasters”, past present and future.
38 I disagree. Modern business does not want to expend the money to find out about the risks, then mitigate
them.
39 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marcelo-ebrard/preparing-for-the-next-earthquake_b_860086.html
Early warning system: We have developed the world's “first” earthquake warning system, 40
known as Sistema de Alerta Sísmica. The system is capable of generating warning signals of
an average of 60 seconds before the "S" waves first arrival in Mexico City by detecting
strong earthquakes occurring 280 km. away in the "Guerrero Gap" along Mexico's Pacific
coast. Since August 1991, the system has detected 656 seismic events along the Guerrero
Coast; nine strong enough to trigger early warning signals in Mexico City.
Schools: Mexico City's Department of Civil Protection conducts earthquake drills in all
Mexico City schools.
Construction: Public and private buildings in Mexico City are required to be part of the
city's civil defense program. We conduct structural reviews, gas and electricity installation
reviews, and identify assembly points and evacuation routes. There are strict building
requirements and inspection procedures during construction, and earthquake-resistant
engineering is utilized in new construction. Mexico City has also created the Institute for
Structural Security, which is responsible for providing recommendations on new
construction.
Training: Last year, we began training 10,000 civil servants who would play a critical role
during a disaster. Training involves four groups: [1] member of the Cabinet and senior
government officials, [2] service providers, including hospital workers, electricity and water
officials, [3] rescue workers, and [4] educators.
Public drills: Mexico City conducts regular earthquake drills, the largest of which takes
place annually on September 18, anniversary of the 1985 quake. Last September, more than
six million citizens participated in a drill that involved 13,000 public and private buildings
and 12,000 law enforcement and emergency personnel. It was an extraordinary
demonstration of government and citizen collaboration. The drills educate citizens on
evacuation routes and response plans. When people know what action to take, the cost in
human lives can be dramatically reduced. These drills also enable us to measure our response
capacity and identify high-risk locations through GIS-data technology.
40 I believe Japan also developed and implemented an earthquake warning system several decades ago. The
further away the epicenter (under ground) the better the lead time warning is. Japan’s was also billed as the
world’s first. It uses sensors buried deep below the ground, which were very expensive to install. The info is
communicated to people at the speed of electricity which is much faster than ground movement, so often
people have 15-20 minutes warning before earthquake arrives.
Warning time varies depending on depth of quake, and type of quake, but even a few seconds count towards
stopping trains, elevators, people diving for cover.
Through these critical investments, training and public education, our goal has been to make
Mexico City the most prepared megacity in the world for such a disaster.
41 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php
42 http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php
43 Precise #s in dispute.
44 Structure of alerts often trigger false-positives by anti-spam.
46 http://www.fema.gov/hazard/earthquake/
47 http://edition.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/03/31/japan.tsunami.village/index.html?iref=NS1
48 http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/EGUA-8F7M7K?OpenDocument&rc=3&cc=jpn OCHA
Relief Web
49 See IEDM chapter: Japan gave the citizenry one hour advance warning of tsunami coming, but
communications impaired, many thousands failed to “hear” warning, and consequently died, as was learned
later from surveys of survivors.
50 See the time line. Japan did in fact establish emergency command and control centers very rapidly.
51 http://www.iris.edu/seismon/
52 http://rainbow.ldeo.columbia.edu/courses/v1001/23.html
http://www.csmonitor.com/From-the-news-wires/2010/0309/What-s-to-blame-for-dinosaur-extinction-
Asteroids
53 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_impact_avoidance
54 http://www.permanent.com/a-impact.htm
55 http://www.realufos.net/2010/04/near-miss-asteroid-passes-between-moon.html
http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2010/10/close-shave-asteroid-passes-a-tenth-of-distance-to-
moon.html
56 http://www.permanent.com/a-impact.htm
57 http://www.permanent.com/a-impact.htm
58 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/07/close-call-asteroid-near-miss-for-earth-yesterday/
59 http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message918443/pg1
60 http://www.permanent.com/a-impact.htm
Haiti had a nasty quake Jan 2010, a couple years after earthquake scientists predicted that
Haiti was overdue to get a serious one, right around where it actually arrived.66 So the
quake was a shock to everyone, but not a surprise to earthquake scientists. Two years was
not enough time for a lot of preparation, but it was time to improve critical infrastructure
such as buildings where fire engines and ambulances parked (so they would not be
crushed by those collapsing buildings).
In this March 31 video,68 Gundersen describes the Fukushima plant as stable, but
precarious.69 In this update, he discusses the high levels of radiation (2 Million
disintegrations/second being found on the ground as far as 25 miles from the plant site.) He
also addresses a New York Times report of hundreds of tons of water being put into the
reactors each day. Gundersen points out that all of the water going in to the reactors is being
irradiated, leaking out, and polluting the Ocean. He concludes by discussing the differences
There’s lots more70 reports71 on their site,72 about Japan nuclear crisis.73
Maybe we need to revise the public severity ratings to include near misses, where nuclear
disasters were narrowly averted, and how often that happens with various facilities.
Remember that for several years before the VA security breach of 100% of the nation's
veterans, the VA was getting "F" in all cyber security audits. Well there are nuclear power
plants in America getting "F" in safety audits, and they are allowed to continue operating.
70 http://www.fairewinds.com/news
71 http://www.fairewinds.com/reports
72 http://www.fairewinds.com/updates
73 http://www.fairewinds.com/multimedia
74http://www2.wjtv.com/news/2011/may/02/radioactive-substance-found-mississippi-river-ar-1793435/
75 http://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2011/05/05-1
76 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/the-center-for-public-integrity/a-more-likely-nuclear-nig_b_860379.html
77 http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/stop-a-disaster-prevent-a-crisis-first/
78
https://netfiles.uiuc.edu/mragheb/www/NPRE%20402%20ME%20405%20Nuclear%20Power%20Engineeri
ng/Fukushima%20Earthquake%20and%20Tsunami%20Station%20Blackout%20Accident.pdf
In a general wide area emergency, rescue services may have multiple responsibilities, not able
to devote full time and resources to the nuclear power plants. Communication services may
be impaired. Computer records may not be accessible.
Near modern apartments, there are lock boxes containing information about the layout of
the buildings, who is where, power lines, plumbing, keys to all the doors. These lock boxes
are maintained by apartment management, with keys supplied to local police and fire
department. This is so, in an emergency, rescue services have access to all the info they may
need. Isn’t something similar done with critical infrastructure? It would appear that rescue
forces for the nuclear power plants were lacking in critical know-how needed to avoid
making things worse.
With water for cooling so critical, should the places needing the water be built below the
level of local river water supply, so that in an emergency, can open water doors, and just let
river pressure supply what is needed? Should spent fuel ponds be inside containment?
Inside of Japan nuclear reactor, and spent fuel ponds, both need water for cooling. When
electric power for the pumps is lost, such as due to earthquake, there are over a dozen diesel
generators. However they were located outside, behind a sea wall approx ½ as high as was
needed to protect against the tsunami which wiped them out. Which would have been more
economical? Sea wall higher than anyone thought needed, or diesel generators located
higher than anyone thought they needed to be?
Batteries, good for 8 hours, kept the pumps going. Military helicopters could have delivered
replacement batteries, but the decision was to truck in replacement diesel generators. They
got setup, ran fine, but there was a problem hooking them up to the pumps. Wrong plug
sizes. I imagine the mega disaster striking Japan was such that redundancy of protection for
the nuclear power plants was not on their radar screen, until the situation got much worse.
Most US spent fuel ponds are at ground level. Are they in buildings which will fall down on
top of them in a severe earthquake? Japan’s spent fuel ponds are on top floor of reactor
buildings, outside of any containment. Had they been at ground floor level, the tsunami
would have picked up that radioactive material and distributed it throughout the countryside,
so we all can be glad Japan was not using USA design. How many of USA over 100 nuclear
power plants are located by sea shore where a tsunami risk exists? Probably that info is
hidden from public view, because of efforts to hide info about critical infrastructure from
possible terrorist threats.
However, the ceilings over Japan’s spent fuel ponds have had holes broken in them by
workmen, for those buildings whose roofs have not yet been blown off by hydrogen build
up to explosion. The holes are to let the hydrogen escape without explosion, but those holes
This means that until electricity delivered to the pumps, water had to be delivered via
helicopters and fire department trucks. All that water would become radioactive, and maybe
unwise to dump into the sea. What is to be done with that water runoff? Doesn’t the plant
already have facilities to remove radioactivity from water? Eventually power is restored to
the plants, but that equipment may need repair, and the interior is thoroughly radioactive.
There also needs to be better protection for whistle blowers and assurance that government
regulators are doing their jobs properly. In the USA, the economic melt down was partly
due to government regulators doing nothing, when there was overwhelming evidence of
blatant illegality on Wall Street.79 In Japan, there have been multiple accusations that nuclear
safety was violated, with regulators in collusion with the industry, to cover them up. 80
Some answers, to questions, may have to wait until disaster recovery is further along.
For example, city or town X outside of the disaster area “adopts” as a sister city, a similar
sized community inside the disaster area, to provide essential services which the victim
community is unable to provide for itself.
There have been lots of tsunami drills in Japan, but there are still people who travel to the
beaches, to be spectators, thinking they can decide when it arrives whether they need to
evacuate or not. In 1960 a Chile earthquake sent a tsunami to Japan, where over 142 such
spectators got killed.
81 http://japan.resiliencesystem.org/2-week-report-kyoto-university-synthesis-and-initial-observations
82 I downloaded a copy, naming it IEDM 25 March Japan.
83 IEDM = International Environment and Disaster Management Laboratory
84 http://japan.resiliencesystem.org/2-week-report-kyoto-university-synthesis-and-initial-observations
85
http://www.iedm.ges.kyoto-u.ac.jp/
Japan has an urgent need to import fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to replenish energy lost
due to the nuclear accidents, but damage from the earthquake tsunami has severely
constrained storage facilities.
Debris from the Tsunami will take a long time to clean up.
Submergence, of some land, means coastal tides, future storm surges, will have different
impacts than Japanese people are accustomed to.
Weather, and disaster damage, impedes ability of rescue efforts to get where they need to go.
This parallels situation in early days of Haiti disaster relief, when there was a lack of fuel,
thanks to the disaster’s severity, and choices of what international forces brought to the
nation.
As we have observed with the Haiti disaster, and other disasters in humanitarian history
going back several decades, the disaster relief and avoidance industry is extremely
experienced in developing lessons learned, but the state of art of our civilization is that we
are totally incompetent, when it comes to implementing lessons learned. 89
Well Japan took that risk again, and once again a disaster ended production of some critical
components of industries which have a world wide need for those components, which
means that factories around the world have shut down, or sharply reduced production,
which means supply chain of ALL commodities to those factories, such as Asian auto
manufacturers in USA, have had to reduce their production of the other components.
Some of the production was lost due to the earthquake tsunami, some due to the nuclear
evacuation area, and some due to the power supply rationing.
90http://japan.resiliencesystem.org/waseda-university-long-term-socio-economic-and-environmental-resilience-
strategy-research-team
91 http://www.southbendtribune.com/sbt-20110519,0,6455428.story