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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Macro fundamentals for the North American aircraft market have been solid: aircraft
values and lease rates are getting a boost from healthy GDP growth and
unprecedented levels of passenger traffic. The 66.9 million revenue passenger miles
traveled in July was the highest monthly level achieved in U.S. history while GDP
expanded 3.6% year over year at June 30, 2005. Discounted air fares have been a
significant demand driver.
600
million
580
560
540
520
500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Air Transportation Association.
At the same time, new aircraft deliveries have been contained (Exhibit 2). By
necessity, airlines have had to use capacity more efficiently, leading to the highest
utilization levels ever seen in the U.S. when systemwide load factors reached 85% in
July (Exhibit 3, page 3). To serve rocketing demand with limited new capacity
coming on line, North American airline planes in storage have continued to decline
(Exhibit 4, page 3).
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50
40
30
20
10
0
8/01
10/01
12/01
2/02
4/02
6/02
8/02
10/02
12/02
2/03
4/03
6/03
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10/03
12/03
2/04
4/04
6/04
8/04
10/04
12/04
2/05
4/05
6/05
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
8/02
10/02
12/02
2/03
4/03
6/03
8/03
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12/03
2/04
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
The North American fleet is slimming. In-service widebodies have stayed flat over
the past 15 years, whereas the number of narrowbodies has gained 23% and regional
jets (RJs) expanded more than tenfold. Turboprops have declined by 37%.
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990 1995 2000 2005
Widebodies Narrowbodies RJ Turboprop
Lease rates have registered significant gains in the course of the past year for
in-production types (Exhibit 6, page 5). The biggest gains have been made by long-
range widebodies. In particular, the 767-300ER has registered a 45% improvement in
one year, as the mid-vintage monthly rental went to $387,000 from $266,000.
4
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
5
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Major North American airlines have continued to trim their fleets, with total in-
service aircraft declining to 3,276 in August 2005 from 3,370 a year earlier. So far in
2005, the biggest changes have been at United Airlines, which has phased out 37
active aircraft, and US Airways, which has eliminated 13 aircraft. On the other hand,
Southwest continues to expand, adding 20 planes in eight months.
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
American Airlines
American Airlines booked net income of $58 million in Q2 2005 as price increases
offset higher fuel cost. Changes in the fleet are focused on outgoing aircraft, as there
were no new deliveries in 2004, none scheduled for 2005 and only two 777s coming
in 2006. So far in 2005, a leased MD-83 has been returned and seven 767-200s and
two 767-200ERs were sold out of storage. The two sold 767-200ERs went to cargo
conversions and the one remaining in storage is scheduled for sale and conversion
in 2007.
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Continental Airlines
Continental registered net income of $100 million for Q2 2005 as the airline benefited
from fuller planes and higher yields. Continental took delivery of a 737-800 in July,
and six more are scheduled for the remainder of 2005. Also in the year, eight leased
ex-ATA 757s are scheduled to be integrated beginning in Q3. The airline has retired
its last two MD-82s with 24 MD-80s remaining in storage. Continental has placed a
firm order for 10 787 aircraft with delivery starting in 2009.
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Delta reported a $383 million net loss for the June 2005 quarter as the carrier missed
out on the yield gains experienced by competitors. Liquidity relief from the sale of
Atlantic Southeast Airlines may be less meaningful in the light of a $625 million
holdback on a new credit card processing agreement and high early pilot retirement
numbers.
We believe recent changes give some insight to Delta’s long-term fleet strategy.
Specifically, 737-200s are at the top of the list for elimination as seven have been
moved out of service thus far in 2005. These planes, which are mostly leased and
average 20 years in age, are still powered by dated JT8D engines. Also on the way
out are 737-300s when leases expire—five of these, all GE managed, expire in 2005
and these will transition back to the lessor. The 767-200s at 22 years average age and
only 13 in active service are another candidate for elimination, and one was retired
from service in Q2. These three types alone highlight 79 aircraft for elimination,
while replacement lift would be difficult to finance. This leads us to conclude that
Delta’s MD-88s, which make up a quarter of the airline’s fleet, are not in any near-
term danger.
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Northwest Airlines
Northwest Airlines had a rough Q2, reporting a net loss of $217 million as an 11.3%
gain in operating revenue did not keep pace with 15.5% higher operating expenses.
An older fleet makes Northwest more vulnerable to high fuel prices.
Thus far in 2005, Northwest has taken delivery of four A319s and two A330-320s
with two A320s still to be delivered. The airline has announced plans to reduce its
active DC-9 fleet by 30, eight of which will be permanent retirements. Also in Q2,
Northwest announced an order for 18 787s with a delivery window opening in 2008.
10
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
United Airlines
United appears likely to pass its three-year anniversary in debtor rehab before
potentially emerging in early 2006. Once the world’s second-largest airline, United
has reorganized without creating a shock to aircraft values and lease rates that
would have come from large-scale aircraft rejections. In evaluating risk to assets
from airline bankruptcies, the United case provides a few pointers:
The airline’s fleet decisions were not influenced by type as much as by cost
savings on each aircraft. As a result, the only types completely eliminated from
the active fleet were 767-200s and 767-200ERMs, a total of 18 planes.
Planes that were treated more harshly (737-300s and 737-500s) were gradually
taken out of United’s fleet from early 2003 through 2005. The fleet restructuring
process has been slowed by the airline’s strategic planning process and
negotiations with a diverse group of creditors, dampening the potential shock of
a large number of planes looking for new homes at once.
By negotiating as a group, EETC and PTC holders were able to use desirable
assets as negotiating leverage defending a large pool of aircraft. For example,
when creditors repossessed four 767s out of the 1993A PTC and 1993C PTC,
United was forced to cancel its Chicago to Buenos Aires service—the airline was
dependent on long-range widebodies for higher-yielding international service.
When United filed for bankruptcy in December 2002, it operated 567 aircraft, 463 of
which were financed through leases or mortgages and 95 that were owned outright
and subsequently pledged to DIP lenders. Of the 463 financed aircraft, 158 were
funded through public debt, including pass-through certificates and EETC
transactions. This group of debt holders negotiated jointly as the public debt holders.
Within 60 days of its bankruptcy filing, United agreed to perform on 51 of the public
debt aircraft, operating the remaining 124 unprotected under Section 1110(c). In
February 2004, the airline and the public debt holders agreed to a restructuring
agreement covering all the aircraft, under which some aircraft were rejected, but
when the ATSB refused an exit loan guaranty, United decided not to perform on this
settlement. When negotiations broke off in November 2004, trustees for three
transactions (JETS 1995-A, 1993A PTC and 1993C PTC) terminated adequate
protection stipulations and demanded the return of 14 aircraft. Initially, the court
interfered with creditors’ access to collateral, but finally allowed creditors to exercise
their Section 1110 rights in May 2005. By this time, United had already rejected six of
the 14 aircraft. Four more were repossessed (767s out of the 1993 deals), and four
were bought by the airline (767s out of the 1995 deal).
Going into the summer of 2005, creditors stepped up the pressure on United, aided
by a court ruling approving repossession, an improving aircraft market and a desire
to reduce credit exposure to United. Better market values for the aircraft lowered
loan-to-value ratios in the transactions and made repossession a credible threat.
In July 2005, creditors demanded return of a further 15 aircraft (eight 747s and seven
767s from eight transactions). One of these 747s was subsequently repossessed by
the creditors. Negotiations have led the public debt group and United to revise
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
termsheets for all the deals (except for the 1997-1 deal, which the airline will buy).
These could be finalized in a Sept. 27, 2005, hearing.
12
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Out of the JETS deals (JETS 1994-A, JETS 1995-A and JETS 1995-B), United
generally retained long-range widebodies that fit its new emphasis on
international flights, while all the narrowbodies were rejected and many
subsequently sold.
In the other EETC transactions, debt holders renegotiated lease rates to keep
planes with United, with some exceptions. Five 777-200ERs out of three deals
(UAL 2000-1, UAL 2000-2 and UAL 2001-1) and an A320 were taken out of the
United fleet and put on operating lease.
13
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
US Airways
Despite a net loss of $62 million, US Airways’ Q2 2005 results showed significant
progress made on the cost side as CASM decreased 5.3% amid high fuel prices.
US Airways’ fleet planning has been a function of an agreement with GE, its largest
creditor. On the fleet side, GE agreed to the early return of 10 leased A319s and 15
737s, while leasing 31 RJs to the airline. Not all of these aircraft have been returned
yet. Otherwise, US Airways’ fleet has remained intact.
14
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
Air Canada
ACE Aviation June quarter net income totaled $138 million as revenue gained 11%,
while per seat cost remained flat in a challenging environment.
In Q2, Air Canada ordered 32 777 and 787 aircraft, then canceled the order after
failing to reach a cost-cutting agreement with its pilots’ union.
15
North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
America West
America West generated $13.9 million in net income on 2.7% higher capacity and a four-point
increase in load factor, but overall cost was 20% higher. Three new additions were made to the fleet
during Q2, all five-year operating leases on Airbus narrowbodies. The airline also monetized an
A320 and two engines through sale-leaseback transactions. The last 737-200 was phased out of
operation in Q1.
Independence Air
Independence Air reported a $98.5 million loss for Q2 2005 and ended with $19.4 million in cash.
With regard to fleet planning, Independence agreed to the early termination on 24 leased CRJs from
GE with the potential for the withdrawal of an additional eight CRJs by GE if certain financial
milestones are not met. Further deliveries of A319s have been pushed back with new dates yet to
be determined.
Southwest Airlines
Southwest continues to be profitable, reporting net income of $159 million in Q2 2005. Fleet
expansion continues at an aggressive pace, with the 25 737-700 deliveries through August 2005 to be
followed by nine more during the rest of the year. In 2006, an additional 34 737s are scheduled for
delivery and 25 in 2007. The only retirements in 2005 were the last five 737-200s that were phased out
of service earlier in the year.
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North American Fleet Handbook
September 7, 2005 STRUCTURED PRODUCTS RESEARCH
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX
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Structured Products Research (704) 374-4784
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