Exponential smoothing .1 Exponential smoothing .

3
Year Fossil Fuel Production 1.76269481844019 1.96767146582388
1949 28.748176 Moving average basis for MAPE #N/A #N/A
1950 32.562667 28.748176 28.748176
1951 35.792151 2.494899022205 32.1812179 31.4183197
1952 34.976732 32.36766466667 7% 35.43105769 34.48000161
1953 35.349336 34.44385 3% 35.022164569 34.827712883
1954 33.76433 35.37273966667 5% 35.3166188569 35.1928490649
1955 37.36368 34.69679933333 7% 33.91955888569 34.19288571947
1956 39.771452 35.49244866667 11% 37.019267888569 36.412441715841
1957 40.133484 36.96648733333 8% 39.4962335888569 38.7637489147523
1958 37.216322 39.08953866667 5% 40.0697589588857 39.7225634744257
1959 39.045216 39.04041933333 0% 37.5016656958886 37.9681944423277
1960 39.869117 38.79834066667 3% 38.8908609695889 38.7221095326983
1961 40.307136 38.71021833333 4% 39.7712913969589 39.5250147598095
1962 41.731885 39.74048966667 5% 40.2535515396959 40.0724996279429
1963 44.037181 40.636046 8% 41.5840516539696 41.2340693883828
1964 45.788951 42.02540066667 8% 43.791868065397 43.1962475165149
1965 47.234902 43.85267233333 7% 45.5892427065397 45.0111399549545
1966 50.035367 45.68701133333 9% 47.070336070654 46.5677733864863
1967 52.597132 47.68640666667 9% 49.7388639070654 48.9950889159459
1968 54.306187 49.95580033333 8% 52.3113051907065 51.5165190747838
1969 56.285569 52.31289533333 7% 54.1066988190707 53.4692866224351
1970 59.186071 54.396296 8% 56.0676819819071 55.4406842867305
1971 58.04156 56.592609 2% 58.8742320981907 58.0624549860192
1972 58.937904 57.83773333333 2% 58.1248272098191 58.0478284958057
1973 58.241491 58.721845 1% 58.8565963209819 58.6708813487417
1974 56.330758 58.406985 4% 58.3030015320982 58.3703081046225
1975 54.733273 57.83671766667 6% 56.5279823532098 56.9426230313868
1976 54.722896 56.435174 3% 54.912743935321 55.396078009416
1977 55.100782 55.262309 0% 54.7418807935321 54.9248506028248
1978 55.074118 54.852317 0% 55.0648918793532 55.0480025808474
1979 58.005609 54.965932 5% 55.0731953879353 55.0662833742542
1980 59.007873 56.06016966667 5% 57.7123676387935 57.1238113122763
1981 58.529329 57.36253333333 2% 58.8783224638794 58.4426544936829
1982 57.457822 58.51427033333 2% 58.5642283463879 58.5033266481049
1983 54.415961 58.33167466667 7% 57.5684626346388 57.7714733944315
1984 58.849156 56.80103733333 3% 54.7312111634639 55.4226147183294
1985 57.538724 56.90764633333 1% 58.4373615163464 57.8211936154988
1986 56.575231 56.93461366667 1% 57.6285877516346 57.6234648846497
1987 57.166745 57.65437033333 1% 56.6805666751635 56.8897011653949
1988 57.874997 57.09356666667 1% 57.1181271675164 57.0836318496185
1989 57.482679 57.20565766667 0% 57.7993100167516 57.6375874548855
1990 58.559602 57.50814033333 2% 57.5143421016752 57.5291515364657
1991 57.871727 57.972426 0% 58.4550760101675 58.2504668609397
1992 57.655057 57.971336 1% 57.9300619010168 57.9853489582819
1993 55.822082 58.02879533333 4% 57.6825574901017 57.7541445874846
1994 58.043638 57.11628866667 2% 56.0081295490102 56.4017007762454
1995 57.540135 57.17359233333 1% 57.840087154901 57.5510568328736
1996 58.387225 57.135285 2% 57.5701302154901 57.5434115498621
1997 58.856691 57.99033266667 1% 58.305515521549 58.1340809649586
1998 59.314083 58.26135033333 2% 58.8015734521549 58.6399079894876
1999 57.614481 58.85266633333 2% 59.2628320452155 59.1118304968463
2000 57.366024 58.595085 2% 57.7793161045216 58.0636858490539
2001 58.541348 58.098196 1% 57.4073532104522 57.5753225547162
2002 56.833673 57.84061766667 2% 58.4279485210452 58.2515403664148
2003 56.032784 57.58034833333 3% 56.9931005521045 57.2590332099245
2004 55.942348 57.135935 2% 56.1288156552105 56.4006587629773
2005 55.044002 56.26960166667 2% 55.960994765521 56.0798412288932
2006 55.937854 55.67304466667 0% 55.1357012765521 55.354753768668
2007 56.435649 55.64140133333 1% 55.8576387276552 55.7629239306004
2008 57.587014 55.805835 3% 56.3778479727655 56.2338314791801
2009 56.670274 56.65350566667 0% 57.4660973972766 57.181059243754
2010 58.206642 56.89764566667 2% 56.7498563397277 56.8235095731262
2011 60.549593 57.48797666667 5% 58.0609634339728 57.7917022719379
2012 62.302799 58.475503 6% 60.3007300433973 59.7222257815814
2013 64.201461 60.35301133333 6% 62.1025921043397 61.5286270344744
2014 69.652611 62.35128433333 10% 63.991574110434 63.3996108103423
2015 70.220845 65.38562366667 7% 69.0865073110434 67.7767109431027
2016 68.024972 #DIV/0!
3.44812%
Exponential smoothing .5 Exponential smoothing .7 Exponential smoothing .9
2.36946771781803 3.20809793317747 6.50109621154096
#N/A #N/A #N/A
28.748176 28.748176 28.748176
30.6554215 29.8925233 29.1296251
33.22378625 31.66241161 29.79587769
34.100259125 32.656707727 30.313963121
34.7247975625 33.4644962089 30.8175004089
34.24456378125 33.55444634623 31.11218336801
35.804121890625 34.697216442361 31.737333031209
37.7877869453125 36.2194871096527 32.5407449280881
38.9606354726562 37.3936861767569 33.3000188352793
38.0884787363281 37.3404769237298 33.6916491517514
38.5668473681641 37.8518986466109 34.2270058365762
39.217982184082 38.4570641526276 34.7912169529186
39.762559092041 39.0120857068393 35.3428088576267
40.7472220460205 39.8280254947875 35.9817164718641
42.3922015230103 41.0907721463513 36.7872629246777
44.0905762615051 42.5002258024459 37.6874317322099
45.6627391307526 43.9206286617121 38.6421787589889
47.8490530653763 45.7550501631985 39.78149758309
50.2230925326881 47.8076747142389 41.063061024781
52.2646397663441 49.7572283999673 42.3873736223029
54.275104383172 51.7157305799771 43.7771931600726
56.730587691586 53.9568327059839 45.3180809440654
57.386073845793 55.1822508941888 46.5904288496588
58.1619889228965 56.3089468259321 47.825176364693
58.2017399614483 56.8887100781525 48.8668078282237
57.2662489807241 56.7213244547067 49.6132028454013
55.9997609903621 56.1249090182947 50.1252098608612
55.361328495181 55.7043051128063 50.584978474775
55.2310552475905 55.5232481789644 51.0365588272975
55.1525866237953 55.3885091252751 51.4403147445678
56.5790978118976 56.1736390876925 52.096844170111
57.7934854059488 57.0239092613848 52.7879470530999
58.1614072029744 57.4755351829693 53.3620852477899
57.8096146014872 57.4702212280785 53.7716589230109
56.1127878007436 56.553943159655 53.8360891307098
57.4809719003718 57.2425070117585 54.3373958176389
57.5098479501859 57.3313721082309 54.657528635875
 57.042539475093 57.1045297757617 54.8492988722875
57.1046422375465 57.1231943430332 55.0810434850587
57.4898196187732 57.3487351401232 55.3604388365529
57.4862493093866 57.3889182980862 55.5726628528976
58.0229256546933 57.7401234086604 55.8713567676078
57.9473263273467 57.7796044860623 56.071393790847
57.8011916636733 57.7422402402436 56.2297601117623
56.8116368318367 57.1661927681705 56.1889923005861
57.4276374159183 57.4294263377194 56.3744568705275
57.4838862079592 57.4626389364035 56.4910246834747
57.9355556039796 57.7400147554825 56.6806447151273
58.3961233019898 58.0750176288377 56.8982493436145
58.8551031509949 58.4467372401864 57.1398327092531
58.2347920754974 58.1970603681305 57.1872975383278
57.8004080377487 57.9477494576913 57.205170184495
58.1708780188744 58.1258290203839 57.3387879660455
57.5022755094372 57.7381822142687 57.288276469441
56.7675297547186 57.2265627499881 57.1627272224969
56.3549388773593 56.8412983249917 57.0406893002472
55.6994704386797 56.3021094274942 56.8410205702225
55.8186622193398 56.1928327992459 56.7507039132002
56.1271556096699 56.2656776594721 56.7191984218802
56.857084804835 56.6620785616305 56.8059799796922
56.7636794024175 56.6645371931414 56.792409381723
57.4851607012087 57.1271686351989 56.9338326435507
59.0173768506044 58.1538959446393 57.2954086791956
60.6600879253022 59.3985668612475 57.7961477112761
62.4307744626511 60.8394351028732 58.4366790401485
66.0416927313256 63.4833878720113 59.5582722361336
 Trend
Moving average basis for MAPE 3 period rolling r 1 period rolling a
2.494899022205 1.778326445735 1.708006908491
Year Fossil Fuel Production
1949 28.748176
1950 32.562667 28.748176
1951 35.792151 32.562667
1952 34.976732 32.36766466667 7% 39.41163966667 35.792151
1953 35.349336 34.44385 3% 36.857915 34.976732
1954 33.76433 35.37273966667 5% 34.92992466667 35.349336
1955 37.36368 34.69679933333 7% 33.48439733333 33.76433
1956 39.771452 35.49244866667 11% 37.50679266667 37.36368
1957 40.133484 36.96648733333 8% 42.97360933333 39.771452
1958 37.216322 39.08953866667 5% 41.85934266667 40.133484
1959 39.045216 39.04041933333 0% 36.48528933333 37.216322
1960 39.869117 38.79834066667 3% 37.71007266667 39.045216
1961 40.307136 38.71021833333 4% 41.36301333333 39.869117
1962 41.731885 39.74048966667 5% 41.00240966667 40.307136
1963 44.037181 40.636046 8% 42.498814 41.731885
1964 45.788951 42.02540066667 8% 45.75544566667 44.037181
1965 47.234902 43.85267233333 7% 47.90973833333 45.788951
1966 50.035367 45.68701133333 9% 48.88473233333 47.234902
1967 52.597132 47.68640666667 9% 51.93282266667 50.035367
1968 54.306187 49.95580033333 8% 55.31803033333 52.597132
1969 56.285569 52.31289533333 7% 56.58371533333 54.306187
1970 59.186071 54.396296 8% 58.084733 56.285569
1971 58.04156 56.592609 2% 61.472493 59.186071
1972 58.937904 57.83773333333 2% 59.59372433333 58.04156
1973 58.241491 58.721845 1% 58.473678 58.937904
1974 56.330758 58.406985 4% 58.606916 58.241491
1975 54.733273 57.83671766667 6% 55.22957166667 56.330758
1976 54.722896 56.435174 3% 52.926956 54.733273
1977 55.100782 55.262309 0% 53.654447 54.722896
1978 55.074118 54.852317 0% 55.219826 55.100782
1979 58.005609 54.965932 5% 55.317154 55.074118
1980 59.007873 56.06016966667 5% 58.96499666667 58.005609
1981 58.529329 57.36253333333 2% 61.29628833333 59.007873
1982 57.457822 58.51427033333 2% 59.03799033333 58.529329
1983 54.415961 58.33167466667 7% 56.78162366667 57.457822
1984 58.849156 56.80103733333 3% 52.68766933333 54.415961
1985 57.538724 56.90764633333 1% 58.29898033333 58.849156
1986 56.575231 56.93461366667 1% 60.05737666667 57.538724
1987 57.166745 57.65437033333 1% 55.38044533333 56.575231
1988 57.874997 57.09356666667 1% 56.72158766667 57.166745
1989 57.482679 57.20565766667 0% 58.50542366667 57.874997
1990 58.559602 57.50814033333 2% 57.82407433333 57.482679
1991 57.871727 57.972426 0% 58.657031 58.559602
1992 57.655057 57.971336 1% 58.360384 57.871727
1993 55.822082 58.02879533333 4% 57.12425033333 57.655057
1994 58.043638 57.11628866667 2% 55.06664366667 55.822082
1995 57.540135 57.17359233333 1% 57.56217333333 58.043638
1996 58.387225 57.135285 2% 58.853338 57.540135
1997 58.856691 57.99033266667 1% 58.33391966667 58.387225
1998 59.314083 58.26135033333 2% 59.57790633333 58.856691
1999 57.614481 58.85266633333 2% 59.77952433333 59.314083
2000 57.366024 58.595085 2% 57.352875 57.614481
2001 58.541348 58.098196 1% 56.150137 57.366024
2002 56.833673 57.84061766667 2% 58.76748466667 58.541348
2003 56.032784 57.58034833333 3% 57.04799733333 56.833673
2004 55.942348 57.135935 2% 54.627371 56.032784
2005 55.044002 56.26960166667 2% 55.37827666667 55.942348
2006 55.937854 55.67304466667 0% 54.68426266667 55.044002
2007 56.435649 55.64140133333 1% 55.63690733333 55.937854
2008 57.587014 55.805835 3% 57.197482 56.435649
2009 56.670274 56.65350566667 0% 58.30266566667 57.587014
2010 58.206642 56.89764566667 2% 57.13227066667 56.670274
2011 60.549593 57.48797666667 5% 58.10760466667 58.206642
2012 62.302799 58.475503 6% 62.354822 60.549593
2013 64.201461 60.35301133333 6% 64.44916833333 62.302799
2014 69.652611 62.35128433333 10% 66.00315233333 64.201461
2015 70.220845 65.38562366667 7% 72.73543566667 69.652611
2016 68.024972 #DIV/0! 74.04435633333 70.220845
3.44812%
 0.95 0.3 0.5
Exponential smoothing .1 Exponential smoothing .3 Exponential smoothing .5
2.729729002439 2.55585068910028 4.03886060447341 28.0020102525714

28.748176 28.748176 28.748176 28.748176

28.748176 28.748176 28.748176 28.748176
32.37194245 32.467304725 29.8925233 28.748176
35.6211405725 36.9416437463889 31.66241161 28.748176
35.008952428625 35.614533142875 32.656707727 28.748176
35.3323168214312 35.2038591626993 33.4644962089 28.748176
33.8427293410716 33.6971522248016 33.55444634623 28.748176
37.1876324670536 37.35270171124 34.697216442361 28.748176
39.6422610233527 40.7957741188953 36.2194871096527 28.748176
40.1089228511676 40.7005831726114 37.3936861767569 28.748176
37.3609520425584 37.0208544586307 37.3404769237298 28.748176
38.9610028021279 38.5720971562649 37.8518986466109 28.748176
39.8237112901064 40.3519472078132 38.4570641526276 28.748176
40.2829647645053 40.5308368103906 39.0120857068393 28.748176
41.6594389882253 41.9633793294084 39.8280254947875 28.748176
43.9182938994113 44.5703068553593 41.0907721463513 28.748176
45.6954181449706 46.4647024927679 42.5002258024459 28.748176
47.1579278072485 47.759187380194 43.9206286617121 28.748176
49.8914950403624 50.619894902343 45.7550501631985 28.748176
52.4618501520181 53.4590041617837 47.8076747142389 28.748176
54.2139701576009 55.0346241636447 49.7572283999673 28.748176
56.18198905788 56.8507636859599 51.7157305799771 28.748176
59.035866902894 59.8981436342981 53.956832705984 28.748176
58.0912753451447 58.575519892826 55.1822508941888 28.748176
58.8955725672572 58.7690515224191 56.3089468259321 28.748176
58.2741950783629 58.3742006927876 56.8887100781525 28.748176
56.4279298539181 55.9960865068615 56.7213244547068 28.748176
54.8180058426959 54.1594116142321 56.1249090182947 28.748176
54.7276514921348 54.3683314973783 55.7043051128063 28.748176
55.0821254746067 55.1342444915356 55.5232481789644 28.748176
55.0745183737303 55.1552634579101 55.3885091252751 28.748176
57.8590544686865 58.276553378451 56.1736390876926 28.748176
58.9504320734343 59.7515311355893 57.0239092613848 28.748176
58.5503841536717 58.705901162335 57.4755351829694 28.748176
57.5124501076836 57.2506319247834 57.4702212280785 28.748176
54.5707854553842 53.8914719295727 56.553943159655 28.748176
58.6352374727692 58.5944579353675 57.2425070117585 28.748176
57.5935496736385 58.396550113435 57.3313721082309 28.748176
56.6261469336819 56.1939410890051 57.1045297757617 28.748176
57.1397150966841 57.0093492544503 57.1231943430332 28.748176
57.8382329048342 58.0728845238336 57.3487351401232 28.748176
57.5004566952417 57.6024033428583 57.3889182980862 28.748176
58.5066447347621 58.5744259115874 57.7401234086604 28.748176
57.9034728867381 58.0451946289127 57.7796044860623 28.748176
57.6674777943369 57.4822617092234 57.7422402402436 28.748176
55.9143517897168 55.6010258187945 57.1661927681705 28.748176
57.9371736894858 57.8476616742731 57.4294263377194 28.748176
57.5599869344743 57.9844866448247 57.4626389364036 28.748176
58.3458630967237 58.3556692544635 57.7400147554825 28.748176
58.8311496048362 59.0885823127232 58.0750176288377 28.748176
59.2899363302418 59.4611812211917 58.4467372401864 28.748176
57.6982537665121 57.555203255504 58.1970603681305 28.748176
57.3826354883256 56.9662654961085 57.9477494576913 28.748176
58.4834123744163 58.5974150136943 58.1258290203839 28.748176
56.9161599687208 56.9326101006847 57.7381822142688 28.748176
56.076952798436 55.5790359328119 57.2265627499881 28.748176
55.9490782399218 55.7565676355295 56.8412983249917 28.748176
55.0892558119961 54.9391734928876 56.3021094274942 28.748176
55.8954240905998 55.823395141311 56.1928327992459 28.748176
56.40863775453 56.6805895848433 56.2656776594721 28.748176
57.5280951877265 57.8059249514644 56.6620785616305 28.748176
56.7131650593863 56.8385699086843 56.6645371931414 28.748176
58.1319681529693 58.148738273212 57.1271686351989 28.748176
60.4287117576485 61.1110422525494 58.1538959446393 28.748176
62.2090946378824 62.9870206570718 59.3985668612475 28.748176
64.1018426818941 64.7688186717426 60.8394351028732 28.748176
69.3750725840947 70.5877064169207 63.4833878720113 28.748176
70.1785563792047 71.4812525708462 65.5046250104079 28.748176
 0.7 0.9
Exponential smoothing .7 Exponential smoothing .9
2.95783782393632 2.76212545645328

28.748176 28.748176
28.748176 28.748176
31.4183197 32.1812179
34.48000161 35.43105769
34.827712883 35.022164569
35.1928490649 35.3166188569
34.19288571947 33.91955888569
36.412441715841 37.019267888569
38.7637489147523 39.4962335888569
39.7225634744257 40.0697589588857
37.9681944423277 37.5016656958886
38.7221095326983 38.8908609695889
39.5250147598095 39.7712913969589
40.0724996279429 40.2535515396959
41.2340693883828 41.5840516539696
43.1962475165149 43.791868065397
45.0111399549545 45.5892427065397
46.5677733864863 47.070336070654
48.9950889159459 49.7388639070654
51.5165190747838 52.3113051907065
53.4692866224351 54.1066988190707
55.4406842867305 56.0676819819071
58.0624549860192 58.8742320981907
58.0478284958057 58.1248272098191
58.6708813487417 58.8565963209819
58.3703081046225 58.3030015320982
56.9426230313868 56.5279823532098
55.396078009416 54.912743935321
54.9248506028248 54.7418807935321
55.0480025808474 55.0648918793532
55.0662833742542 55.0731953879353
57.1238113122763 57.7123676387935
58.4426544936829 58.8783224638794
58.5033266481049 58.5642283463879
57.7714733944315 57.5684626346388
55.4226147183294 54.7312111634639
57.8211936154988 58.4373615163464
57.6234648846497 57.6285877516346
56.8897011653949 56.6805666751635
57.0836318496185 57.1181271675164
57.6375874548855 57.7993100167516
57.5291515364657 57.5143421016752
58.2504668609397 58.4550760101675
57.9853489582819 57.9300619010168
57.7541445874846 57.6825574901017
56.4017007762454 56.0081295490102
57.5510568328736 57.840087154901
57.5434115498621 57.5701302154901
58.1340809649586 58.305515521549
58.6399079894876 58.8015734521549
59.1118304968463 59.2628320452155
58.0636858490539 57.7793161045216
57.5753225547162 57.4073532104522
58.2515403664149 58.4279485210452
57.2590332099245 56.9931005521045
56.4006587629773 56.1288156552105
56.0798412288932 55.9609947655211
55.354753768668 55.1357012765521
55.7629239306004 55.8576387276552
56.2338314791801 56.3778479727655
57.181059243754 57.4660973972766
56.8235095731262 56.7498563397277
57.7917022719379 58.0609634339728
59.7222257815814 60.3007300433973
61.5286270344744 62.1025921043397
63.3996108103423 63.991574110434
67.7767109431027 69.0865073110434
69.4876047829308 70.1074112311043
Year Month Attendance: Phantom Of The Opera
1997 1 1 48241
1997 2 2 47442
1997 3 3 61929
1997 4 4 49939
1997 5 5 49103
1997 6 6 62617
1997 7 7 48731
1997 8 8 63147
1997 9 9 44623
1997 10 10 47854
1997 11 11 58117
1997 12 12 49582
1998 1 13 48411
1998 2 14 49184
1998 3 15 62259
1998 4 16 48761
1998 5 17 58877
1998 6 18 48727
1998 7 19 47831
1998 8 20 59759
1998 9 21 42394
1998 10 22 48289
1998 11 23 58828
1998 12 24 49151
1999 1 25 58816
1999 2 26 44063
1999 3 27 45694
1999 4 28 48395
1999 5 29 57039
1999 6 30 47076
1999 7 31 45297
1999 8 32 59088
1999 9 33 40147
1999 10 34 55407
1999 11 35 43413
1999 12 36 44463
2000 1 37 52690
2000 2 38 45973
2000 3 39 48846
2000 4 40 61591
2000 5 41 44835
2000 6 42 44924
2000 7 43 53819
2000 8 44 44785
2000 9 45 37398
2000 10 46 50258
2000 11 47 41547
2000 12 48 53517
2001 1 49 45223
2001 2 50 44576
2001 3 51 45542
2001 4 52 60163
2001 5 53 42162
2001 6 54 43490
2001 7 55 54132
2001 8 56 45279
2001 9 57 33231
2001 10 58 36014
2001 11 59 34536
2001 12 60 48928
2002 1 61 39885
2002 2 62 42887
2002 3 63 55723
2002 4 64 39980
2002 5 65 36962
2002 6 66 50719
2002 7 67 45134
2002 8 68 46564
2002 9 69 43494
2002 10 70 37235
2002 11 71 35313
2002 12 72 52173
2003 1 73 36906 42935.2356110798
2003 2 74 32260 40309.2178502938
2003 3 75 44107 44224.8537890827
2003 4 76 43868 39585.6462380584
2003 5 77 39131 41163.4906406632
2003 6 78 55393 45184.5491014127
2003 7 79 46245 40280.1871128058
2003 8 80 56991 36937.4837095016
2003 9 81 34464 47554.9337022852
2003 10 82 42106 41455.3180323002
2003 11 83 50085 41617.5805167654
2003 12 84 41936 43901.1941010168
6029.23561107976 44267.9849041155 7361.98490411549
8049.2178502938 39675.1517025489 7415.15170254893
117.853789082721 44250.2610837673 143.26108376732
4282.3537619416 42946.1100376055 921.889962394496
2032.49064066321 44840.1549853851 5709.15498538506
10208.4508985873 41621.5610907536 13771.4389092464
5964.8128871942 44527.7291087798 1717.27089122019
20053.5162904984 51854.6521206274 5136.34787937256
13090.9337022852 34595.1175369316 131.117536931619
650.681967699835 42278.2809682267 172.28096822674
8467.41948323459 45367.3572109042 4717.64278909585
1965.19410101683 40550.6516513384 1385.34834866157

6742.68008196478 4048.57416341385