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Market Insights 3rd June 2011

Headlines

Prospects of Moody’s placing US under review if no progress in their debt ceiling is made.
News that Euro zone officials have agreed in principal on a new 3 year plan for Greece.
World stocks markets collectively end lower.
AUD retail sales rose 1.1% in April beating the median forecast.
Crude Oil may fall on the back of ISM and ADP data out of the US tonight.

AUD/USD
Resistance
1.0750/60
Support
1.0600
Market Sentiment

Bullish

AUD recovered its losses from yesterday placing the bulls in control after better than expected retail sales figures for month
of April and a general risk on environment overnight. Price needs to overcome the 1.0710/15 static resistance level to
confirm continuation of uptrend.

XAU/USD
Resistance
1543.00
Support
1530.00
Market Sentiment

Bullish

We saw increased volatility overnight after poor US economic figures and a warning from Moody’s however the yellow metal
remains strong and any weakness remains short lived as investors continue to diversify into Gold with all the uncertainty in
the markets at the moment. Uptrend is still strong and any dips should be looked at as opportunities to get long.
EUR/USD
Resistance
1.4500/10
Support
1.4300
Market Sentiment

Bullish

EUR surged higher during Euro and American sessions helped by both Trichet’s comments on Greece and Moody’s possible US
downgrade. Next targets for the bulls are 1.4520 and then onwards to 1.4570. Those who missed to move last night will be
looking to buy back in around 1.4350/70 level.

GBP/USD
Resistance
1.6420
Support
1.6300
Market Sentiment

Bullish

The critical 1.6300 figure area highlighted in yesterday’s report held very firm overnight. While expected to consolidate during
Asian session between 1.6340/80 those who believe this market to be in an uptrend will be hoping for a bullish break higher
later tonight.

USD/JPY
Resistance
81.30
Support
80.60/70
Market Sentiment

Range waiting for breakout


either side

USD/JPY continued to trade in a narrow 50 point range overnight between 80.60 and 81.10 as traders patiently wait for a clear
break of either side before entering into fresh positions. The pair is showing increasing bearish momentum in the 4 hourly
charts which should keep the upside limited but traders will favor playing the range for now.
AUD/JPY
Resistance
86.90 & 87.40
Support
85.70
Market Sentiment

Range waiting for breakout


either side

From yesterday’s sharp reversal AUD/JPY is expected to remain under pressure over the upcoming sessions with traders
looking to sell rallies into 86.40/70 area looking for a retest of 85.50.

OIL
Resistance
101.10 & 103.20
Support
98.40
Market Sentiment

Bullish

A Govt report out of the US pushed crude lower. Traders bought the dip, and prices returned back to the range of $US95 and
$US105 that has held oil since Mid-may. OIL edged up today, rebounding from earlier lows and holding close to the key level of
$US100 a barrel as traders await more signals on the strength of the US economy and a possible break of 101/103.20.

Economic Calendar & Pivot Points


F/Cast Last F/Cast Last
» EUR: Final Services PMI 55.4 55.4 » USD: Avg Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.1%
» GBP: Services PMI 54.4 54.3 » USD: ISM Non Manuf. PMI 53.7 52.8
» USD: Non-Farm payroll 194K 244K » USD : FOMC Tarullo Speaks
» USD: Unemployment Rate 9.0% 9.0% »

Pivot Points AUD/USD XAU/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/JPY CRUDE OIL
Open 1.0683 1534.19 1.4482 1.6373 80.88 86.41 100.88
R3 1.0821 1571.01 1.4746 1.6537 82.04 87.65 104.15
R2 1.0755 1557.73 1.4629 1.6477 81.68 87.13 102.54
R1 1.0719 1545.94 1.4558 1.6425 81.28 86.77 101.69
PP 1.0653 1532.66 1.4441 1.6365 80.92 86.25 100.07
S1 1.0617 1520.87 1.4370 1.6313 80.52 85.89 99.23
S2 1.0551 1507.59 1.4253 1.6253 80.16 85.37 97.61
S3 1.0515 1495.80 1.4182 1.6201 79.76 85.01 96.77

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