ARTICLE IN PRESS

Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467

www.elsevier.com/locate/ress

Multiaxial fatigue reliability analysis of railroad wheels

Yongming Liu, Liming Liu, Brant Stratman, Sankaran Mahadevan
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Box 6077-B, 306 Jacobs Hall, Nashville TN 37235, USA
Accepted 11 December 2006
Available online 24 January 2007

Abstract

A general methodology for fatigue reliability degradation of railroad wheels is proposed in this paper. Both fatigue crack initiation and
crack propagation life are included in the proposed methodology using previously developed multiaxial fatigue models by the same
authors. A response surface method in conjunction with design of experiments is used to develop a closed form approximation of the
fatigue damage accumulation with respect to the input random variables. The total fatigue life of railroad wheels under stochastic
loading is simulated, accounting for the spatial and temporal randomness of the fatigue damage. The field observations of railroad wheel
fatigue failures are compared with the numerical predictions using the proposed methodology.
r 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords: Stochastic; Rolling contact fatigue; Multiaxial fatigue; Reliability

1. Introduction subsurface-initiated failure can destroy the wheel’s integrity

Damage accumulation due to fatigue, plastic deforma-
tion and wear significantly reduces the service life of
railroad wheels. In recent years, higher train speeds and
increased axle loads have led to larger wheel/rail contact
forces. Also, efforts have been made to optimize wheel and
rail design. This evolution tends to change the major
wheel rim damage from wear to fatigue [1]. Unlike the
slow deterioration process of wear, fatigue causes abrupt
fractures in wheels or tread surface material loss. These
failures may cause damage to rails, damage to train
suspensions and, in some cases, serious derailment of
the train.
Railroad wheels may fail in different ways corresponding
to different failure mechanisms [2–4]. Ekberg and Marais
[5] divide the wheel fatigue failure modes into three
different failure types corresponding to different initiation
locations: surface initiated, subsurface initiated and deep
surface initiated fatigue failures. Surface-initiated failures
usually break off a piece of the wheel tread, while
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 615 322 3040; fax: +1 615 322 3365.
E-mail address: Sankaran.Mahadevan@Vanderbilt.edu
(S. Mahadevan).
and thus is more dangerous. Subsurface-initiated failure,
also known as shattered rim, is the type of failure studied in
this paper. Studies on surface-initiated fatigue have been
developed elsewhere [6–8].
Shattered rim failures are the results of large fatigue
cracks that propagate roughly parallel to the wheel tread
surface [9,10]. They can grow up to a length of several
hundred millimeters. Ekberg et al. [11] reported that a
shattered rim can initiate from both inclusions and non-
inclusion locations, which indicate that both crack initia-
tion life and propagation life need to be included to predict
the failure life of railroad wheels.
Historically, the methods for the fatigue life prediction
of mechanical/structural components can be divided into
several groups. Among others, the fatigue crack initiation
prediction models based on the S–N or e–N curve
approach, and the fatigue crack propagation prediction
models based on fracture mechanics are predominantly
used. The fatigue crack initiation models are appropriate
for the analysis of components with non-crack-like
geometries or without large initial defects. The fatigue
crack propagation models are appropriate for the analysis
of components with crack-like geometries or with large
initial defects. If neither stage (initiation or propagation)

0951-8320/$ - see front matter r 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2006.12.021
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467
dominates during the entire life of the mechanical
components, a total life methodology is required to
accurately predict the component fatigue reliability.
There are two major difficulties in deterministic railroad
wheel fatigue modeling. One is that the wheels are usually
under rolling contact condition, which leads to a non-
proportional multiaxial stress state within the wheels.
Proper multiaxial fatigue models are required to handle
this type of fatigue life prediction, which should be
applicable to non-proportional loading conditions. The
other difficulty is how to accurately describe the stress state
in contact analysis. Analytical solutions and simplified 2D
finite element models are not appropriate for the rolling
contact analysis of mechanical components with complex
geometries, such as railroad wheels [12].
A large amount of scatter has been observed in the
fatigue life distribution of railroad wheels, ranging from
several months to several decades. A probabilistic fatigue
analysis is more appropriate in order to consider the large
observed randomness, including various uncertainties in
material properties, structural geometries and applied
loadings. Due to the complex mechanism involved in the
rolling contact fatigue analysis and large number of
random variables affecting the final reliability, a direct
analytical reliability calculation is impractical.
This paper proposes a general methodology for rolling
contact fatigue life prediction under a stochastic loading
process. The fatigue damage within railroad wheels is
treated as a spatial-temporal random field in this study.
A response surface method (RSM) in conjunction with
design of experiments is used to develop a closed form
approximation of the fatigue damage accumulation with
respect to the input random variables. Then Monte Carlo
simulation with the response surface is used for probabil-
istic fatigue life prediction. The numerical predictions are
compared with field observations of wheel failure data. The
proposed methodology is also very valuable for fatigue
damage tolerance design, and maintenance scheduling of
mechanical and structural components.
a Pilot Node
Z b
X
Y
Contact Element
Fig. 1. Finite element modeling of wheel/rail contact. (a) Full model; (b) sub model.
457
2. Rolling contact fatigue modeling of railroad wheels
The total fatigue life of railroad wheels in the proposed
methodology is separated into two parts. One is crack
initiation life and the other is crack propagation life.
Mathematically, it can be expressed as
N total ¼ N initiation þ N propogation , (1)
where N total , N initiation and N propogation are the total fatigue
life, the fatigue crack initiation life and the fatigue crack
propagation life, respectively. The details about the
calculation of each part of the fatigue life and the transition
between the fatigue initiation life and the fatigue propaga-
tion life are described below.
2.1. Fatigue crack initiation life model
Liu et al. [12] have developed a fatigue crack initiation
life prediction model for railroad wheels. It combines a
critical plane-based multiaxial fatigue theory [13] with a 3D
finite element model. A detailed derivation and explanation
of the model can be found in the referred paper. Only a
brief illustration is shown here.
First, use the available profiles to build the geometry
model of one wheel and a piece of rail. This model is called
the full model. At the wheel center, a pilot node is
connected to the wheel using rigid link elements. All the
external loading and boundary conditions of the wheel are
applied on the pilot point. On the possible contact areas of
the railhead and the wheel tread, area contact elements are
used corresponding to the geometry mesh of the wheel. The
full model analysis is first performed and the geometry
model of the contact region is cut out to be a sub-model
with a very fine mesh near the contact surface. The results
of the full model are interpolated on the cut boundaries of
the sub-model and applied as boundary conditions to the
sub-model. The finite element model is shown in Fig. 1.
The stress response from the finely meshed sub-model is
used for fatigue life prediction. As an illustration, the stress
Wheel
Cutting Edge
Rail
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458 Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467
200
0 0
Time step
Stress (MPa)
-200
-400
Y stress
-600 YZ shear stress
-800
Fig. 2. Stress history at two locations in the wheel. (a) Point 3 mm below tread surface; (b) point 10 mm below tread surface.
histories of two points (one is 3 mm below the tread
surface, the other is 10 mm below the tread surface) during
half a revolution of the wheel rotation are plotted in Fig. 2
[12]. Fig. 2 shows that the stress history in the wheel under
rolling contact condition is not proportional, which
indicates that the maximum normal stress and maximum
shear stress do not occur simultaneously.
After obtaining the stress history of the wheel, a
previously developed multiaxial fatigue model [13] is used
to calculate the fatigue initiation life and initial crack plane
orientation. An equivalent stress amplitude (Seq) for
fatigue crack initiation life prediction is calculated as [13]
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
t 2 t 2  H 2
1 2 3 s
S eq ¼ ðs1 Þ2 þ þ þA
B s s s
where S eq is the equivalent stress under multiaxial loading.
s1 , t2 , and t3 are the normal and shear stress amplitude
applied on the critical plane. The subscripts 1, 2, 3 indicate
the directions of the stress amplitude. The superscript H in
sH indicates the hydrostatic stress amplitude. s is the ratio
of shear and normal stress amplitudes under a specific
fatigue crack initiation life (Ninitiation). A and B are material
parameters and can be found in our previously developed
multiaxial fatigue model [12]. The equivalent stress ampli-
tude and experimental S–N curve data is used to calculate
the life of wheels under a specific applied vertical loading.
Because the critical location is not available, all of the
possible nodes on the radial section of the wheel are
explored. The fatigue crack orientation and location can be
calculated and have been validated with field observations.
It has been found [12] that fatigue cracks usually initiate at
some depth below the wheel tread surface and have a
shallow angle with the wheel tread surface. The informa-
tion about the crack location and orientation will be used
for fatigue crack propagation analysis in Section 2.3.
2.2. Transition between fatigue crack initiation life and
propagation life
The concept of fatigue limit is traditionally used in the
fatigue resistance design, which defines a loading criterion
under which no macroscopic crack will form. The concept
200
Stress (MPa)
200- Time step
-400
Y stress
-600
YZ shear stress
-800
of fatigue crack threshold is often used within the damage-
tolerant design approach, which defines a loading criterion
under which the cracks will not grow significantly [14].
A link between the fatigue limit and the fatigue crack
threshold was proposed by Kitagawa and Takahashi [15].
According to the well-known El Haddad model [16], the
fatigue limit can be expressed using the fatigue threshold
and a fictional crack length a. The crack length a represents
the intersection of the smooth specimen fatigue limit and
the linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) fatigue
threshold, i.e.
K th
f 1 ¼ pffiffiffiffiffiffi , (3)
pa
, (2) where f 1 is the fatigue limit of the material and K th is the
fatigue crack threshold for Mode I loading. Eq. (3) is
originally proposed by El Haddad et al. [16] for Mode I
loading. Liu and Mahadevan [17] showed that this idea can
be also used under mixed-mode loadings using their
developed mixed-mode fatigue crack propagation model.
The fictional crack length a can be used to bridge the
gap between the fatigue crack initiation and propagation.
Eq. (3) can be rewritten as
 
1 K th 2
a¼ . (4)
p f 1
In the proposed method, if the fatigue damage accumula-
tion according to the fatigue crack initiation analysis
reaches a critical value (usually unity), an initial crack is
assumed to be formed with the size determined by Eq. (4).
Then the fatigue crack propagation analysis based on
fracture mechanics can be performed as shown in the next
section.
2.3. Fatigue crack propagation life model
Liu [18] has developed a method for subsurface fatigue
crack propagation of railroad wheels. Only a brief
illustration is shown here and the detailed explanation
can be found in the referred publication. A finite element
model similar to the one for the fatigue crack initiation
analysis (Section 2.1) is developed. The difference is that an
embedded elliptical crack is built into the model. The crack
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Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467 459

Pilot Node Wheel

Y
Cutting Edge

Z X
d
2
3 b 1
Z a
Contact Element
4
Rail a:b=1:1.5
X

Fig. 3. Finite element modeling of wheel/rail contact with subsurface crack. (a) Full model; (b) sub model; (c) crack; (d) crack shape.

a b
2 2
Mode II
Mode II
Mode III
SIF MPa(m)1/2

1.5 1.5

SIF MPa(m)1/2
Mode III

1 1

0.5 0.5

0 0
Time step Time step

Fig. 4. Stress intensity factor history under rolling contact. (a) Crack tip at the major axis; (b) crack tip at the minor axis.

location and orientation are determined from the previous
numerical prediction of the initial fatigue crack profiles
(Section 2.1). The major axis is along the track direction
and the minor axis is perpendicular to the track direction.
The finite element models of the full model, sub-model and
crack are shown in Fig. 3.
The stress analysis is performed using the similar
procedure as that of the fatigue crack initiation model.
The calculated stress intensity factors (SIF) from finely
meshed submodel are used for the fatigue crack propaga-
tion analysis. Liu [18] has shown that Mode I SIF is not
significant for rolling contact fatigue problems as the wheel
is under an overall compressive stress state. Both Modes II
and III SIF are significant and need to be considered for
the fatigue crack propagation analysis. The Modes II and
III SIF histories of two crack tips at the major axis and
the minor axis (points 1 and 2 in Fig. 3(d)) during
half a revolution of the wheel rotation are plotted in Fig. 4.
Fig. 4 shows that the SIFs in the wheel under the rolling
contact condition are not proportional, which indicates
that the maximum Modes II and III SIF do not occur
simultaneously.
After obtaining the SIF histories of the crack in the
wheel, a previously developed mixed-mode fatigue crack
propagation model [17] is used to calculate the fatigue
crack propagation life and the crack propagation profile.
An equivalent SIF (Keq) for fatigue crack propagation life
prediction is calculated as
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
 2  2  H 2
1 2 k2 k3 k
K mixed;eq ¼ ðk1 Þ þ þ þA ; (5)
B s s s
where K mixed;eq is the equivalent SIF under mixed-mode
loading. k1, k2, k3 and kH are the loading parameters with
the same unit as the SIF. The subscripts 1, 2, 3 indicate the
directions of the stress amplitude. The superscript H
indicates the hydrostatic stress related term. s is the ratio
of Modes II and I SIF at a specific crack growth rate
(da/dN). A and B are material parameters and can be
found in our previously developed models [12,17]. A
numerical contour plot of the fatigue crack propagation
from the numerical simulation is plotted in Fig. 5 along
with a couple of field observations. The increment of the
number of cycles between each contour is 1.5  106. It is
seen that the numerical prediction of the crack shape agrees
very well with the field observations. The early stage crack
propagation is in a circular configuration, which shows
almost equal crack propagation rates in both the minor
and the major axis directions. Then the crack propagates in
an elliptical manner, which is mainly along the major axis
direction (track direction). Both numerical prediction and
field observations show a compressed contour in the minor
axis direction and an extruded contour in the major axis
direction.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
460 Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467
Fig. 5. Crack shape comparison between numerical prediction and field observations. (a) Field observations of crack shape; (b) numerical prediction of
crack shape.
3. Stochastic fatigue damage modeling
The above discussions are for deterministic fatigue
damage modeling. Due to the large uncertainties involved
in fatigue analysis and field observations, a stochastic
fatigue life prediction approach is proposed here, which
includes various uncertainties in material properties and
applied loadings.
First consider the stress response at a specific location
and time instant. The equivalent stress amplitude S eq is
calculated using the method described in Section 2.1. At
any fixed location, Seq is a random variable with
probability density function (PDF) of f Seq ðSeq Þ. The fatigue
damage caused by the stress amplitude is usually expressed
as a fraction of the total number of cycles to failure:
1 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
D¼ , (6)
N
where N is the fatigue life estimation from the S–N curve
under constant stress amplitude Seq . N represents the
material resistance to fatigue loading. It is also a random
variable at a specific stress amplitude. The conditional
PDF of N can be found from experimental data and is
expressed as f N jSeq ðNÞ. The single cycle damage which
considers both the randomness in material resistance and
applied stress amplitude is a random variable whose joint
PDF can be expressed as
 
1 1
f D ðDÞ ¼ f DjSeq ðDÞf Seq ðS eq Þ ¼ 2 f N jSeq f ðS eq Þ. (7)
D D Seq
For the fatigue damage accumulation process, a damage
accumulation rule is required. In the current study, a linear
damage accumulation rule, known as the Miner’s rule, is
used for its simplicity. Eq. (8) is the general expression for
the Miner’s rule.
X
K XK
ni
Dinitiation ¼ Di ¼ , (8)
i¼1 i¼1
N i
where K is the number of loading blocks, ni is the ith
applied loading cycle. For stochastic loading during a
certain time period, not only is the stress amplitude Seq a
random variable, but also the number of cycles ni at the
stress amplitude S eq . Nagode and Fajdiga [19] proved that
the conditional PDF (f ni jSeq ðni Þ) of number of cycles ni at
the stress amplitude level Seq can be modeled by a normal
distribution based on the DeMoivre–Laplace principle,
with the mean and standard deviation expressed as
m ¼ 1 þ ðT  1Þð1  F ðSeq ÞÞ,
s ¼ ðT  1Þð1  F ðS eq ÞÞF ðS eq Þ, ð9Þ
where T is the total number of load cycles during each
block, F ðS eq Þ is the cumulative density function (CDF) of
the stress amplitude which can be obtained from cycle
counting techniques such as the rain-flow counting method
[18]. The joint PDF of the total damage at a specific
location can be expressed as
 
1 1
f Dtinitiation ðDtinitiation Þ ¼ 2 f N i jSeq f ðni Þf Seq ðS eq Þ.
D D ni jSeq
(10)
When the fatigue damage equals or exceeds unity, we
assume that the initial fatigue crack is formed. We check
the damage accumulation at different locations. If fatigue
damage exceeds unity at one location, the number of
loading blocks is the fatigue crack initiation life of the
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467
structure. Eq. (11) is a general expression for the structural
fatigue crack initiation criterion
Dstructure ¼ maxðDtotal;xj Þ ¼ Gðxj ; N initiation ; R1 ; . . . ; RP Þ ¼ 1,
where xj is the coordinate at different locations, N initiation is
the number of loading cycles to fatigue crack initiation, R1
through Rp, are random variables which affect the fatigue
damage in the structure. Solving Eq. (11) for N initiation , we
obtain
 
N initiation ¼ f i xj ; R1 ; . . . ; RP . (12)
Eq. (12) shows that the fatigue crack initiation life is a
function of geometric locations and input random vari-
ables. The analytical solution for N initiation using Eq. (12) is
rather complicated and sometimes impractical. We use
Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the probabilistic
fatigue crack initiation life.
Once the fatigue crack is initiated, we use the fatigue
crack propagation model described in Section 2.3 to
calculate the fatigue crack propagation life. The equivalent
stress intensity amplitude K eq is calculated using the
described method. At a specific point at the crack tip, K eq
is a random variable with the PDF of f K eq ðK eq Þ. The crack
growth rate at a specific SIF amplitude is also a random
variable with the conditional PDF of f da jK eq ðda=dNÞ.
dN
Following a similar procedure as the stochastic fatigue
crack initiation life prediction, the single cycle fatigue crack
length increment Da is a random variable and its joint PDF
can be expressed as
 
da
f D ðDaÞ ¼ f da jK eq f ðK eq Þ. (13)
dN dN K eq
During the entire loading history, the crack propagation
length is added to the initial crack length. When the crack
reaches the critical length, the mechanical component is
assumed to fail. The failure criterion is expressed as
X
R ments in Table 1 is performed. The equivalent stress
atotal ¼ ai þ Dam Xac ,
m¼1
where R is the number of loading cycles, Dam is the crack
length increment during each loading cycle. In Eq. (14), ai,
Dam and ac are random variables. ai is calculated using
Eq. (4) and is related to material properties. ac is obtained
using field observations of failed components (failed
railroad wheels in the current study). am is calculated using
Table 1
Design values for the five random variables
Random variables (unit) Lower
Wheel diameter D (in) 28
Hardness Ha (BHN) 235
Applied loading F 0.4
Crack depth d (mm) 5 6
Crack length a (mm) 1 5
461
Eq. (13) and is related to the applied stochastic loading and
material properties. am is an implicit function of crack
propagation life N propagation and other random variables and
can be expressed as
(11)
am ¼ f ðN propogation ; R1 ; . . . ; Rp Þ. (15)
Substitute Eq. (15) into Eq. (14) and solve for N propagation ,
we obtain
N propagation ¼ f p ðai ; ac ; R1 ; . . . ; Rp Þ. (16)
Eq. (16) shows that the fatigue crack propagation life is a
function of several random variables. Again, the analytical
solution for N propagation using Eq. (16) is rather complicated
and sometimes impractical. We use Monte Carlo simula-
tions to calculate the probabilistic fatigue crack propaga-
tion life.
Substituting Eqs. (12) and (16) into Eq. (1), we can
obtain the total fatigue life of the mechanical components.
4. Response surface approximation
Due to the expensive computational effort involved in
the rolling contact finite element modeling, the RSM is
used here to approximate the relationship between the
input variables and the output variables using a few sample
points. Based on the parametric studies of the fatigue crack
initiation and the fatigue crack propagation analysis [18],
several important factors are chosen as the input variables.
The output variables are the equivalent stress amplitude for
the fatigue crack initiation analysis and the equivalent SIF
for the fatigue crack propagation analysis. A full factorial
design is used to design the numerical experiments. The
lower, middle and upper design values for five variables are
listed in Table 1. In Table 1, the applied loading is
normalized with the maximum design loading specified by
the Association of American Railroads [20]. A finite
element analysis corresponding to the design of experi-
(14) amplitude and the equivalent SIF are used to build the
response surface by regression analysis.
Analysis of the numerical results show that the
maximum equivalent stress not only varies its amplitude
but also its location (depth below the tread surface). A two-
step regression analysis is performed to handle this
problem. First, for each numerical experiment, a rational
regression function (Eq. (17)) is used to formulate the stress
Middle Upper Fatigue crack stage
33 38 Crack initiation
320 405 Crack initiation
1.0 1.5 Crack initiation and propagation
8 Crack propagation
15 Crack propagation
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462 Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467

500 700
FEA results (33-320-0.4) 95% bounds of
600 regression results
400 FEA results (38-405-1.0)

Stress (MPa)

Stress (MPa)
Regression results 500 90% bounds of
300 regression results
400 FEA results
200 300
200
100
100
0 0
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
X (mm) X (mm)

Fig. 6. Comparison between FEA results and regression results for equivalent stress. (a) Individual comparison; (b) overall comparison.

variation corresponding to the depth. 20

FEA results
1
S eq ¼ , (17) 15

Keq (MPa(m)1/2)
P1 þ P2 x þ P3 x2 regression

where S eq is the equivalent stress, P1, P2 and P3 are

functions of input random variables (i.e., wheel diameter
D, hardness Ha and applied loading F), x is the depth
below the tread surface (Fig. 6).
The regression results using Eq. (17) for two specific
numerical examples are plotted in Fig. 6(a). The regression
results for all the numerical examples are plotted in
Fig. 6(b). One point to note is that Eq. (17) is a random
function, which represents the stress variation correspond-
ing to spatial domain. The regression result of Eq. (17) is
used for the fatigue crack initiation life prediction.
The above discussion of stress range approximation
(Eq. (17)) is for fatigue crack initiation life prediction.
After a fatigue crack initiates, it continues to propagate to
the final failure. SIF amplitude approximation is required
for fatigue crack propagation life prediction. Liu [18] has
performed a parametric study for the fatigue crack
propagation analysis of railroad wheels and found that
the applied load, the crack length and the crack depth
below the tread surface have significant influences on the
SIF ranges. Based on first principles of fracture mechanics,
a simple formula is proposed [18] to calculate the
equivalent SIF range as
pffiffiffiffiffiffi
K eq ¼ xðF  F c Þ padð2d c  dÞ, (18)
where K eq is the equivalent SIF. F is the applied loading. a
is the half length of the embedded crack along the axis. F c ,
d c and x are regression constants. The prediction using
Eq. (18) and the finite element results for the SIF along the
major axis are plotted in Fig. 7. It is seen that the proposed
formula agrees with the finite element results well. Eq. (18)
is used for fatigue crack propagation life prediction.
The regression functions for the Seq and Keq (Eqs. (17)
and (18)) indicate that they are functions of input random
variables and coordinate variables. Their statistical para-
meters depend on these two types of variables. The
analytical statistical expressions (e.g., PDF functions) of
Seq and Keq are then quite complicated. In this paper, we
10
5
0
0.0E+00 5.0E+05 1.0E+06 1.5E+06 2.0E+06
(F − Fc) πad (2dc −d ) (MPa(m)1/2)
Fig. 7. Comparison between regression results and FEA results for
equivalent SIF.
used Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probabilistic
fatigue life prediction and the analytical expression of Seq
and Keq is not required. The final objective is the life
distribution of railroad wheels considering the randomness
of the input random variables (e.g., applied loading,
structural details and material properties, etc.). Seq and
Keq are only ‘‘intermediate’’ variables during the calcula-
tion and their statistical information is not explicitly
quantified.
5. Monte Carlo simulation and reliability degradation
A Monte Carlo simulation-based methodology is used to
calculate the probabilistic life distribution and reliability
degradation of railroad wheels in this paper. The response
surface developed in Section 4 is used to calculate the
fatigue crack initiation life and the fatigue crack propaga-
tion life. Various uncertainties from material properties,
wheel geometry, applied loading and crack profiles are
included in the proposed calculation.
5.1. Statistics of input random variables
For the Monte Carlo simulation, the probability
distribution functions of the input random variables are
required. The details are shown below.
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Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467 463

500 180
Experimental data 160
90% bounds
140
450 median curve
Stress (MPa)

120

Frequency
100
400
80
60
350 40
20
300 0
4 5 6 7 0.00 0.64 1.28 1.92 2.56 3.20 3.84 4.48
Life (log(N)) Loading factor

Fig. 8. Fatigue S–N curve. Fig. 10. Histogram of loading factor.

160 0.03
140

Probability density
120
Frequency

100 0.02
80
60
40 0.01
20
0
28.0 30.0 33.0 36.0 38.0 0
Wheel diameter (in) 270 320 370
Hardness (BHN)
Fig. 9. Histogram of wheel diameter.
Fig. 11. PDF of hardness distribution.

The median fatigue S–N curve and its 90% confidence
bounds are plotted with the experimental data in Fig. 8.
The fatigue life at a specific stress level is assumed to
follow the lognormal distribution. For wheel diameter,
collected field data shows that it can be described as a
multinomial distribution. The histogram of wheel dia-
meters is plotted in Fig. 9. The current study focuses on the
fatigue degradation behavior of the entire population of
railroad wheels currently in service. Thus we included all
wheels with different diameters. The next step of the
ongoing research is to divide the entire population of
railroad wheels into several groups based on their
similarities (e.g., same diameter, same manufacturing,
similar operation conditions, etc.) using cluster analysis.
Each group will be studied individually to identify the most
critical features affecting the reliability of railroad wheels.
However, that objective is beyond the scope of the current
paper, which mainly presents a general methodology
for the rolling contact fatigue reliability calculation of
railroad wheels.
The applied loading on railroad wheels appears to be a
bimodal distribution (Fig. 10). The reason is that the
service loading can be classified as either empty loaded or
full loaded. In the current study, this distribution is
simplified by a linear combination of lognormal and
Weibull distributions (Eq. (19)).
F bimodal ðRL Þ ¼ 0:44F lognormal ðRL Þ þ 0:56F weibull ðRL Þ, (19)
where RL is the random variable of applied loadings on
railroad wheels. F XXXXX ðRL Þ is the CDF of different
distributions of RL. Eq. (19) uses non-dimensional loading
factor, which is defined as the actual loading divided by
maximum design load.
No experimental data for the material hardness distribu-
tion is available. However, the hardness value for class B
and C railroad wheels is bounded between 277 and 363
[20]. In the current study, we assume the hardness follows a
Beta distribution to represent this bounded distribution.
The PDF of the beta distribution is plotted in Fig. 11.
The fatigue crack propagation curve suggested in
Association of American Railroads [20] is used. The
median and 90% confidence bounds are plotted in
Fig. 12. The crack growth rate at a specific SIF amplitude
is assumed to follow the lognormal distribution. The initial
crack size after the fatigue crack initiation is calculated
using the Kitagawa diagram (Eq. (4)); it depends on the
fatigue limit and the fatigue crack threshold value. In the
current study, the initial crack length is approximated
using a lognormal distribution. The PDF of the initial
crack length is plotted in Fig. 13. The final failure crack
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
464 Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467

1.0E+00
Mean
the fatigue life of railroad wheels with the response surface
1.0E-01 90% confidence bounds in Section 4.
1.0E-02
Ten thousand Monte Carlo samples are used to simulate
da/dN (mm/cycle)

the fatigue failure life of railroad wheels. Field data

1.0E-03
regarding the number of cycles to failure of railroad wheels
1.0E-04 are collected and compared with the Monte Carlo
1.0E-05 simulation results. The empirical CDF and the frequency
1.0E-06 histogram of the numerical fatigue life prediction are
1.0E-07
plotted in Fig. 15 together with the field observations. The
fatigue life in Fig. 15 is censored at 2  109 cycles because it
1.0E-08
11 0 100
is assumed that the wheel would fail due to other failure
mechanisms by the end of this time-period.
 K MPa(m)1/2
In Fig. 15(a), the numerical fatigue life predictions agree
Fig. 12. Fatigue crack growth curve. with the field observations reasonably well and capture the
major trend of the life distribution. However, a large
difference is observed at the early life regime, i.e. near the
14 tail region of the fatigue life distribution. The reason is that
12 the field data shows two ranges of fatigue life distribution.
Probability density

10 This phenomenon can be clearly seen in the frequency

diagram (Fig. 15(b)). It also can be seen that the number of
8
wheels experiencing premature failure is only a small
6
fraction of wheels (around 10%) and does not greatly
4 affect the overall mean fatigue life. However, their effects
2 are significant at the tail region, which affects the reliability
0 evaluation.
0.05 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.15 Berge [21] and Stone and Geoffrey [22] suggest that the
Initial crack length (mm) large stress, perhaps due to wheel/rail impact or material
discontinuity, has important effect on the shattered rim
Fig. 13. PDF of fictional crack length.
failure. Also, the large on-tread brake loading and the
thermal stresses arising from on-tread friction braking
will reduce the fatigue life of railroad wheels [23]. The
9 observed premature fatigue failure (earlier failure modal in
8 Fig. 15(b)) is possibly due to the above mentioned factors
7
or their combinations, such as initial defects, brake
loading, and thermal loading.
6
Frequency

The brake loading and the thermal loading effects are

5 beyond the scope of the current study. Only the effect of
4 initial defects is considered here to predict the premature
3 fatigue failure. Since no information about the initial defect
2 geometry and distribution is available at this stage, the
1
length of the initial defect is assumed to be 3.2 mm (1/8 in)
according to AAR regulations. The location of the initial
0
150 200 250 300 350
defect is assumed to be uniformly distributed between 5
Critical crack length (mm)
and 8 mm below the tread surface. A Monte Carlo
simulation is used again to calculate the fatigue life of
Fig. 14. Histogram of critical crack length. defective railroad wheels, in which 10% of the failed wheels
are assumed to be controlled by the large initial defects.
The numerical prediction and field observations are plotted
length uses field observation data and is approximated in Fig. 16. It is seen that the numerical prediction are closer
using a lognormal distribution. The histogram and lognor- to the field observations if large initial defects are
mal fit are plotted in Fig. 14. The statistical properties of the considered.
input random variables are listed in Table 2. The above discussion assumes a deterministic initial
defect length specified in Association of American Rail-
5.2. Probabilistic life distribution and reliability roads [20]. One remaining question is whether the
premature fatigue failure of railroad wheels can be fully
Using the described statistics of the input random or mostly explained by the existences of the large initial
variables, Monte Carlo simulation can be used to predict defects, if the randomness in initial defect size is also
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467 465

Table 2
Summary of the statistics of input random variables

Random variable Mean Coefficient of variance Distribution type

Fatigue strength 360.8 MPa 0.03 Lognormal

Wheel diameter 35.5 in 0.01 Multinomial
Loading factor 0.91 0.67 Bimodal: Lognormal+Weibull
Material hardness 306 BHN 0.53 Beta
Fatigue crack threshold intensity factor 3.26 MPa(m)1/2 0.42 Lognormal
Fictional crack length 0.1 mm 0.07 Lognormal
Critical crack length 207.6 mm 0.25 Lognormal

a b
1 0.3 Field data
Field data
0.8 Monte Carlo simulation
0.25 Monte Carlo simulation
Probability

Frequency
0.2
0.6
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.2 0.05
0 0
5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10
Fatigue life (log(N)) Fatigue life (log(N))

Fig. 15. Empirical CDF and frequency histogram of the field data and numerical predictions with no initial defects. (a) CDF; (b) frequency histogram.

a b
1 0.3
Field data Field data
0.8 Monte Carlo simulation
0.25 Monte Carlo simulation
Probability

Frequency

0.2
0.6
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.2 0.05
0 0
5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10
Fatigue life (log(N)) Fatigue life (log(N))

Fig. 16. Empirical CDF and frequency histogram of the field data and numerical predictions with 3.2 mm defects. (a) CDF; (b) frequency histogram.

considered. For example, if the initial defect is slightly
larger than the specified AAR value (e.g., 4 vs. 3.2 mm),
can the numerical model predict all or most of the
premature failure? Note that this situation is possible in
practical operations if the inspection limitations and errors
are considered. A trial and error method is used to
calibrate the length of the initial defect to match the field
observations. A 10 mm initial defect assumption can match
the MC simulation results with field observations (Fig. 17)
very well. However, a 10 mm defect is too large at the
current manufacturing and inspection technology level and
is not realistic.
Based on the above discussions, it is clear that large
initial defects contribute to the premature fatigue failure
but cannot fully explain it. Other effects may also
contribute to the premature fatigue failure of railroad
wheels. The current comparison is only a preliminary study
as the initial defect information is assumed. Future work is
required to study the effect of the initial defect and other
factors in detail.
Once the probabilistic fatigue life of railroad wheels is
obtained, time-dependent reliability can be easily calcu-
lated. The reliability degradation of railroad wheels with
and without considering large initial defects are plotted in
Fig. 18. The current focus is on the high reliability regime,
which is of most interest for fatigue resistance design and
maintenance scheduling. It can be seen that the reliability
degradation behaviors are different for different assump-
tions. The simulation results without considering large
initial defects overestimates the reliability of the railroad
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466 Y. Liu et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 93 (2008) 456–467

1 Field data 0.3

Field data
0.8 Monte Carlo simulation 0.25 Monte Carlo simulation

Probability

Frequency
0.2
0.6
0.15
0.4
0.1
0.2 0.05
0 0
5 6 7 8 9 10 5 6 7 8 9 10
Fatigue life (log(N)) Fatigue life (log(N))

Fig. 17. Empirical CDF and frequency histogram of the field data and numerical predictions with 10 mm defects. (a) CDF; (b) frequency histogram.

1
No initial
American Railroads [20] suggests a 3.2 mm initial flaw size
defects as the inspection limit. The numerical predictions in this
0.95 study show that a 3.2 mm initial defect contributes to the
premature fatigue failure and a stricter quality control is
Reliability

0.9 10% of wheels

desired for railroad wheels. It is also observed that the
with 3.2 mm
large initial defect cannot fully explain the premature
initial defects fatigue failure. The current study assumes that 10%
0.85
of wheels contain large initial defects. Future detailed
analysis of initial defect effects need quantitative data on
0.8 fraction of wheels containing large defects (e.g., 5% or
5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
10%) and statistical information about defects (e.g., size,
Time (Log(N))
shape and orientation). Other effects, such as brake loading
Fig. 18. Railroad wheel reliability degradation of numerical predictions and thermal loading, need further detailed study.
with and without considering 3.2 mm initial defects.
Acknowledgments

wheels. The difference increases as the reliability level The research reported in this paper was supported by
increases. funds from Union Pacific Railroad and Meridian Railroad
(Research Agreement No. 18140, Monitor: Rex Beck). The
6. Conclusions support is gratefully acknowledged.

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