Senior marketing analytics team leader with expertise in creating effective mark

eting programs based on predictive models for customer segmentation, market mix
modeling and demand forecasting. Experience in integrating macro/business condi
tions with microeconomic analysis for financial impact analysis.
Expertise
Market Mix Modeling/promotion lift, multi-channel media optimization, campaign/c
hannel ROI
Demand/sales forecasting, macro/micro business conditions analysis and scenario
simulation
Pricing and elasticity, control tests, microeconomic analysis and cost accountin
g
Strategy and brand position, market opportunity and competitive analysis
CRM and Loyalty programs, segmentation, clustering, CHAID, response modeling
Professional History
Leading Edge Analytics - SAS Alliance R&D Partner - Jan 2001-Current
Assist clients with innovative methods to solve complex marketing problems.
- Supported revamping the consumer credit approval process for a major auto fin
ance company to cope with recalls and poor recent sales by prudently expediting
loan approvals. Analysis examines difference in attrition rates by segment based
on credit factors such as FICO and loan size relative to income. Other researc
h includes attrition forecasting using monthly curves to support earning and cas
h flow forecasting. Projects include extensive support for legacy systems using
SAS macros and Enterprise Guide projects in a server based environment.
- Prototyped an animated video content delivery via mobile phones using a collab
orative filtering survey research process based on fractional sampling and a mul
ti-step path model, to test content, predict consumer attitudes/purchase behavi
or and optimize ad message selection for mobile/online campaigns. Model was esti
mated using SAS macros and proc CALIS structural equations modeling. Concept was
demonstrated to China Unicom and presented at Chinese E Commerce Association to
the Ministry of Technology.
- Developed SmartCompsTM as a branded SaaS application to support Fox Studios po
sition as category manager for Walmart and Target entertainment centers in forec
asting new release DVD sales. SmartComps is an knowledge system combining user
interactive judgment inputs with an automated learning procedure to estimate eco
nometric models and predict DVD sales based on comparable movie theater and sale
s results. Architecture included a web server based SAS stored procedures to int
erface to Oracle database.
- Served as analytics director for Gillette during P&G acquisition to rebuild co
nfidence in Pulsar after the launch was aborted by merger disruptions. Used max
imum likelihood models with extracts from Nielsen sales and trial and repeat pan
el data/takeup curves along with advertising, price, competitive price and in-st
ore promotions to predict weekly sales. Modeling including adbank GRP/TRP and d
iminishing returns effects to drive new product sales. Other models included pr
ice and cross-price and size elasticities for price optimization by chain recomm
endations.

- Used SAS base and macros in a server environment to build a customer/asset ret
ention DM system for a major mutual fund manager to predict customer attrition b
ehavior with Bayesian type of inheritance model with individual "posterior" prob
ability linked to group level "prior" probabilities such as by financial plannin
g agent, portfolio characteristics such as allocation and Morning Star fund rati
ngs and economic measures such as stock market performance and economic conditio
ns. Models were estimated as multi-stage path models and forecast simulations w
ere used for evaluations. Results were provided via drill-down dash boards that
enabled campaign planners to clearly identify customer most-at-risk and type of
risk in order to create customized script themes for call center contacts.
- Used SAS base and regression/logistic regression to support a loyalty program
servicer in retaining retail and online clients, including restaurants, grocery/
drug stores, online and retail fashion merchandisers and services. Analytics in
cluded customer segmentation, advertising/adbank and promotion response modeling
, sales forecasting and assortment turn rates and seasonality. Results showed t
he value of the cross-merchant promotion strategies and end-of-season promotion.

Manager Market Analysis - Ameritrade 1998-2001

Built an award winning analytics/DM team supporting segment based marketing prog
rams with a media optimization system.
- Utilized portfolio/trading patterns to segment customers by Lifetime Value and
align services with differentiated lite sites for novices/fundholders and advan
ced trading platforms for active investors and daytraders. Segmentation was util
ized to drive all CRM systems, message testing/personalization and direct market
ing/e-mail/ advertising media targeting/response analysis and product/service re
commendations. Segmentation included clustering and CHAID analysis using busine
ss rules for trading behavior and demographics.
Developed the market mix model/media manager that optimized $240 million in mult
i-channel advertising and brought in high asset customers with an acquisition co
st 20% below the industry average. Media mix database tracked all broadcast/cab
le, print, newspaper, online and direct/e-mail marketing programs. Model was bu
ilt in using regression with routines based on state-space type of distributed l
ag (canonical) correlations, TRP and ad banks, instrumental variables for cross
channel impacts, and dummy variables and interaction terms for ad quality/campai
gn/theme/offer testing and seasonality. Strategy analysis included forecast sim
ulations with results presented as stack charts showing number of new accounts g
enerated by media. Operational weekly reports included media/channel rankings b
y prospects with potential customer value and ROI by campaign and customer segme
nt. Forecasts provided early warnings on drops in growth rates and the need for
new offers. Using this system, Ameritrade managed marketing expenses and profit
ably quadrupled the customer base in less than 2 years bringing in customer with
twice the asset value of E trade but with an acquisition cost 20% below industr
y average.
- Spearheaded the WinBack CRM system, implemented in less than 90 days, to reduc
e customer losses by dealing with dissatisfaction due to operations issues and c
ompetitive marketing. Prioritized offers retained key customers by countering b
ut not over-reacting to competitive offers. The system proved highly effective
and became the springboard for a new premier customer service call center.
- Co-invented the Ameritrade Index infomercial site to help launch online tradin
g by changing public perceptions of online investors as destabilizers using a re
volutionary investment analysis (US Patent 6,901,383) on an Amazon-like website
showing stocks bought versus sold. Product launch included a survey supporting
statistical methods by Roper Starch and endorsement by the Economics Department
of the University of Chicago.
Research Director The Gallup Organization 1993-1997
Product manager and senior scientist responsible for applying data mining/path m
odeling to survey research.
- Developed market mix models that included product life-cycle effects and adban
ks to show how advertising helped top-of-mind, ad awareness and brand preference
. Subways models integrated advertising TRPs, ad awareness, in-store features a
nd displays, special direct marketing promotion offers/campaign themes and how i
nventory shortage had impacted promotion sales. Results highlighted advertising
and promotion impacts in extending seasonal shoulders.
- Aquafreshs model included product lifecycle, pricing and cross (competitor) pr
icing, distribution and the effectiveness of advertising in supporting both intr
oduction of Kids and Sensitive toothpaste and in reversing product declines and
extending the life of the current products.
-Served as Analytics Manager for Blockbuster during its merger with Viacom. Tea
m won the Customer Service Award for maintaining its market share by applying CH
AID data mining methods to its customer satisfaction survey to provide critical
insights that enabled Blockbuster to parry competitive efforts made by Hollywood
video. Other projects included control store tests to assess the value of manag
er promotion specials and support renegotiation with Coke to reduce costs.
- Developed MarketSizer to support due diligence for a $6 billion investment in
global mobile phones based on concept test/purchase intent surveys. Micro-econo
mic analytics included Bass curves for market growth based on long-run marginal
revenue and demand curves. Curves were displayed as graphs that clearly showed
growth in demand shifts as the market evolved from enthusiastic early adopters t
o more conservative user segments.
- Served as product manager for SmartChart and consulted with John Deere and Cig
na on using it to support TQM teams CRM projects to enhance customer satisfactio
n and experience consistency. System displayed survey result drilldowns on prod
uct attribute and service department performance with enhancement priority chart
s and trended process control charts to monitor progress. Process control chart
s were well received by insurance and hospital medical directors as their format
was similar to medical charts. SmartChart success led to Gallup-wide implement
ation of automated analytics.
Education
Master of Science - Econometrics and Microeconomics, University of Nebraska, 198
3
Bachelor of Arts - Economics and Political Science, University of Nebraska, 1972

Tools Used
SAS Base and Macros, and Stat: Regression, Logistic Regression
CALIS Structural Equations Modeling - Factor Analysis, Latent Variables
Enterprise Miner for CHAID and neural networks
ETS statespace with canonical correlations and distributed lag
SPSS
AMOS path modeling, hierarchical clustering, factor analysis
Wards Systems
Neural Networks for nonlinear path modeling
ANGOSS
Knowledge Studio - CHAID