y_t

БДНБ улирлаар
Он t Улирал /2005 оны үнээр,
сая төгрөгөөр/ 4 tseg 2 tseg Yt-2tseg St TRt+Ct+It
2005 1 I 480952 -239662 720613.9906
2 II 765318 70440.531 694877.4688
3 III 735863 694894.6 698062.3 37800.66 35727.988 700135.0125
4 IV 797445.3 701230.1 704484.2 92961.1 133493.47 663951.8281
2006 5 I 506294.1 707738.3 711991.9 -205698 -239662 745956.0906
6 II 791350.8 716245.4 735300.9 56049.86 70440.531 720910.2688
7 III 769891.5 754356.5 761134.3 8757.188 35727.988 734163.5125
8 IV 949889.4 767912.2 780877.8 169011.6 133493.47 816395.9281
2007 9 I 560517 793843.5 807451.3 -246934 -239662 800178.9906
10 II 895076 821059.2 826266.1 68809.88 70440.531 824635.4688
11 III 878754.2 831473.1 841972.8 36781.43 35727.988 843026.2125
12 IV 991545.2 852472.5 863682.5 127862.7 133493.47 858051.7281
2008 13 I 644514.4 874892.6 884801.1 -240287 -239662 884176.3906
14 II 984756.4 894709.7 900188.7 84567.74 70440.531 914315.8688
15 III 958022.8 905667.6 902203.4 55819.45 35727.988 922294.8125
16 IV 1035376.9 898739.1 894991.6 140385.3 133493.47 901883.4281
2009 17 I 616800.2 891244.2 886282.6 -269482 -239662 856462.1906
18 II 954776.7 881321 886195.3 68581.43 70440.531 884336.1688
19 III 918330.3 891069.5 35727.988 882602.3125
20 IV 1074370.9 133493.47 940877.4281

он I II III IV
2005 37800.66 92961.1
2006 -205698 56049.8625000001 8757.188 169011.6
2007 -246934 68809.875 36781.43 127862.7
2008 -240287 84567.7375000001 55819.45 140385.3
2009 -269482 68581.4250000001
dyndaj -240600 69502.225 34789.68 132555.2 -3753.225
ulirliin nuluu -239662 70440.53125 35727.99 133493.5 0
TRt Ct+It Ct It
687195 33418.99 33418.991
БДНБ улирлаар /2005 оны үнээр, сая
700700 -5822.531 -5822.531 төгрөгөөр/
714205 -14070 -9098.122 -14069.99
727710 -63758.17 -22543.87 -16194.55 -47563.63 1200000
741215 4741.091 -28191.66 -16016.41 20757.504
1000000
754720 -33809.73 -18444.47 -14478.34 -19331.39
768225 -34061.49 -4704.042 -10197.56 -23863.93 800000
781730 34665.93 -2473.166 1879.496 32786.432
795235 4943.991 8445.022 4388.1585 555.83214 600000
808740 15895.47 19717.67 14206.89 1688.5786
400000
822245 20781.21 19768.76 26437.941 -5656.729
835750 22301.73 29091.13 28061.353 -5759.625 200000
849255 34921.39 35118 29085.558 5835.8321
862760 51555.87 33384.45 20127.233 31428.636 0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
876265 46029.81 19561.54 12523.655 33506.157 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
889770 12113.43 6088.494 2525.8817 9587.5464 2005 2006 2007 2008
903275 -46812.81 -13759.22 -2878.97 -43933.84
916780 -32443.83 -23547.69 -32443.83
930285 -47682.69 -47682.69
943790 -2912.572 -2912.572
40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-10000

-20000

40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-10000
-20000
-30000
-40000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
-10000
-20000
-30000
-40000
-50000
-60000
ы үнээр, сая
St
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
-50000
-100000
-150000

IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -200000

8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
2007 2008 2009 -250000
-300000

1000000
900000 f(x) = 13504.9767528195 x + 673689.999095395
800000
700000
600000
Column M 500000 Column I
Linear (Column
400000
300000
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 200000
100000
0

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Column N
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Column N
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

99095395

Column I
Linear (Column I)
 Даатгалын
Он t Улирал сангийн нийт 4tseg 2tseg Yt/2tseg st
орлого TRtCtIt TRt
2014 1 I 187664.4 0.297405 631005.3 64720.77
2 II 532585.6 0.769885 691772.5 66965.81
3 III 874403.6 707692.3 708031.5 1.234978 1.219869 716801.3 69288.73
4 IV 1236115.6 708370.7 710773.3 1.739114 1.71284 721675.9 71692.22
2015 5 I 190377.9 713175.9 716411.3 0.265738 0.297405 640129.2 74179.08
6 II 551806.6 719646.6 731025.3 0.754839 0.769885 716738.6 76752.21
7 III 900286.3 742404.1 749964.8 1.200438 1.219869 738018.9 79414.6
8 IV 1327145.5 757525.5 775207.4 1.711988 1.71284 774821.5 82169.34
2016 9 I 250863.4 792889.4 821417.7 0.305403 0.297405 843506.5 85019.63
10 II 693262.4 849946.1 890501.4 0.778508 0.769885 900474.7 87968.8
11 III 1128513 931056.7 938253 1.202781 1.219869 925110.1 91020.27
12 IV 1651587.8 945449.4 962527.1 1.715887 1.71284 964239.2 94177.59
2017 13 I 308434.4 979604.7 1008728 0.305766 0.297405 1037084 97444.43
14 II 829883.6 1037851 1069891 0.775671 0.769885 1077931 100824.6
15 III 1361499.3 1101931 1105424 1.231653 1.219869 1116103 104322
16 IV 1907908.4 1108917 1121654 1.700977 1.71284 1113886 107940.7
2018 17 I 336376.5 1134391 1153481 0.291619 0.297405 1131037 111685
18 II 931780.9 1172570 1202075 0.775144 0.769885 1210285 115559.1
19 III 1514214.1 1231580 1240939 1.220217 1.219869 1241293 119567.6
20 IV 2143946.9 1250298 1272072 1.685398 1.71284 1251691 123715.2
2019 21 I 411249.8 1293846 1330143 0.309177 0.297405 1382792 128006.7
22 II 1105973 1366441 1414425 0.781924 0.769885 1436542 132447
23 III 1804593.2 1462410 1466362 1.23066 1.219869 1479334 137041.3
24 IV 2527822.1 1470315 1464721 1.725805 1.71284 1475807 141795
2020 25 I 442872.1 1459127 1442115 0.307099 0.297405 1489119 146713.6
26 II 1061220.2 1425102 1407113 0.754183 0.769885 1378413 151802.8
27 III 1668495.4 1389124 1.219869 1367766 157068.5
28 IV 2383907 1.71284 1391786 162516.9

он I II III IV
2014 1.23497840906405 1.739114
2015 0.265738 0.754839 1.20043813391833 1.711988
2016 0.305403 0.778508 1.20278109415102 1.715887
2017 0.305766 0.775671 1.23165325618497 1.700977
2018 0.291619 0.775144 1.22021661806217 1.685398
2019 0.309177 0.781924 1.23065983394196 1.725805
2020 0.307099 0.754183
dundaj 0.297467 0.770045 1.22012122422041 1.713195 4.000828
ulirliin nuluu 0.297405 0.769885 1.21986882829317 1.71284 4

0.297405 0.769885 1.21986882829317 1.71284

0
CtIt 5 tseg 7 tseg 9 tseg 11 tseg ct it
9.749656 1 9.749656
Даатгалын санги
10.33023 1 10.33023
10.34514 9.824169 1 10.34514 3000000
10.06631 9.741906 9.678918 1 10.06631
2500000
8.629511 9.534508 9.633192 9.678146 1 8.629511
9.338344 9.351394 9.574775 9.732217 9.773035 9.718379 0.960895
2000000
9.29324 9.322396 9.559226 9.713722 9.817478 9.785993 0.949647
9.42957 9.643753 9.573151 9.701876 9.845895 9.849719 0.957344 1500000
9.921314 9.80884 9.803009 9.765934 9.877351 9.912805 1.000858
10.2363 9.997897 9.989364 9.995005 9.934836 9.981342 1.025543 1000000
10.16378 10.24055 10.18907 10.14615 10.08846 10.06565 1.009749
500000
10.23852 10.39452 10.37036 10.26017 10.16016 10.16098 1.007632
10.64283 10.48698 10.42723 10.33766 10.26744 10.24837 1.038489
0
10.69115 10.51811 10.41162 10.399 10.35398 10.31534 1.036433 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
10.69864 10.49581 10.45584 10.41513 10.37182 10.38037 1.03066
10.31942 10.46191 10.47627 10.40999 10.42329 10.43406 0.989013
10.12703 10.39998 10.40122 10.47265 10.48533 10.46618 0.967596 TRtC
10.4733 10.28376 10.41713 10.49525 10.5359 10.48488 0.998895 1600000
f(x) = 625516.43990277 exp( 0.03407
10.38151 10.38037 10.43821 10.50677 10.51455 10.46387 0.992129 R² = 0.942269202991666
1400000
10.11752 10.5242 10.50612 10.47448 10.46534 10.40115 0.972731
1200000
10.8025 10.5885 10.54626 10.45563 10.31822 10.2999 1.048797
10.84617 10.59381 10.50005 10.33933 10.17173 10.2837 1.054696 1000000
10.7948 10.60027 10.31417 10.14319 10.02964 10.27078 1.051021 800000
10.40804 10.25583 10.11282 9.941243 1 10.40804
600000
10.14984 9.82821 9.793024 1 10.14984
9.080288 9.382038 1 9.080288 400000
8.708086 1 8.708086 200000
8.563944 1 8.563944
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

TRt
180000
160000
f(x) = 62551.0000000001 exp( 0.0341 x )
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2

Chart Title
10.8

10.6

10.4

10.2

10

9.8

9.6

9.4

9.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
 Даатгалын сангийн нийт орлого

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

TRtCtIt
(x) = 625516.43990277 exp( 0.03407734382436 x )
R² = 0.942269202991666

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

TRt

p( 0.0341 x )

0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Chart Title

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
on t budjet-Yt 12 tseg 2 tseg Yt/2 tseg St TRtCtIt TRt CtIt
2007 01 1 153,143.0 0.1348237 1135876 ### ###
02 2 233,364.2 0.2698447 864809.2 ### ###
03 3 342,264.3 0.4455742 768142.2 ### ###
04 4 452,191.4 0.5973823 756954.8 ### ###
05 5 581,309.3 0.7382192 787448.1 ### ###
06 6 737,321.8 875,507.9 0.9101404 810118.7 ### ###
07 7 868,362.6 877,364.4 876,436.1 0.990788 1.0455256 830551.3 ### ###
08 8 1,051,858.3 884,868.9 881,116.6 1.193779 1.222553 860378.5 ### ###
09 9 1,231,128.1 897,766.4 891,317.6 1.381245 1.4082799 874207 ### ###
10 10 1,407,503.2 917,130.3 907,448.3 1.551056 1.5645828 899602.9 ### ###
11 11 1,596,458.2 937,067.8 927,099.1 1.721993 1.7176117 929463.9 ### ###
12 12 1,851,189.8 961,726.7 949,397.3 1.949858 1.9454626 951542.2 ### ###
2008 01 13 175,421.4 993,673.2 977,700.0 0.179423 0.1348237 1301117 ### ###
02 14 323,418.0 1,023,109.5 1,008,391.4 0.320727 0.2698447 1198534 ### ###
03 15 497,034.6 1,055,439.8 1,039,274.7 0.478251 0.4455742 1115492 ### ###
04 16 684,558.2 1,086,056.6 1,070,748.2 0.639327 0.5973823 1145930 ### ###
05 17 820,559.8 1,112,511.0 1,099,283.8 0.746449 0.7382192 1111540 ### ###
06 18 1,033,228.3 1,137,943.7 1,125,227.4 0.91824 0.9101404 1135241 ### ###
07 19 1,251,720.5 1,130,306.9 1,134,125.3 1.103688 1.0455256 1197217 ### ###
08 20 1,405,094.0 1,118,112.6 1,124,209.7 1.24985 1.222553 1149311 ### ###
09 21 1,619,091.9 1,104,520.3 1,111,316.4 1.456914 1.4082799 1149695 ### ###
10 22 1,774,904.3 1,086,596.2 1,095,558.2 1.620091 1.5645828 1134427 ### ###
11 23 1,913,911.1 1,070,975.9 1,078,786.1 1.774134 1.7176117 1114286 ### ###
12 24 2,156,382.6 1,053,733.4 1,062,354.7 2.029814 1.9454626 1108416 ### ###
2009 01 25 83,778.9 1,031,935.5 1,042,834.5 0.080338 0.1348237 621396.2 ### ###
02 26 177,086.7 1,009,665.8 1,020,800.7 0.173478 0.2698447 656254.1 ### ###
03 27 333,926.9 985,692.6 997,679.2 0.334704 0.4455742 749430.6 ### ###
04 28 469,469.2 964,416.4 975,054.5 0.48148 0.5973823 785877.3 ### ###
05 29 633,116.6 946,700.4 955,558.4 0.662562 0.7382192 857626.9 ### ###
06 30 826,318.4 933,084.0 939,892.2 0.879163 0.9101404 907902.1 ### ###
07 31 990,145.9 938,992.2 936,038.1 1.057805 1.0455256 947031.7 ### ###
08 32 1,137,856.8 951,456.9 945,224.5 1.203795 1.222553 930721.8 ### ###
09 33 1,331,413.6 969,866.1 960,661.5 1.385934 1.4082799 945418.3 ### ###
10 34 1,519,590.2 995,823.1 982,844.6 1.546114 1.5645828 971243.1 ### ###
11 35 1,701,318.5 1,026,572.4 1,011,197.7 1.682479 1.7176117 990514 ### ###
12 36 1,992,985.8 1,061,015.1 1,043,793.7 1.909367 1.9454626 1024428 ### ###
2010 01 37 154,677.3 1,102,167.2 1,081,591.2 0.143009 0.1348237 1147256 ### ###
021 38 326,664.0 1,155,065.2 1,128,616.2 0.289438 0.2698447 1210563 ### ###
03 39 554,837.4 1,215,661.8 1,185,363.5 0.468074 0.4455742 1245219 ### ###
04 40 780,953.2 1,284,719.4 1,250,190.6 0.624667 0.5973823 1307292 ### ###
05 41 1,002,107.1 1,363,212.9 1,323,966.1 0.756898 0.7382192 1357466 ### ###
06 42 1,239,631.9 1,453,665.6 1,408,439.3 0.880146 0.9101404 1362023 ### ###
07 43 1,483,970.6 1,459,050.1 1,456,357.9 1.01896 1.0455256 1419354 ### ###
08 44 1,772,632.2 1,472,530.3 1,465,790.2 1.209336 1.222553 1449943 ### ###
09 45 2,058,573.0 1,503,409.5 1,487,969.9 1.383478 1.4082799 1461764 ### ###
10 46 2,348,281.8 1,539,955.7 1,521,682.6 1.543214 1.5645828 1500900 ### ###
11 47 2,643,240.3 1,587,363.8 1,563,659.8 1.690419 1.7176117 1538904 ### ###
12 48 3,078,418.6 1,647,950.2 1,617,657.0 1.903011 1.9454626 1582358 ### ###
2011 01 49 219,290.9 1,716,428.8 1,682,189.5 0.13036 0.1348237 1626502 ### ###
02 50 488,426.5 1,798,458.9 1,757,443.9 0.277919 0.2698447 1810028 ### ###
03 51 925,387.7 1,890,739.0 1,844,598.9 0.501674 0.4455742 2076843 ### ###
04 52 1,219,507.9 1,984,575.6 1,937,657.3 0.629372 0.5973823 2041420 ### ###
 05 53 1,571,004.6 2,085,990.9 2,035,283.3 0.771885 0.7382192 2128100 ### ###
06 54 1,966,668.2 2,196,174.5 2,141,082.7 0.918539 0.9101404 2160840 ### ###
07 55 2,305,714.6 2,205,054.2 2,200,614.4 1.047759 1.0455256 2205316 ### ###
08 56 2,756,992.6 2,220,587.9 2,212,821.0 1.245918 1.222553 2255111 ### ###
09 57 3,165,934.0 2,231,547.4 2,226,067.6 1.422209 1.4082799 2248086 ### ###
10 58 3,474,320.9 2,252,810.7 2,242,179.1 1.549529 1.5645828 2220605 ### ###
11 59 3,860,225.0 2,275,679.9 2,264,245.3 1.704862 1.7176117 2247437 ### ###
12 60 4,400,621.8 2,310,187.4 2,292,933.7 1.91921 1.9454626 2261993 ### ###
2012 01 61 325,846.3 2,348,880.4 2,329,533.9 0.139876 0.1348237 2416833 ### ###
02 62 674,831.3 2,379,547.5 2,364,214.0 0.285436 0.2698447 2500814 ### ###
03 63 1,056,901.7 2,408,324.0 2,393,935.8 0.441491 0.4455742 2372000 ### ###
04 64 1,474,667.9 2,449,462.1 2,428,893.1 0.607136 0.5973823 2468550 ### ###
05 65 1,845,434.9 2,490,070.0 2,469,766.1 0.74721 0.7382192 2499847 ### ###
06 66 2,380,757.9 2,537,372.7 2,513,721.3 0.947105 0.9101404 2615814 ### ###
07 67 2,770,030.6 1.0455256 2649414 ### ###
08 68 3,124,998.3 1.222553 2556125 ### ###
09 69 3,511,251.0 1.4082799 2493291 ### ###
10 70 3,967,979.1 1.5645828 2536126 ### ###
11 71 4,347,519.2 1.7176117 2531142 ### ###
12 72 4,968,253.7 1.9454626 2553765 ### ###

Жил I II III IV V VI VII VIII

2007 0.9907882 1.193779
2008 0.1794225306572 0.3207266689 0.4782514343 0.639327 0.7464495 0.91824 1.103688 1.24985
2009 0.0803376771088 0.1734782384 0.3347036873 0.48148 0.6625619 0.879163 1.0578052 1.203795
2010 0.1430090261192 0.2894376381 0.4680736496 0.624667 0.7568978 0.880146 1.0189601 1.209336
2011 0.1303604009492 0.2779186914 0.501674205 0.629372 0.771885 0.918539 1.0477595 1.245918
2012 0.1398761829659 0.2854358025 0.4414912644 0.607136 0.7472104 0.947105
average 0.1346011635601 0.2693994079 0.4448388481 0.596396 0.7370009 0.908638 1.0438002 1.220536
St 0.1348236543226 0.2698447152 0.4455741504 0.597382 0.7382192 0.91014 1.0455256 1.222553
Ct It
1 ###
1 ###
1135876
864809.2
budjet-Yt
1 ### 768142.2 6,000,000.0
1 ### 756954.8
5,000,000.0
1 ### 787448.1
1 ### 810118.7
4,000,000.0
1 ### 830551.3
1 ### 860378.5 3,000,000.0
1 ### 874207
1 ### 899602.9 2,000,000.0
### ### 929463.9
### ### 951542.2 1,000,000.0
### ### 1301117
### ### 1198534 0.0
### ### 1115492 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65
### ### 1145930
### ### 1111540
### ### 1135241
### ### 1197217
### ### 1149311
### ### 1149695 TRt
### ### 1134427 3000000
### ### 1114286
### ### 1108416 2500000
f(x) = 702751 exp( 0.018 x )
### ### 621396.2
### ### 656254.1 2000000
### ### 749430.6
### ### 785877.3 1500000
### ### 857626.9
1000000
### ### 907902.1
### ### 947031.7
500000
### ### 930721.8
### ### 945418.3 0
### ### 971243.1
1 5 9 1 3 1 7 2 1 2 5 2 9 3 3 3 7 4 1 4 5 4 9 5 3 57 61 65 69
### ### 990514
### ### 1024428
### ### 1147256
### ### 1210563
###
###
###
###
1245219
1307292
TRt
### ### 1357466 3000000
### ### 1362023
2500000
### ### 1419354 f(x) = 702751 exp( 0.018 x )
### ### 1449943
2000000
### ### 1461764 T
### ### 1500900 1500000 E
### ### 1538904
### ### 1582358 1000000
### ### 1626502
### ### 1810028 500000
### ### 2076843
### ### 2041420 0
1 6 1 1 1 6 2 1 26 31 3 6 4 1 4 6 51 56 61 66 7 1
 1000000

500000

0
### ### 2128100 1 6 1 1 1 6 2 1 26 31 3 6 4 1 4 6 51 56 61 66 7 1
### ### 2160840
### ### 2205316
### ### 2255111
### ### 2248086
### ### 2220605 1.4
### ### 2247437
### ### 2261993 1.2
### ### 2416833
### ### 2500814 1
1 ### 2372000
1 ### 2468550 0.8
1 ### 2499847
1 ### 2615814 0.6
1 ### 2649414
1 ### 2556125 0.4
1 ### 2493291
1 ### 2536126 0.2
1 ### 2531142
1 ### 2553765 0
1 4 7 10 13 1 6 19 22 2 5 2 8 31 34 37 4 0 4 3 4 6 49 5 2
IX X XI XII
1.3812451 1.551056 1.721993 1.949858
1.4569135 1.6200913 1.774134 2.029814
1.3859341 1.5461143 1.682479 1.909367
1.3834776 1.5432139 1.690419 1.903011
1.4222092 1.5495287 1.704862 1.91921

1.4059559 1.5620009 1.714777 1.942252 11.9802

1.4082799 1.5645828 1.717612 1.945463 12
et-Yt
2.5

1.5
budjet-Yt
1

0.5

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69

1.4

1.2

0.8
TRt
Exponential (TRt) 0.6 Column

0.4

0.2

0
5 3 57 61 65 69
1 1 14 17 20 2 3 26 2 9 3 2 35 38 4 1 4 4 47 50 5 3 5 6 59 6 2

TRt
It
1.8
1.6
1.4
TRt 1.2
Exponential (TRt) 1
Axis Title 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
4 6 51 56 61 66 7 1 0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34
 0.6
0.4
0.2
4 6 51 56 61 66 7 1 0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1
Column K
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2
31 34 37 4 0 4 3 4 6 49 5 2
0
1 4 7 1 0 13 1 6 19 2 2
 St

6 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68

Column K

0 5 3 5 6 59 6 2

It

It

13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70
13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1
Column L
0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
1 4 7 1 0 13 1 6 19 2 2 25 28 3 1 34 37 40 4 3 46 4 9 5 2 5 5 58 61 6 4 67 7 0
 St

7 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72
 〖𝑋 _^∗ 〗 _𝑡=𝐴∗( 〖𝑋 _^∗ 〗 _(𝑡−1)+𝑇_(𝑡 𝑇_𝑡=𝐵∗𝑇_(𝑡−1)+(1−𝐵)( 〖
−1) )+(1−𝐴)∗𝑋_𝑡 〖𝑋 _^∗ 〗 _(𝑡−1))
t Xt 〖𝑋 _^ 𝑇_𝑡 52
A 0.3
1 50.74 ∗〗 _ B 0.4 50.74
50.43
2 50.43 𝑛 50.43 -0.31 50 50.05 49.79
49.48
3 50.05 50.071 -0.3394 48.72
4 49.79 49.77248 -0.314872 48
47.64
5 49.48 49.47328 -0.305467 46.64
6 48.72 48.85434 -0.49355 46 4
7 47.64 47.85624 -0.796284
8 46.64 46.76599 -0.972665 44
9 45.95 45.903 -0.90686
10 45.2 45.13884 -0.821237 42
11 44.74 44.61328 -0.643831
12 44.23 44.15184 -0.5344 40
13 43.92 43.82923 -0.407323
14 43.4219
38
15 43.0146 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
16 42.6073

Прогноз (𝑋_(𝑛+ℎ)=) ̂ 〖𝑋 _^∗ 〗 _

𝑛+𝑛∗𝑇_𝑛
_(𝑡−1)+(1−𝐵)( 〖𝑋 _^∗ 〗 _𝑡−
〗 _(𝑡−1))

50.05 49.79
49.48
48.72
47.64
46.64
45.95
45.2
44.74 Column B
44.23
43.92
43.4219078232842
43.0145851068198
42.6072623903554

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
 𝑇_10=𝑋 ̅_10−𝑋 ̅_9

𝐹_(10−𝑗)=1/2∙(𝑋_(10−𝑗)/𝑋 ̅_(10−𝑗)
+𝑋_(6−𝑗)/𝑋 ̅_(6−𝑗) ),𝑗=0.1.2.3

𝑋 ̅_𝑡 𝐹_𝑡
𝑇_𝑡
S t Xt 4 цэг 2цэг
1 0.3
2 0.46 0.50375
1
3 0.345 0.51125 0.5075
4 0.91 0.5325 0.52188
5 0.33 0.55625 0.54438
6 0.545 0.58875 0.5725
2
7 0.44 0.63 0.60938 0.701
𝑇_𝑡=𝐵∙𝑇_(𝑡−1)+(1−𝐵)∙(𝑋 ̅−(𝑋_(𝑡−
8 1.04 0.66375 0.64688 1.676
9 0.495 0.69 0.67688 0.669
10 0.68 0.75125 0.72063 0.04375 0.948
3
11 0.545 0.765 0.77096 0.04704 0.70512 𝑋 ̅_𝑡=𝐴∙(𝑋 ̅_(𝑡−1)
12 1.285 0.8125 0.79242 0.03425 1.63785 〖 +𝑇 〗 _(𝑡−1))+(1−𝐴)∙𝑋_𝑡/𝐹 ̅_(𝑡−4)
13 0.55 0.84125 0.82455 0.03319 0.66755
14 0.87 0.915 0.88783 0.04824 0.97028
4
15 0.66 0.925 0.93604 0.04822 0.7051
3
16 1.58 0.955 0.97447 0.04333 1.62633
17 0.59 0.9975 0.95082 0.00984 0.63463 2.5
18 0.99 1.035 0.99049 0.02475 0.99074
5
19 0.83 1.04 1.09619 0.06523 0.74155 2
20 1.73 1.055 1.11258 0.04081 1.57636
21 0.61 1.0775 1.05729 -0.00724 0.59425 1.5
22 1.05 1.155 1.05493 -0.0048 0.99395
6
23 0.92 1.1775 1.14539 0.04283 0.78472 1
24 2.04 1.2225 1.24117 0.0693 1.62344
25 0.7 1.2575 1.24421 0.03617 0.5721 0.5
26 1.23 1.3275 1.25894 0.02545 0.98209
7
27 1.06 1.3575 1.31759 0.04205 0.79856 0
28 2.32 1.4025 1.39436 0.05941 1.65173 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 13 1 5 17 19 21 23 2

29 0.82 1.45 1.44354 0.0543 0.56926

30 1.41 1.5525 1.46677 0.03876 0.96753
8
31 1.25 1.53542 0.05371 0.80944 3.5
32 2.73 1.62097 0.06963 1.67444
3

2.5

2
 3.5

3
33 0.96
34 1.70 2.5
9
35 1.48
36 3.18 2

Прогноз 𝑋 ̂_(𝑛+ℎ)=(𝑋 ̅_𝑛+ℎ∗𝑇_𝑛 ) 1.5

𝐹_(𝑛+ℎ−4) 1.285
1 1.04
0.91 0.87
0.68 0
0.5 0.460.345 0.545 0.495 0.545 0.55
0.3 0.33 0.44
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 2 3 4
 A=0.5 B=0.5 C=0.3

−1)+(1−𝐵)∙(𝑋 ̅−(𝑋_(𝑡−1) ) ̅),

𝐹_𝑡=𝐶∙𝐹_(𝑡−4)+(1−𝐶)∙𝑋_𝑡/(𝑋_𝑡 ) ̅ , 𝑡=11…

−𝐴)∙𝑋_𝑡/𝐹 ̅_(𝑡−4)

Column C

9 1 1 13 1 5 17 19 21 23 2 5 27 2 9 31

Xt
3.18
2.73
2.32
2.04 1.70
1.73
1.58
 Xt
3.18
2.73
2.32
2.04 1.70
1.73
1.58 1.48 Xt
1.41
1.285 1.23 1.25
1.04 0.99 1.05 1.06 0.96
0.87 0.83 0.92 0.82
0.68 0.66 0.59 0.61 0.7
0.545 0.495 0.545 0.55
3 0.44

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9