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MENA-2 THURSDAY MORNING ROUND-UP EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011 Thank you for your support.
MENA-2 THURSDAY MORNING ROUND-UP EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011 Thank you for your support.
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MENA-2 THURSDAY MORNING ROUND-UP EuroMoney is currently conducting its Middle East Research and Best Managed Companies Survey. To vote for EFG hermes, go to www.euromoney.com / MiddleEast2011 Thank you for your support.
Авторское право:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Доступные форматы
Скачайте в формате PDF, TXT или читайте онлайн в Scribd
EuroMoney
is
currently
conducting
its
Middle
East
Research
and
Best
Managed
Companies
Survey.
The
EuroMoney
Survey
runs
until
24
June
2011.
To
vote
for
EFG
Hermes,
go
to
www.euromoney.com/MiddleEast2011
Thank
you
for
your
support.
Egypt
Prime
Minister
Sharaf
promotes
successes
ahead
of
Friday
protest
Government
is
looking
to
recognise
direct
land
awards
since
1998
Political
turmoil
drives
up
1Q2011
unemployment
US
calls
for
G8
to
support
Egypt
and
Tunisia
SODIC
reports
a
1Q2011
net
loss
of
EGP15.7
million
on
weak
delivers;
strong
pre-sales
in
1Q2011
Juhayna’s
Deputy
CEO
to
leave
the
company
Olympic
Group
reports
1Q2011
results:
EGP35
million
net
loss
Telenor
expects
Vimpelcom
arbitration
to
end
by
1H2012
HDB
and
Egyptian
Arab
Land
Bank
dropped
by
the
government
BG
to
invest
USD250
million
in
Egypt
licences
Saudi
Arabia
Private
sector
credit
growth
slows,
but
outlook
remains
strong
EFG
Hermes
Research
Nasr
City
Housing
&
Development
Co.
(MNHD)
-
Reinitiate
Coverage:
Dispute-Free
Land
Bank
Key
Value
Driver,
Limited
Downside
Risks;
Buy
-
Initiation
of
Coverage
-
25
May
2011
Agenda
Egypt
Thu
26
May
>>
Oriental
Weavers
ex-‐dividend
for
EGP2.0/share
cash
dividend
Sun
29
May
>>
Maridive
ex-‐dividend
date
for
USD0.06
cash
DPS
Mon
30
May
>>
Sidpec
AGM
and
EGM
Wed
1
June
>>
Telecom
Egypt
(TE)
1Q2011
results
Wed
1
June
>>
Elsewedy
Electric
ex-‐dividend
date
for
EGP1.00/share
cash
dividend
Mon
6
June
>>
Orascom
Construction
Industries
(OCI)
AGM
Mon
6
June
>>
Mobinil
ex-‐date
for
EGP3.16
cash
DPS
Saudi
Arabia
Wed
1
June
>>
Alujain
AGM
Wed
29
June
>>
Dar
Al
Arkan
AGM
and
EGM
Egypt
News
Prime
Minister
Sharaf
promotes
successes
ahead
of
Friday
protest
Egypt’s
Prime
Minister
Essam
Sharaf
promoted
his
interim
government’s
achievements
on
Wednesday
since
taking
office
in
February
before
a
rally
planned
in
Cairo
on
Friday.
Prime
Minister
Sharaf,
in
an
address
on
state
television,
did
not
mention
Friday’s
planned
protest,
but
appealed
to
Egyptians
to
give
his
government
time
to
meet
their
demands.
“It
is
difficult,
even
impossible,
for
us
to
deal
with
and
realise
all
factional
demands...
on
an
individual
basis,”
he
said.
“The
problem
isn’t
financial
problems
only.
A
lot
of
(the
problems)
depend
on
institutional
and
administrative
reform.”
He
added
that
the
police,
which
had
been
in
disarray
since
the
uprising,
was
being
restructured
and
that
a
plan
was
being
drawn
up
for
13
watchdog
bodies
to
root
out
corruption
and
safeguard
public
funds.
Facebook
groups
have
been
complaining
about
what
they
see
as
slow
political
and
economic
reforms
and
delays
by
the
military
council
and
the
interim
government
in
bringing
to
justice
former
officials
charged
with
abuse
of
power
and
graft.
They
have
called
for
a
massive
demonstration
in
Cairo’s
Tahrir
Square,
the
hub
of
protests
that
toppled
Hosni
Mubarak,
on
Friday
in
what
they
dubbed
the
“second
revolution”.
(Reuters)
Government
is
looking
to
recognise
direct
land
awards
since
1998
The
government
is
finalising
a
draft
law
that
will
recognise
land
sales
by
direct
orders
executed
after
the
Law
of
Tenders
and
Auctions
of
1998,
which
triggered
a
series
of
legal
disputes
in
the
real
estate
sector.
The
Minister
of
Agriculture
and
Land
Reclamation,
Ayman
Abu-‐Hadid,
submitted
to
the
cabinet
the
draft
law,
which
was
previously
worked
on
by
the
government
of
Ahmed
Nazif
and
which
aims
to
legitimise
contracts
signed
by
the
previous
governments,
with
local
and
foreign
investors
in
violation
of
the
Law
of
Tenders
and
Auctions
of
1998.
This
would
put
an
end
to
court
proceedings
over
these
transactions,
especially
after
foreign
companies
indicated
that
they
will
resort
to
international
arbitration
should
their
contracts
be
cancelled
or
assets
purchased
from
the
government
re-‐priced.
Drafting
the
law
is
approaching
the
final
stages
and
it
will
be
submitted
to
the
government
“within
the
coming
few
days”,
Al
Masry
Al
Youm
reported,
quoting
a
government
official
as
saying.
We
believe
that
such
a
law
would
be
yet
another
positive
signal
from
the
authorities
regarding
the
prominent
land
disputes
that
are
currently
having
a
negative
impact
on
Egypt’s
economy
as
a
whole,
given
that
construction
industry
is
one
of
the
top
employers
in
the
country.
A
law
of
that
kind
would
possibly
put
an
end
to
the
Madinaty
row
and
other
cases
where
corruption
has
not
been
proven,
but
the
land
sale
transactions
had
legal
flaws
that
could
be
challenged
in
courts.
The
news
could
further
strengthen
sentiment
towards
real
estate
equities
listed
on
the
EGX,
provided
that
the
report
by
Al
Masry
Al
Youm
is
accurate,
given
that
no
similar
news
was
reported
by
other
sources
as
of
today.
We
reiterate
our
Buy
rating
on
Talaat
Moustafa
Group
(TMG)
[TMGH.CA].
(Al
Masry
Al
Youm,
Jan
Pawel
Hasman,
Shaza
El
Kady)
Political
turmoil
drives
up
1Q2011
unemployment
Egypt’s
1Q2011
unemployment
rate
rose
by
three
percentage
points
from
4Q2011
to
11.9%
as
political
turmoil
hit
the
economy,
according
CAPMAS,
the
national
statistics
body.
The
total
number
of
unemployed
rose
to
a
record
3.1
million,
as
nearly
141,000
people
lost
their
jobs
after
recent
events.
Urban
unemployment
stood
at
15.9%,
while
rural
unemployment
stood
at
8.8%
in
1Q2011.
The
figures
add
further
support
to
our
expectations
for
a
2011
contraction
in
real
GDP
of
2.5%
as
consumption
and
investment
suffer
from
political
and
economic
uncertainty.
We
expect
the
loss
in
employment
to
be
driven
mainly
by
the
tourism
sector,
the
country’s
largest
employer,
which
suffered
from
lower
tourist
arrivals
on
security
concerns.
Construction
activity
is
likely
to
have
been
another
driver
of
unemployment,
in
our
view,
with
legal
problems
restricting
growth
in
the
sector
as
evident
by
weak
cement
and
steel
sales
in
1Q2011.
(Reuters,
Mohamed
Abu
Basha)
US
calls
for
G8
to
support
Egypt
and
Tunisia
The
United
States
on
25
May
2011
called
on
the
Group
of
Eight
nations
meeting
this
week
in
France
to
help
with
financial
support
for
Egypt
and
Tunisia
as
the
two
countries
attempt
to
make
the
transition
to
democracy.
In
a
letter
to
the
G8,
Secretary
of
State
Hillary
Clinton
and
Treasury
Secretary
Timothy
Geithner
argued
that
rich
nations
should
do
everything
they
can
to
make
sure
popular
democratic
uprisings
are
ultimately
successful.
Clinton
and
Geithner
reiterated
their
commitment
to
a
debt
swap
arrangement
for
Egypt
and
called
on
their
G8
counterparts
to
undertake
similar
measures.
“A
debt
swap
will
enable
Egypt
to
channel
its
debt
payments
toward
underwriting
swift,
sustainable
job
creation,”
the
letter
said.
(Reuters)
SODIC
reports
a
1Q2011
net
loss
of
EGP15.7
million
on
weak
delivers;
strong
pre-sales
in
1Q2011
Sixth
of
October
for
Development
and
Investment
Company
(SODIC)
[OCDI.CA]
has
reported
a
1Q2011
net
loss
of
EGP15.7
million
compared
to
a
net
profit
of
EGP29.7
million
in
4Q2010,
and
a
net
loss
of
EGP11.3
million
in
1Q2010.
We
had
expected
a
net
profit
of
EGP17.1
million
in
1Q2011,
assuming
stronger
quarterly
deliveries
of
units
in
the
Allegria
project,
as
well
as
a
stronger
gross
profit
margin
on
these
deliveries.
Total
revenues
of
EGP42
million
in
1Q2011
came
in
significantly
below
our
forecast
of
EGP143
million.
We
had
expected
the
company
to
deliver
54
villas
in
1Q2011.
The
company
delivered
22
units
only,
down
from
110
units
in
4Q2010.
This
translated
into
gross
revenues
of
EGP52
million
from
Allegria,
down
from
EGP241
million
in
4Q2010.
The
company
reversed
a
historical
sale
of
one
villa
worth
EGP14.6
million,
which
was
directly
subtracted
from
its
quarterly
top
line.
This
reversed
unit
sale,
which
had
historically
generated
a
gross
margin
of
53%,
pushed
down
the
gross
margin
for
Allegria
deliveries
in
1Q2011
to
9%
compared
to
26%
in
4Q2010
and
16%
in
3Q2010.
Excluding
the
impact
of
sale
reversal,
deliveries
of
units
in
Allegria
generated
a
gross
margin
of
21%
in
1Q2011.
Management
has
indicated
that
deliveries
are
back
on
track,
and
the
company
expects
to
deliver
500
units
in
2011.
SODIC
closed
1Q2011
with
cash
and
cash
equivalents
of
EGP889
million,
down
from
EGP945
million
as
at
the
end
of
2010.
It
reported
total
receivables
of
EGP1,949
million
compared
to
EGP2,118
million
as
of
end-‐2010.
(Company
Disclosure,
Jan
Pawel
Hasman,
Shaza
El
Kady)
SODIC:
EGP65.24,
MCap:
USD398
million,
OCDI
EY
/
OCDI.CA
Juhayna’s
Deputy
CEO
to
leave
the
company
Juhayna
Food
Industries
(JUFO.CA)
announced
that
its
Deputy
Chief
Executive
Officer
Nabil
Skaria,
who
has
been
with
Juhayna
for
three
years,
will
leave
the
company
effective
31
May
2011.
Juhayna’s
press
release
added
that
“[Skaria]
contributed
to
the
development
and
success
of
the
Group
as
well
as
keeping
up
with
the
company’s
fast
pace
of
growth.”
(Press
Release)
Olympic
Group
reports
1Q2011
results:
EGP35
million
net
loss
Olympic
Group
(OG)
[OLGR.CA]
reported
a
1Q2011
consolidated
net
loss
of
EGP35
million
compared
to
a
net
profit
of
EGP53
million
in
1Q2010,
with
the
decline
mainly
coming
from
core
operations.
Consolidated
revenue
(including
B
Tech
and
Namaa)
fell
39%
Y-‐o-‐Y
to
EGP396
million.
Reported
gross
profit,
including
depreciation
expense,
fell
60%
Y-‐o-‐Y
to
EGP67
million,
with
the
margin
contracting
to
17%
from
26%
in
1Q2010.
Financial
statements
showed
an
operating
loss
of
EGP17
million
versus
an
operating
profit
of
EGP71
million
in
1Q2010
and
an
FX
loss
of
EGP6
million
compared
to
a
slight
gain
last
year,
with
net
interest
expense
coming
in
slightly
higher
Y-‐o-‐Y.
In
its
1Q2011
earnings
release,
management
indicated
that
consolidated
results
were
driven
by:
i)
a
48%
decline
in
local
sales
(affected
by
local
political
events/curfew
measures),
a
36%
decline
in
exports
(also
affected
by
political
instability
in
OG’s
main
export
markets),
and
a
13%
decline
in
B.
Tech
sales
(fully
consolidated
retail
arm);
ii)
fixed/overhead
manufacturing
costs
along
with
low
factory
utilisation
and
sales
volume;
ii)
an
adverse
sales
mix,
with
relatively
low
volume
contribution
from
high-‐margin
automatic
washing
machines;
and
iii)
raw
material
cost
pressures.
We
are
suspending
our
coverage
on
the
stock
as
EFG
Hermes
Investment
Banking
is
advising
Olympic
Group
on
a
transaction
with
Electrolux.
(Company
Disclosure,
Nour
Farrag)
Telenor
expects
Vimpelcom
arbitration
to
end
by
1H2012
Telenor
said
that
it
expected
the
arbitration
for
its
shareholder
rights
in
Vimpelcom
to
be
concluded
by
1H2012,
according
to
Reuters.
Telenor
plans
to
present
its
initial
statement
of
claim
to
the
arbitration
panel
in
early
June
2011.
Telenor
said
that
it
had
initially
decided
to
seek
arbitration
to
avoid
the
dilution
of
its
stake
in
Vimpelcom
following
the
merger
with
Naguib
Sawiris’s
Wind
Telecom.
A
Telenor
spokesperson
said
that
the
company
remained
committed
to
its
investment
in
Vimpelcom
and
regards
it
as
a
strategic
asset.
(Reuters)
HDB
and
Egyptian
Arab
Land
Bank
dropped
by
the
government
The
Housing
and
Development
Bank
(HDB)
[HDBK.CA]
and
Egyptian
Arab
Land
Bank
merger
plans
where
dropped
by
the
government.
Egyptian
Arab
Land
Bank,
the
fourth
largest
state-‐owned
bank
by
assets,
was
restructured
along
with
HDB
in
order
to
be
merged
before
the
end
of
2012.
According
to
the
Central
Bank
of
Egypt’s
Deputy
Governor
Hisham
Ramez,
HDB,
60%
owned
by
the
government,
is
not
planned
to
merge
with
Egyptian
Arab
Land
Bank.
(Reuters)
BG
to
invest
USD250
million
in
Egypt
licences
BG
Group
Plc
plans
to
invest
USD250
million
in
drilling
three
exploratory
wells
in
offshore
concessions
this
year
and
in
2012,
Egypt’s
Oil
Ministry
said,
citing
a
company
manager.
BG
plans
to
drill
two
wells
for
USD50
million
in
the
El
Manzala
block
this
year
and
a
well
at
a
cost
of
USD200
million
in
El
Burg
before
the
end
of
next
year,
the
ministry
said,
citing
Sami
Iskander,
BG’s
Executive
Vice
President
and
Managing
Director
for
Africa,
Middle
East
and
Asia.
The
company
produces
over
35%
of
Egypt’s
total
gas.
(Bloomberg)
Saudi
Arabia
News
Private
sector
credit
growth
slows,
but
outlook
remains
strong
Private
sector
credit
growth
in
Saudi
Arabia
slowed
in
April
to
0.5%
M-‐o-‐M,
down
from
1.2%
in
March,
and
to
6.9%
Y-‐o-‐Y,
from
7.0%
in
March,
after
a
steady
acceleration
in
1Q2011.
We,
however,
do
not
see
this
slowdown
as
a
trend,
with
the
expected
strong
demand
for
credit
by
both
the
corporate
and
retail
sectors
supported
by
the
strong
macroeconomic
environment.
We
maintain
our
2011
private
sector
credit
growth
forecast
at
9.0%.
The
monthly
monetary
data
released
by
SAMA
showed
that
money
supply
(M3)
accelerated
to
17.2
%
Y-‐o-‐Y
in
April,
up
from
13.8%
in
March,
which
we
believe
was
a
result
of
the
rise
in
net
foreign
assets
(NFA)
position.
NFAs
held
by
SAMA
rose
by
27.6%
Y-‐o-‐Y
in
April,
likely
driven
by
the
rise
in
oil
revenue,
and
will
reflect
a
widening
in
the
fiscal
surplus.
We
do
not
expect
that
the
acceleration
in
money
supply
will
lead
to
inflationary
pressure,
with
a
gradual
rise
in
private
sector
credit
growth,
although
we
do
see
inflation
accelerating
going
forward
on
higher
food
and
producer
price
inflation
feeding
into
consumer
prices.
(Monica
Malik,
Murad
Ansari)
EFG
Hermes
Research
Nasr
City
Housing
&
Development
Co.
(MNHD)
-
Reinitiate
Coverage:
Dispute-Free
Land
Bank
Key
Value
Driver,
Limited
Downside
Risks;
Buy
-
Initiation
of
Coverage
-
25
May
2011
Reinitiate
Coverage
with
FV
of
EGP28.40/Share,
Buy
Rating:
We
reinitiate
coverage
on
MNHD,
with
a
fair
value
(FV)
of
EGP28.40/share,
which
offers
29%
upside
potential
to
the
current
share
price.
The
company’s
dispute-‐ free,
centralised
and
fully-‐owned
land
bank
of
c10
million
sqm
is,
in
our
view,
its
principal
value
driver.
We
like
the
company’s
limited
exposure
to
current
political
risks,
readiness
for
retail
land
sales,
diversified
management
team,
connection
to
the
current
government,
and
unleveraged
balance
sheet
with
a
debt-‐to-‐equity
ratio
of
only
c6%.
Dispute-‐Free
Land
Bank
with
Limited
Downside
Risks…:
We
believe
that
MNHD’s
dispute-‐free
and
centrally
located
land
bank
will
limit
share
price
volatility,
especially
as
other
developers
struggle
with
land-‐related
court
cases.
The
company
sits
on
one
of
the
oldest
land
banks
under
our
coverage,
which
it
obtained
through
presidential
decrees,
mostly
before
the
1980s.
All
of
its
historical
disputes
with
local
institutions,
such
as
the
army,
have
been
resolved,
while
its
reported
land
bank
faces
no
legal
issues
to
date.
…and
a
Play
on
Affordable
Housing
Demand:
The
company
is
strategically
positioned
to
benefit
from
pent-‐up
demand
for
middle
income
and
affordable
housing,
in
our
view.
As
the
Egyptian
property
market
decelerates
on
legal
and
political
uncertainties
faced
by
certain
developers,
we
expect
demand
in
MNHD’s
target
segments
to
hold
up
relatively
well,
particularly
because
the
company
owns
an
inventory
of
units
nearing
completion
in
Cairo’s
central
areas.
The
recent
launch
of
a
budget
housing
project
in
Sixth
of
October
City
has
the
potential
to
fuel
the
company’s
top
line
over
the
coming
two
to
three
years,
in
our
view.
Turnaround
Story
Geared
for
Positive
Catalysts:
MNHD’s
ongoing
turnaround
initiated
by
its
new
management
team
is
on
the
right
track,
in
our
view,
to
transform
the
company
into
an
important
player
in
Cairo’s
residential
real
estate
scene.
We
believe
that
the
transformation
is
likely
to
generate
a
number
of
positive
catalysts,
such
as
new
project
launches
or
significant
land
sales,
which
could
trigger
share
price
revaluations.
Aside
from
the
overall
industry
risk,
we
see
little
risk
to
the
company’s
operation,
especially
given
the
company’s
relatively
simple
business
model.
(Jan
Pawel
Hasman,
Shaza
El
Kady)
[Note
–
EFG
Hermes
is
not
responsible
for
the
accuracy
of
news
items
taken
from
other
media.]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Our
investment
recommendations
take
into
account
both
risk
and
expected
return.
We
base
our
fair
value
estimate
on
a
fundamental
analysis
of
the
company’s
future
prospects,
after
having
taken
perceived
risk
into
consideration.
We
have
conducted
extensive
research
to
arrive
at
our
investment
recommendations
and
fair
value
estimates
for
the
company
or
companies
mentioned
in
this
report.
Although
the
information
in
this
report
has
been
obtained
from
sources
that
EFG
Hermes
believes
to
be
reliable,
we
do
not
guarantee
its
accuracy,
and
such
information
may
be
condensed
or
incomplete.
Readers
should
understand
that
financial
projections,
fair
value
estimates
and
statements
regarding
future
prospects
may
not
be
realized.
All
opinions
and
estimates
included
in
this
report
constitute
our
judgment
as
of
this
date
and
are
subject
to
change
without
notice.
This
research
report
is
prepared
for
general
circulation
and
is
intended
for
general
information
purposes
only.
It
is
not
intended
as
an
offer
or
solicitation
with
respect
to
the
purchase
or
sale
of
any
security.
It
is
not
tailored
to
the
specific
investment
objectives,
financial
situation
or
needs
of
any
specific
person
that
may
receive
this
report.
We
strongly
advise
potential
investors
to
seek
financial
guidance
when
determining
whether
an
investment
is
appropriate
to
their
needs.
No
part
of
this
document
may
be
reproduced
without
the
written
permission
of
EFG
Hermes.
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