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Hawkeye
May 24, 2011
Balkrishna Industries
Fair Value Range (INR) 157‐170 Higher volumes, capacity augmentation to drive growth
↑ Led by volume growth of 21% and 10%, BIL reported a 30% y‐o‐y and
16% q‐o‐q revenue growth in the Mar11 quarter. The 36% strong
Last Price (INR) 148.0
Bloomberg code BIL IN sequential growth in PAT was led by normalization in interest costs,
Reuters code BLKI.BO which were higher in the Dec10 quarter due to redemption premium
Avg. Vol. (3m) 46,547 of FCCBs. In the tyre segment, BIL is resorting to price hikes to mitigate
Avg. Val.(3m)(INRmn) 6.73 the impact of rising input costs. We believe these price hikes along
52‐wk H/L (INR) 162 / 103
with higher volumes are likely to help sustain a strong revenue growth.
Sensex 17,993
MCAP (INRbn/USDmn) 14.31 / 316
We revise our revenue estimates up to 9% for FY12f‐FY13f factoring in
volume CAGR of 10% as against 6% estimated earlier. We assign Mar12
Shareholding (%) 12/10 03/11 fair value range of INR157‐INR170, based on 6.0x‐6.5x Mar13f EPS,
Promoters 54.4 54.4 with a potential upside of 15% at the upper end of the TP band.
MFs, FIs, Banks 16.2 14.8
FIIs 14.2 15.5 Revenue growth at 30% led by robust demand
Public 12.7 12.6
BIL reported revenue growth of 30% y‐o‐y in the Mar11 quarter primarily led by
Others 2.6 2.7
volumes which grew by 21% y‐o‐y. Sales from tyres during the quarter stood at
Stock Chart (Relative to Sensex) 30,586 tonnes against 25,280 tonnes in 4QFY10. The volume growth on q‐o‐q
160
was at 10% translating into 16% revenue growth sequentially. On higher other
expenditure, EBIDTA margins stood at 16%, down 160‐bp on sequential basis.
145
The 36% strong sequential growth in PAT was led by normalization in interest
costs, which were higher in Dec10 quarter due to redemption premium of
FCCBs.
130
Expansion plans progressing as per schedule
The expansion plans of the company are progressing as per schedule. The
115
brownfield expansion is likely to be completed by 2QFY12 and will provide
additional volumes of c20,000 tonnes annually. BIL has already spent INR1.3bn
100
against INR2.0bn planned for this expansion. The greenfield expansion at Bhuj,
May10 Sep10 Jan11 May11
Balkrishna Inds. Sensex Rebased Gujarat too is progressing well and is expected to be commissioned by 3QFY13.
This expansion plan will enhance production capacity by 120,000 tonnes p.a.
Revise estimates by upto 9% factoring in higher volume growth
Stock Perfm. (%) 1m 6m 1yr
Supported by a strong demand in its end user industries and to mitigate the
Absolute 10.1 ‐4.3 36.3
impact of rising rubber prices, BIL has undertaken 6%‐8% price hike in April
Rel. to Sensex 18.2 3.1 26.9
2011. This is the second price hike taken by the company during CY2011. We
Financials (INRmn) 03/10 03/11f 03/12f believe these price hikes along with higher volumes should help the company
Sales 15,636 22,017 27,035 report strong revenue growth going forward. Accordingly we have revised our
YoY (%) 12 41 23 revenue estimates for FY12f‐FY13f up to 9% factoring in higher volume growth.
EBITDA (%) 25 17 17 The volume assumption has been revised from 6% to 10% CAGR FY12f‐13f on
A.PAT 2,190 1,946 2,354 account of strong demand. We have also reduced our EBIDTA margins
Sh o/s (diluted) 97 97 97
estimates for FY12f/FY13f by 90‐bp/40‐bp factoring in higher rubber costs.
A.EPS (INR) 22.7 20.1 24.4
YoY (%) 194 ‐11 21
Revise Mar12 fair value range to INR157‐INR170
D/E (x) 0.8 0.6 1.0
We revise our Mar12 fair value range to INR157‐INR170 from INR155‐INR168
P/E (x) 6.5 7.3 6.1 based on P/E range of 6.0x‐6.5x Mar13f EPS and revised estimates. At the
EV/E (x) 5.1 5.1 5.5 current market price of INR148, the stock is trading at a one‐year forward P/E
RoCE (%) 21 16 14 of 6.1x, which is at a discount to its average P/E of 8.4x. Higher than anticipated
RoE (%) 38 25 24 increase in input costs and delay in planned capacity addition are key risks to
our estimates.
Quarterly Trends 06/10 09/10 12/10 03/11
Sales (INRmn) 4,576 4,746 4,950 5,756 Neeraj Vinayak, +91 022 66842860
PAT (INRmn) 444 510 382 521
neeraj.vinayak@avendus.com
Please refer to the disclaimer towards the end of the document.
India Equity Research Balkrishna Industries
Exhibit 1: Historical one‐year forward P/E and target P/E (x)
30
1‐year forward P/E Average P/E Target P/E
25
20
15
10
‐
Feb06 Nov06 Aug07 May08 Feb09 Dec09 Sep10 Jun11 Mar12
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Avendus Research
Exhibit 2: Earnings revision summary
(INRmn) ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ FY12f ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ FY13f ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
Old New Var (%) Old New Var (%)
Revenue 24,745 27,035 9 27,653 29,778 8
EBITDA 4,408 4,570 4 5,232 5,508 5
EBIT 3,630 3,829 5 4,156 4,212 1
PBT 3,261 3,488 7 3,664 3,724 2
PAT 2,201 2,354 7 2,492 2,533 2
EPS (INR) 23 24 7 26 26 2
Source: Avendus Research
Exhibit 3: 4QFY11: result snapshot
(INRmn) Mar‐10 Dec‐10 q‐o‐q (%) Mar‐11 y‐o‐y (%)
Total operating income 4,428.6 4,950.0 16.3 5,756.3 30.0
Total operating expenses 3,321.9 4,081.1 18.4 4,832.6 45.5
EBITDA 1,106.7 868.9 6.3 923.7 ‐16.5
Other Income 43.7 ‐2.9 63.9 46.2
Depreciation 175.5 189.8 ‐0.3 189.2 7.8
EBIT 974.9 676.2 18.1 798.4 ‐18.1
Interest 40.6 110.4 ‐68.0 35.3 ‐13.1
Recurring PBT 934.3 565.8 34.9 763.1 ‐18.3
Net extra ordinary items 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT (reported) 934.3 565.8 34.9 763.1 ‐18.3
Total taxes 299.6 183.7 32.1 242.6 ‐19.0
PAT (reported) 634.7 382.1 36.2 520.5 ‐18.0
Less: Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prior period items 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net income (reported) 634.7 382.1 36.2 520.5 ‐18.0
Shares outstanding (mn) 96.7 96.7 96.7
EPS (INR) 6.6 4.0 36.2 5.4 ‐18.0
Operating ratios(%)
EBITDA margin 25.0 17.6 16.0
EBIT margin 22.0 13.7 13.9
Net profit margin 14.3 7.7 9.0
Source: Avendus Research, Company
Hawkeye 2
India Equity Research Balkrishna Industries
Financials and Valuations
Income statement (INRmn) Cash flow statement (INRmn)
Fiscal year ending 03/09 03/10 03/11 03/12f 03/13f Fiscal year ending 03/09 03/10 03/11f 03/12f 03/13f
Total operating income 14,001 15,636 22,017 27,035 29,778 Net profit 744 2,190 1,946 2,354 2,533
Total operating expenses 11,570 11,792 18,246 22,465 24,270 Depreciation 586 686 773 877 1,451
EBITDA 2,431 3,844 3,771 4,570 5,508 Deferred tax 11 30 27 34 36
Other income ‐308 300 108 135 155 Working capital changes 558 ‐804 ‐1,384 ‐181 ‐662
Depreciation 586 686 773 877 1,451 Less: Other income ‐308 300 108 135 155
EBIT 1,537 3,458 3,106 3,829 4,212 Cash flow from operations 2,208 1,802 1,255 2,949 3,202
Interest 384 193 223 341 487 Capital expenditure ‐1,217 ‐1,242 ‐880 ‐8,533 ‐4,600
Recurring PBT 1,153 3,264 2,882 3,488 3,724 Strategic investments 0 ‐578 ‐ ‐ ‐
Net extra ordinary items ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Marketable investments 0 0 0 0 0
PBT (reported) 1,153 3,264 2,882 3,488 3,724 Change in other loans & adv. ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0
Total taxes 409 1,074 936 1,134 1,192 Goodwill paid ‐ 0 ‐ ‐ ‐
PAT (reported) 744 2,190 1,946 2,354 2,533 Other income ‐308 300 108 135 155
(+) Share in assoc. earnings ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Cash flow from investing ‐1,526 ‐1,520 ‐772 ‐8,398 ‐4,445
Less: Minority interest ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Equity raised ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Prior period items ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Change in borrowings ‐626 ‐49 500 6,500 800
Net income (reported) 744 2,190 1,946 2,354 2,533 Dividends paid (incl. tax) ‐136 ‐158 ‐160 ‐174 ‐173
Avendus net income 744 2,190 1,946 2,354 2,533 Others 93 ‐139 ‐15 ‐22 ‐23
Shares outstanding (mn) 19.3 19.3 96.7 96.7 96.7 Cash flow from financing ‐668 ‐346 325 6,304 603
Avendus dil. shares (mn) 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.7 Net change in cash 14 ‐63 807 854 ‐640
Avendus EPS (INR) 7.7 22.7 20.1 24.4 26.2
Growth ratios (%) Key Ratios
Total operating income 23.5 11.7 40.8 22.8 10.1 Fiscal year ending 03/09 03/10 03/11f 03/12f 03/13f
EBITDA 8.1 58.1 ‐1.9 21.2 20.5 Valuation ratios (x)
EBIT ‐23.0 125.0 ‐10.2 23.3 10.0 P/E (on Avendus EPS) 19.2 6.5 7.3 6.1 5.6
Recurring PBT ‐33.0 183.0 ‐11.7 21.0 6.8 P/E (on basic, reported EPS) 19.2 6.5 7.3 6.1 5.6
Avendus net income ‐33.4 194.4 ‐11.1 21.0 7.6 P/CEPS 10.8 5.0 5.3 4.4 3.6
Avendus EPS ‐33.4 194.4 ‐11.1 21.0 7.6 P/BV 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.1
Operating ratios (%) Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
EBITDA margin 17.4 24.6 17.1 16.9 18.5 Market cap. / Sales 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5
EBIT margin 11.0 22.1 14.1 14.2 14.1 EV/Sales 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9
Net profit margin 5.4 13.7 8.8 8.7 8.5 EV/EBITDA 8.0 5.1 5.1 5.5 4.8
Other income/PBT ‐26.7 9.2 3.7 3.9 4.2 Net Cash / Market cap. 0.8 0.4 6.0 12.0 7.5
Effective Tax rate 35.5 32.9 32.5 32.5 32.0 Per share ratios (INR)
Avendus EPS 7.7 22.7 20.1 24.4 26.2
Balance sheet (INRmn) EPS (Basic, reported) 7.7 22.7 20.1 24.4 26.2
Fiscal year ending 03/09 03/10 03/11f 03/12f 03/13f Cash EPS 13.8 29.8 28.1 33.4 41.2
Equity capital 193 193 193 193 193 Book Value 49.5 70.5 89.0 111.5 135.9
Preference capital ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Dividend per share 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6
Reserves and surplus 4,588 6,621 8,407 10,587 12,946 Total assets / equity (x) 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.9 2.1
Net worth 4,781 6,814 8,600 10,780 13,140 Return ratios (%)
Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 ROCE 9.8 20.8 15.7 13.7 11.6
Total debt 4,826 4,777 5,277 11,777 12,577 ROIC 11.1 22.5 17.4 19.4 14.7
Deferred tax liability 546 576 587 599 612 ROE 16.6 37.8 25.3 24.3 21.2
Total liabilities 10,153 12,167 14,465 23,157 26,329 ROA 7.4 19.6 14.6 12.5 10.2
Gross block 7,722 9,093 9,693 11,693 23,693 OCF/Sales 15.8 11.5 5.7 10.9 10.8
less: Acc. depreciation 2,081 2,628 3,401 4,278 5,729 FCF/Sales 7.1 3.6 1.7 ‐20.7 ‐4.7
Net block 5,641 6,465 6,292 7,415 17,964 Turnover ratios (x)
CWIP 815 687 967 7,500 100 Asset turnover (x) 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.2
Goodwill ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Gross asset turnover 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.3 1.3
Investments 39 617 617 617 617 Inventory / Sales (days) 43.5 41.0 41.5 41.6 42.9
Cash 117 54 861 1,715 1,076 Receivables (days) 55.9 55.3 50.5 52.5 53.4
Inventories 1,333 2,177 2,835 3,333 3,671 Payables (days) 34.2 35.7 34.5 37.4 38.4
Debtors 2,208 2,531 3,559 4,222 4,487 Working capital cycle (days) 99.6 92.0 83.5 78.6 76.5
Loans and advances 2,875 3,823 4,844 5,137 5,658 Solvency ratios (x)
less: Current liabilities 883 1,330 1,987 2,456 2,480 Gross debt to equity 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.0
less: Provisions 1,992 2,858 3,523 4,326 4,764 Net debt to equity 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9
Net working capital 3,657 4,398 6,590 7,625 7,648 Net debt to EBITDA 2.2 1.4 1.3 2.3 2.2
Total assets 10,153 12,167 14,465 23,157 26,329 Interest Coverage (on EBIT) 4.0 17.9 13.9 11.2 8.6
Hawkeye 3
India Equity Research Balkrishna Industries
Analyst Certification
I Neeraj Vinayak, PGDM, research analyst and author of this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect our personal views about the
subject company/companies and its or their securities. We further certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific
recommendations or views expressed in this document.
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Hawkeye 4