JULY 4, 2005

Evaluating the cement industry - porter's model

I have been trying to assess the cement industry on the five factor model and have been able to
come to the following evaluation

Entry barrier - Entry barriers are not too high in the industry. The technology is easily available. The
only constraint is capital which a big player will have access to. The key barriers would be
- economies of scale which would favor the bigger players like Birla group or Gujarat ambuja
- Brands are not so critical. price plays a big factor
- Cost advantage is critical. Companies which can have a sustainable low cost position will have a
competitive advantage. The major players in India do seem to have a similar cost position. Gujarat
ambuja has been able to sustain a low cost position and has been able to reward shareholders.

Supplier power - Has very low impact. Mainly limited to coal / power wherein the government pricing
would have an impact. But this would be common to all companies

Buyer power - Very low to no impact

substitute product - Almost no substitute product

Rivalry - High rivalry in the industry as the industry is still fragmented. Top 6 players have 60 %
capacity as there has been consolidation recently. however local players can have an impact on
pricing as cement as the industry depends on local supply. Cement being bulky is generally not
transported from long distance

In summary due to low brand strength, high fragmentation, low cost advantages (except in case of
some players ), the competitive intensity is high. Pricing is poor and depends on demand scenario.
If demand drops , the profitability suffers as the players cut price to run plants at full capacity (due to
high fixed costs).

Not an ideal industry for long term investment ( except if one can find a player with a sustainable
low cost position )
Posted by Rohit Chauhan Labels: Industry analysis

2 comments:
Anonymous said...
At the end of the day , cement ind profits are a function of EBITDA/ton and
realisations . Both have been impacted ..due to rising costs and a price
cap imposed by the govt . To boot this qtr is affected by the seasonality .
This sector is a trading call and cannot be LT investment call .
July 21, 2008

Anonymous said...
Read Cemex 10k: it makes interesting reading. Two factors seem key to
cement profitability
 1/ Running the manufacturing well (high efficiency, good delivery to
customers etc etc. Same factors as all factories)

2/ Energy efficiency.
July 24, 2008

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